This right here is bombing for the same reason that yesterday was Sigma bombing.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I'll be interested to see how many people picked Nemesis to win this match. For some odd reason, I'm getting the feeling that he has the bracket advantage.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

MGS is almost always overestimated by the casual voter. I don't see why Ocelot would be any different. I'm almost positive Ocelot has a strong (66%+) bracket backing.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

MGS is almost always overestimated by the casual voter.

Remember only around 66% of brackets having Snake beating Knuckles, despite it happening twice before in convincing fashion?
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

As Slow told me last year, blame Kefka for that, not Snake or Knuckles.

I missed the part where Vergil is helped by this match.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

And I missed the part where he was hurt by it. You can't fairly compare Nemesis and Ghaleon.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Yeah, the same Kefka that was a bracket underdog to Pac-Man, right?

Then again, he was favored to beat Knuckles, so people don't pay that much attention when making out their brackets anyway.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

With Pac/Kefka, Pac was the icon who made the Sweet Sixteen the year before while Kefka was the contest rookie. None of that can be carried over to Knuckles/Kefka...then from there, I assume people simply had more faith in Kefka to get past Snake by either using the reasoning of "Kefka was SFF'd by Crono" or "KeFkA's QsuaRE!!!1!"...fortunately, much of our board was above putting Kefka over Solid.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I don't see why Nemesis's performance here affects Vergil or Ghaleon, and I don't see how Ocelot's performance here affects Vergil or Ghaleon. I'd like an explanation of this.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Well, I'm thinking people are using the "Ocelot's bombing even though he was just in a new game" as a way of correlating it to Vergil.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Wow.

I'd be flat-out shocked if Wily beat Ocelot. Shocked, I say. Why don't we wait until tomorrow before drawing any crazy conclusions? If Wily beats down Ultros 70-30, then yeah, I'll concede that he has a chance to win.

I usually agree with you, Ulti, but unless you're suggesting that Nemesis is on par with Dr. Wily, you'd have to think that Wily has a fair shot at topping Ocelot.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS

Okay...well, as opposed to Ghaleon hardly even getting the chance to bomb years ago? I think me and you see eye-to-eye on this though Leonhart, so that's not aimed at ya.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Ya know, I kmade some pretend results a few days ago by assigning odds of each character winning and then using a randomizer. I ran it a second time, and, oddly enough, the only difference was that in the 2nd trial Ocelot won the division. o_O So, I decided to "count" the first one...

Anyway, the results and what I believe their chances of winning:

Bowser (100%)
Sigma (90%)
Ocelot (95%)
Wily (90%)
Sephiroth (100%)
Vergil (75%)
Lavos (90%)
L.Snake (100%)
Kefka (100%)
Wesker (95%)
M. Bison (65%)
Ridley (40% chance)
GDorf (100%)
Ansem (100%)
Robotnik (40% chance)
Kuja (85% chance)

Bowser (100%)
Ocelot (95%....)
Sephiroth (100%
L. Snake (100%)
Wesker (10%)...this really did come up twice.
Ridley (30%)
GDorf (100%)
Kuja (60%)

Bowser (85%)...2nd time around it picked Ocelot.
Seph (100%)
Ridley (15%)
GDorf (95%)

Seph (100%)
GDorf (95%)

Seph (100%)

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Yeah, as I said before, it's not really a fair comparison with Nemesis and Ghaleon.

After all, Ghaleon's not a movie star.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I'll be coming later with a heap of stats regarding the division for the whole family to enjoy. Stay tuned.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

My comparison between Vergil and Ocelot was mainly deriding Ulti for his nonsensical comparison between Vergil and Nemesis. Don't read into it.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

Lara is, and look where that got her. Angelina's fine, too, so throw some TJF in there as well.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I think you guys are underestimating Nemesis. Don't you think he'd be more recognizable than Wesker? Nemesis was in the RE movie for one thing, but far more importantly, Nemesis' name is in the title of RE3. In any case, I guess Wesker has a pretty good shot at Kefka, anyway... I really had no idea that Wesker might be more popular than Jill.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, Lara wasn't all that liked here to begin with. Resident Evil has shown itself to be fairly popular here.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Which is what I'm gettin' at; there is NO correlation between Vergil and Nemesis that's worth noting.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I really had no idea that Wesker might be more popular than Jill.

