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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 112
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:57:03 PM | Message Detail
Barret? I'm not so sure about him, though it's possible. I think Laguna would be above Kefka, personally.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:02:02 PM | Message Detail
There's no way I wouldn't take Barret over Kefka, though I don't know how much higher I'd actually have him.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:04:41 PM | Message Detail
I hadn't even thought of Laguna, and he's my favorite in the game! Of course, I'm on the phone with a girl and all, so I can't think.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:09:00 PM | Message Detail
Possibly Zell, as well, as much as I'd hate that to be the case.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:15:58 PM | Message Detail
I don't have much faith in Rinoa topping Kefka, so I have doubts that anyone less entwined with the main story would be of note before her. Squall, Seifer and Rinoa play all the classic parts, and Laguna is highly enterwinde with all that is going on as well as being your Squall replacements in flashbacks. That sorta makes him the sidekick of the game. Outside those four (and I'm iffy on the last two having noticable contest strength) I wouldn't bet on any one else being noteworthy in FF8.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: thok | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:19:23 PM | Message Detail
Does anybody know if Kuja gets credit for Garland nominations? Because I'd guess that Garland has at least Ultros level of support, and if so, that means that Kuja is overseeded.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:20:22 PM | Message Detail
Okay, I just made that assumption because Zell placed second in an FFVIII character poll, I believe. :P (and, if you haven't assumed already, I know PotDs aren't accurate)

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:21:13 PM | Message Detail
Being only at the beginning of Disc 3 in FFIX, I have no idea.

On a side note, Kuja is probably my favorite character in the contest at the moment.
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BtT: 3:43.45 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2005 10:54:01 PM | Message Detail
Alrighty, so here's the vote totals for the classic "Noble Nine".

Name: Votes For / Votes Against / % For
Link . . . . . . . . . . . . 1163041 . 500320 . 69.92%
Cloud . . . . .. . . . . . 1081824 . 499134 . 68.43%
Sephiroth . . . .. . . . 966978 . . 403106 . 70.58%
Mega Man . . . . . . . 771849 . . 465998 . 62.35%
Mario . . . . .. . . . . . 721255 . . 517726 . 58.21%
Samus. . . . . . . . . . 717460 . . 474476 . 60.19%
Crono . . . . . . . . . . 689832 . . 406784 . 62.91%
S. Snake . . . . . . . . 645223 . . 429543 . 60.03%
Sonic . . . . . .. . . . . 540587 . . 408075 . 56.98%

Link on top is far too obvious, Cloud second is as well.

Sephiroth 3rd, no surprise, and the fact that he also has the best % in the group (and theby quite likely of all time) should also be no surprise. Just proves that he can blow them out like the best of them but he just can't be put asunder.

MM, well, whta can be said? A lot of that has to do with the massive blow outs he has gotten in his days, and the fact that even though he seems to be slipping away from the big boys he's still murder on his lessers.

Mario, poor Mario. Of all the N9 he has the highest votes against. Seeing how as anyone who even contends for one of those coveted elite spots that isn't listed here has certianly been in fewer matches it's easy to say that no character has been voted agaisnt more than Mario.

I expected Samus to be above Mario. They've had an equal number of matches but two of his were in the weak 2k2 year and two of hers were in the noticably stronger 2k4 year (both had the same number in 2k3). I guess that the exicitement of the early CvM matches put him well over the top despite all that.

Crono does quite respectably in the % For catagory, being the highest of the non-big three grouping. He also has the fewest votes against him other than Sephiroth. Perhaps Crono is the Sephiroth of the non-big 3s. Maybe he can't be the winner of his "tier", but he also gives the least ground which gives him a repectable % of the voters.

Snake is Snake. Just generally unimpressive altogether. However his comparison with Sonic is great. In every year outside of 2k2 they made it to the same round. Having only one more match than Sonic he still nets 100k more votes in favor and only 20k more against. If these numbers were a bit more solid I'd give the advantage to Snake with ease. Of course we know that 2k3 was miserable for Sonic (one of the toughest paths possible and a questionable, to me, match with Cloud) and that was the big vote getting year, but the % speaks the same thing. If not for the most recent results saying otherwise I'd just call him plain old weak.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/2/2005 12:24:10 AM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1988
CATS 28.21% 198
M. Bison 24.79% 174
Master Hand 17.66% 124
Officer Tenpenny 12.39% 87
Ultros 16.95% 119
TOTAL VOTES 702

CATS is winning for now which is no surprize. M. Bison is a close second. For a person so heavily favoured to win his first match, he's not doing that well.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/2/2005 12:25:17 AM | Message Detail
Go Master Hand, Go Master Hand, GO!!!!!

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:53:50 AM | Message Detail
Anybody else find it weird that Tenpenny is doing the worst of 'em so far?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:55:26 AM | Message Detail
Anybody else find it weird that Tenpenny is doing the worst of 'em so far?

Not really. It's only 7 o' clock.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 3:58:28 AM | Message Detail
True 'nuff. I'll wait 'til the poll closes until I look into this one much...and I'm not sure how trustworthy it even is.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
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From: cyko | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:24:58 AM | Message Detail
lol, well CATS was actually winning for a while, but i bet that Master Hand will also pass him by the end of the day. i get the feeling that Ceej picked these characters for this poll because they are the lower seeded characters to have the most bracket predictions behind them. if that's true though, then i wonder two things: first of all, do that many brackets really have CATS winning or is Ceej trying to be funny? also, where are Diablo, Wesker, and Sin? did nobody really pick those guys to win? if so, all three of those matches could be big bracket-breakers.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:30:06 AM | Message Detail
I think he left out Diablo for reasons of suspense...but I think you may be onto something about Sin and Wesker, maybe. Time'll tell, but you could be right about that; I certainly wouldn't figure MH got more brackets against Kuja than Sin did against Robo though.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
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From: MyWorldIsSega | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:38:31 AM | Message Detail
24 Hours!!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:42:03 AM | Message Detail
^LESS ACTUALLY!!!!!
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/2/2005 4:56:51 AM | Message Detail
And why Bison, anyway? It's fairly obvious he's winning his first match... unless Albedo has lots of bracket support... whatever. It's best not to try to figure out Ceej's mind.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/2/2005 5:04:48 AM | Message Detail
i almost want to change my bracket to CATS now. Not necessarily because of this poll, but just on the general principle that it's CATS. If ever he deserved a win, now would be the time.

Interested side note:

Has there ever been any indication other than a poor first round performance against Cloud that CATS actually is an oober weak character? Theoretically he could be pretty strong if you selectively compared matches. If you were to only look at Cloud vs. CATS, Cloud vs. Link, Link vs. Ganon, Ganon vs. Magus, and all the rest of Magus' matches, I'll bet you would actually get a fairly high x-stat for CATS. Not that I sincerely believe he's worth half a crap in these contests, but it's fun to create theories. >_>

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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 0/0 Next Pick: Bowser
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/2/2005 5:15:13 AM | Message Detail
Not even 20% against Ryu should be enough.

Here are some X-Sts projections:

20.39% against Ryu (according to 2004)
22.56% against Sora
28.03% against Tails
31.00% against Viewtiful Joe
33.09% against Max Payne
33.96% against Vyse
42.70% against Laharl
45.41% against Gordon Freeman
49.27% against Luca Blight
51.11% against Ryo Hazuki
59.65% against Guybrush Threepwood
85.54% against Tanner
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/2/2005 5:50:24 AM | Message Detail
That couldn't possibly be based on just the matches I said. Without SFF adjustment of course. Anyways, it's not important either way. Here's a poll I found interesting just now...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=841

Not so much the huge lead that Auron has, but Tidus placing 3rd and Yuna placing like 5th or 6th (can't remember now). Although, Yuna is a pretty crappy character and it's amplified by the voice acting. Final Fantasy characters are just hit or miss I guess. Either you love em or you hate em.
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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 0/0 Next Pick: Bowser
From: Yesmar | Posted: 5/2/2005 6:11:56 AM | Message Detail
Eeek. The phrasing of the poll ("Who would you like to see pull off a major upset?") really has be worried about Albedo Vs. M. Bison. I would have never thought he would get this much support. Oh well, I'll check the poll later. Maybe this is just the same thing that happened in SF2 Vs. SMRPG.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/2/2005 6:13:51 AM | Message Detail
Which underdog would you most like to see pull off a major upset in the Spring Contest?
CATS 21.61% 1974
M. Bison 24.68% 2254
Master Hand 22.52% 2057
Officer Tenpenny 13.98% 1277
Ultros 17.2% 1571
TOTAL VOTES 9133

Wow, this poll is really frickin' close, except for Tenpenny. Keep in mind though that there's a big different between wanting to see an upset and actually believing there will be an upset. CATS, MH, and Tenpenny have no chance whatsoever at an upset, Ultros has a tiny chance, and M. Bison is almost guaranteed the "upset".
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/2/2005 6:15:42 AM | Message Detail
There's also a big difference between the 2K votes that M.Bison has in this poll versus the 80K votes that will be cast in his match...
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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 0/0 Next Pick: Bowser
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/2/2005 6:48:21 AM | Message Detail
When's E3 already? There's a rumor going around that Diablo 3 could be announced there...
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/2/2005 6:58:23 AM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:56:51 AM | Message Detail
And why Bison, anyway? It's fairly obvious he's winning his first match... unless Albedo has lots of bracket support... whatever. It's best not to try to figure out Ceej's mind.


I'm assuming that every character in this poll has the bracket disadvantage.

And if that's the case, look at the characters not in the poll: Diablo, Sin, and Vergil. I would have laughed my ass off if.... say Ridley had found his way into this poll. The board would have exploded a day early.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:13:53 AM | Message Detail
Had Ridley been on this poll, I'll be honest, I would have changed my bracket instantly if he wasn't signifigantly winning over Bison. Regardless, I think Diablo was kept off for suspense and suspense only, though he probably does have the bracket-advantage.

Gotta hand it to him; I'm still anxious to see him.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:20:54 AM | Message Detail
Snowflake, Im still waiting for Starcraft Ghost personally. Blizzard gotten a bit slow lately.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:24:33 AM | Message Detail
If Ridley were not a Nintendo character, that match wouldn't even be in question. That's practically the only thing he has going for him.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: MyWorldIsSega | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:28:22 AM | Message Detail
And what does Diablo have? A piggyback ride from Starcraft, as all of you claim..yeah, what the **** ever. -____-'

-Tai
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:30:03 AM | Message Detail
You can say that about quite afew characters though. There have only been rare times where a Nintendo character was puny-looking in these contests...Captain Olimar and Tom Nook/Mr. Resetti come to mind, and CO is bound to be stronger than what he showed (though that doesn't mean much, since he's bound to suck regardless). I don't think there's really any other cases. Ridley is undoubtedly stronger than them and has more potential than they ever did, too.

It'll be interesting to see if that potential comes through, though I think Diablo's the one who's relying on potential more.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
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From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:30:24 AM | Message Detail
Diablo has two of the most popular PC games ever named after him.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:31:27 AM | Message Detail
Oh...Pikachu. No comment there; he's hated like R. Kelly pissing on Michael Jackson around here.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: MyWorldIsSega | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:31:56 AM | Message Detail
It'll be interesting to see if that potential comes through, though I think Diablo's the one who's relying on potential more.

Exactly.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:35:16 AM | Message Detail
Diablo has two of the most popular PC games ever named after him.

Zelda has one of the most popular console games of each generation named after her AND is top-tier in SSBM (well, Sheik, but she comes with the territory)...yet there's reason to believe she's weaker than her stats already show (assuming her stats aren't inflated, I think she was supposed to be at Alucard's level in 2k3?). I know that's still good, but if she can have all of that going for her and only be that strong, I don't see how Diablo is goin' to do better than Tails, who I think would be Ridley's equal.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:43:16 AM | Message Detail
I'm surprised M. Bison is among those other characters. I'm also disappointed that Ultros is 4th place right now. Ahead of Tenpenny, at least...ooh, the day vote had better not drop Ultros to 5th. :[

But, I think there SHOULD have some sort of consistancy with prediction percentage data going on here (see a PotD during Sp2K4)...it could be:

1)Diablo, Wesker, Sin, and Ghaleon might all be the favorites (most likely), or, if they aren't favorites, their wins wouldn't have as low of a prediction percentage as the characters on the PotD.
2)Diablo, Wesker, Sin, and Ghaleon are TREMENDOUS underdogs; moreso than those already on the list list.
3)No real pattern...

I think the 1st option's the most likely...

Well, I guess I'll be changing some of my predictions for the Prediction Percentage Challenge soon. :P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:47:43 AM | Message Detail
I think this board as a rule underestimates PC games and their fans, since this board is made up of a lot of Nintendo and Square/Console RPG fans. Starcraft surprised people by its popularity. Half-Life got a bad draw and I think could of been at least a second rounder. Of course Guybrush has never done anything, and Gordon Freeman is a running joke so maybe its a game thing not a character thing. I still have more faith in Diablo however. He is an extremely weak division. Im almost contemplating putting Wesker over Kefka in this division and Wesker only major roles were in the original RE and the two least liked REs (CV and Zero). I just think that Diablo being the main bad guy of Diablo II which was huge is better than being a sub-boss (and thats exactly what Ridley is, a sub-boss) to Metroid when one of my friends who has played Metroid Prime couldnt pick it him out of a list of characters. Ridley is just a boss on the way and I can never see how amounting to much.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:52:08 AM | Message Detail
This Metroid talk makes me wish Mother Brain would have been in today's poll instead of CATS.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: NewLib | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:54:03 AM | Message Detail
In all honesty, I think a metroid would garner more support than Ridley or Mother Brain.
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I dont like Silent Hill, but come on look at Pyramid Head. His head is a pyramid. How can you NOT vote for that?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 7:59:23 AM | Message Detail
In all honesty, I think a metroid would garner more support than Ridley or Mother Brain.

I said the exact same thing afew topics ago. I stand by it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:04:20 AM | Message Detail
I get so sick of seeing that Zelda argument everywhere. Do you realize how well Zelda did in the contest? 40% on Mega Man isn't exactly easy to do. And I say again, it's EXTREMELY difficult to break into the upper tier of characters. Those characters are INSANELY popular. The characters that Zelda ranks around are VERY popular. Her name apparently does hold SOME type of strength for her to do that.

Now as for Diablo, it's not exactly like he's facing a Mega Man in this match, he's facing Ridley. It might not even take much name/game recognition for him to be able to get past Ridley...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:06:35 AM | Message Detail
In all honesty, I think a metroid would garner more support than Ridley or Mother Brain.

I said the exact same thing afew topics ago. I stand by it.


I thought I was the one who brought up the Metroid probably doing better in the contest...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:13:11 AM | Message Detail
...? I thought for sure I did...well, screw it; we all brought it up. Simultaniously. In unison.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:22:17 AM | Message Detail
Her facing Mega Man could be part of the reason why she's over-rated, if Link/Mega Man and Lara/Samus are a sign of anything. What I'm saying though is that the Diablo series (on PC with a PSX port, I think) would be hard-pressed to be as popular as most any LoZ game (LoZ, LoZ:LttP, LoZ:OoT, and LoZ:WW very well COULD be out of Diablo's reach...and LoZ:MM, maybe). From there, Zelda is more involved with many of her game than Diablo is to my understanding (and, for ****s and giggles, let's mention the less-informed ones who think Link is Zelda). Last, after all of that, Zelda also has SSBM to help her out, whereas Diablo doesn't.

I feel like all I just did was elaborate on my last post about this a lil' more, but if Zelda has so many more advantages over Diablo and still is only as strong as Alucard (again, this is assuming she ISN'T inflated a lil'), then Diablo gonna be far worse off. I suspect Ridley is gonna be right in line with Tails...and I think Diablo lacking the advantages Zelda has is what will bite him in his ass; if he beats Ridley, I figure it'll be because of fansites/B.net before anything else.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:33:56 AM | Message Detail
Oh, I agree that Diablo won't be nearly as strong as Zelda. I know Zelda has a lot of things going for her. The thing that I am wondering about is why would people automatically assume that Ridley would be around Tails in strength? Step outside of the box and think about it for a second....

It shouldn't take much to be able to beat Ridley.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:36:23 AM | Message Detail
Diablo and Ridley are bother weak bastards.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:39:07 AM | Message Detail
Scary to think that Albedo may have the bracket advantage. Can people really be this stupid?
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/2/2005 8:41:37 AM | Message Detail
Likewise, it shouldn't take much to beat Diablo. Neither one of them will be power-houses...but why Ridley = Tails?

It feels right.

I don't have much other reason; I mean, I wouldn't take Ridley over Luigi, so there goes alot of potential...then I would take Ridley over Kefka in a close one (which I've done, heh), and Tails is supposed to be just a lil' stronger than Kefka. Add to it that I don't think Ridley would be much lower down the food-chain from Samus than being at Tails's strength, and that's all the logic I have on that.

In short: instinct and somewhat-educated guesses.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/2/2005 9:01:06 AM | Message Detail
RIDLEY
http://www.n-retro.com/imagenes/ridley.jpg

versus

DIABLO http://www.real-women-lingerie.co.uk/panache/AW03%20JPEG%20PICTURES/images/A%20Diablo%20%201.jpg

Ridley has no chance.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
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