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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 112
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 5:54:43 PM | Message Detail
Lunar:SSSC sold half a million (I have no idea how much EBC sold), so we're not talking Suikoden II's 90,000 here. I don't know how much DMC3 sold either, but I do know that it's been completely overshadowed by God of War.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 5:58:02 PM | Message Detail
...and MGS3 was completely over-shadowed by GTA:SA. Try to make that point to Revolver Ocelot.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: The Wise Tonberry | Posted: 5/1/2005 5:59:09 PM | Message Detail
Ya know, at first I had Ghaleon over Vergil, but for some reason, I just felt that an older less known game's villain would lose to something more current.
---
Teenage love was underground...
...tonight I break the surface.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:00:52 PM | Message Detail
I have little doubt that Ghaleon will be stronger than Luca Blight, but I still don't think he has what it takes to beat Vergil. Lunar is an old game, and Vergil was in the original DMC, from what I hear.
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:00:56 PM | Message Detail
I do think that Tenpenny is going to do rather well on Ocelot, and was the victim of unfortunate seeding. Regardless, SA and MGS3 are not in the same genre; GoW and DMC3 are.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:01:22 PM | Message Detail
On Liquid, you mean.
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:02:53 PM | Message Detail
Doh, Tenpenny is going to do well on Liquid. I suppose that doesn't have much to do with MGS3 and SA.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:04:59 PM | Message Detail
Other than offering a decent explanation on Liquid's arm. Of course, I can't say anything else without spoiling it, and I know you're in the middle of playing MGS3.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:08:21 PM | Message Detail
Tenpenny will almost certainly avoid the doubling by Liquid; I expect him to do alright, too.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:17:08 PM | Message Detail
It's a shame that the rest of teh game couldn't be quite as awesome.

It was... until the final boss >.<
---
I DUN WANNA KNO, WAT DEY SAY NONO I DUN CAIR
*is Janus5000*
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:18:56 PM | Message Detail
Yes, the final boss was lame, but at least the fight with Bowser right before that made up for it.

Still, the last fight with Bowser in the first Paper Mario ranks as one of my favorites of all-time. That was just awesome.
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:33:17 PM | Message Detail
To compare, DMC3 and GoW, here are how much each sold for the month of March.

God of War (PS2) 214,028
Devil May Cry 3 (PS2) 252,006

Neither were particularly huge and I hope they have enough legs to sell more - particularly DMC3, since I'm big on Capcom and what not.



---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:35:08 PM | Message Detail
What company makes GoW, by the way?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:36:42 PM | Message Detail
SCEA - Sony.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:40:51 PM | Message Detail
I thought for sure either Konami or Capcom made it...huh. Interesting enough.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:44:20 PM | Message Detail
So how much has DMC3 sold thus far?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:46:06 PM | Message Detail
I still decree that, in less than a week, Ghaleon ekes out a victory. Ghaleon has been in multiple games, one of which that sold admirably to boot (since I have seen that 500k figure on SSSC a few times now, I will assume it is accurate). I think Ghaleon's absolute floor is a few percentage points above Luca Blight. Suikoden II epitomizes cult. He has Suikoden II; nary a mention in I, III or IV. Hell, III and IV aren't even terribly related to II. Sales data means little, but under 100k copies is still under 100k copies. Ghaleon has been on multiple systems as well, spanning Sega, Sony and Nintendo. Exposure will not be an issue in this match. The issue will merely be who is more popular. Luca is just not known by enough of the voting public, something that I fully expect Ghaleon to not suffer from.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:48:18 PM | Message Detail
Right now, we only have the March numbers to go by. We won't get April numbers until about mid-May - long after the actual match.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:49:08 PM | Message Detail
Ah, I thought it came out in February. My bad.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:52:41 PM | Message Detail
Very few non-Square RPG entities do well in these polls. I highly doubt that Ghaleon will perform worth a damn.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:55:08 PM | Message Detail
I don't think he'll be anything to brag about (60% on Luca puts him around 17.5% on 2k3 Link), but why would Vergil be any better?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:55:50 PM | Message Detail
http://eg.nttpub.co.jp/news/image/20041005_04_12.jpg

