Jesus, 40 topics and still going strong...

Stats websites:

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm

MMXcalibur's Prophet Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

!yawA tsoP
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

*sets up base*
---
Mega Man vs. E. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. B-man - Bracket: Squall - Vote: B-man (18/19)

Heh, you ruined the other guy's dreams....

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He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

tag.
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...and it begins! Next tough match: Ness vs. JAK

XD
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Go Ness!

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 18/19, Picked: Squall, Voted: Squall
VOTE NESS!

*tags* for later perusing.
---
Current Pick: Squall; Current Vote: Squall; Points: 19/19
JAK CANNOT GRASP THE TRUE NATURE OF NESS' ATTACK!

A bit too early... I say you make them at 450.

From: The Wise Tonberry | Posted: 8/21/2004 12:58:05 AM | Message Detail
Sorry Ulti, I hope you don't mind. The previous one passed up 400 posts, so I couldn't resist. Call it a lifelong dream of mine to make one of these topics. =P

That's nice. We already have a couple of backup people, and you preemtively making a topic without being one of them ensures that you never will be.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

From: thundersheep | Posted: 8/21/2004 1:18:39 AM | Message Detail
A bit too early... I say you make them at 450.

Two problems with that. One, these topics fill up fast during the contest, and two, some idiot will try to make the topic if I wait that long.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Tagged for future reference.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Apparently that still happens =P
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

so what say you contest discussion regulars.... Jak or Ness? I don't want a ten paragraph essay... just who wins?
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SC2k4 Winner: Sephiroth
Status: 20/20 Next Pick: Jak

Yeah, from people who obviously know better. Oh, well.

And I say Ness.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Ness all the way.

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 18/19, Picked: Squall, Voted: Squall
VOTE NESS!

Ness.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

This is my first post in one of these...but I say Ness will win
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Summer 2004 Score: 19/19 (I'm #14!)
Today I choose.... Squall over Bomberman (I'm voting for Bomberman, cuz i choose to)

Sheesh, Ulti, don't make such a big deal out of it. I'm sorry if I made you mad or anything. I was just making the topic cause the other one was dead. ><

Not like it matters who makes them anyway, they're all the same. Whether i'm a so called back up or not, I don't really care. Its just hard to find some decent, relevant discussion on this board with all the nonsense and trolls. And if you want to get angry about who makes a topic with relevant information, then, as they say in Pre-School, poo on you.

so what say you contest discussion regulars.... Jak or Ness? I don't want a ten paragraph essay... just who wins?

Jak, I just think he's the safer pick. I wont go into detail at this point.
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Sc2k4: 19 of 20
Next Match: Jak vs. Ness (The "big" Match)

Nice, nice.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Didn't expect Ness to be doing so poorly this early on, considering that I've never heard of Jax before this.
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www.rpgdl.com See your favorite RPG heroes and villains fight it out. Match of the week:Melfice vs Rashidi, and The DL Olympics!

This is exceeding my expectations of Ness O_o.
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

From starmen.net

"In the GameFAQs battle between Ness and Jak that began 13 minutes ago, Ness is leading by several 200 votes. Please vote for him at GameFAQs now! I believe this will be Ness's first victory in the three years that they have had this contest!"

Well, they certainly didnt waste any time, now did they?

Yay for an extra 100 Ness votes from starmen's scant amount of visitors! Its like starcraft rallying votes, but blindfolded and with a broken kneecap!
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2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

but they mentioned he is leading by several 200 votes! He will get masses of support there...
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SC2k4 Score: 18/20 Todays Pick: Ness over Jak
Losers who won: Tidus, Knuckles

Exactly - not just 200 votes, but SEVERAL 200 votes.
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2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

It's great to be an EB fan, and to have supported Ness, and prove so many people wrong.

My creds as an EarthBound fan:

-Been playing EB since 1994
-The only EB trick published in Nintendo Power was submitted by yours truly
-Maxed out my characters, got their optimal equipment
-Did a SCC with Ness
-Beat EarthBound in one sitting

Yes, you could say I'm a supporter of Ness and EB in this contest. :)

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 19/20, Picked: Ness, Voted: Ness
NESS ROCKS

Well, with the annual call-ins to NoA that Starmen.net has conducted the past two years (and apparently is now well known by the company because of them, though that isn't to say in a good way), I expect a massive number of votes in Ness' favor by those obviously dedicated site regulars. Of course, by "massive" I mean around fifty to a hundred. Guess we could always hope for some more of those several 200 votes!

Oh, and I chose Ness.
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FACT: Shins are nothing more than tools for finding things in the dark.
*Certified Topic Killer*

We need this. Now.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Bastards.. you gypped me of the 500. No one was posting till after 495, dammit!
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Link, Alucard, Magus, Crono, Mario, Knuckles, Kefka, Cloud, Sonic...
And Frog.

Jak needs something to arrive in the same way that Starcraft had carriers arrive. And quickly.
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Jon Thomson - today: Jak, tomorrow: Auron - 17/20
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

I'm confident Jak will close the gap as the day goes on.
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Current Score: 19/20
Today's Pick: Jak

You picked Shadow, didn't you?
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Link, Magus, Crono, Mario, Mega Man, Solid, Knuckles, Cloud, Sonic...
Go Frog!

Wouldn't count on it. The lead is still growing. Mind you, Shadow could only eat 400 votes away from Tidus' lead. And IIRC, Ness has a bigger lead than Tidus at the same hour.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

You picked Shadow, didn't you?

...yes.
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Current Score: 19/20
Today's Pick: Jak

If QBOB keeps that topic of his up, doesn't that mean we won't be able to create the next topic?
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Current Score: 19/20
Today's Pick: Jak

Good Morning.

Once more, more than half the BOP will fall flat on their face!! This is so entertaining!!! :-)
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GameFAQs can gain justice from this petition! Please visit it at http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=15656619 (920 Signs!)

Go Ness.
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I find it hard to tell you. I find it hard to take. When people run in circles it's a very very mad world. - Tears For Fears

Ness/Earthbound really deserve this win.
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Remember Dr T? Now he's back, in POG FORM!
Proud supporter of Viewtiful Joe!

Keep it up, Ness...keep it up.....
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Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Ulti, did you post your bracket anywhere.... Just wondering cause I have this sinking feeling that we have the same bracket.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Only seeding upsets he got from here on in are DK and Ryu (SF) in round 1, Yoshi and Frog in round 2, Crono in round 3, Samus in round 4 and Cloud over Link in the finals.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

The Ness nerds can have their moment...the late morning/all day vote belongs to the casuals and the kiddies and these will lean towards Jak more than a little bit.

So am I worried? Nope...
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Steve Illumina: Official Satirical Commentator of SC2K4
Perfects to Fall: 595 SC2K4: 19/20 (Go Jak/Vivi!)

All I can say is.....damn. Unless Jak makes a magical comeback, then Ulti has beaten me, since I'm 2 points back of him and the only other difference in our brackets is Vivi/DK.
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Contest status: 19/20 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

Me and ulti have the same bracket then slowflake.
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Ness has this one won.. I don't think the morning or daytime votes will go to Jak.. Ness will probably get the majority of it..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

Then the only difference I have with you is Mario over Crono... thought I'd let you know that.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

I think that the group of people who've played SSB/SSBM but not J&D/Jak 2 are probably voting for Ness because it's a guy they've heard of and don't love or hate versus an unknown. That group, which I'm guestimating makes up about a third of the vote, is probably the difference-maker.
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Contest status: 19/20 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

Of course it does. That was the whole basis of my picking Ness in the first place.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

another lose to me

well it doesn't matter I live in Canada
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

Hey Slowflake, who do you have winning for the match Vivi vs. Donkey Kong?

In two days, this might cause Ulti his perfect bracket..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

We both have DK winning.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Are you confident with that pick with DK over Vivi. My first thought of the bracket when it was available was always Vivi winning over DK.. But oh well.. I can't wait to see this match.. It's probably going to be extremely tight..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

I'm quite confident in that pick for now. It could change tomorrow, but for now I'm still thinking DK will probably get it.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

I hope vivi wins that match because if he does I will be perfect till VJ/Tails where I made a mistake by picking tails.
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21/21 points in sc2004
tomorrow's pick: Auron

Who said Tails was a mistake? I picked him too, and we very well could be wrong...but it's a good enough risk to take.
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Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

W00t! My bracket is still perfect. Surely I will make the top 50 sometime soon?

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^ Smurf, The cream of Sonic fanboyism ™

Harrich, didn't say tails was a wrong pick, but it's very risky. If tails wins my chance of being top 50 will be very big. My theory for tails winning is that VJ is way overhyped by the board just like Jak, and tails will get the casual vote, because VJ isn't that well known. Hope I'm right.
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21/21 points in sc2004
tomorrow's pick: Auron

I wonder how big on an upset it'll be if Tails did win; I'm sure there'd be no more than 50% who predicted Tails.
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Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Maybe, I just am bias against Tails and Ness (yes I have played Earthbound and wasn't too impressed) So I might lose two points... sigh. I hope Jak can come back, not just because it would make me look a bit smarter but because I wanted this match to be closer.
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SC2K4 Score 20/20. Today's pick: Jak(sigh). Voted For: Jak.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Maybe I'm just pro-tails to think that he will win that match. I had sonic winning the first contest, and after him losing somewhere in final 8 or what I had him winning the contest again in 2003. How stubborn. And I always had tails winning his first match and he always lost. But on the positive side: VJ has never won a match either.
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21/21 points in sc2004
tomorrow's pick: Auron

My thoughts on Vivi vs. DK...

...who wins bewtween Vivi and Vercetti? Dunno about you guys, but I'd pick Vivi to win that match in a heartbeat. So, why can't he beat DK as well?
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-Phediuk

Well, things look good for Ness after the morning has come along. Good stuff.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I would be happy if it were closer. I don't know about you but the most fun match in this contest so far was Frog/Liquid. I was just hoping this was going to be another one. Deep down I knew Ness had it, I was just hoping for the only real upset.
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SC2K4 Score 20/20. Today's pick: Jak(sigh). Voted For: Jak.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Hmm, carriers aren't going to arrive. Down four. DK had better pull through in a couple of days.
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Jon Thomson - today: Jak, tomorrow: Auron - 17/20
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

...who wins bewtween Vivi and Vercetti? Dunno about you guys, but I'd pick Vivi to win that match in a heartbeat. So, why can't he beat DK as well?


...because Vercetti would beat Vivi, methinks.
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"If I had a kid, I'd name him Isosceles!" ~ Kramer
Pick: Squall vs. Bomberman. Vote: Bomby. 17/19/192

Slow, you're treating Auron like he's a powerhouse when he is only a midcarder. It's that common misperception here that he's just this fan favorite that everybody loves while Tidus is the one everybody loves to hate. I just can't imagine Vivi being weaker than Aya Brea either.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Alright, Ness is doing great today...it is a bit scary though to see him in Round 2...
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Mega Man vs. E. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. Jak - Bracket: Ness - Vote: Jak (19/20)

Also, unless Jak is quite a bit stronger than Ratchet, it looks like Bowser-Ness SFF was minimal. I figured the only way Ness would win was if Jak was around Ratchet's level, and he doesn't look to be much better.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Midgar Division: Round 1 - Match 22 B (3)Auron vs. (14)Scorpian

Auron
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy X
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 20th
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 8
Lost in Round 2 to Cloud in 2003.

Wow, talk about a monster push. Auron is back and with a high seed. A 3-seed....>_>

Scorpian
Game/Series Known From: Mortal Kombat Series
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 22nd
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 31st
Seed in 2002: 5
Seed in 2003: 10
Lost in Elite 8 to Link in 2002 and to Zero in Round 1 in 2003

Not fading as fast as Pac-Man or Bomberman, but still losing popularity. From making the Elite 8 to losing in Round 1. Ouch.

In 2002, if these 2 went up against each other, Auron would barely win. 2 years later, Auron would still win. =P Don’t count out Scorpion though, he isn’t exactly fodder.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Auron will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Auron 60% - Scorpian 40%



Ulti’s Analysis

I'm not even doing to dignify this with a response.

Ulti’s Bracket/Prediction - Auron/Auron with 62.33%



Cena’s Analysis

Apparently, Auron is badass. When I played FFX, I thought he was a pansy with a stupid voice. Hell, I actually like Tidus more than Auron. But Scorpion shouldn't even be here. He got blown away last year and Sub-Zero would fare better. I'd have given the spot to Ken Masters anyhow. But enough of that. Auron is a 3 seed, people love him, and he's going to win, hands down. Scorpion may be bad-ass as well, but there's been no character development at all in the past how many years? Let's just hope that the new Mortal Kombat game can puish him to 40%.

Cena's Vote: Scorpion

Cena's Prediction: Auron with 62% (Seems right, but I don't know why)

---
Mega Man vs. E. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. Jak - Bracket: Ness - Vote: Ness (19/20)

62% for Auron? That exceeds Zero's performance and is nearly 6% better than the extrapolated standings would have him at.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Hooray for Ness! My sig proved true.
Now, on the topic of Vivi/DK:

As Chic keeps pointing out, we have had 2 characters who mysteriously increased/decreased last year revert back to the their 2k2 levels: Bomberman and Crash. Why not DK? Oh, but he suffered massive SFF in his match against Mario, you say. His popularity didn't actually fluctuate.

Okay, then 2k2 Aya Brea gets 24.8% on Link and comes in 20th in 2k2, between Morrigan and Squall, and 31st in 2k3, between Luigi and Scorpion. Aya Brea. I don't think she's nearly that strong considering Ramza, Sora, and even SFF Kefka couldn't get near to those percentages.

Which means DK might have got some SFF, but his popularity probably fluctuated, too. Which means he might revert back to 2k2 levels. Which means good things for our friend the Black Mage.

Auron/DK (2k3): Auron with 55.90%
Auron/DK (2k2): Auron with 76.49%

A difference of about 20%. Plenty of room for Vivi to slip in unnoticed.
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Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
JAK CANNOT GRASP THE TRUE NATURE OF NESS' ATTACK!

Actually, that doesn't exceed Zero's performance but comes close.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

62% does seem a bit high, but it could happen.

How do you explain Auron's boost in the noms, and Scorpian's drop? I know Ceej messed with the seeds, but still, Auron had to get a pretty good number of nominations. If that is so, he will also get a boost of strength, while Scorpian continues to fade away.
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Mega Man vs. E. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. Jak - Bracket: Ness - Vote: Ness (19/20)

I prefer not to look at the seeding because of how screwed up it is. It really wouldn't make sense, to me, for Auron to go increase nearly 6%, or even at all. Scorpion decreasing could be possible, but nothing something I'd see be in large.

I just think a prediction of 62% is far to high for Auron to get.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I thought it was high too, and that 60% sounded about right.

Maybe Ulti and Cena could give their reasons on why they went high.
---
Mega Man vs. E. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. Jak - Bracket: Ness - Vote: Ness (19/20)

From: Mega Man Classic | Posted: 8/21/2004 12:29:53 AM | Message Detail
Oh and assuming Ness wins I would just like to thank Chichiri for getting me to switch my pick of Jak over to Ness. All because of that SSBM argument. =P

You're welcome.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Heh. =)
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I thought Vivi was pretty straightforward as far as such things go...
I would put Final Fantasy 9 over Duck Hunt...
<.<
>.>

Yeah.
DK really isn't even a midcarder.

He's a yellowcarder. Too much more junk from him and he won't even return.

*points at spyro*
Spyro was a redcarder.
:P
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Cloud Laharl Kirby Squall Ness Auron Vivi Sephiroth
Sonic Ryu Joe Dante Sora Ryu Sam Samus (only one loss)

"Slow, you're treating Auron like he's a powerhouse when he is only a midcarder."

Just go ahead and prove he didn't have SFF. Were relying on the idea that Tails was unchanged from 2k2 to 2k3 to say he had no SFF. We also relied on the idea that Pac was unchanged as well to prove that Kefka had too little to be of interest. Kefka clearly had SFF, and so can Auron. I bet he'll fall closer to Tidus this time than last unless he suffers SFF again against Seph. Either way, he does have two opponents that aren't FF to show if he did or not.

"I just can't imagine Vivi being weaker than Aya Brea either."

Which is why Slow, Ulti, and everyone else who picked DK are going to miss that match

"62% for Auron? That exceeds Zero's performance and is nearly 6% better than the extrapolated standings would have him at. "

It's not quite as crazy as it sounds... SFF + margin of error and he can take it.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

that's why I'm going to test my Mario vs. Cloud thoery tomorrow
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

I still am not seeing it, but we'll see.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

*does a backflip*

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 19/20, Picked: Ness, Voted: Ness
NESS ROCKS

I don't know.. But i think Auron might be able to make 62%.. It's a bit high, but he might be able to do it..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

I think teh Gaming chaarcter will win da contest.

Nah, I think that this shows the there was likely SFF in Bowser vs. Ness, as I've always thought, and still think Jak would beat Ratchet with ease.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tails turned out to be the favorite across the 33,000-something brackets against Viewtiful Joe. Come to think of it, the average bracket maker might actually think Tails is more popular than Knuckles! Nearly 50% thought Tails would beat Alucard, 40% thought he'd beat Auron, while only only 50% had Knuckles over Yuna, etc.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Jak would beat Ratchet, and there was SFF in Bowser/Ness, even if you don't want to believe it. It's quite obvious. Ness is stronger than expected.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 19/20, Picked: Ness, Voted: Ness
NESS ROCKS

The Ranting

*If you wish to skip most of this and get to the good stuff I will post the important part in the next post.

HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERE'S NESSY! Yeah, as I've been saying for awhile now, Ness has this one in the bag. I've been out having fun, doin' my weekly magic thing, and just in general not being concerened about the upcomming match. About 1:30 in the morning I say to myself "Self, we need to find out about the big match". And what do I discover? Ness Winning with some 57% of the vote! This is an hour and a half in, boo-yah! This isn't the board vote, this is te night vote, and it's wrapped around Ness' little bat. I'm awake now, Ness still leads comfortably. By 3.4k, in fact, which as we all know is a number even Starcraft and Duck Hunt can't overcome.

