Hand gesture shmand gesture, he's still barely beating an ugly bastard with a ponytail for an eye-scar. You've hand gestured yourself blind if you can't see how over-shot your prediction is cyko. =P
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

does anyone think that we'll have a poll be as close as the Frog v. MChief match?

if so what combo do you think that it would take?
---
I don't need proof, I have anecdotal evidence. ~ Dogbert

How pathetic would it be if Sigma indeed did turn out to be weaker than Nemesis?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Oh, and if cyko's theory about that poll is true, then I think CJay made an exception for Diablo so the suspense would build up more.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Personally, if CJayC was choosing those underdogs which had the most bracket support, I believe Wesker would definitely have had to be on there.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Everyone here is going to say something like the closest poll is Diablo/Ridley. Seriously, watch for Kefka/Wesker at this point. I think it could be the most exicting match.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Oh, and if cyko's theory about that poll is true, then I think CJay made an exception for Diablo so the suspense would build up more.

Or maybe people are just siding with Ridley en masse after Samus' Final Four shot in 2K4. People could think that what happened with SC won't happen with Diablo. It could be elves. Or maybe CATS set Diablo up the bomb. Who knows?
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Knights and ninjas play host to the Middle finals at www.rpgdl.com, with Yuffie Kisaragi taking on Izlude Tingel!

Which makes me ask this; would anybody take Wesker over Revolver right now?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Yeah if it was bracket support Wesker and Diablo would have to be on there over Ultros and Master Hand.

I be really tempted...
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Mm, I think it might be more of the opposite. I think Sin would be much more favored to pull off the R1 upset than Ultros. I think CJayC just kinda chose 5 characters that had a decent number of brackets going for the upset, but not little or too many. I also think Andross was more favored to win than every one of those other characters, bar possibly M. Bison.

that's entirely possible, too, but i also have to ask why Ceej forgot about Wesker, too. i have a hard time believing that 57% of the brackets would have picked Luca Blight. but, maybe he did just randomly pick 5 lower seeds with a lot of brackets. or maybe he just randomly picked 5 lower seeded characters and their number of brackets wasn't even a factor.

i still can't shake the feeling that the number of brackets with each character influenced Ceej's decision of who to put in that poll. he usually does have a reason for doing things like that.

You've hand gestured yourself blind if you can't see how over-shot your prediction is cyko. =P

maybe i did, HaRRicH!! maybe i did........

*makes hand gesture*


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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

I'll wait until their second round matchups before I decide who I'd take in Ocelot-Wesker.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Or maybe people are just siding with Ridley en masse after Samus' Final Four shot in 2K4.

Mega Man's made the Final Four the past two contests, yet Ultros made the poll still.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

You know, all of a sudden, I just have this gut feeling that Ocelot-Wily will be a huge barnburner.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

and i could totally see Ridley as a very heavy bracket favorite. he might not be, but i could see it as a big possibility.

---
VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

I think a match is going to jump out of nowhere and surprise us by being really close. Like Lavos/Liquid Snake or Kuja/Master Hand.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Like Lavos/Liquid Snake

I just can't see Lavos being anywhere close to Frog.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

you mean, kind of how the past two matches did? >_>

---
VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

Cyko, I meant competitive close not closer than we thought.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Lavos should impress, but not make it close. As much as I like to think Kuja/MH'll be close, I think MH will either win Sigma/Andross-style or get beat 60-40. My margin of error's on Kuja's side there, but I have more faith in MH than to take that "safe" pick"...

...I think the surprise match will be Albedo/Bison.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I say Lavos will get around 35% or so on Liquid, which would put him at Bomberman's level.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I think a lil' higher than that, but you've got the right idea with Bomberman.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Lavos is one of those characters. He can either be fairly weak or unusually strong, it all depends if the usual CT fanbase loyality goes to him as well.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Like Lavos/Liquid Snake or

I'm predicting a 60-40 loss for my favorite porcupine, unfortunately. =|

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

60/40? Lavos being comparable to Knuckles?

Can't see it.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I'm not expecing more than 28% out of Lavos. The CT support won't rally behind a big porcupine, much like the FFX support won't rally behind a big whale.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

This is probably explained somewhere, but I can't find it.

How does Game FAQs determine who's on top in the "Contest Stats" if there's 13,000 of us with perfect scores so far?
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www.moneyscooters.com

Earliest entry gets priority.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I'm expecting 35% at the least from Lavos.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Lavos will be fodderesque. Just like we've seen with Yuna, the fans will not always go for any character out there.

He's going to be lucky to get past Mother Brain. The only reason he's the favorite is because Mother Brain is probably going to suffer from the same problem as Lavos will. My bracket says Mother Brain (though the utter lack of board faith is disturbing me...), and I'm fairly confident she could pull out the "upset special".
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He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

Oh I never said it would be close. I fully expect a blowout. I just said a match like one of those is going surprise us by being extremely competitive (within 52-48) by the end of the tournament.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Actually, that's about the max I would expect from Lavos.

Remember Mumei's advice, HM? Whatever your maximum percentage for a prediction for a character you like is, lower it by about 10% and you'll be just about right.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Yeah, Knuckles is surely too high for Lavos. I thought a lil' below KOS-MOS would be good for it, personally...or an adjusted Jak.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I don't think either fanbase will particularly care for Lavos or Mother Brain, but in general, CT > Metroid here, and at least the porcupine had some cool moments.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Guys, Imma unhook this POS and hook up my REAL computer now...I can't stand pages taking 10 seconds to load whn I have friggin' DSL any more.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

He's going to be lucky to get past Mother Brain.

