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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 117
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:46:15 AM | Message Detail
http://img20.echo.cx/img20/4762/vergilghaleon8ej.jpg

An acceptable Vergil vs Ghaleon picture.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:48:10 AM | Message Detail
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 1:23:23 PM | Message Detail
There was no reason for Snake to even fall at all, considering Twin Snakes was released between SC2K3 and SC2K4. I really wonder what happened to him.


Things that can't be explained by the Xsts, which causes nervous breakdowns to some of the people in this topic. Maybe it was the lower vote totals, bracket voting, or the fact that people don't go into each match and vote as if they're transitive robots.

In Snake's match against Knuckles, most of the board was beyond pissed off that he was against Knuckles in the second round for the third year in a row, and voted for Knuckles out of spite.

In his match against Frog, did you see his picture? Good god, what a joke. There was also a massive Frog effort behind the scenes, as anyone on AIM that night with an open buddy list may attest to.

As for Mega Man, I'd blame bracket voting. When you have lower vote totals and more people thinking they have a chance to win the contest, they're more apt to vote for what their bracket says. And given that the faith in Mega Man has gone up with each year, an extra percent or two on Snake may be explainable in that manner.

Or maybe it's the fact that GameFAQs isn't exactly a stealth shooter type of site, and the only game Snake had between Metal Gear Solid 2 and the 2004 contest was Twin Snakes; Twin Snakes sold 200,000 copies, if I recall. When you're on a site that doesn't exactly give overwhelming support to your genre, lack of good exposure can be killer.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:48:25 AM | Message Detail
Okay, that's a good pic. Now hack in and replace Ceej's other pic with that one and we're good.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:48:37 AM | Message Detail
Actually, an unadjusted Zero would have about a 5% decrease from his 2003 value.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:49:29 AM | Message Detail
http://img20.echo.cx/img20/4762/vergilghaleon8ej.jpg

....no offense, but Ghaleon still looks like crap.

Is that honestly the way he's supposed to look? >_>

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:49:32 AM | Message Detail
Zero not that high? So you think his performance against Sonic wasn't legit???
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:49:56 AM | Message Detail
That puts Isaac in between Tails and Bomberman.

I believe that makes MC/Felix alot more realistic now, assuming this is true.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:50:12 AM | Message Detail
I think people are just bored with today's match and feel like arguing numbers for no reason, to tell you the truth.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:50:32 AM | Message Detail
Again, we can just assume that Zero was pretty consistent, but that he actually was SFF'd by Mega Man a little, contrary to our original thinking.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:52:40 AM | Message Detail
Ah, junk. I forgot the 2003 stats don't have Tails's true value. Either way, Isaac's just above 2003 Bomberman.

Felix still whips Isaac 60/40, even if that is true.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:55:02 AM | Message Detail
Let's just say I don't believe in absolute transitivity.

Well, Flix should win, just that they shouldn't be so greatly sepperated as they were.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:55:15 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth can very well get 90% by the end of the day.

No, he will not even come close.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:56:45 AM | Message Detail
I understood Felix is the heavy favorite over Isaac anyways before their matches ever went down, so 60/40 doesn't surprise me all that much even before SFF. Hmm.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:57:37 AM | Message Detail
Interestingly enough, Mega Man becomes slightly weaker than Sonic, if 2004 is his true strength.

Oh, and what does that do for Zelda? That puts her right below "adjusted" Knuckles.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:58:54 AM | Message Detail
There was no reason for Snake to even fall at all, considering Twin Snakes was released between SC2K3 and SC2K4. I really wonder what happened to him.

TTS shouldn't have anything positive for him and it is completely possible that he could have fallen. Given that Ocelot was suppose to do so well due to MGS3, I doubt that will even do anything for him either since he wasn't actually present within the game.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:58:57 AM | Message Detail
http://img20.echo.cx/img20/4762/vergilghaleon8ej.jpg
http://img135.echo.cx/img135/6121/vergilghaleon27ht.jpg

I'm going to send these to Ceej in blind hope that he'll change the picture before tomorrow.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:00:02 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and what does that do for Zelda? That puts her right below "adjusted" Knuckles.

