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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 112
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:12:33 PM | Message Detail
I've got one big "separation" pick and a bunch of "safe" picks. Yeah, I'm a wuss.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:12:47 PM | Message Detail
So, what are everyone's upset specials? You're obviosuly going to need a few if you want to win.

"Upset specials" is only a glorified way of saying "the right pick". Upsets don't happen.

I say this because I know I'm going to win the tourney.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: creativename | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:14:19 PM | Message Detail
Regardless of what the stats say, CATS will generally get a set amount of votes, not a set percentage.

To say that this is doubtful is an understatement. This has been a common idea but has never been supported by anything.

You really think CATS would receive the same number of votes against Ms. Pac-Man or Tanner as against Ryu or Cloud? Come on.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:14:34 PM | Message Detail
Okay here who I think are sure bets over Kefka:
Sephiroth, Gannondorf, Bowser, Liquid Snake, Sigma, Ocelot, Dr. Wily, Ansem, Robotnik, Sin

Thats 10

I think Lavos, Diablo, Ridley, Kuja, and Wesker have a shot but I think he probably would beat those.

So 10 definites and 5 maybes (but Im going with Kefka againist all of them.)
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:16:02 PM | Message Detail
M. Bison kick the living crap out of Master Hand? Nu-uh, won't happen.He'd beat him, but you'd be silly to say MH would get the crap kicked out of him.

You guys never cease to amaze me when it comes to Master Hand.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:16:20 PM | Message Detail
I don't think CATS has hit that wall yet, don't get that mistaken...but if he ever got to face Mrs. Pac-Man, we'd find out that wall exactly, and it'd have him coming short of what he was supposed to do according to when he faced Link, Cloud, or Ryu. I think we'll see that wall come into play against Ansem, unfortunately.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:17:13 PM | Message Detail
What, I dont think he is strong but come on people we are talking about M.Bison and Kuja here. Not Bowser and Sephiroth. If you are even midly popular you are going to get within 15 percent of them.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:17:13 PM | Message Detail
It's just me HM, don't say you guys like everybody agrees with me. =P
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:17:24 PM | Message Detail
Bison over Kefka.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:17:59 PM | Message Detail
Well, there are three of you in particular that strike me as crazy. =)

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:19:35 PM | Message Detail
I didnt think Ocelot would be such an overwhelming favorite againist Wily. Oh well, just kills more brackets when Wily wins.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:20:38 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Sin's a sure bet, and I don't think we can really make assumptions about the MM villains just yet.

Also, I don't think Ansem even has a shot over Kefka. KH didn't even do that well in the spring, and Ansem isn't even the most developed villain from his game (Riku would do better in the contest). I think people are vastly overestimating him.

Damn. Sigma vs. Andross or Ansem vs. CATS would have been better 4 vs. 5 matchups for Kefka's division. Cause I don't really think Wesker has a shot.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20388161 - The GameFAQs Fanfiction Project, based off of the Spring Contest!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:23:42 PM | Message Detail
I'd love for Dr. Wily to win...but I don't see Revolver being any weaker than Tommy Vercetti, and I don't see Wily being any stronger than Donkey Kong. That's my personal minimum/maximum for 'em, too, so it'd be hard for me to comprehend Wily getting to face Bowser.

Again, I'd love for it to happen though.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:25:07 PM | Message Detail
It still amazes me how much people underestimate Kefka. Allow me to give a little reminder of what he has had to face.

2003 first round: Lettuce Kefka. I almost voted for Pac-Man before I realized that the repulsive thing in the picture was in fact Kefka.
2003 second round: SFF versus Square's third strongest character.
2004: Lettuce Kefka again. Also, Kefka had to deal with Snake very likely underperforming against Mega Man as well as Mega Man's statistical nightmare against Link.

In short, Kefka's position in both extrapolated stats is likely a bit low.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:25:22 PM | Message Detail
I think Wily is going to put up a solid showing against Ocelot and that Sigma will put up one hell of a fight against Bowser. Sigma, in particular, is someone I would expect to do well in an actual summer contest.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:25:52 PM | Message Detail
Here is what I think.

I dont think Ocelot is nearly as strong as Liquid. Anywhere near. Liquid had a few advantages such as being the main baddie in the most popular MGS game and also the name helped just a tad.

I think Dr. Wily is somewhere between Protoman and Zero.

I think Ocelot is closer to Snake than Wily is to Mega Man, but I think the difference isnt as large as the difference between Mega Man and Snake. Thus Wily gets the pick.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:26:48 PM | Message Detail
KH didn't even do that well in the spring

Yeah, it only ranked in the top 15. It sure did suck.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:27:17 PM | Message Detail
I don't know about anybody else, but I'd rather see Andross/Wesker and Sigma/Luca than what we got. I know that'd change the seeds just a lil'...but, come on. Andross/Wesker would be pretty debatable.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:27:51 PM | Message Detail
In short, Kefka's position in both extrapolated stats is likely a bit low.

You mean, even though he did pretty much what he was expecting to do against Knuckles last year accounting for SFF against Crono?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:28:19 PM | Message Detail
Not really... I still take Wesker without thinking twice. I think Star Wolf would be more popular than Andross.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:28:42 PM | Message Detail
Sigma/Luca? Are you a big fan of triplings?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:28:59 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and to expand on my statement, with CJayC's past picture patterns, it will likely be Lettuce Kefka in the first round (no problem due to his opponent), the pic in Kefka's profile this year against Wesker (again, he should be able to survive), and a sprite against Ridley/Diablo/Bison. That means either the laughing sprite, which is extremely recognizable, or a longshot at the final battle sprite.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:30:02 PM | Message Detail
Nevermind my last post; I misread Sir Bormun's post and went in the wrong direction with it.

KH was impressive...just not to us who had it beating Halo and/or Starcraft.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:31:40 PM | Message Detail
Sigma's gonna win either way though, so why not give him the tripling? Andross/Wesker would be more interesting than Sigma/Andross.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:32:34 PM | Message Detail
If Bison were to face Kefka, his sprite would be this.

http://img145.echo.cx/img145/7587/sfbison4el.gif


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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:33:01 PM | Message Detail
Meh, I'd rather have Luca Blight and Vergil switch places.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:33:44 PM | Message Detail
Im looking at this bracket and I have to wonder. Is Kefka's bracket CJay's repayment for the horrible Lettuce Kefka pic. There is very little he could of done to make it easier for him without making it obvious that the bracket was set up in favor of Kefka.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:35:39 PM | Message Detail
Kefka's likely sprites:

One of: http://www.ffcompendium.com/chara/6kefka-g.jpg

Or: http://www.ffcompendium.com/chara/6kefka-b2.jpg
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:38:08 PM | Message Detail
As would I. Again, I misread his post and went in the wrong direction with it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:40:29 PM | Message Detail
http://www.biwa.ne.jp/~tak-n/dot/ff6/kefka.gif

There's always that.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:40:55 PM | Message Detail
http://www.ffcompendium.com/chara/6kefka-b2.jpg

I never finished FF3/6 (don't worry, I don't mind being spoiled), but I like Kefka...if he gets that pic though (which is the first time I've seen it), I will vote against him with an unbelievable rage; that's just that ugly.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:13:43 PM | Message Detail
http://img101.echo.cx/img101/4645/sf01p01fin13gp.jpg

I just want to let the badassness of that picture be shown everywhere.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:17:52 PM | Message Detail
That's pretty badass looking there =)
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:23:04 PM | Message Detail
Indeed, that IS bad-ass.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:24:44 PM | Message Detail
It would seem there's no spread betting contest. Anyone want to do something about that?
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:26:43 PM | Message Detail
I've been waiting for it to come around, and yet it hasn't yet. If somebody would make the rules for it (or has the rules for it), I'll do it. That'd be very quick to make every day, afterall.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:31:21 PM | Message Detail
While this poll's goin' on, I ought as well ask: how would you rank those five characters in strength?

My take:
M. Bison
Master Hand
Tenpenny/Ultros
Ultros/Tenpenny
CATS
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:32:44 PM | Message Detail
http://img101.echo.cx/img101/4645/sf01p01fin13gp.jpg

I just want to let the badassness of that picture be shown everywhere.

Ah yes, the awesome artwork of Udon Comics! :) (remembers to pickup Darkstalkers #5)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:36:47 PM | Message Detail
This poll is a disgrace. I'm not going to deny that Master Hand has a chance to beat Kuja, but if he actually wins, I'm going to puke.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:36:48 PM | Message Detail
I want to say another thing: I will laugh my ass off if Lavos turns out to be something in the way of competition. I think it would be kick ass and hilarious at the same time.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: cyko | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:38:43 PM | Message Detail
i would just like to point out that Master Hand is pushing further ahead of Bison now:

CATS 19.71% 6843
M. Bison 24.67% 8564
Master Hand 25.67% 8912
Officer Tenpenny 13.4% 4653
Ultros 16.55% 5744
TOTAL VOTES 34716

told ya Master Hand is no joke. =P

i've been tempted all along to put MH over Kuja, and i'm just trying to hold out another 30 minutes without changing it. i still don't think he can pull it out against a Final Fantasy character, but i will laugh at everyone who's been saying he will get decimated by Kuja for the past few weeks. yeah, yeah, i know this poll doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but Hand is still ahead of Bison and all the other fodder, so at least he's proven he's gotta be above cannon fodder level.

btw - i had to vote for Ultros, but still, go Hand!!

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:40:12 PM | Message Detail
I think the fact that Bison would kill Master Hand in an actual contest poll shows how much you should put into it.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: Shadow Doom Blaze | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:41:37 PM | Message Detail
Master Hand is nothing but a five-pronged condom designed for the economically challenged and sexual predators.

~*ST*~
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*Ulti* Lettuce Kefka is my God!!
Losers complain about doing their best. Winners go home and **** Ulti. -MasterTonberry
From: cyko | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:42:22 PM | Message Detail
I think the fact that Bison would kill Master Hand in an actual contest poll shows how much you should put into it.

unfortunately, that is not a fact. at least not yet, anyways. at this point, it is still merely a predicted opinion.


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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: cyko | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:42:52 PM | Message Detail
dude, how could you NOT vote for a five-pronged condom? =P

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:43:24 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, you are the second of the three I was referring to earlier on being "crazy."

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:50:39 PM | Message Detail
Disgrace? Come on...this glove's beating a SF2 playable boss, GTA:SA's villain, a villain from FF3/6, and the ever-persistant CATS in a match of name-power. For the caliber of villains that they and most of their opponents are (as in nearly equal or higher than MH in most people's eyes, not as in high-profile)...that's not a disgrace, that's an eye-opener; I didn't think MH would be a dominant second in this poll, much less steadily take the lead and keep increasing. It's doing good.

I keep wanting to feel better and better about MH over Kuja, though it's still anything but guaranteed and I'm still uneasy about it. What surprises me about today's poll is that M. Bison's performance is impressing people. *sigh* For as much over-looking people have done on Master Hand, this one tops it. I'd still take M. Bison over Master Hand, but come on...MH is still gaining and Bison is still decreasing! What has he done in this match that's been that impressive, even when he WAS ahead? He led for a lil' over half of the match, I think (and could still come back) when he should have been the easy favorite.

That's not impressive guys.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:52:28 PM | Message Detail
Sadly, five-pronged condom >>> Master Hand.

Touche.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: cyko | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:53:20 PM | Message Detail
agree'd

why would anyone be impressed by Bison's performance, yet less impressed by Hand's performance today? that don't make no sense.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/2/2005 5:04:29 PM | Message Detail
harrich I would love to help remember/re-come up with them. I don't think I have any saved unfortunately, but, I doubt there's too much more than an entry deadlock, probably an hour or so before each match, oh, and the procedure for getting out of the negatives. Ok, you got 100 for every writeup you did, and I think you could always bet 100 no matter how much you had. something like that... Although getting it there for the second match would still be fine, if not better at this late point.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
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