So you're still going to make an Sp2K5 addition to the site, only a little late.... right?

Yeah, but it might not be until real late, maybe not until after this contest. Though I'm aiming for a couple weeks from now.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

ANything anyone can do to help with that process, cn?
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Tomorrow...

Steve Illumina Speaks Again...

Be ready! :)
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SP2K Dream Final: Dr. Wily vs Kefka
Read Steve Illumina Speaks! Pub Trivian Forever

Anyone want to guess how many zero brackets we're going to have? I'm going for at least five...
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Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

Actually, I'm more interested in whether or not we're going to have a perfect bracket.

The odds are many times better now that there's only half the usual amount of matches.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I'm still abit doubtful on the perfect bracket front just for the sheer fact that there are so many knowns, but I will definately say that it wil lbe as close as last summer. As far as 0 brackets, I'll say 3.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Unknowns, even.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

I'm guessing two 0 brackets and two perfect brackets. Just a guess though.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

i see 6 zero brackets and 0 perfect brackets, unless i get one.

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RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
http://rpgelite.org/join.htm

I'm going to say that there will be, as usual, 0 0 brackets and 0 perfect brackets. There are always surprises.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

Reading through CJayC's Q&A...

"A lot of users wonder about the Summer Contest that is coming up, is there even going to be a summer contest? And what changes, if any, would you make to it so that it is less predictable and more enjoyable to the site's users?

Yes; and you'll know when I know. I've got some ideas, but I'm still throwing them around in my head.

Will there be any more Spring Contests in the future?

Yes, there's one now. It just doesn't make sense to run a second "Best Game Ever" contest so soon.

Would it be feasible to have a game contest this summer, a character contest next summer, and so on in alternating fashion? It would give us users the best of both worlds, and keep the contest where it was from the start: the summer. If time is the major issue, alternating would be the best solution. Plus, it'd extend the year over year volatility to two years, which would make those contests insane to predict.

That's one idea; we'll see what happens with this year's contest."

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I wish he would have said something about gettin' rid of Clinkeroth, even if it was just "That's one idea; we'll see what happens with this year's contest."
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Let's consider each of the following matches to be able to go either way, with half of brackets picking the winner correctly, and assume everyone will get all other matches correct:

Sigma vs. Andross
Ocelot vs. Wily
Vergil vs. Ghaleon
Lavos vs. Mother Brain
Luca Blight vs. Wesker
Albedo vs. M. Bison
Ridley vs. Diablo
Dr. Robotnik vs. Sin
Kuja vs. Master Hand
Kefka vs. Ridley/Diablo
Dr. Robotnik/Sin vs. Kuja/Master Hand

Yes, I know many of these you would say are quite obvious, but let's assume anyways. Now, if 50% of brackets picked the winner, and all the matches are independent, the probability of any one bracket being perfect is 1/2^11 = 1/2048, so the expected number of perfects is about 40000 * 1/2048 = 20, assuming about 40000 brackets enter again. The standard deviation in the number of expected brackets is sqrt(40000 * 1/2048 * (1 - 1/2048)) = 4.4. Using the normal approximation of the binomial distribution (which is valid since 40000 * 1/2048 > 10 and 40000 * (1 - 1/2048) > 10), the probability of fewer than 5 perfects is normalcdf((5 - 20) / 4.4) = normalcdf(-3.29) = 1.2 * 10^-7. This is astronomically small!

Now of course, not all the assumptions I made are completely valid, and if any significant upset happens, the expected number of perfects drops dramatically, causing an obvious increase to the probability of few or no perfects. If you assume though that some of the above matches are "obvious", then the probability of a perfect only increases.

The expected number of zero brackets is harder to measure because the number of attempted zero brackets is harder to measure, but the probability of a given attempted zero bracket being a zero bracket is greater than the probability of a given attempted perfect bracket being a perfect bracket because it has to (in)correctly predict only the first round.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Of course, one argument is that the average bracket maker isn't as knowledgeable as the average board 8-er and might make some really stupid picks, but we can reduce the number of brackets by around half or so, which still gives a good number of expected perfects.

Anyways, I'm predicting around 15 +/- 5 perfects, and around 8 +/- 4 zeroes.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

I think now's as good of a time as any to say I truly hope whoever wins this wins with a favorites-bracket; with all of this talk about how this is the most likely to have a perfect/zero-bracket yet and how the winner's soooooo certain, I really really hope something incredibly wild happens to the point of where somebody's favorites-bracket wins it.

Besides, it's just a one-month 'un, heh; summer-time is when it's for real. =)
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

I believe there will be zero perfects and zero zero brackets.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

HM doesn't think his own bracket will be perfect? Wow.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

Nope. I don't have enough confidence in quite a few matches to say that my bracket will be perfect.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

Well, I've decided that since this is the last night to change picks, I'm wondering how my upsets are faring. I basically just filled out the bracket from the get go, and have left it. I'll ask for advice/help, but for right now, an interesting question. Now that we've had a few contests together, what usually proves better? Sticking to your gut instincts (ie first run through) or changing with the crowd?

I'm expecting a blend of the two, but I was also wondering how good the bop would be here. I mean, we've never seen so many of these characters, so I'm thinking that common consenus based on essentially assumptions only is a bit shaky to rely on. OK, so "essentially assumptions" isn't exactly fair, but, it is true to an extent. So, how many picks has everyone here changed/left the same?
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

I haven't touched my bracket since I first filled it out. I picked three upsets then, and I'm sticking with them.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

oh another interesting question then, too, is when did you fill out your bracket?


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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

As soon as the option was available to me, and I don't think my picks changed in the period between seeing the bracket for the first time and filling it out.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I filled my bracket out the night it opened, and I changed it the next day (I had an accident in it; I didn't mean to have Master Hand getting to Ganondorf, heh...I think I made one other legit change too, but I don't remember it now). Other than that though, I haven't touched it.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

I remember it now; I fixed my tie-breaker by afew thousand while I had to edit it anyways.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

hmm, maybe I'll just leave it then, while simultaneously accepting my sig space will become taken for a few weeks.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

What bet you have goin' on, or are you just talking about the Guru Contest?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

No TRE until Sunday? OMGOMG, someone else will get to win the very first First Vote! I think I'll make it me...

Speaking of which, I better get the First Vote topic and Guru Topic/Spreadsheet ready for this Sunday...

Oh, and sorry if this has been asked already, but will your Update Tracker program be running for the upcoming matches, creative?

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the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

I filled out my bracket the night the pairings were posted, as well...I haven't felt any need to change my picks since then. Or, at least, I haven't been convinced otherwise for any of my picks. It's not been that way for past contests, though...for instance, Sora vs. HK-47.

How many brackets do you think were made in the first hour and not changed since then? A few hundred, perhaps? I hope most others made so soon are messed up so I can see myself in the Top 50 early. =p

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

yeah, I mean the guru contest.

and I'm glad I checked my bracket, a tie breaker of 58 wouldn't exactly have been the best to rely on.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

Honestly, I don't think I'll see the Top Fifty this contest if my MH-over-Kuja upset doesn't come through, and I may miss a match or two before that one even comes up.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

lol, funny that tre is leaving and then all of a sudden we have a flurry of cjayc activity.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

Dang, Contest start pushed back a day. Looks like TRE gets his first First Vote win after all.

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the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

Hmm. Looks like the contest isn't going to start until Monday.

---
“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

Pushed back two days, actually.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

BOOOOO!!!!! why the late start? that seems exceedingly lame. >_<

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

Actually it looks like it is starting Tuesday. Just the brackets are due Monday.
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"What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease." -- The Art of War

Wow, this being delayed really REALLY sucks. =/

Here I was, just thinkin' 'bout whether I was gonna stay up for it or not tomorrow night.....
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

How amusing. Wait like practically the eve of the start of the Contest just to say it will start on Tuesday instead..

Hmm...not that I really care. I mean, more BOP brackets and Gurus, right? :-)

But..hey..guess what?







For all it's worth to say, this actually means that Ridley vs Diablo will be on a Saturday, instead of a Thursday, if Spring Contest 2k5 started next Tuesday.

dot..dot..dot.
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (144 Signs!)

For all it's worth to say, this actually means that Ridley vs Diablo will be on a Saturday, instead of a Thursday, if Spring Contest 2k5 started next Tuesday.

Somebody'll change their bracket over this piece of info. That IS scary though.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

There will be several zero brackets undoubtabley.
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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 0/0 Next Pick: Bowser

lol, funny that tre is leaving and then all of a sudden we have a flurry of cjayc activity.

What can I say? I have poor luck. =D

Dang, Contest start pushed back a day. Looks like TRE gets his first First Vote win after all.

What can I say? I have good luck. =D

For all it's worth to say, this actually means that Ridley vs Diablo will be on a Saturday, instead of a Thursday, if Spring Contest 2k5 started next Tuesday.

Looks like the Friday the 13th factor won't be coming thorugh for UltimaterializerX.

UltimaterializerX, you won't have to help me archive anything afterall. It turned out that I will have internet access where I am.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Too afraid to say where you're going, buddy? <3

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

Darn, I'm not that happy with the pushing back of the contest by two days. Oh well, nothing we can do about it.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Too afraid to say where you're going, buddy? <3

Nah, I just don't expect anybody else to be that interested in the fact that I'm one of the 14 people to reach the final round in Nintendo's Pokemon Emerald contest.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

The Supercomputer somehow forced CJayC to push it back.

<.<
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri

ANything anyone can do to help with that process, cn?

Thanks for the offer Chichiri, but I don't think there's anything needed.


Aprosenf, I agree with you that given conservative assumptions, the odds of a perfect bracket are very high. People need to understand that there is a huge difference between 32 characters and 64 characters. The main mitigating factor is that most of the characters here are unknowns; the main issue then becomes, in all the matches where there is an "obvious" favorite, what are the odds that the consensus is totally wrong? A couple true surprises will lower the odds of a perfect bracket greatly.

But it still seems quite likely that there will be a fair number of perfect brackets.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

23 today, woot. Maybe I'll actually get round to finishing Chrono Trigger.

Putting the contest back a day? There's been what, how many weeks already? Still, it means Ridley will now be on a Friday at least. Er... a Friday when I'm off playing poker. Will have to get the vote in quite early, and miss the rest of the match. No!!!
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Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

Ridley/Diablo on a Saturday? Great.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja

Ah, miscounted. Yeah, it'll be a Saturday, and I doubt I'll have access to a computer then.
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Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

Diablo shall pull through! =)

Nah, I just don't expect anybody else to be that interested in the fact that I'm one of the 14 people to reach the final round in Nintendo's Pokemon Emerald contest.

If Kuge's constant poker topics can still generate interest, I fail to see why people wouldn't care how you do in a Pokémon tournament. Pokémon isn't really hated on this board, and I'll be rooting for you if it matters.

By the way, do you need help archiving CJayC's topic? >_>

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal