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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 110
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:05:43 AM | Message Detail
The only way I support a "champ-less" bracket is if Sephiroth goes with Link and Cloud. If he doesn't, then I'm all for keeping the other two. It's the thought of potentially being able to choose from four characters and each one being given a good case for taking it that I enjoy. It might not turn out that way once things get rolling, but there's the chance that any one of those could come and take it.

But again, the only way I'd support such an idea is if you removed Cloud, Link, and Sephiroth. Otherwise, keep them all in.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: Kaxon | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:25:53 AM | Message Detail
I agree, I was against getting rid of Cloud and Link, but if Sephiroth goes too then I'm in favor of it.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:42:33 AM | Message Detail
I actually think that out of Megaman, Crono and Mario, Crono has the best, and virtually only, shot at Samus.

I've never been in favor of champ-less brackets, and never will be. Give me Link/Cloud instead of Samus/Crono, any day of the week.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:44:02 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Holy Excalibur | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:46:50 AM | Message Detail
I'd like to see 64 new characters once. Just some snubs from some of the games that are out there.

Maybe we'd see Tifa, and Seifer, instead of Cloud and Squall.

I'm sure 99.999~% of the people disagree with me. But it'd make for an interesting contest.
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Would you recommend putting some tonberrys in Fina?
Note- i do not want to put a green creature w/ a lantern in her, i meant moonberrys- Blake
From: jonthomson | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:48:25 AM | Message Detail
I actually think that out of Megaman, Crono and Mario, Crono has the best, and virtually only, shot at Samus.

Mario would beat Samus.
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Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:49:10 AM | Message Detail
Incidentally, has anyone ever tried [arbitrarily] setting 2004's Link equal to 2003's Cloud in comparing years? Both seemed way too strong to be real in their respective years.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:49:27 AM | Message Detail
Um, no. Link failed to get SFF on either, so I don't think Mario could do it to Samus.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 4/24/2005 6:58:44 AM | Message Detail
I don't see why it's impossible that Link SFF'ed Samus in 2003.

Samus beat:
- Squall
- Luigi
- Ratchet
- Jill Valentine
- KOS-MOS
- Crash
- Isaac

Right off we can discount Ratchet, Crash, and Isaac; fodder will do that for ya. Squall is hard to tell because of the SFF against Cloud and the Sephiroth/Alucard/Kirby/Bomberman fiasco. Luigi was double-SFF'ed, so we have no idea where he stands. That leaves Jill and KOS-MOS, for whom I have absolutely no explanation. But just using common sense, it would make sense that Link would get SFF on Samus, especially if she got a massive boost out of nowhere - one year after Metroid Prime.

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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/24/2005 7:01:28 AM | Message Detail
Amazing Telephone postulated that this contest was a direct handout to Sephiroth just so we could have a bracket without Clinkeroth.

He has a point.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/24/2005 7:03:58 AM | Message Detail
According to Squall's matches against Bomberman and Kirby, he would have actually gone DOWN a notch. Jill went down massively, we know that, and KOS-MOS came within half a percent of the projection against Ryu. Crash and Ratchet underperformed big-time as well in 2004. All signs point to, if there's any anomaly, REVERSE SFF. The only thing that would go against this is Luigi's overperformance against Pac-Man followed by Kefka's strong showing against Knuckles.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 7:28:46 AM | Message Detail
Things change from year to year. Last year Link climbed 3.5% and Samus climbed 4.5% for no real reason. That kind of change for one of the other characters would be enough to close the gap with Samus. Supposedly traffic is up a lot right now - the last time the contest had a big increase in traffic (2003), things changed a lot.

You can make exactly the same argument with Cloud and Link.

Besides, it's not the champion that matters; it's all the matches in between. No one has ever won the contest by 32 points; it's always by 1 or 2.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:00:41 AM | Message Detail
Besides, it's not the champion that matters; it's all the matches in between. No one has ever won the contest by 32 points; it's always by 1 or 2.

Well goddamn! *rushes off to change bracket at this news*
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven
From: Chococid | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:07:27 AM | Message Detail
Amazing Telephone postulated that this contest was a direct handout to Sephiroth just so we could have a bracket without Clinkeroth.


I agree with that in its entirety.
*shrug*
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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:22:45 AM | Message Detail
Well, I don't think this is merely a 'handout.' It is actually a pretty good idea to have a villains contest, just as it would be a good idea having a heros contest. It just so happens that there is one villain who is worlds above every other villain. And that villain just happens to be Sephiroth.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05
Fighting Illini (37-2): #2 in the nation, #1 in our hearts
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/24/2005 8:35:33 AM | Message Detail
I really hope we don't have a heroes-contest, 'cuz that's almost a summer contest, minus about, what, maybe ten characters? Just give us the regular thing instead of that silly label.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:22:05 AM | Message Detail
Well, I threw the idea of a supporting characters contest out there a few topics ago.

In other words, neither the main hero nor the main villain would be allowed in. I think that'd make for a pretty interesting contest.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:29:02 AM | Message Detail
That could make for an odd contest when deciding who is eligble or not. I can think of some characters who have played both roles.

Besides, it's not the champion that matters; it's all the matches in between. No one has ever won the contest by 32 points; it's always by 1 or 2.

It works both ways, though I lean toward the winner being more important. The early matches all matter, but if you screw up the winner, you're done. You can afford an early mistake or two. Maybe not in this contest, but you see the point.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:31:08 AM | Message Detail
I actually think that out of Megaman, Crono and Mario, Crono has the best, and virtually only, shot at Samus.

Each of them have more than just a small chance against the likes of Samus. And considering that there's little in the way to accurately judge Mega Man and Mario could very well beat Samus, I wouldn't say that Crono is the only one with a shot. But he probably is the best one who does. But still, the possibility of four winners to choose from and make a case for sounds incredible over having the same two choice for winners and watch three out of the four final four spots occupied by them.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:32:51 AM | Message Detail
Well, I threw the idea of a supporting characters contest out there a few topics ago.

No thank you to that. It would be boring as sin. I would much rather prefer a simple Summer Contest over the likes of that.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:35:34 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:36:28 AM | Message Detail
I think Mario would be the only one with a shot, actually.

On a side note, Crono > Mario > Samus > Crono may be the only viable case we have for A > B > C > A, given that Samus beating Mario is a longshot at best. I'm aware of her strength, but still. I just can't see that many Nintendo fans voting in a transitive manner in a Mario vs Samus match.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:36:59 AM | Message Detail
That could make for an odd contest when deciding who is eligble or not. I can think of some characters who have played both roles.

That is true; in a game like Final Fantasy VI, there isn't a clearly defined main character.

There's also the issue of spinoffs: Wario has starred in numerous games, but I'd certainly consider him a supporting character...and he's also the main villain in SML2.

Someone like DK is also difficult: in his first game, he's the bad guy, in DKC, he's the good guy, and in everything else, he's a supporting character.

I think that if such a contest were to be held, all roles in spinoff games would need to be null and void. That would make for a lot less confusion.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:37:02 AM | Message Detail
I still don't see why some people wouldn't give Crono at shot at doing so. I understand what you mean with Mario, but it isn't as though Crono is drastically below her.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:44:35 AM | Message Detail
Against Samus: Mario > Crono > Mega Man
In general: Crono > Mario > Mega Man

If I were to guess, anyways.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:46:36 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and I don't think Mega Man would beat any of those three, sadly enough. I could see Crono or Mario beating Samus (though I wouldn't bank on it), and they've both beat each other too. Mega Man though...sucks, but he'd be a tier below those three methinks.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:50:51 AM | Message Detail
I still don't see the arguments for Samus beating Mario. Samus has shown that she can avoid SFF against Nintendo's strongest, so why wouldn't she be able to avoid rSFF against Mario?
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I'm like a mentally insane girl who keeps running back to her abusive boyfriend. ~ Mars
ZSB [aX]
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:54:59 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man was just odd last year. I'd like to see him in action again before saying he'd be a tier below those three.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/24/2005 9:58:13 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, we're just going to continue to slight MM for last years stupidly bad matchup when everything else, even his match against Snake, really suggest that he deserved his 4th place spot those first two years and that's still the most serious contender against Samus to take that spot again.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/24/2005 10:03:46 AM | Message Detail
I say that because if the theory about Mega Man is true in his match against Link where the fan-overlap goes in Nintendo's favor, I don't see him gettin' much better treatment against Mario or Samus...and with Crono gaining every year and was stronger than Mario last year already, I'd feel pretty good taking him over Mega Man too since him and Mario were indirectly near-equals in 2k3 (again, should memory serve me right).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/24/2005 10:08:44 AM | Message Detail
1. We have no proof Link didn't SFF Samus, we just go by the idea that it "looks right"

2. Link would have a much larger overlap with MM than Samus could possibly have.

3. Minus any possible SFF MM was quite level with Samus.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/24/2005 10:23:38 AM | Message Detail
1) It looks right enough for me. If Samus did get SFF'd though, she still looked more impressive in 2k4 than Mega Man did in 2k3.

2) With the gain Samus made last year and the boost she'll get this year (which won't be huge by any means, but it'll help her), ANY overlap could be enough to cost Mega Man the match.

3) Right...then 2k4 hit. Looking at the X-stats (yeah yeah, it's easy right now and I'm 'bout to leave), Samus had a higher percentage against Link 2k4 than Mega Man did against Link 2k3...and those are two different Links; we know Link 2k4 is stronger, there's practically no questioning that. Mega Man may have gained a lil' last year, but it's hard to tell (I think you'd have to base Solid Snake on a steady-or-barely-stronger Knuckles in order to get the most likely strength for Mega Man? Not sure) and it wouldn't have been much, what with MM:AC being the best thing he had going for him that year (not a knock; I own and love it).
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/24/2005 10:28:50 AM | Message Detail
That's fine and all, but all that was to explain why MM has a much better shot at her than Crono does without just saying "Crono has to gain twice as much in one year than he's gained in two, and Samus' new games can't have helped her in the last few months", and not to say that MM has a great shot at Samus. Because, you know, if you're paying close attention then you know I don't think any of them have a great shot at beating her.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/24/2005 10:45:44 AM | Message Detail
Misunderstood ya there then; between me mixing people up and not seeing Crono's name in your post, I jumped onto something else.

With Mega Man and Crono, it's as simple as this: I have seen Crono beat Mario, but I cannot see Mega Man beating Mario (though it would be close, granted). Mario and Mega Man were indirect equals in 2k3, and MM would have barely gained in 2k4 if he gained much at all. Crono, for whatever reason, has gained a seed and some strength every year. When I add all that up, all I see is a match Mega Man can't win without pulling something out of his ass (again, though close). Then from there, again, that potential Nintendo/Mega Man overlap (or perhaps it's just LoZ/Mega Man? Hmmm...), and that's why I see Crono with a better shot against Samus than Mega Man without having to gain twice as much as he has been.

Gotta go now; a long 2 1/2 hours of driving's ahead for me.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 4/24/2005 11:23:13 AM | Message Detail
1. We have no proof Link didn't SFF Samus, we just go by the idea that it "looks right"

Yeah, or maybe it's the idea that none of the other characters that would've been affected by it (KOS-MOS, Squall, Luigi, Jill Valentine) didn't appear to be any stronger than 2003. Heck, if anything, they looked WEAKER.
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Can't keep a good man down, baby!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/24/2005 11:30:30 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/24/2005 11:31:08 AM | Message Detail
Exactly. It's not because it "looks right", we're actually using evidence. We should have enough after three contests, y'know.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/24/2005 11:57:22 AM | Message Detail
Jesus...it's still another week 'til the contest starts. This is taking way too long.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/24/2005 12:09:03 PM | Message Detail
Hey, imagine how it was back when we had the whole month to do it.
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SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/24/2005 12:56:24 PM | Message Detail
Amazing Telephone postulated that this contest was a direct handout to Sephiroth just so we could have a bracket without Clinkeroth.

He has a point.


That crossed my mind as well. I hope that's the case. However, if that were true some people might complain that Sephiroth was excluded by defeating weak competition. :P

Slowflake talking about Samus vs. Link:
All signs point to, if there's any anomaly, REVERSE SFF.
The funny thing is that is that we KNOW for certain that Mario didn't get reverse SFF against Link (if anything, Link beneffited from it). That should tell us that, if anyone gets helped by SFF in Mario vs. Samus, it would be Samus, wouldn't you think? I say there wouldn't be any SFF in either direction, though.

Then, if you look at it the other way, Mario/Link SFF and no WDF: Then both Mario and Samus both suffered SFF, so there's still nothing that points to Mario having any advantage over Samus.

Oh, yeah, if you think there was no Mario SFF nor a WDF: well, why on Earth would you think there's Link/Samus SFF when evidence is overwhelming for the strange happenings occuring in 2002?

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:10:23 PM | Message Detail
What do you guys think of the idea of an enemy non-boss tournament? While it definitely needs a better name, I'm thinking of a tournament where the entrants are generic enemy creatures such as Goomba, Bob-omb, Koopa Troopa, Metool, Sniper Joe, Redead, Stalfos, Chuchu, Octorok, Behemoth, Iron Giant, Imp, Flan, etc. It's kind of fuzzy what enemies would be eligible, but I think it would be an interesting and very touch contest.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:11:28 PM | Message Detail
What do you guys think of the idea of an enemy non-boss tournament?

Zzzzzzzz
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Hi, I'm NOT partystar.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:12:14 PM | Message Detail
Koopa and Goomba would dominate that tournament, I think. Or maybe not.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:20:50 PM | Message Detail
What do you guys think of the idea of an enemy non-boss tournament?

Mass Carriers = instant win?

Seriously, I don't think very many people would be too enthusiastic about that kind of tournament, especially if it was a Ceej-hosted one.
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Can the Angel of Death overcome the power of the Dark Force? Find out at www.rpgdl.com!
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 4/24/2005 1:27:05 PM | Message Detail
can someone i/m me when i need to submit my bracket for guru. kthx.
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|| BtT 3:34.65 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
Spring2K5: 0/0 Next Pick: Bowser
From: Kaxon | Posted: 4/24/2005 2:02:36 PM | Message Detail
I decided to try to put together a bracket without Cloud, Link, and Sephiroth. It turned out to be harder than I thought (this was my first bracket). Any comments? (Obviously some of the ideas I used were not originally mine).

1 Samus
16 Pac-Man
8 Dante
9 Kirby
5 Alucard
12 Vincent Valentine
4 Bowser
13 Zidane
6 Knuckles
11 Raiden
3 Yoshi
14 Kerrigan
7 Luigi
10 Leon Kennedy
2 Solid Snake
15 Bomberman

1 Mario
16 CATS
8 Morrigan Aensland
9 Strider Hiryu
5 Tidus
12 Fayt Leingod
4 Auron
13 James Sunderland
6 Master Chief
11 Carl Johnson
3 Magus
14 Kratos (God of War)
7 Gordon Freeman
10 Crash Bandicoot
2 Sonic
15 Viewtiful Joe

1 Mega Man
16 Ness
8 Princess Peach
9 The Prince (Prince of Persia)
5 Sora
12 Vyse
4 Frog
13 Ridley
6 Zelda
11 Mog
3 Aerith
13 Lloyd Irving
7 KOS-MOS
10 Chun Li
2 Ganondorf
15 Nina Williams

1 Crono
16 Ecco the Dolphin
8 Donkey Kong
9 Tails
5 Squall
12 Protoman
4 Ryu
13 Shadow
6 Vivi
11 Fox McCloud
3 Liquid Snake
14 Tifa Lockheart
7 Ken Masters
10 Sub-Zero
2 Zero
15 Ghaleon
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 4/24/2005 2:15:38 PM | Message Detail
That looks pretty good, though I don't like seeing Kirby/Dante in round 1. I also think Magus has a better chance to upset Snake than Sonic.
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BtT: 3:43.45 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/24/2005 2:19:27 PM | Message Detail
That's actually a pretty good bracket. I also applaud putting Mario and Crono on opposite ends.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
From: Kaxon | Posted: 4/24/2005 2:22:02 PM | Message Detail
Thanks. Janus makes a good point, it might be better if I switch the Yoshi/Knuckles four pack with the Magus/Master Chief one.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/24/2005 2:23:13 PM | Message Detail
And yeah, I would say that Magus has a better shot at beating Snake than he would at beating Sonic.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”
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