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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 111
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:24:51 PM | Message Detail
PSX Final Fantasy games are not obscure and are not hated.

Yes they are. Just look at FFVII.

But seriously, I just don't think Kuja will be popular. I don't think PSX games are hated or anything. After all, I chose Vivi in the summer... I don't think I'm underestimating Kuja, I think he will just not be that strong.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:25:35 PM | Message Detail
Ness, by my reckoning, is right between Yuna and Kefka, and I'd take both over Kuja.

Though I doubt you'd have taken Yuna over Kefka before SC2K3. Our estimations for FF character popularity generally haven't been the most accurate.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: jonthomson | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:26:25 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Ness over Kuja.
---
Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:28:18 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'd take Kefka over Yuna, even knowing what I know now, but I think that particular example just proves how little villains are respected, given that VI would dominate X. Sephiroth being the exception, of course.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:31:58 PM | Message Detail
I'd take any post-VII FF character over Ness.

Including the sick man.
---
Shake24m: Can I book you for my eulogy?
TheCrownedKnight: Sure. As long as you stay in the coffin.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:39:07 PM | Message Detail
I had a hard enough time putting Kefka over Pac-Man in my bracket, and I took Yuna over Knuckles that same year. Now that Kefka and Yuna's got a common opponent in Knuckles and Yuna's got another game under her belt, I'd still take her over Kefka.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:40:12 PM | Message Detail
No, the fact that Kefka would struggle to beat the 3rd (heck, maybe even 4th strongest, if Seymour is stronger than Yuna) strongest rep from FFX shows how little respect the pre-PSX era FF characters get. The games are popular, but the characters...not so much.

Heck, look at PC games, and it's the same thing. Half-Life can put up a big fight against Metroid Prime, and Gordon Freeman is the mascot for suckitude in the character contest.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:41:52 PM | Message Detail
Strange that people would be so quick to take Kefka when Yuna did noticeably better. I think people are giving Kefka too much credit because he's SUPPOSED to be stronger than that, but he isn't.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:42:23 PM | Message Detail
Not to mention the fact that Yuna has had FFX-2 since 2003, and she'd beat Kefka without breaking a sweat.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:48:19 PM | Message Detail
Okay, we've got proof that Kefka is weak and his game is strong; does that mean that all pre-FFVII characters are weak or that all FF villains are weak in comparison to their games? I'm tempted to go with the 2nd conclusion, and it then follows that I'd take Kefka over Kuja. It could very well be the first case, in which Kuja would win. We need more data, which this contest should provide through Sin, Kuja, and even Ultros.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:49:22 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:49:40 PM | Message Detail
That doesn't mean post-PSX characters will get more respect every time, though for the most part you're right.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:51:43 PM | Message Detail
Sorry, but when you struggle to beat Yuna coming from the 2nd most popular FF game (and heck, the leading lady is supposed to come after the main character, the main villain, and the fan favorite in the pecking order), and we're dealing with a case of weakness, not just relative to his game. You're telling me you wouldn't take Seymour over Kefka?
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:53:26 PM | Message Detail
I would take Kefka over any FF villain not named Sephiroth. Yes, this means I would take Yuna over Seymour.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:54:22 PM | Message Detail
Meh, that's just picking Kefka based on what he's supposed to be and not what he really is.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:56:48 PM | Message Detail
Kefka's weak; what do we have to say that Kuja won't be just as weak, if not weaker?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:58:34 PM | Message Detail
To be honest, I don't think either you or I saying a pick seems ridiculous can come off not sounding hypocritical... >>;;

I choose those upsets to get my own self some enjoyment. Outside of a winner, I can predict the rest of the bracket to near perfection.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/30/2005 2:59:01 PM | Message Detail
Okay then. You'd take Terra over Squall then? Considering we're talking popularity relative to a game, I guess you would take that pick.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:02:50 PM | Message Detail
If there was a clear main character in FFVI, I would certainly contemplate taking him over Squall or Tidus. Unfortunately, there isn't, and I don't think that the next best thing (Terra or Celes or maybe Locke) would cut it. I'd pick all three of those to beat Kefka quite convincingly, at least.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:03:42 PM | Message Detail
Locke wouldn't beat Kefka. I can tell you that much right now.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:04:24 PM | Message Detail
I'd be more inclined to take Seymour over Kefka than Kuja over Kefka, but I dunno if I'd actually be inclined enough to do it. I'd take Seymour over Sin, but I'm not so sure about putting him over Kefka.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:04:30 PM | Message Detail
Oh? Why not?
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:04:59 PM | Message Detail
I'd take Seymour over Sin

