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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 117
From: andaca | Posted: 5/7/2005 8:59:16 AM | Message Detail
Hmm...with more votes than Bowser AND Pyramid Head, Sephiroth might win this contest afterall.

Ahem.


Eh, I'm fairly sure it has been all over except for guessing his margin of overwhelming victory since the second the contest was announced, so...

;)
---
Honorary Spring 2005 Winner - Kerrigan.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:05:43 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth might win this contest afterall.

....might?
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sephiroth vs Ramirez - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Ramirez (4/4)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:12:52 AM | Message Detail
Just maybe though, nothing's set in stone. *cough*
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: JaKyL25 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:15:24 AM | Message Detail
I think I made a bad move, picking Ghaleon over Vergil.

Sure, it said Vergil was from DMC, a series I've never played, but know is popular. But I couldn't get the image of the owl from Mighty Max out of my head.
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"If you want Bells & Whistles, I suggest you attend the Circus."--Lance F'n Storm
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:16:38 AM | Message Detail
That owl was bad-ass on all counts.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: cyko | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:17:20 AM | Message Detail
but not as much as Norman!!

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:42:28 AM | Message Detail
I had no idea art of Ghaleon could look that hideous. Regardless, a one armed Tidus beat Shadow and a snot with a sword beat Master Chief, so I'm not worried.

And try out my calculator!
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:44:22 AM | Message Detail
I had no idea art of Ghaleon could look that hideous. Regardless, a one armed Tidus beat Shadow and a snot with a sword beat Master Chief, so I'm not worried.

The only difference is that people knew who the one-armed man and that snot were.

Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, who doesn't know Ghaleon is going to vote for that.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:44:57 AM | Message Detail
"Where there's light... there is darkness. Sword of the dark moon!"

This match sucks.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:48:10 AM | Message Detail
Also, is there a...calendar on Vergil's right side?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:49:12 AM | Message Detail
About the only positive thing about this match is that it looks like it's well on its way to 80,000+
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:49:34 AM | Message Detail
Assuming Sephiroth is constant with 2004 (which could be a big stretch), Ramirez is approximately even with 2004 Pac-Man.

That makes for a 58.7/41.3 match with Vyse.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:52:57 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:54:09 AM | Message Detail
Of vourse, Ramirez/Vyse SFF would be worse than Mario/Bowser and Crono/Magus.
---
I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:54:10 AM | Message Detail
As of the 9:45 mark, this match has 34898 votes.

Bowser/Pyramid Head at this same time had 27118, or still less than Sephiroth has by himself right now. For those of you who picked a high tiebreaker for the final, your chances are lookin' up.

Sephiroth has 28791 votes...How long did it take our other winners to reach that mark?

Bowser: The 11:55 mark
Sigma: The 17:25 mark
Ocelot: The 15:15 mark
Wily: The 14:15 mark

Oh, and for good measure: Ultros and Pyramid Head - Never.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:54:34 AM | Message Detail
Bah, and I still missed a typo >.<
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:55:42 AM | Message Detail
Seph remaining constant is a big stretch? Yeah... okay.... right... whatever.

And poor Ghaleon, getting shafted by Ceej. Thankfully the fluctuations in vote totals prove that people who know neither character are often inclined to vote for neither of them. Not all the time, obviously, but hopefully enough to keep it respectfully close.

But realistically from the beginning I htought my chances of winning prizes were about zip, so unless I'm one point shy and have a great tie-breaker this isn't going to bother me any.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:56:03 AM | Message Detail
If Ghaleon loses, that is.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 9:57:56 AM | Message Detail
Seph remaining constant is a big stretch? Yeah... okay.... right... whatever.

*looks at his three Summer Contest extrapolated percentages*

Yeah...He's really consistent.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:00:35 AM | Message Detail
Doesn't help that Sephiroth doesn't get along with numbers in matches he wins, either; not just his final matches that decide the X-stats.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:04:08 AM | Message Detail
The only irregular result is 2k3. In 2k2 and 2k4 his numbers were relatively the same and obviously his accurate strength.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:05:49 AM | Message Detail
Actually, his 2004 number is kinda squeezed right in between his 2002 and 2003 values.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:06:56 AM | Message Detail
Seph remaining constant is a big stretch? Yeah... okay.... right... whatever.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1367

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1776
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:08:13 AM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Seph over-performed against Cloud in the 2k3 finals now. That pulls up Mega Man (explaining his "drop" in 2k4). Also we've been assuming that Link, by way of Mario through Crono, made a hage leap... wiht Mario having a direct match with Seph who over performed on Cloud we'd then be led to realize Link didn't increase significantly. If I weren't a lazy bastard who has to get ready for work I might work that all out.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:09:53 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, those two polls and the WDF theory that's widely popular really keeps Sephiroth from being too consistant.

Side-note: I've made a tourney based off of Ulti's RATE THE GAME series, so, should anybody be interested, here it is:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20835881
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:11:30 AM | Message Detail
Well, if Sephiroth really did overperform in 2003 and pulled up Mega Man, our 20XX adjusted stats are in very bad shape.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:16:44 AM | Message Detail
I think Seph benefitted from a lot of leftover Link support in the 2003 finals. People were nighty pissed at the end of that contest.

Now Vergil's going to pound that loser six feet below ground... was there ever any doubt to begin with?

I didn't think there was, though I'll admit that my prediction of 75% is pathetic. I should really hold off on writing those things en masse just to say I've got them done.

By the way, can someone link me to a good picture of Ghaleon? I want to see what all the fuss is about here.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:16:44 AM | Message Detail
Yes, but Seph clearly over-performed in 2k3. That's the whole problem, and with how far he got in 2k3 it obviously screws over half the stats from that year and that's the one we assume to be the most correct.

Oh, and Crash alone makes me throw that WDF crap out the window gaining a % and a half over the year.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:19:06 AM | Message Detail
Let's see...Assuming 2004 Mega Man was his true strength, what does that give us?

That puts Solid Snake between Bowser and Alucard, meaning he would LOSE to Squall now. Zero falls in the same area, of course (assuming there was no SFF, that is. If Mega Man's 2004 strength is the real deal, then he probably did get SFF against Zero).

The Frog/Master Chief/Liquid threesome now falls in between Sora and Vivi. Knuckles himself falls between Luigi and KOS-MOS. Kefka now pulls 50/50 with Duke Nukem.

Hmmm....
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:19:31 AM | Message Detail
http://www.evilminion.com/gallery/screencaps/ghaleon2.jpg

CATS fused with Sephiroth!
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:20:33 AM | Message Detail
Granted, if Solid Snake DID fall that far, that might help explain why Ocelot put up such a stinker against Nemesis.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:22:00 AM | Message Detail
Also we've been assuming that Link, by way of Mario through Crono, made a hage leap... wiht Mario having a direct match with Seph who over performed on Cloud we'd then be led to realize Link didn't increase significantly.

Considering Link/Cloud faced each other again in 2004, it's pretty easy to figure out that Link DID make a sizable leap.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:22:30 AM | Message Detail
......That's scary.

If that's true, Wesker and Kefka will be fun.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:23:23 AM | Message Detail
There was no reason for Snake to even fall at all, considering Twin Snakes was released between SC2K3 and SC2K4. I really wonder what happened to him.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:24:47 AM | Message Detail
Maybe there was some Twin Snakes backlash. I know a lot of Metal Gear diehards were ticked off about that game.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:26:00 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, just like a lot of Squareheads were ticked of by Kingdom Hearts, hurting Cloud and Sephiroth, ya?

I'm still confused.
---
I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:27:33 AM | Message Detail
I dunno about that...Still, regardless of that, Twin Snakes still sold like crap, so it probably didn't help much either way.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:28:42 AM | Message Detail
I hate what that means for Kefka, but it's all realistic, isn't it? 2k3 Kefka was below Duke Nukem, Zero was just barely ahead of Squall (and I'm unconvinced that Samus wasn't SFF'd), and MC was at 26% in 2k3, not a far cry from what you're saying that trio is.