So this is one big ass "I told you so". I was trying to be nice, too. I was telling you all so long ago that you had time to change your brackets upon hearing my infallible words. Someone even did.

And to get off the preachyness... This is by far going to hurt the perfects more than the last three matches combined, should all go as expected. I see Ness being the bracket favorite, but in a way unexpected. Frankly the people at the top are going to be even more split that the general brackets. If either contestant has around 55% I imagine the perfects will be split closer to 50/50, regardless of who the brackets favored. 275 after today? Fine. That sounds about right. And there's plenty of room in the top 50 about to open up.

So, who on the boards comes out looking the best? The Gurus, of course. And by Gurus I do mean those who put their sigs on the line for this. I do beleive that Slow and I talked about Vivi/DK or Ness/Jak awhile ago and after saying that the people you should trust are the people in here, when it comes to making tough decissions. He pointed out that the BoP favored my loser, and I pointed out that the Gurus highly favored my winner. The Gurus do favor Vivi, and so I do believe it's time to speak of him.

Confidence. Utter confidence. Annoying, to some degree, and seen as arrogant by many others. That's the confidence I have in my picks for time to time. And when I get so confident that I can't even say the opposition's arguments hold water I have a tendancy to come out looking rosy. Sure, you can call it arrogance. Sure, you can say I didn't know any more than anybody else and I had no real right to carry on as such. But when I'm that damn confident it's hard to stop myself. And I'm that damn confident about Vivi.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

THE IMPORTANT PART!!!

How many times have I heard in this very thread anything at all to the likes of "Nobody played FF9"? More than I can count, I assure you. So, what information do people base this off of? It can't be sales. You know why? Because WW only sold a couple hunderd thousand more units, and we did see what WW was capable of. Boards or FAQs? Well it can't be boards, because FF9 still has two of them, and they are just as busy as FF8's. FAQ's? Nope, can't be, FF9 is the fourth most popular FFon this site in terms of FAQ use.

My conclusion? SOMEBODY on this site has played FF9. In fact, I'd bet it's a lot of somebodies. The game was played, the game is known, and it's clearly not hated. Perhaps some general indifference exists, but not much hatred.

So a good deal of people have played FF9. Then what is Vivi's trouble? Apparently people think he's not known well enough. Why, is he some hidden character nigh impossible to access? Nope, in fact you start off controling Vivi. Are people too dumb to learn how to start the game? I doubt it. FF9 has been played plenty, and people have played it know Vivi. Is he some minor character? Nope, he may be a minor but he is, in fact, very important to the story. What we learn about Vivi is key to the game.

And what do we learn about Vivi? Well, from the get go we learn he's just so damn cute! He's a lovable little guy who FF9 players connect with immeadiately. Obviously not all players of the game, but many. He has soemthing about him that makes people feel some connection to him, and that means a lot. Sure, people like the badass characters and people like the leads, but people also liek characters that they can feel for. Vivi is the sort that one roots for. He's the underdog by nature, as a character, and you can't help but want him to grow and prove to everyone that he's truly great. When he trips the first time, you know what he'll be like, and as you play if you don't feel a stronger connection to him than just about any other FF character in that generation then you're obviously not an RPG fan, nor a fan of well-made characters. You can like the badass, badasses are cool, but Vivi is the type of character you can love.

Even in a game that is treated with some indifference Vivi is a character that stands out. Even if the rest of the entire cast is nothing but rubbish to you (excepting Beatrix, of course) Vivi is still a compelling character that people actually CARE ABOUT. He's not the badass, he's not the lead, but he is the only character in the last five* worlds that square has deemed worthy of Final Fantasy-hood that anyone can relate to, root for, and care about. No character from Final Fantasy 7 all the way up until 10 can create the sort of connection with the players that Vivi has because none are as deep nor as compelling.

*Note: Final Fantasy 11 is counted as a main series game, so I threw it into the count despite not really having any characters of note.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

But if people don't appreciate Vivi as much as they should according to you, we the Vivi-pickers are screwed.

---
Link, Magus, Crono, Mario, Mega Man, Solid, Knuckles, Cloud, Sonic...
Go Frog!

"But if people don't appreciate Vivi as much as they should according to you,"

If people appreciated Vivi as they should he'd be in the top 16 characters come extrapolated time. He, as a character, is highly appreciated by anyone who took the time to play the best Final Fantasy released since in a long time. If not for my last two play throughs of 7 I'd deffinately put 9 over 7, and in terms of character and plot development I may still put 9 over 7. But damn 7 had a fun system to play with.

Vivi, as a character, is appreciated. The only thing now is to find out how many people gave FF9 enough of a chance that they should fell that way towards Vivi. I think it's more than enough. Vivi couldn't lose to Aya, and DK could barely beat her. Vivi will win.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"released since in a long time."

Ah, the mistakes you make when you decide to change your wording in the middle of a sentence.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Too much more junk from him and he won't even return.

Donkey Kong has an awesome set of games coming out in 2005. He's not gone from these contest for a while.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

DK will probably never be kicked. I doubt he'd get 0 nominations, and as long as 3-4 people want to see him Ceej will keep bringing him back due in larger part for what he did in the past than what he has done recently or will do soon.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I'll nominate DK. Even though Diddy is ten times better. But I still think DK hasn't done enough this year to put him at the status of an FF character. Everyone knows that the platforming genre is going down on this board (as shown by today's results).

On the other hand, why I haven't I seen arguments about SSBM like I did for Ness? I say that DK's fanbase and SSBM's fanbase overlap almost completely. But I want to hear your opinions on it.
---
Summer Contest Match 20 Ness vs. Jak
Status 19/21 Points: 019 Next: Auron vs. Scorpion

Donkey Kong has been so big for so long that the odds of SSBM helping him out are unlikely. In Ness' case SSB/SSBM introduced him to a lot of gamers who were unaware of him. The odds of that same thing happening with DK are extremely unlikely.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

"On the other hand, why I haven't I seen arguments about SSBM like I did for Ness?"

Simple, we've seen where DK stands when he doesn't face another Nintendo character, on the othe hand we had never seen where Ness stood when not facing another Nintendo cahracter. For all we know Jak could beat Ratchet 60/40 (though if Ness is the same as last year it's be more like 52-53% in favor of Jak), assuming no Naughty Dog SFF. Ness Wasn't properly tested, and he lost any chance of SSBM support last year due to his opponent. That is why the arguments have been for Ness but not DK.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

And yes, wihtout anyone telling me, I do realize that I just said that Ness may actually be as stong as DK.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Nice. Viewtiful Joe for the PS2 comes out August 24th, and I was thinking September. =)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I couldn't imagine DK losing to Ness in a straight match.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Jak, tomorrow: Auron - 17/20
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

I just noticed that's three days before Joe vs. Tails. Viewtiful!!
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Yeah. I'm the proud new owned of Viewtiful Jow for GC. When I was in GS they weren't sure which version I wanted to buy. While Dante and all that are nice extra touches it was the $20 price tag that enticed me to buy the game in the first place. A Dante cameo isn't worht $30 to me. Then again, if te PS2 version drop to $20 new I might pick that up, too, assuming I enjoy VJ for my cube.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Your bound to enjoy it Chichiri, I absolutely love that game. Aside from MMAC it's my favorite game of the generation. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

"I couldn't imagine DK losing to Ness in a straight match."

Nor would I. Don't think Jak would actually take 60/40 on Ratchet AND I think Ness would lose soem due to SFF agaisnt DK as well. He would, however, look better then he did against Bowser in the XSt if he went against DK.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

you're treating Auron like he's a powerhouse when he is only a midcarder

He's neither. Somewhere in the middle.

I'm under the impression Tidus is stronger than Squall solely because of the popularity of their games. PotD logic seems to apply really well to Summer Contests in that regard. If this is true, Vivi would probably wind up well below Auron. I keep saying Auron would get in the mid-50s against DK, and by God I'll stick by it. For the next 12 hours at least.

Aya? No one here would buy her getting 48% on Vercetti, right? How about BEATING YUNA AND KOS-MOS? Yet it's there.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

"I'm under the impression Tidus is stronger than Squall solely because of the popularity of their games."

Actually, to be honest, I eventually warmed up to Cloud and Tidus. They do end up having soem redeeming traits. On the other hand, Squall never gives you anything to work with. He's always like "Meh, whatever" then he passes on the chance to nail the hottest girl in the game to be with the most annoying. There's just not all that much to work with there.

"PotD logic seems to apply really well to Summer Contests in that regard."

Riiiiiight, I bet it does. I mean, hell, Kefka is our number three guy for square this year, right? Or at least just behind Tidus as they should be very close. What? No? Kefka would get murdered by even Squall? Murdered by Rinoa!? PotD does't help that much, especially since votes for favorites don't take into account which is least favorite. FF8 can take 4th in a favorites poll, but it can ALSO "win" the most hated poll.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=577

In fact, not only does FF8 take the cake there but FF9 has less hate than FF7. The PotD only takes into account one side of the coin most of the time, and while a lot of people may like 8 more than anyother (perhaps some 10%) the largest group of haters have proven that hey are focused on 8 as well. Sure, 35% probably wouldn't hold up anymore, but I'd be willing to be that it's still number 2 right after X-2.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"Auron would get in the mid-50s against DK, and by God I'll stick by it. For the next 12 hours at least."

Yeah, and in 12 hours you'll see that it's not so.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I meant for FF7 and after, duh. I didn't think I'd have to mention it. Guess not.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Your bound to enjoy it Chichiri, I absolutely love that game. Aside from MMAC it's my favorite game of the generation. =p

Nah, Metroid Prime trounces them both. I love that game as much as I love Super Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time.
---
-Phediuk

Maybe Ulti and Cena could give their reasons on why they went high.

It was a homer pick. Auron is only going to manage around 57%, I think.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Metroid Prime was extremely good, but I just loved Viewtiful Joe far to much. And MMAC is just like... perfect.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I don't think MMAC is really eligible for "best game this generation".

After all, it's just six NES games, one SNES game, one PSX game, and two {ancient} arcade games.
---
-Phediuk

If I counted collections, it'd be my favorite game. Though you are right, it's really not one of those games you'd call best of the generation.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

SC2K4 FIRST DRAFT - PAGE 22 - (3) AURON vs. (14) SCORPION

Disclaimer: This preview series may contain mildly offensive stuff, as well as SPOILERS, not only for the characters discussed, but other stuff as well.

Hehe, undead warrior vs. undead warrior. Setups that don't involve SFF are fun.

With that obvious tidbit out of the way... I have... nothing of interest to say. This match isn't even supposed to be worth my time, yet it's been beaten into the ground. Probably has something to to with it indicating the way the next big match, Vivi/DK, will go. Cloud/Auron SFF is the main issue here. There's evidence that there wasn't any (namely Tails, and if the Sonic crew really fell a bit between the two contests, like Sonic and Knuckles going down a notch would indicate, Auron may have overperformed!), and there's no evidence that there was. That's good enough for me.

Really, all Auron has to do is take these two easy victories, lay down for Sephiroth and wait until KH2 comes by.

NUMBERS OF INTEREST

SC2K3 extrapolated standings
20. Auron - 27.80%
31. Scorpion - 23.94%
Projection: Auron with 56.94%

Board Odds Project picks (119 brackets)
Auron - 116
Scorpion - 3

Board Odds Project point value
12. Auron - 346
44. Scorpion - 9

CONTEST TRIVIA

Auron is expected to have the same career path once this contest is over as Alucard before it began - loss to Cloud the first year, loss to Sephiroth the second - minus one victory.
Scorpion is the only non-Noble Nine character to have ever made the Elite 8.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

that's why I'm going to test my Mario vs. Cloud thoery tomorrow

Can someone tell me the theory? I don't know if I've heard it before...
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Someone has the same bracket as me? Samurai, what's your tiebreaker.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

*chuckles* Alright, I've officially been owned by Ness.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

"meant for FF7 and after, duh."

It doesn't matter, the potd's might show an order of sorts, but that by no means indicates any sort of strength. Not to mention FF9 has been represented so your evidence doesn't hold any water yet. It's merely speculation. Speculation that does't take into consideration many factors. Of FFs 7-10, 9 is least often the favorite, but it is also least often hated. Perhaps while we don't know it 9 may have been second favorite more times than expected. We can't really track that data at all. All we do no is that FF 9 is neither the favorite nor the least favorite FF in the last two generations. I'll take that over 3rd best and least favorite.

Oh, and in case you didn't read every point, theres a lot of reason to dislike Squall. Vivi just doesn't have that. For that reason we can't be sure your theory will hold any water.


Oh, and Viewtiful Joe is tough. Sure, I put it on Adult, but it's still damn hard. Gonna play it on the kiddie mode to get a better grasp of the ame, and maybe beat the first stage. And I was close on Adult, too. A dozne or so more hits on that chopper and I would have had it... but unfortunately I missed two jumps in a row got nailed by one of its bullets and punched by one fo the guys it drops... hard game.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

DK would definately beat Ness. Im not so certain about Vivi, however.
---
Hylian Knight and Link's Army
20/20 Today: Ness Next: Auron

Definitely. Viewitful Joe is a very hard game, I did the same thing as you. Started on Adult and then went back to Kids. Just imagine, there is V-Rated and Ultra V-Rated difficulty levels to get. ;)
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I still don't know how the hell people are able to get all V-ratings (Rainbow Viewtiful) on Ultra V Mode O_o.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Lots of practice. It took me a while to be able to do that. Hard, hard stuff.

Luckily for those PS2 gamers, they get an easier difficulty level called "Sweet". =p
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I don't remember my tie bracker Ulti, and I can't seem to find it on my entry page. Its probably 60k or 70k something *shrug*.
---
Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

Then it's higher than mine by a longshot. Good.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I dont even remember the question.... it was how many votes the champ would get in the final match right?
---
Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

62% for Auron? That exceeds Zero's performance and is nearly 6% better than the extrapolated standings would have him at.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Auron get this much. He beat down Tails really well, and then got killed by a SFF against Cloud.

This is Scorpion we're talking about. He's much different than from 2 years ago, and the MK series hasn't picked up any.
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TheRye pwned me so badly during the Ness/Jak match that I wont' be able to sit for a week.

The release of Viewtiful Joe on the PS2 officially destroys any hopes that Tails fans might have had. Though I don't understand why they'd have hope. This is Joe for cryin' out loud. He takes away all Nintendo votes and its not like a Square or PS2 fanboy is gonna vote for some kiddy lookin' animal.
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TheRye pwned me so badly during the Ness/Jak match that I wont' be able to sit for a week.

I still don't think he could match Zero unless there was some SFF in Cloud vs. Auron and Scorpion going down.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Didn't Scorpion actually increase according to the rankings?

Also, MK:DA has sold over 2 million copies and Deception is coming out in early October. Don't expect Scorpion to fade much.
---
"Do these huggies make my ass look big?" - Stewie Griffin
Vote Jak!

So, what sort of %age of people do you think will have picked Ness? I'm guessing slightly less than half, about 48% or so.

The very fact that Ness has a (Earthbound) tag after it makes it likely that the casual visitors who'll make up the majority of people making brackets won't have a clue who he is and pick Jak, unless they just went for the higher seed... god I'm confused now :-)

Let's say it's comparable to Frog in a way. Except Liquid Snake would beat Jak easily.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Jak, tomorrow: Auron - 17/20
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

I do see it as being comparable to Frog vs. Liquid Snake in the sense that Ness will be the lesser known of the two in brackets. If anyone was here and made a bracket, probably saw Ness get destroyed by Bowser and then during the spring watch Earthbound get taken out by Doom.

I'd imagine since Jak would be more known among the more casual bracketmaker, though Ness has the higher seed, that'd it'd be nearly 50% either way.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I don't think Ness is unknown by the casual bracketmaker. Underestimated, probably, but not unknown. I give this mid 50's, simply because of Ness' higher seed.
---
Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
JAK CANNOT GRASP THE TRUE NATURE OF NESS' ATTACK!

In fact, anything Earthbound has been the underdog by brackets:

Bowser vs. Ness - 79.47% picked Bowser.
Earthbound vs. Doom - 61.92 for Doom.

Earthbound was even the higher seed in the match against Doom as well. So, overall bracketmaker's usually don't see to favor Ness/Earthbound. Hopefully this will continue to hold true today.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

After todays match, is it safe to say that the casual vote doesn't really apply to gamefaqs?
---
Did you know A LONG LONG time ago in the days of the mayans people used to live for more than 500 years? Some, even, FOR ETERNITY-Jax1298

The casual vote doesn't mean as much as it used to with lower totals.

He beat down Tails really well, and then got killed by a SFF against Cloud.

If there was SFF against Cloud, then that means Tails actually went UP in strength while the rest of Sonic team went down. That makes no sense.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

The casual vote isn't nearly as big as it was last year, when vote totals were exceeding 100,000 all the time.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I guess you're right HM a bad choice on my part. Sigh, I think I'm giving up on winning the contest now. Perhaps I will get in the top 6 but with me having Link as the winner I doubt it. Someone will probably have a perfect bracket this year. I don't think anyone will have a zero one though...
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SC2K4 Score 20/20. Today's pick: Jak(sigh). Voted For: Jak.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

"That makes no sense."

Casual voters help mainstream fodder characters more than any other.

Crash is mainstream, he went up in 2k3
Bomberman is not, he went down in 2k3
Pac-Man is mainstream, he went up in 2k3

So then, why couldn't Tails? Do you believe that Sonic dropped that much? It was minimal, really, if you take into account this supposed WDF or if you realize that Cloud tore him up extra hard. Cloud was on the biggest ramapage we had ever seen and did way better early on than later. Link couldn't win any updates but he sure did slow down the train, as it were.

