But they did exist then. ;)

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Oh, and I was referring to Dante's demolishing of Ryo Hazuki, as opposed to Ryu's ho-hum victory over Ryu, not their original 2K2 extrapolated values.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Ryu over...Duke Nukem, I mean.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

By the way, it's not impossible to be misled after a couple of early matches, especially when you're looking at characters you know little about. I have a couple of examples of this.

Mario vs Cloud 2002 - If you compare the first two rounds' worth of match that these two had against one another, Cloud looked far stronger. Mario wound up winning, anyway.

Frog vs Master Chief 2004 - If you compare Frog/Liquid to Chief/Crash, it looked like Chief was getting ready to lay down the whoppass upon the snot. But once the match got started, Chief needed blind luck to get back into the match.

Does Ocelot look to be in trouble right about now? Hell yes. But I think it's a bit early to assume he's going to get stomped come the second round. I think the match will be very close one way or another.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Xsts didn't exist until Diamond Soul X's post 2003 contest analysis. He invented a min-formula that was "perfected" (if you want to call it that) by..... Haste2, I think?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

After seeing the bashing Heroic Mario got last topic, logging on and finding Wily with 63% made my day ;)
Wily's got my vote next round just for that.
---
"From now on, anyone that makes fun of me, I'll kill them, just like that!"
"Eddie, have you gone nuts?"

Yeah, I almost felt bad for HM for about two days...but he shouldn't have made such a wild pick and pass it like it was fact, heh. Regardless, he'll be happy 'bout today, much like I am.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Wily is doing quite well. He's at his highest percentage since the first five minutes of the match, and his lead passed 10000.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Guru Scoreboard now online!

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20817998

Tag it, check the stats, and keep coming back for more all month.

---
the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

I picked Ryu over Dante because of a logic that would later become the X-Sts, actually.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

Standard Zerg vs Terran is 9 Pool --> 9 Drone --> 2nd Hatch --> Drone --> Overlord --> Drone --> Extractor --> Zerlings --> Hydralisk Den --> Lair --> Lukrers, I believe.

You lost me at 9 Pool. I imagine it's building a Spawning Pool with the 9th Drone, right?

And what a coincidence, I'm currently on True Colors, and learning Burrow early saved my expansion (formerly the northernmost Terran base) from being nuked over and over. Overlord in front of my Sunken wall, burrowed Hydras, nuclear launch detected, unburrow, dead Ghost.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

I'm happy Wily is doing so well, too, and I'm one of the ones who said it probably wouldn't happen. I don't want Ocelot to lose to Wily, however, but thankfully we haven't passed a threshold where that's overly likely. Do recall, I had both of those characters pegged as being in the top 10 for this contest, so I'm not agaisnt Wily at all, just against him beating Ocelot.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

You're better off using Overlords with upgraded sight and Lurkers for that, Slow.

And please tell me you went after the Terrans with everything you had in the first five (or is it longer??) minutes. They're a pain in the ass if they get going.

Guardians + Hydralisks = victory in that level. I hate that level with a passion, I might add.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

9 Pool means that you build a Spawning Pool when you see 9/9 in the top right corner of the screen.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Thank you, thank you. No applause necessary.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Who do you think wins the next round, Dusty?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

The word was "boring".

On the contrary, Lavos is a very interesting character from CT alone. And he's suppose to play a role in CC as well, which I'm about to get around to.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Don't worry. No applause was going to be given.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I was hoping there'd be at least two topics without any theorycraft :-)
---
Jon Thomson - 3/3, today: Wily, tomorrow: Sephiroth
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

Who do you think wins the next round, Dusty?

I haven't the slightest personally. I'm completely up in the air on who is going to pull away with a victory. Nemesis is no doubt stronger than Ultros, but it isn't going to be by huge amounts. I'm seeing next round be very close one way or the other. Should be great.

If I was forced to choose, I'd go with Wily on bias alone, but he's not guaranteed anything; nor is Ocelot guaranteed anything. =p

Don't worry. No applause was going to be given.