No one who has played either DMC game (we'll disregard DMC2) is going to look at that picture and not know who Vergil is. I'd be shocked if Ghaleon did anything in that match.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:56:13 PM | Message Detail
Recency of a huge release and the fact that DMC3 sold half as many copies in one month as Ghaleon's best-selling appearance.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:56:29 PM | Message Detail
I checked a previous e-mail I got from Capcom with their total franchise sales. Under Devil May Cry, the franchise, it has sold 5 million units worldwide including the likes of DMC3.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 6:56:36 PM | Message Detail
I don't think he is going to have to even perform worth a damn. He isn't up against a Square villain. He is up against the villain who's hero is in the upper half of the 2nd third of Summer contest characters, and Dante has been the protagonist in three games. If Vergil wins, it will be solely because I underestimated his strength. Ghaleon will perform exactly how I think he will: as a solid 60/40 winner on Luca Blight.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:01:09 PM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 9:55:08 PM | Message Detail
I don't think he'll be anything to brag about (60% on Luca puts him around 17.5% on 2k3 Link), but why would Vergil be any better?


Devil May Cry has one of the highest sales:release ratios of any series in gaming. A whole hell of a lot of people know who Vergil is, and Ghaleon is from a cult RPG. I can't recall the last time a non-Square RPG entity in any Poll of the Day (contest poll or not) did anything. It's a very rare occurrence.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:02:32 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:04:46 PM | Message Detail
That's a huge spoiler man.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:05:56 PM | Message Detail
>_>

Do you know, HM?
---
Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:06:23 PM | Message Detail
Thank godness I have no desire to play DMC... or else seeing that might have severely pissed me off.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:06:26 PM | Message Detail
Yes, it's talked about in DMC about someone who turned someone into someone else.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:07:14 PM | Message Detail
Thank you.
---
Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:07:25 PM | Message Detail
Exposure will not be an issue in this match.

Will too! </2nd grand>


Seriously though, DMC3 alone will probably sell more in three months than Lunar's 500,000 sales total. I know, this match isn't three months from now...but Vergil also has DMC1 to help him (which I know's sold alot), and considering DMC is much newer and surely more popular (neverminding the fact that Vergil looks cooler than Ghaleon), and I doubt Ghaleon's older 500,000 will mean much.

I don't see Jak beating Vergil, and Jak's got 17.20% on Link supposedly. I don't buy Ghaleon over Jak, either...as well as Conker, Sam Fisher, or Pac-Man.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:07:51 PM | Message Detail
A whole hell of a lot of people know how Wily and Robotnik are, but I don't think anybody gives them any credit. I don't think recognizability is an issue here.

As for a non-Square RPG doing well, I'd point you to KOS-MOS, who's not half bad, and Tales of Symphonia in the GC GotY poll.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:09:03 PM | Message Detail
Guru List:

01 - UltimateralizerX
02 - Team Rocket Elite
03 - MasterMage119
04 - HaRRicH
05 - Haste2
06 - RPGuy96
07 - H4L187
08 - cyko
09 - Robazoid
10 - Janus5000
11 - DomaDragoon
12 - Mithrandir1331
13 - Nightmare 45
14 - Starion
15 - King Morgoth
16 - Fiop
17 - yoblazer33
18 - Phediuk
19 - FastFalcon05
20 - imdapartystar
21 - smitelf
22 - jonthomson
23 - Mister Mario
24 - nh82
25 - Shake
26 - stepintothearena
27 - Rufus Shinra 18
28 - charmander6000
29 - Sephirot1
30 - Tediz247
31 - ExThaNemesis
32 - Kuge
33 - SwanMocker
34 - JonthePenguin
35 - ChocoCid
36 - Ngamer
37 - CaptainFlufflez
38 - ExquisiteSamurai
39 - Young Boy
40 - Kaxon
41 - Shdwdde
42 - Garsha
43 - FFDragon
44 - Steinershocker
45 - Sir Bormun
46 - swirldude
47 - Heroic Mario
48 - Weird Kirby Dude11
49 - arkenaga
50 - Taslion
51 - perdevious
52 - Meche313
53 - Mumei
54 - MegatokyoED
55 - Z1mZum
56 - RamzaB
57 - nifboy
58 - Paratroopa1
59 - A Hogasm IN POG FORM
60 - greatone10
61 - VicPez
62 - Samurai7
63 - Master Moltar
64 - Yesmar
65 - RPGGamer0
66 - Zylo the wolf
67 - Fantusta
68 - Mac Arrowny
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - Redtooth
71 - Blade X
72 - TheCalmness
73 - Qwaar
74 - Tai
75 - Lieutenant Kettch
76 - Neoatomtaco
77 - ScorpionX3
78 - Fett0001
79 - neonreaper
80 - zMega64
81 - Smurf
82 - Aprosenf
83 - Buzzup
84 - mrbird99
85 - octoinky
86 - irriadin
87 - dethwing
88 - Steve Illumina
89 - Cavemanbob
90 - The Wise Tonberry
91 - iGenesis
92 - Heroic Viktor (tnote827)
93 - PugTheNinja
94 - Ringworm
95 - Silverflame
96 - ImSoBlazed
97 - Andaca
98 - Tjian
99 - MacrosTheBlack
100 - Forceful Dragon
101 - red sox 777
102 - NewLib
103 - Sir Chris

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:10:33 PM | Message Detail
I by no means am saying that Ghaleon will be known by more people than Vergil. I am merely saying Luca Blight suffers from not being known enough, something that Ghaleon will not suffer from. Whether or not this mindset has one choosing Ghaleon or Vergil as the Viktor is for each of us to decide.

For me, I think that Ghaleon is not cult enough such that enough people who know him will vote him over Vergil. I think the exact same thing about Luca Blight, with the difference being Luca is not well known enough for his godly-villain status to mean anything.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:10:43 PM | Message Detail
Well, recognizability and likeability are two different things. Wily and Robotnik are very recognizable, but that doesn't mean people like them. Ghaleon may be likeable by those who know him, but he's not all that recognizable.

Plus, a well-timed release can work wonders. Just ask Mario.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:10:47 PM | Message Detail
KOS-MOS broke the top thirty-two once in the three contests either she or her game have been involved in. She's no force...and neither will be Albedo, and I'd take him over Ghaleon quickly.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:14:20 PM | Message Detail
Mario is the only time we've had a "well-timed release" boost someone, and that was on the same day as his match. It subsided against Crono and Link, mere days later. I don't think the recency of DMC3 is going to matter all that much.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:15:17 PM | Message Detail
But just to estimate, I would wager that DMC3 will have sold somewhere around 200,000 copies for April - this is due to Sony's insane PS2 sales per month - bringing the total to something around 450,000 total. That's just my prediction on the matter, but it should be noted that DMC3 has, at the least, sold 100,000 more copies than the number I listed. April is already over and the sales are being calculated right now.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:16:58 PM | Message Detail
HM, this is the part where you make up sales figures, telling everyone DMC has sold an astounding 16 million copies in April, to ensure everyone keeps Vergil.

Come on now... use your powers for evil, not good!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:18:01 PM | Message Detail
Mario is the only time we've had a "well-timed release" boost someone, and that was on the same day as his match. It subsided against Crono and Link, mere days later. I don't think the recency of DMC3 is going to matter all that much.

It'll make a difference considering Vergil's opponent is not all that well-known.
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:18:43 PM | Message Detail
On that recency matter, I think after seeing IGN reader's Top 100 games, I'd say they are very inclined to have go with what's recent more than anything. The majority of the Top 10 is new games, such as God of War, Resident Evil 4, and Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. For what it is worth, DMC3 finished at #27.


Although, don't look at this as enforcing a point for either side. I just felt it might be something to look at.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:18:44 PM | Message Detail
To be fair about well-timed releases, Viewtiful Joe being released on the PS2 five days before VJ/Tails didn't help him.


Interesting info: today's poll is gettin' close to breaking 50,000 already...yesterday's poll didn't break 40,000. Add to it this lil' gem (put the two lines together...and I threw in Gamespot for the pure hell of it):

http://www.alexa.com/site/site_stats/signup?site_url=www.gamefaqs.com+www.gamespot.com
&range=1y&widget=g&style=c&submitted=true&mode=graph&range=3m&amzn_id=

Notice the very sharp jump that's hard to see. We COULD be seeing some high vote totals.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:19:15 PM | Message Detail
I thought I had signed up for the guru challenge... oh well.

