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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 111
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:06:44 PM | Message Detail
I'd rather have sephiroth win a legitimate championship taking down legitimate competitors than have him just being removed because he "most likely would win." And, we all know more than able brackets can be made leaving sephiroth in with clink out. The matches can be set so that we have megaman/crono and samus/mario or whatever, it's not as if a good bracket can't be made with the big three in it.

And for the record, what's the point of a character "winning" the contest if all the strongest competitors are removed? If its an acknowledgement of "who's getting fourth", well we can do that in the regular summer contest setting, too.
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One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:13:31 PM | Message Detail
Sephiroth is winning a legitimate contest with strong competitors. Sure, none of them are as strong as you would find in Samus, Crono, etc. but there isn't any question on whether or not Sephiroth is capable of winning those matches. The only way I support removing Cloud and Link is if Sephiroth was to tag along and go with them. A Summer Contest without Cloud/Link but with Sephiroth would suck complete and utter ass. I'm sorry, but you and those other people can fantasize about Samus beating him but when it comes down to it she wouldn't even get close to doing so during the actual match.

You're right, though. The winner isn't as important as the overall bracket itself, but why not have the option - and this is option now, not necessarily something you would do - to take either Samus / Crono / Mario / Mega Man as a champion and it not be "crazy" either way. Sure, choosing some of them are less favorable than others because they aren't all equal. But they are close enough that choosing one as a champion isn't a longshot. Combine that with the overall bracket unpredictability and I don't see where the problem arises. So we miss Cloud / Link / Sephiroth for a contest. Whoopdiedo!

---
“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:24:31 PM | Message Detail
The thing here is, Cloud and Link have a 50/50 shot each. Samus doesn't break even money against her 3 near-competitors (one of which used to be ranked ahead of her). Sephiroth? Easily outclasses anything you can throw at him if CnL are on the bench. He's tier 1.5, all on his own, and the closest anyone is going to get will still be further away from winning than Mario was against Crono last year... a match universally considered to be a disappointment even for those who wanted to see Crono take it.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:27:43 PM | Message Detail
I still can't shake the feeling of a Clinkeroth-less bracket with a final three-way between Cloud, Link, and our 2K5 champion. Logically, it makes no sense, but neither does a 3-seed Hayabusa.
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Can the Angel of Death overcome the power of the Dark Force? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:41:05 PM | Message Detail
The sheer force of bracket voters will make for a self-fulfilling prophecy on this one, should Cloud and Link ever be absent while Sephiroth is not. That'd undoubtedly be the highest number of summer contest brackets choosing the same winner even if it's not to the degree that this spring's contest will be.

True, the champ will be much easier to predict if Clink is taken out while Sephiroth's still in the game. But, that's only the champ. Now, with Cloud, Link, and Seph, 3 of the Final 4 would be locks if they were all in separate divisions. Remove Cloud and Link and there'd be just one division we would be certain on (assuming the other divisional finals were wisely set up, of course). That'll more than make up for the sky high accuracy of picking the correct winner.

So, while I'm with the rest of you to take out the entire Clinkeroth, I'd still rather see just Sephiroth than the whole unstoppable trio.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: creativename | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:49:15 PM | Message Detail
Here's what I think the most likely Summer Contest possibilities are:

*Regular Character Contest, minus the Big Three
*A Heroes Contest
*A Tag-Team contest
(I'm surprised no one's mentioned this recently)

I think a tag-team one is actually the most likely among these, if we are to give any weight to that CJayC "not exactly" quote.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!
From: CountCrazy007 | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:52:42 PM | Message Detail
What "not exactly" quote are you talking about?
From: creativename | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:56:08 PM | Message Detail
The one where he supposedly said that in response to being asked whether Link and Cloud would be removed. Though I'm only going by hearsay on that.

A post-contest three-way would also fit, but I don't think that's likely.

And who knows if CJayC had decided what he was going to do, or was paying much attention to what he was saying, when he made that quote.
---
In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:24:12 PM | Message Detail
I'm sure CJayC had an idea in mind when he made that statement, though he could change his mind. He might just try to limit Clinkeroth by putting them all in the same division or something.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:46:06 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:46:57 PM | Message Detail
I haven't yet seen a good reason for the exclusion of Clinkeroth from future contests. So Ceej loses his three biggest draws, and on top of that, the contest is nearly as predictable as it would be with them? Sounds like alose-lose situation to me.

Besides, Clinkeroth is involved in, what, 15 of the matches in the contest out of 63? If it's really that much of a problem, put all three of them in the same division, I say (preferrably the last division, because then there'd be hardly anything after Cloud/Link/Sephiroth emerged victorious anyway.) But to outright exclude them is just plain stupid.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: pubbisk | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:50:28 PM | Message Detail
Besides, Clinkeroth is involved in, what, 15 of the matches in the contest out of 63? If it's really that much of a problem, put all three of them in the same division, I say (preferrably the last division, because then there'd be hardly anything after Cloud/Link/Sephiroth emerged victorious anyway.)


What fun would that be? If that's the case, you end up with a meaningless "final" like in the 2004 Spring Contest. Everyone knows that FF7/OoT was the real final, much like a Cloud/Link division final would in essence be the deciding match of the contest.
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I think, therefore I am an exception to the rule on GameFAQs.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:52:00 PM | Message Detail
Guru List:

01 - UltimateralizerX
02 - Team Rocket Elite
03 - MasterMage119
04 - HaRRicH
05 - Haste2
06 - RPGuy96
07 - H4L187
08 - cyko
09 - Robazoid
10 - Janus5000
11 - DomaDragoon
12 - Mithrandir1331
13 - Nightmare 45
14 - Starion
15 - King Morgoth
16 - Fiop
17 - yoblazer33
18 - Phediuk
19 - FastFalcon05
20 - imdapartystar
21 - smitelf
22 - jonthomson
23 - Mister Mario
24 - nh82
25 - Shake
26 - stepintothearena
27 - Rufus Shinra 18
28 - charmander6000
29 - Sephirot1
30 - Tediz247
31 - ExThaNemesis
32 - Kuge
33 - SwanMocker
34 - JonthePenguin
35 - ChocoCid
36 - Ngamer
37 - CaptainFlufflez
38 - ExquisiteSamurai
39 - Young Boy
40 - Kaxon
41 - Shdwdde
42 - Garsha
43 - FFDragon
44 - Steinershocker
45 - Sir Bormun
46 - swirldude
47 - Heroic Mario
48 - Weird Kirby Dude11
49 - arkenaga
50 - Taslion
51 - perdevious
52 - Meche313
53 - Mumei
54 - MegatokyoED
55 - Z1mZum
56 - RamzaB
57 - nifboy
58 - Paratroopa1
59 - A Hogasm IN POG FORM
60 - greatone10
61 - VicPez
62 - Samurai7
63 - Master Moltar
64 - Yesmar
65 - RPGGamer0
66 - Zylo the wolf
67 - Fantusta
68 - Mac Arrowny
69 - ChichiriMuyo
70 - Redtooth
71 - Blade X
72 - TheCalmness
73 - Qwaar
74 - Tai
75 - Lieutenant Kettch
76 - Neoatomtaco
77 - ScorpionX3
78 - Fett0001
79 - neonreaper
80 - zMega64
81 - Smurf
82 - Aprosenf
83 - Buzzup
84 - mrbird99
85 - octoinky
86 - irriadin
87 - dethwing
88 - Steve Illumina
89 - Cavemanbob
90 - The Wise Tonberry
91 - iGenesis
92 - Heroic Viktor (tnote827)
93 - PugTheNinja
94 - Ringworm
95 - Silverflame
96 - ImSoBlazed
97 - Andaca
98 - Tjian
99 - MacrosTheBlack
100 - Forceful Dragon

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:54:19 PM | Message Detail
That's the point I'm trying to make.

The finals have never been very exciting in these contests; Link even managed to keep a healthy distance from Cloud all through their match against each other.

By having Cloud/Link in the last division finals, though, we'll only have to "suffer" through three more matches afterwards. Not that I think they should all be lumped together in the same division, by the way.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Xstats | Posted: 4/25/2005 1:40:16 AM | Message Detail
The only match that will be close in the upcoming contest will be Ridley vs Diablo, which will be decided by less than 300 votes. Every other match will be relatively distanced, save Kekfa's match against Ridley.
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I am always correct. -Extrapolated Standings
http://www.sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k4_extrapolated_sff.htm
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 4:21:02 AM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, X-stats? Well you're wrong!

</useless arguing>
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/25/2005 8:49:39 AM | Message Detail
The only match that will be close? I'm not even convinced that match will be close, and I have much more reason to believe some other matches will be close.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 9:25:52 AM | Message Detail
I think Ridley/Diablo is plenty worth the debate, yet I don't think it'll be a barnburner; I figure the winner will win it in a Tidus/Ganon or Ganon/Magus fashion. They were both good close matches, but not excitement to the very last second.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/25/2005 9:54:23 AM | Message Detail
Eh.
---
But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: Xstats | Posted: 4/25/2005 10:43:17 AM | Message Detail
There is no arguing with me. I am always right.
---
I am always correct. -Extrapolated Standings
http://www.sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k4_extrapolated_sff.htm
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 10:45:32 AM | Message Detail
Nu-uh; you cost me a point against Tidus/Shadow. Granted, I had other reasoning besides you, but you were still wrong.

Ha-ha!
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Xstats | Posted: 4/25/2005 10:51:47 AM | Message Detail
Only a fool would have picked Shadow to defeat Tidus, mainly because the only argument that could be made for Shadow is his one overperformance against Mario. If you can't see why a Sonic character would overperform against a Mario character, I feel sorry for you.
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I am always correct. -Extrapolated Standings
http://www.sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k4_extrapolated_sff.htm
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 10:52:05 AM | Message Detail
Well, that's what you get for not listening to me. I stated Tidus would win from day one and had no reason to doubt he would lose that match.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 10:56:53 AM | Message Detail
Even then, 45% against Mario >> 41% against Sonic. It was plenty reasonable, and the match showed it.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 10:59:09 AM | Message Detail
Even then, 45% against Mario >> 41% against Sonic. It was plenty reasonable, and the match showed it.

Of course the match was going to be close. I never said it wouldn't be. I just never had a doubt that Tidus would be the one on top. Oh, and that 41% was in 2002. Tidus fell just short of Ganondorf, who fell just short of Magus, who ranked just ahead of Sonic in 2003. It's obvious that Tidus had come a little ways since his match with Sonic.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:04:20 AM | Message Detail
Right, but I think Shadow's 45% on Mario was legit; afterall, he certainly kept up with Tidus, didn't he?

The point is, alt here was wrong, and I can laugh at him despite the fact I lost a point in the same match.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Garsha | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:06:43 AM | Message Detail
I glad Tidus beat Shadow. Serves those Sonic Fanboys right.
---
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfiction:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=579546&topic=20526094
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:07:40 AM | Message Detail
And I can laugh at you because I knew he'd be wrong without having to see the match. Bwahahahaha.

Seriously though, if you're dealing with two characters who are practically even in the stats, the advantage ALWAYS goes to Zelda first, and then Final Fantasy. It was pretty obvious that Tidus would have the bracket advantage (and boy did he, 70%), and that's all the difference he needed.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: Mumei | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:08:08 AM | Message Detail
... I took a certain vindictive pleasure in seeing Shadow lose, especially after listening to Edouble and UltimateKael for God knows how long.
---
Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:09:20 AM | Message Detail
Well, maybe not always. Magus over Ganon would be an exception.

Anyway, the idea is that if one character is Square/Nintendo and the other isn't, it's pretty obvious where the advantage lies.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:10:17 AM | Message Detail
I don't think anybody derived more pleasure from Tidus beating Shadow than I did.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:14:22 AM | Message Detail
I don't care for either of them, personally.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:15:01 AM | Message Detail
You haven't even played Final Fantasy X anyway. Of course you don't care about Tidus.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:23:18 AM | Message Detail
Nor have I played Sonic Heroes, so of course I don't care for Shadow.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:25:16 AM | Message Detail
Shadow doesn't originate there anyway, but whatever. I was assuming that it was impossible for people to like him, so I didn't mention it.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:30:46 AM | Message Detail
Eh, well, lemme build onto that then: I haven't played KH or whatever Sonic game Shadow came from, either. Done. I do despise the idea and premise of Shadow though.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:39:36 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't care about Tidus either if all I knew him from was Kingdom Hearts. He's just a tutorial fight.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: GodOfGaming | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:46:34 AM | Message Detail
I've been switching around my bracket a little.

I think I might be underestimating Robotnik and Wily a little.
I have Ocelot wining against Wily. Just have that feeling that a lot of people felt.

I switched around and have Kuja over Robotnik instead of Robotnik over Kuja that I had originally.

