I will absolutely SHOCKED if Vergil or Ghaleon get more than 55% on the other. I mean, we are talking to the point of jaw hitting the floor status. I mean, I like Ghaleon almost as much as the next guy, but this is a fodder vs. fodder match, and neither of the fodder are 'joke' fodder (Tanner, Guybrush, CATS, etc...). I cannot imagine any fodder breaking 60% on any other fodder, and as such I really think the vast majority of these matches will fall within 60/40. If you checked my oracle predictions, you would see that I have thought this all along, and not just saying this based off of two matches, but with the exception of the Bowser/Ganondorf/Sephiroth/Liquid quadrumverant (made up word alert!), the other 28 characters are severely... wait for it... weak bastards.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Wesker beats Kefka. </Random>

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---<3---
SpC2K5 Statistics: 2/2 --- Ocelot vs Nemesis
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed ... Coming Soon ...

Oh, and Kasumi and half of Raziel's rankings are based on 2k2 numbers, so take them with a grain of salt. I wouldn't expect either of them to be able to compete today.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

It is kind of a fodder vs fodder match. I still think that Ghaleon should win, but he'll lose like 58-42. Then Sephiroth will completely asspound Vergil and Ghaleon will be at the bottom of the x-stats. :(

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence

I still feel Raziel was a decent competitor... he was just unfortunate enough to have to face Sephiroth in 2k3... Nobody cares about Soul Reaver now though, so his best days are behind us.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I cannot imagine any fodder breaking 60% on any other fodder, and as such I really think the vast majority of these matches will fall within 60/40.

Ryo/Guybrush. Magus/Luca. Vyse/Laharl.

...okay, so Magus doesn't fit in. Damn. Regardless, the point's made.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Ever since the ending of Soul Reaver, I've despised that series. I did think Raziel was a cool character though.

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence (2/2 - Next Match - Ocelot)

But a character with 9:1 odds getting 56% on one with 1500:1 odds?

Expectations. And those odds are based on picking the winner. It's got nothing to do with percentages.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Ever since the ending of Soul Reaver, I've despised that series. I did think Raziel was a cool character though.

Legacy of Kain is a great series, but it sometimes gets too pretentious for it's own good (Soul Reaver 2 had an ungodly amount of cutscenes).
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Today's subliminal thought is:
Contest Stats: 2/2 Next Winner: Ocelot

Ryo/Guybrush is answered by my 'joke' fodder generalization. I think most fodder gets 60%+ on the 'joke' fodder like Guybrush, CATS, Tanner, etc... these are the people that have no business even being in the tournament. Sure, the same can be said for Ryo, but it just goes to show how much of a joke Guybrush is. As for Vyse/Laharl, I would have sworn that it was within 60/40, but I guess I was mistaken.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Heh, and I called 60/40 in favor of Vyse, baby. Most people were expecting it to be closer than that.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Yeah, I loved Blood Omen.

BTW: I just watched Icons on G4 last night and they had Tim Schefer (sp?) on. I had no idea he created and was a part of so many cool adventure games back in the day. I need to go back and play some of them.

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence (2/2 - Next Match - Ocelot)

Well yes, you called it 60/40, but you were a bit biased perhaps, Legendary Vyse?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/5/2005 2:15:02 PM | #308
But a character with 9:1 odds getting 56% on one with 1500:1 odds?

Expectations. And those odds are based on picking the winner. It's got nothing to do with percentages.

If duds and success stories aren't based on expectations, on what are they based then?

And I don't get that last sentence.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Bias has nothing to do with it. I just knew Laharl was too cult to give Vyse a fight.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

"As of the 9:25 mark, this match has 26342 votes.

To compare, Bowser-Pyramid Head had 25915 votes, and Sigma-Andross had 22625 votes at the same time."

This has me thinking, as vote totals always do. This match is way ahead of yesterday's, meaning that these characters combined are stronger, at least for the most part, than yesterday's were combined. Those two were talking Vyse/Laharl level of interest... and with them being much closer Imma say Sigma rates lower than Vyse while Andross might be quite close to Laharl. Anyway you look at it, Andross isn't close to Fox's actual strength as evidenced by yesterday. To add to that, he doesn't even look quite as strong as Fox did when SFF'd.

