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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 111
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/26/2005 7:39:02 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/26/2005 7:50:51 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I just mean cliche as is user-made contests; it's EVERYWHERE, including one I made with Clinkeroth back around...October, maybe November? Looky here, as I pull it from the vault:

1-Solid Snake VS 16-Earthworm Jim
8-Fox McCloud VS 9-Tails
5-Tidus VS 12-Ness
4-Zero VS 13-Vyse
6-Magus VS 11-Revolver Ocelot
3-Master Chief VS 14-Kerrigan
7-Bowser VS 10-Vivi
2-Sonic VS 15-Conker

It's been done, alot, and I've done it already too. I figure I'd try something else that could prove to be interesting too with Solid, though it's not as high of a chance for the upset.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/26/2005 7:52:31 PM | Message Detail
...just so my post is in context, Haste2 said something along the lines of how Solid VS Ganon/Magus/Zero can't be too cliche when they haven't been done yet.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/26/2005 7:55:27 PM | Message Detail
What might be of interest is that Xbox has now broken the 18% barrier while Gamecube lingers around the 13.5% mark.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/26/2005 7:56:18 PM | Message Detail
...just so my post is in context, Haste2 said something along the lines of how Solid VS Ganon/Magus/Zero can't be too cliche when they haven't been done yet.

I posted it in the topic devoted to your bracket instead. :P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/26/2005 7:59:04 PM | Message Detail
I noticed already; I figure I'll leave it up in case it sparks some kind of discussion, since we're running dry with it like almost always right before the contest.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/26/2005 8:23:41 PM | Message Detail
not sure it someone's said it, but it's probably known anyway, but, with the gamecube, there's obviously a split in the nintendo bloc with both gba and ds being grouped together. Sure that makes the ps2 look more impressive as well, but that's ok I suppose.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/26/2005 8:42:44 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, this probably isn't the most relevant thing to say in this topic, but...

Holy crap at all that new Zelda info. It looks awesome. Hell, beyond awesome. If this doesn't end up being the best game ever made, I'm going to be disappointed. Yeah...it looks just that good. o_o
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/26/2005 8:42:46 PM | Message Detail
Eh, just because one votes for the GBA/DS does not mean they would have voted for the GCN had that option not been there.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/26/2005 8:55:39 PM | Message Detail
But it's the most likely second place system for those voters.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/26/2005 9:00:37 PM | Message Detail
I'm one of the 3.5% that still primarily plays "older systems". Yay.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Valiant Frog | Posted: 4/26/2005 9:06:17 PM | Message Detail
But it's the most likely second place system for those voters.

I don't see why someone who voted for the GBA/DS would be "likely" to vote for the GCN based purely on the fact that they play with a Nintendo system more. Nintendo's handhelds aren't exclusive to Nintendo fans. It far exceeds their console fanbase.

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"Cyrus, this be our finest battle..." - Frog (Chrono Trigger)
SpC2k4 : Winner - Chrono Trigger
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 4/26/2005 9:10:24 PM | Message Detail
Going by how poorly older systems are doing, people seem to mainly play new games, and the GCN hasn't had any new games recently, it makes plenty of sense that it's in last. Since Star Fox Assault, the GCN's last "big" game, God of War, Jade Empire, Devil May Cry 3, and several other games have come out for PS2 and Xbox.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/26/2005 9:21:00 PM | Message Detail
Let's assume that GBA/DS is taking out a good portion of the GC's votes:

Game Boy Advance/DS - 7.64% - 4398
GameCube - 13.44% - 7730
Xbox - 18.07% - 10398

