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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 117
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:16:32 PM | Message Detail
Ack, noticed two typos and your advice to just post one picture. New link:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20845421
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:18:14 PM | Message Detail
It's worth a shot, but the odds of him changing it are extremely slim.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:20:01 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it was tried before with Lettuce Kefka and it was a failure. Poopoo Ghaleon gets to rejoin the dancing vegetable into infamy.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 04/04 - Matches: 04/04 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Vergil
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:23:44 PM | Message Detail
Tales of Symphonia is pretty cool, though it pales in comparison to Skies of Arcadia.

This is true.
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SpC2k5: 4/4 Next up: Sephiroth, Vergil, Lavos, Liquid Snake
*is Janus5000*
From: Yesmar | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:24:28 PM | Message Detail
Chances are the pic won't be changed considering Lettuce Kefka was never changed, but on the other hand Mega Man Vs. Ms. Pac-Man had a picture changed way back in 2002.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:25:30 PM | Message Detail
Megaman's pic was only changed in his profile. The pic wasn't even up when that happened. Remember?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 04/04 - Matches: 04/04 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Vergil
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:28:03 PM | Message Detail
I doubt it would avail much of anything. Ghaleon's sunk. It's pretty obvious that Ceej has Vergil winning in his bracket, and he's trying to seal the deal.

I seriously doubt CJayC cares that much about his bracket - more likely he just didn't care enough to find a good picture. I agree that petition probably won't work, but it's worth a try.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:28:59 PM | Message Detail
I was being facetitious with that comment. If that was the case, he would've left Sephiroth-Ramirez picture-less.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:38:14 PM | Message Detail
Making a petition is one thing, but having him see it before the next match starts is quite another.
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"I am becoming one with the planet." - Sephiroth
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:40:47 PM | Message Detail
And then there's the whole gettin'-him-convinced-to-take-action part, too. Noble cause, but don't get your hopes high on it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:42:17 PM | Message Detail
http://ghaleoncraps.ytmnd.com/

Lettuce Kefka, meet Immodium Ghaleon.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:42:25 PM | Message Detail
We probably could have made a difference had we started the petition earlier. I think it's different from Kefka's case. With Kefka, there weren't that many pics of Kefka to use outside of his sprite (final boss pic maybe?). With Ghaleon, there are many, MANY pics that CJayC could have used. I think it's obvious that he did it on purpose. I didn't really even know who Ghaleon was... I do recognize his pics though. And even I can say that the pic used is crap! (literally)
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:42:48 PM | Message Detail
They're not; but at least I tried to do something.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:43:23 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:44:57 PM | Message Detail
Just doing a Google Image search and that pic doesn't even come up. It's almost as if he went out of his way... ><
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*Tabs on your shoulder and points* My tuba!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:48:00 PM | Message Detail
That ytmnd is topped by few-to-none.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:48:15 PM | Message Detail
I saw the full body pic using Yahoo Image Search... it's at least tolerable then....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:48:24 PM | Message Detail
Oh, there it is.

http://www.rpgamer.com/games/lunar/ltss/graphics/screen/ghaleon16.jpg

This one made me laugh, he could have at least used this funny looking one...

http://www.rpgamer.com/games/lunar/ltss/graphics/screen/ghaleon9.jpg

XD
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*Tabs on your shoulder and points* My tuba!
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:48:32 PM | Message Detail
This is the image that was used:
http://www.rpgamer.com/games/lunar/ltss/graphics/screen/ghaleon16.jpg
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"I am becoming one with the planet." - Sephiroth
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/7/2005 7:48:56 PM | Message Detail
Heh, too slow.
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"I am becoming one with the planet." - Sephiroth
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:24:29 PM | Message Detail
Damn you, Ceej... screwing up the pic for one of the better villains who was *already* doomed to lose anyway... my only consolation is that there's no way to make Albedo look anything less than awesome.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:35:36 PM | Message Detail
The people have spoken...

The fans have demanded it...

The kiddies have tried to stop it...protesting to Ceej with a bogus petition...

No it is not a re-release of The Combatribes...it is...

Steve Illumina Speaks

You know it, noobs! It is the irreverent column that mocks the contest that geeky gamers live breathe and talk in the school cafeterias about for weeks. It can be fav games...it can be fav characters...or villains...or heroes...or joke bosses...or box art. It dont much matter...nerds will flock to it like fat kids to Whoppers. Now, lets get a move on, shall we!

Continuing with the Garland 'Jenova' Division...

(4)Vergil vs (5)Ghaleon
AKA: Dibiase's Right Hand Man vs A Misspelled Spanish Vessel

Steve's Pick: Vergil
Newbie Pick: Vergil by default
Kiddie Pick: Winnie the Pooh & Tigger Too!
Non Gamer Pick: Neither

Comments: We continue this tourney with what could be the closest match yet...or a ho-hum blowout. That being the pride of 2 series going at it in a knockdown drag out affair......Devil May Cry & Lunar

This match is easy to call if you consider one thing...the 'RPG Prevalence Factor' See, my little xtats weaned noobs, this Factor, of which a patent has been registered through the US patent office alongside my infamous 'Theory of Frogability' and the loved or hated Crono quote... (Yah, u regulars know it...and the first to post it after reading this gets a prize!)

OK back to the RPG Prevalence Factor, or RPGPF. THis is a measure of how common and loved an RPG series is, which translates into how well it will perform from a general standpoint against other series from a general standpoint.

Final Fantasy leads the RPGPF, this means generally, an FF character will defeat all other series characters. As for Lunar, it does not fare too well on this measure...nestled in well below the Suikoden, Xenosaga, and Tales series, but above the Wild Arms and Dark Cloud series. This bodes for trouble for the G-Man come Sunday...

Editor's Note: Go this little nastygram sent to me in response to yesterday's column: "You **** piece of ***-kissing, self-preaching ****! Sephy is my hero dammit, and you owe me an apology for mocking him like that. Just cause I ran around my yard shouting about the Planet dont mean...oops...no!!!! Dont tell anyone! -Tai *giggles..the truth is out!*

And that is all I have to say for today. Tune in tomorrow for Lavos vs Mother Brain...a decently discussed yet predictable matchup...meanwhile the Sage of Board 8 will keep racking up the points :)

Quotes: Vergil: "Everybody's got a price..." Ghaleon: "Umm, I was in that game..uh...u know the one...it has to do with the moon's orbit...yah thats it"
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SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:39:13 PM | Message Detail
"Um...since when does something without any real evidence become "clear"? Seriously now."

You're the guy that told me Samus wasn't SFF'd in 2k3 because her score "fits" didn't you? Do the math for MM assuming Sephiroth overperformed and that it was correct in either 2k2 or 2k4. Go ahead and do it and try to tell me that it doesn't "fit". You can't possibly say that it doesn't.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: creativename | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:39:45 PM | Message Detail
Has anyone gotten a chance to test RPGuy's calculator on their computer?
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www.SC2K5.com
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:43:51 PM | Message Detail
Well, at least there's some good news for Ramirez, I guess. He's passed Pyramid Head's vote total, so he won't be at the bottom of the ladder in that department.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:43:54 PM | Message Detail
You're the guy that told me Samus wasn't SFF'd in 2k3 because her score "fits" didn't you? Do the math for MM assuming Sephiroth overperformed and that it was correct in either 2k2 or 2k4. Go ahead and do it and try to tell me that it doesn't "fit". You can't possibly say that it doesn't.

What?

As I said already, things are totally one-sided in showing Link increased from 2K3 to 2K4. Last year I posted a very robust analysis on showing why this was the case, though I don't recall all the specifics. But if you have minimization of strength variation among all characters as your framework for judging whether a single character increased, then it is clear that Link increased. The maximum likelihood estimate of his increase was about 6.6% geometric, and a significant positive increase was robust to varying of assumptions.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:44:54 PM | Message Detail
Well, Chichiri's saying that Mega Man's unadjusted 2004 value against Link gets nearly the same percentage against 2004 Sephiroth as he did in 2003.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:45:59 PM | Message Detail
As I said already, things are totally one-sided in showing Link increased from 2K3 to 2K4. Last year I posted a very robust analysis on showing why this was the case, though I don't recall all the specifics. But if you have minimization of strength variation among all characters as your framework for judging whether a single character increased, then it is clear that Link increased. The maximum likelihood estimate of his increase was about 6.6% geometric, and a significant positive increase was robust to varying of assumptions.

What...you...say?

And this is from an engineering major.... (-_-)
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:46:28 PM | Message Detail
Just beat Fire Emblem Gaiden...does anyone know of a translation patch for Fire Emblem 3 (Mystery of the Emblem) that's over 5% complete?

NOTE: I am *not* asking for the ROM, as I'm currently playing the game, just a translation that probably doesn't exist.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:53:14 PM | Message Detail
Leonhart:
Well, Chichiri's saying that Mega Man's unadjusted 2004 value against Link gets nearly the same percentage against 2004 Sephiroth as he did in 2003.

You can't judge things mainly be one-to-one relationships, you have to judge by the framework. Especially since Link was the 2K4 winner, and he affects everybody.

therealmnm:
What...you...say?

