Yeah; as soon as he posted the nominations page, I can see CJay saying "Oh, ****" to himself about the potential Knuckles/Liquid match. Heh.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

On purpose... no, he'd never do that... >_>
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

CJay always puts up these same few things as set-ups. It's like he doesn't believe in giving some things up.
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The Xbox has two modes: Off and Halo. Sony has everything else. ~UltimateralizerX

Yeah, I bet he was kicking himself for banning Knux from this contest.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving

no love 4 Ceej here?

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_.-~'42'~-._
--'nuff said--

Doubtful. Knux just doesn't belong, and there's plenty of time for a Knux vs Solid Snake match in the summer.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

But the beauty is we get to see how they legitimately compare. It is sad that every one of the tier one characters has to face tier 0 himself, but barring the poorly conceived notion that Sephiroth causes statistical anomalies in all of his matches (it's just some of them) we do get a very clear picture of how so many of these characters stand.

that is a very true point, Chichiri. i hadn't really thought about that. unfortunately, the down side is that aside from the Ruin division Final, we have a very boring final week of this contest; i.e. a very boring Elite 8 and Final 4.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

I'm surprised he didn't have Lavos facing Bowser in the second round. Mario vs. Crono, villain style.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving

Because Bowser would win that, and Crono is supposed to beat Mario from now on.
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The Xbox has two modes: Off and Halo. Sony has everything else. ~UltimateralizerX

Anyone want to hazard guesses on what % of the overall brackets will Sephiroth winning? Virtually certain that we'll see a new record, but just how high can it really go...

I'm guessing it will be in the 60's. 65%, say.
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

75% or better.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving

cn, I sent you an e-mail asking if you could archive these topics again, but it got delayed.
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The Xbox has two modes: Off and Halo. Sony has everything else. ~UltimateralizerX

Seph should have more than 3/4ths of the brackets going his way. People learn from Contest to Contest, and people know how strong Seph is.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Moltar Fact 17: Moltar is on the team ???????????? for Trivia.

59%'s my guess.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Anyone with a brain can see that Sephiroth is going to win this thing. I'll say at least 75% have a brain, though that doesn't mean they use it.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving

I dont see how we can legitimately compare bowser and ganon through shared opponents. They've never shared a common opponent, and even pathing through those that beat them, i dont see where it interlocks in a definitive manner.
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_.-~'42'~-._
--'nuff said--

"Because Bowser would win that, and Crono is supposed to beat Mario from now on"

Not after the next Mario game is released. They've been working on it so long that I'd be highly tempted to pick Mario for a summer contest victory in the year after its release. With the effort put into it I just can't see it disappointing.

"Anyone want to hazard guesses on what % of the overall brackets will Sephiroth winning?"

I don't think it'll break Link's 2k3 %, actually. We have no reson to believe Seph will lose this, but we also had no reason to believe Link would lose 2k3. The people who are either contest inept or looking for an upset special will always out number those who are looking for the sure thing.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

"I dont see how we can legitimately compare bowser and ganon through shared opponents."

There is no other possible way to compare them. If one is legitimately stronger than the other (for now we assume that Ganon clearly is stronger) then the SFF in the match would skew the results to make the gap look even larger than it really is. By comparing with a common opponent we can eliminate all SFF and get an accurate estimation of where they stand in relation to eachother.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

I know that! I understand that it works in theory, but i just looked at all of ganons prior matches and all of bowsers prior matches, and some of the matches of the opponents of bowser and ganon, and i dont see where the connection can be made *in this case*, though I do know that works in theory.

Such as: (example)

Tidus gets 40% against mario
Auron gets 35% against mario

tidus is therefore better than auron.


bu *in this case* I'm not seeing where the connection is made to prove ganons superiority.