It's quite believable that Tails may have been helped enough to minimize any Team Sonic Drop.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"...but with me having Link as the winner I doubt it."

Well, all things considered it looks like GT wise Cloud was still a better pick than Link and he's the friggin' Champ. Sure, Link was 2k2 champ, but you'd think that'd make the two of them much more even than they appear to be.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Well, from what I have seen, the majority of the board has Vivi beating DK, as do I. I would feel comfortable, but the man leading the charge in DK's support is none other than Ulti, and that's scary, because Ulti's always right. Ulti, I've been listening to for a couple weeks now, and you've convinced me. It might have to do with the fact that Jak is going to lose today, and with the loss I don't really care about my bracket any more, and I've already ruled myself out of a chance of even making the Top 50 again. But I'm going against my bracket, and I believe that DK is going to win tomorrow.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

But I'm going against my bracket, and I believe that DK is going to win tomorrow.

Monday. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Oh and anyone who chose DK is wrong. So there ya go.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Actually I have thought DK would win it for a long time. I just didn't have much faith in FF9. DK however is a popular character with a strong fanbase. He was in the first "Mario" game of all time which means that DK= Greatness. Wait just because he is in a Mario game doesn't make him great (e.g. Daisy) Still Donkey Kong Country is glorious. Throwing Barrels? Could you come up with an idea that original I think not!
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SC2K4 Score 20/20. Today's pick: Jak(sigh). Voted For: Jak.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

"but the man leading the charge in DK's support is none other than Ulti, and that's scary, because Ulti's always right."

Always right? Since when? Sure, he won last time. He did great. And he IS on a tear right now. But yo udo realize I have the exact same streak as him, right? I took some bigger risks earlier in the last contest in hopes that It would set me further apart from the crowd. That didn't work, obviously, but you gotta take chances. I repect Ulti, and his opinion, but he isn't always right. The gurus disgree with him on that match. And not only do they disagree they do so quite heavily.

Believe me, if my own fanboyism hadn't prevailed during the spring Ulti wouldn't have done so much better than me (Second place in the Guru contest, might I remind you) and this time he CAN'T do much better than me. When the dust settles Monday it's either him or me, because from then on out our brackets are identical just like they have been so far. The difference between him and me is that I intend to win. I WILL win.

:)
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"Oh and anyone who chose DK is wrong. So there ya go."

Listen to him, the man is a god!

"a strong fanbase"

...
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA
*clears his throat*

Anyway...

"DK= Greatness"

BWAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHQAHA!

Excuse me... A-hem!
*coughs*

Yeah... anyway... Vivi is going to win. GG, better luck next time.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

If DK wins, I'm going to ridicule your ass so hardcore you'll just want to have it amputated. I am very confident that he'll pull it out. Yes, Vivi can't win. I just don't like the chances of it happening.

And if Auron gets in the mid-50s tomorrow, that pretty much wraps it up before it even begins, Prime/Wind Waker style.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

If you look at the extrapolated rankings from last year Donkey Kong is 29th. Now that thing isn't entirely accurate given. But it says he has a stronger fanbase than the following Luigi, Felix, Wario, Yuna and so on. Now it all depends on what you call strong I guess though. Anyway I think Donkey Kong is greatness. In Mario Kart 64 him and Bowser were my boys. I mean who doesn't like monkeys honestly? If you do then you sir either A) Don't believe in evolution or B) Hate people.
---
SC2K4 Score 20/20. Today's pick: Jak(sigh). Voted For: Jak.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Vivi's fanbase is still untested, while Donkey Kong has shown some power in the past contests. And of the 3 PSone Final Fantasies, FFIX is the least popular (for whatever reason). So I picked DK and stuck with it, and I now support him.

---
|| SC2K4 Points: 20/20 || Today: Ness vs. Jak
RANKED: 546th out of 33,221

Oh yes, because it's absolutely impossible for Vivi to be as popular as Auron.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Pretty much. As Ulti put it, people here didn't care about FF9 back then, and they don't care more about it now. Think about it. FF9 came at the worst possible moment, namely the PS2 launch (thank God for backwards compatibility, otherwise it would've been worse). Can Heroic Mario pump out sales numbers for FF8 to 10, please...?
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 8/21/2004 7:58:24 PM | Message Detail
Oh yes, because it's absolutely impossible for Vivi to be as popular as Auron.

Tidus : Auron :: Zidane : Vivi

I love Vivi to death, but he one of those cultish fan favorite-type characters. Auron needs to blow Scorpion out of the water tomorrow to make Vivi's chances look good. He probably will though, considering bracket voting is at an all-time high in this contest. I wouldn;t be surprised to see Auron pull in 60%+
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Final Fantasy VII 2.45 million
Final Fantasy VIII 1.91 million
Final Fantasy IX 1.34 million
Final Fantasy X 2.08 million

That's in America. So nobody cares about Final Fantasy IX because it's not the most popular in the series? If nobody cared about it, then how come it's not the most hated? That honor belongs to Final Fantasy VIII, and we know how strong Squall is.

It's not the best and it's not the worst. It falls somewhere in the middle. Besides, even people who dislike FFIX still like Vivi.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

But we don't even know where Zidane would fall in this contest either. You can say what you want about how he'd do, but it's still just speculation.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

As Tidus showed time and time again, hate is practically irrelevant. No publicity is worse than bad publicity.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Bleh.

If even the most annoying main characters(Tidus) can outperform their most badass counterparts(Auron)... and then you factor in that despite being the main character, Zidane wasn't even NOMINATED...

I just don't see how you could have CONFIDENCE in a Vivi victory. It's one thing to say it could go either way. But to have confidence? It's irrational.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

See Ulti's analogy. A lot of people hated FFX but still liked Auron.
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SC2K4 Score 20/20. Today's pick: Jak(sigh). Voted For: Jak.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

No publicity? It didn't sell as well as the rest of the series, but there is absolutely no way I'd qualify Vivi as an unknown to gamers. Goodness, if Aya Brea is well-known enough to contend with DK, there is absolutely no way Vivi isn't.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Besides, why are we talking about the sales of the most popular gaming series on this site when we know it's irrelevant? We've seen what characters from games that have sold FAR less than Final Fantasy IX can do.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

He still pales in comparison to Auron in every single aspect I can possibly think of.

I'm going to ask you a question... in a match between Aya and Wario, who would you pick?
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

2002 was the year of TJF. I think we can all agree that if DK would go up against Aya again this year, he'd win with little trouble.
---
Reggie: Kicking ass and taking names since E3 2004.
Nominate Kapp'n (Animal Crossing) for SC2K5!

Aya's picture against DK was from the neck up. Why do people still talk about that like it matters anyway?

I think Aya could beat Wario. He's not all that strong.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Well... Wario's just a teeny bit below DK. So certainly Aya isn't that weak now?
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Yeah, so? I still can't imagine Vivi being weaker than she is.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

You can't imagine Vivi being even just slightly above Yuna? I pity you.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Yeah, I wouldn't have a problem taking Vivi to beat Yuna.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Umm...Isn't vivi a dude?
---
Did you know A LONG LONG time ago in the days of the mayans people used to live for more than 500 years? Some, even, FOR ETERNITY-Jax1298

Did someone say otherwise?
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Also to answer if FF8 is so unpopular why did Squall do so well question, here's an answer

2003 DK > 2002 Squall
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

Yeah, but I don't see Vivi doing anywhere as well as DK would should he face her.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

Did someone say otherwise?

*smacks head on desk repeatedly*
Reading comprehension is my friend. I thought leonheart called vivi a she.
---
Did you know A LONG LONG time ago in the days of the mayans people used to live for more than 500 years? Some, even, FOR ETERNITY-Jax1298

Yeah, but I don't see Vivi doing anywhere as well as DK would should he face her.

I agree. He would do much better.
---
And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space,
'Cause there's bugger all down here on Earth.

DK would get 53.32% on Yuna in 2k3. You don't see Vivi getting higher than that?
---
Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/21/2004 8:31:12 PM | Message Detail
DK would get 53.32% on Yuna in 2k3. You don't see Vivi getting higher than that?

Nope.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Why I see Vivi so popular: Vivi is as popular as he is in spite of FFIX. I know many, many people who hate FFIX, yet loved Vivi in it.

Fair enough, Ulti. What would you give him?
---
Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Just a question to the DK people:

How close are you expecting the match to be? DK heart attack match, or easy win?
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

I love coming back from work to see Ness winning 55/45. I called 53/47, but that's good enough for me.

As for DK vs. Vivi, I'm actually calling 55/45 in favor of DK.
---
"I don't know who you are but I thank you for arousing me." -- Terranigma

55/45 split in favor of DK gives Vivi 22.07% on Cloud and sticks him in between Sora and Ramza in the XS. Which is fine if you think that's where he'd end up; I think he'll be stronger.
---
Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

FFIX's sales are hardly a factor in the Vivi vs. DK match.

Chrono Trigger sold horribly, and look how strong Crono is.
---
-Phediuk

Even if Vivi doesn't beat DK, there's no way he's as weak as Ramza or Sora.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

I did this for Jak/Ness, why not for Vivi/DK? If we are in agreement that Vivi falls somewhere between Auron and Yuna (are we?), here's the extremes of a Vivi/DK match:

Auron beats DK with 55.90%
DK beats Yuna with 53.32%

So Vivi gets between 46.68% and 55.9% if Auron > Vivi > Yuna (pre X-2).

Pretty close either way, but unlike Jak, Vivi is potentially closer to Auron than Jak is to Crash (at least I think so), and he has the higher margin in his favor. He'll also have the higher seed, and the potential bracket voters that come along with that (even though I still don't think that they are much of a factor).

By the way, if we still assume no Bowser/Ness SFF, Jak gets 13.45% on Cloud, 39.82% on Crash, and 53.76% on Ratchet.
---
Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Just a question to the DK people:

How close are you expecting the match to be? DK heart attack match, or easy win?

I think DK with about 53-55 percent
---
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Rogers Hornsby

I'm gonna stay out of this whole Vivi/DK discussion, cause I'm an FF9 fanboy. I'll just close my eyes, put my fingers in my ears, and keep believing that Vivi is destined to beat Sephiroth 60-40 and cruise to the contest victory.
---
Hmph.

Just one serious note... Do you seriously believe that DK will pass up the opportunity to have his fourth heart attack match in four contests?
---
Hmph.

No, he won't. I've said all along that, regardless of who wins, it'll be a close one.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

I swear if someone tries to pass off that Vivi is unknown they are getting it. You can't possibly say that and mean it after seeing Final Fantasy IX selling 1.34 million in North America and 2.08 million in Japan. Did we just all of a sudden forget that this site is biased toward Final Fantasy RPGs? I still find it astounding people can't see Vivi being stronger than DK. There is room to fit inbetween there people.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

And if DK wins it'll be close, no doubt about it.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I want to see Vivi pull a Duck Hunt, but actually succeed. Or see Vivi totally kick DK's ass... One or the other would be nice =).
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Haha, Vivi pulling a successful Duck Hunt would own.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

I think Vivi will go up by 200 early, where DK will then come back and build a lead of 53%-47% through the day and win.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Yep. Don't ask where the day vote will go on this one, we already know.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

My initial and gut bracket: Dk.
After reading this board: Vivi.

Arg I will be upset if I lose this one. Especially after keeping my perfect bracket after Ness/Jak.
---
Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.

Take anything this board tells you with a grain of salt.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Or see Vivi totally kick DK's ass... One or the other would be nice =).

That is an impossibility. DK only loses in tight matches or after a tight match. >>

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Also, the women all have beards. Either that, or there are no dwarven women. Yeah, I could see that. This is Suikoden after all. -http://videogamerecaps.com

Man, I regret putting Vivi in my bracket. I wish I change the bracket to DK...
---
I lost my perfect bracket! Now I'm going to get pwned by <insert username here> in the Guru Contest! Ugh!!!

super big question: how will the final standing scores differ from last years?

will the top placer have a better score?

will tenth place be higher than 177 this year?

---
Mario Sunshine-120 Shines || BtT 3:44.88 || HRC 36,265.2 ||
SC2K4 17 / 20 Next Pick: Ness

Ok, I've been wrong about Crash having a chance against Chief, I've been wrong with Kefka over Knucks, I've been wrong with Jak over Ness.... come to think of it I've been wrong about practically everything thus far.

However, I think Vivi is going to become good friends with Frog and Kingdom Hearts, as that's how his match will go. Vivi's got the board hype surrounding him, huge favorite, and DK will come back and suprise a lot of people, losing in a nail biter with the backing of the regulars.

And for those curious about my hat eating which I said I'd do: I've lost my hat, and even if I had it I had my wisdom teeth pulled recently, so I couldn't even if I wanted to.

I'm pretty sure everyone thinks it'll be pretty close, no matter who wins. I give it to Vivi with 52.5-53.5%, myself, and I haven't seen anyone in this topic go higher than 55% either way.
---
Current Pick: Ness; Current Vote: Ness; Points: 20/20
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

I think the entire Top 50 will have 190+ points, myself. The Gurus really nailed their brackets this year, with only the occasional first round hiccups.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Assuming everything plays out exactly the way most people have predicted.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

190+ O_o? But 192 is perfect. And you guys are split evenly between Link and Cloud (28 or 29 each?), with a few for Sephiroth and MM. I don't see how it could be full of people with 190+. 185+ maybe?
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

I can't see a perfect or over 190. That's missing either one match, or two in either the first or second round.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I am shocked this loser Ness won...but there aint no way the ape is winning too...I will not lose 3 points in the first round this year. Absolutely not.
---
Steve Illumina: Official Satirical Commentator of SC2K4
Perfects to Fall: 546 SC2K4: 19/21 (Go Vivi!)

The last match is so divided, I think you'll see people who nailed everything but the last match fall hard in the end.

I sure don't feel as stupid as everyone told me I was for suggesting that newbies would get rocked by the junky characters that have been here before.
---
-----
-------

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

I don't think the top 50 will have 190+ either. I think there's going to be a few unexpected shake-ups in the later rounds that no one saw coming.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Oh and anyone who chose DK is wrong. So there ya go.

Seconded. And after this embarrassing loss today which cost me my 2nd point...I will do nothing but gloat when my boy Vivi from my 2nd fav FF gets the job done against this goofball faded ape!
---
Steve Illumina: Official Satirical Commentator of SC2K4
Perfects to Fall: 546 SC2K4: 19/21 (Go Vivi!)

I think there's going to be a few unexpected shake-ups in the later rounds that no one saw coming.

*chants* Mega Man, Mega Man.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Mega Man? Well, I wish, but I think he meant more like Master Chief and maybe Luigi. Can't help but admire the spirit though. =P
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Put me down for Luigi "upsetting" Yoshi.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 19/20, Picked: Ness, Voted: Ness
NESS ROCKS

Luigi over Yoshi is my personal Upset Special.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Match XX: (4) Squall vs. (13) Bomberman Review

Squall beat Bomberman, 64.75% - 35.25%

Well that’s weird Squall couldn’t even double Bomberman. Can Kingdom Hearts really be dying off that much in a year? Well no. Bomberman like Crash has returned to there 2002 numbers, but this time it helped him instead of hurt him. So now this asks the question, why are some characters going back to there 2002 numbers. Well ever since the site change had changed that brought away many visitors and in 2002 most of the votes were from users anyways so I guess before the word gets out for this contest this is going to look really similar to 2002, but that should change once school has started.

---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

Match XXII: (3) Auron vs. (14) Scorpion Preview

Past Performances:

Auron: 2002

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Auron: 2003

Defeated Tails, 64.47% - 35.53%
Lost to Cloud, 27.80% - 72.20%
Ranked: 20th

Scorpion: 2002

Defeated Kazuya, 71.01% - 28.99%
Defeated Max, 65.37% - 34.63%
Defeated Pac-Man, 57.74% - 42.26%
Lost to Link, 24.02% - 75.98%
Ranked: 22nd

Scorpion: 2003

Lost to Zero, 37.16% - 62.84%
Ranked: 31st

Analysis:

Auron is from Final Fantasy X. Though he wasn’t in 2002 he was in 2003. Auron easily defeated Tails and did well against Cloud even though latter it was found that Auron didn’t suffer from SFF because Tails who was there in 2002 didn’t really fall. Auron is a strong character even though he doesn’t deserve a 3 seed (not many 3 seed deserve a 3 seed) he still can do a lot of damage in the bracket. This year it looks like Auron has a great chance of making it to the Sweet 16 since his round 2 match are 2 fodders going up against each other. Though if you ask me he’s going to have a lot more trouble against Scorpion then he is against Ness or Jak. Though once he gets to the third round that’s a different story.

Scorpion is from the Mortal Kombat series. In 2002 Scorpion was the year’s upset he made it all the way to the Elite 8 though it was a very weak division, but he beat 3 characters before doing worse against Link then Strider did. In 2003 he lost in the first round to Zero, but he did do well against him. Don’t forget that Zero almost took out Sonic in round two. Now this year Scorpion is underseeded and is most likely to lose in the first round. The weird thing is that Scorpion is ranked just behind Luigi yet Luigi is a 4 seed. This is to show you people that Scorpion lost a lot of nomination because people switch there nominations from Scorpion to Sub-Zero which in my opinion would do much better then Scorpion, but it looks like were going to settle with an underseeded Mortal Kombat character.

Well were taking a one day break for these “bracket busters”. We have the overseeded Auron going against the very underseeded Scorpion. This match will be closer then what the seeds should show, but there is no chance for Scorpion to win this match. He maybe a strong enough character that can easily beat half the field, but Auron is going to overpower him.

Well this match will probably test my Mario vs. Cloud Theory out. Well last year Auron had a match against Cloud, but to see if there was SFF or not we would have to go take a look at Tails, but it showed that there was barley if any SFF. Though Tails was in the same half of the division as Cloud was, but his match against Mario was interfered with PGC so Mario won, but taking a look at things Cloud should’ve won with 52% of the vote. So after making the adjustments Tails dropped about 1.5%, though that could be a cross of a margin of error and Sonic characters dropping, tough if it is true then I think it would happen on this match.