That'd be a big big hurt for Diablo if Zelda really is that low. If this theory is true about 2k4 being MM's true strength, this would throw out the potential "SFF" LoZ characters may get on Mega Man, right?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:02:47 AM | Message Detail
Also, it'd explain Lara Croft's fall alot more. Man, this just keeps gettin' interestin'.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:04:02 AM | Message Detail
If this theory is true about 2k4 being MM's true strength,

We're talking about his position in the unadjusted X-sts, correct?

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:06:24 AM | Message Detail
....What are those buttons on Vergil's jacket?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:07:00 AM | Message Detail
And hey, for the opposition I gotta tell, I'm not saying MM didn't get a little SFF from Link... but If I said that outrigth in the begining I wouldn't have done a good job of startgin a debate, right?

"Also, it'd explain Lara Croft's fall alot more. Man, this just keeps gettin' interestin'....."

Yes, yes it does.

"We're talking about his position in the unadjusted X-sts, correct?"

Yes
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:08:24 AM | Message Detail
Well, let's see what this does for Lara...

That puts her at about 19% on 2K3 Link, still well above her 2004 value.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:08:25 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I know MC gained. Didn't Kefka also gain a little too?

Still, I think those were the only two. The rest suffered drops. Now I know that's not impossible, but I just can't accept that Link doubling Mega wasn't anything other than some sort of freak accident match.

Hell, I still have a hard time accepting that Cloud destroyed Sonic. It's probably just me.

I also think Tidus under-performed against Mega Man, Zero reverse-SFFed Mega, Kefka's match against Knuckles WAS Kefka's true strength, Knuckles showed his strength against Snake, and Snake's performance on Mega was right. Then you throw and Link's owning of MM and that just throws everything off for me.

Maybe I'm just weird like that...
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sephiroth vs Ramirez - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Ramirez (4/4)
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:09:33 AM | Message Detail
I still have a hard time accepting that Cloud destroyed Sonic. It's probably just me.

Sonic pretty much backed it up in 2004. He would do a little better, but not much.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:10:03 AM | Message Detail
....What are those buttons on Vergil's jacket?

Ceej ripped that pic from a calendar...and you cn't edit over that and make it look hawt.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sephiroth vs Ramirez - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Ramirez (4/4)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:14:34 AM | Message Detail
Just wondering, if we were to go by Seph's 2k4 value agianst 2k3 Cloud what would that put Mega Man at, exactly?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:16:24 AM | Message Detail
It would be a 61.8/38.2 victory for Sephiroth, slightly better than what he actually did.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:18:31 AM | Message Detail
That's not what I meant, I meant what would MM's % be if we adjusted Sephiroth down to his 2k4 number in the 2k3 bracket.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:18:47 AM | Message Detail
Who would you guys choose in Ramirez/Pyramid Head?

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:20:07 AM | Message Detail
Well, I thought you wanted to assume that Mega Man's 2004 value was also true. In that case...

Sephiroth wins with 58.55% of the vote.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:20:25 AM | Message Detail
Hmmmm, this is the first time I've really thought about there being only two people capable of beating Seph, and the one who beat him in the past two contests is the one that happens to be in the same game as him. No wonder Sephy is so inconsistent. <_<
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:21:02 AM | Message Detail
Ramirez would beat Pyramid Head, easily. It's close to the same percentage in each match, and look at the difference in strength between the two competitors.

Oh, and if it makes you feel any better, HM, currently Ramirez > Laharl.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:21:04 AM | Message Detail
32.92% is what I'm coming up with on my own.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:22:28 AM | Message Detail
Ramirez would beat Pyramid Head, easily. It's close to the same percentage in each match, and look at the difference in strength between the two competitors.