*blares warning signal*

Jill's probably underestimated in the 2004 stats. This match kinda works toward that, and I'd say it definitely would if Wesker beats Kefka.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Well, by 2k3 stats, Jill's only at 25% compared with Kefka's 23%. So Wesker would have to be very close to Jill to beat Kefka, and I still don't think that will happen. This match is cause for worry, though.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

And for the record, a Tomb Raider movie was released a mere few days before the match against Zelda, where there was nothing worth noting. Nothing like the timely SMS release that pushed an otherwise hopeless Mario over Cloud.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Well, that's still a 54/46 match in Jill's favor. There's still a good bit of room for Wesker to fall in there and not be as strong as Jill. Quite a few characters do fall in that range.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Damn it, I knew it! Wily is going to beat Ocelot after all. And I know seeds don't carry that much weight, but Wily is a two seed for a reason.

Heroic Viktor, your hypothesis sounds like it might be right.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW!

The only match that has gone as we thought it would was Bowser-Pyramid Head, and that's only because we've seen the Koopa King in action before.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I'd love to see Ocelot/Jill or Ocelot/Leon in the Summer Contest now, just to see if Nemesis is, in fact, for real.
---
I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

Well, you'll only have to wait until Ocelot faces Bowser to find out.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Eh, true.
---
I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

Nemesis =/= Chris Benoit. I'm thinking it's really Ocelot that's stinking it up.

It'll take a crazy stinkbomb for someone to top Ocelot for my turd of the round award, I'll tell you that.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

It'll take a crazy stinkbomb for someone to top Ocelot for my turd of the round award, I'll tell you that.

Just blame yourself for overestimating him. Besides, if Robotnik loses to Sin, he'd deserve it more.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Ridley will likely be more of a disappointment than Ocelot.
---
I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

Question: Who wins the vote when the kiddies come home tomorrow? Dr. Wily for being a Mega Man character, or Ultros, for being a freakin' purple octopus? I know Square is more of a night vote champion, but come on, how many preteens can say no to colorful calamari?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Probably Wily, but there may be no distinctive winners of the day and night votes in that match. It's happened before, no reason it can't happen again.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Eggman losing to Sin would be somewhat expected. But a character with 9:1 odds getting 56% on one with 1500:1 odds?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Not sure. Does anybody think the pre-contest poll is a fairly accurate judge of how Ultros could do in the contest (in relation to Bison, MH, and Tenpenny...forget about CATS)? That might be something to remember as well tomorrow, maybe moreso than Sigma/Andross.....
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

I usually agree with you, Ulti, but unless you're suggesting that Nemesis is on par with Dr. Wily, you'd have to think that Wily has a fair shot at topping Ocelot.

Or we could concede that both Ocelot and Nemesis are strong and that we probably need to wait until tomorrow before making judgements on Wily. Until further notice, I say Wily is a weak bastard. You have Mega Man, then Zero, then a huge dropoff until you reach anyone else from that series. I'd go as far as to say Bass would be stronger than Wily in this contest.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

i find myself in just about complete agreement with ulti. which actually doesn't often happen. but his analysis on ocelot/nemesis/wily sounds good to me. everyone is jumping the gun on how strong which characters are. time will show which characters are and aren't strong.

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 2/2 Next Pick: Ocelot

we probably need to wait until tomorrow before making judgements on Wily. Until further notice, I say Wily is a weak bastard.

Heh.


Anyways though, I got a theory...what if Nemesis was as strong as Jill, and Jill has risen up due to RE4 resurging the series here? Possible, maybe?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

If Nemesis is equal to Duke Nukem, not a long shot though probably high, then Ocelot's still as strong as DK. That's only about 3% short of where I, and most others, expected him to be. Personally I think I'd take Nemesis over Pac-Man, at least, so maybe Ocelot's Ness strength, maybe not. Either way, it's not like we have any solid evidence yet to see where anyone is at.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Ocelot just hit 4000 for his lead.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

Resident Evil characters have never been weak in the first place. I'm not going to sit here and say that Ocelot isn't choking, because he is. But I still say that Wily is a loser, and I'm getting the feeling that Nemesis is a lot stronger than people gave him credit for. For right now, the only thing that this match shows me is that Vergil and Wesker have literal byes into the second round. Little-known cult RPG characters from series without the Squaresoft tag attached aren't going anywhere unless they go up against absolute losers (such as when Ness beat Jak, for example); neither Wesker nor Vergil fall into that category, and it'll be fun to laugh at everyone defending Luca Blight and Ghaleon when the time comes.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Either way, it's not like we have any solid evidence yet to see where anyone is at.

