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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 112
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:14:26 PM | Message Detail
Skies got in under the DreamCast, who's only other game IIRC was Soul Calibur. The Lunars had to compete with each other (unlike, say, Suikoden, there's no real favorite) as well as the multitude of PSX games that got in.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:16:11 PM | Message Detail
Skies got in under the DreamCast, who's only other game IIRC was Soul Calibur.

Shenmue, a game that sold 500,000 copies, but whose main character is still weaker than Vyse, a character from his own company with a game that sold half as much even counting a port.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:16:20 PM | Message Detail
I don't know who I'd take in a Vyse/Vergil match, but I know I'd take Vyse in a Vyse/Ghaleon match.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:16:37 PM | Message Detail
Gah, I was previously thinking of changing my bracket to Vergil after all of that debate, but I'm back on the fence, slightly favoring Ghaleon. My bias is greatly toward Ghaleon as a character, so I think I'll end up keeping him.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:17:33 PM | Message Detail
I'd feel uneasy taking Vyse over Vergil, though I probably would. I'd have no doubts about taking Vyse over Ghaleon.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:34:07 PM | Message Detail
Can we agree that Vergil would be about Jak's level, give or take a lil'?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:35:14 PM | Message Detail
No, we can't. We're not supposed to agree.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:35:42 PM | Message Detail
I would just like to say, that if Akuma were in Bison's place, the winner of the Ruin Division wouldn't be in doubt right now.


And putting Vergil around Jak's level pretty much leads me to believe the this match is a toss-up.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:36:56 PM | Message Detail
No, I'm not going to agree with that, because after adjusting Auron up Jak's around 21% on 2k3 Link.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:37:35 PM | Message Detail
Well, suddenly Jak's position isn't good to look at anymore. <.<

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:38:44 PM | Message Detail
I would think Ghaleon would give Jak a good run for his money, and I think Vergil would do the same. I by no means think Ghaleon is going to win this thing 55/45. What I do think is you have to go against the grain somewhere, and this seems like the ideal place for me to do that. After looking at the situation, I have assessed Ghaleon's floor and ceiling, Vergil's floor and ceiling, and since there is a lot between those two that overlap, I will give the 'upset' a try.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:50:17 PM | Message Detail
Oh, ****; I forgot Jak goes up too. Dang...well, give or take a lil', Vergil would be on Vyse's level?

Man...so, Jak could beat Kefka according to the X-stats? That's...um, that's weird.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:50:39 PM | Message Detail
Plus, like me, I'd bet that you'd rather take the better villain and miss a point then risk taking the "sure shot" and hate yourself if it goes wrong.

And don't talk any smack to me, I've played DMC, Ghaleon is simply one of the best villains ever.

Oh, and so we're all clear on this, the half million number is clearly based on all versions of Lunar 1 on all systems. Still an impressive feat for any non-Square RPG.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:54:25 PM | Message Detail
Man...so, Jak could beat Kefka according to the X-stats? That's...um, that's weird.

Why? Because Kefka's not SUPPOSED to be that weak? The same reason you wouldn't take any other FF villain over him?
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:57:29 PM | Message Detail
Nah, this is by my reckoning, which would put Kefka at 23%, ahead of Jak's 21%. And that was me that would take Kefka (or equivalent -- Ness or Yuna work) over any non-Sephiroth FF villain.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 8:59:22 PM | Message Detail
I don't think HaRRicH feels any differently than you do about it. But still, I gotta wonder why it's not that hard to see that Kefka's not all that respected. He'd have to put up the fight of his life just to beat Ramza, the main character of a FF game you could consider to be cult.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:02:18 PM | Message Detail
I know Kefka's weak, but I don't see why any other FF villain would be stronger. Kefka's got a lot going for him and he's a pushover; why would somebody with much less going for him be stronger?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:03:18 PM | Message Detail
I don't think the PSX FF villains have less going for them than Kefka does.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:05:52 PM | Message Detail
Eh, I'd take Kuja over Kefka with a great deal of confidence. And I personally don't care for either one.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:06:14 PM | Message Detail
I said it more because Jak would be able to make for a possible run in the Top Thirty-Two than anything else; Kefka was just the most surprising name I could think of in that instant that Jak would probably beat with that strength.

Ramza, the main character of a FF game you could consider to be cult.

That game'd be FFT, the same game that was 38 votes away from Metal Gear Solid. FFT = not cult.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:07:31 PM | Message Detail
That game'd be FFT, the same game that was 38 votes away from Metal Gear Solid. FFT = not cult.

Compared to the rest of the series, you could consider it cult.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:07:38 PM | Message Detail
Sure they do. Their games (VIII, IX, and X) aren't nearly as popular as Kefka's.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:08:42 PM | Message Detail
Since the contest was pushed back a couple days, I decided to work overtime on seeing if I can get something up for this contest. So contrary to what I said earlier, I might have something up later; I've been working on it this whole weekend.



BTW, on the "percentages not adding up to 100%" thing that people were discussing earlier in this topic. This is almost certainly NOT a rounding error--or at least, not solely a rounding error. This is a very probably a MySQL error, combined with rounding. I explained this in the original discussion, way back.

MySQL is fast, but voting comes real fast. The query for getting the vote totals for each person can be a tad slow, and give an outdated value (by a fraction of a second), if two separate queries are being run. I have firsthand experience with queries where this has happened.

So what you get is a situation where the vote quantities displayed don't match the vote quantities being used to calculate the percentages. Combined with rounding, this makes 100+% errors possible. And the faster the voting is coming in, the more likely the errors.

Percentages adding up to over 100% would not be possible just by rounding.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:09:04 PM | Message Detail
Hello there, characters =/= games
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:10:42 PM | Message Detail
Kefka's game gets casual support. Kefka doesn't. Why would this be any different for Kuja, except that there's even less "hardcore" support going for him?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:11:55 PM | Message Detail
You're just talking potential, which has very little to do with actual performance.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:12:32 PM | Message Detail
Before I respond to anything here, anyone know the sales figures for Final Fantasy III (VI) in the US for SNES?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:13:39 PM | Message Detail
How am I talking about potential? How many times do I have to say that I know that Kefka is weak?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:14:21 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:15:18 PM | Message Detail
Kefka has the potential to be stronger than the other FF villains because his game is more popular. It doesn't necessarily mean he would be.

Would you take Squall over Tidus?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:15:57 PM | Message Detail
FFVI sold 810,000 copies in the US. But in its defense, emulation should have been very nice to both Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:16:33 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Tidus. Aeris/Tidus I'd be iffy on.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:19:12 PM | Message Detail
And while we're at it, Vergil has a greater potential to be strong than Ghaleon does because DMC is more popular, but yet you're taking the latter.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:21:09 PM | Message Detail
So 810k from SNES, another 250k from PSX, and who knows how many from emulation... one for sure =)

So with over one million copies of FFVI out there, it is no sales slouch. I guess the only thing Kefka has going against him is... his annoying laugh? He looks like a clown? Somebody please enlighten me why he does so poorly in these contests.

He is a kick ass villain, who comes from a Square Final Fantasy RPG that sold rather well. This has all the makings of a top notch competitor. So why the heck does he suck so much?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:21:14 PM | Message Detail
Because I think Ghaleon would be much closer to his game than Vergil to his. I don't think Kuja, for example, would be appreciably closer to FFIX than Kefka is to FFVI.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:22:15 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Aeris in Tidus/Aeris.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:27:22 PM | Message Detail
So you don't think anybody else from any of the PSX FFs falls between Vivi and Kefka other than Yuna?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:29:49 PM | Message Detail
Tifa, Vincent, Zidane, and perhaps Seifer or Rinoa, though I would doubt those two.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:30:56 PM | Message Detail
*thinks Tifa would be above Vivi*
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:32:08 PM | Message Detail
You think Vincent and Tifa would be noticeably below Aeris?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:33:55 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:34:43 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:34:48 PM | Message Detail
Percentages adding up to over 100% would not be possible just by rounding.

Hypothetically if you had exactly 50.005%-49.995% and assuming it always rounds up on a 5, wouldn't you get 50.01-50.00? And if it doesn't always round up on a 5, how does it determine how to round?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:34:55 PM | Message Detail
Nevermind, I suppose 4% is indeed noticeable. But yes, yes I do.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:38:54 PM | Message Detail
I dunno, but it seems to me like you're making character popularity proportional to game popularity. I don't see why that would hold true.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:42:15 PM | Message Detail
Some proportion exists between games and characters, whether we know it or not. And Kuja would have to be much closer to FFIX than Kefka is to FFVI to be able to beat Kefka, and I don't see why that would be the case.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:46:28 PM | Message Detail
Eh, we don't even know where FFIX truly stands anyway. We're just going by a poll of the day that would give us a decent idea of the pecking order for the FF games, but couldn't give us a definite idea of actual strength.

I think it's possible for Kuja to be closer to FFIX than Kefka is to FFVI because the fanbase is so spread out in its deep character cast.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:48:34 PM | Message Detail
I'm looking forward to whatever you're working on, creative.

Wow, everyone's saying Vergil is really weak? Vergil might be weaker than VYSE?! Well, thanks for telling me today. :P Meh...urghhh...er, I mean, go Ghaleon!!!

Skies got in under the DreamCast, who's only other game IIRC was Soul Calibur.
That reminds me...in case anyone didn't figure it out by now, Soul Calibur made it in over SCII because Dreamcast had very little competition for nominations...I bet SC got a bunch of arcade nominations, as well.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:50:53 PM | Message Detail
Oracle news

A little friendly reminder to the following regular contestants from last season that they have yet to make a single prediction:

bigbadbear
Claude Rena
Duffer11
FastFalcon05
Fantusta
GoldSlime35
Master Moltar
Ngamer64
NT220
ps2rulezzz
Reaper xZ
TenkoStar17
The n00b Avenger
Yesmar

I know that some of them post here every once in a while and might have forgotten.
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SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle)
SC2k4 - 12th place!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:55:54 PM | Message Detail
I personally think Vincent would be above Aeris and that Tifa would be awfully close though a bit short of her. As for FF characters between Vivi and Kefka...

Terra, Cid, Barret, Seifer, Zidane, Kuja, Yuna, Rikka

At least. Prolly a few more. Maybe a few of those would be higher.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
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