On the flip side these two are on their way to a better match than Bowser had. This leads me to believe Ocelot is definately stronger than Sigma and that Nemesis might give him a good solid fight. Not that I didn't think that way anyway, but these higher vote totals help. Stronger characters bring more votes. Not that these guys are that strong, but they are bringing votes.

As of 11:20 we have 32930 today. Still maintaining approximately 400 more votes than Bowser vs. PH.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

If duds and success stories aren't based on expectations, on what are they based then?

Performance. And I would say Sigma's performance against Andross was a bigger dud than what Ocelot's doing today. We knew Andross would be low end fodder, and Sigma still couldn't do anything.

And I don't get that last sentence.

It doesn't matter about match percentages when determining odds. People can be overwhelmingly in agreement that somebody will win, but it doesn't mean they think they'll win big.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

If duds and success stories aren't based on expectations, on what are they based then?

Performance.

Performance compared to expectations. Expectations weren't high for Sigma to begin with. Ocelot is another animal entirely.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

They were certainly higher than 53% on Andross, who we knew going into this was going to be one weak piece of fodder.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

No one is denying that Sigma bombed. Ocelot's expectations were much, much higher than his current 56%, though, and, just like Andross, we don't have any reason to believe that Nemesis is anything special.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Well, we knew Andross's absolute ceiling was no higher than fodder, considering what we know about Fox. We couldn't really say much about Nemesis considering Jill is about as erratic as can be.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

The problem with your reasoning, Slow, is that the BoP is only about who wins. If Ocelot wins then he did as expected. If he goes to Bowser and only takes 20% he may be absolute crap, but he still performed exactly as expected when the only guidelines that the BoP grades by are W's and L's. You have to think about it this way, both Sigma and Ocelot were certain to lose to Bowser, in Ocelot's place Sigma would have still had basically the same expectations of making it to Bowser (I think only people that don't play the X series like myself would have Wily winning which accounts for the same number of people who have Wily beating Ocelot, jsut a different demographic) and would still be doing far worse than expected. They both bombed, but look at the match vote totals, at least Ocelot's match has people interested. Vyse vs. Laharl was more popular than Sigma vs. Andross, isn't that utterly pathetic?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Chrono Trigger review has been accepted. I'm done with the game now.

I really don't know if this is unexpected weakness from Ocelot, strength from Nemesis or a bit of both. Wily's match tomorrow will likely tell us nothing - all we've had so far in this division is Bowser rightly hammering fodder and four new characters up against each other with no decent stick to measure them against.

Of course, if Wily goes and triples up tomorrow it's not looking great for Ocelot...
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Jon Thomson - 2/2, today: Ocelot, tomorrow: Wily
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

Jill is about as erratic as can be.

Yeah, Jill is a pain in the ass.

And I will remember you stealing my word, Viktor. I will remember it well.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

If Wily even doubles Ultros, that'll be impressive.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I really don't know if this is unexpected weakness from Ocelot, strength from Nemesis or a bit of both.

I think it's both. Though I've never thought that Wily was anything at all, so I really don't care.

Though yeah, if he kills Ultros tomorrow, I'll be worried.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

No orgasming over Magus for half the review = INSTANT PHAIL

Ocelot/Wily is reminding more and more of Bowser/Yoshi, for whatever reason. If Wily wins, it'll have had the same "only a small part of the board got it, but with the round 1 results we saw it coming" feel. I wonder how we would have reacted to that had Bowser gotten no SFF...

And BTW Ulti, my brother saw us play SC yesterday, and he pestered me for a while because he wanted to play against you. Just sayin', because if I don't tell you about it he'll kill me.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Just loaded up my personal match-pick reasoning/prediction file I made for myself to see how I've done so far (I made this the morning after brackets opened, so my mind changed some before the matches started)...


"Bowser'll get a tripling."

"Sigma should make it a 60-40 match in his favor."

"Revolver should come just short of doubling Nemesis."


...bah.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Well, redeem yourself and make the right prediction for Wily/Ultros.

I say 55/45.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And BTW Ulti, my brother saw us play SC yesterday, and he pestered me for a while because he wanted to play against you. Just sayin', because if I don't tell you about it he'll kill me.

Tell him to sign on tonight. We're in the same time zone, right? I'll sign on in about 6 hours (at 9 PM).

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Oh, two things.

Is your brother any good?

