...? I was just bein' a smart-ass, more or less; I think Robotnik/sin is still a toss-up, but I just really don't like the way Tai argues.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

If you want to make an argument for a Final Fantasy game being a little too cult, it's Tactics, not FFIX.

Don't know how or why this came up, either. Neither FF9 nor its characters were just now mentioned, though I do wanna go on the record saying I've never called FF9 cult. FFT, while I see being a lil' weaker than FF9, is still essentially tied with MGS here...that's hardly "cult" at all.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

People still treat FFIX like it's the red-headed stepchild that nobody knows or likes. Unless you look at it that way, I can't see any reason why you think Kuja would lose, other than grossly (and I stress grossly, when you start taking Master Hand over many from his own game) overestimating Master Hand.
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Yes, I know most of you know who I am by now. But shh! Don't tell anyone <_<

I think I'll be wrong from under-estimating Kuja before I'm wrong from over-estimating Master Hand, personally.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Although it'll be both at the same time, but whatever.
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Yes, I know most of you know who I am by now. But shh! Don't tell anyone <_<

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 4/23/2005 3:53:26 PM | #343
Those statistics are misleading. Kefka's half of the bracket has very little that can threaten Kefka. Ridley and Diablo have to deal with each other. As a result they are splitting the number of brackets that have Kefka losing.

No, things don't work like that. Sure, Kefka has 40-ish brackets losing in that round, and Ridley and Diablo have less, but that's because they threaten each other beforehand to begin with. In a way, this can be translated in a "who's the strongest out of those three", and more people think Kefka could take both Diablo and Ridley than people who think Diablo could take Kefka and Ridley or people who think Ridley could take Kefka and Diablo.
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja

Although that's not necessarily true. Those stats don't reflect how many would take both Ridley and Diablo over Kefka.
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Yes, I know most of you know who I am by now. But shh! Don't tell anyone <_<

The issue's not who's second strongest here, unless Kefka wins the division. It's about being the strongest of the trio, and that's where the bacon lies.
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja

Ridley >or= Diablo >or= Kefka, personally.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Ridley > Kefka > Diablo.

---
“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

You're not understanding Slowflake...it's a question of how the distributions are related.

The issue's not who's second strongest here, unless Kefka wins the division. It's about being the strongest of the trio, and that's where the bacon lies.

Not true. It's the distribution that matters.

The point is that the consensus opinion could very well be that Kefka is weaker than Diablo and/or Ridley, but that this could be masked by Diablo/Ridley facing each other, since Kefka is facing little competition. And consensus opinion is what the BOP is all about.

But, it's a complicated question, and we can't really answer it that well.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

Slow has the right idea here. You don't have any idea how each person with Kefka winning thinks Ridley and Diablo stack up to him; similarly, from the 25 people with Ridley winning, a good majority may think that Kefka is stronger than Diablo is well.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Gah. I always sound incoherent/illiterate when I try to put into words my interpretation of the stats...
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Hey, you're not alone. But at least I have the "second language" excuse... do you?
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja

If he lives in the South, he does.
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Yes, I know most of you know who I am by now. But shh! Don't tell anyone <_<

Hey, you're not alone. But at least I have the "second language" excuse... do you?

On a purely technical level, my first language is Chinese. I can't speak Chinese fluently anymore, but for my first three years in life, I spoke more Chinese than English. =X
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

You don't have any idea how each person with Kefka winning thinks Ridley and Diablo stack up to him; similarly, from the 25 people with Ridley winning, a good majority may think that Kefka is stronger than Diablo is well.

That's why it's a complicated question that we can't answer well.

Just because Kefka has more picks to win the division than Diablo and Ridley do separately, doesn't mean that Kefka being stronger than both of them is the consensus opinion of the BOP.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

...? I was just bein' a smart-ass, more or less; I think Robotnik/sin is still a toss-up, but I just really don't like the way Tai argues.

Just a risk I'm willing to take..take it or leave it.
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (137 Signs!)

Just because Kefka has more picks to win the division than Diablo and Ridley do separately, doesn't mean that Kefka being stronger than both of them is the consensus opinion of the BOP.

Yeah, but it does mean that at least 40% or so would take Kefka over either. It's similar to Yoshi/Knuckles winning their respective polls.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Just because Kefka has more picks to win the division than Diablo and Ridley do separately, doesn't mean that Kefka being stronger than both of them is the consensus opinion of the BOP.

Then what is it?
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (137 Signs!)

Just a risk I'm willing to take..take it or leave it.

Not saying you're wrong, I was just making it known your arguement for it was bad.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Yeah, but it does mean that at least 40% or so would take Kefka over either.

