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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 117
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:50:49 PM | Message Detail
2k3 South/East XSt (Assuming Seph = 42.4)

Sephiroth - 42.4 (+0.00)
Mega Man - 32.92 (-0.53)
Mario - 32.56 (+2.21)
Crono - 32.53 (+4.65)
Solid Snake - 30.62 (-2.88)
Shadow - 29.24 (-6.79)
Ryu - 26.17 (+3.67)
Zelda - 25.84 (N/A)
Dante - 24.07 (+1.42)
Knuckles - 23.8 (+1.36)
Alucard - 23.51 (+4.23*)
Kirby - 22.47 (-1.85)
Tommy - 21.83 (+0.08)
DK - 21.63 (+0.33)
Yuna - 21.27 (N/A)
Wario - 20.53 (N/A)
Lara - 19.49 (-5.58)
Ramza - 19.03 (N/A)
Bomberman - 16.71 (+0.55)
Vyse - 16.26 (-1.66)
Duke Nukem - 15.74 (+3.35)
Raziel - 15.26 (N/A**)
Kite - 15.18 (N/A)
Max Payne - 14.7 (+1.85)
Kekfa - 13.72 (+5.37)
Gordon - 13.53 (-0.13)
Pac-Man - 13.46 (-2.73)
Ryo - 10.76 (-2.14)
Raiden - 10.48 (N/A)
Tom Nook - 9.23 (N/A)
Olimar - 7.54 (N/A)
Resetti - 7.27 (N/A)

*Assuming a constant Ganon
** -0.68 assuming Kain = Raziel.

Made a few mistakes previously. As I expected of myself, I'm not too great at doing all those numbers one after the other. Fixed, to the best of my ability, all the mistakes, though if someone would be so kind as to double check my work (if anyone has the time) I'd appreciate it. Analysis in the next post.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:54:24 PM | Message Detail
For shame; it made me feel more confident when he got that pic, but I know I'd be mad as hell if someone I really like in these contests who's weak yet has a chance to win a match got a picture that sucks, whether it was against my bracket or not. If that ever happened to Conker if he got a shot at someone like Vyse, I'd be making petitions too...and death-threats...

...talking about Conker, I played a demo of Conker: Live and Reloaded (I think that's the right name) the other day. It started me off in the Saving Private Ryan spoof at the beach...the controls were a lil' iffy, but otherwise, it's the same great game with some very nice graphics for the ten minutes I played.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:08:01 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man ends up very close to his 2k4 number

Mario and Crono raise, Crono is for obvious reasons, who knows about Mario.

Snake takes a sizable drop. All things considered, not that surprising. Knuckles told us as much without all this extra work.

Shadow makes a huge drop for over performing on Mario for being a Sonic proxy. He also comes off looking about 5% weaker than expected in 2k3, meaning that his drop with Tidus wouldn't be proportionate and therefore would be coincidental.

Ryu makes a fair gain, but he did have a new game right before his match with Sonic. No, I wouldn't bet on it being that significant, but it's not a huge jump anyway.

Dante makes for a minimal gain in 2k4. This was, of course, one of the aforementioned mistakes I made. Dante doesn't actually move much.

Knux looks to have gained a little (SH, maybe), Kirby looks to have lost a little. All within standard margin of error. Not to mention Kirby may have lost a little due to Squall being SFF'd by Cloud...

Alucard seems to take a big jump forward, since he's the only one I used the SFF adjusted bracket for (unadjusted was way too far off). Chances are Ganon is overrated in 2k3 (explaining Tidus' "drop")

Tommy is almost unchanged. Good sign for me. So is DK, though that shouldn't be a surprise.

Lara makes a huge loss, but we already knew that.

Bomberman makes a minimal gain, he did have a new game before the contest. Which, considering how often you need an FAQ for a bomberman game, obviously wouldn't change things anyway.

Vyse sees little change, all things considered. Within the typical standard margin of error and more than fair if you assume there is some small group that may fall into RPG SFF (a dangerous concept to contemplate).

Duke makes a big gain, but we've always thought that the "Duke Milkem" was a big joke vote gaining factor.

If Raziel and Kain are equal, or very close, then Kain's match would have fallen well within standard margin of error.

Max Payne makes a small increase after a new game. May have been a larger increase, but I'm not going to take the time to think about MM/Zero SFF here. Either way, he's up a little but not much.

Kefka makes a huge jump, SFF'd by Crono anyone?

Gordon is nearly unchanged, of course. Always a loser, that he is.

Pac-Man takes a sizable dive. Link-Yoshi-Luigi SFF chain, anyone?

Ryo takes a slightly larger drop, but suffers from something similar to Pac-Man. Chances are he'd have dropped a little on his own without any possible Yoshi/Link SFF.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:24:35 PM | Message Detail
I still don't buy Shadow being significantly over-rated; I think being a Sonic proxy helps him in plenty more matches than just ones against Mario, and I doubt facing Mario makes the proxy THAT much more effective.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:57:55 PM | Message Detail
Almost match time...

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: Nevest | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:58:52 PM | Message Detail
weeeeeee!!
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Altaria Mist - 13 Me/Mo Team GameFAQs-
I've been known to locate certain things from time to time..- Red
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:00:51 AM | Message Detail
Vergil seems to have the early lead.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:03:15 AM | Message Detail
Vergil 68.42% 26
Ghaleon 31.58% 12
TOTAL VOTES 38

Sephiroth had 97.41% of the brackets...Sephiroth also had 97.37% against Sly Cooper, for what it's worth.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:03:21 AM | Message Detail
Vergil begins with an early 60-40 split. It may not end that way, but it's enough to allow me to get some sleep. Toodles.

And I would laugh at those supporting Ghaleon, but not when he has a picture like that.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:03:59 AM | Message Detail
Vergil is over 60% at this point. I'm starting to wonder if I was a bit conservative with my Oracle prediction.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:04:10 AM | Message Detail
Most of the people staying up this late would most likely favor Ghaleon so Vergil's looking impressive.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:05:17 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
4------7287-----99.1628928
3------9799-----98.3161547
2------5909-----96.5814859
1------1590-----94.0251572
0------163------26.9938650

Nearly 100% success rate for everybody except the 0s. 27% of them got it "right". Favorite brackets which just happened to like the characters that lost the last 4 matches best?

The Top 50 did have a 100% success rate. Nobody fell off today.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:06:58 AM | Message Detail
Yep. Ghaleon's best shot at doing something would be around this time. Vergil just seems to be putting it to an end from the get go. It's safe to say that Ghaleon won't be winning any other timeframe vote.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:11:54 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, Ghaleon's taking it hard in the timeframe he's suppose to "win". I really wish I didn't scare myself a lil' earlier today with the match about Vergil being pretty weak...but I have still called Ghaleon a future choker since he got in.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:14:49 AM | Message Detail
Vergil 61.1% 611
Ghaleon 38.9% 389
TOTAL VOTES 1000

1,000-vote sample, it's 'bout 61-39. Shut him down, Vergil.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:14:55 AM | Message Detail
I trust you all can vote for Lavos tomorrow? ...Please?

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:16:27 AM | Message Detail
I haven't decided who I'll vote for tomorrow...right now, probably Mother Brain, but we'll see.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:17:35 AM | Message Detail
http://img11.echo.cx/img11/8686/lavosa33dj.gif

You are now compelled to vote Lavos. =p

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:18:44 AM | Message Detail
IT'S A FIESTA!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:19:18 AM | Message Detail
I'm votin' Mother brain.

Did Lavos strike fear into Smon Belmont and Bobby Hill as Mega man? I think not.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:25:14 AM | Message Detail
I really wish tomorrow was Lavos VS Metroid; that one would have a lil' more room for interest than Mother Brain will make...

...but let's assume I'm wrong here. If MB makes Lavos sweat, does that help Ridley against Diablo?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:26:17 AM | Message Detail
I've never seen the connection between Mother Brain and Ridley. How one performs shouldn't affect how the other will do. There honestly isn't anyone who actually cares for Mother Brain.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:27:24 AM | Message Detail
Mother Brain and Ridley are both going out on the first round. Metroid may be popular, but I really don't think many people like it for its villians.
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Current Match Prediction -- Vergil vs. Ghaleon
Spring 2005 Contest -- 5/5 points
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:27:40 AM | Message Detail
They why was Mother Brain in Captain N and not Ridley?
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:31:37 AM | Message Detail
Vergil 62.15% 1243
Ghaleon 37.85% 757
TOTAL VOTES 2000

There's the 2,000-total. With that, I'm off to bed. G-nite ya'll.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:32:23 AM | Message Detail
My 68.5% prediction for Vergil is lookin' shaky.

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Beauty is in the eye of the beer-holder.
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/8/2005 12:33:39 AM | Message Detail
With the Day vote Vergil might eliminate fodder with ease just like his brother.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:09:54 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, this one is definitely over. Ghaleon is almost down by a thousand before the day vote even arrives. I'm glad I changed my bracket to Vergil, but disappointed that Ghaleon lost. =|

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:12:27 AM | Message Detail
Cult characters are cult characters, only crap like Playstation platformers and Max Payne like guys rank below them.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:43:24 AM | Message Detail
At 1:30am PST
Sephiroth vs Ramirez- 3971 votes total

At 1:30am PST
Vergil vs Ghaleon- 4476 votes total

Why is this match so frontloaded? Assuming it isn't and it shatters the Sephiroth vs Ramirez vote total, what caused the sudden surge?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Starion | Posted: 5/8/2005 1:45:29 AM | Message Detail
It's Sunday. That's to be expected.
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A soda a day invites tooth decay.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/8/2005 3:33:51 AM | Message Detail
I'm shocked that so many people picked up their first point yesterday. Surely anyone with 0 through 4 matches must be a zero bracket attempt? Ah well, 119 and counting, may be in double figures after this one.
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Jon Thomson - 5/5, today: Vergil, tomorrow: Lavos
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: voltch | Posted: 5/8/2005 4:34:37 AM | Message Detail
i've been wondering if resident evil 4 had not come for about another year.
would wesker still be able to pound luca with ease or would it be closer?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/8/2005 4:48:06 AM | Message Detail
Hmm...

