.. or maybe Link is just stronger than last year. He overperformed against CATS. I wonder what he'll get on Crono/Mario.
---
"...for extremely well thought out and irrrefutable reasons that the poster below me will provide." ~Aeon Azuran
Wouldn't the hero villain factor just be a form of SFF, because they would have to be in the same game to have the HVF?
I
don't know about you, but I would gladly give up my bracket to see Link
hit 81% against Cloud, just to see how the board would react.
Well I want Link to win against Cloud, but I want it to be the first actually interesting final.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
Would HVF apply to Crono/Magus? Magus is sort of a villain...
---
BtT: 3:57.10 | HRC: 50,053.8 ft OV aaaargh
Crash.
There's no way of knowing whether or not Link is stronger until he
actually goes up against someone who isn't absolute fodder or within
his same fanbase.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
The Hero Villain Factor will have a better representation of these statistics we have seen in Donkey Kong/Mario
I
doubt that much of DK's popularity comes from the original Donkey Kong,
most probably comes from DKC and all the side games DK's been in, like
Mario Kart, Mario Party, Smash Bros, etc.
Heroic Mario: In other words, you're hoping that his is a joke and that Mega Man kicks Link's ass?
Mega Man, you're next! =P
---
"...for extremely well thought out and irrrefutable reasons that the poster below me will provide." ~Aeon Azuran
Indeed. Mega Man will be kicking some Hylian ass come the final four. ;)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
I would think the HVF COULD apply in Magus/Crono, but would be more
likely seen in a Magus/Frog match-up. Again, I am not positive that the
HVF will always favor the hero, however I have a strong suspicion that
it would. There are very few villains who garner the name recognition
of their counterpart protragonist, but if there was to ever be a
reverse HVF, I think a Magus/Frog match-up would be just that. Also, I
think Zero/Mega Man could have a slight HVF to it, though I would agree
SFF would make more sense. To me though, SFF should be across series
(or in the case of final fantasys and Mega Man to MMX merely across
sequentials). Link/Ganondorf, Bowser/Mario, Cloud/Sephiroth,
Luigi/Mario, etc... are far more specific than just the same fanbase;
they are the same game. In most cases of same game you have the HVF.
There are some we have discussed such as Tidus/Zuron, Vivi/Zidane,
Luigi/Mario, etc... that merely pit protagonists against eachothers.
This obviously would not follow a HVF, but I also do not think a SFF
would apply. This unnamed factor (I am open to suggestions) would
probably also apply to Zero/MegaMan(X), Ryu/Ken, Luigi/Yoshi, etc...
and probably Crono/Magus.
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
This is probably the only match where the so called HVF would be a huge
factor. I don't see it as much in Crono/Magus or Mario/Bowser. Or
anyone else in the contest as a matter of fact. SFF is one thing, but
HVF is just describing the relationship between the characters. Ganon
hasn't been developed enough to break the "bad guy from Zelda" persona.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
Personally, I just think the SFF as we treat it is far too broad. We
have spent 10s of thousands of posts discussing statistics, so I would
think it is within the scope of this topic to try and break this
contest down into its most simplicest elements. As such, I think we can
have subdivisions of SFF. One would apply within a company sense
(Nintendo, Square). Another *could* be from a genre sense (RPG, FPS,
Fighting). Another would be the hero/villain sense. And a fourth (that
comes to my mind) would be from an inter-game sense (but not with a
hero/villain set-up). The more variables we can extract from the
tournaments results, the better we are able to predict each character's
"vaccuum" strength, which idealistically leaves us with a variable-free
1-64 ranking of the given tournament.
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
therealmmn: In my opinion, we also saw it in DK/Mario two years ago,
and in my opinion we will be seeing it for certain in three days when
Bowser meets Mario. Liquid/Solid Snake is another match-up that, I
believe, would have resulted in significantly-skewed statistics. There
are more than likely other matches lurking out there (Wario/Mario?
He'll never make it back though), and I think these types of matches
will result in a significant adjustment to our variable-free standings;
much more so than an Auron/Sephiroth or Squall/Cloud match will result
in.
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
And for entertainment/making you becoming stupider by viewing it purposes:
Uhhh.....LINK!!!But
Cloud will beat them both just like he did um LAST YEAR!Seriously Sephy
coudnt beat Cloud last year, he cant this year. He hasnt improved in
any popularity since the last contest. It'll be just like last year.
Link released Wind waker right around the contest's end so he
benefitted from the hype...and still lost. Personally I dont think
either can upset Cloud. If I had to pick some1 to take down Cloud, it
woul have to be Samus. She released Metroid Prime, Metroid Fushion,
Metroid Zero Mission, and there is hype already about Metroid Prime 2:
Echos. She has done the most during the time of SC2K2 and this year.
The BIG THREE have in total released 2 games. Just watch, once Megaman
debuts in Battle Network 5, X8(assuming its in the class of X4 and X3
and not like X7), MegamanZero 4, and Megaman 9....The new order will be
Samus Megaman and Link(with Zelda 2005) as the top tier. Samus and
Megaman will be the highest and dominate the next 2 years. Cloud and
Seph will join Mario in tier 2. if they wanna keep strong, they need a
new game. FF7 is one of the best there is and KH was a great boost, but
they need more to dominate fr years to come. Samus and Megaman are
seriously gona threaten their top 3 positons. I still say Cloud THIS
year, but next year Link's new game and Samus's new game will make them
favorites, replacing Seph. and MM will take Cloud's spot if he releases
all 4 games I said. This year will be Cloud's last aura until MM and
Samus rplace FF7 on top with Link!!!!!
That was somebody
answering the question on whether they Link or Sephiroth would win if
they went up against each other this year.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
Oh, of course there are different kinds of SFF. I don't even try to
label it as most of them should be common sense. You can't label EVERY
variable that occurs in this contest and I don't even try. I don't
think it will stop until the XRs perfectly predict a contest. I just
nod my head and smile.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
I really need to learn how to put things in bold and italics...
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
Link will win next year with ease. This year is a tossup between Link and Cloud.
---
"...for extremely well thought out and irrrefutable reasons that the poster below me will provide." ~Aeon Azuran
This year is a tossup between Link and Cloud.
...and Mega Man. <<
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
Mario/DK was not hero/villain. As said before, most of DK's popularity
come from the DKC series. It simply comes down to people who like DK
like Mario more. That's SFF. DK just happens to be the villain in the
first game. That's not what people base their voting on though.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
I really need to learn how to put things in bold and italics...
To italicize, use < i > word < / i > and take out the spaces. To bold, use a "b" instead of an 'i."
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
But really, most would suspect this is a contest between Link and Cloud
but someone else stepping up to the challenge wouldn't be surprising at
all.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
...Outside of Tanner, and barring something else ridiculous, is there
anyone Alucard has a chance of being better than in the X-St.?
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
Mario/Donkey Kong was anything but a case of Hero vs. Villain. Very few
people still see these two as enemies like they were back in the days
of Donkey Kong. The vast, vast majority of Donkey Kong's popularity
comes from the Donkey Kong Country series and other spinoff titles.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
Thanks Mumei =)
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
Well phooey. I still see Donkey Kong as Mario's enemy, but I grew up on
Nintendo. And yes, I also see Bowser as Mario's enemy... but definitely
not Smithy.
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
Most people grew up on Nintendo, and still play it today but given how
far Donkey Kong has come since the early 80's I wouldn't figure most
people thinking back to remember that he was a villain of Mario. In
fact, you could also go out and say Mario was a villain in Donkey Kong
Jr.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
Thanks Mumei =)
You're welcome
That takes too long XD.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
HM: I could do that, and then I could also proclaim we have seen the first case of reverse HVF =)
---
I'm a Czar! Whee!
...Outside of Tanner, and barring something else ridiculous, is
there anyone Alucard has a chance of being better than in the X-St.?
Guybrush.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192
^^ I'm not saying people don't know. But do you think they would base
their VOTING on that fact? I think not. And Nintendo explicitly said
back in '93 that they did not want DK to stay in the villain image and
that people would see the true side of DK in the near future. I think
DK has evolved enough from there to hold his own. But he still falls
under the Mario character cast, which is why I would list it as SFF.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
Check these numbers out from the first round...
Prediction percentage-wise
1 Link 98.79%
2 Mario 98.28%
1 Mega Man 97.47%
2 Solid Snake 97.27%
1 Cloud Strife 97.97%
2 Sephiroth 97.37%
1 Sonic 97.47%
So...
7 of the the top 8 seeds are predicted at a minimum of 97.27%. Then
Samus comes along and demolishes Lara with 81+ and yet the brackets are
made with almost 1 in 10 makers seeing Lara a chance to upset.
2 Samus Aran 91.74%
To
put this in perspective, the last of the Noble Nine, Crono, in his 3rd
seed losing some confidence still has almost a 2% prediction confidence
in him.
3 Crono 93.43%
Even with the fact that
some people are going for the perfect loss bracket and maybe some joke
brackets this is still a ridculously low percentage. If the
average/casual bracket maker has less confidence and yet she is still
able to take the highest percentile win of the 1st round, this bodes
great things for her in future rounds. After her first round slaughter,
things can only get better. In short, I'm glad now that I have her over
Sonic in the Round of 8
...Outside of Tanner, and barring something else ridiculous, is
there anyone Alucard has a chance of being better than in the X-St.?
Laharl? Freeman? Kefka (if Knux gets hit harder than expected)?
---
The race to revitalize Figaro Desert is on! Find out how at www.rpgdl.com
Laharl could get it pretty rough, too,
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192
Do you all think Sonic vs Shadow would result in this big as SFF or what?
---
SC2k4 Winner: Link
Status: 29/33 Next Pick: Yoshi (This current match is that sad. I'm completely skipping it.)
I don't see Bowser performing this badly. Unlike the Dorf one, Bowser
has the benefit of being a playable character in some games (Mario RPG,
Mario Golf,Tennis, Party, and the Smash Bros. game.
Ganondorf was playable in SSBM. Better than Link, too. Of course, that doesn't mean much in the poll. XD
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
Ganondorf is playable in SSBM too, and is one of the better characters in the game.
---
Summer Contest Match 31 Link vs. Ganondorf
Status 30/33 Points: 031 Next: Luigi vs. Yoshi
I think Shadow would be DESTROYED by Sonic in a one-on-one poll.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192
Thanks, I didn't know about that. Still, Bowser does benefit from that aspect more than Ganon.
I think Shadow would be DESTROYED by Sonic in a one-on-one poll.
He probably does get most of his support from being a Sonic the Hedgehog clone... But put him against the hedgehog, and he'd be screwed ^^;.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
Sonic would probably beat him pretty bad unless people like the supposed "cooler" version that much better. Doubtful though.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
I do agree with this, despite the rankings saying that MegaMan would
win. Even with both of them, but for some reason, Crono in my mind,
seems like he'ld have an easier time.
I don't think Mega Man would have the hardest time beating both of them.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
I support the HVF as well, but in the case of Cloud/Sephiroth I found a
theory that I think best explains why it is absent. Many, many FF7 fans
actually like Sephiroth more than any other character in the game
simply because of either his appearance or his development. Hence, they
will pick him over the hero because of legitimate preference as opposed
to "liking the hero more".
---
Contest Stats: 30/32 Next Pick: Link
Today's subliminal thought is:
This year is a tossup between Link and Cloud.
...and Mega Man. <<
If you're going to include the Blue Bomber, you have to include Sephiroth and Samus.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
2nd Round: (5)Kirby
Moltar's Thoughts on: Link vs. Ganondorf
Eh, I do it every day, why not make it something special.
Ok, I do my regular routine this morning, you know, check the poll.
Dot Dot Dot
I
see Link beating Ganondorf worse than he did CATS. I'm really shocked,
and I could barely get it out of my mind most of the day. My favotite
character was getting PWNED to high hell by Link. Dammit, if Ganon
wasn't underseeded in the first place, this wouldn't happen to him. Eh,
time to get a little less biased here.
What does this mean for
Ganon? His fanbase is basically Link's fanbase, just a bit smaller.
Ganon, without Link support, is as weak as he is looking today. I
thought Ganon had his own decent set of fans, but I guess I was wrong.
So
what does this mean for other matches? Well, this match does hint at
possible SFF matches in the future. Does this mean Crono will slaughter
Magus, Mario will slaughter Bowser, etc? I'd say some stuff about how
this could also put Link's spot in the finals in cement, but this SFF
is just too crazy...
---
Tommy vs. Max - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Link vs. Ganondorf - Bracket: Link - Vote: Ganon (30/32)
If you're going to include the Blue Bomber, you have to include Sephiroth and Samus.
True.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
Hyrule Division: Round 1 - Match 34 – (5)Yoshi vs. (4)Luigi
Moltar’s Analysis
Yoshi - You think your day job’s tough? Try having Mario’s ass on you day after day for one.
Round 1 – vs. Ryo (Yoshi: 76.4% - Ryo: 23.6%)
Yoshi blows Ryo out of the water and hopefully out of the Contest scene. He now moves onto a tough Round 2 match with Luigi.
Luigi - I bet he wishes Mario would fight this battle for him.
Round 1 – vs. Pac-Man (Luigi: 67.73% - Pac-Man: 32.27%)
Luigi put up a surprise here. He wasn’t even planned to get over 60% by most people, and instead, he doubles the Pacster. Wow.
One
of the few potentially great matches in Round 2. Mario’s brother vs.
Mario’s dinosaur. Winner gets the title of the favorite Mario sidekick!
They also get a trip to the Sweet 16. So let’s get this party started.
As
soon as the brackets went up, people already started talking about it.
Who was the better liked Mario sidekick? Yoshi or Luigi? Many of the
board members went with Yoshi. I mean, Yoshi doubled Conker and put up
around 43% on Bowser last year, while Luigi almost tripled Ratchet,
before getting around 40% on Squall, Even Jill did a little better on
Squall then Weegi did. Squall and Bowser are right next to each other
in the Rankings, with Squall just a hair ahead. But Yoshi still put up
better numbers on Bowser than Luigi did on Squall. This year, Yoshi
tripled Ryo with 85% of the brackets calling it right. Luigi also did
very well, doubling Pac-Man and getting 68% of the bracket support. So
who will the bracket favorite be in this match? Most likely Yoshi. Who
is the statistical favorite? That’s a tough one, but I would go with
Yoshi.
Why do I say that? Luigi almost got 68% on Pac-Man, a
legend in gaming. With that performance, the stats have Luigi ranking
up there with Snake himself. That’s just crazy! Then again, I blame
that on Kefka’s under-peformance against Pac last year. Yes, I believe
Pac-Man got within 51% on Kefka because he over-performed in the match
while Kefka under-performed. I mean, Kefka had nothing going for him
last year, thanks to a very unrecognizable and just bad picture. Of
course, I can’t blame it all on the picture, Pac-Man was on fire that
day. But FF6’s performance in the Spring Contest showed that Kefka had
to be stronger than he let on. And he showed it this year. He got 42%
on Knuckles, performing about 8% better than he was supposed to
according to last year. See, I knew Kefka couldn’t be THAT weak. So
what am I trying to say here? Pac-Man over-performed last year, and
came back this year weaker than ever. Kefka under-performed last year,
making Pac-Man look stronger than he is, and showed his true colors
this year. Ratchet’s performance today also isn’t helping Luigi look
good. Dante is putting up 80% on him, but that could be just a little
boost in Dante’s favor, or a drop in Ratchet’s.
Whew…that’s
quite a bit to say, but hopefully I have showed you why I believe Yoshi
will win. Luigi’s strength has been completely blown out of proportion.
Pac-Man is nothing more these days than a step above fodder at
GameFAQs. Besides, Yoshi is the fan-favorite in my opinion. He should
be able to just squeak by here.
Moltar’s Bracket Says:Yoshi will win.
Moltar’s Prediction is: Yoshi 52% - Luigi 48%
---
Tommy vs. Max - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Link vs. Ganondorf - Bracket: Link - Vote: Ganon (30/32)
Ulti's Analysis
Bowser and Squall are close enough in
strength to be considered virtual equals in a hypothetical situation,
so let's do so. Afterwards, take a quick look at Bowser vs Yoshi and
Squall vs Luigi. There is a 3% difference between Yoshi and Luigi in
those two polls, which translates to roughly a 55-45 win for Yoshi in
this match. After seeing them both in action for the first time, I see
no reason to think otherwise. Yoshi had a higher prediction percentage,
more votes, and more total votes in his poll. Superstar Saga may be a
good game, but how is that supposed to vault Luigi past Yoshi? I don't
think it will.
Ulti's Bracket/Prediction - Yoshi/Yoshi with 54.99%
Cena’s Analysis
Ok,
it's Mario's little dinosaur buddy against his little green brother.
Some people believe that with Luigi's terrible showing last year,
specifically against Squall, that Yoshi should have a field day on him.
Ok, are you guys nuts? This is Luigi, we're talking about. I don't care
how cute a dinosaur can get, Luigi owns in every way possible. Ok, I
may be a Luigi fanboy, but I really don't see how Yoshi can be more
popular than a freakin' Mario brother. It boggles the mind how a green
frickin' dinosaur is more popular than the kick-ass plumber in green
who's even cooler than his squat big brother. Statistically speaking,
Yoshi wins, but we all know he shouldn't.
Cena’s Vote: Luigi
Cena’s Prediction: Yoshi with 54% (Screw you, dinosaur, screw you)
---
Tommy vs. Max - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Link vs. Ganondorf - Bracket: Link - Vote: Ganon (30/32)
I just noticed that Protoman really isn't as low as I thought he would
be. Assuming that Zero stayed the same as 2003 and that there was no
SFF present in the match, Protoman would rank inbetween Vyse and Isaac
(roughly 19% on Link).
Now,
with Mega Man vs. Zero in round 3 and even more SFF potential he'll
probably end up being lower. However, when you take away the SFF from
Mega Man vs. Zero and Zero vs. Protoman he'd probably rank close to the
top 32 or even breaking it. Not to bad if I say so myself.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
Do you all think Sonic vs Shadow would result in this big as SFF or what?
Nope.
I don't think Shadow would suffer very much SFF. I couldn't buy Shadow
getting all those votes purely on being a Sonic clone, for one thing.
More importantly, Shadow is like Sonic, but is evil and is a heckuva
lot cooler (at least in looks). I think the fanbases are quite
different.
I don't see why ANYONE would vote Ganondorf over
Link, besides that fact that Ganondorf is the villain. He's just a guy
with a ski jump on his face... I do think there's more reasons to pick
DK over Mario than Ganondorf over Link. DK has had the DKC series and
is an icon himself, and hey, my dad's favorite Mario character is DK. :P
Of course, Bowser should do better than DK...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Man, today's match is still just crazy. Nearly 88% for Link, insane.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.
SFF is a crazy thing...
---
Tommy vs. Max - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Link vs. Ganondorf - Bracket: Link - Vote: Ganon (30/32)