This is a question of 39% vs. 31% vs. 29%. Not exactly overwhelming. To say that it's "40% over either" is misleading.

Then what is it?

As has already been stated...we don't know. It's very complicated.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

Kefka being thought to be stronger than Ridley or Diablo depends on the second-place spreads, which are definitely an unknown. But it's not too far-fetched to think that:

- 9 out of 25 people with Diablo winning would put Kefka over Ridley;
- 9 out of 23 people with Ridley winning would put Kefka over Diablo.

It all depends on that, really.
---
SpC2K5 Elite 8
BOWSER, Ocelot, SEPHIROTH, Liquid, KEFKA, Ridley, GANONDORF, Kuja

Just because Kefka has more picks to win the division than Diablo and Ridley do separately, doesn't mean that Kefka being stronger than both of them is the consensus opinion of the BOP.

To put it simply (and others may have inferred this in the last little bit), here are two ways that Kefka may not have the highest expectations of the three:

1)The majority of those who have Diablo/Ridley would pick the other member of Diablo/Ridley over Kefka.
2)People are trying to play it safe by picking Kefka to win the division. Maybe it's okay if you want to pickup some guaranteed points SOMEWHERE. Though, generally speaking, the one that makes it through the GREATER competition would be more likely to win a division. This is mainly because we are uncertain of every characters' strength, which means all characters have potential to be underestimated. If there's a lot of competition there's a great chance that one of them will be much stronger than we anticipated.

So, I wouldn't say that Ridley or Diablo by themselves have a good shot at beating Kefka. But, I say that whoever wins out of the two of them will have a much better shot at beating him. Get it? =P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

The majority of those who have Diablo/Ridley would pick the other member of Diablo/Ridley over Kefka.

That fits me, at least.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

9 out of 23 people with Ridley winning would put Kefka over Diablo.

I'm in that category. The prediction percentage for Ridley-Diablo is going to be interesting...
---
Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

I think Diablo could beat Kefka, while I don't think Ridley could do the same. That's the logic that influenced by choice for good.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal

That's the logic that influenced by choice for good.
Sorry that you have a cold. :(

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'm interested in the prediction percentage when Ridley beats Bison, and how similar it is to Ridley/Diablo.

I'm just remembering that the majority of those who picked Starcraft to beat Halo also picked it over Kingdom Hearts, and about half of those picked SC to get to the Elite Eight.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

If I remember correctly, a bit over half the picks of SC over Halo picked SC over KH/SoulC.
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"To sit at home, read one's favorite paper, and scoff at the men who do things is easy, but markedly ineffective" --Theodore Roosevelt

If I remember correctly, a bit over half the picks of SC over Halo picked SC over KH/SoulC.

Halo/SC: 25%

SC/Round 2: 14%

SC/Round 3: 8%

They're fairly faithful.
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

That Magus battle was interesting. The whole dark matter thing strikes as being slightly unfair :-)
---
Jon Thomson - knows nothing
Ridley's Road to Victory - Round 1 vs. (7) Diablo

Magus' Dark Matter was the biggest joke in that game IMHO. I killed him with Frog alone the first time through. =P
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"I don't care about your instrument! My god is communicating with me!"
- Ludwig van Beethoven

Can Kefka really be considered the "safe" choice. The only thing that might make him ocnsiderably safe is that he's been in contests before and we know roughly where he stands. Outside of that there's nothing safe about him or anyone else there.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Heh. Dark Matter wasn't that big a deal on your guys if you're high enough in level. But the Magus battle was a great one.

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“Booster has such a nice place…I miss my fortress…I miss the good old days…Toadstool screaming in terror, Mario rushing in to save her…”

Can Kefka really be considered the "safe" choice. The only thing that might make him ocnsiderably safe is that he's been in contests before and we know roughly where he stands. Outside of that there's nothing safe about him or anyone else there.

i really don't think anyone in the Ruin Division can be considered a safe pick to go to the Final Four. Kefka, Ridley, and Diablo seem to be much safer picks than all those other chumps, but none of them have any reason to be a clear favorite at this point.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

Which was precisely what I was getting at.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

Here's something Chichiri mentioned yesterday...

As for a champ free bracket... not any more unpredictable than having Link and Cloud there. Face it, Samus has some clear domination there with the only competition being Mario and Mega Man. Those both rely on some Ifs. Mario relies on two, he doesn't face Crono and he gets the Nintendo fanbase support for being more important to the company. That requires serious company loyalty. MM's shot is the outside chance that last year somehting goofy happened and that he's as strong as 2k2 and 2k3 say he is. Crono, sadly, would still lose to Samus. He'd put up a wonderful fight, but narrowly lose unless somehow the Square fanbase rallied around him like he was Cloud and they didn't do the same for Samus in place of Link. Too many Ifs for all her potential opponents, while no Ifs for he means that she basically has it. When you have to make up every excuse in the book for her to lose but you don't need any for her to win you should know what will happen.

I don't agree with this analysis. Obviously, Samus would be the favorite, but she'd be far from a lock.

Things change from year to year. Last year Link climbed 3.5% and Samus climbed 4.5% for no real reason. That kind of change for one of the other characters would be enough to close the gap with Samus. Supposedly traffic is up a lot right now - the last time the contest had a big increase in traffic (2003), things changed a lot.

Also, out of the main contenders in a champion-free bracket (Samus, Crono, Mario, and Mega Man), only Crono and Mario have faced each other before. Those matches might not go exactly as we'd expect.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.

Which was precisely what I was getting at.

which was precisely why i was agreeing with you. =P

---
VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

Dark Matter alone prevents a perfect low level game; you need to go through one extra battle to get one more level so that Frog has enough HP to survive it. :(
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"What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease." -- The Art of War

Yeah, but Link/Cloud is 50/50... Samus/Mario/MM/Crono is more like 50/15/20/15 as far as I'm seeing it, and even considering that there may be a swing this year I'm still not seeing it lower than 40% for Samus. That 50% for Samus is no worse than Cloud or Link's 50% in some ways, but since no one steps up to really match her chances it deffinately puts things in her favor.

The way I see their chances in a direct match, with as much benefit being given to the non-Samus character as possible.
Samus vs. MM - 60/40
Samus vs. Mario - 65/35
Samus vs Crono - 70/30

And in case anybody gets smart and has to ask if I'm crazy/stoned/drunk/stupid I'll say up fron I have had a couple drinks. Since this is going unspell checked you can compare how badly my spelling and grammar drops off from its normal lows to determine how impared my thinking likely is.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

Given that this past year, Samus would beat Crono with 52.93%, I don't know why you are putting his chances so low. Especially when you consider that he has a habit of growing a little each year for no particular reason.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

I guess my take is not that different from yours, the main difference is that I would put Crono's chances ahead of Mario's and Mega Man's. But if you're right about those percentages, I would definitely consider 50/15/20/15 a more interesting contest than 50/50.
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SC2k4 Oracle ranking: 4th
Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest.

I'm putting Crono's lowest because I think that MM was mis-represented in the last contest and that he is stronger and that Mario has an outside chance of winning the Nintendo fanbase over for being more iconic. Realistically I still think they all lose unless MM is stronger than the stats say he ever was.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

I don't think Samus is guaranteed against any of them, myself.

---
“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

Guarenteed, no. Heavily favored, yes. Enough so that the odds are stacked ridiculously in her favor in comparison to the 50/50 split of Cloud/Link.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

The odds are in her favor, yes. But she doesn't have a commanding lead over the rest of them. I think a case could very well be made for Mario, Crono, and Mega Man as why they could potentially beat Samus. Choosing either four out of that group doesn't seem "insane" to me. When you look at it and consider that there very well could be four potential winners is better than choosing between the same two who are up in the air in each year.


I just think the mindset that Samus is the obvious choice for a champion-less bracket is crazy. She isn't that favored over the rest of them, especially someone such as Crono who's more than capable of giving her a great match.

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“Thou hast lost thy friend before thine very eyes; there art no words to comfort thee.”

I agree that four potential champs is better than two... but the fact of the matter is that we lose out main draw to double the number of potential champs and our doubled up number is simply far too imbalanced to consider it strictly superior to a coin-flip.

All comparisons to 2k3 Link
Samus at her best: 42.36
Samus at her worst: 37.94
Mario at his best: 38.18
Mario at his worst: 37.28%
MM at his best: 42.91%
MM at his worst: 35.99%
Crono at his best: 39.87%
Crono at his worst: 37.43%

MM is an equal match to Samus on their best days, MM's best days were 2k2 and Samus' were 2k4, not to mention at her worst she faced up directly against none other than Link. Not fair to her, but if we erase that match from her and MM's match against Link from him his worst is still 38.60% which doesn't beat her worst record under that situation. Either way you look at it, Samus has been going upwards in that last couple of years while MM has been declining. Neither were too significant, but enough to think about. Neither of the other have ever two surpassed 40% on 2k4 Link. Even with Crono always rising (seemingly, at least) he still needs a bigger boost in one year than he's gotten in the last two.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?

Funny how so many more people in here seem to be in favor of champ-less brackets now then when the issue was actually brought up by ceej.
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But my silent fears have gripped me, long before I reach the phone, long before my tongue has tripped me. Must I always be alone?