Wow, Clown Kefka actually looks halfway decent on that banner.

Much as it physically pains me to agree with Tai, I don’t think Wily will break 60% on Ultros. It’s not crazy or impossible like most of the things Heroic Mario says (*wink*), just improbable. I see them both as being pretty weak, and two pretty weak characters combined don't make for a 60/40 match.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Ryo/Guybrush and Vyse/Laharl both went 60/40.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

So is Kefka. What's your point?

In a contest filled with weaklings, even any strength becomes very important. Plus, I'm expecting kefka to do very nicely for himself in this contest, too.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

Serious Sam/Mr. Driller almost went 60/40 >_>
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BtT: 3:43.45 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit

As did Kyo/Abe.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr05/b04.jpg

Wily looks very good right there.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Anyway, assume for a minute that Wily vs Ultros has the exact same score as today's match. Would that put an end to all the Wily > Ocelot stuff? Because seriously, it's reached overkill level at this point, and I'd love for some common sense to come back to the board.

Of course it would, because Ultros is definitely going to be weaker than Nemesis, who is already going to be weak. But it isn't as though Ocelot is anything worth mentioning in terms of strength anymore, or at least as far as being anywhere near Liquid. The fact that Ocelot is just doing worse and worse as the match goes on, in percentages, doesn't exactly speak well for him in the upcoming match where Wily is capable of winning.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Harrich:
could this possibly make Claire Redfield legit from 2k2? Maybe not anymore, but back in 2k2, she certainly had reason to brag when she got about 45% on Tidus...maybe that's not a fluke anymore?

I don't really see why she would've been considered a fluke to begin with. Just because her strength "doesn't make logical sense", doesn't mean that it's not real. Data is more powerful than logic sans data.

Anyway, I agree with those that say the RE series has a habit of surprising us.


Haste2:
Nemesis was in the RE movie for one thing, but far more importantly, Nemesis' name is in the title of RE3.

Hey! No one told me this. Why wasn't this discussed...? Nemesis being in the title of RE:3 is a big deal I think.

That certainly makes me less worried about Wesker vs. Kefka. Everyone's expecting Wesker > Nemesis, but if Nemesis has a game named after him, that isn't definite.


Slowflake:
Nothing like the timely SMS release that pushed an otherwise hopeless Mario over Cloud.

WTF? Since when did this get accepted as "fact"?

I'd say Planet whatever had far more influence than SMS. Even if you say that SMS' release got that site more traffic to send here.

Mario shouldn't have won that match, true. But it's not like Cloud would've got more than 52%-53% that year anyway. 53% at most--we know this, because that's what he was at before interference.


smitelf:
Wow, Clown Kefka actually looks halfway decent on that banner.

Yeah, I was surprised at that too.
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www.SC2K5.com

Of course it would, because Ultros is definitely going to be weaker than Nemesis, who is already going to be weak.

Nemesis' strength could fall anywhere within a fairly wide range.
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www.SC2K5.com

Nemesis' strength could fall anywhere within a fairly wide range.

I see absolutely no reason for Nemesis to be near Jill, who is already weak herself.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Slowflake:
First, the Vegas odds of each character in the division, based on the BOP:
Bowser - 4:1
Ocelot - 9:1
Wily - 23:1
Sigma - 30:1
Ultros - 240:1
Andross - 600:1
Nemesis - 1500:1
Pyramid Head - 6000:1

I don't know what formula you're using to get this, but it doesn't seem to be an accurate representation of the BOP implied odds.

In the past I used a method of "points proportion" to determine the odds to use, except with a "point power" of 4^(round-1) rather than 2^(round-1). The bracket scoring system uses 2^(round-1)--e.g., a round 1 victory is worth 1 point, round 2 2 points, round 3 4 points, and so on.

I've found that using 4^(round-1) gives pretty reasonable odds. See http://sc2k4.com/spring2k4_odds.php.

An example using Bowser: 110 round 1, 109 round 2, and 91 round 3. No picks for round 4. So, he gets 110+436+1456=2002 points. There's 54,560 points total between everybody.

Thus, for this contest, it gives Bowser a 3.67% chance to win the tourney, which is a lot more reasonable than 20% :)

This can also be done for the division. For the Mushroom division, the BOP implies the following:

Bowser — 65.00%
Revolver Ocelot — 23.90%
Dr. Albert Wily — 06.36%
Sigma — 03.51%
Ultros — 00.97%
Andross — 00.19%
Nemesis — 00.06%
Pyramid Head — 00.00%

Again, fairly reasonable in terms of communicating the board's feelings, I think.

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www.SC2K5.com

Of course, that's assuming Jill's 2004 number is accurate, which I'm beginning to doubt.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Even if Jill were moved up, Nemesis would still very much be weak.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

And you know this...how?

Oh right, you don't.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Of course, that's assuming Jill's 2004 number is accurate, which I'm beginning to doubt.

Her number probably was more or less accurate--we have no real reason to believe that something weird happened there.

But...
1) Resident Evil characters' strengths may not fall in line with our pure logical expectations. Maybe Nemesis has some sort of "ugly memorable badass" thing going for him. We can guess, but don't have anything to back statements back.
2) Jill might be much stronger now than last year.
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www.SC2K5.com

Because there is absolutely no reason, like I said earlier, for Nemesis to be anywhere near Jill. Every case I've heard for Nemesis, which mostly boils down to a movie, Jill can be given. I'm not saying he's CATS level, but to think Nemesis is something in the way is strength is just asinine.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Her number probably was more or less accurate--we have no real reason to believe that something weird happened there.

Going from beating the crap out of Bomberman to being nearly even with him in 2 years practically screams "WRONG!"
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Going from beating the crap out of Bomberman to being nearly even with him in 2 years practically screams "WRONG!"

Huh? She only beat him with 58% in 2K2. Two years of volatility can handle an 8% fluctuation. It's significant, but not that big, relatively speaking.


Oh and Slowflake, the odds you show in the BOP add up to way more than 1 (they add up to about 257%). Maybe Sephiroth's 1:100 is a typo, but even taking him out gives odds that add up to about 158%. What was your formula?
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www.SC2K5.com

Replacing the sum total of all points by the sum total of points possible for a character (pretty much Sephiroth + 32). Sephiroth with 8:5 odds is somewhat insane, doncha think?
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Sigma and Ocelot should end with around the same percentages when I look at it.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Eh, I'd say Nemesis > Andross.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

There is a possibility that Resident Evil 4 gave the entire series a boost.
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Knights and ninjas play host to the Middle finals at www.rpgdl.com, with Yuffie Kisaragi taking on Izlude Tingel!

Replacing the sum total of all points by the sum total of points possible for a character (pretty much Sephiroth + 32).

I'm not understanding. You don't have to explain though.

Sephiroth with 8:5 odds is somewhat insane, doncha think?

With the 4^(round-1) formula, it works out to a 67.8% chance of Sephiroth winning this contest. That's about 5:11 odds. Which, if anything, underestimates Sephiroth I think.
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www.SC2K5.com

Watching Dusty argue contest theories is like watching my little brother defend the Eagles.

Nicholas: The Eagles are the best!
Me: Why?
Nicholas: Because they are!
Me: You're aware that they've choked four years in a row now, right?
Nicholas: It doesn't matter, we've got McNabb and Owens!
Me: Owens might hold out.
Nicholas: It doesn't matter, because we're the best! We're wining the Super Bowl next year!
Me: Just like in the last four years.
Nicholas: The other teams got lucky!

...you get the idea. At least he's growing up to be the prototypical Philadelphia fan.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

I'm not convinced that Nemesis = Andross, but it isn't impossible. I'm wholeheartedly disappointed in Ocelot, though. He should be much better than an annoying boss in an unpopular PSX RE.

It would be absurd for Nemmy > Jill, since Jill is in both the movie and the game that Nemesis is in, the protagonist in the game, and the protagonist in the more popular RE/make as well.

Bah, this match makes no sense. Nemesis can't be strong and Ocelot shouldn't be weak.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I would expect Nemesis/Andross to be fairly close, but I'd probably side with Nemesis as well.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

I dont see why RE4 would give the entire series a boost, but maybe.

Oh yeah, speaking of RE 4, Im campaigning to Luis or Krauser or both to get in the Summer contest this year. Two of the cooler characters Capcom has created, especially Krauser.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

No offense, by the way. Dusty is one of my favorite guys. He's just really good at never backing himself up.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Leon Kennedy is your best bet at a new RE character.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Watching Dusty argue contest theories is like watching my little brother defend the Eagles.

I wouldn't exactly say what you say is anything worth praising either.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

He's just really good at never backing himself up.

Please, by all means, I want at least three examples of this.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

Bah, this match makes no sense.

Ah, my favorite saying. Welcome to the dark side <3

Nemesis can't be strong and Ocelot shouldn't be weak.

I think that they're both strong, myself. We'll see what happens when the stats for the match are released and whether or not Wily has problems with Ultros. If Nemesis has 60% of the brackets on his side, it could explain a few things. Not likely, but not impossible.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

The one thing I want to look at, if Wesker does pretty well againist Kefka aka beating him or coming with a few percentages of him. It really spells good thing for Leon, who is probably right now by far the most popular character. He was the lead guy in the two most widly respected RE games and is one of the few characters the entire RE base seems to get behind. I could see him as a favorly strong 4/5 seed at least around the level of Dante.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Hehe. I know nothing about football. Still funny. HM's predictions are made so that he looks like a freaking genius when he actually gets them right.

BTW, where exactly do you want my bro to be at 9 PM?

(Oh, and for all the times he's been a pain in my butt, could you make it quick and as painful as possible, please?)
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

Nicholas: The Eagles are the best!
Me: Why?
Nicholas: Because they are!
Me: You're aware that they've choked four years in a row now, right?
Nicholas: It doesn't matter, we've got McNabb and Owens!
Me: Owens might hold out.
Nicholas: It doesn't matter, because we're the best! We're wining the Super Bowl next year!
Me: Just like in the last four years.
Nicholas: The other teams got lucky!

New England..winning with LUCK?! How old is he? O_o'

Eh, I'd say Nemesis > Andross.

Yeah, I think that's about right too, since Ocelot >> Sigma.


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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (147 Signs!)

Leonhart, Leon is a given at this point however or atleast should be. I can deal without Luis, but Krauser is soooo awesome.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Please, by all means, I want at least three examples of this.

Only three? Yeah sure, just wait until I finish up something in Starcraft.

Though for the first example, I cite "Mega Man will win the contest! He will beat Link!"

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Well, if Krauser didn't get into a villains contest, what are the odds he'd get into the character contest?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

BTW, where exactly do you want my bro to be at 9 PM?

Channel Ulti.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Though for the first example, I cite "Mega Man will win the contest! He will beat Link!"

I don't want three examples of me being wrong. I want three examples of me never backing myself up with what I have said.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”

I personally think that Ocelot shouldn't be counted out just yet, I mean look at what SSBM did last year, it didn't get over 60% on any game, yet it made it to the Final Four.

But perhaps it's just the 128 Division itself, it probably would get beaten by a game in another division..?
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.
Spring2K5: 2/2 Today's Pick: Ocelot Today's Vote: Ocelot

I can always dream.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

OK, thanks. Gotta leave the computer now. Good luck... not that you'll need any.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Points: 02/02 - Matches: 02/02 - Rank: 00001/24748 - Today: Ocelot - Tomorrow: Wily

I personally think that Ocelot shouldn't be counted out just yet, I mean look at what SSBM did last year, it didn't get over 60% on any game, yet it made it to the Final Four.

Somehow, I doubt Nemesis is on the level of MGS2 or Vice City.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

As far as the odds of winning go, this is all about winning the contest. So it should be points earned/total points possible. So Sephiroth will only be missing points from the two poor souls who think Ganondorf can beat him. Ramirez and Giygas would not get odds, simply because if nobody thinks they can get out of the first round, then nobody thinks they can win it. Vegas never allows bets in scenarios like this (example being the money line is turned off in Vegas on any NCAA basketball game where the point line is higher than 10). I think a better way to do it would be to just set up a % chance of winning, rather than turning that into odds. And by that, I don't just mean have Sephy be 108/110% and Ganondorf 2/110%. Go through the motions, but that will still leave Giygas and co. with the 0% chance of winning.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

CATS > Ansem
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SpC2k5: 2/2 First up: Bowser, Sigma, Ocelot, Dr. Wily
*is Janus5000*

FINISH HIM!
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Robotnik > That earthworm and not the cool one named Jim either.
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Vote for Robotnik, he isnt a woman or a giant slug or a .... hand.

Stop bringing up GTA:VC/SSB:M!!! I twitch at the mere thought of it.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts

Did everything just taste purple for a second?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Bowser, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!