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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 107
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:10:32 PM | Message Detail
BRACKEEEEEEEET!!

*Stats websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/extrapolated.php

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k2_extrapolated.htm

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k3_extrapolated.htm

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/excel/spc2k4_extrapolated.htm

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/excel/spc2k4_extrapolated_sff.htm

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k4_extrapolated.htm

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k4.com/excel/sc2k4_extrapolated_sff.htm

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

*Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm

Creativename's Links Page:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

*Miscellaneous*

MMXcalibur's Prophet Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updator:
http://sc2k4.com/update.php (add "?pollid=[4-digit poll number]" at the end of url to look at charts from past polls)

Summer 2002 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15&page=1
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15&page=2

Summer 2003 Match Pictures:
www.angelfire.com/games5/heroicmario0/contestpictures.htm

Spring 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17&page=1
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17&page=2
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=17&page=3

Summer 2004 Match Pictures:
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18&page=1
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18&page=2
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18&page=3

!yawA tsoP
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh!" -Magus Zeal
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:11:04 PM | Message Detail
Diablo > All. That is it.
---
/(>'-')>[|||]=======>
Nominate Meta Knight (Kirby Series) for Summer Contest!
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:11:08 PM | Message Detail
BRACCCKKETTTTTT

---
~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:11:17 PM | Message Detail
Tag.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:12:09 PM | Message Detail
BRACCCKKETTTTTT!
---
"My name is Guybrush Threepwood. Prepare to die!"
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:13:16 PM | Message Detail
GO RIDLEY!

---
As we struggle with the Great Poison, something stirs at the edges of our vision. It is the Hatchling Samus...
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:14:04 PM | Message Detail
Bracket. *has a sore throat*

Master Hand > most sexy picks in ages.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Fiop | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:14:14 PM | Message Detail
Bracket!

But no Kerrigan....I even recruited about 3 other people to nominate Kerrigan but alas, no avail.

I wish I could talk to CJayC....I could argue her being a villain.
---
"To sit at home, read one's favorite paper, and scoff at the men who do things is easy, but markedly ineffective" --Theodore Roosevelt
From: Oktoberfest | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:14:23 PM | Message Detail
you're working too hard
---
grrrrrr
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:14:48 PM | Message Detail
Diablo is going to beat Kefka. That is all.
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Nominate Christian for SC2K5!
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:14:58 PM | Message Detail
GO KUJA!
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: Ludwig Von 2 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:15:27 PM | Message Detail
yippee! Kuja.
---
My luck works best when things are... random. Mat Cauthon from The Dragon Reborn
From: Just Some Person | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:16:40 PM | Message Detail
Looks as if all the #1 seeds will take their divisions. By the books, it seems.

---
"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."
From: cyko | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:23:45 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: cyko | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:26:42 PM | Message Detail
GO MASTER HAND!!

but, hey, at least now we can be confident that the Summer Contest will start on July 1st.

---
VOTE FOR ULTROS!!! G'FHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Trivia XIV: MEATWADD SUCKS!!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:27:26 PM | Message Detail
Kefka isn't taking his division.

---
As we struggle with the Great Poison, something stirs at the edges of our vision. It is the Hatchling Samus...
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:28:54 PM | Message Detail
Ridley over Kefka
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Where there is light... there is darkness! Sword of the Dark Moon!
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia
From: Nightmare 45 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:30:35 PM | Message Detail
Wesker over Kefka. Oh yeah, I went there.
---
Not changing sig until I get more Love Hina (Started 12/22/04)
The Red9, the gun of real men.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:36:52 PM | Message Detail
You went too far then.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:37:18 PM | Message Detail
This coming from the person talking Master Hand over Kuja.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:39:54 PM | Message Detail
Not like it's unreasonable.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:41:19 PM | Message Detail
Neither is Wesker over Kefka.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:41:38 PM | Message Detail
Diablo is so taking the division.
From: Fiop | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:43:14 PM | Message Detail
Bowser *might* lose to either Ocelot or Wily...
---
"To sit at home, read one's favorite paper, and scoff at the men who do things is easy, but markedly ineffective" --Theodore Roosevelt
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:43:54 PM | Message Detail
There's absolutely no way Bowser loses to Wily. Ocelot is a possibility, though a slim one.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:44:55 PM | Message Detail
Neverminding the fact Jill would have lost to Kefka last year if stats mean anything?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:45:33 PM | Message Detail
Assuming nothing went wrong in Sora-Hayabusa, you mean, which isn't out of the question considering how big of a dive Jill took.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:45:35 PM | Message Detail
Mark my words, Revolver is no Liquid in terms of strength. Bowser beats Revolver.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: JonthePenguin | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:46:12 PM | Message Detail
*tag*

---
Nominate Walter from Castlevania: Lament of Innocence for Spring Contest 2005!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19412943
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:48:44 PM | Message Detail
Jill had been slowly declining each year, too. In 2k2, she beat Kirby and Bomberman. In 2k3, --according to stats-- she'd lose to Kirby. In 2k4, --according to stats-- she'd lose to Kirby and Bomberman. Her seed has dropped each year as well, too; while I do think Jill is a tad bit under-rated, it's not enough. Plus, even if she was, I still don't see Wesker bein' stronger than her, much less noticably enough.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 9:55:02 PM | Message Detail
But her drop from 2003 to 2004 was a bit too large for me to think something didn't go wrong.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 10:02:27 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 10:03:41 PM | Message Detail
Perhaps the match being rematched? That's all I know to say, seeing as how her entire division is basically unscathed with anamolies (outside of Samus's first two matches, ahem). Even then, on that first match, Ryu was on track to beat Jill worse than he did the second day.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 10:05:58 PM | Message Detail
No, I'm not talking about Ryu-Jill being off. I'm talking about Ryu-Sora being off.
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SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 10:09:29 PM | Message Detail
My bad; I misread. Well, what went wrong there other than the board's pics? Sora still did respectable against Samus afterwards...so, let's --look at the stats-- and see who Ryu H. is nearby:

Kefka
Bomberman
Viewtiful Joe
Scorpion
Ness

Is it that hard to believe Ryu H. fits somewhere in that range?
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 4/11/2005 10:10:07 PM | Message Detail
If it didn't involve dragging Jill way down with him, no.
---
SC2K5 Nominations: Squall Leonhart, Tidus, Zidane, Serge, Musashi, Tifa Lockheart, Leon Kennedy, Kerrigan, Revolver Ocelot, Lloyd Irving
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 10:16:36 PM | Message Detail
He beat Jill though (twice, unofficially), so there goes that...unless you think Jill is noticably less transitive than most characters.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/11/2005 11:33:07 PM | Message Detail
Just to finish off a point before I go to bed, let's compare Jill to the next five characters if you go up:

Tommy Vercetti
Luigi
KOS-MOS
Donkey Kong
Tails

Last year, Jill barely did better against Squall than Luigi by a marginal amount, and you sounded like you would give room to some drop for Jill (just not as much as our stats show). Considering how close DK is supposed to be to Luigi (closer than our stats show if DK was stable from 2k3 to 2k4) and how debated DK/Tails matches can get sometimes, we can also assume they're closely packed. 2k3's TV/DK match confirms them being close-n-compact without ever even having to glance at KOS-MOS's matches (though if the guesses shared by me and HM are worth anything, Lloyd will snugly fit between KOS-MOS and Donkey Kong)...

...then from Tails, there's Kefka...

...Jill didn't HAVE to take a big drop to get in the next range of five characters there. Nothing unusual had to happen; much like Crono seems to gain in seed and a lil' strength every year, Jill drops in seed and a lil' strength every year it looks like...though RE4's newfound popularity may bring her up a lil' next year (if she's not replaced by Leon) like how it's expected MGS3 will bring Solid up a lil'.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Wanglicious | Posted: 4/11/2005 11:49:43 PM | Message Detail
I don't see why Wily doesn't have a chance against Bowser. Let's be honest, just look at Bowser's matches. He's always facing Nintendo. Wily's untested.

As for that Kefka bracket: I've got Bison over Kefka. That's right, Bison. My only worry is Diablo VS Bison in that match now...

---
Treeplane: "SOMEONE GET THIS PIRATE OFF ME! I HAVE TO GO LOVE MARIO! I NEED IT!" - PoG's Board 8 fic.
From: Heroic Hyatt | Posted: 4/12/2005 4:06:31 AM | Message Detail
Ok. I want to set the record straight about Diablo v. Ridley.


Diablo has no chance.


I've played a lot of D2 and D2X and I can tell you that most people who play those games don't give a flying flackarack about the characters. I'm personally surprised that Diablo even got in at all.

Ridley could potentially win his division, I haven't even decided who to pick as the division winner, him or lettuce boy.

Diablo is being clearly overestimated here.
From: Forceful Dragon | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:13:22 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man 57.19% 50116
Solid Snake 42.81% 37517
TOTAL VOTES 87633

so yes, if Wily is to Megaman as Ocelot is to Solid Snake...Wily will win.


---
_.-~'42'~-._
--'nuff said--
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:13:59 AM | Message Detail
Continuing the Wily/Ocelot discussion from the last topic...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Wily's starred in a new Mega Man game (sans the Battle Network titles) in the last decade. He's not in people's minds, whereas Ocelot is. We all saw the Zero vs. Proto Man demolition. It leads me to believe that old school Mega Man just can't cut it.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:23:29 AM | Message Detail
Can't cut it against new-school Mega Man, anyways. However, I have faith that Dr. Wily is stronger than Protoman and that Protoman got noticeable SFF. Regardless, I still take Revolver over Wily without much more thought to it than anger, heh.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:26:46 AM | Message Detail
Slightly hard but Ocelot has the upper hand, I think.

Willy hasn't starred in REAL games for years (MM:AC doesn't count because it only drove hardcore gamers to the stores).
---
Nominate Lezard Valeth, Ghaleon, Albedo Piasora, Luca Blight, Fou-Lu, Ridley, Mewtwo and Nicolai Conrad for SpC2K5
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:29:53 AM | Message Detail
I may not know what i'm talking about b/c i'm not a mega man fan so i don't know the character very well, but does sigma really not stand a chance against bowser?
---
Mario Sunshine-120 Shines || BtT 3:34.97 || HRC 37,592.3 ||
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:30:38 AM | Message Detail
Sigma has 0% Chance against Bowser

---
~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:31:36 AM | Message Detail
Wrong, Sigma has 0.000000001 chances of winning.
---
Nominate Lezard Valeth, Ghaleon, Albedo Piasora, Luca Blight, Fou-Lu, Ridley, Mewtwo and Nicolai Conrad for SpC2K5
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:32:45 AM | Message Detail
*tag*
---
My nominations -- Bowser, Dr. Wily, Dr. Robotnik, M. Bison, Akuma, Ramirez, Piastol, Jedah, Solidus Snake[traded], Tron Bonne
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:32:50 AM | Message Detail
Right here are the most painful matches to me..

Ridley vs. Diablo ... The winner of the two vs. Kefka

Ocelot vs. wily..

---
~ExquisiteSamurai~
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/12/2005 9:32:53 AM | Message Detail
I'll give Sigma 1% chance against Bowser, simply because it amazes me about how popular Zero is; almost beating Sonic is nothing to laugh at, and potentially gettin' rSFF against Mega Man is impressive too. Now, Bowser'll be out of Sigma's league, but Sigma should roll over and die either.
---
Serious Reminder: Vote for Dr. Wily in 2k5
Meanwhile, sit back and enjoy the contest-hype.
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