Only an absolute moron wouldn't.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:06:05 PM | Message Detail
Because Locke doesn't cut it as the main character, regardless of what anybody may say. It's either Terra or Celes. Besides, from what I've seen of the FFVI fanbase, Terra and Celes fight it out for first with Kefka behind them.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:11:30 PM | Message Detail
Fair enough. I maintain that all that FFVI support has to channel into somebody, and it's certainly not Kefka. Whether that's the case for FF villains as a whole (sans Sephiroth, though he's still somewhat weak relative to his game) or just Kefka will be resolved in a few weeks.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 3:24:48 PM | Message Detail
Terra would get the most FF3/6 support, methinks. Locke is my favorite, but I don't see his strength doing any better than Kefka.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/30/2005 4:20:23 PM | Message Detail
I know this is completely off-topic, but after playing Gunstar Heroes for the first time...Oh. My. God.

Its 9% or whatever against A Link to the Past was a crime against humanity.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/30/2005 4:27:08 PM | Message Detail
Do you want me to make the appropriate changes to your bracket in the BOP?

Depends on whether or not you think what I posted is what my bracket actually is.

To be fair, when I made that post, that's what my bracket currently said; but I never said I was leaving that way, nor is it out of the question for me to have changed it to what I posted, only to change it back to what I had in the first place.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 4:35:37 PM | Message Detail
So...that means wait for the Guru topic then. Gotcha'. =P

Gunstar Heroes DOES rule; I'm proud to have voted for it, heh. Now, I do think it gets a lil' too much appreciation...but it's still a great game.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/30/2005 4:49:49 PM | Message Detail
On a more serious note, Sin vs Robutt is annoying. If you go down the line with the Sonic/FFX characters we've seen, it's really one-sided.

Sonic would likely beat Auron. Maybe not with ease, but I would never pick Auron to beat him. Screw what the 2003 stats say about Tidus scoring 49% on Sonic; one, Tidus totally craps out against any character that poses a threat, and two, it's yet to be proven that Auron is actually above Tidus in the first place. I just list him first in this post for the purpose of the post. And even if you want make the match Sonic vs Tidus, we've already seen utter destruction of Tidus in such a match.

On the second tier of the Sonic/FFX theme, you have Tidus vs Shadow. Tidus won. Time for some pie. </Amazing Telephone>

Eh, not exactly. Tidus's victory in that match was a Pyrric one. He may have won, but he won by a slim margin with 70% of the brackets backing him up. And if you were paying attention that day, Shadow won the final twelve or so hours in the poll. He may have only taken 300 votes off of Tidus's lead, but Shadow still won a demographic dominated by Square. If Tidus doesn't have 70% of brackets backing him up, he loses. Advantage Sonic Team.

Tier 3: Knuckles vs Yuna. Um, no comment.

The problem with Sin/Robutt, like many other matches in this contest, is that no one really gives a crap about either one of the characters in the match. It probably comes down to bracket/franchise voting, and as for who has the advantage there, your guess is as good as mine. I have no clue.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 5:39:32 PM | Message Detail
Here's the question though: where does Tails fit in there? As-is, I think Tails is as strong as Yuna 2k3, which makes Sonic's top four characters be at least as strong as FFX's top three characters...

-Sonic's just a lil' stronger than Auron, and has beat Tidus before about 60-40 (which is controversial).
-Tidus has beat Shadow closer than 51-49.
-Tails and Yuna 2k3 are about even, and has lost to Auron about 65-35.
-Knuckles fits somewhere between Tails and Sonic/Shadow (depending on your stance on Tidus/MM), and has beaten both Yuna about 55-45 and Kefka about 57-43 [note: only threw Kefka in there 'cuz he's an FF villain].

...and I would think Dr. Robotnik is closer to Tails than Sin is to Yuna (and I think Dr. Robotnik just might be equal to or stronger than Tails...barely, but he just might). Also, Tails is supposed to be stronger than Kefka by 3%-4%, should memory serve me right. If Sin is much weaker than Kefka and/or if Dr. Robotnik is pretty close to Tails, then Dr. Robotnik should take this.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 5:54:00 PM | Message Detail
Also, Tails is supposed to be stronger than Kefka by 3%-4%, should memory serve me right.

They're separated by .50% in the X-sts, unless something has come up to say otherwise. I'm not sure where the 3 - 4% comes into play.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/30/2005 5:56:55 PM | Message Detail
I'm actually looking for Robotnik to do pretty well in this contest. It could be because I haven't played the more recent Sonic games, but robotnik is just about, or at least in the same iconic league, as ganon and bowser. Not to suggest he'll have that sort of power, but we do have the
mario - bowser - yoshi relationship, perhaps we could have a
sonic-shadow-robotnik-tails one.


hmm, I see that shadow doesn't really fit in too much with this theory, but what's to keep robo from being stronger than tails?

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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 5:58:54 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't expect Robotnik to be stronger than Tails, or even that close. He may be well-known, but I wouldn't imagine many caring for him. Then again, I doubt anyone would care for Sin.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/30/2005 6:04:56 PM | Message Detail
Mm, my "gut" first told me Sin would win, and I've never changed my opinion since then. I've always imagined Sin would be much closer to Yuna than Dr. Robotnik would be to Knuckles. I mean, Knuckles is the greatest! And, who likes Yuna? It's those Final Fantasy "fanboys" that allowed Yuna to compete.

Also, wouldn't it make sense for Sin to be closer to Tidus than Robotnik to Sonic the Hedgehog? Tidus just isn't that great...I mean, Auron's just about on par with Tidus and he's not even the main character. If Tidus were cool like Sonic, he'd defeat Sonic 60/40. Another advantage I'd give to Sin? There's a decent number of people that will vote for anything that's Final Fantasy almost blindly. I'm afraid it won't happen with Sonic characters so much around here.

I'm actually looking for Robotnik to do pretty well in this contest. It could be because I haven't played the more recent Sonic games, but robotnik is just about, or at least in the same iconic league, as ganon and bowser.

I think Bowser got much of his strength from games of recent years. Bowser is just so much higher on the badness scale these days. I could totally wrong, though, and it could cost me big time with Robotnik. As for Ganondorf...well, that could make a argument on Robotnik's I still think GDorf in OoT was more likable than Robotnik ever was on the Genesis...though now GDorf has both SSBM and Zelda: WW to back him, which improved his appearance and character.

I don't know if Eggman's image was improved in the next-gen Sonic games...was it?

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 6:30:47 PM | Message Detail
I know Dr. Robo's become playable in the next-gen games. Not so sure on the bad-assness though.

HM called me out on a mistake about Tails and Kefka, my bad. With that .5% and having their values at where they're at (in the 21.##% range), I can't work the formula right to show what the X-stats predict exactly, but I think it'd end up being just 1.5%-2% difference in a head-to-head match instead of the 3%-4% like I said in my last post (gosh-darn memory). Regardless, Tails still has some cushion over arguably FF's second most popular villain.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 6:38:21 PM | Message Detail
In a head-to-head match-up, Tails would be projected to beat Kefka with 51.15% of the vote.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: RamzaB | Posted: 4/30/2005 6:38:36 PM | Message Detail
I'm going to withdraw from the Guru Contest, I won't have time to worry about the sig afterwards.
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened? (Place Holder for sig bet with YoYoChamp made 3/24/05)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/30/2005 6:41:16 PM | Message Detail
Sonic Team is usually > FFX.

If Robotnik is to Sonic what Wily is to Mega Man, he'll be a weak bastard. Advantage Sin.