We could give GC 4.5% (noticably over half; I'm being generous to prove a point) of the GBA/DS's 7.64%, and that woud still give the Xbox the advantage here by 0.13% with there still being a 3.14% portion left for the GBA/DS vote that would likely be spread pretty evenly with the rest of the systems not named GC (which'd only help Xbox). I think it's fair to accept that Xbox has beat the GC this time.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/26/2005 9:23:13 PM | Message Detail
It makes sense due to games released recently that the GameCube would be behind the Xbox. There wasn't anything released for April while Xbox got Jade Empire and still has the Halo 2 machine getting the Xbox activity.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: therealmnm | Posted: 4/26/2005 10:10:14 PM | Message Detail
Plus you're comparing a system that thrives online with a system that barely touches online gaming. So even if they have equal ownership, the X-Box would probably be getting more play due to X-Box live.... The only top-selling Gamecube game that I can think of that would be getting similar kind of play is SSBM.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/27/2005 5:10:46 AM | Message Detail
The new Zelda definitely looks like it could be the best game ever. It's such a damned shame that it's being released so late in the GCN's lifespan.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/27/2005 5:12:35 AM | Message Detail
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/26/2005 3:18:32 PM | Message Detail
Ansem. I expect him to be fairly close to what Sora looked like in 2k3, and I don't expect Wily to be any better off than Protoman.


Glad I'm not the only one who thinks that. I project Wily to be at the level of Protoman at best, and for Robutt to be even weaker than Wily; of course, Robutt's problem is that he is facing off against a weak bastard in his own right in Sin.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/27/2005 5:12:56 AM | Message Detail
Robutt's upside, rather.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: H__RR____H | Posted: 4/27/2005 6:38:46 AM | Message Detail
I think Ansem and Wily could have a war, though I think Dr. Wily would be a lil' stronger than Protoman. Don't be so quick to doubt Dr. Robotnik though...he may or may not come close to Tails in strength, but he has every possibility to be close/equal/higher than him until he shows otherwise, and Tails is supposed to be just above Kefka if ya follow the X-stats (though I'd go against them in a Tails/Kefka match, personally).
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 4/27/2005 8:54:21 AM | Message Detail
Sorry to steer off the subject and I am sure you guys have already talked about this but I must have missed all those times.. =) .. Um, if Samus vs. Mario happens during the summer contest.. Would Samus surely take the win or Mario wins it with SFF..???

I know Samus is stronger when facing other opponents but if she were to face up with Mario.. Would Mario win the SFF and win the match??

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~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: jonthomson | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:04:58 AM | Message Detail
Mario would win that.

As an aside, I've now got Crono back and am just messing around before taking on Lavos with a view to not getting a kicking :-)
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Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:17:13 AM | Message Detail
I've now got Crono back and am just messing around before taking on Lavos with a view to not getting a kicking

That made absolutely no sense.

Anyway, I'm almost done my archive of the Summer 2004 results into my all-time results. I should have it done before tonight.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:47:30 AM | Message Detail
I think he meant he's thinkin' he won't get whooped. Not entirely sure...

...and I'd take Samus, but if anybody outside of Clinkeroth can beat Samus, it's Mario in my book.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:52:04 AM | Message Detail
He's saying that he's playing Chrono Trigger, just got back Crono, and is about to fight Lavos.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!
From: jonthomson | Posted: 4/27/2005 10:10:35 AM | Message Detail
He's saying that he's playing Chrono Trigger, just got back Crono, and is about to fight Lavos.

Is the right answer. I don't see how my post wasn't clear at all, especially seeing how most of my posts of recent have been CT-related... ah wells.
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Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 4/27/2005 10:28:19 AM | Message Detail
I would have a hard time picking between Mario and Samus.. It'll be decided on the last day and the last hour before the bracket is closed.. =)

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~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: therealmnm | Posted: 4/27/2005 11:29:18 AM | Message Detail
I don't know why people are thinking that Mario can all of a sudden get some rSFF on Samus. Just because Samus is Nintendo doesn't mean that Nintendo fans have to like him better than Samus. Samus has become far too popular in recent years in my opinion. For Mario to be able to SFF Samus, a number of voters would have to like Samus STRICTLY because she is Nintendo. It seems to me that Samus fans are genuine.

I mean, it makes SENSE that Samus and Link would be more popular than Mario. The ONLY defense that Mario has is that he is Mr. Nintendo. However, Nintendo is not as big a player in the VG industry as it has been in the past... therefore Mario isn't as big as he has been. Not to say that Mario is getting significantly weaker, but he hasn't even been DISPLAYED as being Mr. Nintendo in the past couple of years. Samus is going in the opposite direction. Another thing to think about. Even IF hardcore Nintendo fans would vote Mario, who do you think would be more popular among the non-hardcore Nintendo fanbase? It may be close, but I don't think that Mario can muster enough to actually SFF Samus.

Hmmmm, I made the argument without even USING any contest numbers.... o_O
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/27/2005 12:58:22 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Mario can. I also don't think that Crono is going to gain twice as much in one year as he has in the last two. The only character who has had the math on his side is Mega Man, and that was years ago. Frankly, I can't see Samus losing without C/L/S around.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 4/27/2005 1:02:03 PM | Message Detail
Since I disagree with your post, all I'm gonna say is tasteful change in sig there.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/27/2005 1:11:10 PM | Message Detail
If Samus can jump mysteriously, there's no reason why she can't fall mysteriously. I don't think her value from this year is set in stone by any means, and that's why I'd be tempted to pick the others over her.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 4/27/2005 1:12:59 PM | Message Detail
Samus jumped mysteriously????
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/27/2005 1:13:08 PM | Message Detail
I don't think she did jump mysteriously, and assuming she did I can't imagine her falling with new games this year. Looking at the stats we're generally led to beleive that DMC2 helped Dante, so I just can't see good games (even if they are a tad underplayed according to some) would hurt Samus or allow her to drop.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/27/2005 1:13:40 PM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/27/2005 4:11:10 PM | #231
If Samus can jump mysteriously, there's no reason why she can't fall mysteriously. I don't think her value from this year is set in stone by any means, and that's why I'd be tempted to pick the others over her.

She actually had her worst outing against Cloud last year, if you ask me. With 5 matches to judge from, that was no fluke.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/27/2005 1:18:29 PM | Message Detail
I didn't say it was a fluke. I'm saying that there was no reason for her to go up, after she didn't budge at all in 2k3. As far as "games automatically mean increases," I'm pretty sure Sonic got a game in between 2k2 and 2k3 and he still went down. Same deal with Shadow from 2k3 to 2k4 (presumably), Jill decreasing despite the REmake, and especially Sam Fisher. Will Echoes have an effect? Hard to say. Prime didn't, after all, and Echoes hasn't been as well received as Prime, despite being a better game.
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Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: creativename | Posted: 4/27/2005 2:08:06 PM | Message Detail
I really don't understand how how someone can expect Mario to beat Samus. Samus winning certainly isn't guaranteed, but she would have to be the favorite; a light favorite if nothing else. The whole "Nintendo" thing makes no sense given that Link already crushed Mario, as therealmnm said.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/27/2005 2:12:35 PM | Message Detail
Link is a whole different ballgame from Samus. And look at how Mario's games performed in comparison to Samus's. Samus as a character might be stronger overall, but Mario's games seem to have more favor than hers. It could make a difference head-to-head.

And don't bring up Mario 3 vs. LoZ because that's a completely different thing. Mario 3 has aged better than any game in history.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/27/2005 2:26:33 PM | Message Detail
I think Slow is right, that match was a fluke. Let's look at what we had in 2k3 with her here, though. I have some interesting things to say of it.

Jill - Both dropped proportionately in 2k3. If you don't think Tidus/Shadow is a coincidence then this has to say something to you. Like Ratchet She was too close to Samus to say.

Ratchet - Same division in 2k4, as well. Perhaps that's saying something...

Squall - Who knows, he got a potential SFF match this last year.

Crash - Went up in 2k4, even though he may have suffered under the proposed "solid **** factor"

KOS-MOS - Nearly unchanged, but up none-the-less.

Luigi - Down less than KOS went up and he had potential double SSF from the Link-Yoshi-Luigi chain in 2k4.

So then. From what we've seen to conclude that Samus wasn't SFF'd in 2k3 you have to look at two characters who were sff'd in 2k4, two who went up and two who went down but remained close to Samus. If, like Slow, you believe that Cloud vs. Samus was an irregularity you must automatically exclude every character that wasn't SFFed except Crash who went up under some fairly bad circumstances.

Assumption - Cloud knocked Samus down by enough to drop Ratchet, Jill and KOS-MOS down a noticable amount. KOS-MOS, therefore, actually improved more than the XSt says while Ratchet and Jill were likely unchanged resulting in them losing 2-3%. This would put KOS-MOS close to Yoshi. It'd also put Sonic over Mario and Ryu over Zero. Sure, a lot of it is hard to swallow... It'd still put Sam at a noticable decline and Lara at a huge loss. Obviously there are reasons why it comes off as looking wrong... there are also reasons why it looks right.

Conclussion: Who the **** knows! All I know is that one of the people who is quickest to say that evidence shows that Samus wasn't SFF'd in 2k3 is one of the people who without realizing believes all the evidence contrary to that possibilty is essentially voided.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: creativename | Posted: 4/27/2005 3:28:10 PM | Message Detail
Link is a whole different ballgame from Samus.

The supposed logic is the same. It doesn't make much sense to believe that Mario would win just because Samus is Nintendo too. If that mattered he would've benefitted some against Link too--Link is more identified with Nintendo than Samus anyway. Samus is a very different character than the Nintendo mascots.

And look at how Mario's games performed in comparison to Samus's. Samus as a character might be stronger overall, but Mario's games seem to have more favor than hers. It could make a difference head-to-head.

This doesn't really matter.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/27/2005 7:48:26 PM | Message Detail
Mario 3 has aged better than any game in history.

I'd argue Starcraft. I don't see anyone making six figures per year to play Mario 3.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/27/2005 7:54:18 PM | Message Detail
Let's see how long that lasts before we say StarCraft has aged better than Mario 3.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 4/27/2005 7:55:44 PM | Message Detail
I have decided to get into StarCraft for reasons unrelated to what Ulti just said.

StarCraft isn't really old enough to have aged yet... I dunno, 8 years or so just doesn't seem too much...
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Even at my age I'm shakin' what my momma gave me.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/27/2005 8:01:10 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of Starcraft, I've been thinkin' about tryin' to play it again...but I'm gonna wait until after my finals next week before I do, heh.

By the way, this is off-topic, but I've been playing Star Fox: Assault...I'm three or four levels into it, and I'm not greatly impressed. I'm loving the old-school Arwing spots so far, but the tank shoots too slow for me to like it much and goin' Rambo reminds me an awful lot of Star Wars: Battlefield. I'm having fun with it, but it's lacking thus far; I'll have to give it more time.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 4/27/2005 8:03:24 PM | Message Detail
I loved SW:B. :(

It played like Battlefield, except without the boredom of WWII.
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Even at my age I'm shakin' what my momma gave me.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/27/2005 8:05:58 PM | Message Detail
I had fun with SW:B too...as long as I didn't play it for more than 30-45 minutes at a time. It got repetitive on me, and I hope that doesn't happen with SF:Ass too.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: cyko | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:13:42 PM | Message Detail
i can't believe anyone would think it's not possible for a character's popularity to fluctuate. case in point - look at Kirby vs. Jill Valentine. way back in 2002, Jill beat Kirby with 53.3% of the vote. in 2003, Kirby actually performed a little better than Jill. then, in 2004's Contest, Kirby was significantly higher than Jill. and even if you have zero faith in the x-stats, how many of you would honestly take Jill over Kirby in a rematch this year?

characters can and do fluctuate in popularity, especially with notable things like new games and constant lack of exposure. and i see no reason why even the more powerful characters like Samus and Mario should be immune to changes in popularity.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:27:21 PM | Message Detail
If this were still 2k3 I'd take Jill regardless of what the stats say. If you haven't noticed, there seems to be some weird thing with Samus getting her ass beat worse than it should against the big boys. Of course, it's two years later and I think that she has legitimately lost osme strength since then.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Dranze | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:30:17 PM | Message Detail
Or the big boys gained. Either way.
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Shut up, make me a sandwich. That is all.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:49:25 PM | Message Detail
They gained but only showed it against Samus? Hardly likely.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: cyko | Posted: 4/27/2005 9:59:57 PM | Message Detail
eh, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for Samus to drop after having more great games released, but anything is within the realm of possibility. more than anything, though, the characters' fluctuating popularity is most likely a result of the constantly changing voter pool than anything the character did or appeared in.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
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