Tidus 49.32% 57078
Ganondorf 50.68% 58660
TOTAL VOTES 115738

Ganondorf 49.7% 54529
Magus 50.3% 55179
TOTAL VOTES 109708




Ganondorf 57.16% 50045
Alucard 42.84% 37512
TOTAL VOTES 87557

Link 87.9% 77295
Ganondorf 12.1% 10640
TOTAL VOTES 87935





Bowser 75.07% 74164
Ness 24.93% 24627
TOTAL VOTES 98791

Bowser 56.34% 55510
Yoshi 43.66% 43021
TOTAL VOTES 98531

Cloud Strife 70.03% 77991
Bowser 29.97% 33381
TOTAL VOTES 111372




Bowser 82.99% 61731
Guybrush Threepwood 17.01% 12652
TOTAL VOTES 74383

Bowser 29.35% 23302
Mario 70.65% 56098
TOTAL VOTES 79400
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_.-~'42'~-._
--'nuff said--

bu *in this case* I'm not seeing where the connection is made to prove ganons superiority.

Ganondorf indirectly through Magus-Link is stronger than Bowser straight up against Cloud.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving

It's nice that we have some female characters in the contest, though. Kuja and Mithos nicely represent an area that I thought would be lacking.

No. I refuse to have Kuja foisted upon my gender.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

so you're saying ganon==magus through the close match and magus got a higher percentage? I guess i can accept that, though there is some overlapping nintendo fanbase in the magus//link match and even in the ganon/magus match.


Link 65.07% 72188
Magus 34.93% 38747
TOTAL VOTES 110935

so you interchange magus with ganon right?

and then assume that link == or >= cloud?

That works but I'd say its still practically tied.

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_.-~'42'~-._
--'nuff said--

Let's go back to talking about Ridley/Diablo.

The thing from Metroid will be flattened in the first round.

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."

DISAGREE'D
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The Xbox has two modes: Off and Halo. Sony has everything else. ~UltimateralizerX

Blargh. Ridley vs. Diablo is a battle of who's the more overestimated.

You have it all wrong, though. Ridley will easily take care of Diablo en route to a final four appearance.

---
As we struggle with the Great Poison, something stirs at the edges of our vision. It is the Hatchling Samus...

so you're saying ganon==magus through the close match and magus got a higher percentage? I guess i can accept that, though there is some overlapping nintendo fanbase in the magus//link match and even in the ganon/magus match.

There's at least a small overlap in fanbase in all of the matches. For the most part it's ignored since it's so small. It's only for large cases(known as SFF) that we adjust the stats.

Link 65.07% 72188
Magus 34.93% 38747
TOTAL VOTES 110935

so you interchange magus with ganon right?

and then assume that link == or >= cloud?

That works but I'd say its still practically tied.

Magus vs Ganondorf and Magus vs Link are used to find the theoretical amount Ganondorf would get against Link if there was no SFF. Bowser vs Cloud and Cloud vs Link are used to find the theoretical amount Bowser would get against Link. Those two numbers can be compared to determine who is stronger.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: swirldude | Posted: 4/12/2005 4:35:13 PM | Message Detail
cn, I sent you an e-mail asking if you could archive these topics again, but it got delayed.

Oh, my sincere apologies. I haven't really checked that e-mail in a looong time...it got really spam infested. I'll change the e-mail address in my profile.

As for these topics--well, it took me a fair bit of time to do that. And it didn't seem worth it; I don't think anyone really used the archives. I feel these topics are worth saving--I feel a sense of loss when they go unarchived--but unfortunately I couldn't justify taking out the time to do so.

I tried writing a script to archive them a while back, but you can only see this board if you're logged in, and I don't know how to log in with Apache (server).
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In America, men flirt with women. In Shinra Midgar, Don Corneo flirts with YOU!

Ridley >or= Diablo >or= Kefka >or= M. Bison. Fun division.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Kefka will beat Ridley. Book it.
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BtT: 3:43.45 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
Or, the Katamari thing. It's like getting high, withought the death part. - Link the Midgit

No. I refuse to have Kuja foisted upon my gender.

Kuja is awesome, smitelf. Stop trying to deny it. =)
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Vexilla regis prodeunt Inferni. ~ Dante Alighieri

I feel slightly uneasy when I have the same run (Ridley to the final four) as Heroic Mario in this tournament. ;)
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Carpe Diem, or so some may say. I don't really know.

There's no way that Kefka takes his division. I'd pick Kuja over Ganondorf before taking Kefka.
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"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
- Darth Vader

Kefka will be down and out against Luca. Yes, you read that right.

In accordance to the prophecy, Dweebenheimer!
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Yes, this is MasterMage119.

there's no way I'd take Ridley or Albedo or Wesker or Bison over DK (who was pretty close to Kefka last year). so i guess to me, it really is a matter of how much potential Diablo really has. Diablo is the wild card here.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

What about Tails? He's closer to Kefka than DK is.
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Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.

Tag for GREAT justice!
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (125 Signs!)

i have a hard time comparing characters to Tails unbiasedly because he is one of my top three most hated characters of all-time. that's why i'd rather use DK as a measuring stick. and DK was only slightly higher than Tails anyways.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

The stats on sc2k4.com don't adjust for Vivi-Sephiroth SFF. DK is actually quite a bit higher than Tails.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving

well fine. i wouldn't take Albedo, Wesker, Bison, or Ridley over Hayabusa or Jill either.

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VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!

Agreed on the sentiment that the only thing stopping Kefka from taking the division is the undeterminable strength of Diablo.
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Not to put too fine a point on it, Say I'm the only bee in your bonnet. Make a little birdhouse in your soul.

Ridley vs Kefka determines the winner of the division.
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"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
- Darth Vader

... That should read Ridley vs Diablo.
---
"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
- Darth Vader

Actually, Kefka vs Ridley/Diablo determins winner. Hell, Ridley/Diablo may end up determining the winner.
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The Xbox has two modes: Off and Halo. Sony has everything else. ~UltimateralizerX

Kuja is awesome, smitelf. Stop trying to deny it. =)

I don’t think I can properly articulate just how much I despise Kuja. Kuja is farther from awesomeness than George W. Bush.

Agreed on the sentiment that the only thing stopping Kefka from taking the division is the undeterminable strength of Diablo.

Precisely. At least the other characters who matter in that division have *some* kind of measuring stick with which we can gauge them; since the “heroes” of their series have been in previous contests, the only question is where they rank with respect to the heroes. Diablo is completely new game from a popular series and will, therefore, be overestimated by some and underestimated by Heroic Ma – I mean, others.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

so you're saying ganon==magus through the close match and magus got a higher percentage?

Kind of, but not exactly. They're using extrapolated standings to compare the characters. Ganon got 49.7% against Magus and Magus got 34.93% against Link, so the theoretical amount Ganon would get against Link is (49.7 * 34.93)/50 = 34.72%. Bowser got 29.97 against Cloud and Link got 48.39 (since we've been using 2003 numbers) against Cloud. Thus Bowser is estimated to get (29.97/48.39) * 50 = 30.97 against Link in 2003. There's a more detailed explanation at sc2k4.com.

Of course, I wouldn't consider Ganon a lock to win if he faced Bowser, that's just what the numbers say.
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Supporting CATS and Ultros in the Spring Contest

No one's answered my question yet:

Does Mithos have even the slightest chance of upsetting Kefka? Kefka is weak, ToS is quite popular...it's a long shot, but I think there may be a slim possiblity of it happening.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Agreed on the sentiment that the only thing stopping Kefka from taking the division is the undeterminable strength of Diablo.

And, you know, that Ridley is more than capable of beating Kefka.

---
As we struggle with the Great Poison, something stirs at the edges of our vision. It is the Hatchling Samus...

Does Mithos have even the slightest chance of upsetting Kefka? Kefka is weak, ToS is quite popular...it's a long shot, but I think there may be a slim possiblity of it happening

I would die from laughter if it happened, but don't bet on it.
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"It feels as though the raindrops are blessing our victory." - Kuja
"I never trust a Frenchman." - Revolver Ocelot

Excellent choice of sig-changing Leon.
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"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
- Darth Vader