Even with this extra boost for Auron this match will probably be around 60%-40% though with Auron winning this match there will probably not be too much damage to the brackets since 1. He’s from Final Fantasy and there usually the favorites 2. This match is predictable. Well there is just one thing left to say. Too many people underestimated Scorpion, like Lara, Jill and especially Tidus many people put them as fodders and will make them lose at any match (maybe except Tidus, but he is over hated on the board). Well it looks like the third Final Fantasy character that will make the division semi-finals will have a rocky start, but will pick up steam by next round.

Charmander’s Bracket: Auron

Charmander’s Prediction: Auron wins, 61.52% - 38.48%

---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

And it looks like Ness will win this with around 55%.

So, does this mean Ness is actually stronger than he let on last year, or is Jak just fodder?
---
Mega Man vs. E. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. Jak - Bracket: Ness - Vote: Ness (19/20)

Auron over Ness right?
---
Current Score: 20/21. Overall Winner: Link
Upcoming Picks: Auron, Vivi, and Sephiroth

But Auron doesnt deserve to go into the sweet sixteen
---
Current Score: 20/21. Overall Winner: Link
Upcoming Picks: Auron, Vivi, and Sephiroth

you better Auron will beat Ness by more then he beat Scorpion
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

Sure he does.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Jak's hardly doing better than Ratchet, which would indicate some Bowser/Ness SFF after all, but they're all fodder anyway.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Darn, I shouldve put DK. He has way more games than Vivi (and Vivi only has one!) He is more recognizable. And hes a cool monkey! Doh
---
Current Score: 20/21. Overall Winner: Link
Upcoming Picks: Auron, Vivi, and Sephiroth

I predicted Auron with 63% in the Oracle challenge (which I'm doing miserably at). After reading a lot of people questioning whether he could get 62% I'm beginning to think 63% is too high, but I think there's still a chance he'll get it. He just may have suffered from SFF against Cloud after all.

Without SFF he'd be expected to win with 57% (against an unchanged Scorpion). If you toss in the amount of SFF that may have occurred in Crono vs. Kefka (by setting Pac-Man 2K2=2K3), then he takes it with about 66%.5%. I don't think 63% is out of the question, though I guess I probably did overshoot.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Wait, but saying Auron would get 63% is like saying Tails would almost beat Scorpion. I'd love to see Auron far exceed the calculations myself, though. It would be funny if Auron got less than 55%...not that I really care about who wins in these contests on a personal basis anymore.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Actually if the Mario vs. Cloud Theory is true then Scorpion would only get 55.83% against Tails
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

What is this "Mario vs. Cloud theory" about?
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Ness suffered SFF against Bowser. Jak is stronger than Ratchet, as most people thought, and Ness was just underestimated. He isn't fodder, but he isn't a real contender.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 19/20, Picked: Ness, Voted: Ness
Solstice (NES) World Record Holder

When people from PGC came and voted for Mario

If I remember correctly Cloud should've gotten about 52%
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

Oh, I see.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Theory shmeory.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 19/20, Picked: Ness, Voted: Ness
Solstice (NES) World Record Holder

I got the idea from Haste2's Mario anti-vote Theory for Servbot
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/20 Jak vs. Ness

Auron is performing most excellently against Scorpion...Tails is looking good to beat Joe.

Score-Brackets-% Right
20----546------57.3260073
19----2636-----63.8846737
18----5082-----61.4325069
17----6717-----56.7961888
16----6555-----53.4401220
15----4979-----50.0100422
14----3237-----46.2465246
13----1835-----45.7765668
12----879------46.7576792
11----360------42.7777778
10----143------44.7552448
9-----51-------50.9803922
8-----27-------48.1481481
7-----8--------62.5000000
6-----5--------60.0000000
5-----8--------12.5000000
4-----20-------5.0000000
3-----29-------44.8275862
2-----38-------34.2105263
1-----50-------32.0000000
0-----16-------56.2500000

The perfects did not do the best this match, but they still did slightly better than the average. The zeros, however, are a different story. Only 43.75% of them got the match right leaving us with only 7 left.

14 people fell off the top 50 today. Muchorattler, WaluigiIsDaBomb, Sp00nman, duxman, Jyin, DarkKeyblade, XFantasyRyu15, MedigoUltima, Kaxon, Virtuoso, FourthDeus, JonasWepeel, Ryan421 and Snotman choose Jak to beat Ness. And replaceing DarkKeyblade for unlikely champion pick is Fireblade02 with HK-47 taking the contest. Looks like weren't not through with favorite brackets yet.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Tails is looking good to beat Joe.

I think Joe has it, no problem to be honest.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I got the idea from Haste2's Mario anti-vote Theory for Servbot.

Actually, I think it's more on the Sonic/Knuckles/Tails proportion theory. I never made any theories based on Mario's anti-votes. My theory that partly explained Mario vs. Servbot was that Mario didn't attract votes well except in important matches.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

FYI, if Scorpion truly is only on par with Tails, this could perhaps mean that Tails was underrated two years in a row. Maybe. If that was the case, Alucard would actually be ranked close to the same in 2002 as in 2003 and this year! That would cause more clashes in extrapolation theories and stuff, though. >.<

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Er, if Scorpion stayed the same Auron would kind of be above Sonic right now.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

And if Auron was above Sonic, then Auron could be more popular than Tidus, as well. Of course...well, who knows...

Anyway, I think this shows that Vivi has a much better chance against DK than I previously thought.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

o_O You serious?

Ask yourself, what has Scorpion done for you lately? Nothing? Exactly.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Yeah... I know the match isn't over yet, but there's no way I'd buy Auron going up to around Sonic. (which would assume Scorpion didn't decrease)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I hope you guys seriously don't think I think that Auron = Sonic. Key word: IF.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Er, if Scorpion stayed the same Auron would kind of be above Sonic right now.

That's as much of a stretch as you may think. Tidus is only slightly weaker than Sonic. If Auron is more popular than Tidus like everybody says he should be, than Auron being this powerful is very possible.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Going from getting 28.73% on Link to around 9th place and giving Solid Snake a run for his money is a big stretch to me. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me to see Auron go down during the day. However, it all goes by the assumption that Scorpion didn't go down from 2003 and him going down is very possible.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I'm under the assumption that one, bracket voting is at an all-time high in these contests, and two, Scorpion overperformed in 2003 due to people reading his 2002 performance the wrong way. Heroic Mario could have won Scorpion's half-division, for God's sakes.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Just post a Mario/Mega Man hybrid picture up there and I could take out Kazuya Mishima, Max Payne, and Pac-Man no problem. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

If Auron surpassed 65.54% by the end of the match that'd put him inbetween Samus and Snake.

Yeah, funny.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Ulti:
I'm under the assumption that one, bracket voting is at an all-time high in these contests

Why?

Below shows the average total votes of the first 21 matches for each contest, the total brackets for each contest, and what the brackets represented as a % of total votes:

Average || Brackets || Bracket %
80,198 || 33,221 || 41.42%
88,241 || 40,940 || 46.4%
101,923 || 41,059 || 40.28%
58,607 || 16,764 || 28.6%

Clearly, the bracket % isn't much different than the last two contests, and a little less than the spring contest.

In order to believe bracket voting is now making a larger impact, you'd have to believe the population has become more likely to bracket vote. Possible, but pretty baseless (for the moment). Besides, as people have said many times, bracket voting has never seemed to matter much.

And if bracket voting was all that, Cloud would've smashed Duke a lot worse than he did. Unless the milk factor countered bracket voting and then a whole bunch more ;) But then you're just getting too convoluted trying to explain something that doesn't really demand an explanation.


Heroic Mario:
If Auron surpassed 65.54% by the end of the match that'd put him inbetween Samus and Snake.

Assuming Scorpion stayed the same. You could just as easily assume Auron stayed the same and downgrade Scorpion. I think the difference is more weighted towards an Auron increase though, obviously because of possible SFF.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

I think the base for more bracket voting is that more people this year care about their brackets. Be it "easier to predict" or a higher interest sparked by the board, this years top brackets are all very close together. The more people care about their brackets, the more they'll bracket vote.

ex: Knuckles was supposed to win by way more than he did. What pulled him down? An explantion could be that 57% of the brackets had kefka, and bracket votes would pull him down from what he should have gotten based on the year before.


And people tend not to bracket vote as much in a round 1 cloud match. The milk factor overtook many bracket votes I'm sure, including mine. They have the largest impact in close matches, when one has to decide 'vote for my favorite, or my bracket?' instead of thinking 'who really cares, it wont matter anyway.'

Ouch, 66% and climbing.

Regardless of the cause, Auron is making Scorpion looks worse than Tails. That's gotta hurt.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Auron is looking real good. Perhaps now he does equal or slightly surpass Tidus. Maybe he suffered SFF last year, maybe he increased in popularity, maybe Scorpion's popularity crashed, maybe it's the ever popular "a combination of all these factors". Myself, I'd say it's probably mostly SFF from last year against Cloud.

Though the irony is that with him facing Ness next, and then Sephiroth, we might have a lot of unanswered questions about both Auron and Ness (not to mention Sephiroth too). <sigh>

Be it "easier to predict" or a higher interest sparked by the board, this years top brackets are all very close together. The more people care about their brackets, the more they'll bracket vote.

Yes, clearly if you assume people are more inclined to braket vote it would be because they cared more/thought that bracket voting had more utility. But it seems strange that people's behavior would change in such a systematic manner--especially when the proportion of brackets remained about the same. And if things were getting more competitive, would not the number of brackets increase? We've certainly seen that the % of brackets is not constant, as it's gone up from the first contest; so you figure that if more people thought they could win (and increased their bracket voting tendencies because of this), that more people would also enter brackets. One could argue this by saying that perhaps the majority of the population simply does not think in these terms (in terms of competition and odds of winning), while the proportion that submits brackets does, and this proportion has leveled off (i.e., only those ~40% that are inclined to make brackets to begin with are more likely to get more "into" the contest); however, this is all pure speculation with only the frailest of logic behind it.

And as you said, bracket voting only has true utility in close matches. The fact Kefka was winning early when the match was close--at the time when one would think bracket voting was most common--doesn't really support the idea of bracket votes though, because everyone knows the board/early voters would be biased towards Kefka in terms of preference.

And if the idea that the early voters are the most likely to bracket vote is true, that would imply bracket voting has diminished. Due to the start of the poll being moved, the early vote now represents a much smaller portion of the total vote.

I would think that those people who don't vote early still vote anyway though, so I doubt the changing of the poll timing has affected anything. The point is that one cannot use the early results of matches to support a higher importance of bracket voting hypothesis because it also implies less bracket voting.

One could counter this by saying, perhaps the pure bracket voters are still around early in similar numbers as before, while others are gone, and thus they are more apparent--but only in close matches--and that more bracket voters exist during the day. But all this complicated theorizing seems rather pointless.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

I really wouldn't like to see Scorpion getting doubled up. It's the pic, you see. Stick in the Toasty guy from MK2 and Scorpion wins.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Auron, tomorrow: DK - 17/21
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

Ew. Just ew. This is gross. I know, Auron's going down madly. But still... this is huge... he's making Scorpion look worse than Tails... what if Tails beat Joe after all?

Needless to say, Vivi's chances for tomorrow look so much better all of a sudden.

Dead living dead stinks. Ew.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 020/020 - Matches: 20/20 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Ness - Tomorrow: Auron

What do the gurus have to say about today's match and Auron's %?
---
Link, Magus, Crono, Mario, Mega Man, Solid, Knuckles, Cloud, Sonic...
Go Frog!

SC2K4 FIRST DRAFT - PAGE 23 - (7) VIVI ORNITIER vs. (10) DONKEY KONG

Disclaimer: This preview series may contain mildly offensive stuff, as well as SPOILERS, not only for the characters discussed, but other stuff as well.

Well, I'll be damned. I had a fine piece ready to post on why Vivi had little hope of winning this, then Auron totally screws me over with a Noble Nine-like performance. The only part that would remain true (and it may be moreso now!) is that Vivi's nowhere near Auron. But it's not like it matters anyway, since the gap between Auron and DK looks so much bigger now.

So, with my plans ruined, I shall just watch the tide turn on DK as I exclaim this...

I AM THE PEOPLES! I CASTS THE VOTES THAT MAKES THE BLACK MAGE FALL DOWN!

Speaking of which, the Black Mage factor is probably the most common argument for DK winning. But there's no way around it; anyone who doesn't know Vivi will probably vote DK on looks alone. Vivi looks like ass, unless you know him. Kinda the same deal as Laharl. 8-Bit Theater's apport should be small as well... I can't see any 8BT junkie not voting Vivi beforehand anyway. FF1 and FF5? While FF6 receives lots of support, it seems to be the cut-off point. The first 5 rarely get much votes in favorite FF polls, except for FF4. FF1 even finished dead last the last time IIRC.

The whole basis for my argument of Vivi losing is the size of his fanbase compared to Auron. But with what Auron is doing today, it's falling apart. Vivi could get less than 40% on Auron and still beat DK, if what we're seeing today is all due to Auron. So no need for 8BT and all that junk... Vivi may come through all by his lone self.

What's left for me then? Pray, then pray some more. Oh, and pray for Joe too. Because if this is all Auron, this makes Tails look ****ing good. This would suck, getting all of Auron's matches correct, but getting two others wrong because I misread him.

NUMBERS OF INTEREST

SC2K3 extrapolated standings
29. Donkey Kong - 24.52%
DNE. Vivi Ornitier

Board Odds Project picks (119 brackets)
Vivi Ornitier - 92
Donkey Kong - 27

Board Odds Project point value
30. Vivi Ornitier - 92
38. Donkey Kong - 27

CONTEST TRIVIA

DK saw the biggest raw increase from 2002 to 2003 - presumably because of his performance being halved due to SFF against Mario.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Good luck to you, Slowflake.
---
Link, Magus, Crono, Mario, Mega Man, Solid, Knuckles, Cloud, Sonic...
Go Frog!

Well, good luck to you too, as well as all the Vivi pickers.

GAME ON!
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Damn, just now noticed I fell from the top. Funny thing is, I don't remember choosing Jak over Ness at all. And to think, all yesterday I was cheering good ol' Ness on. Don't get me wrong; I'm happy he won, but it's more a bittersweet victory now. I'm so stupid...

Well, Slowflake just summed up in a nutshell why I believe DK will win, although Vivi does kick more ass.
---
FACT: Shins are nothing more than tools for finding things in the dark.
*Certified Topic Killer*

"And if Auron gets in the mid-50s tomorrow, that pretty much wraps it up before it even begins"

I love you slow, but you're a sucker for an easy sky hook. I don't even have to try sometimes...

"As Tidus showed time and time again, hate is practically irrelevant."

Quite frankly Tidus' game was probably never hated as much as Squalls, and since potd's matter soooo much...

"I just don't see how you could have CONFIDENCE in a Vivi victory. It's one thing to say it could go either way. But to have confidence? It's irrational."

Doest thou doubt me?

"He still pales in comparison to Auron in every single aspect I can possibly think of."

Except um... character development, which the two run pretty even in, except that you don't care about Auron as a character and you actually do care about Vivi. He's also not iconic of the series while Vivi is a friggin' black mage. And he's not in the slightest cute, either. Sure badass is worth a lot of votes, but so is cute.

"2002 was the year of TJF."

You're about the only person that still believes in that pile of non-sense

"Wario's just a teeny bit below DK. So certainly Aya isn't that weak now?"

I can see that, and I still see Vivi higher than Aya.

"Yeah, I wouldn't have a problem taking Vivi to beat Yuna."

Me either.

"Yeah, but I don't see Vivi doing anywhere as well as DK would should he face her."

Well yeah, but you're wrong.

"Myself, I'd say it's probably mostly SFF from last year against Cloud."

Yeah, I've said that for awhile now, people didn't listen to me.... FOOLS!!!

"he's making Scorpion look worse than Tails"

I'm tellin' ya people, Tails got a rise out of 2k3 similar in manner to those of Pac and Crash. Mainstream fodder got a big boost and that is gone now.

"Good luck to you, Slowflake."

Slow is screwed.

"Well, Slowflake just summed up in a nutshell why I believe DK will win, although Vivi does kick more ass."

Too bad he is wrong
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Well, well, well... how's it goin' slow? Sweatin' yet? Game on you say? I bring the game. You said Auron would beat DK while in the mid 50's. Today that looks more like the mid 60's. You said no character is as strong as the main character in any game. And in fact I believe TRE came in here and said fan favorites are NEVER stronger than the lead. Well, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Auron's looking a lot closer to Tidus than we all thought. Hell, I expected SFF yet I was conservative enough to say Auron wouldn't be able to beat Tidus until after KH2. But hey, I'm willing to admit I may have been wrong on that one. Looks like a fan favorite is kicking some ass to me. So you said you didn't think Vivi could do better than Auron, and he'd probably have to fit in the gap between him and Yuna. I'll take that. Dead in the middle, please. Anyone who can beat Dante is good in my book. Let's face it, Vivi still wouldn't lose to Aya. He's not losing to DK. You said I'd be needing an ass amputation, but so far Auron is exceeding even my expectations and I'm one of the few, if only, who was willing to argue in favor of Auron/Cloud SFF. The gap is huge, Vivi won't fall outside of it unless he is somehow stronger than Sonic *grins* and there just isn't any room left for him to lose to DK. Hell, DK almost lost to Aya, after all, so why would you pick DK over a much more well loved character? I wouldn't
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

If you want an idea of how I feel, go check the Oracle topic.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Thanks for jumping on the Vivi bandwgon. Please keep your hands inside the vehicle at all times until we reach our destination....Victory.

And wow.....Auron is doubling Scorps. Very impressive.

How do you explain Auron's boost in the noms, and Scorpian's drop? I know Ceej messed with the seeds, but still, Auron had to get a pretty good number of nominations. If that is so, he will also get a boost of strength, while Scorpian continues to fade away.

Somebody's Prophet Skills are showing... >.>
---
Mega Man vs. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Scorpian - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Scorp (20/21)

"Well... I'm going agains my bracket for the first time this year."

heh heh heh
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 88.60% - Solid Snake over Tanner
2) 75.66% - Link over CATS
3) 67.08% - Mario over J.C. Denton
4) 65.98% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 65.96% - Megaman over Eartworm Jim
6) 62.08% - Magus over Luca Blight
7) 60.38% - Cloud over Duke Milk'em
8) 55.98% - Crono over Conker
9) 52.80% - Yoshi over Ryo Hazuki
10) 43.44% - Zero over Protoman

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 69759 - Solid Snake over Tanner
2) 62319 - Link over CATS
3) 55813 - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
4) 53705 - Cloud over Duke Milk'em
5) 52337 - Mario over J.C. Denton
6) 49079 - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
7) 44770 - Crono over Conker
8) 43761 - Magus over Luca Blight
9) 41506 - Yoshi over Ryo Hazuki
10) 35324 - Zero over Protoman

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.10% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1.62% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 10.16% - Ness over Jak
4) 14.32% - Ganondorf over Alucard
5) 14.92% - Knuckles over Kefka
6) 20.46% - Vyse over Laharl
7) 23.92% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne
8) 29.30% - Kirby over Kain
9) 29.50% - Squall over Bomberman
10) 35.46% - Luigi over Pac-Man

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 93 - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1546 - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 7397 - Ness over Jak
4) 12358 - Knuckles over Kefka
5) 12533 - Ganondorf over Alucard
6) 14072 - Vyse over Laharl
7) 18618 - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne
8) 23576 - Kirby over Kain
9) 23943 - Squall over Bomberman
10) 26709 - Luigi over Pac-Man

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 95122 - Tidus vs. Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 88953 - Cloud vs. Duke Milk'em
3) 87733 - Frog vs. Liquid Snake
4) 87557 - Ganondorf vs. Alucard
5) 84625 - Megaman vs. Earthworm Jim
6) 82798 - Kefka vs. Knuckles
7) 82369 - Link vs. CATS
8) 81310 - Zero vs. Protoman
9) 81137 - Squall vs. Bomberman
10) 80448 - Kirby vs. Kain

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 68808 - Vyse vs. Laharl
2) 70495 - Magus vs. Luca Blight
3) 72863 - Ness vs. Jak
4) 74383 - Bowser vs. Guybrush Threepwood
5) 75307 - Luigi vs. Pac-Man
6) 77021 - Master Cheif vs. Crash Bandicoot
7) 77860 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Max Payne
8) 78031 - Mario vs. J.C. Denton
9) 78608 - Yoshi vs. Ryo Hazuki
10) 78743 - Solid Snake over Tanner

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 74251 - Solid Snake
2) 72344 - Link
3) 71329 - Cloud
4) 70219 - Megaman
5) 65184 - Mario
6) 62375 - Crono
7) 61731 - Bowser
8) 60057 - Yoshi
9) 58317 - Zero
10) 57128 - Magus

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4492 - Tanner
2) 10025 - CATS
3) 12652 - Guybrush Threepwood
4) 12847 - J.C. Denton
5) 13367 - Luca Blight
6) 14406 - Earthworm Jim
7) 17605 - Conker
8) 17624 - Duke Milk'em
9) 18551 - Ryo Hazuki
10) 22552 - Crash Bandicoot

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 46788 - Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 43820 - Liquid Snake
3) 37512 - Alucard
4) 35220 - Lettuce Kefka
5) 32733 - Jak
6) 29621 - Max Payne
7) 28597 - Bomberman
8) 28436 - Kain
9) 27368 - Laharl
10) 24299 - Pac-Man

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 40130 - Ness
2) 41440 - Vyse
3) 43913 - Frog
4) 47578 - Knuckles
5) 48239 - Tommy Vercetti
6) 48334 - Tidus
7) 50045 - Ganondorf
8) 51008 - Luigi
9) 52012 - Kirby
10) 52540 - Squall

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 98.79% - Link over CATS
2) 98.28% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 97.97% - Cloud over Duke Milk'em
4) 97.47% - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
5) 97.27% - Solid Snake over Tanner
6) 95.00% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
7) 93.43% - Crono over Conker
8) 90.45% - Magus over Luca Blight
9) 86.41% - Zero over Protoman
10) 85.16% - Yoshi over Ryo Hazuki

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 43.05% - Knuckles over Kefka
2) 44.33% - Frog over Liquid Snake
3) 54.16% - Ness over Jak
4) 63.02% - Ganondorf over Alucard
5) 66.71% - Vyse over Laharl
6) 68.69% - Luigi over Pac-Man
7) 70.06% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
8) 74.21% - Kirby over Kain
9) 76.02% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne
10) 76.58% - Master Cheif over crash Bandicoot


---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

Midgar Division: Round 1 - Match 23 – (7)Vivi vs. (10)Donkey Kong

Vivi
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IX
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A

The black mage from FFIX enters the Contest. Black Mage = Instant Votes. TBMF, you know?

DK
Game/Series Known From: Mario Series/Donkey Kong Series
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 46th
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 29th
Seed in 2002: 4
Seed in 2003: 6
Lost in Sweet 16 to Mario in 2002 and to Tommy V. in Round 2 in 2003
Lost in 2002 to Mario in the Biggest Round 3 Blowout in Contest history.

Yes, I had to add that little fact about DK at the end. It’s just too funny. Losing 82-18 in Round 3 to Mario of all people. lol

Remember I said there were 3 cases in the Contest where I said I went with the Contest newbie over the Contest vet? Well, this is one of those times. Now, I can’t say much about Vivi, since the Mage is new the Contest. He is from an Final Fantasy game, and that’s bound to get him votes. He is also a Black Mage, and we love our Black Mages. Now FF9 might not be the most popular FF game, but like I said, the Final Fantasy name is what’s important. Now onto DK...oh lord.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=973

DK vs. Aya Brea. DK BARELY got past her, and then he went on to his Round 3 crucifixion. Vivi is no way, shape or form is weaker than Aya is. But then again, this is before DK moved up in the ranks, so let’s look at 2003.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1351

DK vs. Tommy V. DK is able to keep up most of the day until Vercetti pulls away later. Is Vivi stronger than Aya? Of course. Is Vercetti stronger than Vivi? Probably not. Think about a poll at GameFAQs between Vivi and Vercetti. Remember, this is GameFAQs. Vercetti gets the casual vote, Vivi gets the Square, Final Fantasy, RPG, and all those other votes. Even if Vercetti is stronger than Vivi, DK is still weaker than Vercetti.

That’s why I gave Vivi the nod here. Expect this to be as close as DK’s other close matches. I swear, that monkey. He either loses in a close match (DK vs. Vercetti), or wins in a close match (DK vs. Aya, DK vs. Duck Hunt) and gets slaughtered next round. (DK vs. Mario, DK vs. Legend of Zelda). So don’t fret Vivi fans if he loses this round.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Vivi will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Vivi 51% - DK 49%



Ulti’s Analysis

In 2002, Aya Brea, one of the weakest Square characters out there, took DK to the brink before DK finally managed to pull away and win the match.

That said, this match is very misleading when deciding who will win this thing. One, the vote totals for DK/Aya Brea were horrendous. If that exact match were held in 2003, DK would have won that match much easier. Another fun fact is that no character performed better against their 2002 numbers than Donkey Kong. Vivi may be a nice story, but where has he been for the last, oh, three contests? His absence until this year tells me that he was on the low end for Square nominations, which puts him on the level of a Kefka or a Yuna. For Vivi to be able to beat Donkey Kong, he has to be able to beat characters like Luigi, Jill Valentine, Kirby, and Knuckles in polls. I simply can't see this happening, and though we're going to get another close match from the big ape, I think he'll win it. Remember, he has yet to lose in the first round of any contest, and I'm willing to bet that he gets the majority of bracket voters on his side. No matter how popular Final Fantasy characters are, they never perform to the level of their leads, and I would take DK over Zidane in a second.

Ulti’s Bracket/Prediction - DK/DK with 50.25%
---
Mega Man vs. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Scorpian - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Scorp (20/21

Cena’s Analysis

Well I'm stumped. Vivi is the most popular FF9 character, hell, one of the most popular characters from the FF series. DK is just an ape with an attitude problem. But that's a good thing. That attitude will do him well against Vivi. I originally had him winning, because I didn't think Vivi was known enough to beat one of the mascots of all gaming. I mean, think about it and it seems like DK should win. But then I thought back to last year. DK lost to Tommy Vercetti. I mean, it was close but it was Tommy. I dunno about this one at all. It could go either way, really, because of DK's past. Just...wow.

Cena's Vote: Vivi (for the bracket only)

Cena's Prediction: It's a complete toss-up.
---
Mega Man vs. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Scorpian - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Scorp (20/21

So, what does this mean?

Massive SFF against Cloud?

That now, there's no way that Vivi can lose to DK?

Talk to me!
---
-Phediuk

i cannot believe Guybrush did so badly, hes a quality character
---
police toilet stolen, cops have nothing to go on
THE-KiRBY-ARMY<("<)<( " )> (>")> Member no.56

Vivi may be a nice story, but where has he been for the last, oh, three contests?

If memory serves correctly, the main focus of Square noms last year were for Kefka and Magus.

This year, the focus shifted to Frog and Vivi. The fact that neither of them got in last year doesn't automatically make them weak. Just look at Vincent, for God's sake.
---
-Phediuk

Furthermore, I'm afraid that I must disagree with Ulti's notion that Zidane would lose to DK. I can't see Zidane being that much weaker than Squall.
---
-Phediuk

"he's making Scorpion look worse than Tails"

I'm tellin' ya people, Tails got a rise out of 2k3 similar in manner to those of Pac and Crash. Mainstream fodder got a big boost and that is gone now.

In 2002, a 11-seeded Tails lost to a 6-seeded Alucard with about 46% of the votes. In 2003, a 3-seeded Kirby lost to a 6-seeded Alucard with about 48% of the votes. Could Tails be closer to Kirby than we think and we all just not realize it, regardless of this "mainstream fodder boost"? 9-seeded Tails got about 36% against 8-seeded Auron in 2003; that mainstream fodder boost didn't help him so much when the vote total was about 109,000, yet Tails held his own against Alucard in a match with about 62,000 total votes.

With the assumption that Viewtiful Joe is no Alucard (it's a good enough assumption, and he's certainly no Auron) and the total votes averaging closer to 80,000...then Auron's performance today of stomping Scorpion worse than he beat Tails (though Scorpion has likely fallen, to be fair), then Tails is lookin' pretty good to me right now.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

I'm doing alright at the moment, thanks to Ness.I'm one short of being perfect due to Shadow's demise.

I have had faith in DK for the past 2 years and the moment I turn against him, guys like Slowflake are expecting a DK win!

Well anyway, I still bet Vivi will win.
---
Supporting Nintendo for this year's Summer Contest!

Great to see all this Vivi bandwagoning...yep there is still room to hop aboard! :)

Course I believed in him all along...heck I nominated him! The ape will be revealed to be the midcarder he always was!

As for today, I proudly voted for Scorpion though my bracket of course said Auron. How could I not support my dearly beloved MK :)

313 perfects...might be 150 or so after DK falls...and lots of the 1 loss peeps will lose another so they will have 2 losses like me, so all in all, I aint worried yet...still lots of matches to be played out...
---
Steve Illumina: Official Satirical Commentator of SC2K4
Perfects to Fall: 313 SC2K4: 19/21 (Go Vivi!)

Assuming Scorpion stayed the same. You could just as easily assume Auron stayed the same and downgrade Scorpion. I think the difference is more weighted towards an Auron increase though, obviously because of possible SFF.

Of course, but I don't believe for a second that Scorpion stayed the same as he did last year. Reason being is that it would put him above Solid Snake. Odds are Scorpion dropped some and Auron suffered some SFF to push him up.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

As for Joe vs. Tails. Joe will still win that match, not worried at all.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

then Tails is lookin' pretty good to me right now.

It depends how close of a match you expected Joe to have with Tails. I, for one, never expected it to be close. Now, I'm expecting a closer match.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

When DK falls there will be very few perfect brackets left. =)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I've had Tails in my bracket the entire time, and I figured it'd be about 53-47 when I made that pick. Now, it's lookin' better, though I'm very certain that Tails won't go past 55% and it'd take alot for Tails to do that. I'm gonna say 54-46 right now.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

When DK falls there will be very few perfect brackets left. =)

No my friend, when DK wins there will be few perfects left. From what Ive seen, more people chose Vivi. Also, every FF character has been the overwhelming bracket favorite (Tidus was 70%, even Kefka for God's sake).

---
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Rogers Hornsby

Kefka being the favorite over Knuckles is a shame to be never mentioned again, however.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

No my friend, when DK wins there will be few perfects left.

Whoever wins (Vivi) there will be very few perfect brackets left. It's not one of those immediately obvious matches.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I've had Tails in my bracket the entire time, and I figured it'd be about 53-47 when I made that pick.

I've also had Joe in my bracket in the whole time and was expecting something of a 58-42 match, but obviously that would have to be lowered. Though I still like the fact Viewtiful Joe will be releasing for the PS2 in a couple of days.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Obviously... many perfects will fall after the match. However I guarantee Vivi was the bracket favorite.
---
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Rogers Hornsby

It wouldn't surprise me. He's the higher seed and from Final Fantasy, but I wouldn't suspect anything over 53%.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Stupid Ness.
---
*is tnote827*

There's a couple of ways of looking at this match:

All Scorp decrease:
Auron stays the same. Tails stays the same. Scorpion falls to 18.90% on Cloud, between Vyse and Issac. That's a decrease of 5.04% for Scorp.

All Auron/Cloud SFF:
Scorp stays the same. Auron skyrockets to 35.21% on Cloud, making him suffer 7.41% SFF against Cloud last year. This puts him between Solid Snake and Magus in the XS, and gives him 52.94% on Tidus. Tails goes up to 25.02% on Cloud, a 5.26% increase over 2k3 and a 4.28% increase over 2k2. That sticks him between Luigi and Scorpion in the XS.

And, of course, the most likely: a combination of the two. Couple of points of Auron/Cloud SFF, a couple of points decrease for Auron. By the way, this assumes a 66/34 split in favor of Auron.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

The only reason I can see for DK if he does turn out to be the favorite, is that he has been in the past Contests, and made it to Round 2 each time.

Vivi should still be the slight favorite though...
---
Mega Man vs. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Scorpian - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Scorp (20/21)

I think this will be the most evenly-predicted match yet; I don't expect either character to have more than 52% of the bracket-makers' support.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

I think DK will be the favorite, and it will be with at least 55% of the brackets. I mean, PacMan was favored over Kefka last year, so there is no reason whatsoever that DK shouldn't be favored over Vivi.
---
*is tnote827*

Vivi and Kefka are both in the Final Fantasy series this is true. Yet Vivi is from a PS1 Final Fantasy which makes him a bit different from Kefka. More like Squall than Kefka. Kefka is a bad example of Square because he isn't a very well liked character among most of the people who vote. (See Pac Man vs. Kefka) Kefka just isn't as likable as Sephiroth to the common voter. Kefka was just evil and we're talking evil and crazy. People like their evil to be "justifiable" it would seem. Or just greedy (Ganondorf)
---
See my writings at http://www.alexkaulfuss.com/ as the GrandioseGadfly
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Just wait for Dan Forden to wake up. His Toasty powers will close that 12,000 vote gap in a second.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Auron, tomorrow: DK - 17/21
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

Hmm, I wasn't expecting Auron to nearly double Scorpion. Oh well, it's more evidence that my new formula for the extrapolated standings is more accurate (though it was still off by a fair amount in this match).

I'm a little worried now that Tails might pull it off. I originally had him in my bracket (having never played VJ) but then switched to Joe based on the board's hearsay. How do Joe's sales numbers compare to those of Jak? This is another match just like Ness vs. Jak: weak vet versus untested newbie.
---
Contest status: 19/21 points.

Viewtiful Joe didn't sell very well on the GCN (200,000 copies in North America) and it is one of the reasons Capcom had to pull the plug on it being an exclusive for the GCN. Now, nearly a year later they are releasing it on the PS2 August 24th (three days before the match). Viewtiful Joe 2 will be out later on both the GCN and PS2 in November with rumors of Viewtiful Joe 3 being in the planning stages.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I just noticed, tomorrow is the first Nintendo vs. Square match of this contest.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Ouch. That makes Tails actually look decent (in comparing the match to Ness vs. Jak).
---
Contest status: 19/21 points.

I wouldn't say the sales of the game will reflect the strength of Joe. I'm honestly seeing him prove to be quite strong this first year, and then comeback and be even stronger next year. I'm very confident in Joe winning.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I think VJ will be a strong contender next year. This year, however, isn't his time I believe.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

I just noticed, tomorrow is the first Nintendo vs. Square match of this contest.

The series is tied 9-9 and the tie will be broken tomorrow. (Personally the 9-9 tie is controversial to me, because Square people beat up on Nintendo fodder several times.)
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 21/22 Next Pick: DK

Thanks for jumping on the Vivi bandwgon. Please keep your hands inside the vehicle at all times until we reach our destination....Victory.

You misspelled destruction. DK will set you up the bomb.

And I have no further comments on this match. You guys have impressively producd great discussion on why either could win....and you've beaten this match to death endlessly, and will probably continue to until 3AM. I look forward to this match...and GO DK!
---
GameFAQs can gain justice from this petition! Please visit it at http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=15656619 (951 Signs!)

The Black Mage is going to tear it up tomorrow.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Coming from the guy who instead of taking a risk by picking the guy he's named after to win the whole thing, he's taking someone else with equal strength to the guy he's named after.
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 21/22 Next Pick: DK

I don't think Mega Man will retain the same strength as 2003, while I do think Mario will have that same strength.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

The only half decent Nintendo characters Square defeated were, Samus, Ganondorf, Luigi, Bowser, Mario and Link

While the half decent Square characters Nintendo defeated were, Cloud, Crono, Sephiroth, Tidus, Magus, Squall and Crono again (You can include Aya if you want, but I'm not)

so really it like 7-6 Nintendo

Heck the weakest Square character we defeated was Ramza and he's okay
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Oh yeah! Well! You know what? You know what? ...yeah
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 21/22 Next Pick: DK

The Black Mage is going to tear it up tomorrow.

I wouldn't go that far, but yes, our friend the Black Mage shall be victorious. Auron is slaughtering Scorp, Kefka did way better than expeted, Tidus won a close match, Cloud, Crono, and Magus did what they were supposed to, and only Squall, who mysteriously faced 2k2 Bomberman, underperformed by much. Square characters are looking good thus far.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Well, I do expect it to be close but I'm just displaying the complete confidence in the little mage. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Oh, I forgot Frog. He won a close match, too. Stick him with Tidus.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

I'm not so sure that I buy Scorpion having a sizable decrease in popularity. After all, he's had Deadly Alliance to help him out and keep the series fresh on the voters' minds. Plus, Mortal Kombat did put up a respectable performance against Final Fantasy VI in the Spring Contest.

I think Cloud/Auron SFF seems like a more reasonable explanation. Question: If Tails had risen in equal proportion to Alucard (as in, he would do the same in 2003 as he did in 2002), where would that put him?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

The only reasonable explanation is that Auron increased some from Cloud/Auron SFF and that Scorpion decreased some from last year.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

But Scorpion has absolutely no reason to decrease.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

So you think Auron fits inbetween Magus and Solid Snake in the standings?
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

And Deadly Alliance is nearly two years old for crying out loud.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Holy ****!! I was one of the proponents for Cloud/Auron SFF, but even then I didn't think it would be this much.

Holy ****!!!! VJ comes out on PS2 in August?!!!! I thought it was September. Now I have no idea what to think about VJ/Tails.


Anyway, I have a theory about the new voting trends in this contest. I was thinking about it and I said to myself, "Self, why is it that some cultish characters like Alucard and Kefka* overperform whereas others like CATS, Ryo, and Guybrush stayed roughly the same? It certainly can't be related to any company ties because Auron increased while Tidus stayed the same."

And then it came to me. When we talk about cultish characters we talk about Luca, Laharl, Alucard and Ness as if they are all peas in the same pod, when they are not.

Say there was some random casual gamer that wanted to try to become "hardcore." They would have much easier access to say Earthbound and Symphony of the Night than they would Suikoden II and Monkey Island. I think that the increase of visitors that we experienced last year combined with the change in the placement of the poll has given us a rise in power of this group of people who I dub "hardcore casuals."

I'm not trying to say that these people are being posers or are being fake, I'm just trying to say that these people try to play the cultish games that are famous for well, being cultish and are readily available unlike Suikoden II. They would also tend to vote more with the unconventional characters in a game, ala the "fan-favorites" which could be the reason for Kefka and Auron's rises in popularity.

Anyway, that's my theory and I'm not entirely sure how it will play out in future matches, but...

*Even with SFF taken into account
---
"Destiny is a game, is it not? And now you await my latest move... "--Kain

Auron is doing better because of SBF or SUF. Take your pick.

Split bad-ass factor or Split undead factor
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

VJ comes out on PS2 in August?!!!!

August 24th. Three days before Joe vs. Tails.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

I already have V. Joe for PS2, BTW.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

What store decided to release it early? =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

So you think Auron fits inbetween Magus and Solid Snake in the standings?

It's not exactly impossible, especially if Auron is more popular than Tidus as was originally expected.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

It's not exactly impossible, especially if Auron is more popular than Tidus as was originally expected.

Yes, that seems very improbable to me. Auron passes nearly everyone up and could potentially beat Solid Snake. And to answer your question, there is plenty of reason for Scorpion to decrease from last year. Deadly Alliance isn't exactly fresh you know.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Bah, I didn't realize it was that old. A Scorpion decrease isn't out of the question, but I don't think it was anything big.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Alucard rose 4.86% between 2k2 and 2k3. I'm not sure if this is what you want, but if Tails performed the same way against Alucard in 2k3 as in 2k2, here's the numbers:

T/A in 2k2 * A/C in 2k3 / 50 = T/C
45.68 * 26.67 = 24.37

24.37% on Cloud puts Tails in between Luigi and Scorpion and is a 4.61% increase on Tails' 2k3 level and a 3.63% increase on his 2k2 value.

This new Tails value would give Auron 34.30% on Cloud and mean that he suffered 6.5% SFF on Cloud. It would also stick him between Solid Snake and Magus.

So, Tails increasing in proportion to Alucard doesn't make any more sense than a heavy Scorp decrease and is nearly identical to an all SFF theory.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Still place on the bandwagon? Hah, I wish. Brackets are locked, remember?

Or maybe I lied to you all along and actually picked Vivi... what if I did that? ;)
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

That'd be pretty funny and you'd stay perfect. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Or... what if Ulti did that? Methinks we may be losing Shadow Doom Blaze for the zeros...

Hey, usually, when I worry for a character in the light of a recent match, that character ends up winning anyway (see Tidus). That'd be cool to have two curses on me.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

I don't have any curses on me =(. Or at least none that I know of >.>
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

What's the problem with Auron being stronger than Magus? Before SC2K3, I would never have believed that Magus could beat Sonic, but he actually performed better than Sonic did. Considering Tidus' strength, Auron being this good isn't terribly surprising.

But it still isn't consequent with what he showed us last year. Not by a long shot.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Because Auron being stronger than Sonic as well doesn't make much sense, or even actually beating Solid Snake. When he was above 65.54% he was stronger than Solid.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Again, though, it was all under the assumption that Scorpion didn't decrease from last year.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

So...could Auron beat Tidus? I wonder...
---
Yuber lives in Pennslyvania...watching...

With the Auron increase, it is possible. Reverse SFF would be no more obviously expected then in Tidus/Auron.
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 21/22 Next Pick: DK

We may not even know this year... he's battling someone who, too, is suspected to have been hindered by SFF, then a fellow FF character.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

I think he'd stand a great chance at taking out Tidus, though it's tough to say this year.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Auron shall beat Sephiroth! No one shall stand in his way! AHAHAHAHA....

...I'll go now.
---
***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Contest Score: 20/21, Next Winner: Auron

I swear Ceej made this SFF ridden bracket just to screw with us. The rankings from this year will be terrible.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

Leonhart said:

But Scorpion has absolutely no reason to decrease.

sure he does. what about seriously decreased bracket support? if you remember, Scorpion was actually the FAVORITE last year against Zero with almost 53% of the brackets. now, i'd be willing to bet that he has 25% or fewer brackets predicting him. that's about 8000 brackets in favor of Scorpion instead of 21000 brackets. obviously, not everyone is a bracket-voter, but a difference of 13000 or more brackets could easily account for at least two or three percentage points.

Ulti said:

No matter how popular Final Fantasy characters are, they never perform to the level of their leads,

i've been saying for a while that it's very possible for a supporting character to do as well as the lead and i think Auron is doing a great job today of at least performing close to Tidus's level. not only that, but i'd bet that Kain from FF4 would do as well as Cecil. and even in FF6, it's debatable whether or not Terra is really the main character, but she often is accepted as the main character, and there's probably a few characters from FF6 that could perform as well as her. well, at least Shadow for sure. =P

so, yeah, i've been on board with Vivi since day one. i was one of the first to preach that Black Mage factor nonsense and i still think it can help Vivi. well, at least his job class recognition will help him more than name recognition. with Kefka's stunning performance, and also Ness and Auron doing much better than expected, things look better than ever for the supporting Black Mage. i really don't think he'll win by a huge margin, but i think Vivi can reach 55%.

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

Hmm, Scorp seems to be winning the day vote. Looks like he could bring Auron under 65%.
---
Mega Man vs. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Scorpian - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Scorp (20/21)

I'm expecting Auron to fall between 63-64% by the time the match is over.

Now, I'm 100% confident in my Vivi pick.
---
-Phediuk

Ah, I can't wait to see my bracket continue to flourish in green once Vivi wins. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Sigma Viruses don't die. They evolve.

Same here.
---
Mega Man vs. Jim - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Scorpian - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Scorp (20/21)

Green, green, green...Wait, that's not it...

Correct matches should be in blue, just so I have a reason to join the Happy Happy Cult. I could chant Blue all day.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

but i'd bet that Kain from FF4 would do as well as Cecil.

And you would lose the bet :P
---
Because how could I not do this forbidden thing, when it feels so good!

Auron is doing better because of SBF or SUF. Take your pick.

Can I choose option C, the KHF? Who knows, maybe this is one of the rare cases where the hype does matter.

but i'd bet that Kain from FF4 would do as well as Cecil.

And how, I can see Kain at least one full tier ahead of Cecil, as long as it's his full name on the poll.
---
The Besaid Aurochs are the worst of the best at blitzball. Now, can they beat the best of the worst? Find out at www.rpgdl.com

Argh...for the last time, I really bracket voting makes next to no difference! You know why? Let's see people bracket voted in Zero vs. Scorpion. Scorpion was only favored SLIGHTLY more than Zero, and you'd better believe that people bracket voted on both sides. That's almost equal bracket voting for Zero and Scorpion.

Of course, if Scorpion DID overperform against Zero (whether it's by bracket-voting or something else), then that would make a bit more sense in that Scorpion beat Pac-Man with only 58%. In fact, if you do that calculations, if Pac-Man's and Auron's 2003 values were accurate, and the Scorpion/Pac-Man ratio was the same as in 2002, that Auron would be expected to beat Scorpion with 67.5%. Of course, that would mean Scorpion would've had to overperform TWO years in a row, which is not likely. Wow...there's so many other things I could experiment with, but I'll refrain from those.

Also, I don't see what the big problem is with Auron facing Sephiroth. I would imagine that SFF would behave very similarly between Auron vs. Cloud and Auron vs. Sephiroth. So...if Auron doesn't do much better against Sephiroth than against Cloud (or perform as expected against a stronger/weaker Sephiroth with the expected amount of Cloud/Auron SFF), we could safely assume that Auron didn't change in popularity.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

RPGuy96:
I swear Ceej made this SFF ridden bracket just to screw with us. The rankings from this year will be terrible.

Yeah. As I said before, we're not going to have any real idea of how much Ness and Auron suffered from SFF last year, because of the Auron vs. Sephiroth match.

Below is a range of possibilities of how much Ness will receive against Auron with varying assumptions. Auron (Increased) means that Auron's strength is calculated assuming that Scorpion was unchanged, and that he got 65% on Scorpion--thus putting him at 35.34% against Link instead of 28.73%. Ness (Increased) assumes that Ness suffered huge SFF against Bowser and thus increased 60%--from 15.44% to 24.7%.

Estimates for Ness' % against Auron:
Auron '03 vs. Ness '03: 26.87%
Auron (Increased) vs. Ness '03: 21.8%
Auron '03 vs. Ness (Increased): 43%
Auron (Increased) vs. Ness (Increased): 34.95%

As you can see, there is a huge range of possibilities here, and due to there being at least two factors, we can't isolate what might cause what.

If Auron wasn't going to have another possible SFF match, we could perhaps isolate how Auron and Ness stand. But since he is facing Sephiroth, the only thing we can do is estimate Auron vs. Sephiroth SFF to be the same as Auron vs. Cloud SFF...but we can only estimate the latter to begin with.


Slowflake:
You seem to be insistent that Black Mage Factor only helps Vivi because of 8 Bit Theater. I gotta ask though, what the hell does Black Mage Factor have to do with 8BT?! Black Mage Factor helps Vivi because a large portion of the Final Fantasy fanbase will probably vote for him because of it, not because of maybe a couple hundred votes extra from 8BT fans.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

would imagine that SFF would behave very similarly between Auron vs. Cloud and Auron vs. Sephiroth.

This is what I just said too, but there's another problem--Auron and Cloud are both heroes. Sephiroth is a villain. Perhaps the hero/villain fanbases differ somewhat.

We might get a better idea after Magus vs. Crono and Ganon vs. Link (though IMO the latter is much more likely to have SFF). The only hero vs. villain match we've seen so far is Cloud vs. Sephiroth, and that had no SFF--but of course, they were on a similar level; Auron is much lower than both (though perhaps not as far below as we originally thought).
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Ack, maybe you're right about SFF being different due Sephiroth being a villain...I hope not. I guess we're just going to have to "feel" our away around the SFF to try and estimate the actual values of those characters. I'm not sure if the other SFF matches will help, as I'd think SFF would affect Link vs. Ganondorf more drastically than Mario vs. Bowser.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

"If that exact match were held in 2003, DK would have won that match much easier."

Too bad the voting pool rflects more upon 2k2 than 2k3 this year.

"three contests?"

He only sat out two contests, man. The first didn't have a real nomination system and the second he just wasn't pushed as much. Remember, Vivi didn't just get in this time, he got in with the cap.

"he has to be able to beat characters like Luigi, Jill Valentine, Kirby, and Knuckles in polls"

Considering that something has happened to Luigi and the rest of those characters can beat DK I'd have to say no, Vivi doesn't have to beat any of them. DK isn't a cluth player, he tends to drop the ball when it gets too close, so if Vivi is halfway between Jill and DK in 2k3 stats then Vivi has it.

"and I would take DK over Zidane in a second."

I might too, what's that got to do with Vivi? Have you not seen what Auron is doing right now? He's doing 2% better than Tidus is expected to do, and we have yet to return to the night vote which clearly favors Auron. Auron is without doubt on Tidus' level and could even be slightly higher.

"If memory serves correctly, the main focus of Square noms last year were for Kefka and Magus."

Your memories serve you well. I was one of the few people who nominated Vivi last year and there just wasn't a push for him. Once the 2k3 bracket came up THEN people started talking about Vivi. Vivi made it even with the cap, that counts for something.

" 9-seeded Tails got about 36% against 8-seeded Auron in 2003; that mainstream fodder boost didn't help him so much when the vote total was about 109,000,"

Um, have you seen what Auron is doing right now? He's curently outperforming Tidus 2k3 who would have gotten just over 70% on Tails. Believe me, something helped Tails out last year but wasn't there for him the year before. The same can be said of Crash and Pac-Man. All three apparently over-performed in 2k3, and of the two that have gone up this year both have dropped back to 2k2 levels. Coincidence? I don't think so.

"Tails is lookin' pretty good to me right now."

Because you're looking at it wrong.

"Well anyway, I still bet Vivi will win."

It's a good bet.

"Course I believed in him all along...heck I nominated him!"

Same here

"Of course, but I don't believe for a second that Scorpion stayed the same as he did last year"

That's fair to say, I'd put him in the same group as Crash etc. He did rise in 2k3 and he is showing more weakness now than ever before. I would, however, take him out of that group if I wasn't too lazy to find out when MK:DA came out. Still, Auron is up so high that it can't be a natural drop for Scorp, most of it is Auron.

"Joe will still win that match, not worried at all."

Me either.

"Now, I'm expecting a closer match."

I'm seeing the opposite.

"When DK falls there will be very few perfect brackets left. =)"

You and me, buddy, you and me. Okay, there are liek 3 gurus with the exact same bracket as me, so it'll be more than the two of us, but it'll drop nicely.

"Now, it's lookin' better,"

Yeah, because Viewtiful Joe isn't hitting the PS2 what, day after tomorrow? That makes Tails look reeeeeeeeeal good...

"No my friend, when DK wins there will be few perfects left. From what Ive seen, more people chose Vivi."

One, DK isn't going to win. Two, that's only the boards that favor Vivi so heavily. General brackets will be much more split, I see a % drop roughly the same as Ness/Jak.

"How do Joe's sales numbers compare to those of Jak?"

Oh, Jak sold like 10 times as much... which really put him over Ness. Thank god sales numbers indicate who will win their match. I mean, heck, Viewtiful Joe barely sold more than Earthbound, I'm sure, so Joe is as doomed as Ness.

"DK will set you up the bomb."

Spoken like a true Nintendo fanboy with no clue.

"I don't think Mega Man will retain the same strength as 2003"

I actually do think MM will be up, but I don't think he'll be up by that much. And besides, statistical evidence has always had MM above Mario, so swirl hasn't got any ground to stand on.

"who mysteriously faced 2k2 Bomberman"

Oh fine, don't listen to me. Suuuuure, I sound crazy, but I'm not. I may very well be right, you know.

"So you think Auron fits inbetween Magus and Solid Snake in the standings?"

I think Tidus and Auron clearly belong side by side.

"Or maybe I lied to you all along and actually picked Vivi... what if I did that? ;)"

You'd be a ****ing genius!

"So...could Auron beat Tidus? I wonder..."

I'm callign it dead even for now. Auron takes the advantage after KH2 is realesed.

"I'm expecting Auron to fall between 63-64% by the time the match is over."

Don't count on it. He's still got the night vote going for him.

"Can I choose option C, the KHF?"

No.

"as long as it's his full name on the poll."

What we need is for people to put his full name in their nominations so that Ceej doesn't think that they mean the other Kain.

"And you would lose the bet :P"

Prove it. There's no evidence to say that a fan favorite can't be stronger than a lead. And in an old RPG like that I'd be willing to bet that there are less casual fans meaning more hardcore fans (obviously) which indicates that fanfavorties would get more respect.

"That's almost equal bracket voting for Zero and Scorpion."

Outwieghed by casual votes. When the brackets are that close they can't have much effect, especially since the number of casual votes is so overwhelming.

"we could safely assume that Auron didn't change in popularity."

Right, and Scoprion took a nose dive to the bottom of the brackets for no reason. I could see him dropping 3%, tops, but not this. No way, no how. No one has ever dropped like that, and some characters have had better reason to than Scorpion.

"As I said before, we're not going to have any real idea of how much Ness and Auron suffered from SFF last year,"

Treat Scorpion as 2k2 Scorpion, thus assuming his Dark Alliance boost had worn off and he returned to his "non-fresh" levels and the bam, perfect yard stick. There's no reason for him to drop below 2k2 levels. In 2k2 he didn't have DA and hadn't had a game in years, and not even a good one sicne the SNES days. He can't possibly get any weaker than 2k2. If he didn't drop to his lowest point then that just means Auron is alittle bit stronger than expected, but at least this way we can't overrate Auron, Ness, or Jak.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Creative, do you have a particular logic behind saying Ness increased by 60% or is that just an arbitrary number?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Creative, do you have a particular logic behind saying Ness increased by 60% or is that just an arbitrary number?

Totally arbitrary. I wanted to use a liberal estimate, not quite DK level (87%) but up there. That's also the number I used for the SFF-adjusted Spring standings. I asked if people had any suggestions on what I should use for those, but no one spoke up, so...<shrugs> 60% seems like as decent a number as any. I'd guess that any SFF Ness suffered would probably be less than that, but again, I wanted to use a liberal value.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

The CN, I'm still saying, you should just assume Scorp is at his 2k2 level then do the math. That's as close to accurate as you can get.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I just realized that I have Sora > Jill for the Ryu/Jill/Sora/HK-47 foursome >_>
---
God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. - cyko
Summer Contest 2004: 16/17

The CN, I'm still saying, you should just assume Scorp is at his 2k2 level then do the math. That's as close to accurate as you can get.

That might be best, but we still wouldn't have very much confidence in the numbers. And it would barely make any difference--Scorpion didn't change much from 2K2 to 2K3.

Still, here's how it works out: assuming Auron=65% on Scorpion 2K2, that puts Auron at 34.31% against Link, right at Shadow's 2K3 level (instead of between Magus and Snake). It puts him at 34.17% against Cloud rather than the 27.8% he got.

Again, this isn't much different from assuming Scorpion stayed the same.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Scorp 2k2 against Link is 24.02%, and 2k3 is 24.74%. It's not going to make much of a difference, but I'll do it anyway because I'm bored. I'm using 65/35 for Scorp/Auron.

...I take that back. It made a percent worth of difference, which is all it really needed to. If Scorp fell a little between 2k2 and 2k4, this match makes even more sense.

Using Scorp 2k3, Auron gets 35.34% on Link and is between Snake and Magus. Using Scorp 2k2, Auron gets 34.31% on Link and falls, you guessed it, right above Shadow and Tidus. And even if Scorp fell just 2% between 2k2 and 2k4, Auron ends up between Squall and Aeris with 31.46% on Link.

Personally, I think using a slightly decreased Scorpion to give Auron about 31.5% on Link and 30.5% on Cloud makes the most sense. MK has been overshadowed by other fighting games for years now, and that leaves only about 2.7% of Cloud/Auron SFF, which sounds reasonable to me.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

"Using Scorp 2k2, Auron gets 34.31% on Link and falls, you guessed it, right above Shadow and Tidus."

Wow, sounds highly plausible to me.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Falling in the area of Shadow/Tidus is far more reasonable than Magus/Snake.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

BTW, using Scorp 2K2 would put Auron at 34.5% against Sephiroth (2K3 Scorp puts him at about 35.5%). My Oracle guess for that match will probably be around 30%.


I just realized how incredibly up in the air Cloud vs. Sephiroth is going to be...we get virtually no input into that match before it actually happens. People have been talking about how there can't be a real favorite in Cloud vs. Link until the Final Four, but we probably won't have much idea on Cloud vs. Sephiroth either until the match happens.

Sephiroth vs. Sly Cooper tells us little, and then he probably faces Vivi and Auron, two possible SFF matches. Cloud faces Vyse, which might tell us something (probably not much), then another SFF match in Squall.

If DK beats Vivi we might be able to make some comparison between Cloud and Sephiroth--they'd be facing DK and Vyse in the 2nd round, who faced each other last year. And Kirby winning would also likely make things clearer.

Really though, there probably won't be much to give insight into how Cloud and Sephiroth's relative strengths have changed until they face each other.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

And besides, statistical evidence has always had MM above Mario, so swirl hasn't got any ground to stand on.

Don't stress over it Chichi, that was a joke.
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 21/22 Next Pick: DK

"If DK beats Vivi we might be able to make some comparison between Cloud and Sephiroth"

Damn, it's such a shame that it will remain pretty much up in the air until it actually happens. There's always Vyse though.

"and you go and say this"

Sure, why not? Even consider that this year is more like 2k2 than 2k3 then there may be a larger game between MM and Mario than last year. Just sayin'.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

And I was just saying I wasn't starting a discussion. Mario probably wouldn't beat Megaman *on this site.

*But he'd beat Mega on a ton of other ones.
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 21/22 Next Pick: DK

Both of them would do greatly on other sites.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

Oh yeah, and Vivi is gonna win tomorrow. Sorry you're all missing out on the point, for those who disagree, but I really tried to warn you all long ago.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I got warned a million times that Shadow and Jak were going to win, as well.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Indeed, Chichiri. I look forward to both of us picking up that point tomorrow and getting on the leaderboard. ;)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

"I got warned a million times that Shadow and Jak were going to win, as well."

Not by me ;)
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Not by you, of course. But if I took all the warnings I got seriously, I'd finish with a perfect zero.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

"Indeed, Chichiri. I look forward to both of us picking up that point tomorrow and getting on the leaderboard. ;)"

As it stands I'm deciding how much to gloat. Like, more than Vivi would feel appropriate because I'm on a longer streak, but then again less people seem to be talking about the match....

Of course a couple of the local big boys are gonna miss by picking DK, so it's an opportunity to remind everyone that I'm not just here wasting space (though I do plenty of that too) AND my bracket automatically wins over Ulti.

*sighs*

It's tough, because I don't want to sound like too much of an arrogant bastard when I win... but I am on a damn good streak (winning and arrogance, which are more related than you all suspect).


Anyway, my endless confidence spells victory.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"Not by you, of course."

That's the thing, you were obviously hearing people that didn't know as much as you or I :)

"But if I took all the warnings I got seriously, I'd finish with a perfect zero."

Were people actually warning about Tanner over Snake? That'd be odd...

Anyway, again, it's not every warning, it's mine, and that actually means something :)
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

So, that match was the only difference you had with Ulti?

If so, if Mario beats Crono I'm still beating you by three points...
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Well, yeah, because you're clearly losing a point tomorrow. But Mario isn't going to beat Crono either, so it's okay.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I've got four differences with him. Two of them being in the Final Four and Finals.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

Just act like you would normally. I have a perfect streak as well, but none of these matches are exactly hard... Just a few that could be considered difficult. I never doubted any of my picks, even if I thought they would be very close.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"Just act like you would normally."

Dance naked in the streets then cast the replies that make the gurus who picked DK fall down?

Done deal.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

The only one I doubted so far was Ness.

Now, the next division is giving me the chills. Three tough matches, one worth three points.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Three tough matches? I see only one.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

And I don't see any that rate on the same level as we've had so far. Nope, nothing in chaos to worry about, except the idea of Samus as division champ which is just plain strange.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Yeah, Samus in the Final 4 struck me as odd, which was in my "first impressions" list IIRC.

The three matches are Joe/Tails, Sora/HK-47 and Hayabusa/Jill. The first has been totally revitalized with today's match, Sora could have not even have been victim of SFF, in which case we could see a heart-stopper, and the last one's been beaten to death.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

Sora vs. HK-47 is not up in the air. It'll just be Vyse-Laharl part II. Honestly, do you think HK-47 could be as strong as Ken Masters? 'Cause I sure don't.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

The only one of those I see a problem with is Hayabusa vs. Jill.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

From that perspective, yeah it's not too bad.

I'll make a confession... I had KOTOR beating Vice City the first day the brackets were out this spring. Geesh.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

On a side note, this poll has already broken 80,000 with over 4 hours left. It should challenge Tidus-Shadow for the most popular poll in the contest so far.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

I don't think Tails can win. Looking at Auron we know Tails was stronger in 2k3 than 2k2. Almost every character in the lower ranks that went up in 2k3 has gone back down in 2k4. No reason for that to change, especially not with VJ hitting the PS2 3 days before the match.

And even if Sora didn't get any SFF, which at this point would look irregular, it's not like he's set to lose. While games =/= character I still think there's enough room between KH and KotOR to insure a victory in favor of Sora.

Games =/= characters, but there IS a noticable correlation, and when there is a significant difference there is also a logical reason behind it.

And Ryu H vs. Jill.. I don't see why Jill would win. The nomination system is at least fixed well enough that a 3 seed has to be a midcarder at worst. Luigi, MC, Kirby, and Vercetti last year... eh? Well, they were all really close to Jill. So far this year MC held his seed and looks better than last year, raw numbers-wise. Luigi dropped one and looks better than ever. Vercetti dropped two and it shows. Kirby also dropped 2 and looks the same.

Who else happens to have earned 3s this year? Auron and Crono.

It may just me thinkin' crazy again, but I'm of the opinion that maybe, just maybe, a 3 seed actually means something for a change. Sure, MC got over seeded again, but we know damn well why. I think Ryu H will do as a 3 seed should. No trouble.


So why all the worry, guys?
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I'm confident in having a perfect first round, myself.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters; the fighting king clothed in blazing fire.

If I miss the perfect first round for one match, I'm gonna cry. Last year's 30/32 wasn't a tragedy, but this...
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

It's tough, because I don't want to sound like too much of an arrogant bastard when I win... but I am on a damn good streak (winning and arrogance, which are more related than you all suspect).

Anyway, my endless confidence spells victory.

...dammit all.

i was looking forward to seeing that arrogant ulti finally get his comeuppance...
...but now i've got that arrogant chichiri rooting for the other side.

you have ruined all things contest for me.
---
redline15: sarcastic lurker

I already F'ed up. I'm so embarassed I won't even post my score in my profile. I really knew Ness was going to win why did I doubt it... damn.
---
See my writings at http://www.alexkaulfuss.com as the GrandioseGadfly
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

A perfect first round is likely now. Tails just got a whole lot more reliable. And unless I get seriously f-ed in the a with my upsets, I should have a solid bracket.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Joe and Tails will be the first nail-biter of the tournament. Mark my words, it'll be 50.5 to 49.5. With Joe coming out on top, of course.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 021/021 - Matches: 21/21 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: DK

First? Forget about Frog-Liquid so soon?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
Bomberman's status: Blown Away

Profile? Man I just had a momentary lapse of where I was writing. It's all the same now, creepy. I meant sig.
---
See my writings at http://www.alexkaulfuss.com as the GrandioseGadfly
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

"i was looking forward to seeing that arrogant ulti finally get his comeuppance..."

You're going to jump all over him for the one mistake he's going to make in the whole tournament? Man, you're a jerk. But hey, at least you get your one and only chance. How many will we get on you, 10... 15 maybe?

See now, I was just being arrogant, but if you wanna be an ass I can be an ass too.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Something tells me this place will be very stinky by the time this contest ends.

<_<

What?
---
Summer Contest Match 22 Auron vs. Scorpion
Status 20/22 Points: 020 Next: Vivi vs. DK

actually, i'm a lot more confident in my bracket than ulti's.

...that's why i've never posted it.

...and never will.
---
redline15: this guy are sick

The thing about Tails is, Alucard went from from 2K2 to 2K3 by an amout very similar to the amount Auron is "overperforming" by against Scorpion today.

Alucard went up 21.41% from 2K2 to 2K3. Increase Auron 2K3 by that amount, keep Scorpion the same, and you have Auron winning with about 64.54%.

So maybe Alucard didn't increase...but was just underestimated, for whatever reason, in 2K2. That would mean Tails was also underestimated in 2K2.

And if Auron suffered SFF in 2K3 (which looks likely right now), Tails 2K3 also goes up.

So...maybe Tails was underestimated both years (Slowflake already mentioned this possibility). Maybe Tails is right around Scorpion's level.

As for why him and Alucard would be underestimated in 2K2...maybe Mario overperformed against Cloud. I don't now about that--I think he might've by a little bit, but not by nearly that much. Also, Pikachu's, Duke's, and Fox's changes don't mesh with this idea. But whatever the explanation, there is the chance that Tails was stronger both years than the standings say.


As for the other debated matches: I don't think Sora vs. HK-47 is up in the air--I just can't see HK-47 being anything but a real jobber.

And I'm also still very, very confident Ryu Haybusa will beat Jill, even if it isn't beyond all doubt.

But Tails vs. Joe, which I was fairly confident of before, isn't really a guaranteed victory for Joe. I still think Joe will win, but it's not for sure, and I'm somewhat worried about it (bracket-wise--I wouldn't at all mind Tails winning).
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Hey Heroic Mario, early on you were one of the staunchest backers of Jak, along with me (though I lost some confidence in him later).

What happened? You picked Ness in the Oracle challege, and looks like you had him in your bracket as well. I'm surprised, because you were so vocal in favor of Jak before.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

"maybe Mario overperformed against Cloud."

Who would suggest somehting so rediculous?!

Oh wait, me.

Sure, I overstated the fact to imply the biggest possible outcome, but when you're going out on a limb why be conservative about it? If it break it breaks, and even if you catch yourself a little you're still gonna get hurt on the way down.

"I'm surprised, because you were so vocal in favor of Jak before."

He actually likes Jak. He was just wise enough to know the winner.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

He said he changed his winner because of a debate about it with you.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

"Also, Pikachu's, Duke's, and Fox's changes don't mesh with this idea."

SFF, PC characters =/= mainstream, especially not on GameFAQs, SFF.

Wow, problem solved!
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

...and I officially cannot win the contest. Yay! You intelligent bastards.
---
...and it begins! 191/192 (stupid Ness) Next tough match: VIVI vs. Donkey Kong

Well, creativename pretty much said what I was going to to say about Tails, so um. . .nevermind.
---
"Killing Metalheads, getting free stuff. It's all good."--Jak

"...and I officially cannot win the contest. Yay! You intelligent bastards."

I'm not sure why you can't win but... better luck next time.

Oh and thank you for recognizing my intelligence, my bastardliness (if Shakespeare can make up words so can I), and for congratulating me on my inevitable win.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

so far so good
---
RoXxOrZ!

Sora vs. HK-47 is not up in the air. It'll just be Vyse-Laharl part II. Honestly, do you think HK-47 could be as strong as Ken Masters? 'Cause I sure don't.

...Would I be a bad person if this statement made me think Sora/HK-47 will be alot closer than expected? No nail-biter by any means, but I think HK-47 could beat Ken.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Well my bracket is identical to Ulti's except for Jak and Vivi. And yours is apparently identical to his except for Vivi, which means we only differ on Ness/Jak... and I lost. Ergo, better luck next time T-Note. Drat.
---
...and it begins! 191/192 (stupid Ness) Next tough match: VIVI vs. Donkey Kong

"but I think HK-47 could beat Ken."

have you ever been tarred and feathered?
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Chi, you are just a real ball of sunshine today, aren't ya? I think you will be borderline unbearable when Vivi wins tomorrow... but I mean, I will survive, cauz that means I will only miss one point ever! <Sarcasm'd>
---
...and it begins! 191/192 (stupid Ness) Next tough match: VIVI vs. Donkey Kong

"I think you will be borderline unbearable when Vivi wins tomorrow... "

You think I'd stop at bordeline? :)

I mean, hell, Vivi is going to win tomorrow, I gotta make the most of it.

And yeah, then you'd only miss one point, so you could still make op 50 when my perfect bracket fights it out for prizes.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

And yeah, then you'd only miss one point, so you could still make op 50 when my perfect bracket fights it out for prizes.

Oh? You have Sephiroth winning, too?
---
***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Contest Score: 20/21, Next Winner: Auron

have you ever been tarred and feathered?

Not since the days of thinkin' Master Chief would beat Aeris and Sonic would beat Cloud. =P My thought still stands, however.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Tails/Joe: While I picked Joe to beat Dante *chalk this up to temporary inanity as I bought into Joe hype*, I think even Disgaea sold more copies then Viewtiful Joe. If Tails loses, it's the Viewtiful Joe release the day before the match.

Sora/HK-47: Going by the extrapolateds, I think that KOTOR > KH on the site. While generally side kicks aren't stronger then mains, Sora isn't exactly a strong character. The KHF may have introduced more people to FF characters, but I don't think that Sora himself is that powerful. HK has the robot factor, the Star Wars factor, and he's loved by KOTOR fans, of which there are many counting people with X-Boxs and PCs. This match is hard to call, but neither side has a clear advantage.

Ryu/Jill: Jill has no chance. Jill is a fading icon, whose only real hype would come from the RE movie coming up. Ryu is a old-school icon who has recently been reintroduced to a whole new group of people, has the fighting genre behind him with his appearances in the DoA series, and most importantly, he's a Ninja. The Ninja Factor will bring out LUE, and that is more then enough to get past Jill.

"Oh? You have Sephiroth winning, too?"

As a matter of fact...
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Sora/HK-47: Going by the extrapolateds, I think that KOTOR > KH on the site.

Ahem, whoa. No.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Yeah, slow down there. KH would beat KOTOR with just about 60%. Add in the fact that HK-47 isn't required (I'm 8 hours into KOTOR and have yet to even hear of him) and Sora probably suffered SFF against Aeris (if Kefka and Auron can, Sora can), and you have a match that's easy to call in Sora's favor.
---
Current Pick: Auron; Current Vote: Auron; Points: 21/21
VIVI IS THE BLACK MAGE! HE CASTS THE SPELLS THAT MAKES THE MONKEYS FALL DOWN!

So uh, yeah, Vivi victory countdown... approximately 2 hours 15 minutes.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Match XXI: (6) Ness vs. (11) Jak Review

Ness beat Jak, 55.08% - 44.92%

Well I’ve suffered my second lose in the same division and I’ve picked the lower seeds to win too. Well I guess I either overestimated Jak’s strength or underestimated Ness’ SFF against Bowser. Well I think it could be either one. Not much to talk about this match either that it wasn’t as close as we all thought and about 50% of the brackets predicted this match right, so I guess it was an okay lose for me. Well let’s hope that Vivi vs. Donkey Kong lives up to it’s hype and me finally getting a “close” match right in this division first round. Also I think that we should give Jak the Gordon Freeman award this year. What do you think?

---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Match XXIII: (7) Vivi vs. (10) Donkey Kong Preview

Past Performances:

Vivi: 2002

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Vivi: 2003

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Donkey Kong: 2002

Defeated Bub, 61.96% - 38.04%
Defeated Aya, 51.06% - 48.94%
Lost to Mario, 18.02% - 81.98%
Ranked: 46th

Donkey Kong: 2003

Defeated Vyse, 62.42% - 37.58%
Lost to Tommy Vercetti, 49.52% - 50.48%
Ranked: 29th

Analysis:

Vivi is from Final Fantasy IX. Vivi is another new character to join us this summer. Vivi looks like a Black Mage from various Final Fantasy, but I really don’t believe in the Black Mage Factor that people have been saying. Final Fantasy IX though is one of those lesser known Final Fantasy’s like VIII or X. There have been a lot of mixed feelings for Vivi from Vivi easily winning his first match to losing badly in his first match. Though to many people this is going to be a close match, whether you have Vivi or Donkey Kong winning and the prize for wining is... to be destroyed by Sephiroth in round 2.

Donkey Kong is from the Donkey Kong series. Can Donkey Kong ever have a match where he doesn’t give someone a heart attack? I guess not in 2002 he won with a close match against Aya, in 2003 he lost in a close match with Tommy Vercetti and even with the game contest he had a very close match against Duck Hunt and this year it doesn’t look like it’s going to be any different. In 2002 Donkey Kong got hit with the biggest SFF ever to be in these contests against Mario making him very, very weak. In 2003 he was in the only close match where he lost against Tommy Vercetti who really didn’t live up to his hype to defeat Mega Man. But the question will Donkey Kong lose to a blowout like in 2002 or in a close match like in 2003?

Well this is the third and final close match in this first round of the division and like the other two I’ve picked the lower seed to win. Let’s just hope the result won’t be like them and plus third times a charm, I hope. Well here we have the fan favorite Vivi going against the fading star Donkey Kong, though by next year he should go up in popularity with new games coming out. Though this is this year and those don’t matter.

Well first probably the biggest reason why people say that Vivi would win is because of the BMF. I would like to say that, that is a load of **** and it isn’t really a factor at all. Sure Vivi may get the odd 2 votes because of that, but that’s not going to make him win. That’s like saying that TJF will make KOS-MOS beat Ryu or something. If Vivi was to win it wouldn’t be because of the BMF though most people would probably believe it’s true.

Final Fantasy IX, the game where Vivi came from, came out at the worst time for the Playstation. It came out after the Playstation 2 came out so the game itself took a hard hit, selling less then most Final Fantasy’s at the time, even Final Fantasy VIII sold more. I know games =/= characters, but it is worth mentioning. The only thing that saved it from being even worse that you could also play it on the Playstaion 2.

Also if you look at the performances of past characters things also don’t look really good for Vivi. Most of you would agree that the pre-Kingdom Hearts Squall > Vivi at GameFAQs yet Donkey Kong would still be able to beat him and if you think that Vivi is the Auron of Final Fantasy X well Vivi will end up losing by much more. So if you think the performances of other Final Fantasy characters will save him you better watch out.

Another thing that’s keeping people from choosing Donkey Kong over Vivi is his match against Aya. First I can say that was a fluke match and now I would believe that Donkey Kong would beat her by more. Also like other characters Aya could be underestimated by us as well, but I don’t think people should really use that match as a reason since it was also in 2002 and we all know how **** up the matches were.

Well those are my big reasons why Donkey Kong would beat Vivi, I’ve got more, but I don’t have the time to explain them all. Though either way this match goes I think most of us can agree that this match will be a Donkey Kong heart-attack match like he’s done in the past three contests. Also for people who think Donkey Kong is fading just remember Donkey Kong as also reached legend status and like most legends they don’t usually go down.

Charmander’s Bracket: Donkey Kong

Charmander’s Prediction: Donkey Kong wins, 50.87% - 49.13%
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"Final Fantasy IX though is one of those lesser known Final Fantasy’s like VIII or X."

Yeah, statements liek that will inspire confidence in the DK backers.

"Let’s just hope the result won’t be like them and plus third times a charm, I hope."

As someone said when HM started up Earthbound for the fourth time, the third time supporters are overly vocal and not at all correct. Fourth time is the charm... got Sly over Seph?

"I would like to say that, that is a load of **** and it isn’t really a factor at all."

Of course not, Vivi doesn;t need such things to beat DK.

"Sure Vivi may get the odd 2 votes because of that, but that’s not going to make him win."

It may not be a factor, but it'd be worth more than 2 votes. Try adding two zeros at the end there.

"It came out after the Playstation 2 came out so the game itself took a hard hit, "

Yeha, because PS2 had the best launch lineup in the history of gaming AND it's not at all backwards compatible.

"The only thing that saved it from being even worse that you could also play it on the Playstaion 2."

Or the fact that basically nobody could get a PS2 that winter unless they preordered it like a year earlier. Most people still had PSX at the time, in fact I didn't know a single person who had ps2 yet, and as we both know the ps2 is backwards compatible.

"and if you think that Vivi is the Auron of Final Fantasy X well Vivi will end up losing by much more."

I think you're tring to say that Vivi is the fan favorite, and because of that, like Auron, he's not as strong as the lead. Evidence now suggests otherwise.

"First I can say that was a fluke match "

Proof?

"and now I would believe that Donkey Kong would beat her by more"

Evidence?

"since it was also in 2002 and we all know how **** up the matches were."

Any sort of valid reasoning at all?

Give me sometihng worth arguing with goddammit. I can comment, but you don't actually provide any real reasoning, evidence, or speculative theory. You jus tlay it all out there without a damn thing to back it up.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Final Fantasy IX though is one of those lesser known Final Fantasy’s like VIII or X.

Huh? Along with VI and VII, VIII and X are the best known Final Fantasies.

even Final Fantasy VIII sold more

VIII was the best-selling Final Fantasy for a time, before VII caught up and passed it again. It's still only slightly behind FF7 in sales.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

meh I do these previews to keep me awake anyways
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

That's a bad way of thinking about it. You should be doing them to entertain me. Now make some crap up so I can tell you how wrong you are!
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

opps that should've said unlike
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Yeha, because PS2 had the best launch lineup in the history of gaming AND it's not at all backwards compatible.

Coming out when it did, did hurt Final Fantasy IX a lot though. Both in terms of sales and memorability.

And PS2 did have one perhaps the most successful launch ever. Though it would've been a lot more successful if they had produced more units...not like they didn't sell them eventually though anyway.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

one question

who would win (without SFF)

pre-KH Squall or Vivi
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"And PS2 did have one perhaps the most successful launch ever."

Yet every game sucked ass.



And Vivi would win that, no trouble.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Really? I don't see Vivi getting 35% against Solid Snake
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Oh, and Char... sales mean nothing. Look at Alucard, look at KOS-MOS. Neither of their games topped a million. If game sales matter for an ounce of strength then Vivi has more than those two combined.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"Really? I don't see Vivi getting 35% against Solid Snake"

Yeah, but you're not exactly on the best of streaks either.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I'm very surprised at the vote total so far in this match. It has about 88,500 votes so far, and I'm guessing it gets to 90,000 before the polls end.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

FF Characters = High Vote Totals
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Yeah, but you're not exactly on the best of streaks either.

What does that have to do with me
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

I know, but I was expecting about 83,000. That is about 3,000 over the average and I didn't remember Auron as being especially strong, and that Scorpion was just average, so I didn't think it would get so high.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

"What does that have to do with me"

It means your guesses aren't necessarily the most reliable.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

so what, Laharl was a stupid pick and I new it will almost not happen and as for Jak come on how could Ness a character that weak win a match. That was like Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller

Besides it's only 1 point each
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"how could Ness a character that weak win a match."

PSH! I've been saying he would for months now. I told you all, Earthbound proves Ness/Bowser SFF. I was right. You didn't believe me and you were wrong.

"Besides it's only 1 point each"

Yeah? well, I think you're inelligable for prizes, so it may not matter to you, but ask Ulti how much he'd have loved to have an extra point for those weeks where he didn't know if he was taking first place or not.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

true so I don't really care about my bracket and some of the hard picks I picked the character that I liked more if it was too be really close
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

*to
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Exactly. That's why it matters to some people. You don't have anything but bragging rights if you win... I have $400.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

doesn't really matter I'm more Casual then Hardcore
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

35 minutes until Vivi's match ^_^.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

DK's death is inevitable.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I hope so ^_^.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Even if this is GameFAQs I do think DK would get the casual vote since he's a legend and more people should know him much more then Vivi
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

You're assuming a large portion of the peopel taht would vote for Vivi if they knew him don't. I would not bet on that. People know Vivi. People will vote for Vivi.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

He was in only 1 game
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Crono was in only one game...that's a moot point.
---
SC2k4: Character Battle III
Current Score: 18/21 | Current Pick: Auron

wasn't he in Chrono Cross?
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Nope
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SC2k4: Character Battle III
Current Score: 18/21 | Current Pick: Auron

Also last year Mario vs. Crono we saw Crono leading for the night before the casual people got in and voted for him. It took Crono I think 6 hours to get rid of Mario's 100-200 vote lead
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"He was in only 1 game"

That really kills Crono and Magus... Jeez, they are so close to the bottom I think they'd lose to DK for sure.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

So now your saying that Vivi would match Crono/Magus
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"wasn't he in Chrono Cross?"

To deliver a handful of lines, at most, still doesn't explain away Magus in the slightest, nor is it seen as being anything much at all for Crono.

Auron was only in one game, look at him. Shadow had only been in one when he took 45% on Mario. Master Chief and Tommy Vercetti? One game apiece, and capable of beating DK.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

In a rematch between DK and Vercetti, DK has that match won, plus I think DK would beat MC, with or without anti-votes
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"So now your saying that Vivi would match Crono/Magus"

What I'm saying is that you put too much emphasis in beleiving that the number of games a character is in hinders their performance.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

less then 200 votes before Auron vs. Scorpion break 90k can they do it with 11 min. left?

probably
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

"In a rematch between DK and Vercetti, DK has that match won, plus I think DK would beat MC, with or without anti-votes"

Pure specualtion, no evidence. Chances are DK has also dropped this year. I don't tihnk his 2k2 to 2k3 rise was 100% SFF. I tihnk Like Pac and Crash he is a low level mainstreamer who benefitted from higher vote totals. Hell, Vercetti probably is too. DK is back to 2k2 strength, without SFF, and he's still do jsut as pooly against Aya.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

but most people can agree that if the character has a second/third game a year or 2 after there first they would get noticeably popular
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

The time of judgement is swiftly approaching...

...I am...rather anxious for the match to start.
---
-Phediuk

yah right I don't think DK would drop, if he does it would probably be from a margin of error
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Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

There's little evidence to back that up. Sure, they get some small boosts, but nothing that changes them from midcarder to top tier. Dante got a small boost. A better game and he still might not have gotten much more. Not enough data to work with.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Yeah, and you probably didn't think Auron had suffered from SFF either... doesn't mean that because you disagree the possibility of my being correct suddenly lowers. Please, by all means, speculate all you want and disagree all you want... but don't disregard a theory that may very well be true when circumstantial evidence agrees and no solid evidence has yet disagreed.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Auron by my Theory got around 2% SFF and should only be getting 62% so I guess that's close enough

now you must excuse me while I go vote
---
Summer 2004 Contest 19/21 Auron vs. Scorpion

Auron 64.84% 58359
Scorpion 35.16% 31641
TOTAL VOTES 90000

Cool.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Vivi with the initial lead...
---
-Phediuk

Welcome to another close DK match.
---
Because how could I not do this forbidden thing, when it feels so good!

Yup Vivi will easily get the board vote, but unless he gets a 500 vote lead in about 1 hour I say it's anybodies game
---
Summer 2004 Contest 20/22 Donkey Kong vs. Vivi

If vivi holds out like I last saw him then he doesn't have much to worry about.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Wow, as the "board vote" wears off Vivi keeps looking better... You'd think he'd look best now and then slide closer to DK as the first 15 minutes wears off...
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

don't forget that Square usually gets the night vote anyways, so Vivi is expected to be doing better right now
---
Summer 2004 Contest 20/22 Donkey Kong vs. Vivi

Score-Brackets-% Right
21----313------88.1789137
20----1917-----83.8288993
19----4074-----79.7250859
18----5775-----74.4242424
17----6405-----71.1163154
16----5542-----67.4124865
15----3986-----65.1279478
14----2580-----62.1705426
13----1406-----59.5305832
12----622------50.8038585
11----270------49.2592593
10----105------51.4285714
9-----38-------39.4736842
8-----19-------26.3157895
7-----6--------50.0000000
6-----3--------100.0000000
5-----8--------12.5000000
4-----32-------9.3750000
3-----29-------13.7931034
2-----41-------12.1951220
1-----43-------4.6511628
0-----7--------14.2857143

We lost a zero in that match. Other than that it went as expected.

The Top 50 on the other hand did not go as expected. 9 people fell off the top 50 today. That's quite a bit below to average prediction percentage of the perfects. They were the curse(former 1st), Regulus Zeta(former 2nd), ocissordei(former 3rd), Stealthgyro, HoCkEyGuY8435, Red Maw, CO Strife, nataku2002 and genius200.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

The guy with HK-47 moved up =)
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

But of course. I don't see how you can expect a 500 lead in one hour though, that's like saying he must reach the point of no return before day break. That's a lot ot expect of anyone, and very rarely has such a lead been needed.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

He'll get it, or close to it.
---
SC2k4: Character Battle III
Current Score: 19/22 | Current Pick: Vivi

How much was Ness up after an hour? How much was Tidus up after an hour?
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Ness - 618
Tidus - 392

Looks good for Vivi ^_^.

---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Wow, Tidus only had 400 against the king of the day? I think 400 is pretty damn safe then.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Vivi should be at around 500 in an hour, assuming this keeps up. Which it will.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Hurry Ulti you have to make 41!!!

=P

Tidus @ 1.5 hours - 458
Tidus @ 2.0 hours - 542
Tidus @ 3.0 hours - 589

http://sc2k4.com/update.php?pollid=1727

Just change the poll number to check other polls...
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

Wow, Tidus only had 400 against the king of the day? I think 400 is pretty damn safe then.

Tidus vs Shadow was kind of odd. Tidus did not win the night vote and the end of the match like he was predicted to and Shadow didn't start winning the day vote until several hours after he was predicted to.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Yeah, but Shadow has far more comeback power than DK...

ANd we know this won't be another Kefka, Kefka never led by this much, not even close.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Vivi broke 56% and 300 vote lead.
---
SC2k4: Character Battle III
Current Score: 19/22 | Current Pick: Vivi

Yeah, but Shadow has far more comeback power than DK...

Shadow is supposed to have more comeback power than DK, it just didn't seem to show against Tidus. This is is why I said the results were a bit odd.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

I made 41 awhile ago. Besides, this poll doesn't bother me as much as other people are going to make it seem. One, I love Vivi, two, I just installed me a brand new optical wheel mouse, and three, I'm ****ing the Queen ***** of the Universe. You have nothing on me.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Was that her exact quote? Something like that...minus the ***ing though...hehe

Damn, Vivi gained almost 100 votes in 4 minutes.
---
SC2k4: Character Battle III
Current Score: 19/22 | Current Pick: Vivi

Shadow is supposed to have more comeback power than DK, it just didn't seem to show against Tidus. This is is why I said the results were a bit odd.

Change that to it didn't show as expected. Shadow did make quite a large comeback but a good portion of it was because Tidus did not dominate the night vote as much as was predicted to.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Considering 70% of the board thinks Vivi will win, I'm still not surprised in his performance.

*off to count the Prophet topic*
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I made 41 awhile ago. Besides, this poll doesn't bother me as much as other people are going to make it seem. One, I love Vivi, two, I just installed me a brand new optical wheel mouse, and three, I'm ****ing the Queen ***** of the Universe. You have nothing on me.

Lucky bastard ;_;. When I lose a match, I know it will be to a character I despise =(.

And smitelf took the title of Queen ***** of the Universe XD. *points to sig*
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf

The board vote is over Ulti, at this point this is well into the actual night vote and a stronger indicator than the first 15 minutes. Vivi's gonna hit that 500 char was talking about, too. DK just doesn't haev comeback potential unless it's absolutely close.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

500 in under an hour. Looks good. sleep time. See ya in the morn, mina-san
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

At the rate Vivi is going, a comeback by the ape would be astonishing.
---
Don't, Get, Eliminated!

simply astonishing captain
---
Name: Kiyomori World: Phoenix
ffxi needs a wolfoon to balance out the jobs

DAMN DIRTY APES!!!!!!!!! Don't fail me...DK you monkey ass son of a *****!

muahahaha...I feel Crazy today like O_o happiness...
---
Nobody knows you better than your other personalities

Aside from my stomach hurting, my throat being sore, my head pounding like hell, and my general dizziness, I feel fine.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Comeback my ass.

This match is over.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

From: creativename | Posted: 8/23/2004 4:24:21 AM | Message Detail
Comeback my ass.

This match is over.

Probably, yeah.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Lead over 700 and climbing.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

721, even.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Down the stretch they come! Birdstone is going to make him earn it today! And Birdstone leaves Smarty Jones in the dust as he wins the Belmont Stakes!!
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

0_0
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