01 - UltimateralizerX
02 - Team Rocket Elite
03 - MasterMage119
04 - HaRRicH
05 - Haste2
06 - RPGuy96
07 - H4L187
08 - cyko
09 - Robazoid
10 - Janus5000
11 - DomaDragoon
12 - Mithrandir1331
13 - Nightmare 45
14 - Starion
15 - King Morgoth
16 - Fiop
17 - yoblazer33
18 - Phediuk
19 - FastFalcon05
20 - imdapartystar
21 - smitelf
22 - jonthomson
23 - Mister Mario
24 - nh82
25 - Shake
26 - stepintothearena
27 - Rufus Shinra 18
28 - charmander6000
29 - Sephirot1
30 - Tediz247
31 - ExThaNemesis
32 - Kuge
33 - SwanMocker
34 - JonthePenguin
35 - ChocoCid
36 - Ngamer
37 - CaptainFlufflez
38 - ExquisiteSamurai
39 - Young Boy
40 - Kaxon
41 - Shdwdde
42 - Garsha
43 - FFDragon
44 - Steinershocker
45 - Sir Bormun
46 - swirldude
47 - Heroic Mario
48 - Weird Kirby Dude11
49 - arkenaga
50 - Taslion
51 - perdevious
52 - Meche313
53 - Mumei
54 - MegatokyoED
55 - Z1mZum
56 - RamzaB
57 - nifboy
58 - Paratroopa1
59 - A Hogasm IN POG FORM
60 - greatone10
61 - VicPez
62 - Samurai7
63 - Master Moltar
64 - Yesmar
65 - RPGGamer0
66 - Zylo the wolf
67 - Fantusta
68 - Mac Arrowny
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - Redtooth
71 - Blade X
72 - TheCalmness
73 - Qwaar
74 - Tai
75 - Lieutenant Kettch
76 - Neoatomtaco
77 - ScorpionX3
78 - Fett0001
79 - neonreaper
80 - zMega64
81 - Smurf
82 - Aprosenf
83 - Buzzup
84 - mrbird99
85 - octoinky
86 - irriadin
87 - dethwing
88 - Steve Illumina
89 - Cavemanbob
90 - The Wise Tonberry
91 - iGenesis
92 - Heroic Viktor (tnote827)
93 - PugTheNinja
94 - Ringworm
95 - Silverflame
96 - ImSoBlazed
97 - Andaca
98 - Tjian
99 - MacrosTheBlack
100 - Forceful Dragon
101 - red sox 777
102 - NewLib
103 - Sir Chris
104 - Crono801

Adding my name on the end will do for signing up, correct?
---
Preparedness prevents piss poor performance.
If at first you don't succeed, then skydiving is not for you.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:20:07 PM | Message Detail
HM, this is the part where you make up sales figures, telling everyone DMC has sold an astounding 16 million copies in April, to ensure everyone keeps Vergil.

Heh. Sounds like a plan. . . =p

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:20:31 PM | Message Detail
On that recency matter, I think after seeing IGN reader's Top 100 games, I'd say they are very inclined to have go with what's recent more than anything

And then look at Division 128 in the Spring Contest.
---
Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:21:03 PM | Message Detail
so the contest is starting monday night / tuesday morning, right?

the only match that currently has me worried is albedo vs. m.bison. every match before that i'm postive about.
---
|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 0/0 Next Pick: Bowser
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:22:21 PM | Message Detail
http://www.alexa.com/site/site_stats/signup?site_url=www.gamefaqs.com+www.gamespot.com
&range=1m&widget=g&style=c&submitted=true&mode=graph&range=3m&amzn_id=

^^^Shows the jump alot better, but is just for the past month.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 5/1/2005 7:22:31 PM | Message Detail
I can't believe you guys managed to get me nervous about Vergil/Ghaleon.

>_<
---
Volgin is one sexy beast....
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