Oh my god, it's Common Sense. How are ya, buddy? :D

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Some stuff I made up and gave its own topic for the benefit of those who don't come here, but it belongs here as well.

First, the Vegas odds of each character in the division, based on the BOP:

Bowser - 4:1
Ocelot - 9:1
Wily - 23:1
Sigma - 30:1
Ultros - 240:1
Andross - 600:1
Nemesis - 1500:1
Pyramid Head - 6000:1

If Andross were equal to Fox, Sigma would STILL be expected to lose to Bowser with 40.01% of the vote, and would be comparable to Luigi.

If Ocelot loses to Wily, it would be the fourth biggest upset in the history of the BOP, behind Starcraft in the Elite 8, Starcraft in the Sweet 16 and Sora in the Sweet 16 in 2004 (unless a projected first round loser other than Diablo, Sin, Albedo, Ghaleon or Luca Blight wins beforehand).

Had Ocelot lost to Nemesis, it would have been an unprecedented upset in the annals of the BOP: 3/102 brackets picked Starcraft to go to the Elite 8, but 2/110 picked Nemesis to beat Ocelot.

If Nemesis were equal to Jill (gasp!), and as of this writing he has 43.61% on Ocelot, Ocelot would fall between Tommy Vercetti and Luigi and, in the event he makes it past tomorrow's winner, would be projected to lose to Bowser with 40.96% of the vote.

If Wily were equal to Tails (a reasonable guesstimate), to beat Ocelot he'd need Nemesis to be as strong as Kain or Duke Nukem.

I'd love for Wily/Ultros to be underway to be able to make more projections and stuff... maybe tomorrow.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Absolute losers? You mean like Vergil? I'd pick Jak over Vergil without thinking twice.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I love the Resident Evil series and I've never really liked Jill all that much. That's not to say that I didn't think Nemesis was nothing more than a generic villian. I didn't think either would be strong (other than TJF for Jill). Wesker on the other hand was and is awesome. I'd also vote for Barry over anyone else really. I think this match is a combination of Nemesis doing better than expected and Ocelot under performing a little. I think that a lot of people thought he'd be putting up great Snake like numbers and were brought back down to reality.

This whole thing doesn't change the matchup with Wily though. I think Wily's strength in this contest is severly overrated by a lot of people. My best guess is that he'll barely beat Ultros and then lose to Ocelot by about 3000 votes. Closer than some initially thought, but still a victory nonetheless. Oh, and Ocelot never had a chance to beat Bowser and hasn't proved otherwise.

The one match I'm really thinking might go the other way is Kefka/Wesker. Maybe it's because I'm biased towards Wesker, but Kefka is has always seemed VERY weak to me. All it takes is a bad picture and Kefka is toast. Thankfully it's not worth too much, as the winner of that match will lose to Diablo anyway.

---
Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence

Ulti, it's hillarious how you can say Don't judge these characters when they haven't had a match yet then turn around and judge an entire group of characters who haven't have a match yet. Not one RPG character has stepped up to the plate here, and the only thing you have to go by in the past are Laharl, Luca, and Vyse. Now, those aren't a great bunch of guys to be around, but you've got little evidence that every cult RPG character is going to perform like that, as opposed to Ness for example, and even less to say that their opponents aren't weak bastards.

Tanner was in a game that sold a hell of a lot more than any characters you mentioned and wasn't anything to note. Sometimes, popularity as a whole fails characters in the contest. I'm not saying Virgil = Tanner, cause it's decidedly not so, but for all we know he might lose to Jak in an uncontested match. Let's wait and see, shall we?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

(such as when Ness beat Jak, for example)

Once you account for Sephy/Auron, assuming you go off of a steady Scorpion from 2k3, I think Jak ends up at Tails and Ness a lil' above KOS-MOS. I know that's not exactly right, so somebody correct me there...but Ness and Jak aren't exactly losers.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

Also, with Slow's numbers, if there's a similar gap when you compare Jill to Nemesis and Fox to Andross, HM still has at least a chance that Sigma > Revolver, believe it or not.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, let's pray I pass my finals.....

By my reckoning, from my all time averages rankings:
47 Yuna 23.66
48 Ness 23.46
49 Kefka 22.75
50 Ryu Hayabusa 22.68
51 Bomberman 22.17
52 Kasumi 22.17
53 Fox McCloud 21.83
54 Viewtiful Joe 21.56
55 Jak 21.08
56 Raziel 20.45
57 HK-47 20.41

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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!