Well, yeah, if you look at who they've gone against already and what not it would probably be that way. I don't know why I felt the need to ask that, something just seemed to me that PH might be capable of not being as weak as where he would place.... I don't know nevermind.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:22:31 AM | Message Detail
Ramirez would beat PH pretty damn good. No question.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:22:40 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man's 2K3 value = 38.60% on 2K3 Link
Sephiroth's 2K4 value = 46.56% on 2K3 Link

(38.6/46.56) * 50 = 41.45% for Mega Man
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:23:43 AM | Message Detail
I don't know why I felt the need to ask that, something just seemed to me that PH might be capable of not being as weak as where he would place.... I don't know nevermind.

For what it's worth, I'd likely still take PH over Guybrush.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:23:47 AM | Message Detail
No, I'm trying to figure out what % MM gets on 2k3 Link if we assume Sephiroth over performed as I said. And, oddly enough, unless I've messed up the math (which I have had a habit of doing in the past) he gets about half a % more than he did in 2k4.

Oh, and I'd take Ramirez over PH without a thought, even without today's match.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:24:08 AM | Message Detail
Heck, Ramirez's percentage is actually BETTER against a far stronger opponent. He would wallop Pyramid Head.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:26:51 AM | Message Detail
I'd take Ramirez with ease.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:27:48 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, forget I mentioned it. I just had this little idea, but I suppose it's best not to even discuss it.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:31:21 AM | Message Detail
I'm trying to figure out what % MM gets on 2k3 Link if we assume Sephiroth over performed as I said. And, oddly enough, unless I've messed up the math (which I have had a habit of doing in the past) he gets about half a % more than he did in 2k4.

Mega Man's 32.39% on 2K4 Link is nearly equal with adjusted Ganondorf. That would translate to 34.72% on 2003 Link.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:32:06 AM | Message Detail
No need not to discuss it. Anything goes here, really, even if people constantly disagree with what I say I keep saying it. Eventually a thing or two that I push hard for sticks (SMSF, heh). Though in this case, we do know Ramirez would deliver a beating, it may not be like we think, so dispense with your insights.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:32:06 AM | Message Detail
No need not to discuss it. Anything goes here, really, even if people constantly disagree with what I say I keep saying it. Eventually a thing or two that I push hard for sticks (SMSF, heh). Though in this case, we do know Ramirez would deliver a beating, it may not be like we think, so dispense with your insights.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:34:45 AM | Message Detail
Heck, if the proportion between Sephiroth and Bowser from 2004 holds true, Ramirez would double Pyramid Head.

And as said before, Ramirez > Laharl, too.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:35:38 AM | Message Detail
You're confusing the hell out of me, man. All I want to know is 2k3 Link <- 2k4 Seph <- MM

I'm thinking that I would first take the % of MM vs Seph 2k3, multiply that by Seph's expected % against Link (in this case the 42.4 from 2k4) and then divide by our good friend 50. Right?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:38:58 AM | Message Detail
No need not to discuss it.

I'd get those delusional comments for saying what popped into my head. I started off with Ramirez/Pyramid Head to see what people would do and how much they would expect him to get. But now that everyone is secure on Ramirez beating down PH, the rest of what I had to bring up really isn't that necessary. It deals with Bowser being a lot stronger than he is now, so yeah, I'll refrain from getting nailed with the bias comment and/or the delusional stuff. >.>

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:40:13 AM | Message Detail
It's going to happen, anyway.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:41:43 AM | Message Detail
What? Bowser being significantly stronger? BIAS! DELUSIONAL, I SAY!

Seriously though, I suggested that maybe Bowser would get a little help from TTYD, but probably nothing spectacular.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/7/2005 11:41:58 AM | Message Detail
Was there any doubt on Ramirez being stronger than PH? PH has shown to be slightly weaker than Guybrush, and as weak as SoA is in general... there's weak and then there's weak, to paraphrase a French expression.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 04/04 - Matches: 04/04 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Sephiroth - Tomorrow: Vergil
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