I don't see him having trouble taking care of Mother Brain. If it were Ridley, I might be a little more worried, but Mother Brain? That should be a cakewalk for him.

The only reason he's the favorite is because Mother Brain

Actually, that's about the max I would expect from Lavos.

Well, I'm sure we all have our differences. I'm not saying that the 40% is a set in stone prediction, but somewhere around there. Anywhere between 35-40% is what I would expect against Liquid.

Yeah, Knuckles is surely too high for Lavos. I thought a lil' below KOS-MOS would be good for it,

That's roughly ~38% against Liquid. That will put Lavos just under KOS-MOS.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Mother Brain at the end of Super Metroid > all of Lavos's moments.
---
He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

Bah. Lavos was better than any time you ever see/fight Mother Brain.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

The only reason he's the favorite is because Mother Brain

See? The love for Mother Brain is so low that Heroic Mario couldn't even be bothered to finish his sentence!
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

He wouldn't be bothered to finish mine either...
---
He needs nominations, 61! Nominate Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2) for SC2K5!

Heh. I forgot to erase all of Lopen's previous post. =p

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

If this was 1995, Mother Brain would probably take it... Fresher memories of Super Metroid and Captain N. Also she might have been able to take it if she was featured as a boss on SSBM. Before I played it and heard about the adventure stages, I thought every character would have a stage and that you would get to fight the boss from that character's series....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Let me defend a few of my "odd parallels".

Today is good news for Vergil and Wesker. The Wesker parallel is simple enough to follow, but I think that Devil May Cry is a comparable series to Resident Evil. They're close enough in feel and playing styles to garner the same fanbase. In fact for all we know, they have the same fanbase outright. If Nemesis and Wesker are up, I don't see why Vergil can't follow suit.

I think that Wily and Robutt will piggyback each other; either both will be weak, or both will be strong. They're both old, moronic scientists who get their brains beaten in game after game. In fact, if you take Robutt's candy bars away from him, he and Wily even look similar. Now while both characters are complete losers, there is a tiny difference in that Wily actually knows what the hell he's doing when he's going after Mega Man; Robutt is just an outright dumbass. When you factor this in with Mega Man being slightly > Sonic, I think it translates into Wily being slighty > Robutt. To go a bit deeper, I think that Wily, at best, is just above the strength of Protoman.

Why? Because of these polls:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=261
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=582
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=581

Being well-known does not mean that you're well-liked. The big example of this from the Nintendo series is Donkey Kong (everyone knows him, but it's clear that this does not translate into votes), and I think that the latter two polls are some evidence that Robutt is the "Donkey Kong" of the Sonic series. everyone knows him, but few like him. And how can you blame Sonic fans for feeling this way? Like Donkey Kong, Robuttnik is a fat bastard who acts like an absolute idiot. And since I feel that Robutt's weakness is Wily's weakness, they're both going to end up being weak bastards.

I think that Robutt's absolute ceiling is around 2004 Hayabusa, with Wily being just above him. If this is relatively close to where they actually lie, then Ocelot will have no problem beating Wily. There's no way in hell that Nemesis is as strong as Jill Valentine, but Jill Valentine is vastly underestimated by the 2004 stats, and I believe that her "true" level is around where Luigi is. Accepting Jill as she is now is assuming that 2003 Squall is equal to 2004 Sora; dunno about you guys, but I think that's a load of crap. Squall >>> Sora. I think Jill's position is understated, and this leaves room for Nemesis's position to be higher than we all thought as well.

Ocelot is definitely weaker than some of us thought, but I feel today's match is more about Nemesis's strength than anything else. Resident Evil has never been weak by any means, and today's match doesn't surprise me all that much; in fact, Jill might be very underestimated and for all we know, Nemesis could fit into that little cluster**** of characters along with DK, Luigi, Wily, and Robutt the Fatass. Something simply isn't right about Jill beating Kirby and Bomberman, then being 6% under Kirby two years later. It's something that the Xsts cannot explain, and something that mathematics cannot figure out on its own. It would be nice to say that math could decide every match for us, but this will never happen.

I only picked Ocelot to win by about 58%, remeber. I think today's match translates into a 54-46 victory over Wily, give or take a percent or two. Granted a lot of this rests on Wily/Ultros falling in the 53-47 range, but I don't think that will be much of a problem.

By the way, tonight's match may also be a foreshadowing for Robutt/Sin. If Wily and Robutt are as close as I think, then the last think Robutt wants is Ultros getting close to Wily. Sin will wind up being a lot stronger than Ultros, and if Ultros gets close to Wily, Sin may have little problem leapfrogging the strength of Wily and lying Fatass's behind down to rest later on in the contest.

(continued)

Or I could be wrong. Who knows. Nearly all of the picks I'm concerned about will be decided come tomorrow's match. Wesker and Vergil have already locked up their wins as far as I'm concerned, and I haven't worried about Diablo since the second day of the bracket phase. We'll see what happens.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Lavos and Mother Brain are both going to suffer from voter apathy and be very weak. If you think Lavos > Kefka you need to have your head examined.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Well that sure wound up being a lot of rambling nonsense =p

Hopefully everyone understands what I was trying to say, at least.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=261

Metroid usually does well in these polls. Strange to see it below Pokemon there.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=261

Ew.
---
SpC2k5: 2/2 First up: Bowser, Sigma, Ocelot, Dr. Wily
*is Janus5000*

Revolver Ocelot was supposed to be strong because he's a badass from a recent game.
Vergil is supposed to be strong because he's a badass from a recent game.
Ocelot bombed. Horribly. And Metal Gear Solid >>> Resident Evil ? Devil May Cry.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Ocelot hasn't come close to bombing in my eyes.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal