Oops, I half-read what the conversation was about. Scratch that last comment then. I did just what you said DON'T tell you, heh...

Anyways... My thinking is that WHO is voting plays far more of a role than a character's "strength" changing. Granted, in situations like Samus' increase in popularity due to her having a number of games and Nintendo spotlight on her, and someone like Master Chief increasing due to more X-Box ownership and Halo 2. I'm just wary of so called "factors" that people try to come up with...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

For example, I guarantee you when the new Zelda comes out that you will see an increase in a NUMBER of Nintendo characters if there is a contest then. It all depends on who is visiting Gamefaqs more often at that point in time.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

We all know Mega Man's going to give Sephiroth another run for his money when Mega Man X and Bass Battle Network 78 Zero version comes out.
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BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

As long as there's a cap, there won't be more Nintendo characters...maybe higher seeds though.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

So Ceej loses his three biggest draws, and on top of that, the contest is nearly as predictable as it would be with them? Sounds like alose-lose situation to me.

No, not at all. There will still be plenty of votes brought in from all of the other "elite" members. It isn't as if those three are the only characters that bring in the votes. Now, they bring them in moreso than any other characters, but it isn't as though you're taking away a chunk of the voters by not having them present. Also, I fail to see how it would possibly be "just as predictable." You can easily arrange a great bracket with or without the inclusion of Cloud/Link/Sephiroth. Now, you can also create a situation where the final four and finals are both undetermined as well as the rest of the bracket. You don't lose anything when removing them; you actually gain in doing so.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

Nooooooo, I meant that a lot of Nintendo characters OUTSIDE of just Link, Ganondorf, and Zelda would have an increase in strength due to an influx of Nintendo fans accessing the site more often. Just adding to my thoughts of voter base having more of an impact then a character simply becoming stronger.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

but we're all acting as if the characters in the summer contest, or at least the more established ones, can never change.

This isn't an issue of saying a character can or cannot change. You're going to see change every year from almost everybody in some fashion. But you're bringing up results from 2002 when clearly we have more recent data that suggest that Samus shouldn't get the same percentage against Sephiroth, much less have a chance to actually upset him. The prediction is a 55 - 45 matchup going by the X-sts and with little reason on Samus's behalf to go up again and Sephiroth looking to potentially see a rise himself, due to a potential SFF with Cloud last year or due to Advent Children. Now, characters don't need a brand-new, well-received title in order to get a boost in popularity. Look at Crono - I love the guy so I'll use him in a lot of examples - he gets a boost every year for no particular reason - although if I had to put my finger on a reason, it'd be more people playing Chrono Trigger through emulation. In this case, for Samus to get a boost, it goes well beyond just year-to-year variation. It requires something to have been fairly huge and she hasn't had anything remotely big enough to give her that swing in popularity, especially after the, what, 4% boost she got last year?


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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

although if I had to put my finger on a reason, it'd be more people playing Chrono Trigger through emulation

I'm playing Chrono Trigger through emulation.
---
Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

HM makes me wanna ask this: does anybody think Kefka gained against Knuckles the same way Crono does every year?
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Knuckles choked on a queen ant.
---
BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

Knuckles also happened to do better against Snake than he's ever done.
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]

More of Snake crapping up than Knuckles doing good.
---
BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 5:10:59 PM | Message Detail | #029
HM makes me wanna ask this: does anybody think Kefka gained against Knuckles the same way Crono does every year?

Yes.

And boy, did I throw around my bracket. I was envisioning my risky picks, trying to actually visualise the match poll, and almost changed them all.

I'm back to a safe, secure, cowardly bracket. The frickin' same I always end up with. Whee.
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Justice shall prevail!

God I hope CJayC doesn't put Knuckles in the same division as Snake this year.
---
"From now on, anyone that makes fun of me, I'll kill them, just like that!"
"Eddie, have you gone nuts?"

That is probably the best Heroic alt I've ever seen.

...How much do you want for it?
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And no, I don't think Kefka gained. He did pretty much what he was expected to do against Knuckles had there been SFF against Crono.

If you want to account for the difference between Kefka and Pac-Man in 2004, look at Luigi, not Knux.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20627823

My bracket I mentioned earlier. Check it out if ya like.


If Kefka does happen to gain like Crono does, and with the upcoming spotlight he's gonna get as a one-seed...Kefka could make another jump in the Summer Contest (or hell, he just might not wait 'til then).
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

I haven't touched my bracket since the first day, because I'd probably do the same thing as Shake and change all my upsets.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!

I changed mine the second day; I touched up my tie-breaker and saw that I had Master Hand gettin' to Ganondorf. I stand by that being an accident...though I still have him winning one match.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

So you didn't completely correct your mistake then.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

It's not a mistake as far as I'm concerned.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

I have touched it up a few times. My final touchup was actually today. I changed Wesker>Diablo to Diablo>Wesker.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

I haven't touched my bracket since the first day either.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

Unless I see something I really feel a need to change, I'm leaving mine alone. If I change anything, it'll either be changing it to Kefka winning his division or *gasp* Kuja beating MH. As is, I don't feel the need to change.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

I have touched it up a few times. My final touchup was actually today. I changed Wesker>Diablo to Diablo>Wesker.

One less bracket... wait, it was never a bracket that would have been ahead of mine before that change.
---
Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

And no, I don't think Kefka gained. He did pretty much what he was expected to do against Knuckles had there been SFF against Crono.

This could be due to random variation, but...

Kefka '03 measured from '02 Pac-Man: 20.70%
Kefka '04 measured from '03 ('04) Mega Man: 22.75%

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

One less bracket... wait, it was never a bracket that would have been ahead of mine before that change.

I see someone took their "witty" pills this morning.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

It'd make sense to do it like this...

May: Villains Contest: 32 contestants
June: Heroes Contest: 32 Contestants
July: Best of H&V Contest: 32 Contestants

Or something...
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I was going to say, "I can't think sig, so I put this in instead."
Then I realised, THAT IT'S ****ING LAME.

I made a change about a week ago after I came to a revelation. I'm not telling what that revelation is, but I had to take a second look at previous results and use some common sense. Maybe after brackets lock I'll tell more....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Did you realize that Ganondorf is guaranteed to win it all?

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

As long as Ansem is around, Ganon won't be winning ****. =)
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

well, as long as we are talking about brackets not being interesting if Clinkeroth stays in it, here is the bracket i came up with a while ago:

Mega Division

1 Megaman
16 Pac-Man

8 Geno
9 Gordon Freeman

4 Leon Kennedy
13 Revolver Ocelot

5 Princess Peach
12 Chun Li

6 Frog
11 Zelda

3 Sonic
14 Mai Shiranui

7 Kefka
10 Viewtiful Joe

2 Mario
15 Ghaleon

Zebes Division

1 Samus Aran
16 CATS

8 Lloyd (Tales of Symphonia)
9 Sigma

4 Carl "CJ" Johnson
13 Ganondorf

5 Bowser
12 Shadow the Hedgehog

6 Master Cheif
11 Liquid Snake

3 Kerrigan
14 Shadow

7 Sub-Zero
10 Donkey Kong

2 Crono
15 Bomberman

Clinkeroth Division

1 Link
16 Conker

8 Protoman
9 Kain Highwind

4 Alucard
13 Vivi

5 Dante
12 Sora

6 Kratos (God of War)
11 Kirby

3 Sephiroth
14 Ness

7 Tails
10 KOS-MOS

2 Cloud
15 King of All Cosmos

Solid Division

1 Solid Snake
16 Lara Croft

8 Yoshi
9 Knuckles

4 Auron
13 Ryu Hayabusa

5 Ryu (SFII)
12 Tidus

6 Vincent
11 Squall

3 Magus
14 Luigi

7 Morrigan
10 Strider

2 Zero
15 Crash Bandicoot

i would elaborate on my reasoning behind each potential match-up, but i don't have time at the moment. however, there are several new characters and we would be guaranteed to have characters make the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8 that have never made it that far before. plus, i really love that fourth division. i think this is an example of a bracket that is still interesting and tough to predict, even with Clinkeroth still in it.

what do you guys think?

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

What is up with the massive underseeding of Squall and Tidus?

For goodness sake, SOMEBODY give Tidus at least a chance of getting out of the 2nd round.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!

for one thing, i didn't give a crap about fair seedings. i wanted interesting matches, and for that some characters will have to be underseeded and some will have to be overseeded. if each character was seeded right where they should be then it would be an EXTREMELY boring and predictable contest.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

http://img259.echo.cx/my.php?image=bracket7lo.jpg

There you have it. My most recent update to my bracket.

Heil Dweebenheimer!!! For I am MasterMage119!!!

for one thing, i didn't give a crap about fair seedings. i wanted interesting matches, and for that some characters will have to be underseeded and some will have to be overseeded. if each character was seeded right where they should be then it would be an EXTREMELY boring and predictable contest.

Well, then how about some REALISTIC seeding? Squall won't be that low.
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Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

>_>

did you not read my last post? to make good matchups, you just can't worry that much about the seedings. some characters would get overseeded and some would get underseeded. if you're that hung up on seedings, then just pretend the numbers aren't there.

Squall is where he is because i believe Vincent vs Squall would make a great matchup that either character could win. plus with Vincent's spot in the Division, his strength is unpredictable enough where he could lose in the first match or win the entire division.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

The only change I've made to my bracket since the first day is switching Wesker over Kefka to Kefka over Wesker. Don't know what I was thinking when I put that one down...

No, not at all. There will still be plenty of votes brought in from all of the other "elite" members. It isn't as if those three are the only characters that bring in the votes.

But they are the biggest vote magnets in the contest by far. If we lose them, we lose a ton of votes, and therefore we lose a ton of potential hits to the site, which is what these contests are really all about anyway.

Now, they bring them in moreso than any other characters, but it isn't as though you're taking away a chunk of the voters by not having them present.

Yes you are. Read above argument.

Also, I fail to see how it would possibly be "just as predictable." You can easily arrange a great bracket with or without the inclusion of Cloud/Link/Sephiroth. Now, you can also create a situation where the final four and finals are both undetermined as well as the rest of the bracket. You don't lose anything when removing them; you actually gain in doing so.

I didn't say "just as predictable", I said "nearly as predictable". So we have four potential winners instead of two? Holy freakin' gangsta Jesus on a pogo stick, I think I'm gonna need a cold shower. Besides, you can still have tons of unpredictable matches even with Clinkeroth in the bracket.

Wait...hold on...you're saying that the final four would be undetermined without Clinkeroth? Are you joking? It would quite obviously be Mario, Mega Man, Samus, and Crono, assuming none of them are placed in the same half-division, but it'd still be blatantly obvious who the final member of the F4 would be (Snake, Sonic, or Magus.)

Besides, what are we really accomplishing by removing Clinkeroth? Putting a new name in the "Champion" box? Is it really going to make the contest exponentially better if we see Samus or Mario instead of Cloud or Link?

To sum everything up: removing Clinkeroth will not have a significant effect on the bracket's predictability.

Hell, let's say it again: removing Clinkeroth will not have a significant effect on the bracket's predictability.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

But they are the biggest vote magnets in the contest by far. If we lose them, we lose a ton of votes, and therefore we lose a ton of potential hits to the site, which is what these contests are really all about anyway.

I'm not saying that they don't bring in the voters by large. But by removing them you are not going to receive low votes or anything close to it. Sure, you aren't going to have, what, 120,000 - 150,000 voters in those matchups, but we haven't something that large since 2003 as it is. It isn't as though we'll be hitting 60,000 votes per match with them missing.

I didn't say "just as predictable", I said "nearly as predictable". So we have four potential winners instead of two? Holy freakin' gangsta Jesus on a pogo stick, I think I'm gonna need a cold shower. Besides, you can still have tons of unpredictable matches even with Clinkeroth in the bracket.

And guess what? You can have just as many unpredictable matches, if not more, without Cloud/Sephiroth/Link. That's on top of having four potential winners and one hell of a final four/final as opposed to a good final, or in the case of putting Cloud/Link in the same division you get a good bracket and a boring final four/final. By removing them you open up those last matches being great and more unpredictable.

Wait...hold on...you're saying that the final four would be undetermined without Clinkeroth? Are you joking? It would quite obviously be Mario, Mega Man, Samus, and Crono, assuming none of them are placed in the same half-division, but it'd still be blatantly obvious who the final member of the F4 would be (Snake, Sonic, or Magus.)

Actually, no, I did not say that the final four would be undetermined. The winners of the final four would be undetermined. Samus, Crono, Mario, and Mega Man would all be the likely candidates for the final four. Each of them is capable of advancing the finals and depending on who makes it there, is capable of winning the contest. Now, you can create the same unpredictable bracket you could with Cloud/Link/Sephiroth in, except now you have a great ending to the contest.

Besides, what are we really accomplishing by removing Clinkeroth? Putting a new name in the "Champion" box? Is it really going to make the contest exponentially better if we see Samus or Mario instead of Cloud or Link?

Or Crono. Or Mega Man. I fail to see what could possibly be "bad" by removing them except for losing those massive votes that their particular matches feature. And quite honestly, consider we aren't going to hit extreme lows with it, I don't have a problem with losing the biggest vote magnets, especially after seeing the great bracket that Harrich created. It is far better than anything bracket I've seen with Link/Cloud/Sephiroth in it.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

"Besides, what are we really accomplishing by removing Clinkeroth?"

(Hopefully) Creating additional interesting matches. It's a hope, as there will only be a couple more matches that wouldn't be as predictable, and nothing more... but people have always gone to drastic lengths fueled only by hope.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

especially after seeing the great bracket that Harrich created. It is far better than anything bracket I've seen with Link/Cloud/Sephiroth in it.

Not to be a whore, but in case ya want the link...

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=20627823

...appreciate the props, by the way.


4 Carl "CJ" Johnson
13 Ganondorf

5 Bowser
12 Shadow the Hedgehog

Not a fan. I also didn't like Sonic bein' a three seed if he's not facing somebody stronger than Frog in the second round or someobody he could go 50/50 with in the third round, though the rest looks fair enough to justify.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Well, if I'm accomplished nothing more than bothering hm and anyone else on the subject of Samus vs Sephiroth, I'm more than satisfied. : P

And, you've been saying the vote totals won't plummet, but you really don't know that. Without the three biggest vote getters, it would follow that there wouldn't be as many voters. I personally don't think it would be anything to cry over, but it is nice to see the vote's spike, if only for a few matches.

Oh, and surprisingly, I don't think anyone else has mentioned this counter removing clink point. We wouldn't have a cloud vs link for one, this year. It is only one match, but I know some people have said they would switch back to Cloud this year, so it's not as if that match is decided, too.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

And, you've been saying the vote totals won't plummet, but you really don't know that.

You don't know that they will plummet either. It's an assumption both ways.


And Advent Children won't be released before the contest starts, which is making me completely rethink my position on Link/Cloud this year if we were to have it.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

Hmm, that's too bad then, cause it would have created controversy, not to mention all the controversy it had already created.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb

Gotta love controversy...but I was still ready to take Link again without a problem. Funny how this would be three contests in a row I'd pick Link if he's in it this year again.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Solid Division

1 Solid Snake
16 Lara Croft

8 Yoshi
9 Knuckles

4 Auron
13 Ryu Hayabusa

5 Ryu (SFII)
12 Tidus

6 Vincent
11 Squall

3 Magus
14 Luigi

7 Morrigan
10 Strider

2 Zero
15 Crash Bandicoot

I love the fact that you call it the "Solid" division when it's the softest division in the bracket. =) Not that it's a bad division, having three potential winners is pretty good.

You have some good matchups. I like your Donkey Kong vs. Sub-Zero and Alucard vs. Vivi matches.

My main complaint about the bracket would have to be the seeding. The one that pains me the most is Luigi as a 14 vs. Magus - there has to be a better place for Luigi than that. It's true that seeding has to be flexible to set up good matches, but I don't think it's a good idea to ignore it quite as much as you did overall.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.

From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 4/25/2005 6:34:49 PM | Message Detail
I have touched it up a few times. My final touchup was actually today. I changed Wesker>Diablo to Diablo>Wesker.

If you actually have Wesker vs Diablo, that's not a bad change of heart.

~*ST*~
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Get the X out.

Yeah, what Ulti said. Wesker won't be THAT strong.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

He won't even be strong enough to beat the greatest video game character of all time in the first place. May I interest you in going a step further?
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja

Hey, this is a milestone: the Xbox is actually beating the GameCube in a system popularity poll (well, sort of.)
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.