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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 117
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 9:55:17 AM | Message Detail
Hey Har, in the Live and Reloaded videos I've seen, it looked like there were more Tediz to kill in the War chapter. Does it look that way from the demo, or was I just misinterpreting the videos?

Yeah; from what I saw, after you get your gun in that part of the game, alot of Tediz suddenly wanted some action...I don't think any came out in the original right after you get the gun (I know the next part where you go into the building has them, but I'm talking about before you go in the base/tower/door). Also, for what it's worth, it was harder to keep from getting gunned down than I remember when running across it.

If he's *really* lucky, he'll only get doubled.

2k2
Sephiroth - 80,539 (72.28%)
Alucard - 30,891 (27.72%)

Vergil's gettin' at least tripled.
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:02:40 AM | Message Detail
A DOUBLING??? I think I am going to be sick. I didn't get a chance to retract my statement of I no longer think it is going to be a 55/45 match. I didn't think this horrid match pic was going to cost Ghaleon 10%+ from what I originally thought, but in my mind this cost him a good couple %, and I really don't care what anyone else thinks, because there is no way Vergil doubles Ghaleon if given one of the many pictures I have seen people post throughout this topic that actually make Ghaleon look vote-for-able.

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:06:31 AM | Message Detail
Vergil's going to get in the low 20s. Which would put Ghaleon below Ramirez, which doesn't really surprise me.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 05/05 - Matches: 05/05 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Vergil - Tomorrow: Lavos
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:06:58 AM | Message Detail
Poor Ghaleon. I wouldn't mind so much if the match was closer, but to have people treating one of the most powerful and interesting bosses in RPGs as a joke... God, this is even worse than Guybrush.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:08:13 AM | Message Detail
Hell no. Sephiroth would have to invent new ways of torturing opponents for Ghaleon to accompany Pyramid Head.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 05/05 - Matches: 05/05 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Vergil - Tomorrow: Lavos
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:12:56 AM | Message Detail
Assuming Ghaleon stays at the 34.22% he's got on Vergil right now, how bad WOULD Sephiroth have to beat Vergil to put him on PH's level?

This'll be interesting.....
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:15:27 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, dunno. Lemme calculate that, be back in a moment.

What we know is, Ramirez ranks somewhere around Laharl. 60-40... not an unusual hero/villain SFF-less projection.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 05/05 - Matches: 05/05 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Vergil - Tomorrow: Lavos
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:20:40 AM | Message Detail
Sephiroth would need 83.96% on Vergil to get Ghaleon down to PH's level. Not gonna happen. A more realistic scenario, one I was suspecting for the longest time, is Ghaleon being more along the lines of Luca Blight. I'll come back on that in a second.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 05/05 - Matches: 05/05 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Vergil - Tomorrow: Lavos
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:23:37 AM | Message Detail
Dayum; Vergil would have to be weaker than Ramirez for that to happen. Yeah, not happening. The Luca Blight one's obviously gonna be more accurate, but it's fun just to imagine fodder being so low sometimes, heh.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:24:02 AM | Message Detail
For Ghaleon = Luca Blight, Sephiroth needs 78.73%. I think it can be done.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 05/05 - Matches: 05/05 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Vergil - Tomorrow: Lavos
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:24:05 AM | Message Detail
This may make Vergil the surprise of the contest. Thinking about it, he may easily take a top 10 spot. Wish I could have seen it coming.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:27:41 AM | Message Detail
So would beating Vergil like that put him at about Crash's strength, or is my guesstimation off?
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:30:44 AM | Message Detail
Almost. The closest character would be Vyse, and Vergil would be expected to get 36% on Dante. Not bad.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 05/05 - Matches: 05/05 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Vergil - Tomorrow: Lavos
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:37:08 AM | Message Detail
Vergil very well may be that strong, MAYBE a lil' stronger; I'd give him the benefit of the doubt against Max Payne, the next one up in the X-stats.

So, question-time...Vergil or Sigma?
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From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:38:34 AM | Message Detail
I dunno anything about the DMC fanbase, but probably Vergil. I think he'd do better against Andross than Sigma.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:50:59 AM | Message Detail
So, out of further curiosity, I decided to find out about our friends Ganon and Tidus. I assumed that Alucard remained constant from 2k3 to 2k4, which doesn't seem too unlikely because when we assume Sephiroth over-performed in his first outing against Cloud we see that Alucard (and Sephiroth) only made minor changes from their 2k2 strength. In addition I assumed Ganon remained constant between the two contests, and that he's at the strength projected for him by Alucard.

Ganon 2k4 (by way of Alucard 2k3 adjusted): 27.43

Then, following the assumption that 27.43 would be Ganon's 2k3 strength I found Tidus to be at 27.06. that's a drop of 4.24 from 2k3 to 2k4 using 2k4's unadjusted numbers. That'd seem like a surprising fall, all things considered, except that if his value of 27.06 is correct for 2k3 he would have dropped a whopping 6.74% from 2k2 to 2k3. This would be considerably likely if you assume that his absurdly minor role in KH did nothing for him (which is fairly easy to assume anyway) and that FF10's poll strength, at least for its main protaganist as opposed to the "bad ass" character, is droping consistently. Of course, we can't even be sure of Mr. Bad Ass as he sat out 2k2, got SFF'd in 2k3 and 2k4 and only has Ness, Scorpion, and Tails to go by, and they are an unreliable bunch.

If I had to make a prediction right now I'd claim that Sephiroth will outright double Ganon, though other facts may come into play on that one helping the pigman out some. That and, of course, I don't think Alucard was 100% unchanged from 2k3 to 2k4, but that's another matter all together.

Of note, in the XSt I posted the gains/losses are assuming a constant Link from 2k3 to 2k4, which I'll say isn't likely to appease cn. If anyone other than me was at all intrigued by this I'd go back and do it according to cn's "2k3 Link" numbers.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 10:57:53 AM | Message Detail
Where would that put Magus at?
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:03:55 AM | Message Detail
27.6

Of course, that makes a lot of assumptions, so I don't think it's exactly right. I have a feeling that Alucard probably gained a little from 2k3 to 2k4, and the fact that if Seph (or Ganon) was anything different between 2k3 and 2k4 throws everything off makes it all general speculation that I hope is in the right neighborhood. Personally, I'd do Alucard = 25% if I was looking for stats that would reflect what I think will happen.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:06:06 AM | Message Detail
Did Alucard get a game last year, or do you think the new voter pool just happened to favor him, or what?
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:07:09 AM | Message Detail
The results of this match make me physically ill.

You're telling me. This is just wrong. =|

I do. I nominated her, and I'd vote her over Ridley in an honest fashion.

Well, I can honestly say that I'm rather surprised.

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:07:39 AM | Message Detail
Which would give:
Ganon - 29.18
Magus - 29.35
If I did it correctly.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:08:52 AM | Message Detail
I'm not offended by the preference or nothing, but what makes MB more likable than Ridley? I'm interested in hearing what kind of answer this'll get.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:13:02 AM | Message Detail
So Squall would beat Magus, barring SSF and whatnot, according to those numbers? Interesting thought.....
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:13:48 AM | Message Detail
Well, Alucard seems to just gain for nothing, like Crono. Perhaps for those two contest exposure alone is pushing people to play these games. I dunno, really, just thinking either that, or every new Castlevania game (regardless of him being absent in all of them) helps to bring the fans of the series to the site during contest season.

And it's not that I can say that I prefer her over Ridley as a character, I don't know much about either, just tat my very early memories of all things Metroid (and those are the only sort I have for Metroid) make Mother Brain, to me, more memorable.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:14:48 AM | Message Detail
Ghaleon = OWNED.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:15:01 AM | Message Detail
So Squall would beat Magus, barring SSF and whatnot, according to those numbers? Interesting thought.....

Perish that thought...

---
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:16:07 AM | Message Detail
Interesting, but all things considered not all that surprising. Of course that's assuming that Magus is at fault for the mess. If Ganon over performed on Magus (for something silly like people wanting to see Ganon vs. Link) then Magus could be at exactly the spot we expect him to be while Ganon is actually closer to Bowser.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:17:24 AM | Message Detail
And, of course, that's why I didn't show anything for Magus in the first place, I put the blame entirely on Ganon. It's easier and it's the only option with fair (though unproven) reasoning behind it.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:17:58 AM | Message Detail
Perish that thought...

CHERISH that thought, you mean.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:19:10 AM | Message Detail
CHERISH that thought, you mean.

I cannot cherish something so... wrong.

---
“The past is dead. It was all just a dream…”
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:20:29 AM | Message Detail
It almost does make more sense for Mega Man not to have gotten SFF'd in 2004. It solves the mystery of no SFF on Zero (though it's still minor), and the HUGE leap for Master Chief for seemingly no reason. Plus, I wouldn't have seen Frog being above Squall prior to last summer anyway.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:20:34 AM | Message Detail
Which is why you cna jsut assume Ganon over performed that day thanks to the Zelda fanbase.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:20:53 AM | Message Detail
I was waitin' for Leonhart to get in on that comment, heh.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:22:01 AM | Message Detail
I cannot cherish something so... wrong.

That's true, but this is so right, recent Magus fanboy.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:23:42 AM | Message Detail
I'd still take Magus over Squall in a direct match, I just wouldn't expect them to be too far apart if we somehow had an error free 2k5 bracket.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: cyko | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:23:48 AM | Message Detail
A-HA!! way back before the brackets closed down, i warned people not to underestimate 3 characters. i compared the results in Tai's Board 8 Nominations topic to who actually made it into the contest. there were only three characters who made it in with virtually no Board 8 nominations: Nemesis, Vergil, and Sin. each of them only got about 3 or 4 Board 8 nominations, which put them down around 85th place for total nominations.

therefore, i hypothesized that Nemesis, Vergil, and Sin were going to receive much more casual voter support than we expected because they received much more casual nomination support from the homepage. not many people put a lot of faith in that, saying that other characters have made it into Contests with little or no support, like Tanner and Ryo Hazuki. but, these 3 seem like they will be stronger because they jumped into the Top 32 characters (instead of 64), which would require a lot more nominations than previous contests. actually, they all jumped into the Top 24 if Ceej seeded the characters according to nominations, which seems much more likely than in past contests. that means that these 3 characters had to jump over 50 or 60 other characters to make it in.

now, look at what Nemesis and Vergil have done so far. Nemesis far surpassed most of this Board's expectations (which could of been partly because of over-estimating Ocelot), and now most of us admit that Nemesis most likely is stronger than we wanted to give him credit for. then, Vergil today is almost doubling Ghaleon. it's true that Ghaleon's picture isn't helping him at all, but even with a better picture of Ghaleon, he still doesn't look nearly as cool as Vergil. i think a better pic might have helped Ghaleon, but only by about 1000 votes or so. and that's being generous.

so based on what Nemesis and Vergil have done, Sin is looking very good right now. don't forget that Sin had to compete with nominations for Seymour and that other SPOILER guy. despite that, Sin STILL made it in. (ok, so Seymour may not have been eligible, but i really don't see any reason why he wouldn't have been.) so, obviously, Sin must have had casual nomination support, just like Nemesis and Vergil. this makes me think that Sin really is gonna take Robotnik down.

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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:24:28 AM | Message Detail
Well, for one thing, if Chichiri was right about Samus getting SFF'd in 2003, that pulls Squall all the way up to Tidus's 2003 number anyway, within reaching distance of Magus.

Strangely enough, KOS-MOS's 2004 number sorta backs it up. Going by the 2004 stats, a rematch with Samus and KOS-MOS would yield nearly the same results. The only problem with it is that it would have made Luigi stronger than Yoshi. Barely at that, but stronger nonetheless.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:24:41 AM | Message Detail
Hey, hold on...so this affects Mega Man's entire division in 2k3, correct? Then it affects Donkey Kong, which affects Vivi...I don't know how to exactly word it, but according to how strong you think Mega Man is in 2k3 with this number (which I think is his 2k4 strength from what you've said) and if DK was steady from 2k3 to 2k4, where would that put Vivi?
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:25:57 AM | Message Detail
don't forget that Sin had to compete with nominations for Seymour and that other SPOILER guy. despite that, Sin STILL made it in. (ok, so Seymour may not have been eligible, but i really don't see any reason why he wouldn't have been.)

If the spoiler guy is who I think it is, that might have been part of the reason Sin made it in.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:26:04 AM | Message Detail
That's true, but this is so right, recent Magus fanboy.

If it were so right I would be agreeing, but seeing as how it is so wrong, I find myself disagreeing.

---
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From: cyko | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:28:33 AM | Message Detail

If the spoiler guy is who I think it is, that might have been part of the reason Sin made it in.


do you really think Ceej would have counted nominations for both as being the same character? i dunno about that. even if he did, though, would the general public consider them the same character and vote accordingly?

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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:28:43 AM | Message Detail
We could say Bowser SFF'd Yoshi a lil' and/or Yoshi SFF'd Luigi a lil' and still be reasonable, though that'd be us trying to make it fit more than letting the numbers fall where they may fall.

Vote for CATS, you know the drill.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:29:38 AM | Message Detail
If it were so right I would be agreeing, but seeing as how it is so wrong, I find myself disagreeing.

That's just the delirium speaking.

You know, I'd almost kill for Sonic/Magus now to see if this is true.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:30:51 AM | Message Detail
do you really think Ceej would have counted nominations for both as being the same character? i dunno about that.

That's not what I mean. I'm saying his fans either knew he wouldn't be eligible as you-know-who and nominated Sin instead. Either that, or they would vote accordingly, treating it as you-know-who.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:30:57 AM | Message Detail
All I know is that I'm enjoying the hell out of this. Watching someone get their face beaten in after seeing a few people make every excuse in the book in their defense is one of the best things about the contest.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:31:38 AM | Message Detail
I'd pick Sonic to beat Magus, though you all know who I'd be rooting for.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:32:08 AM | Message Detail
Squall > Magus
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:32:25 AM | Message Detail
Are we done?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:32:31 AM | Message Detail
Go Kuja!
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BtT: 3:43.45 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/8/2005 11:32:32 AM | Message Detail
Imodium Ghaleon > Lettuce Kefka. Fear.
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