Frankly, while that makes it seem like MM and Solid Snake have dropped rapidly, chances are that they were supported more heavily in the first contest because it was new, we didn't know much, and we had brackets to protect. Anothre contest may show us the same thing about MM and Snake.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:31:35 AM | Message Detail
Actually, Zero was just behind the Tidus/Shadow duo, but that makes it more likely that Mega Man SFF'd him a little bit after all.

Oh, and assuming Tidus showed HIS true strength against Mega Man, he falls ALL the way down to the level of Luigi.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:33:01 AM | Message Detail
Also, that would mean Auron beats Tidus 62.4/37.6. That's a serious whoopin' there.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:34:08 AM | Message Detail
Is that Auron/Tidus number taking into account possible Auron SFF against Seph?
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:34:59 AM | Message Detail
Yes. Without SFF, it's a 58/42 match in Auron's favor.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:35:18 AM | Message Detail
lol The X-Stats are being REdebated? This is hilarious!
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:35:56 AM | Message Detail
Well, we're in the middle of a snoozer. We need something to talk about.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:36:07 AM | Message Detail
I refuse to believe those 2004 Stats of Mega's division. There is no way all those characters, especially Mega Man and Snake, have dropped that hard.

You can throw all the numbers that you want at me, and i still won't believe it. Mega Man losing that bad was...well...I don't know.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sephiroth vs Ramirez - Bracket: Seph - Vote: Ramirez (4/4)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:37:07 AM | Message Detail
It's not a fall from 2k3 to 2k4, it's a fall from 2k2 to 2k3 covered up by an over performance by Seph. And TS sold too little to cause any increases, even if it could stop a fall. Going off of MC, there was no SFF between MM and Link. He was up half a % between 2k3 and 2k4 if we don't adjust for MM/Link

And the difference between Link and Cloud is small enough that less than 2% of the voters could have been anti-repeat champion voters and that'd done it. It was a gain for Link, sure, but Cloud's loss is Link's gain, really. That'd also explain Seph being about 1% off his 2k2 numbers in 2k4, a bit of Cloud losing strength makes his comparison to Link a little less favorable.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:40:11 AM | Message Detail
This makes me think of something I used to say to debate against WDF 2k2; I understand the theory behind WDF in 2k2 was that people really didn't want an all-Nintendo final, and Sephiroth was their last chance...why didn't people say the same thing about possible WDF in 2k3, when Mega Man was the last hope to prevent an all-Square final? Looks like we may get that discussion now though...

...heck, while we're at it, Samus was our last hope to have a new champion, for what it's worth (not alot, but note-worthy).
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily
"What awaits each person in Heaven is eternal peace, divine rest, and $10,000 cash." --Cartman
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:41:06 AM | Message Detail
Hang on, Kefka is in trouble because of his 2003 performance? Every time I hear that, I want to laugh.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:45:11 AM | Message Detail
Okay, and for a minute, let's now assume Samus was SFF'd by Link and her 2004 number was her true strength.

That puts Isaac in between Tails and Bomberman. KOS-MOS's 2004 value would actually be very close to being correct, as opposed to her 2003 value. Squall is then pretty much equal to Tidus in 2003. Luigi then becomes ever so slightly stronger than Yoshi, as does Jill Valentine.

Granted, it's hard to see Samus SFF when KOS-MOS pretty much did as expected against Mr. Consistent Ryu, who then went on to do as expected against Sonic, who then went on to get it handed to him by Samus.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/7/2005 10:45:49 AM | Message Detail
"There is no way all those characters, especially Mega Man and Snake, have dropped that hard."

Don't you mean "we're over rated that much to begin with"?

MC GAINED, regardless of an unadjusted MM. Zero was likely SFF'd by MM and probably wasn't that high to begin with anyway. Unadjusted Zero compared to adjusted Squall is very close to what the 2k3 numbers say, just with the opposite winner. Max Payne loses minimally, probably due to facing Tommy Vercetti who should have (and assuming no mm-adjustment did) lose some ground. Yes, Shadow and Tidus take big drops, I always thought their respective 2k3 matches were beyond fishy anyway.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
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