Matches between two characters that no one cares about = sux.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 7:41:08 PM | Message Detail
I couldn't remember OR guess right. STUPID, STUPID, STUPID... </Farley>

...if Dr. Robotnik is to Sonic as Dr. Wily is to Mega Man, that's still just under Dr. Wily, and we don't know where he's gonna land yet. Either way though, Robotnik should be closer to Sonic than Wily is to MM anyways; I think Wily's hardly been seen since the NES days (I know he's been in at least one game, but I don't think he's been in any more than three). Meanwhile, Dr. Robotnik's been thrown at us over and over again...in each Sonic game. He was in four of the Genesis's biggest titles alot (obviously Sonic 1, 2 [packed with the Genesis for awhile], 3, and S&K) as well as several spin-offs (a great puzzle game, a so-so pinball game, etc.)...then somebody can explain the Dreamcast-and-up part better than I can if they wanna, but I know he's stayed in them pretty regularly and has become a playable character in the more recent games like SH. Then, to finish it off, it was mentioned that MM:AC might have helped Mega Man a lil' bit...but, should memory serve me right (HM, I'm looking at you, heh), SMC sold more anyways.

I'd hate to pick, but logic would make me think Dr. Robo would win it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 4/30/2005 7:44:35 PM | Message Detail
........Does anyone else think that Andross is going to have the bracket advantage against Sigma?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/30/2005 7:50:00 PM | Message Detail
Andross with the bracket advantage? I highly doubt it.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/30/2005 7:52:25 PM | Message Detail
I suppose you're right about Robotnik's exposure pushing him above Dr. Wily.

I think 40+% will have picked Andross to beat Sigma. Not quite the favorite, though...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:06:41 PM | Message Detail
I actually don't think Dr. Wily is going to end up being very weak at all. Sure, he more or less got his spotlight taken away by Sigma when the Mega Man X series came along, but he is still up on the same level as Bowser or Ganondorf in terms of his importance and overall relevance to the series. And if you ask me, and I realize that doesn't mean a lot, I think Wily would have more "fans" than someone like Robotnik would. It may be just me, but I cannot pinpoint why someone would even remotely care for Robotnik other than his association with Sonic. But at the least, Dr. Wily will be stronger than Protoman. That's an absolute guarantee right there.

With that said, I do expect Sigma to be stronger than him and not by a tiny amount. If there's ever a villain who will die and never stay dead Sigma is the man. As long as there are Mega Man X games being made, Sigma will somehow, someway be there to cause X and Zero trouble. Judging from the recent poll, or not so recent, it showed that the Mega Man X series was a bit more liked over the Classic series. The reason I even bothered to bring this up was that I'm expecting Sigma to give Bowser a nice little fight after dominating Andross. Will he beat him? Of course not. But I really do think that Sigma could prove to be quite the contender in an actual Summer Contest setting.

And yeah, SMC sold ~500,000 more thousand copies than MMAC. In the future, I think it'll be interesting to compare how well MMXC sells in comparison to MMAC.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:21:01 PM | Message Detail
Don't forget that Wily, Robotnik, and Bowser all have major roles in the properties of their respective heroes that aren't directly linked to the main series. Wily's a player in the Battle Network series (right?), and shows up in Captain N, Mega Man: The Animated Series, Mega Man: NT Warrior, and has cameos in the X series. Robotnik's been in SatAM, the other animated Sonic shows, and the comics. Bowser... well, the shows, the games, the Nintendo Power comics, the movie...

It may not be a large factor, and it won't make any of them thrash opponents that they couldn't with only the games, but it can't hurt them much.

Well, except for Dennis Hopper.
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Knights and ninjas play host to the Middle finals at www.rpgdl.com, with Yuffie Kisaragi taking on Izlude Tingel!
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:29:31 PM | Message Detail
For what it is worth, Dr. Wily and Sigma will have the benefit of having Planet Mega Man and Mega Man Network - the two largest Mega Man sites on the Internet - advertising the matches on their front pages.

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“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:39:43 PM | Message Detail
Sigma should get 60% of the brackets on his side, maybe up to 65%...I think.

HM, have those sites ever helped Mega Man, Zero, and/or Protoman yet?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:45:11 PM | Message Detail
Not particularly. Most of the matches that involved any of those three were never in question one way or the other. And by that I mean that the percentages were so separated that it probably wouldn't have made much of a difference.

But I doubt that it would come into play for any of them unless Ocelot/Wily turns out to be a close match, which I think is pretty possible.

---
“If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.”
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:48:16 PM | Message Detail
Wily close to Ocelot? I think you're giving Wily too much credit.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/30/2005 8:49:35 PM | Message Detail
I say it's more likely Dr. Wily will need that site support in his match against Ultros. =P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
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