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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 118
From: XdemonAlucard | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:29:25 PM | Message Detail
well i don't know, i think that wesker will win but i'm not sure how popular Vergil is. of course i'm also not so sure how popular wesker is either. but Wesker would be my pick.
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:29:46 PM | Message Detail
Luca > ghaleon

wesker > vergil

first match is the closer of the two.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 5/5 Next Pick: Vergil
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:29:55 PM | Message Detail
Wesker with 62%.
---
"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:30:38 PM | Message Detail
I'm surprised there are even 350 people on this board... o.0

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:31:00 PM | Message Detail
Well, Dante would be projected to beat Kefka 60/40. That's not an unusual proportion for a hero and his villain. It might be pretty close.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:32:45 PM | Message Detail
outback has one point, HaRRicH and Alucard post right after each other at all times!
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:33:01 PM | Message Detail
Hm, yeah. I took the value for Seph vs. 2k4 Link. That'll mess things up, I suppose. Maybe once I get off work I'll redo the numbers. Of course, if Link didn't gain as much from 2k3 to 2k4 as expected this throws things off as well.

Doing Seph = 44% (cn's # vs. 2k3 Link) puts MM at 34.16 making for a larger gap than previously accounted for. Of course, this coudl simply mean that MM is combination of SFF (though minimal, unlike previously thought) and Seph over performing on Cloud.

See, this is why I kept saying that I didn't trust my numbers too much. Knew I'd make a mistake somewhere.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:37:19 PM | Message Detail
Wait, 44% is vs. Cloud. I jsut wasn't meant to do this sort of number crunching, obviously. Or at least, not to put it out for all of you to see. Well, I'll work on it later. Not really a good time now.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: XdemonAlucard | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:38:45 PM | Message Detail
outback has one point, HaRRicH and Alucard post right after each other at all times!

ha! that's really weird. i just noticed that. strange.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:39:10 PM | Message Detail
From: XdemonAlucard | Posted: 5/8/2005 3:29:25 PM | Message Detail
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/8/2005 3:29:46 PM | Message Detail


I post after who at all times?


Anyways, I'd take Kefka over Vergil, since I'd barely take Wesker over Vergil and think Kefka'll beat Wesker.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:39:50 PM | Message Detail
It's kinda hard to say Link didn't gain when he faced Cloud directly in 2003 and 2004.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:40:25 PM | Message Detail
JESUS! LOL, I had to post that right after him. XdemonAlucard, I demand one of us take a 20 minute break so this doesn't get any creepier.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:41:27 PM | Message Detail
This has got to be the stupidest quibble ever to occur in a stats topic before it reached 250 posts.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: George Romero | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:41:55 PM | Message Detail
Kefka only got 51% on Pac-Man.
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Land of the Dead - June 24, 2005
*is M410123*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:42:07 PM | Message Detail
Unless ya wanna argue Cloud dropped, which won't be a winnable argument if Duke and Vyse have anything to say about it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: XdemonAlucard | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:44:37 PM | Message Detail
JESUS! LOL, I had to post that right after him. XdemonAlucard, I demand one of us take a 20 minute break so this doesn't get any creepier.

lol, this is really weird.
From: George Romero | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:45:33 PM | Message Detail
How is Wesker weaker than Pac-Man?
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Land of the Dead - June 24, 2005
*is M410123*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:47:27 PM | Message Detail
As I've said before, Cloud's loss would also be Link's gain. We don't know if Link went up or Cloud went down, now do we? Yes, there was a swing of 8000 some odd votes or so, and that's a big change, but we don't know for sure whose end that was on if we don't know for sure where each character stands. One match alone doesn't prove that one character or the other was holding steady.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:47:38 PM | Message Detail
2k4 makes it look like he doesn't have to be weaker than Pac-Man; Kefka held his own against Knuckles while Pac-Man got whipped by Luigi. Wesker could still fall inbetween there.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:48:35 PM | Message Detail
Yes, there was a swing of 8000 some odd votes or so

With an overall drop of 20K votes. That's gotta count for something.
---
"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: George Romero | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:49:12 PM | Message Detail
Yeah that's right. He did do ok against Knuckles.
---
Land of the Dead - June 24, 2005
*is M410123*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:49:14 PM | Message Detail
Final results from the Ridley/Diablo pre-poll:

Ridley: 192
Diablo: 171

Diablo was winning for a very long time before Ridley came back.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:50:41 PM | Message Detail
We don't know if Link went up or Cloud went down, now do we?

Eh, I don't see any reason to believe Cloud dropped. Duke Nukem and Vyse back up his 2003 numbers pretty well.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:52:31 PM | Message Detail
I still say you shouldn't be too surprised if there was an irregularity in Luigi/Pac-Man.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:54:10 PM | Message Detail
I don't see Pac Man's strength mattering anymore. Seriously, does anyone here think he's gonna get anything higher than teh 13-seed he got this summer ever again?
---
"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:57:04 PM | Message Detail
Pac-Man might not even make it back this summer, so we may never know.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:57:51 PM | Message Detail
Wait a minute there. What?