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/jonthomson/zerobracketattempt.jpg

Is this incorrect green colouring happening with anyone else, or is it magically recognising that I'm going for zero?

Of course, you'll need to log into a bracket with a match wrong to notice...
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Jon Thomson - 5/5, today: Vergil, tomorrow: Lavos
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 5/8/2005 5:19:41 AM | Message Detail
Cult characters are cult characters, only crap like Playstation platformers and Max Payne like guys rank below them.

I think that Alucard would disagree with you...
From: cyko | Posted: 5/8/2005 6:12:51 AM | Message Detail
i honestly don't understand why so many people out there are blaming their Ghaleon pick on listening to this board..... who were they listening to? Vergil was the heavy board favorite.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: cyko | Posted: 5/8/2005 6:15:43 AM | Message Detail
on a side note, i had Vergil pegged at 63% before the constipated Ghaleon pic was released. i knew i should of raised my pick after seeing that picture, lol.

well, i still voted for Ghaleon out of pity. poor guy.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579093
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 6:44:12 AM | Message Detail
Imodium Ghaleon may be the next big pic fad, so all is not lost. I don't believe pics have any influence whatsoever, so I think Vergil's merely exposing Ghaleon for the loser I knew he was all along.

From: cyko | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:12:51 AM | #436
i honestly don't understand why so many people out there are blaming their Ghaleon pick on listening to this board..... who were they listening to? Vergil was the heavy board favorite.

Agreed... although Ghaleon was the third most popular round 1 upset pick, behind Diablo and Sin - the only two anyone should have ever considered in the first place.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 04/04 - Matches: 04/04 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Vergil
From: voltch | Posted: 5/8/2005 7:54:20 AM | Message Detail
after seeing this
http://img105.echo.cx/img105/2307/ghaleon1kk.jpg
i understand why people say ghaleon looks constipated
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 8:27:46 AM | Message Detail
Vergil's pushing hard for the doubling. Ghaleon's goin' DOWN...hard.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:15:01 AM | Message Detail
The results of this match make me physically ill.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:15:49 AM | Message Detail
What do you think Vergil's gonna get on Sephiroth, guys?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:18:25 AM | Message Detail
Why, Ghaleon, why?! Either he's extremely weak (very likely) or Vergil actually has some strength (unlikely).
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:20:07 AM | Message Detail
What do you think Vergil's gonna get on Sephiroth, guys?

If he's *really* lucky, he'll only get doubled.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:21:53 AM | Message Detail
^Wow....that would make him stronger then Auron.

If SFF wasn't involved, of course....
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:24:45 AM | Message Detail
Hey Har, in the Live and Reloaded videos I've seen, it looked like there were more Tediz to kill in the War chapter. Does it look that way from the demo, or was I just misinterpreting the videos?

Man, it's a shame I don't have an X-Box. I'll have to borrow someone's. It's also a shame that the Great Mighty Poo couldn't get into this contest. Imagine the hilarity if GMP had been in a match near constipated Ghaleon...
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:25:07 AM | Message Detail
You know what I just noticed?

All seven admirals in Skies of Arcadia have Spanish last names (though...Ramirez appears to be Ramirez's only name.)
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:30:16 AM | Message Detail
"There honestly isn't anyone who actually cares for Mother Brain."

I do. I nominated her, and I'd vote her over Ridley in an honest fashion.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Tai | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:45:11 AM | Message Detail
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:35:36 PM | Message Detail
You **** piece of ***-kissing, self-preaching ****! Sephy is my hero dammit, and you owe me an apology for mocking him like that. Just cause I ran around my yard shouting about the Planet dont mean...oops...no!!!! Dont tell anyone! -Tai *giggles..the truth is out!*


Um, no.

I'm an anti-Square cronie...if you're going to lie and ass-kiss your own column, the least you can do is make it something I'd say. I can't really say I found that funny.

Now, back to on-topic:

Why, Ghaleon, why?! Either he's extremely weak (very likely) or Vergil actually has some strength (unlikely).

Both.

Ghaleon's just weak. Imodium does that to some people. All that time using the toilet...and then having to go out and fight..it's quite sad. :-( I wonder how the FanFiction project will make/made that match...lol.'

Oh yeah, I forgot the obscurity in Lunar 2.

Then Vergil being Dante's twin brother and all..yeah, too bad for Ghaleon. CJayC is dictating this contest.

What do you think Vergil's gonna get on Sephiroth, guys?

Lower than Dante? X_x

Well..I'll do an estimate that Vergil will get around 26%.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (149 Signs!)
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:47:13 AM | Message Detail
Mother Brain isn't really a "she", unless you're talking about Captain N.

It's just a computer with organic components.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
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