Since Link was the winner, the way to judge his strength variance would be to see how everyone else's strength varied relative to him. With certain assumptions gone into here:

http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

The value that minimized strength variance among other characters as a whole was that Link increased by 6.6%. In other words, Link increased 6.6% relative to everyone else. That's just one estimate; you can vary which characters you include in the optimization (where by optimization, I mean the minimizing of the sum of squared strength variances from 2K3 to 2K4 for selected characters), and it alters the results. But it doesn't tend to alter the result much; thus, it is robust.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:54:45 PM | Message Detail
Is there anyway to get the text to wrap on that page? It's annoying to keep scrolling left and right.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:59:16 PM | Message Detail
I added a div tag to scrunch up the text, it should be better now.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:11:13 PM | Message Detail
And I'm saying some of the biggest drops are actually do due Sephiroth over performing on Cloud. What's ya point, buddy-boy? Besides, I didn't say he didn't gain, I said he didn't gain quite by the leaps and bounds that we have as of yet suspected. Though I'm quick to use strong words, this time it's you who has taken the argument to an extreme. Read what I wrote carefully, since you've quoted it, and you'll realize I said nothing about Link not gaining, just not gaining the huge jump we thought.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:12:40 PM | Message Detail
I added a div tag to scrunch up the text, it should be better now.

Much better.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:23:10 PM | Message Detail
creativename -- I did some digging, and I think I figured out what's screwed up when you try and run my XSC. Change the .bat file (or type in manually from the command prompt, if you prefer) to read:

java -cp . XS

There are spaces between java and -cp, -cp and ., and . and XS. (Does that make it easier or harder to understand? Eh, this is what copy/paste is for :) ). What that does is set the classpath ("cp") to the current directory ("."), and should alleviate the NoClassDefFound error.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:24:02 PM | Message Detail
So, re-doing the 2k3 stats as if Sephiroth overperformed on Cloud has also given me this (assumign I'm doing the math correctly): Knuckles - 22.47%.

That's not at all far off from his 2k4 number of 22.44%. I'll do more, assuming I'm doing them correctly all the while, until someone who is better with the formula comes along and proves me right or wrong on my calculations.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:36:08 PM | Message Detail
I'm not rooting for Ghaleon, but I signed anyway. If he's going to lose, he deserves to lose with class. I mean damn, a simple Google search yields a good picture within eight results.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:40:18 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:41:57 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:44:05 PM | Message Detail
Dante only being at 22% would sure as hell make me feel better about tomorrow.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:47:04 PM | Message Detail
That's 2k3 Dante, who was possibly SFF'd by Ryu that year, or maybe DMC2 did hurt his performance. I'd still go with Dante's 2k4 number if I was going to predict where I thought Dante landed. Of course, there's no set formula of how close a given villain is to his hero so Vergil could be a speck or he could be a sizable fraction of Dante's strength. I'm all about Ghaleon winning, though, so here's for the best!
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:51:04 PM | Message Detail
I'm also all about Ghaleon winning, but with his new picture I have to count on people not knowing either character not voting for Vergil out of spite. Which may well work, if significantly lower vote totals for more obscure characters is any indication (and yes, Vergil is obscure), but we shall see.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:09:22 PM | Message Detail
It works with that change RPGuy, great tool :) Excellent interface.

Though there seem to be some problems when you try to select somebody to face themselves...it throws exceptions and starts highlighting multiple characters in the GUI. Not a big deal though, and probably not worth the time to fix it.


As for tomorrow's match, I'm highly uncertain on the percentage. I think Vergil might get in the mid to high 50's, or even as high as low 70's (though I doubt that).
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:28:55 PM | Message Detail
Hey Heroic Mario, do you know how many copies KOTOR sold for PC and Xbox?
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Petition to use a better picture for Ghaleon vs. Vergil:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20845421
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:30:43 PM | Message Detail
It sold 1 million copies in America.

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“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/131/justadream7fz.png
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:38:18 PM | Message Detail
Slowflake was right about me being wrong on the vote totals today, heh. Damn me and my jumping to conclusions.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:40:39 PM | Message Detail
Looks like the petition got closed.
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Petition to use a better picture for Ghaleon vs. Vergil:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20845421
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:43:10 PM | Message Detail
It wasn't closed by me...
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Kaxon | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:44:25 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I think that means a mod decided it wasn't going to happen.
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Petition to use a better picture for Ghaleon vs. Vergil:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20845421
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:45:25 PM | Message Detail
Oh well. It was worth a shot.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
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