Cn's 2k3 stats estimated % vs. Cloud.
43 West 11 Vyse 18.43%
45 West 12 Duke Nukem 17.86%

2k4 % on Cloud (direct matchups)
41 Midgar 16 Duke Nukem 19.81%
45 Midgar 8 Vyse 18.59%

Vyse is about the same, and in Speh's half of the bracket so questionable in my mind), but the Duke isn't. It's fun and all to assume that being on a Milk carton helped Duke's % significantly, but I wouldn't fully buy into it, and there's a fair chance Cloud took a minor dip. In fact, until everyone became convinced that it was the milk carton's doing it was assumed that Cloud had dropped slightly and that Link was going to win by a number of people. Oh, and throw in with those numbers Samus if you want, though we do have reason to believe that there was something else involved with her we do know she did a lot better on Cloud than 2k3 stats alone would have told us.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:58:25 PM | Message Detail
Pac Man better be in Namco X Capcom, a statue aint gonna cut it for the little guy.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:02:25 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:02:34 PM | Message Detail
I don't see any reason to believe there was anything wrong with Cloud/Samus.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:03:59 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and since I have the stats handy for the work I did on assuming that Speh did overperform Vyse gained 1.66% on the "increased" Link. Since Vyse had no reason to increase, if Seph did indeed overperform that means Cloud didn't beat down like he should have.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:04:27 PM | Message Detail
That's why I added it as an aside.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:07:04 PM | Message Detail
I've got a possible theory about Cloud/Sephiroth that may or may not amount to something: maybe SFF matches are more likely to vary. What I mean is this:

-Have Master Chief/Crash Bandicoot face each other three times.
-Have Sonic/Zero face each other three times.
-Have Link/Ganondorf face each other three times.
-Have Cloud/Sephiroth face each other three times.

Perhaps it's just me, but I feel like Link/Ganon and Cloud/Sephiroth are more likely to have bigger ranges to vary with than MC/Crash or Sonic/Zero. Maybe Sephiroth just happened to hit the upper side of that range in 2k3 against Cloud?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:07:07 PM | Message Detail
I haven't the slightest idea of what the argument going around right now is.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:09:20 PM | Message Detail
Rigth now we're arguing about whether or not Link increased as much as it's been assumed and if Cloud held constant from 2k3 to 2k4.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:15:30 PM | Message Detail
Hmmmm....Sephiroth/Ramirez missed making the all-time top 25 for vote differential by 96 votes.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: XdemonAlucard | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:18:44 PM | Message Detail
I haven't the slightest idea of what the argument going around right now is.

wow, that's exactly how i feel. all i know is that it has something to do with the fact of how strange it is that cloud and sephiroth have faced each other multiple times in the gamefaqs contests. or something like that i think.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:18:49 PM | Message Detail
Regardless of Link going up or Cloud going down, though, you've all got to admit that Mega Man adjusted by Sephiroth being within half a percent of his actual (unadjusted) score on Link in 2k4 is noteworthy.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:19:50 PM | Message Detail
Something interesting to note: If Ghaleon is around the level of Laharl (which isn't THAT unreasonable), Vergil is just about equal to Kefka.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:20:06 PM | Message Detail
Hmmmm....Sephiroth/Ramirez missed making the all-time top 25 for vote differential by 96 votes.

You can thank my 98 "friends" for that.

>_>
---
"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:23:34 PM | Message Detail
You spent nearly 100 votes on Ramirez? Not that I'm against him, I voted for him after all (but only because it was nowhere near an even match), but that seems silly. Also, I assume you're not eligible for prizes, right? 'Cause IIRC Ceej basically implied that if you multi vote you wont get prizes.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:25:00 PM | Message Detail
If Ghaleon is around the level of Laharl (which isn't THAT unreasonable), Vergil is just about equal to Kefka.

Hmmm...I can definitely buy Laharl > Ghaleon > Luca, though I think Ghaleon would be closer to Luca than Laharl. Still though, that's good to know.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:26:03 PM | Message Detail
I would say Disgaea is probably more cult than Lunar, but maybe that's just me.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:27:22 PM | Message Detail
Vergil being on the level of Kefka isn't all that unreasonable either. Here's hoping for the best for Ghaleon.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: XdemonAlucard | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:29:39 PM | Message Detail
Lunar i think is more popular than disgaea. therefore laharl wouldn't win over ghaleon i think
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:30:33 PM | Message Detail
You spent nearly 100 votes on Ramirez? Not that I'm against him, I voted for him after all (but only because it was nowhere near an even match), but that seems silly. Also, I assume you're not eligible for prizes, right? 'Cause IIRC Ceej basically implied that if you multi vote you wont get prizes.

Nah, I was kidding. I don't need to cheat to win; I've got it all locked up. Unless Sephiroth doesn't get 64455 votes against Ganondorf, in which case I might have to do something about it ^.^
---
"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:33:06 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:33:24 PM | Message Detail
If Cloud was slightly weaker in 2k4 than 2k3, I'd blame the lower vote numbers and/or change of voter pool before I would go and say he "weakened" by loss of popularity. Which is why I think all of this number crunching is pointless. But I know most people are doing it just to humor themselves and for interesting discussion. I probably won't bother with it at all though....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:35:08 PM | Message Detail
I seriously can't wait for the Lavos/Mother Brain picture. It's going to be on the level of Tetris/Pong on the priceless scale.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 2:36:18 PM | Message Detail
I meant to ask this the other day when the division ended, but rank the eight Mushroom Division characters, strongest to weakest:

Bowser
Dr. Wily/Revolver Ocelot
Revolver Ocelot/Dr. Wily
Nemesis/Sigma
Sigma/Nemesis
Andross
Ultros
Pyramid Head

Just to clarify, methinks Dr. Wily will barely beat Revolver now and that Nemesis would barely beat Sigma, though both are toss-ups to me.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
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