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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 118
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:23:32 PM | Message Detail
Usually, yes. I think you can chalk up yesterday's low totals to voter indifference.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:27:43 PM | Message Detail
I skimmed what I had missed and there were a variety of things I will get back to later on. But one thing in particular, Liquid isn't going to triple Lavos. That's asking far too much. I don't even think he would triple Tenpenny.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:28:50 PM | Message Detail
Maybe saying he'd triple him was a bit too much. I didn't realize how weak Lavos would have to be for that to happen.

70% isn't out of the question, however.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Lopen | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:31:12 PM | Message Detail
Are you implying Lavos would beat Tenpenny? I'm not so sure of that...
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:32:13 PM | Message Detail
I'm entirely sure there was a poll like that. When is another matter entirely. I think it was before or after 2k3. I'm sure 'Flake or Ulti will remember.

Wait...TRE?


AFAIK CJayC has never done a PotD regarding bracket voting. The closest thing I can think of are the polls regarding how honestly people vote in PotDs.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1516
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=801
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=461
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=100
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:32:17 PM | Message Detail
I stated earlier in this topic that I wouldn't be so sure who's stronger between Lavos and Tenpenny.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:32:48 PM | Message Detail
Guys, I think I figured out how to do simple problems in the X-stats finally, so, here's my first test I'm goin' to do; I'm gonna compare all the characters who have had a series or game named after them...to Kefka 2k4 (for my rookie-ass purposes, this is assuming Mega Man was correctly adjusted):

Crono - 71.62% ( Crono, Chrono...close enough to mention here)
Mega Man - 70.53%
Mario - 69.50%
Sonic - 68.40%
Zero - 66.51% (assuming MM/Zero was normal)
Zelda - 62.53% (assuming Zelda would be 28.30% in 2k4)
Kirby - 60.15%
Yoshi - 57.95%
Donkey Kong - 55.18% (assuming a steady 2k3 DK gets 23.66% in 2k4)
Luigi - 53.81%
Donkey Kong - 51.71% (2k4-stats; I don't think this was adjusted at all)
Bomberman - 49.15% (assuming Cloud/Squall was correctly adjusted)
Viewtiful Joe - 46.28%
Duke Nukem: 45.00%
Max Payne - 43.25% (assuming MM/Zero was normal)
Crash Bandicoot - 34.84% (doesn't take into account MC's help from halo.bungie.org next round)
Jak - 40.55% (unadjusted; if Auron's adjusted by Scorpion 2k3, he's noticably higher)
Conker - 38.59%
Pac-Man - 34.94% (funny how that one works out, eh?)
Earthworm Jim - 28.88%
Ratchet - 23.69%

Note many of them's been in games outside of their main series. Also note how Duke Nukem could make a respectable showing against Kefka, and he's the top PC character on this list; you could say the cup is half-full or half-empty with Duke though, depending on your stance. I hope this'll help some in bein' able to compare Diablo to somebody in that list.

Just thought I'd share that while practicin' some of my X-stats magic, heh.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:32:59 PM | Message Detail
Are you implying Lavos would beat Tenpenny? I'm not so sure of that...

Yes, I would be one to take Lavos over Tenpenny.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:33:50 PM | Message Detail
Hmmm....According to the most recent poll, it does more favors to be on bottom than on top, unlike we've said.

Yeah, yeah, they both get less than a percent, but whatever.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:35:19 PM | Message Detail
Going 65/35 against Pac-Man a year later practically screams that something happened with one or both of them in 2004. That's just too big of a gap to create in a year.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:36:45 PM | Message Detail
TRE's polls give MH an edge Kuja can't compete with...ahem.

I'd take Lavos over Tenpenny too; I'll side with HM there.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: rafiki123 | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:47:29 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 1:48:17 PM | Message Detail
Wrong topic for that kinda stuff, buddy.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:13:03 PM | Message Detail
BTW Did anybody else noticed that Chrono Trigger was released in 1995 and this poll number is 1995? Not quite as cool as it would be if the contest was delayed by 4 days...
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:17:22 PM | Message Detail
So Albedo/Bison is the Poll of Lavos?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:22:07 PM | Message Detail
And Ridley/Diablos will be the Y2K poll: The one where everyone expects chaos and it turns out to be nothing at all.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:27:18 PM | Message Detail
Random observation: Poll 2101 is set for August 16, unless I miscounted. That leaves an outside shot for it to include CATS if he's a 15 seed, since based on last year, SC2K5 will start on August 1.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:34:23 PM | Message Detail
Aw, Lavos vs. Mother Brain should have switched divisions with Albedo vs. Bison. Poll of Lavos would have been awesome.

And while this match doesn't bode well for Sin, remember that Mother Brain is also a "I don't give a crap" villain that we know next to nothing about, so we really can't make any guesses as to how strong Lavos is at this point. The only reason Lavos could be losing votes due to the "don't care" factor is if people dislike Lavos enough as a villain to anti-vote him. Otherwise, this could just be showing us "Metroid is strong."

In any case, this match makes me feel better about Ridley over Diablo, but worse about Sin over Robotnik.

I think Lavos could take Tenpenny easy, but we'll see next round.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20785532 - The GameFAQs Fanfiction Project, based off of the Spring Contest!
From: andaca | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:43:12 PM | Message Detail
Question - not even sure if he would be allowed in this contest, but how do you think Dark Link would do?
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Honorary Spring 2005 Winner - Kerrigan.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:44:25 PM | Message Detail
In any case, this match makes me feel better about Ridley over Diablo, but worse about Sin over Robotnik.

Yep on both counts...not much of a yep, but still a yep. I have Robotnik > Sin, so that's making me feel a lil' better 'bout it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:50:36 PM | Message Detail
Question - not even sure if he would be allowed in this contest, but how do you think Dark Link would do?

Anywhere between mid-level fodder and competing with Sephiroth for third place. If the "Clone factor" is really what's making Shadow and Liquid Snake such strong competitors, Dark Link will fall closer to the top of that range then the bottom.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/9/2005 2:54:31 PM | Message Detail
TRE found those polls before I could, though I think that if there were ever an actual poll involving bracket voting, someone would have remembered it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:03:16 PM | Message Detail
A bracket voting poll would be silly. We've already established less than half of the people who vote even fill out a bracket, and with only 25,000 brackets this time, coming from maybe 23,000 unique users, you would be either limiting the poll to about 1/3 of the normal polling population, or having 'i don't make a bracket' take up some 60% of the vote.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:09:26 PM | Message Detail
I dont' see how 1/3 of the voting population being bracket makers can be seen as insignificant in any way. That being said, bracket voters would only be significant in close matches. Most of the time, they don't need to vote for their brackets in the first place. And in the event of a close match, I'm fairly certain that most people would have the character they like better in the first place. At least that's how it is with me. The ONLY close match where the character I liked better WASN'T the one I voted for was Frog vs. Master Chief.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:10:39 PM | Message Detail
Heh, you can throw out any factor in Frog/Master Chief and it would've made a difference.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:13:39 PM | Message Detail
I could swear there had been one of those. Well, majority is against me, so I yield. Can't quite shake the feeling, though.
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http://img163.echo.cx/img163/8571/wowscrnshot0122051856460rr.jpg
http://picturebin.com/mp3/Captain_Placeholder.wav
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:14:49 PM | Message Detail
Frog had TJF, it wasn't fair!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: futuresuperstar | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:15:14 PM | Message Detail
Diablo shall defeat Ridley.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20863986
Drop a vote in the Create a Character #4, people!

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---<3---
SpC2K5 Statistics: 6/6 --- Lavos vs Mother Brain
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed ... Coming Soon ...
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:16:57 PM | Message Detail
Frog won because of the beastiality factor!
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:19:54 PM | Message Detail
CJay didn't shut the poll down at exactly midnight!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:20:45 PM | Message Detail
Nonono, 1/3 is the extreme maximum that bracket makers could make of the voting public. And it is only that high if both a) All 25,000 brackets are made by unique users (already known not to be true, because I made a zero and a real bracket) and b) every single bracket maker votes in a match. When you take into account some people have over 50 IDs, who is to say they did not make a bracket with every one of them just to say one of their IDs made it onto the top 50? And we know at least a couple hundred zero bracket attempts are out there, with the overwhelming majority of those being alt. accounts of an actual bracket.

Between non-unique users and bracket-making non-voters, I would think no more than 15,000 bracket makers vote in any given match, and when you consider that any match of any worth is nothing going to a ridiculous difference in bracket favorites, you are looking at maybe 1,000 votes either way, and we have had very few matches decided but that many votes.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:20:49 PM | Message Detail
I have a feeling that Liquid/Tenpenny will be the lamest picture yet. I'm not a big fan of MGS's "melting" character artwork, and Tenpenny's got nothing special in the way of pictures.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:21:52 PM | Message Detail
...and my 15,000 is from this particular contest. The past ones, with bigger bracket turnout, likely had a higher turnout, but probably in a similar % ratio (the way I theorized it above).

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:22:15 PM | Message Detail
Whatever man... stop being ignorant. We all know Frog benefitted from Green SFF....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:22:56 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief got anti-human voted!
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:25:20 PM | Message Detail
THF (The Helmet Factor) cost MC the match; why else do you think EA is hated so much here?!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: cyko | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:25:34 PM | Message Detail
for what it's worth, i would've taken everyone in the division except Ramirez and Ghaleon over Tenpenny. yep, i would've taken Lavos, Vergil, AND Mother Brain over Tenpenny.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:26:47 PM | Message Detail
Mother Brain's tough for me to agree with.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:33:12 PM | Message Detail
All right, let's play the prediction percentage game.

Vergil had more bracket support than I thought he would. I'm going to say Lavos has 66.7% of the brackets on its side.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: swirldude | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:35:22 PM | Message Detail
Simultaneously, everyone left this topic and started posting in 119, without giving this topic its proper sendoff.

Fo Shame.
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O, flesh, flesh, how art thou fishified! ~Mercutio
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:35:43 PM | Message Detail
63%. With there being more Metroid games, I think that'll keep Lavos from doubling MB in bracket-support.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:37:38 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah...CATS: you owe him your vote.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:38:37 PM | Message Detail
The only person I would vote CATS over in this contest is Ultros. That ought to say something about how much I hate that octopus.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:39:29 PM | Message Detail
Think about the match so close he brought it to us twice though; Ryu H./Jill was great.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:39:38 PM | Message Detail
The only time I would vote for CATS is if he were up against Sephiroth.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:40:26 PM | Message Detail
Hayabusa/Jill was probably the dullest close match ever.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:41:08 PM | Message Detail
^_^


KB
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:41:21 PM | Message Detail
Hayabusa/Jill was SORTA dull, but the appearance of CATS made it awesome.

Also, it was 2k4. What else did we have?
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20785532 - The GameFAQs Fanfiction Project, based off of the Spring Contest!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:41:27 PM | Message Detail
Lavos > Your Favorite Villain.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/9/2005 3:41:29 PM | Message Detail
Super Mario 64 deserved to be at the top of Ulti's list, twice.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
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