M.Bison. Do you think he can take down Ridley/Diablo and lose to Kefka in the next match?
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The reason why you couldn't see my Signature before is because it was Invisible
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 11:47:25 AM | Message Detail
If Bison can beat Ridley/Diablo, he can beat Kefka.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 12:10:57 PM | Message Detail
Again...

Ridley >or= Diablo >or= Kefka >or= M. Bison

...obviously my opinion and educated guess, but should M. Bison be able to make it to Kefka after beating Ridley or Diablo, he'd have my faith to beat Kefka too. Yes, that'd disagree with my lil' equation, but I suspect I'm underestimating M. Bison before I'm over-estimating Ridley/Diablo if I'm wrong on this matter, so there.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 4/25/2005 12:12:47 PM | Message Detail
I can only see one character beat Kefka in his division and that's Diablo. M.Bison could upset Ridley/Diablo or perhaps even lose to Albedo, but he won't beat Kefka.
---
Just like everything quiet and beautiful on this planet, my thread was ruined by man. Sakura 26
Zelos: Don't hate me just because I'm beautiful.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/25/2005 12:55:21 PM | Message Detail
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/25/2005 2:10:17 PM | #081
I don't think anybody derived more pleasure from Tidus beating Shadow than I did.

Dot dot ****ing dot. That match was orgasmic.

And HaRRicH, Shadow's actually slightly more tolerable in Sonic Heroes than in SA2, because there are less cutscenes, Rouge and Omega get to do some talking in his place and whatnot.

Tidus had the "benefit of the doubt" advantage in that match, and it really paid off. Not quite as much as I'd have expected, but who am I to complain? SHADOW LOST W00T
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/25/2005 1:03:28 PM | Message Detail
I do believe you'd go to great lengths to abolish all things Shadow-the-Hedgehoggy.


So I've been workin' on a summer-contest bracket today (I'll make a different thread for it so it doesn't clog this thread, though I'll post a link), and I got to wonderin' how these five would rank, from strongest to weakest:

Raiden
Zidane
Knuckles
CJ
Revolver Ocelot
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/25/2005 1:06:35 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Ocelot > Zidane > CJ > Raiden would be my best bet.
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/25/2005 1:13:27 PM | Message Detail
I'd go with Ocelot > Knux > CJ > Zidane > Raiden.
---
Proud supporter of Ghaleon, Kefka, Ultros, Liquid, Ocelot, and Wily!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/25/2005 4:25:25 PM | Message Detail
I don't enjoy resurrecting the issue, particularly because I don't support it much, but we're all acting as if the characters in the summer contest, or at least the more established ones, can never change.

Samus Aran 47.36% 46047
Sephiroth 52.64% 51177
TOTAL VOTES 97224

That was Samus and Seph's first encounter, and as you see, it was fairly close. Please don't remind me that they've both changed since then, because, believe me, I know. But to act as if such results could never happen again is just, well, almost denying past results. The characters change every year; crazy things have happened and will continue to happen. Mario has beaten Cloud. Samus was close to Sephiroth. The fact that these things has happened shows they can in fact happen. If you have to remove anyone, get rid of Cloud and Link, but leave sephiroth. He both deserves the chance to win, and the (and I'll admit very slim) chance to lose.

But, in my opinion, don't take anyone out. The strong win. The end. Difficult brackets can still be made.

---
One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: therealmnm | Posted: 4/25/2005 4:30:12 PM | Message Detail
Don't forget that Sephiroth was the same Sephiroth that Mega Man got 49.5% on....
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/25/2005 4:34:22 PM | Message Detail
Right, but the point is to show that the characters are capable of changing.
---
One who knows nothing can understand nothing.
"Revenge is a dish best served cold." - Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 4/25/2005 4:35:12 PM | Message Detail
That won't ever happen again, Sephiroth is leagues above the other characters. It's like DBZ where Goku used to be on the same level as his freinds and foes but is now leauges beyond them.

And I woulden't say M. Bison can't beat Kefka, Kefka struggled with Pac Man, and do you remember who beat Pac Man the year before that?
---
BANG BANG BANG VIPER BEAM!
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 4/25/2005 4:38:41 PM | Message Detail
That won't ever happen again, Sephiroth is leagues above the other characters. It's like DBZ where Goku used to be on the same level as his freinds and foes but is now leauges beyond them.

Not only is that statement not grounded in facts, but your metaphor only lowered my respect for you.
---
"From now on, anyone that makes fun of me, I'll kill them, just like that!"
"Eddie, have you gone nuts?"
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