You should be giving me applause after ridiculing me all day yesterday, but hey, I'm not a demanding guy. ;)

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

It was really really early on, so I couldn't really afford Lurkers.

And I razed the north bases of both races at the beginning. My brother actually had more problems with the Protoss, despite not even touching the Terrans in the first 6 minutes. I've destroyed the middle bases now, as well as a certain Protoss dude (he downed two Guardians on his own, *****). I got 25000 minerals and 10000 gas in the bank as well, and I'm in the process of sucking a third expansion dry as well.

On-topic now. I'm lazy today, could anyone check, if Wily and Ocelot were equal, what Nemesis and Ultros would get on each other?
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

If Wily and Ocelot are equal, Nemesis wins about 60/40.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Eek. That's... disturbing. I'm throwing in the towel there. No matter, I have more sympathy for Wily than I do for Ocelot anyway.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

That "certain Protoss dude" can be killed by a Queen's Spawn Broodling.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Looks like Wily is about as strong as I estimated him to be. He'll beat Ocelot, but by only around 4 or 5 percent.

---
"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."

Vote Totals/Lead Comparison Update:

2005-05-05 13:35:00
Ocelot: 24451 55.78%
Nemesis: 19386 44.22%
Lead: 5065 11.56%
Vote Total: 43837

2005-05-06 13:35:01
Wily: 26699 63.52%
Ultros: 15333 36.48%
Lead: 11366 27.04%
Vote Total: 42032

Clearly, the difference in voter turnout was overexaggerated. Now all we can do is speculate about Ultros and Nemesis' relative strengthens unless a steep decline in voters hits tonight and watch Wily's Day vote wind down and see where the tail end of the Night vote goes.


---
Spring Contest 2k5 Score X Potential: 3/3 X 80/80
Next Pick: Dr. Wily ///// Next Vote: Ultros

Jenova Division: Round 1 - Match 5 – (1)Sephiroth vs. (8)Ramirez

Moltar’s Analysis

Sephiroth
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VII

The big cheese in a fridge of dairy products…that’s Sephy.

Ramirez
Game/Series Known From: Skies of Arcadia

Ouch, poor Ramirez. An unfortunate seed in an unfortunate location.

Well….Sephiroth match, this won’t be fun.

But it will be short! If you are trying to win this Contest and honestly think Ramirez will beat Sephiroth, you should just quit at the Interweb and go try to do something else with you life. Like join a club, or beat up smaller people, or find a cure for a disease. Just stay away from predicting brackets.

As for the rest of the people with brains and know what Seph will beat Ramirez, please take your free point and continue to the right.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sephiroth will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sephiroth 85% -Ramirez 15%



Ulti’s Analysis

The best thing about analyzing Sephiroth's matches is that it's a foregone conclusion that he's winning the contest. The only thing of note about this match will be Heroic Mario's whining in this diet coke version of Cloud vs Vyse.

Ulti’s Prediction: Sephiroth with 81.41%



Soul’s Analysis

This one doesn’t need a long write up really. Anyone and their grandmothers know that Sephiroth is going to win this contest. There’s only 3 people in the entire contest that could probably break 40% on him, that being Ganondorf, Bowser and Liquid Snake. To make matters worse, I never heard of Ramirez before. Sephy wins this one with a strong 84%.



Outback’s Analysis

Ok, ExTha, you can stop laughing now. Seriously. It's getting annoying

At first glance, Sephiroth and Ramirez have a couple of striking similarities. And since first glance is all I have to go off, that's what I'll talk about.

Similiarities
1. Silver Hair
2. Big Sword

Differences
1. Hair Length
2. Game they come from

Other than that, I, the uneducated gamer, can't see too much of a difference between the two. While I'm sure that they're very different, I really couldn't care less about such a boring match at this point.

Sephiroth, 86.63 %, Ramirez, 13.37 % (this was completely subconcious at first, but why not go with it?)



Inviso’s Analysis

Let’s go into a long list as to why Sephiroth is going to score the blowout of the contest. He’s from FFVII, the only rep from the most popular game on the entire website. He’s the toughest boss (optional) in Kingdom Hearts. He just owns all others. Ramirez…is from a cult classic…and…doesn’t have a lot going for him.

Last summer, Vyse, the main character of Skies of Arcadia, took out Laharl, another obscure character, just barely. He then took on FFVII’s main character, Cloud Strife, and got completely ***** owned. Vyse is probably the strongest thing SoA could throw out, and Cloud pounded on him like nobody’s business. Sephiroth is not that much weaker than Cloud, as the stats show, but there are reasons to believe Ramirez would be even weaker.

My prediction: Sephiroth with 89.12%

---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Dr. Wily vs. Ultros - Bracket: Wily - Vote: Wily (3/3)

The only thing of note about this match will be Heroic Mario's whining in this diet coke version of Cloud vs Vyse.

You had better believe it.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

There%u2019s only 3 people in the entire contest that could probably break 40% on him, that being Ganondorf, Bowser and Liquid Snake.

Wanna make that 30%. No one's breaking 35%. Take it to the bank.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Xsts didn't exist until Diamond Soul X's post 2003 contest analysis. He invented a min-formula that was "perfected" (if you want to call it that) by..... Haste2, I think?

Here's the story (from my perspective):

Shortly after SC2K2, I came to this topic (I lurked a couple times before that) and was the first to publicly introduce extrapolated standings (except without the fancy name) for the character contests. It uses the formula still used today, but I admit that there was very little reasoning behind it.

Shortly before 2K3, creativename comes along and introduces his (old) version of the extrapolated standings. He was the one who got extrapolated standings popular within the stats topic. (they didn't get popular board-wide until quite a bit later) Most everybody was using creativename's formula at this time (not that it was bad, by any means). Around SC2K4, creativename sees the light and mathematically proves (supposedly) that the old multiplying-percentages formula is correct. :P

Other people have made their own extrapolated calculations as well: King Morgoth, kawaiifan, and Aprosenf all had their own, I think. (some of them might be the same) Oh, and Diamond Soul X came up with character rankings at the end of SC2K3, but said that they were only to compare characters, not to estimate a character's % against the champion.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Oh cool, so it was you.

You should have used that knowledge to win SC2K3 before it was popularized <_<

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Of course, just using the X-stats wouldn't have led you to suspect KHF, so you probably wouldn't have won anyways.
---
The world is toroidal

You had better believe it.

Ganon versus Giygas will be a bigger miscarriage of justice.

---
Now Playing: EarthBound, MAME, Tales Of Symphonia
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

... Ugh. I haven't had e-mail access (I can sometimes get on the internet in the afternoon for an hour or so and at school, but not e-mail...).

I meant to do the little analysis thing, but my internet went down the week I meant to do it and Moltar either won't post the ones I gave him or can't (maybe he didn't get them - I cannot check because I can't get to my e-mail now...

Moltar, would you please tell me if you didn't get them? I know that the ones I gave you sucked - they were 30 second last-minute things because I had some time that night at my grandmother's house. >_>

Should I continue doing them when I get my e-mail back, or should I just forget about it? They wouln't be half-assed if I had internet at home. <_<
---
Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri

Sorry, I've been pretty busy all week and haven't checked my mail. I got them.

You can keep doing them if you want, and post the finished ones in the Analysis topic and here, in the Stats topic.

Here are the ones I got.





Sigma vs. Andross

I’m one of those (apparently rare) people who didn’t know who Sigma was and that probably effected my initial decision on this match. I later switched to having Sigma win, and I think that as weak as Fox was, it shouldn’t be too hard for Sigma to be stronger than the villain.

Sigma with… um… uh… 58%



Revolver Ocelot vs. Nemesis

Ocelot seemed like a no brainer to me, but with my luck, it’ll bite me in the ass. >_>

Revolver Ocelot with 63.7%



Dr. Wily vs. Ultros

I detest this match. I hate it. I assumed that Dr. Wily would win, and I hope to God that I’m wrong.

Dr. Wily with 59.65%
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Dr. Wily vs. Ultros - Bracket: Wily - Vote: Wily (3/3)

You should have used that knowledge to win SC2K3 before it was popularized <_<

After Jill vs. Squall, I thought they were pretty useless. Never suspsected KHF. Wasn't until they started nailing everything not involving KH that I used them for the Oracle challenge; and since at the time no one else was using them for the Oracle challenge (except kawaiifan I think), I dominated the end of that contest.

It's pretty crazy looking back on it. Sephiroth vs. Mario was clearly going to be a complete blowout; yet everyone around these parts was expecting a close match. Barely anybody predicted Seph getting higher than 53%. Just insane.
---
www.SC2K5.com

Come to think of it, Ultros reminds me of CATS in his fanbase. That can't be good for Wily if it's true, but it might not be.

</lame>
---
"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Come to think of it, Ultros reminds me of CATS in his fanbase. That can't be good for Wily if it's true, but it might not be.

It's something to look into, though Ultros surely ain't that weak. However, for our purposes, what would Dr. Wily be expected to get on Link if Ultros stayed where he's at right now (36.28%) and was equal to CATS?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

If Ultros were equal to CATS, Dr. Wily would fall a little above Conker, I believe. Because at 17.20%, Jak's value, he would acquire 64.62%. But it would definitely be around that general area of 16-17% on Link.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

I get Wily getting 16.77% against 2k4 Link.
---
BtT: 3:43.45 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit

Which is basically what I had said.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Ultros is almost surely well above CATS, and Wily is almost surely well above 17% on Link. I don't think Wily would be at less than 20%.
---
www.SC2K5.com

I don't think it'd be possible for Dr. Wily to be ANY lower than HK-47, thus making his at least 18.58% on Link...if Dr. Wily DID have that value (being HK-47's equal and all), where would that put Ultros?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

So, I got around to redesigning my Extrapolated Standings Calculator. I've redone the GUI and the input, just not the actual math stuff yet. Here's a screenshot of the GUI with all the data read in:
http://img178.echo.cx/img178/8066/xs3qy.jpg
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

If Wily = HK-47, then Ultros falls slightly below Iori Yagami.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

That looks amazing RPGuy!

Your desktop is pretty too :)
---
www.SC2K5.com

The right side's way over my head, but the left side may prove to be completely awesome. =)
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

As of the 17:50 mark, this match has 58760 votes. To compare to the other three matches at this same time:

Bowser/Pyramid Head - 64453
Sigma/Andross - 56015
Ocelot/Nemesis - 63462

As you can see, Wily/Ultros was keeping pace with Ocelot/Nemesis for a while, but it's really dropped off.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

We should still end up with more votes than Sigma/Andross though...but seeing Wily/Ultros lagging in votes compared to Revolver/Nemesis has me a lil' worried in regards to the link he's got on http://planet-megaman.com/ helping him and Sigma. You can look at this in two ways:

1) Dr. Wily's gonna get his guaranteed share of votes against Revolver from that site (however many votes he'll get, we don't know for sure), then there's the GameFAQs-voters to decide. Of course, we knew this, so I'll stop here.

2) Sigma/Andross and Wily/Ultros are both coming up short on vote-totals (in comparison of what we like...or, at least, Bowser/PH and RO/Nemesis), and they both had the link on their side. Either the link isn't giving many votes to the MM characters (which isn't too likely, since I know halo.bungie.org is similar to them in hits), or their drawing power from GameFAQs-voters are pretty sorry. Now, Andross and Ultros aren't exactly mid-tier (no MM, Nemesis would NOT beat Yoshi) or vote-magnets, but that's still something to think about.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....