You gonna get off your lazy behind and write up your top five? I want to hear Mario/Sonic/Magus/Kefka rants.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I still maintain that Ocelot will get 67% on Wily.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

So you're saying Nemesis would kill Wily?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

"I predict Dr. Wily > Protoman and Kefka is noticeably stronger than Ultros, so I'll take Dr. Wily with about 61%-62%."

Not much to redeem, unless it happens.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

So you're saying Nemesis would kill Wily?

Yes.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

Nemesis beating Wily would be a gosh darn shame. Hear me out, A GOSH DARN SHAME!!!

Gosh darnit.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

So you're saying Nemesis would kill Wily?

Ultros could kill Wily....or at least, get 45%. </Squarerider>
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (147 Signs!)

67%?? Why do people think Wily is going to be incredibly weak? I mean there is good reason to believe he is stronger than Sigma and he almost definitely would beat Protoman.

As for this Nemesis thing. The only thing this worries me about is Kefka over Wesker. If Nemesis is challenging Ocelot, unless Ocelot is much weaker than we could of imagined, and Wesker is a good deal stronger than Nemesis, there is no reason for not to be, then I can see Kefka being in some trouble.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

67%?? Why do people think Wily is going to be incredibly weak? I mean there is good reason to believe he is stronger than Sigma and he almost definitely would beat Protoman.

I don't think he's incredibly weak. I think Ocelot is stronger than Bowser.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

Yeah, and Nemesis is stronger than Yoshi. Good luck with that, MM.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Yeah, that means Nemesis, a character half of the RE fanbase dislikes (Believe me, Ive been in enough RE fanboy arguments.) , would have to be quite a few percantage points in front of the second biggest hero in the game who also happens to have huge jugs.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

All the RE fans I know love Nemesis. Plus he looks badass in the picture well Ocelot is just an old guy. I think Ocelot could be doing better with a MGS3 pic.

Nemesis being in the Top Thirty-Two is oh-so unlikely. Taking Nemesis over Donkey Kong is a scary enough pick, why would you wanna move up to taking Nemesis over YOSHI based on a guess this is Nemesis's strength instead of Revolver's weakness?

As a side-note, Nemesis is close to cracking 44% on Revolver.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Maybe half is an overstatement, but there is definitely an anti-Nemesis faction out there or was.

Right now the RE fanbase is split between those who love RE4 and those who thinks it disgraces the series.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

9 PM? Fine. I'll warn him.

And no, he's no good either. He's one whole mission ahead of me in the campaign mode, despite having a lot more opportunities to play.

And I'm pretty much dropping the favorite characters list. No more big write-ups until the Winners And Losers column. Mario was done anyway, so that's one fourth of what you were looking for. You could see the top 5 coming from a galaxy away anyway.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Yeah, and Nemesis is stronger than Yoshi. Good luck with that, MM.

Thanks.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

Good good. I was going for the outright hijacking of your word of the contest, so it would be a shame if it went without recourse.

The sheer fact that Ultros could run the gammit of anywhere from 'Kefka comparible' to 'joke fodder' makes assessing tomorrow's match-up, both pre and post. Wily could triple him and it could mean nothing, just as easily as he could win by 1000 votes and go on to beat Ocelot. It all depends on how one assesses Ultros' worth.

Personally, I think Wily escapes tomorrow by the skin of his rather large rear (53%ish or less), and then goes on to do the exact opposite to Ocelot (pull in 47-50%). Why? Because I think all of these characters are ultimately fodder. If it happens, such that they all fall within a 60/40 of eachother, it means that they are ALL either a) strong, b) mid-tier or c) weak bastards (TM).

And I for one say that option c) would be the obvious choice, since if they truly were a) or b), then at least one of them should have made it into the Summer Contest by now. There is no way, save company cap, a character who has been around, and not seen a contest, would be anything more than a 70/30 winner on Tanner. The main argument for a non-company capped character being strong and yet to see a contest was Revolver, and unless Nemesis ends up being Summer mid-tier material, Revolver will be nothing more than lower mid-tier himself, even after being the lead antagonist of what I gather to be a highly-publicized and well-received newly-released game.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Can we agree Liquid having Snake in his name did him wonders now, at least?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I agreed on that before this match when I said Ocelot wouldnt be nearly as strong as Liquid. The SNAKE factor was huge.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Makes me wonder how Naked Snake could do, what with having Snake in his name and looking exactly like Solid...
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!