Wily's getting the day vote, hehe. If he continues like that I can kiss two points goodbye.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

You overestimate Ultros. But things are looking good for my oracle prediction which had wily at 63.xx%. So i can't complain about the voting considering i am extremely confident that ocelot will win in the next round.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 3/3 Next Pick: Dr. Wily

Sweet justice. =)

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Nemesis = strong

...


No, no he is not.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

wait until Wesker vs. Luca.

If Wesker doubles him then Ocelot still has a chance. Also does anyone here think that Kefka would get the same thing against Ultros before SFF?
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Vote in the Spring Contest 2005 http://www.freewebs.com/springcontest2k5/

Hey, as the day wears down, Ultros has more of a legit chance of coming back in % and breaking th spread. You know Square owns the night vote.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (149 Signs!)

Round two is going to be might interesting, as will Sin/Robotnik. Ultros may be a joke, but Sin would have to be a lot stronger than the octopus if he wants to give the fatass a run.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Wow, looks like I underestimated Wily, he's doing quite well. Nice to see a decent villain get recognized. Of course, this also means that HM was right, so the universe is going to collapse any second without my having caught and destroyed the bastard spider living in my desk lamp.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

I'm not worried about Wily/Ocelot so much as Sin/Robutt at this point. Sin is undoubtedly stronger than the octopus (who is a complete joke; don't be fooled here), but I'm assuming that Robutt is equal to Wily and that Sin is about 15% stronger than Ultros. That's a lot to ask for.

Though Wily/Ocelot may play out as Mega Man/Snake, who knows.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I still don't see Wily beating Ocelot, but it will be much closer than what I would have seen happening before the contest started, since Wily is performing well and Ocelot choked. If Wily wasn't doing so well, I'd definitely be more confident about my pick of Sin over Robotnik... the golden oldies are showing some strength.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

This may look bad for Ridley, by the way; you know, with him being little more than a recurring boss fight and all.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I wasn't aware that it was possible for things to look any worse for Ridley.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

I can't see Wily/Ocelot going more than 55-45 either way, to be honest.

Yesterday, I laughed at everyone for making a big scene about giving up on Ocelot so fast, and said that I wouldn't care much until we saw Wily in action. Well we've seen Wily in action, and now is a good time to lose faith in Ocelot. Ocelot has to hope that Ultros was a complete joke, else he may be in a bit of trouble.

As for Sin, I'd be lying if I said that he was going to have an easy time. If Robutt is stronger than Wily, he wins with ease. Sin has to hope that Ultros was a complete joke, that Robutt is weaker than Wily, and that he himself is a good deal stronger than Ultros. I can see the latter point being true, but the first two are tough. Ocelot and Sin are riding on Ultros being an absolute joke, which is feasible, but unprovable at this point.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Hmm, my only contribution for the morning was going to be how I am praying that Ultros is nothing but 'joke fodder' but apparently that has already been addressed on multiple occasions. Having absolutely no idea whether or not Wily is 64%+ strong on Ultros, or if Ultros is 36%- weak on Wily (technially no difference, just semantics) will ultimately decide what happens next round.

Normally I would say 'Well, what would you expect Ocelot to get on Ultros?' but having nothing to go on for any of these four competitors, all that question boils down to is who somebody thinks is stronger: Ocelot or Wily. If Wily, then someone will say 'less than Wily.' If Ocelot, then someone will say 'more than Wily.' So for now, I think we just have to accept that we know absolutely nothing about what will happen two weeks from now.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Wesker needs 70% on Luca to be able to hang with Kefka. Yes, he'll win with ease, but 70%?

BTW Ulti, my brother told me Starcraft crashed yesterday, he had no idea why. Still, I thought it'd be a 10-minute deal, you destroy him once, game over, he runs off crying. Usually he's a sore loser... but usually he's nicer with people he doesn't know. That trick with the barracks over to his base was AWESOME BTW. I told him, unburrow your hydras while he only has a couple marines and a firebat around, but he didn't listen.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

I can't see Wily/Ocelot going more than 55-45 either way, to be honest.

I would agree, but two days ago I might have gone as far as 60/40 for Ocelot. I still don't see Wily actually winning, but Ocelot will have no easy victory, and anyone who saw Ocelot getting past Bowser should pretty much be throwing in the towel as of now. Mind you, they threw in the towel the moment they made that pick, but it's looking increasingly impossible.

Yesterday, I laughed at everyone for making a big scene about giving up on Ocelot so fast, and said that I wouldn't care much until we saw Wily in action. Well we've seen Wily in action, and now is a good time to lose faith in Ocelot. Ocelot has to hope that Ultros was a complete joke, else he may be in a bit of trouble.

Perhaps Kefka will be a good judge of this. If he performs abysmally against Mithos (not that he could possibly lose, but if he doesn't win by much) then it would be safe to say that Ultros is a total loser. We'll probably have to wait until the actual Ocelot/Wily match, though, sadly.

As for Sin, I'd be lying if I said that he was going to have an easy time. If Robutt is stronger than Wily, he wins with ease. Sin has to hope that Ultros was a complete joke, that Robutt is weaker than Wily, and that he himself is a good deal stronger than Ultros. I can see the latter point being true, but the first two are tough.

I'd have to agree there. I can't see any universe in which Sin isn't a great deal stronger than Ultros, but I also couldn't possibly call a Wily/Robotnik match with any peace of mind.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Wesker needs 70% on Luca to be able to hang with Kefka. Yes, he'll win with ease, but 70%?

Luca's very weak. It could happen.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

He didn't have nearly enough units to deal with what I had in that match. I first sent in a force from my normal base, then the units I was building at the Barracks in his base. I had two Barracks pumping out units, if you were watching closely.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

He wasn't watching closely, so of course I couldn't. But I guessed that the troops you put near his burrowed hydras were coming from your own base.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 03/03 - Matches: 03/03 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Wily - Tomorrow: Sephiroth

Dang.. I didn't think Ultros would get beaten this badly.. Things are looking bad for Ocelot..

Here's to hoping Ocelot > Wily

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~ExquisiteSamurai~

I'm really not impressed with Wily's performance thus far...I'll feel a lot better about Wily > Ocelot if he can get it up near 65% by the end of the day.

On the other hand, I feel better about Sin > Robotnik right now than I did before...strange how that happens.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

I was anticipating a doubling, but I'll take this. I feel bad for Ultros, very worried about Ocelot > Wily, and very confident that Robotnik > Sin.

I can construct a feasible scenario in which Ocelot wins the next round, but it relies on Nemmy being far stronger than Ultros, which is something I'm not entirely comfortable with. We shall see how it turns out.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

btw who is most likely to get the least amount of votes in this contest?
its ph at the moment right anyone can do worse

Ramirez and Giygas are the only characters with a chance of getting less votes than PH.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.

Though Wily/Ocelot may play out as Mega Man/Snake, who knows.

I was actually just thinkin' that yesterday, but I don't put much stock into it; Revolver's both more involved in his series and has been in ALL of the games in his series (well, PSX and up aside from MGS:VR Missions, heh).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Perhaps Kefka will be a good judge of this. If he performs abysmally against Mithos (not that he could possibly lose, but if he doesn't win by much) then it would be safe to say that Ultros is a total loser.

We already know where Kefka stands for the most part; we don't have to wait for that match.

Luca's very weak. It could happen.

Agreed; I wouldn't be surprised if Luca had a wall from the few sales he's had. Yes, I know PDS got alot more votes than it got sales, but Luca could still have one (though just a theory)...plus look at how weak PDS was anyways (though Wesker's no Goldeneye). 70% possible for Wesker.

I'm really not impressed with Wily's performance thus far...I'll feel a lot better about Wily > Ocelot if he can get it up near 65% by the end of the day.

Dr. Wily 63.21% 17668
Ultros 36.79% 10285
TOTAL VOTES 27953

He's inching closer to it, slowly but surely.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

If this were the ending %, what would Nemesis need to get on Ultros for Ocelot to beat Wily.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Nemesis would need to beat Ultros with 59.4% for Wily to equal Ocelot.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Yech, looks like I've lost my sig for a while. Wily just keeps going up.

And I don't believe "generic" was the right word to describe Lavos. Nor was "static". The word was "boring". (Though generic does apply to Crono)
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

Yeah, Crono's votes come from the game not the character.
-_-;
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid

Well, all this tells me is that we're in for a barnburner next round. I would take Nemesis over Ultros without a second thought.

And it's probably safe to assume that Ultros is far away from Kefka. If he's anywhere close to him, then Wily could hang with Knuckles, which I don't think would happen.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

As of the 11:10 mark, Wily/Ultros has 31498 votes. To compare to other matches at the same time:

Bowser/Pyramid Head - 31903
Sigma/Andross - 27622
Ocelot/Nemesis - 32380
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

I used to think Wily = Luigi...perhaps I was more right then than I think I was now? Nah.....
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

If Wily = Luigi, then Ultros is slightly above Conker, which would put him at an estimated 39.5% against Kefka.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Am I doing the X-Stats calculation right?

To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA. I assume Ultros at 19.14, this may be a bit high, but bear with me here.

[(37)(BvA)]/50=19.14. (37 is a rounding of what Ultros vs Wily is right now)

I get Wily's X-Stats % to be 25.86. That seems a bit high to me, so I gotta to make sure I'm doing the calculation right. I for some reason just can't see Duke Nukem beating Ultros. And making his % any lower would make it likely.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

Ultros would barely beat CATS's score against Link. I'd put Ultros around Gordon Freeman's level.

So, will Bowser double the Wily/Ocelot winner? I could easily see it happening.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

You are doing the calculation correctly, Lopen.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Looks like Wily vs Ocelot's going to be quite the match then, though Lopen's stat calculations favor Ocelot. Slightly. Very slightly.

[(25.86)/(25.98)]*50 = CvB. Lopen predicts Ocelot with 50.24%.

What? I have to use em now that I've confirmed I know how. Heheh.
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

I find it highly unlikely that Bowser will double up Ocelot/Wily. They'd have to be weaker than Jak for that to happen.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

They'd have to be weaker than Jak for that to happen.

The Jak in our stats, or the Jak adjusted by Scorpion 2k3? I don't think Bowser would double that Jak.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Adjusted Jak. Bowser would fall just short of doubling him, so they'd have to be weaker.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Actually, I'd place both Ocelot and Wily around 21% (Jak) right now, which leads to Nemesis at 19% and Ultros at 15%.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I don't see them being that low.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I'd put Ocelot at 25%, and Wily at 20%.
---
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfiction:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579546&topic=20526094

I can't possibly see Nemesis being any higher, and I'd have some problems with Ultros being higher.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Eh, I have difficulty believing Laharl > Ultros myself.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Why? Ultros is a joke, nothing more.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I know that, but I just couldn't see Laharl winning that match.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I still have to side with Ocelot for next round. I think initial estimates of a character's popularity is almost as important as results... see Ryu vs. Dante, as well as a whole bunch of misleading matches in SC2K4. Even putting that aside, I think it makes sense for Ultros to beat quite a bit below Kefka...thus I think Nemesis should be quite a bit above Ultros. I mean, even among FFVI fans, Ultros' fanbase isn't widespread. Besides, Sigma vs. Andross was close, and it's likely due to Sigma's weakness, implying a weakness for Wily. Even if that evidence is really shaky, refer back to my first part of the argument.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I can't disagree with Ultros being a joke.

You know what kicks ass about this contest? We don't know most of the characters, and have to wait until the matches to see what will happen. We can make reasonable guesses about a few things, but all they are is reasonable guesses. You can't get much better than that.

Eat that, Xsts! *pelvic thrust*

And also, Ocelot/Wily is one of those matches where I'll be rooting for one character, but won't be very upset if the other wins. I'm a large fan of both characters in that poll. Granted I thought Wily would be a bum in this contest, but I'm pleasantly surprised with how he's doing. I had a convo with ExThaNemesis yesterday, and told him that I thought that Wily/Ocelot would be dead even if Wily scored 65% on Ultros. The next round could very well come down to board/bracket votes and outside support, all of which are areas I'd give a slight edge to Ocelot. We're up for one hell of a good match come round two.

From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2005 11:38:48 AM | Message Detail
He wasn't watching closely, so of course I couldn't. But I guessed that the troops you put near his burrowed hydras were coming from your own base.

Burrow is a horrid ability to research that early, especially against the Terrans. Standard Zerg vs Terran is 9 Pool --> 9 Drone --> 2nd Hatch --> Drone --> Overlord --> Drone --> Extractor --> Zerlings --> Hydralisk Den --> Lair --> Lukrers, I believe. Though Dabu would be the one to ask about that, because I suck at memorizing build orders.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Ryu vs. Dante

If the Xsts existed at the time of the 2003 bracket phase, none of us would have picked Dante.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal