Looks like the other topic didn't fill up as fast as I thought.

Stats websites:

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm

MMXcalibur's Site:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Tagged for future reference.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Yeah I'll tag it.
---
Instant karma's gonna get you, gonna knock you right on the head.
You better get yourself together. Pretty soon you're gonna be dead.

We'll need this topic soon.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Indeed.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Early tag
---
As I Walked Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death... I got Tired.

I wouldn't count on Sonic doing much this year. People are talking about Ryu beating him.

Ryu better not beat Sonic....

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

As I was saying, I have Ryu beating Sonic ^_^. I think it's a good chance to take.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Responding to Ulti from last topic:

I don't think Sonic is going to be strong in this contest. I have Samus over Sonic in my bracket. I'm just saying that Sonic will still be a recoginizable character 2 generations from now.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Looks like Tanner just might beat Adventure's record for suckitude. He needs 454 votes in the last 3 hours to avoid it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"Maybe Sonic if he can dig himself out of the hole that is Sonic Heroes."

Sonic's legacy will stand... he has more than a decade behind him now and he's still going. Jak would be lucky to live that long. They only keep Crash around because they are too lazy to make up anything new. Frankly, just because Jak is at the height of his career doensn't mean he's some sort of contender. Ratchet's at the height of his career as well, after all.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

We need this topic now.

Crash was the Playstation Icon back in the day. He competed against Mario and Sonic. He was never as popular as them, but it's the principle that counts. Do you really see Jak as being the PS2 Icon? I don't; I think he's much more likely to end up near Ratchet than near Crash.
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I really wish that Sonic would dig himself out of his hole because I used to love Sonic games.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Jak, Crash, Ratchet, sure they'll all fade into obscurity, but Jak has his chance NOW. He does have a CHANCE here. I'm more counting on Ness' GF-like performace, though.
---
"All in all, sometimes it's a wonder that pesants[sic] actually live long enough to learn how to farm....."-mysterygilgamesh4
{34}

I'm just saying that Sonic will still be a recoginizable character 2 generations from now.

Not if SegaSammy gets out of the console business totally. Out of sight, out of mind.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

Know what I love about this contest? I hope I do well, but should we see a massive upset (Ryu over Sonic, Crono over Link), I can take a step back and enjoy it rather than screaming "OMFG YOU IDIOTS WHAT DID YOU DO 2 ME!!1"
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

"Do you really see Jak as being the PS2 Icon?"

I tried putting this idea forwards earlier, no one listened.

If only they knew how bad for them it is to not listen to me.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

One thing I've noticed about the Playstation 2 platformers is that the sidekick is more likeable and entertaining than the main characters. Clank and Daxter are far better than Ratchet and Jak. I dunno if they could actually outperform them though.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Ryu won't beat Sonic
---
Proud to have had the oldest topic ever on the Summer 2002/2003 Contest board called FINAL FANTASY ON GAMECUBE

That would own if Ryu beats Sonic... sighzzz..

---
"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

Sure he'll end up at Ratchet's level. But he is better than Ratchet now, looking from a sales standpoint. And Ratchet is less than 3 percent lower than Ness in the extrapolateds. So if Jak is even a good 5 or 7 percent stronger than Ratchet, it's enough.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

You know what would make me absolutely ecstatic? If Ryu beats Sonic, Master Chief beats Frog, Crono beats Mario, and Cloud beats Link. Then I would win so I'd be happy and stuff.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"Not if SegaSammy gets out of the console business totally. Out of sight, out of mind. "

Sonic sat out an entire generation basically and he wasn't forgotten I assure you.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I've stated a few times that I'd gladly sacrifice a perfect bracket for a Ryu upset of Sonic.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Amen, Ulti. Mario beating Crono AGAIN would make me so happy, despite screwing my bracket's chances. But any major upsets would be great.
---
"All in all, sometimes it's a wonder that pesants[sic] actually live long enough to learn how to farm....."-mysterygilgamesh4
{34}

I'll tag this.
---
Current Score: 15/16 >>SCREW TIDUS!!!!<<
Next match: Cloud over Duke Nukem

Amen, Ulti. Mario beating Crono AGAIN would make me so happy, despite screwing my bracket's chances. But any major upsets would be great.

Yeah. Because no matter what we see here at GameFAQs, Mario IS gaming to the rest of the world. Also, I have Mario over Crono.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Midgar Division: Round 1 - Match 17 – (1)Cloud Strife vs. (16)Duke Nukem

Moltar’s Analysis

Cloud
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VII/Kingdom Hearts
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 8th
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 1st
Seed in 2002: 2
Seed in 2003: 1
Lost in Elite 8 to Mario in 2002.
Won the Summer Contest in 2003.
Final Fantasy VII won the Best. Game. Ever Spring Contest.
Big favorite to win again this year.

If it isn’t the big man himself. Winner of the last Summer Contest, Cloud is back to defend his title.

Duke
Game/Series Known From: Duke Nukem Series
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 33rd
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 45th
Seed in 2002: 3
Seed in 2003: 12

Duke...you’re slipping man. From 3 to 12 to 16? Ouch.

Last year’s Champion vs. Guy whose popularity is slipping fast. I wonder who will win?

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Cloud will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Cloud 87% - Duke 13%



Ulti’s Analysis

Hi. My name is Duke Nukem, and I'm CloudFodder.

Ulti’s Bracket/Prediction - Cloud/Cloud with 81.93%



Cena’s Analysis

Ok, I don't understand how Duke Nukem only got a 16 seed. He is one of the gaming icons to tell the truth, but it won't stop Cloud from going all out on his foul ass. This will be an ass-whipping to tell the grandkids about. I mean, Cloud did win last year, and Duke hasn't been in a good game in 5 years. There is nothing stopping Cloud here, not even the threat of feces down his throat.

Cena’s Vote: Duke (What? I pity him)

Cena’s Prediction: Cloud with 92% (After Snake kicking Tanner's ass hard, there's no way Cloud will be outperformed and not get over 90%)
---
Crono vs. Conker - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Tanner - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (14/15)

I'd definitely sacrifice my bracket to see Magus beat Crono
---
SC2K4 Score: 14/15 Next Match: Solid Snake vs Tanner

Do you really see Jak as being the PS2 Icon?

Many have tried, many have failed. Major Damage was supposed to be the Jaguar's icon, and that didn't go so well. Ristar, Bubsy, Tomba... the past is littered with hopefuls that just couldn't cut it.

Know what I love about this contest? I hope I do well, but should we see a massive upset (Ryu over Sonic, Crono over Link), I can take a step back and enjoy it rather than screaming "OMFG YOU IDIOTS WHAT DID YOU DO 2 ME!!1"

You know what would be great? Ryu beating Sonic, then spending the rest of the day making "Street Fighter II lost to SMRPG?!?" topics.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

"looking from a sales standpoint"

Which is why Pikachu beats nearly everyone except Mario who is and always will be the king of these contests by a margin that makes Link look like Gordon Freeman.

"And Ratchet is less than 3 percent lower than Ness in the extrapolateds."

Assuming no SFF.

"So if Jak is even a good 5 or 7 percent stronger than Ratchet, it's enough."

I need a ****ing staple gun.... I swear to god, people, Jak is not on the same level as Tails. Stop making comparisons that put him there.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

There is no point in arguin this anymore. The people who want to think Jak is equal to Tails will get theirs.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Without fail, Cena seems to shoot the highest in every match analysis.

If Cloud can get so much as 86%, this contest is done.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

And why isn't Jak = Tails? Because Sonic has been around for years? Just looking at this contest makes it obvious that Tails is the most hated out of all the Sonic characters in this contest, nowhere NEAR the level of a Knuckles or Shadow. Jak also has the huge console advantage, where people will recognize as PS2 and vote for him. Tails, however has Sonic Heroes, and from what I have heard, the worst VA in the game. So why is it so impossible to think that Jak = Tails?
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

I said 85% myself in my preview. Perhaps even 84.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Mid-80s is fine, but over 90% would be insane. Cloud would crush Link.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Even if Jak IS equal to Tails, he only wins if there was NO SFF.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

The question there is how does CATS compare to Duke Nukem? If we can figure that out then we can figure out who'll win the contest.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

And look at the insanely high picks for Cloud in the Oracle Challenge. Oh well, it'll pull me out of the hole 20XX buried me in.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Duke Nukem falls between Conker and Isaac in the 2003 rankings.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"Just looking at this contest makes it obvious that Tails is the most hated out of all the Sonic characters in this contest,"

Yeha, and he'd rip Ratchet a new one nevertheless. Your point, if any at all?

"Jak also has the huge console advantage,"

Which is why Master Chief flounders at the bottom of the pile with Gordon Freeman while Tommy Vercetti kicks Link's ass. Console sales mean nothing. Ad campaigns mean nothing. Game sales mean nothing. A character's performance is highly independant of all those factors.

Oh, and assuming console advantage does mean squat... Tails still murders Jak.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"And look at the insanely high picks for Cloud in the Oracle Challenge."

Mine actually feels exceptionally low... but I won't change it. If I'm wrong so what... not like I'm getting any winners wrong anytime soon.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Jak isn't as strong as Tails, but does that mean Ness is stronger than Jak? Damn it I'm tired of hearing about all this extrapolated stats ****.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

"looking from a sales standpoint"

Hm....I think there is some validity here. Yeah, if everything were based solely on sales Pikachu would be about 40 or 50 places higher in the extrapolated, but to say that sales dont matter at all seems silly. Up to a certain point, more sales mean more exposure. Once you are up to FF or mario level, sales no longer matter - everyone already knows who you are, for gods sake. But for lesser known characters, having an extra million copies sold could make a big difference. I think Jak has a much better level of exposure going into this contest than Ratchet did when he was competing (but from sales and from less sucky advertising). I could see no way that Jak would do worse than Ratchet. And, honestly, I can easily see his exposure being enough to put Jak well out of Ness' reach.

I see this match probably ending up within a few percentage points. However, Jak still has the potential for a fairly large victory, whereas Ness does not.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

That's what I was saying in the last topic. When you've been around long enough, sales don't matter because people can know who you are without needing to play your game. New characters need all the exposure they can get, and Jak has had significantly more than Ratchet. He might not be strong enough to beat Ness, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's a good bit stronger than Ratchet.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Sure he'll end up at Ratchet's level. But he is better than Ratchet now, looking from a sales standpoint. And Ratchet is less than 3 percent lower than Ness in the extrapolateds. So if Jak is even a good 5 or 7 percent stronger than Ratchet, it's enough.

That's assuming that Ness suffered no SSBM SFF against Bowser.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Good, the new topic is up. Well enough about the next so called "close" matchups. I feel confident in my picks and I'm sure everyone else does with their respective picks. Since I'm in a talkative mood tonight, and since Mr. Strife is up to bat, I will give a random rant/opinion about FF7 as a whole.

*WARNING: The following consists of my OPINION. This is not your opinion, so you cannot tell me I am wrong.*

Final Fantasy VII, why is this game REALLY so popular? I admit that this is my favorite Final Fantasy game, but for different reasons than it seems to be for most others. I initially spurned Final Fantasy VII because I was too much in love with my SNES FFVI. Playing the demo of FFVII quickly changed that though. That Squaresoft Demo was the greatest move Squaresoft has EVER pulled. So I went and bought FFVII and quickly got into the game.

A quick comparison of FFVI and FFVII and I can and MUST say that the story in FFVII does not compare . The music in FFVI is superior while the music in VII is adequate at best. I learned how to play virtually every FFVI song on the piano. I like the music that much more. It's characters were more diverse and more developed. The storyline, plot, and development just seemed more complete. Chrono Trigger? I won't even ADD that to my argument.

So why is FFVII my favorite FF game then? Gameplay. Point blank. The gameplay is addictive. I used to battle just to try to unlock more limit breaks. I showed off the summon spells/MOVIES to friends. I flaunted my Counter-Counter-Counter-Deathblow combo. And this was just the battle system. That was expected. It was the little things that put this game over the top. Snooping through ventilation shafts? Check. Marching in parades? Check. Motorcycle chases? Check. Chocobo Raising? Check. Snowboarding? Check. It's these thing that separate it from the others. Especially with this game coming so early in the PS1 lifespan.

*SPOILERS* What I don't get is why people worship the story like it's the best ever. It was pretty mediocre to me. The death of Aeris wasn't that earthshaking to me. When I saw it, I was like "Oh, she's not dead". It all looked to casual. No blood? She looked like a doll when she got stabbed... smile and all. Was that even the real her? This is part of her master plan. She'll come back. Getting nothing but a "hand" at the end of the game was rather.... anticlimatic. Sephiroth? Yeah, he looks cool, but he was a terrible villain. I'm sorry, but you have to say more than "I'm going to see Mother". The whole Jenova is my mother thing was weak. I'm sorry. Cloud? I don't like Cloud because of his story. I like Cloud because I used him to Omnislash everyone to death, which is why I think he is popular to most people. Not because of his "character development", but because he was the focal point in one of the greatest RPGs of all time.

*end opinion/rant*
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

XS Crash vs Ness: Crash with 55.77%
XS Ness vs Ratchet: Ness with 58.37%

I'm convinced that Jak is between Crash and Ratchet, so I'd say Ness has the larger margin.


WARNING! SPECULATE MODE AHEAD!
<speculate mode> Suppose Ness = Earthbound and FFVII = Cloud. Earthbound would get 18.47% against FFVII, so let's say Ness gets 18.47% against Cloud. Where did this increase come from? Let's say it's from Bowser/Ness SFF, which would then be expected to go to Bowser with 69.19%. That's a 5.88% loss to SFF. Kinda high, but FFVII > Cloud, so in reality it would be less, but I'm not going to figure it out tonight. New values:

XS Crash vs Ness: Ness with 54.28%
XS Ness vs Ratchet: Ness with 66.32%
</speculate mode>

It wouldn't take much SFF to get Ness in front of Crash, and I really, really doubt Jak > Crash.
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Knuckles strong victory against Kefka only reassures my Sonic > Ryu pick.

There's no way Ryu's gonna take him down now.
---
Sc2k4: 15 of 16
Next Match: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Strong performance? By almost all standards Knuckles underperformed. Bracket votes could've played a part in that though.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"Knuckles strong victory against Kefka"

Funny, since everybody else looks at it and realizes that Knux got less than he was supposed to.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Jak isn't as strong as Tails, but does that mean Ness is stronger than Jak? Damn it I'm tired of hearing about all this extrapolated stats ****.

Amen.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Jak isn't as strong as Tails, but does that mean Ness is stronger than Jak? Damn it I'm tired of hearing about all this extrapolated stats ****.

Amen.

Yeah, curse those XS's! They've been wrong in one match so far! (Kefka/Knux or Luigi/PM, depending on if you believe in Kefka/Crono SFF). And since this is a contest stats and discussion, why are we using statistics to back up our discussion?
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Ulti, just out of curiosity, what matches did you get wrong in the Spring Contest?

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

I didn't say anything about not being able to use stats to back up arguments, so don't try that bull with me. I use them myself. I was referring to the Jak/Ness. And yes, I am tired of people referring to the ES for EVERYTHING. They aren't the only way to figure out a match.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

what do you guys think about vivi/dk in terms of percentages?

From: DpObliVion | Posted: 8/17/2004 12:50:05 AM | Message Detail
Ulti, just out of curiosity, what matches did you get wrong in the Spring Contest?

I have answered this so many times now =) I got three matches wrong:

Super Mario RPG vs Street Fighter 2 - Despite SMRPG being one of my favorite games, I let board opinion, specifically Slowflake's, influence me to go the other way. All was good for the first few hours, at least, and this one match is the reason that whole mess with the tiebreaker came into play. It all worked out in the end though, however I still say that this is the only dumb pick I've made since picking Lara Croft to beat Zelda in the summer of 2003. I had some matches wrong after that (Luigi over Squall, Yoshi over Bowser, Dante over Ryu, Link over Cloud), but none of those picks were flat-out stupid like Lara over Zelda. SF2 over SMRPG may be my last stupid pick ever, to be honest.

Starcraft vs Kingdom Hearts - Everyone knows the reasons for me picking KH. Moving on...

Kingdom Hearts vs The Wind Waker - All this match meant in the end was a score of 185 instead of 189, but still, it was a loss.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Jak weaker than Tails? Thats crap.
---
Sc2k4: 15 of 16
Next Match: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

And yes, I am tired of people referring to the ES for EVERYTHING. They aren't the only way to figure out a match.

I used to think that way until I did some of my own stat gatherng and realized how accurate those stats are. You'd be amazed.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I don't know why you chose KH. Please enlighten me.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

From: The Wise Tonberry | Posted: 8/17/2004 12:58:04 AM | Message Detail
Jak weaker than Tails? Thats crap.

I would assume you have Jak beating Ness, then. I would pick Tails over Jak without thinking twice, as should everyone else.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I screwed up on the SMRPG vs SF2 match as well.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Tails is easily stronger than Jak.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Match XV: (7) Kefka vs. (10) Knuckles Review

Knuckles beat Kefka, 57.46% - 42.54%

Well there you have it, the first upset based on seeds. Boy that took a while. Though the question now is, how could Kefka do so well against Knuckles? Heck he even had the lead at the beginning of the match. The reason we thought Knuckles should’ve blown away Kefka was because Luigi blown away Pac-Man showing that the Kefka vs. Crono SFF almost never existed and this match shows that Kefka vs. Crono SFF had SFF plus more. How could of this happened? Well there are too many possibilities so I won’t list them all.

Pac-Man overperformed against Kefka. That would explain why Kefka did better then what the x-st show with SFF included. Pac-Man had two ways of overperforming against Kefka, bracket voters and picture. In Pac-Man vs. Kefka, Pac-Man was the bracket favorite so that could explain why Pac-Man did well. Also Kefka’s picture looked like more of a piece of lettuce then a character, but if that was true then why didn’t Knuckles get this boost? I’m not sure maybe square voters thought Kefka was a shoe-in last year or they would refuse to vote for a piece of lettuce I’m not sure.

Sonic characters took another fall in popularity. I don’t think it’s true though it is worth mentioning. Last year Knuckles fell in popularity and since he did lose to the same character there really isn’t much a margin of error there. Though since last year and this year Knuckles was in Sonic Heroes I don’t think Knuckles would’ve fall in popularity. I mean if Dante didn’t fall because of the flop known as Devil May Cry 2 then I don’t see a reason why Knuckles would’ve gotten weaker.

Another reason I shall reveal is that Kefka had the bracket support. Even though brackets didn’t really mean anything, but many brackets that look like they could win lost in this match, so I think there was some bracket voter. That could explain why Kefka had the lead at the beginning at the poll because bracket voters are usually the first to votes, giving Kefka an advantage right there. Though I don’t think this factor would only change maybe 1000-2000 voters’ votes.

Well after looking into this poll it’s kind of easy to see why it was so close, but when you factor in Luigi vs. Pac-Man a lot of problems occur. And whenever a theory comes up it gets shot down since it doesn’t make sense for both matches. So here’s what I think, the more you think about this match the more complicated it gets. Though this match does make Luigi the favorite in Yoshi vs. Luigi in round 2.

---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Match XVII: (1) Cloud vs. (16) Duke Preview

Past Performances:

Cloud: 2002

Defeated Fox, 74.61% - 25.39%
Defeated Pikachu, 79.51% - 20.49%
Defeated Alucard, 69.64% - 30.36%
Lost to Mario, 49.89% - 50.11%
Ranked: 8th

Cloud: 2003

Defeated CATS, 86.91% - 13.09%
Defeated Auron, 72.20% - 27.80%
Defeated Bowser, 70.03% - 29.97%
Defeated Sonic, 66.21% - 33.79%
Defeated Link, 51.62% - 48.39%
Defeated Sephiroth, 51.89% - 48.11%
Ranked: 1st

Duke: 2002

Defeated Iori, 62.72% - 37.28%
Lost to Alucard, 38.49% - 61.51%
Ranked: 33rd

Duke: 2003

Lost to Ryu Hoshi, 30.08% - 69.92%
Ranked: 45th

Analysis:

Cloud is from Final Fantasy VII. Cloud is the 2003 champion because of the KHF. Last year Cloud destroyed his opponents he almost doubled Sonic which isn’t an easy thing to do. Though in 2002 before Kingdom Hearts kicked in Cloud still destroyed his opponents and for the four matches he was in he scored the highest total votes of the round and even the highest total votes of the whole tournament. Even though Cloud’s lost to Mario in round 4 was questionable some of us think that Cloud underperform against Mario because Planet Gamecube linked GameFAQs there. This year Cloud starts his run to defend his title and only one problem may be in his way which is that KHF is starting to fade away, but by how much?

Duke is from the Duke Nukem series. Can you believe this guy was a 3 seed two years ago? He lost to Alucard in the second round by almost the amount he beat Iori with. In 2003 he just barley cracked 30% against Ryu. Duke may be weak, but he’s not a 16 seed I say he’s more of a 12/13 seed kind of guy. Duke doesn’t deserve this not yet I say he would be a 16 maybe by next year or two, but not yet. Well it looks like Duke will become an appetizer for Cloud.

Well, well isn’t it Cloud, the winner of last years contest. Can he repeat? Well he is one of the three most likely characters to win this contest so he can. After Link’s better performance then Cloud did against CATS, it is now his turn to prove that he wasn’t the champion for nothing. Let’s see if he can make it to the finals.

Welcome to another boring match where a character from the Super 7 (Noble 9) is having a match against a character that deserves better, but instead will get crushed in the first round. Well that’s probably the match in a nutshell.

What will it take for Cloud to be the favorite of winning this contest? Well I think anything over 87% will make Cloud the favorite though it probably won’t be a sure thing. Though if Cloud fails to get over 77% I think we may give the crown to either Link or Sephiroth. Though the only thing that can hurt Cloud is if Kingdom Hearts is starting to fade away for Cloud and we could know for sure by either this match or next round match.

Well there really isn’t much to say except that Cloud will kick ass and this match could also be used to see if Cloud could be the favorite.

Charmander’s Bracket: Cloud

Charmander’s Prediction: Cloud wins, 81.38% - 18.62%

---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Let me ask you something, Chichiri. Why do you think Jak is on Ratchet's level? His games are way more popular, and besides, the only evidence you seem have for it is that they were in games of the same type made by the same company in the same time period.

Yet so were Crono Trigger and FFVI, but Kefka(arguably the most recognizable character from that game) isn't anywhere near the popularity of Crono, Magus, and Frog. Same with FF7 and FF8, but Squall is nowhere near Cloud and Sephiroth.

Those are the only two examples of the Same type/era/company phenomenon in the contest (I think, if I'm wrong, please point it out), and they both contradict your claim. So why do you think Jak is the same as Ratchet?
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

The contest is getting easier, and paired with the lower voter turnouts and an odd poll starting time, bracket voting is putting a huge dent into the stats. For that reason and that reason only, Link has a chance to beat Cloud.

How does the poll time affect the overall percentage of bracket voters? The contest, at least with some of the earlier matches, may be getting easier, but not for nothing we are at 800 perfects, how was it last year at this time if anyone has the stats for that? And bracket voting is weak though imo. because I usually vote for who I like, and unless it was a really close battle, like frog vs liquid would I vote for my bracket only. even then though, how many people check the results before voting?

also, offhand, does anyone know which system has the best graphics capabilites? isn't it gc, xbox, ps2?

---
Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b17.jpg

Who's got the pic advantage there?
---
Crono vs. Conker - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Tanner - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (14/15)

"Let me ask you something, Chichiri. Why do you think Jak is on Ratchet's level?"

They are comparable. I never said that they'd make for a clsoe match, just they are very similar and you shouldn't expect the world out of Jak when a very similar character can't deliver a win on Gordon Freeman.

"His games are way more popular,"

Here? I don't know about that. GameFAQs isn't platformer friendly. As I've said, the only ones that do reasonably well are also well established. There may be some distance between Jak and Ratchet, but I doubt it's significant.

"Some boring rambling about CT and FF6"

One, Kefka isn't the hero of FF6. He is actually despised by many for being a very convincing and very evil bad guy. It pissed me off when he casually ordered a village's water supply to be poisoned and that's merely the tip of how rotten he is. Find a hero from that game and get them in here then we'll talk.

"Same with FF7 and FF8"

FF7... revolutionary... FF8... just another sequal. Umm, did you have a case?

"So why do you think Jak is the same as Ratchet?"

You have poor deductive reasoning skills.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

My God, that's almost as bad as Kane's, "Help! I'm trapped in a TV!" pic.
---
Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

"Who's got the pic advantage there?"

Well, I'd at least vote for a milk carton before a tv...
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I think Cloud has that pic advantage.

On a side note, I can't help but think that I've seen that Duke pic somewhere before.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

I can't believe CJayC is giving Duke Nukem that pic......

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

One, Kefka isn't the hero of FF6. He is actually despised by many for being a very convincing and very evil bad guy. It pissed me off when he casually ordered a village's water supply to be poisoned and that's merely the tip of how rotten he is. Find a hero from that game and get them in here then we'll talk.

The fact that he is such an evil guy, if anything, earns him more votes. And i dont really see ANYONE from that game being even remotely close to the level of Crono and Magus, sad as that is to admit.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Dude, he used a tv for a pic... how can you be surprised?
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Duke Nukem's picture will go down in contest lore along with the likes of Lettuce Kefka. I can't believe CJayC is using that picture, but it's so fitting that it's hilarious.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Dude, he used a tv for a pic... how can you be surprised?

I can't be surprised because Kane never appeared in person. That's why he became a (bombed) TV.

And Bowser ate Duke.
---
BENDER AND SHINOBU FOR PRESIDENT!
http://img.free.idleserv.net/1625wh18.gif

I don't remember this Kane pic; anyone have a link?
---
"All in all, sometimes it's a wonder that pesants[sic] actually live long enough to learn how to farm....."-mysterygilgamesh4
{34}

Yeah, but I'm sure there were straight on shots of said tv. they could be cut away to make the pic look like he wasn't in a damn tv.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Along with JC Denton's Leg, Tidus' Arm and Crash's Ear
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

I think CjayC had that pic in mind when he put Duke in there. I mean, sure, there's millions out there who would be willing to job to Cloud just to get in, but Ceej wanted to brighten up an otherwise boring blowout.
---
This space reserved for the Summer Guru Contest winner!

Match #15 Review:

Closer than expected, but eh...

Match #17 Preview:

Can Cloud battle the power of bovine fluid fortified with calcium and iron? We shall see soon enough.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I don't remember this Kane pic; anyone have a link?

http://www.sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15&phid=21
---
BENDER AND SHINOBU FOR PRESIDENT!
http://img.free.idleserv.net/1625wh18.gif

Here's Kane TV:

http://www.sc2k4.com/frog/images/sc2k2_pics/t_sum02b21.jpg
---
Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

That's not as bad as the milkbox though....

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Aaagh!

28 Seconds!
---
Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

lmao @ Duke's pic

This is worse than Kane's televised appearance.

---
The above post is purely fictitious. Any resemblance to other posts, real or fake, is accidental, and is not endorsed by this screenname.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b17.jpg

Is CJayC serious? This is ridiculous..... Joke or not. Duke doesn't deserve that. Besides, this will mess up the extrapolated rankings.....
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

TV Kane vs. Eggplant CATS vs. Lettuce Kefka vs. Milk Box Duke
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Yeah, and Kefka severely underperfomed due to lettuce kefka... He should have beaten Knux, obviously!
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

that waws to therealmn
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

lmfao. Gamefaqs as a whole will turn Duke Nukem into a mockery for the rest of his natural life.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Let's reserve that judgment until Duke Nukem Forever gets realeased....


pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffftttttttttttttttttttttttt.....hehehhehehehheehehehhe.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Thanks for the links.

And... and... Forever... released... BWAHAHAhahaha. Ha. ha.
---
"All in all, sometimes it's a wonder that pesants[sic] actually live long enough to learn how to farm....."-mysterygilgamesh4
{34}

Ummmm..... ChichiriMuyo.... do you need a subscription to The Daily Sarcasm Detector?
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Nope. :)

Just felt like taking the joke that extra step.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

And Duke starts off with a solid 25% in the match. I think the milk is actually helping him rather then hurting.

This is looking to be Cloud vs. CATS

Let's hope Cloud breaks 80% soon
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Dude, Duke was winning for the first few seconds. This will turn into the latest fad.

You have to love it when CJayC shows his sense of humor, for his is a legendary one.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

What would Cloud 2002 get on Duke Nukem?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

You had Lara beating one of the best characters ever?

o_0

---
Supporter of Sora for SC2K4!
freewebs.com/imdapartystar

off the top of my head I think 75/25
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

What would Cloud 2002 get on Duke Nukem?

A healthy percentage of his daily recommended calcium?
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

Cloud 2k2 vs Duke Nukem 2k2 - 76.62%-23.38%
Cloud 2k2 vs Duke Nukem 2k3 - 75.31%-24.69%
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle),
SC2k4 Oracle Challenge - Topic ID : 15753262

Well, I got first vote. My day is just a little bit brighter.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

How the hell did three people with Perfect Brackets up to this point pick Tanner over Solid Snake? It couldn't have been all luck if they'd picked the previous 15 matches in a row right.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

Er... They could've had a favorites bracket?

.... O_o
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

They accidentally picked Tanner and forgot about it until the contest started? I've heard of that happening to some people in other matches.

Score-Brackets-% Right
15---800-------99.6250000
14---4152------98.916185
13---7723------98.8993914
12---8377------98.1258207
11---6209------97.2298277
10---3512------96.3838269
9----1533------94.7162427
8----521-------91.3627639
7----159-------86.7924528
6----58--------84.4827586
5----12--------66.6666667
4----12--------33.3333333
3----33--------06.0606061
2----42--------0.0000000
1----58--------1.7241379
0----20--------0.0000000

And we still have perfects falling from perfection. Maybe Match 17 will be the match that all the perfects are perfect on. The zeroes, on the other hand, all pass to the next round for the third time so far this contest.

Nobody fell off the top 50 today.

After Round 16 in 2003 we had 233 perfects and 3 zeroes. That means we currently have 3.42 times as many perfects and 6.67 times as many zeroes. With some tough matches coming things may get a lot closer.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

The Ness vs Jak almost looks like it will take off a good portion of the perfects. What do the guru's say about that match? I've switched between those two so many times and I ended up with leaving Ness with the win.
---
Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.

How the hell did three people with Perfect Brackets up to this point pick Tanner over Solid Snake? It couldn't have been all luck if they'd picked the previous 15 matches in a row right.

37 DarkKeyblade 16 Sora
Not all the "favorites" brackets are dead yet. But we are getting close.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Hey charmander:

13 charmander6000 16 Link

Enjoy.

Also Medigo is owning us all, he has both MedigoUltima AND MedigoMeteo in the top 50 XD
---
Because how could I not do this foribidden thing, when it feels so good!

Only one of Medigo's entries is marked as eligible ;).
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

The Guru's have a slight bias towards Ness, and the BOP has a slight Bias towards Jak. It looks pretty even, as far as the board goes, and one way or another, alot of the Perfect brackets are probably going down.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

I'll laugh if he stays perfect all the way until Sora's beating at the hand of Ryu Hayabusa.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Or perhaps Sora/Samus...
---
Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/17/2004 3:15:06 AM | Message Detail
Cloud 2k2 vs Duke Nukem 2k2 - 76.62%-23.38%
Cloud 2k2 vs Duke Nukem 2k3 - 75.31%-24.69%

And Cloud should easily have over 80% of the vote by the end of the day. How Cloud is still improving in strength is beyond me.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Those are both Cloud 2002. Cloud 2003 would be expected to get 82.14% against Duke Nukem 2003.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Shows that I need sleep when I miss something that obvious.

Cloud has 23 hours to see if he can catch, or pass, 82.14%? I think he can pull it off, myself. He's still gaining at a good rate, and even if he doesn't get there, we can tie the underperformance to the margain of calcium error.

I can't ****ing wait to see Slowflake's reaction to that match picture. He's going to have a field day just laughing at it.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Shows that I need sleep when I miss something that obvious.

You almost scared the **** out of me when you mentioned Cloud getting even stronger >_<.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

It's not outside the realm of possibility. Duke could easily be pulling a Kefka and getting a lot of early votes, thus making him look stronger than he truly is.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I predict that we will have more than 50 topics with the word 'milk' in it, thus overloading the search engine. It'll be a riot. One of the PC gamers' most treasured characters, reduced to a ****ing laughingstock the likes of TV Set Kane, Eggplant CATS, Lettuce Kefka, and Gordon Freeman.

Duke Nukem Forever, now with 110% more calcium. Buy it today! Or in 17 years at the likely release date, at least XD
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

It's not outside the realm of possibility. Duke could easily be pulling a Kefka and getting a lot of early votes, thus making him look stronger than he truly is.

Yes, but improving by that margin would be insane O_o;. I can see 1 or 2%, maybe.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

What % is everyone calling the "OMG Cloud is teh champion" point?
---
"All in all, sometimes it's a wonder that pesants[sic] actually live long enough to learn how to farm....."-mysterygilgamesh4
{34}

85 to 86%, for me.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

What % is everyone calling the "OMG Cloud is teh champion" point?
Unless one of them fails miserably, I don't think we'll be able to call it for either Link or Cloud before the Link/Crono or Link/Mega Man and Cloud/Samus matches...
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle),
SC2k4 Oracle Challenge - Topic ID : 15753262

What % is everyone calling the "OMG Cloud is teh champion" point?

I'd say 84%, personally. That would give Cloud the clear-cut edge, while 83% would make it even between the three elites.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

So, do you guys think Sephiroth can score a higher percentage on Sly, than Snake did on Tanner?
---
I chose the road less traveled -- now where the heck am I?
A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words, But It Uses Up a Thousand Times the Memory

What is the minimum percentage for everyone to have felt that Cloud lived up to his expectations in this match?
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

One of the PC gamers' most treasured characters, reduced to a ****ing laughingstock the likes of TV Set Kane, Eggplant CATS, Lettuce Kefka, and Gordon Freeman.

DolorousAnschlag (4:25:14 AM): Grefter: Is Duke Nukem a respected and treasured PC gaming icon?
Grefter (4:25:29 AM): BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

Grefter's pretty deep into the PC gaming scene. (And pretty trustworthy on this.)

And it's not like Duke Nukem Forever didn't trash any reputation he might have had. <_<
---
www.rpgdl.com See your favorite RPG heroes and villains fight it out. Match of the week: Rashidi vs Ramirez

Well, I just noticed that I am in the top 50, although I guess I've been there since yesterday. That's pretty exciting for me... we'll see how long I can stay there.

---
Contest Winner: Mega Man | Current Score: 16/16
Current Oracle ranking: 3rd | Today's pick: Cloud with 83.34%

Heh, that picture of Duke is pretty funny. Funnier is Duke putting up a decent performance against Cloud, and killing the spread at the moment.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Cloud, tomorrow: Laharl - 14/16
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

Duke Nukem may have the best picture of all-time. XD


Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 88.60% - Solid Snake over Tanner
2) 75.66% - Link over CATS
3) 67.08% - Mario over J.C. Denton
4) 65.98% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 65.96% - Megaman over Eartworm Jim

Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 69759 - Solid Snake over Tanner
2) 62319 - Link over CATS
3) 55813 - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
4) 52337 - Mario over J.C. Denton
5) 49079 - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood

Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.10% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1.62% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 14.32% - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 14.92% - Knuckles over Kefka
5) 23.92% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 93 - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1546 - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 12358 - Knuckles over Kefka
4) 12533 - Ganondorf over Alucard
5) 18618 - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 95122 - Tidus vs. Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 87733 - Frog vs. Liquid Snake
3) 87557 - Ganondorf vs. Alucard
4) 84625 - Megaman vs. Earthworm Jim
5) 82798 - Kefka vs. Knuckles

Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 70495 - Magus vs. Luca Blight
2) 74383 - Bowser vs. Guybrush Threepwood
3) 75307 - Luigi vs. Pac-Man
4) 77021 - Master Cheif vs. Crash Bandicoot
5) 77860 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Max Payne

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes

1) 74251 - Solid Snake
2) 72344 - Link
3) 70219 - Megaman
4) 65184 - Mario
5) 62375 - Crono

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4492 - Tanner
2) 10025 - CATS
3) 12652 - Guybrush Threepwood
4) 12847 - J.C. Denton
5) 13367 - Luca Blight

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 46788 - Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 43820 - Liquid Snake
3) 37512 - Alucard
4) 35220 - Kefka
5) 29621 - Max Payne

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 43913 - Frog
2) 47578 - Knuckles
3) 48239 - Tommy Vercetti
4) 48334 - Tidus
5) 50045 - Ganondorf

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 98.79% - Link over CATS
2) 98.28% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 97.47% - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
4) 97.27% - Solid Snake over Tanner
5) 95.00% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 43.05% - Knuckles over Kefka
2) 44.33% - Frog over Liquid Snake
3) 63.02% - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 68.69% - Luigi over Pac-Man
5) 70.06% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog


---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

So, do you guys think Sephiroth can score a higher percentage on Sly, than Snake did on Tanner?

Nope. It shouldn't even be close, actually. Unlike Tanner, many people actually know who Sly Cooper is. Factor in the typical FFVII anti-vote (which is why I personally think Cloud or Sephiroth will never hit 94% against ANYONE), and you have a Seph victory in the low 80's.
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

Heh. That's pleasing enough for me to see Duke holding Cloud nearly 4% under what he was suppose to get.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

I'm hoping Cloud gets about 4% under what he's expected against Sephiroth =)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Sephiroth
Status: 17/17 Next Pick: Vyse

Well well, if it isn't Duke going from one white fluid to the other.

First thing I thought was, WTF is this? Did the site get hacked or something?

And can someone explain me how he actually used real full-body pics against Iori and Ryu, but he sticks him in there just NOW. Well, I suppose this can draw joke votes... 22% is awesome for him. I suspect Cloud will claim the day vote in spectacular fashion but not enough to reach these ridiculous picks of 85 or 86% in the Oracle Challenge.

Ulti: You know why I picked SF2. Had it been anywhere near Ryu, it would've won easily. That match may have been the smartest upset pick in the entire bracket, save Starcraft. It just didn't happen.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Cloud is getting only 78.16% on a ****ing milk carton? Hmmm....
---
Dude, with those specs, Gordon himself will jump out the game and make you a sammich... -AltarCrystal on Half-Life 2

Duke Nukem, you deserved far better. Even in glorious white fluid form, you are my hero.

On the other hand, who wouldn't buy Duke Nukem milk?
---
-----
-------

He's rising. Not as fast as I'd like him to, but he's rising.

Unless it draws this many joke votes, my Cloud championship pick suddenly doesn't look so good. At least he didn't fall back to his 2002 level, it's that much.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

*commercial starts, medium shot of a milk carton*

Voice over: WHO WANTS SOME?

...
---
-----
-------

I agree with Slow. Now, it seems like a Cloud championship pick doesn't seem so good.
---
Tanner. The only guy Gordon can call a loser and not sound like a hypocrite. - Slowflake

Midgar Division: Round 1 - Match 18 – (8)Vyse vs. (9)Laharl

Moltar’s Analysis

Vyse
Game/Series Known From: Skies of Arcadia
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 43rd
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 11
Lost in Round 1to Donkey Kong in 2003

Vyse makes his return and somehow gets a better seed. Even higher than DK.

Laharl
Game/Series Known From: Disgaea
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A

Another newcomer who must have gotten a big push in the nominations.

Ok, another match which feature a newcomer with unknown strength vs. a weak Contest regular. Don’t you just hate them? In these cases, I went with the Contest vet, but there are 2 times I made an exception. This..............is not one of those times. Laharl doesn’t have that name recognition, and that will hurt. Vyse is at least known from his very forgettable match last year. Don’t expect a huge voting surge this match.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Vyse will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Vyse 53% - Laharl 47%



Ulti’s Analysis

I hate this match. On one hand, Disgaea is my favorite game ever. Laharl happens to be the main character from the game, and I love the little guy to death. You simply don't see anti-hero demons whose main weaknesses are true love and women with sexy bodies, and the abillity to annihilate 6 million battlecruisers all at once. Laharl owns your ass, and be thankful that he doesn't charge you for the privilege of being sodomized.
But that being said, I cannot go against Vyse in this match. If there is one thing that Luigi vs Squall taught everyone, it's that the tested contest veteran is a safer pick than the sexy newbie pick. I love Laharl to death, but he is too new to the contest for anyone to know who he is. And he might not even get the full backing of the people that do know who he is. Skies of Arcadia is a nice little series, and Legends is considered by some to be the best RPG on the Gamecube. Vyse has the backing of people who remember last year's contest, Skies of Arcadia fans, bracket voting, and possibly even the casual vote.
Food for thought: when two games/characters are in a poll, but the voters don't feel like abstaining, the first choice gets the majority of the votes. Vyse is on top in this poll, is he not? ~_^

Ulti’s Bracket/Prediction - Vyse/Vyse with 51.95%



Cena’s Analysis

This is another one of those times when being a gamer would come in handy. Having never played Skies of Arcadia or Disagea, I have no real idea of why these two are popular. All I know is Vyse is a pirate who got owned last year. But considering he's back....as an 8th seed, he should dominated Laharl. She is a new character that people absolutely love, I'm sure, but it won't help. I mean, Vyse lost and is back as an 8th seed, people like him that much. He won't lose.

Cena’s Vote: Nobody

Cena’s Winner: Vyse with 60% (I'm just not interested in this match at all. Though Laharl losing = TRE not #1)
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Crono vs. Conker - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Cloud vs. Duke - Bracket: Cloud - Vote: Duke (15/16)

I have to disagree with all the hoop-la about this hurting clouds chances. This type of match will be hard to ever factor into stats. I, myself say this match is nearly meaningless. Clouds next match will determine if he shall once again be champion or not. The ammount of votes in which Duke is getting now arent the same as a normal battel, as we can all agree.
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*Agent Thickcrust* Super Spy of the PiZzA aRmY

SC2K4 FIRST DRAFT - PAGE 18 - (8) VYSE vs. (9) LAHARL

Disclaimer: This preview series may contain mildly offensive stuff, as well as SPOILERS, not only for the characters discussed, but other stuff as well.

You know what I despise most in these contests? Jobber vs. jobber matches. That's basically CJayC's way of telling us he can't make hard-to-call brackets with a competitive field when there are as many of them as we have here. But hey, it could be worse, we could be having the Nibelheim Innkeeper vs. the Jidoor Auctioneer for the rights to whoop on Tanner in the second round. And let's not mention the quality of the opponent Tanner would have to get out of the first round. Tingle maybe? Nah, affiliation with Zelda = instant win. Gordon Freeman? Let's not even mention the possibility.

So here we got a SC2K3 weakling going against a totally unproven opponent coming from 2003's "Best Game No One Played". No one played it, yet it topped the charts on this site for months... and believe me, if it's as little played as Ragnarok Online, Laharl is screwed.

Um... I know nothing about these dudes. CloudFodder, at any rate. Cloud should get around or slightly above 80% against either, at any rate. In the biggest blowout of round 2, no less. But for the match at hand... gotta hand it to Vyse. He just... looks better. And we know what looks can account to in jobber vs. jobber matches, isn't it, Gordon?

Besides, if a Laharlite like Ulti gives his favorite character no chance whatsoever, he's screwed like Kefka was the minute I put Knuckles in my bracket.

NUMBERS OF INTEREST

SC2K3 extrapolated standings
43. Vyse - 18.43%
DNE. Laharl

Board Odds Project picks (119 brackets)
Vyse - 99
Laharl - 20

Board Odds Project point value
29. Vyse - 99
39. Laharl - 20

CONTEST TRIVIA

Vyse's 8-seed may look undeserved... but Spyro, Ryo, Abe and Pikachu all did worse than Vyse would on his worst day from the same seed.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 016/016 - Matches: 16/16 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Cloud - Tomorrow: Vyse

Okay. Either anti-champion votes exist, or people just can't resist voting for a milk carton. Which is it?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

So far, the results of today's match are looking good for those of us who have picked Link.

Although I'm sure a significant portion of the duke voters are pity/joke votes. So it might be too early to tell Cloud's true strength this year.
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Current Contest Score: 15/16
Today's Pick: Cloud

Phediuk: Probably some of both...
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Tanner. The only guy Gordon can call a loser and not sound like a hypocrite. - Slowflake

Okay. Either anti-champion votes exist, or people just can't resist voting for a milk carton. Which is it?

Both. :-)

-Tai

Ulti: You know why I picked SF2. Had it been anywhere near Ryu, it would've won easily. That match may have been the smartest upset pick in the entire bracket, save Starcraft. It just didn't happen.

Duck Hunt over Donkey Kong was my upset special. I was so close too.....

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"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I said a while ago that having Cloud as champion didn't feel right. Hopefully this isn't a precursor to that.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

I think Duke's Milk Carton is just too god to resist voting for it. This, outside of jobber vs. jobber, might be the first time pictures do something. Because Milk 'n Duke kicks ass.
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Because how could I not do this foribidden thing, when it feels so good!

*tag*
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...and it begins! Next tough match: VYSE vs. Laharl

I picked Duck Hunt too. I thought being packed in with the NES all the way up until the mid-SNES era would give it the win. Guess not.

And just look at that. People are admitting they voted Duke because of the milk carton left and right.

Which leads me to ask... WHY A MILK CARTON?
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 016/016 - Matches: 16/16 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Cloud - Tomorrow: Vyse

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15753324

Here ya go Slow.
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Because how could I not do this foribidden thing, when it feels so good!

Because Cloud had some spoiled milk left in his fridge.
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Crono vs. Conker - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Cloud vs. Duke - Bracket: Cloud - Vote: Duke (15/16)

Come on, people are already giving Link the advantage before the first round is even over? We know better than this. Voting for the milk carton might be too good for some people to resist, like voting for Lettuce Kefka.

The early hours are the hardcore vote anyway. The casual vote will favor Cloud big time. He's got all day to break 80% and he probably will.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Also, there's no way I'd buy any milk that had Duke Nukem on the carton. I'd be afraid of what was actually in it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I don't see how you can count Cloud out of the picture of defending his title yet.. Just look at the Spring Contest, match after match.. People were underestimating that FFVII would beat Ocarina of Time since they think OoT had been doing better with the matches then FFVIII had.. But in the end, FFVII defeated OoT and won the title Best. Game. Ever. Now you can't just count Cloud out yet, afterall he won last year and FFVII did just win the Spring Contest.. Just wait till much later in the Summer Contest then maybe we can analyze on who has the edge over who..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

I was just looking at the results, and Tanner fell short of 4,686 by almost 200 votes. That's just pathetic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

That's a completely different scenario though.

We have a ballpark of what numbers Cloud should be getting around to have a semblance of his past champion self.

The Spring Contest is just completely different since we knew nothing of a game's strength or projected percentages. Don't compare the two situations.

Thinking Solid Snake is going to beat Megaman because of his domination of Tanner is one thing. We don't know how Tanner is in the first place. Just like we had no knowledge of the Spring Contest participants.

We do have knowledge in this case though. Whether it's correct or not is a different matter, but it at least begs speculation in my opinion.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

But no one is even counting Cloud out yet. That's silly. He's the past champion.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Look at it this way... would you buy milk with CLOUD on the carton?

And well said, Vietboizz. Link looked real good last year as well... until Cloud almost doubled Sonic. Sad thing is, Cloud won't have any "major" competition until Squall, and even there he may pick up SFF. Link may pick up SFF in his next two matches as well... we're not going to be fixed on their real power until the final week.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 016/016 - Matches: 16/16 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Cloud - Tomorrow: Vyse

Ceej satired Duke with that awesome pic!

See, I told ya he was a fan of my work! :)
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Steve Illumina: The Official Satirical Commentator of GameFAQ's Contests
Pub Trivian Forever...SC2K4: 16/17 (Go Vivi!)

Yeah, most people didn't think Cloud had a chance to beat Link until he doubled Sonic, and that was in the Elite Eight. The first round is way too early to be giving the advantage to anybody.

Besides, Cloud is gaining on Duke with a good pace. I think he'll definitely break 80% before the match is over with, meaning he'd still be in good shape.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

This SFF matches are the kind of matches I don't usually prefer.. That's why I wasn't very fond of this year's bracket as it puts too many SFF matches together.. I would rather like it if it is Company vs. Company rather than Company vs. Same company..

But that's just how I feel of the matter and I know there are many people who like the bracket the way it is.. I just prefer it to be different, that's all..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

I don't think Cloud should be favored to begin with necessarily. Link either.

Sure, Cloud beat Link last year. With what, 51.3%? Yeah, nice one. Popularity fluctuates more than that from year to year with absolutely no factors. In other words, nothing at all could change, and we could see a Link victory over Cloud this year.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Yes.. Cloud is surely to break 80% by the end of the match.. I have a question, out of all the 16th seeds.. Is Duke Nukem the strongest? and what about the 15th seeds, do you think Duke is able to win over any?

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

Duke could beat all of the 16 seeds. Only Terry Bogard would even give him a match. Lara Croft is the only 15 seed who would beat him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I bet Duke Nukem could tie Lara as long as he had the milkbox on his side.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

7 out of 16 matches so far have had a prediction percentage of over 90%. Ugh.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

This match is not at all showing Cloud's weakness, but Duke's strength. Duke Nukem has the classic PC gamers vote, as well as the people who just don't want to vote for a Final Fantasy character. I expected Duke to possibly be over 20%.

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He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Well then that leaves me to think that Cloud isn't do that bad.. He's actually at the pace I think he should be at..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

Duke could also beat two 14s, two 13s, two 12s, two 11s, two 10s, and a 6.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

This year.. There are way too many characters that are over-seeded... Another reason why I don't like this year's bracket..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

A little note on Link vs. Cloud...

...Cloud got 86.91% on CATS. Link got 87.83%.

Not only were these results in different years, they were within 1% of each other and were against one of the weakest characters in the contest.

So, do these numbers mean anything? No. >_>

Looks like we'll have to wait until the 1337 8 to see the true strengths of Link and Cloud.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Cloud has gained .15% since I voted less than an hour ago to hit 79%. It doesn't look like he's lost much strength at all. If there are any anti-FFVII votes, they usually come during the night. I seem to recall FFVII gaining on every opponent during the day in the Spring Contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Vyse's 8-seed may look undeserved... but Spyro, Ryo, Abe and Pikachu all did worse than Vyse would on his worst day from the same seed.

Yet all but 1 won the first round and Guybrush is a very weak character
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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

Yet all but 1 won the first round and Guybrush is a very weak character

Then that's good news for Vyse. I expect Laharl to be around Luca Blight's level in strength since they have the same very rabid and vocal small fanbase.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Final Fantasy VII did gain everytime on all the opponents except Ocarina of Time in which it did lose the gain only a few times if i recalled correctly..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

That tidbit comes from the X-Sts, not from winning matches.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 016/016 - Matches: 16/16 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Cloud - Tomorrow: Vyse

"Duke could also beat two 14s, two 13s, two 12s, two 11s, two 10s, and a 6."

Assuimng no SFF
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Cloud probably won't end up at quite what was expected, but I don't think we can read too much into that--I'd say that The Milk Carton Factor™ might be helping out Duke just a teensy bit.

Milk: It does a jobber good.
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Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Cloud is at 79.33% now.. He is going to reach 80% pretty soon..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

"Milk: It does a jobber good."

I voted for Duke, and I've never voted for Duke before in my life. I'm not a Duke fan... I'm the furthest thing from it without being a Duke hater, and I used to be one. But I voted for Duke. A lot of people voted for Duke thanks to the milk carton.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Cloud will easily finish the day with over 81% at this rate. I'd say the missing 1% he should have gotten according to the extrapolated rankings is easily attributable to joke votes for Milkem, especially considering that such votes would hurt more now that vote totals have dropped.
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

Cloud will easily finish the day with over 81% at this rate

On the contrary. At this current rate, it would actually be impossible for him to finish with over 81%.

Best he could hope for at this rate is 80.5%

That's if he doesn't pick up the pace.


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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Yeah I think the Milk Carton is offering like a 5% stat boost.
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Megaman will win the contest.

I voted for Duke Milkem because of the milk carton; before I saw the picture, I was undecided on who I was gonna vote for. I'd bet about 1.5% of the total votes are, more or less, because of that part of a balanced breakfast.
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Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Hmm, looks like I'm the only one that voted for Duke because I think he's a great character, as opposed to anti-Cloud, anti-champion or pro-milk. Although all the other things do apply.
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Jon Thomson - today: Cloud, tomorrow: Laharl - 14/16
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

Phediuk here.

I logged out of my main account to check the status of this one, in the process forgetting that, a week before, I had changed the password to my main account. Problem is, I also forget what the password is, and I have to wait a week before I can use the lost password form.

So, I'm stuck with this alt for a week, and I can't access LUE during that time, either. *sigh*

Match #16 Review:

If Tanner and Gordon Freeman made sweet love and had a kid, would that character be even suckier than Tanner?

...Great. Now I have to get the thought of Tanner and Gordon Freeman making sweet love out of my head.

Match #18 Preview:

This isn't a matter of which character is more well-known...it's a matter of which character is less obscure.

Since Vyse's game has been on two systems opposed to Laharl's one, I'm definitely going to have to edge with Vyse on this one.
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-Phediuk

I would have also voted for Cloud had it not been for the Duke Milkem pic.
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"I'm Tanner."--Tanner

On the contrary. At this current rate, it would actually be impossible for him to finish with over 81%.

Best he could hope for at this rate is 80.5%

That's if he doesn't pick up the pace.

?

Cloud is currently gaining at the rate of about 0.5% every 15 minutes. At 10:40 he had 79.33%, at 10:55 he had 79.38%, at 11:10 he had 79.43% and at 11:25 he had 79.47%. At that rate he'll hit 81% at around 7:00pm. He went from 77% to 79% in around 6 hours. How is he not gaining fast enough?
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

^should be .05% not 0.5%
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

You realize that you can't record percentage as "gaining .5% in the past hour" or some such, right?

Because of the nature of percentage increase. For example, Cloud is increasing in percentage right now because the percentage of the incoming votes he's getting is higher than his current percentage.

Likewise, the rate at which your current percentage will increase as a result of this depends solely on the ratio between his current percentage and the percentage of received incoming votes.

To simplify, I will give you an example.

Say the match was actually even before point. 50/50.
Then assume that suddenly, Cloud started received 80% on the incoming votes.

That 50% would start climbing REALLY fast at first, but as it approaches the 80% that he's getting of the incoming vote, it'll keep going up slower and slower and slower. What was once going up at a full 4% per 15 minutes at 50% would only go up .5% every 15 minutes once he gets up to around 70%

Likewise, if Cloud continues "at this rate" by definition, then the percentage that he climbs will keep going up slower and slower until he approaches the current percent of incoming votes he's getting.

Right now, he's getting about 81.35% of the incoming vote.

As his percentage goes higher, he'll climb slower.

If you average the assumed 81.35% vote intake for the rest of the match and factor it in with his current 79.55%, you see he'll end with around 80.5%

Capiche?


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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

One thing I've always noticed about Cloud, Sephiroth, and Final Fantasy VII is that their polls draw a lot of voters. This one's already over 50,000 and we're barely halfway through.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 8/17/2004 11:29:52 AM | Message Detail
Duke could also beat two 14s, two 13s, two 12s, two 11s, two 10s, and a 6.

That 6 being Ness, right?
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

80.5% is still a great number for Cloud, considering he's facing the strongest non-Starcraft 16 seed there ever was, and one who is getting an absolute boat-load of joke nominations. Duke was winning for the first few seconds, you know.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Oh, and Cloud has been stuck at 79.62% for over 30 minutes now. Is that bad?
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

He'll need a fairly big evening vote advantage to get that 80.5 now though. Since his intake has now slowed down to pretty much what his percentage is equal to right now.

It won't even grow at this rate.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

12:11:56 39009 9988 79.62% 20.38% 29021
12:13:02 39085 10009 79.61% 20.39% 29076
12:15:16 39237 10047 79.61% 20.39% 29190
12:16:45 39339 10070 79.62% 20.38% 29269
12:17:38 39378 10087 79.61% 20.39% 29291
12:20:40 39562 10126 79.62% 20.38% 29436
12:21:39 39622 10136 79.63% 20.37% 29486
12:21:45 39636 10136 79.64% 20.36% 29500
12:26:44 39924 10206 79.64% 20.36% 29718
12:31:45 40237 10302 79.62% 20.38% 29935
12:34:55 40461 10358 79.62% 20.38% 30103
12:36:44 40587 10387 79.62% 20.38% 30200
12:41:44 40912 10470 79.62% 20.38% 30442
12:46:47 41254 10556 79.63% 20.37% 30698
12:48:45 41372 10591 79.62% 20.38% 30781
12:49:01 41392 10599 79.61% 20.39% 30793
12:51:24 41553 10631 79.63% 20.37% 30922
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Why are people comparing Gordon Freeman to Tanner? Even Freeman can slaughter Tanner with at least 80%.
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Points: 15/15/192 | Today's Pick: (1)Cloud Strife vs. (16)Duke Nukem | Tomorrow: (8)Vyse vs. (9)Laharl

That 6 being Ness, right?

Yes. I won't be convinced that Ness suffered from a bunch of SFF against Bowser until I see it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

What about extrapolating the final percentages by taking into account that the percentage gains will decrease exponentially? Then I get that Cloud will end up with somewhere between 80.47% and 80.60%. The numbers seem to be stabilizing there.

1:00AM: 82.91% - 83.68%
2:00AM: 81.35% - 81.78%
3:00AM: 81.18% - 81.58%
4:00AM: 80.99% - 81.36%
5:00AM: 80.65% - 80.95%
6:00AM: 80.53% - 80.81%
7:00AM: 80.48% - 80.72%
8:00AM: 80.46% - 80.68%
9:00AM: 80.45% - 80.66%
10:00AM: 80.44% - 80.63%
11:00AM: 80.45% - 80.62%
12:00PM: 80.46% - 80.61%
1:00PM: 80.47% - 80.61%
Current: 80.47% - 80.60%

Except if he doesn' get a voting swing later on, he won't even end up with 80%

Let alone 80.4%
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Oh, and Cloud has been stuck at 79.62% for over 30 minutes now. Is that bad?

Yes.

And personally, I'm not so sure that Duke Nukem could beat Earthworm Jim.

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

Duke/Jim would be good, but I'm pretty sure Duke would take that one.
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Crono vs. Conker - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Cloud vs. Duke - Bracket: Cloud - Vote: Duke (15/16)

I think Calcium Duke would take out Earthworm Jim. I am not going to give a solid percentage, but close to a grand of joke votes (lil more than a 1.5% swing) feels right. I mean hell, we have an admited 10+ votes in this freakin' topic alone, and we make up like .5% of the voting public. Three people missing Snake/Tanner is beyond shocking, though something tells me another couple probably took Duke. I think if Vyse wins tomorrow the remaining 397 probably will outperform the average bracket, just because Vyse has more name recognition, AND he was already in the contest.

If Frog can somehow beat MC, I really cannot imagine his match with Solid would go much differently than his match with Liquid. I mean seriously, how many people can there possibly be that vote Solid>Frog>Liquid???

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...and it begins! Next tough match: VYSE vs. Laharl

I think it's safe to say that Duke's extra 2.5% can be attributed to the margin of error, plus Milkem joke votes (like mine). It's too early to call this one either way, but Link looks favored based on current data. Unfortunatley, we don't get a good match with these two for quite a while due to the insane number of possible SFF matches in this bracket...
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Current Pick: Cloud; Current Vote: Duke (pic); Points: 16/16
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

how many people can there possibly be that vote Solid>Frog>Liquid???

I guess that would be me then, I voted Frog cause it was a close match and i picked him for my bracket. Solid is my favorate charater in the contest and I'll vote him over frog when the time comes.
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"It's cookie time" - Mr. Hann
Vote Vivi and Jak for sc2k4

If Frog can somehow beat MC, I really cannot imagine his match with Solid would go much differently than his match with Liquid. I mean seriously, how many people can there possibly be that vote Solid>Frog>Liquid???

I bet quite a few, and certainly enough to overturn Frog, because even if everyone votes for the same person, and there was a 100 bracket voters, which there are probably more of, that would still be enough to turn the match. Frogs not looking great to beat Snake at all, not that that's really saying much, cause if he could barely beat Liquid, I doubt he has much chance of beating Solid.

Also, I think Leonhart had said something along the lines of people voting for Lettuce Kefka, either way, I just wanted to add in an obvious duh,. that kefka's growth, imo at least , wasn't because more people accepted Lettuce, because that was more an in board thing, I wouldn't really think of Lettuce myself, and even so, wouldn't vote for it, if I were a casual voter, plus, it probably isn't even funny to the casual voter, whereas this milk pic definitely is.
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Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

You guys always talk about these matches being within the margins of error, or being close, but I've done some statistical calculations, and to put it bluntly, you're dead wrong. These matches are way outside the margins of error.

It is a well-known fact that any binomial distribution (i.e. an event either happens or doesn't happen, and it happens a proportion p of the time, 0 <= p <= 1) very closely approximates a normal distribution after a large number of trials. In our case, a few hundred votes would be more than enough for a normal distribution.

Let's start out simple. Let's figure out the margin of error in the Link-Cloud match in 2003. Cloud won with 51.61% of the votes, so set p = 0.5161. If you consult any statistics resource, you'll find that the margin of error in this equals (z-star)*(p)*(1 - p) / sqrt(n), where z-star is a critical value taken from the normal distribution and represents our level of confidence, p = 0.5161, and n = 147637, the number of total votes cast. Most people use a confidence level of 95%, which corresponds to a value of z-star = 1.95996. This means that the area under the normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 1 between -1.95996 and +1.95996 is 0.95 (the area under the entire distribution from -infinity to +infinity is exactly 1). So, crunch all this and you get a margin of error of 0.002549, or about a quarter of a percent! This means that if you held the Link-Cloud match in 2003 in a large number of identical universes, then in 95% of those universes, Cloud would win with 51.61% +/- 0.25%.

Ok, so we can calculate the margin of error in any one match. How do the errors accumulate as you progress down the extrapolated chain? If you have two distributions with standard deviations s and t respectively, then the distribution formed by their sum or difference has a standard deviation of sqrt(s^2 + t^2). Note: I don't know exactly what the rule is for the product of two distributions, but I am assuming that it is at least close to the same formula. This is the only part of my argument that is likely inaccurate, but it should still be fairly close. I will use the above formula for the product of two distributions, though it may not be right.

I calculated a margin of error of 0.2776% in Sephiroth-Cloud, 0.2710% in Mega Man-Sephiroth, 0.2834% in Snake-Mega Man, 0.3000% in Ryu-Snake, and 0.2895% in Duke-Ryu. Using the above formula for combining distributions, the margin of error of the extrapolation of Duke vs. Cloud (which is predicted by the extrapolated standings to be 17.86%) comes out to be a grand total of 0.6361%. That's right. In a large number of alternate identical universes, 2003 Cloud would get between 82.14% +/- 0.64% against 2003 Duke in 95% of those universes.
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Contest status: 15/16 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

So, what I'm trying to say, is that there is statistical evidence that there exist other factors besides random variation that cause the results to not be what the extrapolated standings predict. There is something, whether it be SFF, TJF, TLF, TPF, bracket voters, or whatever, though it's not clear which of those it is.
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Contest status: 15/16 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

Oops, I made one small mistake. The formula for the margin of error is (z-star)*sqrt(p*(1-p)/n). I just typed it in wrong, but I did all of my calculations using this formula (the correct one).
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Contest status: 15/16 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

Or it could be popularity change between the contests. I don't speak of margin of error in a perfect statistical sense; I use it to try and accommodate for all those small factors you listed, as well as popularity change and change in the voter population. For a perfect statistical analysis like yours, it the same voters have to be voting in each match. That simply doesn't work. Characters drift in popularity, bracket voters may choose their winner over their favorite, or a solid Square voter may have left the site. All of these contribute to the margin of error that I talk about (+/- 3%, a number I admit I completely pulled out of my ass).

In a perfect polling situation, you'd be exactly right. But a lot of changes can occur over the course of year, and those changes extend the margin of error.

I completely agree with you that on a given day, the match will be nearly always within your perfect statistical margin of error. But when matches are separated by a year, a lot can happen to push the match outside of that margin. Given that the XS model isn't perfect to begin with, I think expecting a match to fall within the predicted margin of error is unreasonable. Sure, it works for 2k3 Cloud and 2k3 Duke. But we're dealing with 2k4 Cloud and 2k4 Duke; and while the are probably close to their values from last year, chances are that they aren't exactly the same.
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Current Pick: Cloud; Current Vote: Duke (pic); Points: 16/16
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I'm reminded of the BCS for some reason. XD

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

Maybe because, like the XS, the BCS isn't perfect? Merely "close?"
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Current Pick: Cloud; Current Vote: Duke (pic); Points: 16/16
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

One thing I've always noticed about Cloud, Sephiroth, and Final Fantasy VII is that their polls draw a lot of voters. This one's already over 50,000 and we're barely halfway through.

I think that, at least in this case, it is because of the strength of the opponent:

16:59:28 - 63,218 votes for Link vs. CATS
16:59:28 - 70,594 votes for Cloud vs. Duke Nukem

But most of that difference comes from Duke; Cloud only has 816 more votes than Link does at this time. The rest of the difference comes from Duke. And Link's poll was the first poll of the contest, so I'd guess that vote totals would be slightly lower for that poll anyway.
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WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

No, Leonhart is right. Cloud and Sephiroth overall, tend to rack up far more votes in their matches than in any others regardless of the opponents they're facing. They do seem to be the most popular.

Whether they vote for or against them, they do draw crowds...
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Someone pointed it out before I could. The above statistical analysis assumes the exact same voters in each experiment. That simply is not possible, thus the margain of error goes up dramatically.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

No, actually it assumes that both sets of voters are a simple random sample of the global population of potential voters, which for the most part holds true, except for mass spamming. RPGuy96 is correct: it is the general shift in voting patterns due to characters increasing or decreasing in popularity that probably causes the biggest disparities.
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Contest status: 15/16 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

I must say, that was interesting. I'll love to see what creativename has to say about it.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I'd like to jump ahead a few matches to ask a hypothetical question. Again, this is all hypothetical and I figure there's no real chance of it happening, but if Magus beat Crono, would he have any chance at all against Mario?
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"I don't know who you are but I thank you for arousing me." -- Terranigma

I wouldn't think so...
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Bowser vs. Guybrush - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Cloud vs. Duke - Bracket: Cloud - Vote: Duke (15/16)

The only hope Magus has of defeating Crono is by reverse SFF, which has never happened before and won't happen until that match (with no clear favorite in Luigi/Yoshi, it would be hard to tell SFF from reverse SFF). Regardless, Magus still wouldn't be as strong as Crono statistically, because reverse SFF, like SFF, is only for certain matches and would not change his overall popularity. So he'd still be below Mario, and really not have much of a chance at beating him.
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Current Pick: Cloud; Current Vote: Duke (pic); Points: 16/16
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Cloud isn't doing as well as what 2003 would have him at, though it's not necessarily enough to cause a big stir like earlier. After Link did better than he was expected and Cloud doing a little worse than expected I wouldn't give an advantage to either. However, in a match between the two I would confidently pick Link.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Whoa, Heroic Mario favors Nintendo's #1 over Square's #1? Shocking.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

It's kind of hard to see who is the clear favorite to win this contest due too many SFF matches.. I wish it would go back to the way it was next year.. This year's bracket isn't working for me..

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"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

argh, I really need to save this so I don't have to keep forgetting it, can anyone tell me the formula to figure out how one character does against another, if someone could just post it quick, it'll save me the trouble of looking, thanks in advance.
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Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

I think that, at least in this case, it is because of the strength of the opponent:

Duke-Iori is among the top ten least popular polls in contest history. Duke-Alucard barely got more votes than Ryu-CATS. Ryu-Duke from last year was just average. Cloud-CATS got a lot more votes than that and Link-AiAi. From what I've heard, Cloud regularly drew among the highest vote totals in each round of the 2002 contest, and I know he did it last year. FFVII did it in the Spring Contest, too.

Final Fantasy VII just draws voters to the polls. Whether it's to vote for or against it, that's how it is on GameFAQs. The fact that Cloud has the power to draw people to the polls could work to his advantage.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Just as a warning, I'm coming after you people if I hear any nonsense tomorrow about how Laharl doesn't deserve to be here. Think about my JC Denton fanboyism on anabolic steroids. And a caffeine high. An anaboloc Ulti on a Dr. Pepper high seeing post after post of 'Laharl sucks, he doesn't deserve to be here' is hazardous to your health and good for my **** list =)
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

actually, i was thinking about the Magus vs. Crono match today. if there really truly was a decrease in casual voters, Magus could possibly get the edge. Kefka's massive improvement could be evidence of fewer casual voters (it might not, but it's possible). Crono has always seemed to have a high number of casual voters vote for him because he's cool looking like that Goku guy. he's still very popular without casual voters, but Magus has always been more of the cult favorite than Crono.

i still find it highly unlikely that the casual vote has dropped that significantly, and i really can't see Crono losing this match, but i do have to admit that Magus has a slight possibility of an upset. unlike Bowser and Ganondorf, who have absolutely no chance whatsoever of an upset.

and that brings me to today's match:

Heroic Mario said:

Cloud isn't doing as well as what 2003 would have him at, though it's not necessarily enough to cause a big stir like earlier. After Link did better than he was expected and Cloud doing a little worse than expected I wouldn't give an advantage to either. However, in a match between the two I would confidently pick Link.

Cloud's only a point and a half below where the extrapolateds have him and Duke Milk'Em's pic easily make up that difference and more. i'd bet that today, Duke officially got more pity votes than any other character in a single match. and Cloud will probably wind up with MORE votes than Link, despite having an opponent who will get almost twice as many votes as Link's opponent.

and actually, i'm quite pleased that Ceej decided to spice up what would have been an otherwise boring match. maybe Ceej will decide to use more creative pics more often for these easily predictable 1 vs. 16 and 2 vs. 15 blowouts. i can see it now:

he could use a pic of Sly Cooper lying down, dead, so he actually looks like roadkill in his pic. and then he could slap Terry Bogard's face on a pizza box. and then he could use a pic of Angelina Jolie for Lara Croft. or better yet, he could use a pic of the naked Lara Croft with her fun parts blacked out, OR naked Angelina Jolie with HER fun parts blacked out - or NOT blacked out.......... >_> *ahem*

actually, i could totally see Ceej using a pic of both Samus and Lara in their bathing suits? can you imagine the reaction of the board that day? Summer Contest Swimsuit Competition, yeah!!!

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That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

As long as he doesn't do as bad as Tanner, you won't hear nuthin from me. I like Disgaea.

If he does...Well, that's kinda a long shot, so I won't consider it.
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Current Pick: Cloud; Current Vote: Duke (pic); Points: 16/16
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

oh, and Ulti, who will you kill if Laharl winds up being so obscure that Vyse breaks 80% tomorrow? =P

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That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

I don't know about Ulti, but I know I'm liable to go on a killing spree if I hear any crap about Laharl. ;)

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

I think that Duke picture IS official art, if I'm not mistaken, so we probably won't see a roadkilled Sly Cooper unless it's actually art.

Samus vs. Lara in a swimsuit competition isn't out of the question, however.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Leonhart said:

Duke-Iori is among the top ten least popular polls in contest history. Duke-Alucard barely got more votes than Ryu-CATS. Ryu-Duke from last year was just average. Cloud-CATS got a lot more votes than that and Link-AiAi. From what I've heard, Cloud regularly drew among the highest vote totals in each round of the 2002 contest, and I know he did it last year. FFVII did it in the Spring Contest, too.

here's their two matches from 2002:

Duke Nukem - 33160 - 62.7%
Iori Yagami - 19714 - 37.3%

Total Votes - 52874

Cloud Strife - 54643 - 74.6%
Fox McCloud - 18599 - 25.4%

Total Votes - 73242

and their two matches from 2003:

Duke Nukem - 28995 - 30.1%
Ryu - 67413 - 69.9%

Total Votes - 96408

Cloud Strife - 94086 - 86.9%
CATS - 14168 - 13.1%

Total Votes - 108254

Cloud got more votes than Duke and Iori combined. then he almost got more votes than Duke and Ryu (who is not a worthless opponent) combined. enough said.

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That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

heh, now i can't wait for the Samus vs. Lara Swimsuit Competition.

^_^

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That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

Just as a warning, I'm coming after you people if I hear any nonsense tomorrow about how Laharl doesn't deserve to be here. Think about my JC Denton fanboyism on anabolic steroids. And a caffeine high. An anaboloc Ulti on a Dr. Pepper high seeing post after post of 'Laharl sucks, he doesn't deserve to be here' is hazardous to your health and good for my **** list =)

As long as Vyse wins and doesn't screw my perfect bracket, I won't be sliding by Laharl's house laughing at him anytime soon. :-)

I'm more interested in how many brackets actually have Vyse winning. Vyse winning seems obvious, but so did Knuckles, and we all know what happened then..>_>
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GameFAQs can gain justice from this petition! Please visit it at http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=15656619 (887 Signs!)

Vyse is the more known character, and will probably win, if only because he was in the last contest. I suspect this may be the lowest voted match of the contest, neither character is terribly well known, and their games have to be described as obscure. I'll probably end up voting for Laharl as I've played Disgaea, and never gotten around to Skies of Arcadia.
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

I'm more interested in how many brackets actually have Vyse winning. Vyse winning seems obvious, but so did Knuckles, and we all know what happened then..>_>

People are stupid. When it comes to two characters they don't know, they go with the one they saw in the contest before (Vyse), or with natural human instinct (the top option). Vyse should win this easily.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I'm more interested in how many brackets actually have Vyse winning.

Probably 65/70% have Vyse on top. Only the fanatical or stupid would have chosen Laharl...
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"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

Tsk tsk tsk. Laharl has a shot, I have to recognize that. I just don't think he will take advantage of it.

I thought about the Dante/Ratchet match as reference point for Luigi/Yoshi... didn't Ratchet have a new game since last year? If so, I guess we can throw that match out of the window.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 016/016 - Matches: 16/16 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Cloud - Tomorrow: Vyse

Yes, Ratchet has had Going Commando since last year, and the third in the series is due out later this year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Bah. Now there's nothing before Luigi/Yoshi to try and explain all this crazy crap from the Circle of Death.

And I have no numbers to crunch...
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Current Pick: Cloud; Current Vote: Duke (pic); Points: 16/16
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

The rest of Midgar's match pics are up. Looks like Jak has the advantage in pic. Not that would usually matter much, but it makes my Jak pick look a very very small bit better. Also, Kirby looks squished, as does DK.
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Summer Contest Match 16 Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem
Status 16/17 Points: 016 Next: Vyse vs. Laharl

Links? Forgive my n00bism.
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SC2K4 Score 16/16. Today's pick: Cloud. Voted For: Duke.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b18.jpg

Starts at Vyse vs. Laharl. just add 1 to the 18 to get the rest of them.
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Summer Contest Match 16 Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem
Status 16/17 Points: 016 Next: Vyse vs. Laharl

Thanks.

Note: That last post was a tag in disguise.
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SC2K4 Score 16/16. Today's pick: Cloud. Voted For: Duke.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Match XVI: (2) Solid Snake vs. (15) Tanner Review

Solid Snake beat Tanner, 94.30% - 5.70%

Solid Snake didn’t just get 90%, he got almost 95%. This is the second biggest blowout ever, only behind The Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure, though Tanner did get fewer votes. This match was laughable, but also brings out the question how did he get into the contest? I could name many characters that deserve this spot more then Tanner. Also for the record all characters down to Tails will get 90% against him, Gordon Freeman would get 87%, Ms. Pac-Man would get 70% and Mr. Driller the weakest character is the only character in all of the contests that couldn’t get over 66% against him. He’s that weak and I say 95% of his votes were either, anti-Solid Snakes, pity votes or bracket voters (yah bracket voters).

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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

Match XVIII: (8) Vyse vs. (9) Laharl Preview

Past Performances:

Vyse: 2002

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Vyse: 2003

Lost to Donkey Kong, 37.58% - 62.42%
Ranked: 43rd

Laharl: 2002

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Laharl: 2003

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis:

Vyse is from Skies of Arcadia. Vyse is one of the characters from the WTF department. Not only did he came back though since his game was in the spring contest I guess he should’ve came, but he got a 3 seed increase which is just weird and he is also seeded higher then the character that defeated him, Donkey Kong. Vyse was here last year and he lost in the first round to Donkey Kong which was Donkey Kong’s biggest blowout ever beating out Bub’s 38%. Even though Skies of Arcadia was a Dreamcast game it was re-released in the Gamecube it didn’t sell that well. But with all that working against him Vyse actually has a chance of winning his first round match.

Laharl is from Disgaea. He is also a new character to the world and to this contest. If he was placed almost any where else in the bracket he would lose his first round match easily, but being place against a weak character will make you think about this match. Disgaea is a very new game actually it’s even newer then the re-released of Skies of Arcadia, so that might give Laharl a disadvantage. But then Vyse is a very weak character losing to Donkey Kong in a blowout. This is one of the three battles of the weakest and the loser of this match will probably be up for the Gordon Freeman award.

This match is being heavily to Vyse, but I think this match would be close and I even have Laharl winning. Though out of my entire first round picks this match I have the least confidents, but that’s probably because the board is so heavily favored towards Vyse, but if I get it right my perfect bracket shall live on. Also both characters are very overseeded.

First let’s talk about past results. Laharl may never have been in any of these contests since he was too new to be in last year’s character contest and his game is from PS2 and there was a 1 nomination per consol cap so he couldn’t get in, but Vyse did. In the games contest Vyse lost to Donkey Kong in the first round, but not only that he did worse against Donkey Kong then any other character did and that includes Bub and I don’t see any reason for Donkey Kong to gain between 2002 and 2003.

In the games contest Skies of Arcadia was also in it. Do things look bad for Laharl? Nope because Skies of Arcadia was a Dreamcast game and if you remembered how the nominations went like you could only nominate one game per console. SoA being on a Dreamcast gave it an advantage because there weren’t that many good games on it. While Disgaea was on Playstaion 2 and with that rule games were hard to get in from the Playstaion 2. Just look at Metal Gear Solid 2 and what it did against the future 128 bit division champion. As far as matches are for Skies of Arcadia was on the losing end to the biggest blowout in the 128 bit division.

If you think Vyse is going to win because of its re-released game to the Gamecube since Dreamcast went under better think again. Shenmue, the game Ryo was in was also re-released when Dreamcast went under, but instead it went to Xbox and from the games contest Shenmue is about as good as Skies of Arcadia meaning that even being re-released to the worst 128 bit consol Shenmue is still as strong as Skies of Arcadia. Not a good sign for Vyse at all. Also for anyone that says there was SFF in WW vs. SoA is wrong since 1. SoA was on a different consol and 2. WW and SoA are completely different games.

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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

Well after doing this preview I’m still hoping that the upset will happen so I can hit the top 5 and stay perfect, though it is still a long shot. Vyse will probably have the bracket advantage and maybe a slight, “Hey weren’t you in this contest last year?” votes too. For picture advantage people are easily saying Vyse, but it could go either way since Laharl looks cool too. Well I hope my preview has changed your mind on the outcome of this match or at least make you think it will be closer.

Charmander’s Bracket: Laharl

Charmander’s Prediction: Laharl wins, 51.35% - 48.65%
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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b18.jpg

Nice pic. Expected the Vyse one, but the Laharl one is good too.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b19.jpg

Kirby looks a bit stretched out. Kain looks pretty cool.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b20.jpg

Another good pic IMO. Bomberman is gonna blow Squall up!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b21.jpg

...Advantage: Jak He looks good in that pic while Ness doesn't.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b22.jpg

Both look cool. Slight nod to Auron though.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b23.jpg

DK looks a bit stretched, but he has that battle pose. Vivi just stands there....

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b24.jpg

Look at that sword just cut into Sly's pic...darn Sephy, what a hog.
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Bowser vs. Guybrush - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Cloud vs. Duke - Bracket: Cloud - Vote: Duke (15/16)

That's got to be the worst picture of Ness EVER. It's so bad it makes me think Ceej looked for the worst one possible.

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

I've been saying since the contest started that if Ceej used a SSBM pic for Ness it would end up making him look like a 6 or 7 year old (I thought that was obvious though...) .
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Summer Contest Match 16 Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem
Status 16/17 Points: 016 Next: Vyse vs. Laharl

Jak looks badass in his pic.

Oh, and am I the only one in this topic who has Tails beating V. Joe?
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"I'm Tanner."--Tanner

You've got to give the picture advantage to Vivi just for being a black mage. I don't really like the pic DK got either.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Meh. It's good to see the Laharl pic. He does indeed have the advantage there. But we've seen evidence recently that pics do in fact make a difference, and the one for Ness looks terrible. I could find a better one from SSBM easily, though he should have had the clay model pic from EarthBound. =\

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

Welcome to the club

I think I'm the only one that has Laharl beating Vyse
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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

Master Moltar and charmander6000 good job. I think the character's with shorter names have a slight advantage over those with longer names because shorter= bigger= easier to read.
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My luck works best when things are... random. Mat Cauthon from The Dragon Reborn

I think that pic definitely helps Jak's chances of winning the match - the one for Ness was the same one used last year as well

I would be surprised if Laharl proves to be notably stronger than Luca Blight. Their fanbases are extremely rabid and vocal, but the problem is so few people have played their games. Magus broke 80% on Luca, and only Cloud, Link, and Sephiroth are capable of hitting 80% on Vyse. I think the SoA star takes this one without too much trouble.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

The only fear of Vyse was his pic, but now that Laharl also has a sword the pic advantage won't go to anyone
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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

If you've ever played Disgaea, or even looked at the cover art, you would know that the match pic for Laharl is simply his cover picture.

Anyway, Cloud looks like he may score 71000 votes in this poll. That's within 2000 votes of what Link scored against a much inferior opponent to Duke Nukem, yet people still talk of Link as the favorite? Had Duke not received all of these joke votes over his picture, Cloud could have easily scored a percent or two higher. I still say that he is the favorite to win this contest.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Vyse should take an early lead since the bracket voters probably favor him, but Laharl should catch up
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Summer 2004 Contest 16/16 Cloud vs. Duke

I think Vyse will lead wire-to-wire. Most of this board will be surprised, but I see his percentage being in the 60s.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I don't think Link's strength can accurately be gauged, since he had the first match, and not everyone knew what was going on. Now that we are in the swing of things, I think we would be able to tell exactly who the favorite is by juding them in the next round.

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

Well, this is pretty much what I expected with Vyse-Laharl.

We lost three more perfects on Cloud-Duke Nukem. I wonder how many will fall today.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

If this continues, me
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Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

We should lose a couple hundred or so, as well as every single Guru currently on the leaderboard. Yes, they all picked Laharl to win this match. All of them. Oddest coincidence ever.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Couple notes, Vyse leading by 62% out of the gate, unless Laharl picks it up quickly he's probably through.

Three more perfects fell with Cloud's win, which doesn't really seem possible. Why go to all the trouble of picking the previous 16 right only to screw yourself out of any shot at a prize? Cloud had a 97.97 prediction percentage, which is par for the course.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

I hope I can get on the damn leaderboard tomorrow -_-; Somehow, I doubt it though. I changed stuff the day before the brackets were final.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

We should lose a couple hundred or so, as well as every single Guru currently on the leaderboard.

Ulti I thought you picked Vyse to win?
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

Well, this is about what I expected out of Vyse. I'll be getting closer to reaching the Top 50. Speaking of, when are you gonna be getting on there, Ulti?

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Score-Brackets-% Right
16----797------99.6235885
15----4110-----99.8053528
14----7683-----99.4923858
13----8305-----99.1450933
12----6194-----98.3371004
11----3557-----96.7107113
10----1579-----94.9968334
9-----557------92.4596050
8-----183------85.7923497
7-----70-------80.0000000
6-----17-------52.9411765
5-----8--------37.5000000
4-----10-------10.0000000
3-----31-------0.0000000
2-----43-------0.0000000
1-----57-------0.0000000
0-----20-------0.0000000

And the perfects still aren't perfect. The zeroes, however, continue to do well. In fact the 1, 2 and 3 also go "perfect".

Once again nobody falls off the top 50.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Ulti isn't on the leaderboard charmander.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

I'm talking about the Guru
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

He said that all the gurus currently on the leaderboard will fall off.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Vyse was up by 230, but Laharl got a little surge and brought it back down to 200, effectively knocking Vyse's percentage under 60%.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

I can't read

Also Vyse is under 60% maybe the bracket voters are dying down
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

From: DpObliVion | Posted: 8/18/2004 3:09:20 AM | Message Detail
Well, this is about what I expected out of Vyse. I'll be getting closer to reaching the Top 50. Speaking of, when are you gonna be getting on there, Ulti?

After DK beats Vivi.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

So what, next year Ulti?
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Too bad Ness is losing to Jak. :P
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

Well it looks like Vyse has this match won unless bracket voters heavily favored Vyse
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

Vyse had this thing won from the beginning, and I'm the biggest Laharl fan there is.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

It's not over yet, I mean Kefka was leading for an hour an a half before Knuckles took the lead. Of course Kefka's best lead was less than a third of what Vyse currently has, closer to a quarter in fact. Regardless, Laharl will take the lead right after the bracket voters stop voting. And if all else fails, there's always Appeal by Force...
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

These next six matches should really trim the fat from the perfect brackets. I'm predicting somewhere around 200 left flawless one week from now.
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

Laharl suffers from the same problem that Luca Blight did. He's too cult. The casual vote will favor Vyse.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

TRE, the biggest successful comeback we've seen is what, 130 votes? And Knuckles is known to the mainstream audience. Laharl, a cult character that no one has heard of, isn;t going to have enough mainstream appeal to do much in this match.

Besides, most of the people who don't know who either character is are going to pick the cooler-looking character (Vyse) or simply go with the top option (Vyse). Laharl is done.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Vyse ends the first hour of the poll with a respectable (if not exactly staggering) 550 vote lead, and with that I'm going to sleep.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

well.. by the end of this division, I see around 100 perfect brackets.

half gone today, maybe a little less: 450
not a lot the next few days, but a good amount: 400
half gone on ness/jak either way: 200
not a lot the next day: 200
half gone on vivi/DK: 100
not a lot the next day: 100

That's just taking halves on 'em. Give or take some % marks on the split matches, whichever way they go, it'll be under 100.

---

Also, the leaderboard. Is it last edit, or when you first submitted the bracket? I submitted within an hour, but edited one match a few days later (tidus, phew). Still not up there. Maybe tomorrow.

*sighs*

Another lost point for me. God, the only close match I've got thus far is Tidus/Shadow. I'll be thankful if Jak beats Ness now greater then 55/45. My only chance is Ryu in the Final Four to be respectable on the scoreboard.

Ness will beat Jak and Vivi will beat DK. More sure of #2, than 1 but both are true. Hope I don't suffer from being over-cocky.
---
Trying is the first step to failure.

Another point down today. If Ness and Vivi somehow win, this division could be messy...
---
Jon Thomson - today: Laharl, tomorrow: Kirby - 15/17
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

how many people can there possibly be that vote Solid>Frog>Liquid???

Only needs 100 bracket voters. I'm one of them, only voted for Frog because of the bracket.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Laharl, tomorrow: Kirby - 15/17
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

Um, Frog only needed 50 bracket voters in that match. If 50 people were to change their mind, Liquid would have won.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Yeah, my bad. Makes it even easier then, doesn't it?
---
Jon Thomson - today: Laharl, tomorrow: Kirby - 15/17
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

We should lose a couple hundred or so, as well as every single Guru currently on the leaderboard. Yes, they all picked Laharl to win this match. All of them. Oddest coincidence ever.

haha, I like that ulti

---
Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

actually, i gotta admit that Laharl looks pretty dang cool in his pic. and after checking to make sure Vyse was safely ahead, i did vote for Laharl.

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 88.60% - Solid Snake over Tanner
2) 75.66% - Link over CATS
3) 67.08% - Mario over J.C. Denton
4) 65.98% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 65.96% - Megaman over Eartworm Jim

Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 69759 - Solid Snake over Tanner
2) 62319 - Link over CATS
3) 55813 - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
4) 53705 - Cloud over Duke Milk'em
5) 52337 - Mario over J.C. Denton

Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.10% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1.62% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 14.32% - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 14.92% - Knuckles over Kefka
5) 23.92% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 93 - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1546 - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 12358 - Knuckles over Kefka
4) 12533 - Ganondorf over Alucard
5) 18618 - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 95122 - Tidus vs. Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 88953 - Cloud vs. Duke Milk'em
3) 87733 - Frog vs. Liquid Snake
4) 87557 - Ganondorf vs. Alucard
5) 84625 - Megaman vs. Earthworm Jim

Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 70495 - Magus vs. Luca Blight
2) 74383 - Bowser vs. Guybrush Threepwood
3) 75307 - Luigi vs. Pac-Man
4) 77021 - Master Cheif vs. Crash Bandicoot
5) 77860 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Max Payne

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes

1) 74251 - Solid Snake
2) 72344 - Link
3) 71329 - Cloud
4) 70219 - Megaman
5) 65184 - Mario

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4492 - Tanner
2) 10025 - CATS
3) 12652 - Guybrush Threepwood
4) 12847 - J.C. Denton
5) 13367 - Luca Blight

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 46788 - Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 43820 - Liquid Snake
3) 37512 - Alucard
4) 35220 - Kefka
5) 29621 - Max Payne

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 43913 - Frog
2) 47578 - Knuckles
3) 48239 - Tommy Vercetti
4) 48334 - Tidus
5) 50045 - Ganondorf

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 98.79% - Link over CATS
2) 98.28% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 97.97% - Cloud over Duke Milk'em
4) 97.47% - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
5) 97.27% - Solid Snake over Tanner

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 43.05% - Knuckles over Kefka
2) 44.33% - Frog over Liquid Snake
3) 63.02% - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 68.69% - Luigi over Pac-Man
5) 70.06% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

What? Milkem references, but not Lettuce Kefka? ;_;

Um... yay, Vyse is winning? I wouldn't care any about this match if it wasn't for my bracket. My Oracle pick looks like ass, but then again, so do a lot of people, I guess.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 016/016 - Matches: 16/16 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Cloud - Tomorrow: Vyse

Same...hopefully this match can get a little interesting later.
---
Bowser vs. Guybrush - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vyse vs. Laharl - Bracket: Vyse - Vote: Vyse (16/17)

This match will be lucky if it sees 65000 votes. Ouch.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

SC2K4 FIRST DRAFT - PAGE 19 - (5) KIRBY vs. (12) KAIN

Disclaimer: This preview series may contain mildly offensive stuff, as well as SPOILERS, not only for the characters discussed, but other stuff as well.

God knows how the pink ball o' fluff managed to get enough nominations for a 3-seed last year and a 5-seed this time around. Technically, he's the epitome of the "kiddy" stereotype, so why does he make unanimity as much? I have no idea, though as far as this board goes, I'll take a wild guess and say it's five consecutive letters on the keyboard. OR, perhaps it's CJayC begging for mercy after giving the puffball a 14-seed and a first round encounter against one of the two, count 'em, TWO people who could beat him in his division. (Let's just say that after the crap seeding and huge snubs of this year, CJayC will have much begging to do, especially for female characters.)

The cute lil' secondary mascot doubled by a once-broken fighting character will have a little easier time than last year getting by the first round, as he faces a Soul Reaver character. Soul Reaver? What are they still doing here? Yes, I know, Raziel performed exceptionally well against Strider. But last year's killing at the hands of Sephiroth should've been, by all means, the exit sign. Well, Raziel left... only for another of these chumps to come in. Kain. People have been talking about an upset and quite frankly, the only hope he has is that people will start thinking "FF4" when seeing Kain's name. Because the games aren't displayed on the front page... betcha some people are voting Vyse, then look at the bracket and go "oh ****, the other dude's the guy from Disgaea". Okay, so maybe not.

It's practically impossible for me to tell what kind of score we'll see tomorrow. He could end up being stronger than Raziel, in which case he'll get above 40%. Or he could be a total dud, in which case he'll struggle not to get doubled.

So, why is Kirby NOT the 5-seed in the Chaos division instead? You know you wanted it.

NUMBERS OF INTEREST

SC2K3 extrapolated standings
25. Kirby - 25.49%
DNE. Kain

Board Odds Project picks (119 brackets)
Kirby - 116
Kain - 3

Board Odds Project point value
22. Kirby - 122
48. Kain - 3
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

From one of the most popular polls to the least popular poll.

Yay.

It's not often that a match can get a lower number of votes than a Magus match.


There's always Gordon Freeman Vs. Sam Fisher though. I wonder which one will get less....
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

The number of Link brackets on the leaderboard is simply astounding.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

Link Link Link Link Cloud Cloud Cloud Sephiroth Sephrioth Megaman... Sora.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

What?

No Kirby Contest Trivia? :(
---
"Hail to the king, baby."--Duke Nukem

Here's one Kirby is the only character to be in the same 4-pack as bomberman all 3 years and from 2002 - 2003 they both flipped there seed (Kirby 14-3) (Bomberman 6-11)
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

Well it looks like I'm going to suffer my first lose in this contest, but I'll be back here soon if Jak and DK wins there match
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

*bump*

Oops, looks like I didn't paste it. Well, charmander guessed it anyway, along with the fact that they always lose to the same character.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

I've never liked Vyse that much. I've always found him to be way too upbeat and optimistic for my liking.
---
-Phediuk

Optimistic... is bad?

No wonder no one likes Tidus.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

Vyse was a nice change of pace from the normal apathetic characters in most RPGs...
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

When is the VJ/Tails winner vs. Dante match scheduled for? Because I'm starting to worry about my Dante pick considering that the PS2 version of VJ comes out on September 24th, that could spell trouble for the Devil Hunter.
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

It would spell trouble, but isn't Dante IN the PS2 version of Viewtiful Joe?
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

It's scheduled for September 15th IIRC. He'll fight Sonic on the... 24th!
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

He's an unlockable character, and I doubt that people are going to get that far in it to unlock him by the time the match starts.
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Dante will fight Sonic, that is.

And I expect VJ to flop on PS2. That kind of games just sells better on Gamecube. See Sonic Heroes and MMAC.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

I have a good feeling that I'll be on the leaderboard after this match. I expect quite a few to fall today.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

The board chatter favors Jak...so does the pic...its gonna be a long day for the cult lovin 'earthboys'

And DK? This overblown overrated ape is done this weekend. its about time too...am really tired of him.

As for me, since Ceej had the nerve to let my thread lapse...I am takin a break from the commentary til the 2nd round starts. Not much happening til then anyway, since all but 2 of the matches are a totally easy call.

And as soon as all these perfects lose one in the coming days including today...I will be tied for the lead where I belong, so its all good...I will bide my time til I have my leaderboard glory...

That is all.
---
Steve Illumina: The Official Satirical Commentator of GameFAQ's Contests
Pub Trivian Forever...SC2K4: 17/18 (Go Jak/Vivi!)

The Top 50 means **** until day 64. Sorry, I'm in a bit of a surly mood.

*grumbles*
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

I know being #1 on the leaderboard only matters at the end of the contest, but it's always nice seeing your name up there.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"that there is statistical evidence that there exist other factors besides random variation that cause the results to not be what the extrapolated standings predict."

Although I'm not a 100% supporter of the XSt and only use them for a general idea, even the day of the week can be enough to screw over some characters. If Alucard's last match was on a day of the week that favored him a little more than usual but in 2k3 against Sephiroth he was having a bad day it could make that sort of difference.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Optimistic... is bad?

No wonder no one likes Tidus.

It explains why some people hate Sora and KH too. Disney characters tend to be light hearted...
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

Hey, I still love rubbing my pre-Link/Cloud top 10 position in all your faces.

Geesh, Ulti doesn't want us to say Laharl didn't deserve his spot, but he's reaching new levels of suck here.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

How would Laharl fall in the Extrapolateds assuming that Vyse gets 60% on him?

At Luca's level? Or lower?
---
"Hail to the king, baby."--Duke Nukem

Well, where would Laharl rank if he had been here in 2003? I expected him to be around Luca Blight's level, so Vyse getting 60% on him doesn't surprise me.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

He falls in the gap between Ness and CATS. Jesus, now THAT's suckitude.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

I think it's safe to say Laharl would be doubled by DK, who's equal to Tommy Vercetti, who got doubled by Mega Man, who lost 60-40 to Sephiroth, who lost in a close one to Cloud. Laharl's down there alright. Hate it for ya Ulti; happened with me and Perfect Dark this spring.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

So does that make Laharl weaker or stronger than Luca Blight?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Geesh, Ulti doesn't want us to say Laharl didn't deserve his spot, but he's reaching new levels of suck here.

Slow? Run. NOW.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

*hands Ulti his uzi*

*runs for cover*

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 15/16, Picked: Cloud, Voted: Cloud
VOTE LAHARL!

Technically this makes Laharl a little stronger than Luca. Not by much though.


---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

I believe Laharl would be stronger than Luca if the match ends at this percentage, which is surprising. I would've thought Luca would do better.
---
SC2K4 Score: 17/17 (Jak, Vivi). About to be owned by ____ in the guru contest (Unless Magus and Sephiroth win).

I was really expecting Luca to suck that much. But Laharl? Guess this one site didn't give Disgaea the "best game no one played" award for nothing.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 017/017 - Matches: 17/17 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Vyse - Tomorrow: Kirby

Midgar Division: Round 1 - Match 19 – (5)Kirby vs. (12)Kain

Moltar’s Analysis

Kirby
Game/Series Known From: Kirby Series
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 17th
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 25th
Seed in 2002: 14
Seed in 2003: 3
Lost in Round 1to Jill in 2002 and to Alucard in Round 2 in 2003
Most underseeded character in 2002.

Lookie! It’s the Pink Puffball Kirby. Back for another Summer Contest.

Kain
Game/Series Known From: Legacy of Kain
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A

Another newcomer who is “replacing Raziel” and CJay would put it.

Vet vs newbie? Kirby takes this easily. I would come up with a joke for this analysis but my feet hurt.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kirby will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kirby 64% - Kain 36%



Ulti’s Analysis

Most of my writeups have been short because the matches are so damned easy. Well in this case, my writeup will be short because I've never played a game in the Legacy of Kain series. I suck.

On a side note, Kirby is still on top.

Ulti’s Bracket/Prediction - Kirby/Kirby with 57.44%



Cena’s Analysis

Kirby a five seed has put me in awe, but honestly, Kain isn't nearly as popular as you might think. So the pink, floating fluffball will completely own this guy. kthxbai.

Cena's Vote: Kirby

Cena's Prediction: Kirby with 70% (Ah, Kirby has his haters, and I'm sure ertyu will vote Kain about a hundred million times)

---
Bowser vs. Guybrush - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vyse vs. Laharl - Bracket: Vyse - Vote: Vyse (16/17)

I would compliment you on the analysises you always do, Moltar, but you voted Vyse, so I have to hate you for the rest of the day.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 16/17, Picked: Vyse, Voted: Laharl
VOTE NESS!

Only 10 more hours of hate. ^_^
---
Bowser vs. Guybrush - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vyse vs. Laharl - Bracket: Vyse - Vote: Vyse (16/17)

I still perfect! TEH YAYZORZ!!!
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 18/18 Next Pick: Kirby

What's the longest a perfect bracket has lasted so far?
---
"Spira is full of death...only SIN is reborn, and then only to bring more death. It is a cycle of death, spiraling endlessly."- Auron

The Return lasted to LttP/FF6
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 18/18 Next Pick: Kirby

How many matches was that?
---
"Spira is full of death...only SIN is reborn, and then only to bring more death. It is a cycle of death, spiraling endlessly."- Auron

He lost his perfect on the 52nd match of the contest, 12 away from perfection.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

You guys always talk about these matches being within the margins of error, or being close, but I've done some statistical calculations, and to put it bluntly, you're dead wrong. These matches are way outside the margins of error.

It is a well-known fact that any binomial distribution (i.e. an event either happens or doesn't happen, and it happens a proportion p of the time, 0 <= p <= 1) very closely approximates a normal distribution after a large number of trials. In our case, a few hundred votes would be more than enough for a normal distribution

Aprosenf,
We've had this discussion in this topic before. I believe it was for the probability of Ganon defeating Magus last year.

This obviously would only apply to somehow that day being repeated (or at least, the same event being repeated not too far into the future from the original event). Not with the same voters, necessarily--but the same circumstances. Strengths change over time, and that is exactly what we mean by margin of error.

However, binomial probabilities and normal approximations do not really apply. Actual volatility is clearly far higher than what the binomial distribution would imply.

This could be for whatever reason--firstly, things involving human behavior tend to have wide distributions (e.g., the stock market--stock returns have a distribution fatter than the normal)--and also due to cheating, or some other factors.

The formula for the margin of error is (z-star)*sqrt(p*(1-p)/n). I just typed it in wrong, but I did all of my calculations using this formula (the correct one).

sqrt*(p*q*n), actually (you wrote divided by n, though you calculated it right). Just pointing this out in case anyone got confused.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Awesome, awesome match with Vyse winning. Not only does my bracket continue to stay perfect, but the character I always wanted to win with about 60% is doing just that. Good day. =)

Hopefully I'll see my name up on the leaderboard after today... maybe.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Anyway, Cloud looks like he may score 71000 votes in this poll. That's within 2000 votes of what Link scored against a much inferior opponent to Duke Nukem, yet people still talk of Link as the favorite?

Funny enough Mega Man also came within 2000 votes of Link's total. =p

I think we would be able to tell exactly who the favorite is by juding them in the next round.

Actually, you won't really be able to tell everyone's strength. You have Link getting a SFF match against Ganondorf so one of the biggest contenders won't be able to be judge exactly and then in round 3 he faces another Nintendo character. Mega Man faces Tidus so he'll get a far more accurate verdict after that. Cloud faces Vyse and Laharl, that'll be better to determine how he's done. Sephiroth faces Vivi, or DK, so that'd be better as well.

So, Link really needs to have a match against a non-Nintendo character in order to get a better idea of his strength. That could be as early as the division finals or as late as the final four.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Oh and Jak looks badass in that picture.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Cloud's only a point and a half below where the extrapolateds have him

Did he meet what they had him at? No. Was it close? Yes. Quite honestly, I'm not listening to any excuse such as "Oh he had the milk carton" or whatever else people tend to say. Cloud did not meet what he was suppose to and obviously didn't go past that. That doesn't make him doomed or anything of the sort, however, you can't possibly say he's looking great to win after seeing that.

and Duke Milk'Em's pic easily make up that difference and more. i'd bet that today, Duke officially got more pity votes than any other character in a single match. and

Cloud will probably wind up with MORE votes than Link, despite having an opponent who will get almost twice as many votes as Link's opponent.

He's actually ended with roughly 1,000 less than Link did and about 1,000 more than Mega Man did.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

You can't really tell who has the edge over who until much later in the contest.. Right now, the second round will be too many SFF matches and it's quite boring.. Except Yoshi/Luigi match..

The Bracket should go back to the way it was!

---
"I just wanna protect the people I'm with. Doesn't matter whether I can or not. It's what I believe in."
-Zidane (Final Fantasy IX)

Goodness, Cloud didn't reach 81.5, so now he's playing catch-up to Link? That's a little ridiculous.

He came within 1000 of Link despite Duke Nukem getting 7500 more than CATS, and he came closer to him than Mega Man even though his opponent pulling in 3000 more than Earthworm Jim.

Doesn't look like that loss of the casual vote has diminished the Kingdom Hearts Factor like you thought it would. Cloud still brings the voters in droves. It's the 2nd most popular poll so far. I haven't lost any confidence in him at all, and I see absolutely no reason why I should.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Goodness, Cloud didn't reach 81.5, so now he's playing catch-up to Link? That's a little ridiculous.

The figure for Cloud to be favourite clearly didn't take into account The Milk Factor.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Laharl, tomorrow: Kirby - 15/17
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

sqrt*(p*q*n), actually (you wrote divided by n, though you calculated it right). Just pointing this out in case anyone got confused.

And for those who don't know and couldn't figure it out, q = 1 - p is a standard notation.

sqrt(p*(1 - p)*n) is the standard deviation of the number of votes received by either contestant, but sqrt(p*(1 - p)*n) / n = sqrt(p*(1 - p)/n) is the standard deviation of the proportion of votes received.

Anyways, yeah, you pretty much struck the nail on the head there, cn.

By the way, after a lot of analysis, I think I've come up with a new formula for the extrapolated standings that seems to be a little more accurate: of the 9 matches so far involving two characters from last year's contest, my formula's prediction was closer to the actual result than the what the current extrapolated standings predicted 5 times, further 3 times, and about the same once. I'll give you numbers and explanations soon; I left the data at work, but I can regenerate it in not too long. I'm going out in 45 minutes so if I don't have them up by then, it might not be until later tonight. Sit tight...
---
Contest status: 16/17 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/18/2004 2:15:47 PM | Message Detail
Hey, I still love rubbing my pre-Link/Cloud top 10 position in all your faces.

Hey, I still love rubbing my Spring Contest victory in all your faces.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Hey, I still love rubbing my belly and patting my head. But that has nothing to do with the contest.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

From: swirldude | Posted: 8/18/2004 3:51:59 PM | Message Detail
The Return lasted to LttP/FF6

God dammit, people still can't remember Saitou777 being perfect until Starcraft/Wind Waker? Jesus.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I remember Saitou because he had Mario 3 winning the whole thing. I was rooting for him the whole way.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Yeah, I figured that he would lose his perfect in the Final Four.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Funny enough Mega Man also came within 2000 votes of Link's total. =p

Duke Nukem >>>> Earthworm Jim. Cloud and Link are still the favorites in this thing.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

That doesn't make Cloud doomed or anything of the sort, however, you can't possibly say he's looking great to win after seeing that.

yeah, i see no reason why Cloud and Link still wouldn't be considered equal at this point.

*yawn*

so how many brackets do you think will have Vyse? and how many perfets will be left? i'm going with 65-70% of the brackets having Vyse and then we'll have 550 - 600 perfects left. other than that, it will be amusing to see how many perfects go with Kain and Bomberman.

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

According to the XS, Duke would get 23.91 on Mega Man, as compared to Duke's 19.81 on Cloud. Due to the Duke Milk'em pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 25 from Duke against Mega Man.

According to the XS, CATS would get 17.51 on Mega Man as opposed to CATS's 12.17 on Link. However CATS underperformed against Link so the number on Mega Man would probably be closer to a 16.30

So yeah, Link and Cloud are still the definite favorites.
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Goodness, Cloud didn't reach 81.5, so now he's playing catch-up to Link? That's a little ridiculous.

There's no reason, that I see, for him to be in just the tip, top, shape he was last year. Link did nearly 1% better and Cloud did 1% worse. I'm not saying Cloud has had his coffin nailed, but he certainly doesn't look tremendously awesome in my eyes.

He came within 1000 of Link despite Duke Nukem getting 7500 more than CATS, and he came closer to him than Mega Man even though his opponent pulling in 3000 more than Earthworm Jim.

I'm aware he had a stronger opponent than both Link and Mega Man. Duke should beat both CATS and Jim, but the latter to a lesser extent.

Doesn't look like that loss of the casual vote has diminished the Kingdom Hearts Factor like you thought it would. Cloud still brings the voters in droves.

If I remember correctly he did the same thing in 2002, brought in the votes.

and I see absolutely no reason why I should.

I, repeat, I never said Cloud was screwed out of his chance to win or that Link would beat him if they faced. All I said was that he didn't meet what he was suppose for whatever reason and Link exceeded what he was expected to get. Quite frankly, I don't call "favorites" or winners until I see full proof evidence of such. I like to see later rounds when they actually face someone other than fodder and within their fanbase before making that decision, but that's just me.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Duke Nukem >>>> Earthworm Jim. Cloud and Link are still the favorites in this thing.

I wouldn't put that many after that, but hey that's just me and damn it why do you people read things so wrong? Did I ever said they weren't? Or that their position was threatened? No. None of you here are going to give Mega Man any sort of credit until he actually proves himself in the coming round or so. I'm just stating what he did, and while Duke is more than likely more popular, CATS is not. So, with that said he still pulled in almost as much as Link against a stronger opponent.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

So yeah, Link and Cloud are still the definite favorites.

This was pretty much the thought process even before the brackets were released. Simply because they've both won before and both rank 1 and 2 in the more recent standings.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Yeah, and so did Cloud, but that doesn't stop you from discrediting him because he didn't perform up to par. The fact that Cloud did very close to what he was supposed to do seems to indicate that the Kingdom Hearts Factor isn't fading like you seemed to expect.

Ganondorf underperformed against Alucard by 3% and Tidus technically overperformed against Shadow just by beating him, but somehow I doubt you would even hesitate to still put Ganon over Tidus.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Ok, I got some numbers here. First of all, the formula I'm using is the following: If X is the proportion of votes A got against B and if Y is the proportion of votes B got against C, then A would be expected to get X*Y/(X*Y + (1-X)*(1-Y)) against C. I'll explain how I came up with this later. Note that it has a few important properties: if you set X = 0.5, then you get a result of Y; if you set Y = 0.5, you get a result of X; it's also symmetric: if you swap X and Y in the equation, you get 1 minus the result, as expected.

Anyways, using that formula, here are the expected values against Cloud using the 2k3 results:
Link: 48.39% (duh, direct matchup)
CATS: 13.09% (also a direct matchup)
Ganondorf: 33.21%
Alucard: 26.23%
Yoshi: 24.91%
Ryo Hazuki: 8.55%
Luigi: 21.39%
Pac-Man: 12.92%
Crono: 36.58%
Conker: 14.34%
Tidus: 32.61% !
Shadow: 32.02% !
Tommy Vercetti: 22.58%
Max Payne: 16.27%
Master Chief: 23.06%
Crash Bandicoot: 13.23%
Knuckles: 23.00%
Kefka: 13.35%
Duke Nukem: 14.10%

Plug those back into my formula, and you get the following results (1st column is my predictions, 2nd column is current X-stats predictions, 3rd column is actual result)
Link-CATS:.............. 86.16% --- 86.47% --- 87.83%
Ganondorf-Alucard: 58.31% --- 60.31% --- 57.12%
Yoshi-Ryo Hazuki:.. 78.00% --- 76.67% --- 76.40%
Luigi-Pac-Man: ....... 64.71% --- 68.75% --- 67.73%
Crono-Conker: ....... 77.50% --- 76.21% --- 77.99%
Tidus-Shadow: ...... 50.68% --- 49.94% --- 50.81%
Tommy-Max: .......... 60.01% --- 66.32% --- 61.96%
MC-Crash: .............. 66.27% --- 66.63% --- 70.72%
Knuckles-Kefka: ..... 65.97% --- 69.63% --- 57.46%
Cloud-Duke: ........... 85.90% --- 82.14% --- 80.19%

I gotta run now, more in a few hours.

---
Contest status: 16/17 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

Hmmm....That is interesting. Your new formula puts Tidus over Shadow from the get-go. By this standard, Yoshi underperformed against Ryo and Luigi overperformed against Pac-Man.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Yeah, and so did Cloud, but that doesn't stop you from discrediting him because he didn't perform up to par.

I didn't discredit him. All I said was he didn't meet what he was suppose too, and aside from my bias you don't here me saying "OMG! Cloud is soo doomed later on!"

The fact that Cloud did very close to what he was supposed to do seems to indicate that the Kingdom Hearts Factor isn't fading like you seemed to expect.

I never said he's insanely weaker after yesterday. I had said I expected him to before and by the looks of it, if it did it wasn't by all that much.

Ganondorf underperformed against Alucard by 3% and Tidus technically overperformed against Shadow just by beating him,

I'm aware, heck I've even stated that Ganondorf underperformed many a time on the board.

but somehow I doubt you would even hesitate to still put Ganon over Tidus.

It's a close match one of them is Nintendo, one of them is Square. My pick? Everyone should know. I don't create a bracket based on bias, but when in that close I always side with bias unless there is evidence to really push the opposer more.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

That's an interesting new extrapolated standings. I think creativename said that the current extrapolated standings are correct, though. They may seem to be more accurate, but looking at Cloud's expected % against Duke Nukem makes me believe that it tends to rank fodder worse than it should, just like creativename's old formula.

I actually have some thoughts dealing with vote totals and percentages, as well. You know how Cloud is good at attracting votes? You know how Cloud increases in percentage all day against most anybody? It seems that Cloud increases all day in percentage BECAUSE of the high vote totals. Obviously, if Cloud attracts voters, they will almost all vote for Cloud, thusing raising the percentage. In fact, if you divide Duke Nukem's vote total by a more "normal" vote total, 80,000, Cloud gets only 77.97% of the vote, which is close to what the percentages were in the first several hours of the poll!

Maybe there's SOME use with that theory...I don't know. Maybe it could explain why Mario doesn't seem to do quite as well as he should against weaker characters?

Vyse is beating Laharl quite handily...I really wouldn't say that Vyse is increasing in percent because of high vote totals, though. :P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Link did nearly 1% better and Cloud did 1% worse.

Link did nearly 1% better than Cloud, but he improved by 1.35% over his own X-Sts. Cloud did 1.95% worse than his X-Sts. Sorry, I was just nitpicking ;>_>.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Vyse has been going between 60.35 and 60.4 all day. There hasn't been a lot of change in the percentages. It's been very consistent.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Link did nearly 1% better than Cloud, but he improved by 1.35% over his own X-Sts. Cloud did 1.95% worse than his X-Sts. Sorry, I was just nitpicking ;>_>.

Luckily, that's what I was sort of trying to say but I guess it came out wrong. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

But does any of this really mean anything?
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Duke Nukem isn't really fodder. He's a second rounder in a good bracket, and he performed as such against last uear's champion.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Duke's pretty much at that place where he could be a tad step up from fodder. I'd still be hard pressed to take him over anyone decent.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Jeez, Laharl is sucking it up big time.

Granted, I think he'd look a little better against a non-fodder character...

...ah, what the hell. Here's a listing of all the fodder vs. fodder matches so far (the definition of fodder being "any character who finished in the bottom 32 in 2003 or any character who was in the 2002 bracket but didn't return in 2002, excluding Strider and Morrigan):

2002:

Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami
Pikachu vs. Parappa the Rapper
Lara Croft vs. Chop Chop Master Onion
Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood
Gordon Freeman vs. Tina Armstrong
Pac-Man vs. Goemon
Abe vs. Kyo Kusanagi
Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring
Bomberman vs. Kane
Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller (the weakest match of all time)
Crash Bandicoot vs. Ulala
Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi

2003:

Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud
KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot
Pac-Man vs. Kefka
Max Payne vs. Gordon Freeman

Seems that Ceej balanced the bracket out a lot better in 2003 than in 2002.

...actually, I'm rather tempted to make the "optimum" 2002 and 2003 brackets based on the 1st ranked character facing 64th ranked, the 2nd facing the 63rd, etc...

...hmm...I'll get to work on it.
---
-Phediuk

I wouldn't put that many after that, but hey that's just me and damn it why do you people read things so wrong?

o_O

I wasn't trying to make fun of you or anything. You just mentioned Mega Man being in the same league as Link or Cloud because of him doing as well against Earthworm Jim as Cloud against Duke Nukem. Earthworm Jim is a Crash/Jak/Ratchet/Sly type of character. Good games, declining fanbase, 'happy to be here' types of entrants.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

From: GiantBlaarg | Posted: 8/18/2004 10:28:14 PM | Message Detail
Jeez, Laharl is sucking it up big time.

Say, did you hear that? It's the sound of the reaper...
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

The reaper is always one step behind me.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Based solely on opponents I suppose Earthworm Jim isn't exactly the cream of the crop. I think he's actually pretty decent as far as being fodder goes, but the fact he'd be above CATS while below Duke does make his performance at least something to compare..

...and I've always believed Mega Man was in Cloud and Link's league. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Heh. Looks like someone said something about Laharl sucking. *awaits Ulti to comment on it.*
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Just to calm Ulti down, Laharl would still get 86.44% on Tanner, holding Snake and Vyse constant and using cn's XS formula.

I would like an explanation about the new one, Apronsef. It looks very interesting.
---
Current Pick: Vyse; Current Vote: Vyse; Points: 17/17
Vyse the Legend, Leader of the Blue Rouges!

Mega Man certainly isn't weak. However, he's going to need something along the lines of Zelda 10 or Advent Children to have a chance next year.

*hears reaper*

*runs and hides*
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

We pretty much concurred that Earthworm Jim falls right around the level of Ness, which is where we figure Laharl belongs as well. Duke Nukem is only slightly weaker than Vyse, so I would expect him to beat Jim 60/40.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Mega Man certainly isn't weak. However, he's going to need something along the lines of Zelda 10 or Advent Children to have a chance next year.

I don't believe there shall be a character in this contest that will be stopping Link next year, if Zelda 10 does get that international release in June. In the upcoming year, Mega Man has Mega Man X8 and Mega Man Zero 3 (games that won't release during the contest). We're sure to see more, or hear more, but those are two confirmed ones for November and October.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Laharl would still get 86.44% on Tanner, holding Snake and Vyse constant and using cn's XS formula.

86 percent... that's around the same as Gordon Freeman, right? >>

---
Also, the women all have beards. Either that, or there are no dwarven women. Yeah, I could see that. This is Suikoden after all. -http://videogamerecaps.com

I thought GF was about 87%.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

That's actually about .56 percent BELOW Gordon. However, this is assuming that people wouldn't anti-vote Gordon. I project Gordon with 49.99 percent of the vote against Tanner.
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Laharl would still get 86.44% on Tanner, holding Snake and Vyse constant and using cn's XS formula.

86 percent... that's around the same as Gordon Freeman, right? >>

Shhh...What Ulti doesn't know won't hurt him.
---
Current Pick: Vyse; Current Vote: Vyse; Points: 17/17
Vyse the Legend, Leader of the Blue Rouges!

Plus, there is NO DOUBT in my mind that Laharl would make at least 53% on Gordon. At worst.
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Ok, I'm back. Here's an explanation of my formula. First, assume that we have independence: i.e. a vote for A over B has no effect on that person's vote of B vs. C. Suppose in a match of A vs. B, A got a proportion X of the votes (0 <= X <= 1), and suppose that in B vs. C, B got a proportion Y of the votes (0 <= Y <= 1). On the assumption of independence, we can say that X*Y of the voters voted A > B > C, X*(1-Y) voted A > B < C, (1-X)*Y voted A < B > C, and (1-X)*(1-Y) voted A < B < C. Next, assume transitivity: if a voter voted A > B and B > C, then he will always vote A > C, and similarly if a voter voted A < B and B < C, then he will always vote A < C. Thus assumption holds almost always. So, at this point, we can say that X*Y voters would vote A > C, (1-X)*(1-Y) voters would vote A < C, and we don't know about the rest of the X*(1-Y) + Y*(1-X) voters. If we assume that the proportion of those voters that voted A > C equals the overall proportion of voters that voted A > C (i.e. the people in that group are just as likely to vote A > C as the people not in that group), then the proportion of voters who would vote A > C is becomes X*Y/(X*Y + (1-X)*(1-y)). The major problems with this formula is that SFF messes up the independence assumption and the last assumption about proportion of voters in the A > B < C and A < B > C regions, and also fodder tends to be misestimated, again because of that last assumption.
---
Contest status: 16/17 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

The "optimum" 2002 bracket, all done purely from the extrapolated standings:

North Division:

1- Link
16- Mr. Driller

8- Pac-Man
9- Crash Bandicoot

5- Kirby
12- Chop Chop Master Onion

4- Claire Redfield
13- Ulala

6- Strider Hiryu
11- Parappa the Rapper

3- Solid Snake
14- Gabe Logan

7- Kasumi
10- Kyo Kusanagi

2- Sonic the Hedgehog
15- Terry Bogard

East Division:

1- Samus Aran
16- Dirk the Daring

8- Ryo Hazuki
9- Duke Nukem

5- Squall Leonheart
12- Kazuya Mishima

4- Jill Valentine
13- Aya Brea

6- Raziel
11- Q*Bert

3- Aeris Gainsborough
14- Gordon Freeman

7- Miles "Tails" Prower
10- Spyro the Dragon

2- Cloud Strife
15- Bub

South Division:

1- Mega Man
16- Serious Sam

8- Fox McCloud
9- Simon Belmont

5- Morrigan Aensland
12- Donkey Kong

4- Knuckles the Echidna
13- Iori Yagami

6- Bomberman
11- Pitfall Harry

3- Tidus
14- Goemon

7- Lara Croft
10- Little Mac

2- Crono
15- Guybrush Threepwood

West Division:

1- Sephiroth
16- Ms. Pac-Man

8- Servbot
9- Max Payne

5- Dante
12- CATS

4- Ken
13- Abe

6- Scorpion
11- Tina Armstrong

3- Ryu
14- Akira Yuki

7- Alucard
10- Pikachu

2- Mario
15- Kane

Interesting bracket. Tell me what you guys think.
---
-Phediuk

From: Seijun | Posted: 8/18/2004 10:42:44 PM | Message Detail
Laharl would still get 86.44% on Tanner, holding Snake and Vyse constant and using cn's XS formula.

86 percent... that's around the same as Gordon Freeman, right? >>

"On a side note, flat-chested women like you have absolutely no effect on me."
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

8- Servbot
9- Max Payne

Oh, dear God.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

You need to make mention of the new title she has taken on; "Queen ***** of the Universe." She is the official Kerrigan for some Starcraft army thing now XD.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Servbot would so kick some ass, heh.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

*sees who Servbot will face on the next round*

Fight Servbot! For everlasting peace!

---
Also, the women all have beards. Either that, or there are no dwarven women. Yeah, I could see that. This is Suikoden after all. -http://videogamerecaps.com

What do the Gurus have on the Viewtiful Joe vs. Tails match? I see Joe as the obvious pick but I've seen a lot of people go for Tails so far as to pick him over Dante.
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Anyone who has Tails getting any further than the 2nd round doesn't know what they're doing. He'd have enough trouble even beating the Viewtiful one, and I don't think he can even do that.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I've been very confident in Joe since I saw the bracket.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Same here... I mean Lara > Tails (as I've been saying for the last month).
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Anyone who has Tails getting any further than the 2nd round doesn't know what they're doing. He'd have enough trouble even beating the Viewtiful one, and I don't think he can even do that.

Agreed.
---
GameFAQs can gain justice from this petition! Please visit it at http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=15656619 (894 Signs!)

Here's the 2003 counterpart to the "optimum" bracket:

North Division:

1- Cloud Strife
16- Mr. Resetti

8- Donkey Kong
9- KOS-MOS

5- Bowser
12- Kite

4- Tidus
13- Kefka

6- Dante
11- Isaac

3- Magus
14- CATS

7- Kirby
10- Ken

2- Mario
15- Pikachu

East Division:

1- Mega Man
16- Tom Nook

8- Felix
9- Wario

5- Auron
12- Duke Nukem

4- Squall Leonheart
13- Fox McCloud

6- Knuckles the Echidna
11- Miles "Tails" Prower

3- Shadow the Hedgehog
14- Gordon Freeman

7- Jill Valentine
10- Lara Croft

2- Solid Snake
15- Ratchet

South Division:

1- Sephiroth
16- Captain Olimar

8- Scorpion
9- Yuna

5- Zelda
12- Conker

4- Aeris Gainsborough
13- Crash Bandicoot

6- Yoshi
11- Bomberman

3- Ganondorf
14- Pac-Man

7- Tommy Vercetti
10- Ramza Beoulve

2- Samus Aran
15- Ryo Hazuki

West Division:

1- Link
16- AiAi

8- Luigi
9- Sam Fisher

5- Ryu
12- Raziel

4- Zero
13- Max Payne

6- Alucard
11- Vyse

3- Sonic the Hedgehog
14- Ness

7- Master Chief
10- Sora

2- Crono
15- Raiden
---
-Phediuk

Heh, this board would be in an uproar seeing Tidus rip Kefka apart.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

6- Knuckles the Echidna
11- Miles "Tails" Prower

SFF'D
---
Summer Contest Match 18 Vyse vs. Laharl
Status 17/18 Points: 017 Next: Kirby vs. Kain

Aprosenf:
sqrt(p*(1 - p)*n) is the standard deviation of the number of votes received by either contestant, but sqrt(p*(1 - p)*n) / n = sqrt(p*(1 - p)/n) is the standard deviation of the proportion of votes received

Ah, I see--you were talking about percentage. I should have recognized that. Sorry.

BTW, as we mentioned in the original discussion (which was sparked by Magus vs. Ganon), another thing that increases volatility of results is that vote totals are not constant. N is not always the same. This means larger confidence intervals.

On the assumption of independence, we can say that X*Y of the voters voted A > B > C, X*(1-Y) voted A > B < C, (1-X)*Y voted A < B > C, and (1-X)*(1-Y) voted A < B < C.,

OK, I likey so far.

So, at this point, we can say that X*Y voters would vote A > C, (1-X)*(1-Y) voters would vote A < C, and we don't know about the rest of the X*(1-Y) + Y*(1-X) voters.

OK...

If we assume that the proportion of those voters that voted A > C equals the overall proportion of voters that voted A > C (i.e. the people in that group are just as likely to vote A > C as the people not in that group), then the proportion of voters who would vote A > C is becomes X*Y/(X*Y + (1-X)*(1-y)).

But what is the theoretical basis for this assumption? How can you say this proportion will remain the same?

In order to get at such a result, you have to make assumptions about what distribution the votes are taking, and then work from the properties of that distribution. As I explain on my site, the current formula is derived from assuming that each character's strength has some mean, and that individual votes are composed of a "battle" between the two charcter strength processes, which are distributed uniformly according to the character's mean strength. Of course, the original formula itself is more obvious than that, but this is why it should work.

I think this formula has good insight, but it:
*Doesn't seem to have a readily apparent theoretical basis.
*Is more complicated, at least superficially--which itself is not a flaw, but it makes it harder to people to do easy calculations, which is a big strength of the original formula.

If I ever get the chance, I'll try and use this formula and see if it gives a higher correlation between 2K2 and 2K3 results. (though, to be honest, I don't think I will get the chance) I don't expect much difference though. My old formula wasn't too dissimilar from the original formula either in terms of results, I just ditched it because it didn't make theoretical sense, and most probably found it a little more difficult to calcualte with anyway.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Ulti, who did you pick for the Vyse/Laharl matchup?
---
Sc2k4: 17 of 18
Next Match: Kirby vs. Kain

I think that (*butts in here*)

It'll be interesting (more so) to see how Cloud does against Vyse, than it was to see how he did against Duke.

Vyse probably increased by at least 2 or 3% though. If only because more people were probably exposed to skies of arcadia.
---
Score: 16/17|Todays Pick: Vyse
Tomorrows pick: Kirby|Thoughts: who sucks more?

Ulti picked Vyse, though I'm sure he was rooting for Laharl instead.
---
Supporting both Earthworm Jim AND Mega Man in 2004
Spring Contest Score: 151/192

Picked Vyse, rooted for and was insanely hoping for Laharl to surprise me. Oh well, I still have a perfect bracket. And I fully expect it to remain in tact after the overhyped nonsense that is Ness vs Jak in a few days.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

OK, now I have to ask. Why do people think Viewtiful Joe can beat Tails, but that Jak wouldn't? They're both fairly popular action titles, and while Joe is a Beat'em up and Jak and Daxter is more of a platformer (I'm not sure you can qualify Jak II as just a platformer though) I don't see why that means Joe would do better than Jak would.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

Joe has fanboys, Jak doesn't.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Joe has fanboys, Jak doesn't.

...

I guess that makes sense.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

"Interesting bracket. Tell me what you guys think."

Did you account for SFF?

"I've been very confident in Joe since I saw the bracket."

Same

"And I fully expect it to remain in tact after the overhyped nonsense that is Ness vs Jak in a few days."

I put my stamp of guarentee on that one. It's in the bag, man.

"Why do people think Viewtiful Joe can beat Tails, but that Jak wouldn't?"

It's based on the fanbases that those two hit with. Viewtiful Joe may be a zany game that can appeal to the younger ones, but it appeals more to older gamers. It has an old-school feel to it while looking awesome.

On the other hand, Jak just isn't going to hit with the older audiences. The way I see it he's really for the kiddies, no matter what his current image is, and like all "good" platformers the kiddies aren't enough to give you real strength. We are severely lacking on the demographic that Jak is aimed at. We are most abundant of the demographic that VJ is aimed at. VJ may not have the sales numbers, but if I do recall correctly he put up numbers much like Castlevania SotN which is more than enough for here.

We know sales mean little because we know our demographics are disproporional from those of actual consumers. For this fact 2.4 million Jak fans doesn't mean much more than 350k Joe fans.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Match XVII: (1) Cloud vs. (16) Duke Review

Cloud beat Duke, 80.19% - 19.81%

Well this match was expected, but the vote totals were pretty high for a boring blowout. I guess Final Fantasy characters attract more voters where it’s either for or against them. Nothing really special happen except that Duke’s picture was a box of milk instead of his body and that Cloud underperformed a little which can easily is explained from a margin of error and milkem. Also three perfects actually got this match wrong; I guess we won’t see perfect perfects until Sephiroth vs. Sly.

Now that brings up the question who is the favorite to win this contest. Is it Cloud or Link? Well Cloud underperformed by 1% and Link overperformed by 1%, but there matches were against fodders (well Duke is one step away from it) so that really doesn’t explain much and we still haven’t seen Sephiroth perform yet so I guess we can only detriment the winner in round 4 or maybe even round 5 since there are going to be a few SFF matches in this bracket.

---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

Match XIX: (5) Kirby vs. (12) Kain Preview

Past Performances:

Kirby: 2002

Lost to Jill, 46.66% - 53.34%
Ranked: 17th

Kirby: 2003

Defeated Ramza, 57.66% - 42.34%
Lost to Alucard, 47.79% - 52.21%
Ranked: 25th

Kain: 2002

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Kain: 2003

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis:

Kirby is from the Kirby series. Kirby is one of the board favorite characters. Kirby has performed well in both tournaments. In 2002 he lost to Jill in the first round, but Kirby was very underseeded and came in third in the weak south division. In 2003 he easily won on what thought to be a close match against Ramza, but lost to Alucard in the second round in a close match. To us Kirby is our favorite little pink puffball, but don’t you think that make Kirby weak. He is a middle tier character and will usually win at least one match in one of these tournaments and from the looks of it this year is no exception.

Kain is from Legacy of Kain. Kain is another new character in this contest though he had someone else that was in the contest before, Raziel so I’ll talk about Raziel. Raziel lost twice in the first round first he lost to Strider in the closest match in the first round in 2002 and 2003 he lost to Sephiroth, but the weird thing was that he got exactly 18% against Sephiroth. Raziel isn’t really a strong character, but weaker characters from last year came, but having Kain in instead is okay. In my opinion I think that Kain would be stronger then Raziel because at least his name is mention in his game and a few people might think he’s from FFIV. Even though Kirby would beat Raziel I think that Kain will shorten the gap, but the question is by how much?

Well it looks like Raziel has token a break from these contests and has given Kain the opportunity to have a match in these contests. Who has the best chance of winning? Well let me just say this, even aya pee 001 has Kirby beating Kain. So I guess we know who the favorite is, but how much will everyone (well almost) favorite puffball will beat Kain by? Now that should be interesting.

Well looking at the stats last year Kirby would beat Raziel 65%-35% so that already gives him the advantage, but the question is, is Kain stronger or weaker then Raziel. Well I say he’s stronger since 1. His name is mention on the game title 2. People might confuse him with the other Kain from Final Fantasy IV (if people voted for Raiden because they thought it was someone else then why can’t they mistake Kain). Though this match could end up being closer then people think, but Kirby is going to win.

Well this match might end up upsetting people because they won’t believe that Kain would break 40% against Kirby, but it is most likely he will and two things will happen 1. The Kirby fans will whine 2. aya pee 001 will rejoice and will say Kirby es dum, over and over again. Well it looks like our favorite puffball will start on a rocky start, but he will most likely make it to the second round.

Charmander’s Bracket: Kirby

Charmander’s Prediction: Kirby wins, 58.88% - 41.12%

---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

You have obviously never played Jak II if you think he's for kiddies.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Jak just isn't going to hit with the older audiences

Er, and Ness is?

Honestly though, i think Jak has a target audience at an age high enough where Ness is going to have to rely on the kidy vote. Which is pretty sad, for a cult character.

And if Ness does win, if its even remotely close I'm just going to attribute it to the "Pick whatever guy's name came first" factor.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

You have obviously never played Jak II if you think he's for kiddies.

I was thinking exactly the same thing. If you based your pick of Ness over Jak on the assumption that Jak only appeals to kids, I think you're in for a surprise.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

Accuracy of the XS: 20XX Division

Winner/XS Pred/Actual/Difference
Tidus _ 49.94 _ 50.81 _ +0.87
Tommy 66.32 _ 61.96 _ -4.36
MChief _66.63 _ 70.72 _ +4.09
Knux _ 69.63 _ 57.46 _ -12.17

Only 4 matches with two returning characters, but what a bad 4 matches they were for the XS. The closest one, Tidus/Shadow, wasn't off by much, but it did predict the wrong winner. Tommy underperformed by quite a bit, probably due to the fact that he's a one hit wonder that will never see the light of day again. MC/Crash was interesting: Did Crash fall (he hasn't put out anything decent in years), or did MC rise, with Halo 2 hype and diminished XBox hate? We may not know for a while, as Frog won't tell us much next round.

And then there's Kefka/Knux. I've done enough speculating already, so I'll stay out of that, but this match has serious ramifications for Luigi/Yoshi and, to a lesser extent, Sonic/Samus and Vivi/DK. Suffice to say that something is very wrong with the XS here, and make up your own theory.

Pity only one of the 3 good matches in this division had returning characters: Liquid/Frog and Snake/Tanner were both excellent for completely opposite reasons.
---
Current Pick: Kirby; Current Vote: Kirby; Points: 18/18
Go, O Pink Puffball! Falcom PAUNCH!

I don't think Tommy dropped much, actually. Max Payne just increased because of his new game, about as much as Dante did with DMC2.
---
SC2K4 Score: 17/17 (Jak, Vivi). About to be owned by ____ in the guru contest (Unless Magus and Sephiroth win).

Knuckles vs Kefka is weird. Kefka was a lot stronger than the rankings would of shown, mostly because of the similar fanboys he shared with Crono and lost to Crono. But Knuckles still HAS to be a bit weaker. Lets just say I am happy with my Luigi over Yoshi pick and kind of scared on my Sonic over Dante pick.

Lets just say I am happy with my Luigi over Yoshi pick and kind of scared on my Sonic over Dante pick.

Luigi wont beat Yoshi. Yoshi is the fan favorite between those two. Sonic over Dante will happen, though.
---
Sc2k4: 17 of 18
Next Match: Kirby vs. Kain

Ryu is more of a threat to Sonic than Dante. It would cost more points, too.
---
Current Pick: Kirby; Current Vote: Kirby; Points: 18/18
Go, O Pink Puffball! Falcom PAUNCH!

Ryu over Dante will happen, if that is what you meant.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

If Sonic can beat Ryu, he can definitely beat Dante. We already saw last year that Ryu was stronger than Dante.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Luigi wont beat Yoshi. Yoshi is the fan favorite between those two.

And what do you base that on? The poll where Yoshi is the most popular character? Then why did he lose to Bowser? The board opinion? Then why didn't Kefka win? The XS? They're so screwed up here that Luigi becomes on par with Solid Snake.
---
Current Pick: Kirby; Current Vote: Kirby; Points: 18/18
Go, O Pink Puffball! Falcom PAUNCH!

And Yoshi becomes par with God. Yoshi wins.
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

"Er, and Ness is?"

His cultish fanbase is quite a bit older. And really, I think that SSBM is going to hit harder with the older audience than Jak. A platformer is still in a sense a platformer, which is why Conker can't reach much higher than he has for the time being. Jak will do better than Ratcher, but I don't see it being that much better.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Actually, VJ sold substantially less than SotN, less than half as much. VJ is the 45th best-selling game on the Cube, under such fantastic games as Kirby's Air Ride and Spyro: Enter the Dragonfly. It'll be interesting to see if Air Ride can increase Kirby's strength at all.

Eh, not quite. The extrapolated rankings make Luigi look stronger than Yoshi based on this summer's results. It's obvious that's something is off though, so we'll have to wait until the match.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

And really, I think that SSBM is going to hit harder with the older audience than Jak.

Eh, if it were any character other than Ness I'd agree with you. Ness is kiddy even in the SSBM games - I don't think it particularly won him a lot of fans, especially since he was toned down so much from the original. A sucky character with a cultish game, even when camoed in a game for odler audiences, still has some problems.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

I still don't see much of a difference between Ness and Pikachu. Just because one has a cult fanbase doesn't mean he isn't cursed with the same "hatred factor."
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

Yeah, that's basically like saying Kirby will win the vote of the older gamers against Kain just because of his appearance in Melee.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I'm not saying that Ness doesn't have problems, but unlike Bowser there's nothing about Jak that stops Ness from pulling in SSB votes. Ness has problems, but he can also draw from a source he simply couldn't tap when he was against Bowser. Not SFF in the strictest sense, yet capable oh hindering Ness from his full performance. Ness has a lot more ammo for Jak than he did for Bowser.

And believe me, I didn't hesitate for a second to take Bowser over ness because I knew it was so.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

The only way to describe it is SFF. Specifically, SSB/M SFF, impacted by the fact that people know where Bowser is from aside from SSB/M while they don't all know where Ness is from.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

*sigh*
Even the most experienced analysts continue to believe everyone who played SSB will vote for Ness. Tell me, when will the madness end?
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

"Just because one has a cult fanbase doesn't mean he isn't cursed with the same "hatred factor.""

What makes Ness hated in the way Pikachu is hated? I he secretly the annoyingly cute lead of an animated series and "star" of games the sell in the millions without trying?

"Yeah, that's basically like saying Kirby will win the vote of the older gamers against Kain just because of his appearance in Melee."

Kain, unlike Jak, has a strong draw to the older audience. Really, don't be so daft. Platformers as a genre don't really appeal to older audiences as much, and Jak doesn't have the M rating Conker had to even begin to shift that stigma. As I said before, a platformer is a platformer, and it's hard to avoid that fate when you're a young one to boot.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I agree that Ness now has nothing preventing him from grabbing SSB/M votes. I just dont think there will be all that many. Ness is annoying at best, and in SSBM he's a pain of a character to try to use. Any SFF he had against Bowser last year was minimal at best.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Most people who played SSB will vote Ness, at least, over Jak of all people.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"Even the most experienced analysts continue to believe everyone who played SSB will vote for Ness."

If that were the case I'd put Ness into round 3, given that SSBM beat FFX, but that is not the case. Really, if you think anyone has said that you need reading comprehension lessons.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

He needs a vast majority of people who played Melee to vote for him here. I honestly don't think he'll get it, but we'll find out in a few days.
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

if anything SSBM would make Ness less popular. He went from one of the strongest in the game to probably one of the weakest
---
Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

Really, play Jak II. The game was designed, targeted, and advertised for older audiences.

To say that a character like Ness can win the older vote over a character like Jak seems somewhat ludicrous to me.

And just for kicks, both of the new generation platformers that would appeal to the older audiences, Conker and Crash, are still stronger than Ness.

And before you get onto me again, I refuse to acknowledge significant SFF until I see it with my own eyes.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Maybe against another SSB/M character. But against someone from a different series, the exposure just helps for the most part.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"I just dont think there will be all that many."

And people thought SSBM couldn't beat FFX let alone take it's division. Ness won't benefit that much, but he has a lot of room for improvement with those SSB votes. Hell, if they account for an additional 5000 votes that he didn't get in 2k3 Ness is lookin' good. That'd put him above Fox at the least, and that'd give Ness a nearly 65/35 split on Ratchet. If he missed out on that small of a number in 2k3 due to facing Bowser of all the unlucky draws then Jak will have to be twice as strong as Ratchet to win. I think Jak will be better than Ratchet, but I don't think it'll be by that much.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"He needs a vast majority of people who played Melee to vote for him here."

To beat Auron. If you're implying that Jak is on Auron's level I may have to stab your eyes out.

"if anything SSBM would make Ness less popular."

If DMC2 had actually lowered Dante I might believe that.. the fact that DMC2 increased Dante's strength puts such a thougth out of mind.

"And before you get onto me again, I refuse to acknowledge significant SFF until I see it with my own eyes."

Yeah, they said that about Kefka...
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

So I take it you can explain why Pac-Man performed like there was no SFF? Let's not even get into that endless chain again. I actually did think that Kefka did suffer SFF against Crono. I just don't see it with Ness though.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

And people thought SSBM couldn't beat FFX let alone take it's division.

I did, and I had full confidence in it. I also realize there's a massive difference between the actual game and Ness. It's like comparing the Death Star to a storm trooper.
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

Hmm... Even these optimum brackets aren't perfect. The 2002 has a 5-12 upset with DK vs. Morrigan...

Those brackets are pretty good, though. Looking at the 2003 one, some of those matches would be a devil to pick, for example...

Round 1:
DK vs. KOS-MOS
Tidus vs. Kefka (wishful thinking on the part of Bormun that FF fans won't go as far as to vote Tidus over Kefka... *bursts into tears*... Okay, I'm over it. But maybe it'll be close? Sorta? Kinda? Please?)
Kirby vs. Ken (I'm not sure we still have any idea where Kirby truly stands as far as popularity goes)
Felix vs. Wario (Wow... A match between 2003's biggest overacheiver and 2003's biggest underacheiver. Anyone have any idea how this one would go?)
Jill vs. Lara (an odd match, to be sure...)
Scorpion vs. Yuna (Scorpion vs. Auron will be a bit of an indicator on this one, though)
Vercetti vs. Ramza (GTA vs. FF... Can you feel the power of the anti-voters?)
Master Chief vs. Sora (this bracket has some awesome 7 vs. 10 matches)
(These were the only obvious ones to me... Any more?)

Round 2:
Bowser vs. Tidus (Tidus faces against his first proven icon that some might feel he has a chance against... How would he do?)
Auron vs. Squall (This match would be awesome)
Knuckles vs. Shadow (Two straight SFF matches for Knux? You guys'd be furious! I think this has potential to be close, though, Shadow's a new character, and Knux has never truly been tested thanks to Snake)
Zelda vs. Aeris (A legit second round match... And both of them didn't make this year's contest. Rage.)
Ryu vs. Zero (We don't seem to have a true handle on either)

Then, sadly, things get far more predictable as the Noble Nine rear their ugly heads. The only interesting round 3 matchup is Sonic vs. Crono... maybe, if you're really stretching it, Samus vs. Ganondorf. But the predictability of the third round will always be an issue in these contests.

This does show, though, that you don't have to fudge the seeding to make the matchups interesting.

The best way to do it, however, would be to eliminate excess fodder. Like... All those who have proven themselves wusses in contest play, but still keep getting nominated back in. I'm lookin at you, Bandicoot.
---
Hmph.

"So I take it you can explain why Pac-Man performed like there was no SFF?"

See, that's the thing, there was reason to believe Kefka didn't get SFF and you just pointed it out... on the otherhand there is some reason to believe Ness may have.

I do have a theory, though, and it may very well be that Fodder actually performs better with more casual vote. If you will note, in what year was the fodder the strongest? 2k3. Is that the year with the highest vote totals? Yep. This year seems to be one of the lowest, though spring and 2k2 were also quite low. What sort of fodder came out of those three contests? Mr. Driller, Ms Pac-Man, Adventure, Tanner and more. As strange as it may be, it may very well be possible that casual voters are more likely to give pity votes to the losers.

Pac-Man is fodder, and he also appeals to casuals, Kefka is borderline but can be placed with the mid-carders rather easily and doesn't really appeal to the casuals. As a result with 2k3 showing very high casual voter levels Pac gets an extreme boost he is otherwise incapable of. With casuals down Pac falls back into place and Kefka remains relatively untouched once SFF is accounted for.

For this reason Ratchet may even be over-rated as is, and while I do believe Jak will be stronger he may in fact have more work ahead of him than expected.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

You know, if you're going to make an optimum bracket, you want the 1st to face the 8th in the quarterfinals, not the 5th. Unless Mario was 8th in SC2K3 and I am amnesiac.
---
Because how could I not do this foribidden thing, when it feels so good!

Just for the hell of it, I did the "optimum" bracket for the Spring Contest as well.

North Division:

1- Final Fantasy VII
16- Adventure

8- Super Metroid
9- Perfect Dark

5- Metroid Prime
12- Metal Gear

4- Kingdom Hearts
13- Pac-Man

6- Metal Gear Solid
11- Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal

3- The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
14- Duck Hunt

7- Goldeneye
10- Tetris

2- Super Mario Bros. 3
15- Gunstar Heroes

East Division:

1- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
16- Phantasy Star IV

8- Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
9- Sonic the Hedgehog 2

5- Half-Life
12- Fire Emblem

4- Super Mario World
13- Dance Dance Revolution

6- Super Mario RPG
11- Metroid

3- Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
14- Panzer Dragoon Saga

7- Super Mario 64
10- Skies of Arcadia

2- StarCraft
15- Pitfall

South Division:

1- Chrono Trigger
16- NiGHTS into dreams...

8- Mortal Kombat
9- Xenogears

5- Final Fantasy
12- Phantasy Star

4- Soul Calibur
13- The Simpsons

6- Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
11- Secret of Mana

3- Final Fantasy X
14- Pong

7- Street Fighter II
10- Shenmue

2- Super Smash Bros. Melee
15- Shining Force

West Division:

1- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
16- River City Ransom

8- Doom
9- Contra

5- Metal Gear Solid 2
12- Suikoden II

4- The Legend of Zelda
13- Fallout 2

6- Final Fantasy Tactics
11- Resident Evil

3- Halo
14- Donkey Kong

7- Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
10- Earthbound

2- Final Fantasy VI
15- Galaga

Damn...lots of incredibly tough matches in there. How would this contest play out?
---
-Phediuk

You know, if you're going to make an optimum bracket, you want the 1st to face the 8th in the quarterfinals, not the 5th. Unless Mario was 8th in SC2K3 and I am amnesiac.

I was originally going to do that, but I decided it would take too long. Hence why "optimum" is in quotation marks. It's just a throwaway idea from me anyway.
---
-Phediuk

8- Super Metroid
9- Perfect Dark

Not close...

8- Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
9- Sonic the Hedgehog 2

rather close

6- Super Mario RPG
11- Metroid

very close

8- Mortal Kombat
9- Xenogears

Pretty close

6- Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
11- Secret of Mana

Much closer than expected

8- Doom
9- Contra

Not by much

7- Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
10- Earthbound

Closer than expected

Everything else goes as planned in round 1.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

5- Metroid Prime
4- Kingdom Hearts

I'm thinkin' MP woul dhave done better had it not faced WW.

5- Final Fantasy
4- Soul Calibur

Another 5 over four... FF fanboys would probably pull through on a close one here.

The remainder goes exactly as planned, except a possible FFT over Halo upset.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Hmm... Goldeneye vs. Tetris might be close.

The issue with first round spring contest matches is that there was so much fodder.
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Hmph.

We lost what appears to be 154 perfects. And 4 Zero brackets as well. This leaves us at 650 Perfects and a scant 16 Zeros.
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2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

I can't argue with you regarding the whole "3 close matches in the second round" thing. I don't see the MGS games really challenging, and all the others won't be close at all.

The thing with game contests is that there are probably less than ten games in every generation that actually make a lasting impact, and are remembered in years later as great games... No other old stuff can really do anything in the contest, and it's the newer games that we remember better that end up stronger. Issue is, they're not strong enough to compete with the truly great games of days gone by... It's an irritating thing, contestwise.
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Hmph.

66.71% chose Vyse to win. I was expecting somewhere around 65 myself, so it isn't too bad, although I would have liked to see it lower...
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My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

"I would have liked to see it lower..."

Same here, at this rate we may still have 150 by the end of the division if Vivi/DK and Ness/Jak are 50/50. In all liklihood they are not.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Oh, missed something, Chichiri... The winner of SMRPG/Metroid would give Vice City a fight.
---
Hmph.

My hopes are high, though, that KOS will takequite a few down with her. Being the second upset of the contest and all, seedwise, it'd make sense to take a few with it.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Oh, yeah... Ya did kinda mess up the S-Curve on the optimum bracket. Damn.
---
Hmph.

For those of you who are saying that Bowser/Ness had SFF, let me ask you a question.

Do you believe that Sora/Aeris had SFF? If so, then how much? If you don't think so, explain why it's different from Bowser/Ness.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

KOS-MOS/Ryu will probably end up having a closer prediction percentage, at least, than you might think.
---
Hmph.

Do you believe that Sora/Aeris had SFF? If so, then how much?

Yep. Enough that Sora is a real threat to the winner of Ryu/Jill, in fact.
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Hmph.

Er, Kirby is beating the crap out of Kain right now...70-30 is quite a whipping. Considering Kirby will likely only do better come daylight, this is a bit more of a blowout than i expected...
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2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Eh, there's no reason to believe that Kain is much stronger than Raziel. What would Kirby be expected to get against him?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I was also thinking KOS-MOS would cause cause several brackets to stumble. All the pieces are set, now I just hope that enough bracket makers took the bait...
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My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.

Well, Kirby has room to lose as much as 5% before Kain looks comparable to Raziel... It'll probably happen, but clearly Kain was no better than Raziel and may still be worse.

Really, some of those noms had to be for Kain Highwind, I'm sure of it.

And while minor I do think some SFF might have existed in KH. Frankly, however, Aeris' role is exceptionally minor in that game while on the otherhand Ness is featured basically as much as Bowser. For that reason SFF is less meaningful to Sora/Aeris than Bowser/Ness. The ssbm characters really recieve about the same billing and it's their backgrounds that give one the advantage over another, as per Bowser having an advantage over Ness.

Again, I don't want to call it SFF in the strictest sense as it seems more like Bowser prevented Ness from using his secret weapon as opposed to actually taking many votes away from Ness.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

On a side note, I'm disappointed that I'm still not on the leaderboard. I doubt many perfects will fall today or tomorrow, so I'll have to wait until Jak wins to await an appearance.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

65/35

though this board is full of Kirby fans
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Summer 2004 Contest 17/17 Laharl vs. Vyse

Score-Brackets-% Right
17----794------80.604534
16----4105-----75.2984166
15----7652-----69.0669106
14----8273-----67.3395383
13----6162-----64.3135346
12----3543-----60.4007903
11----1617-----57.6376005
10----594------54.2087542
9-----199------58.2914573
8-----82-------50.0000000
7-----23-------65.2173913
6-----11-------72.7272727
5-----6--------16.6666667
4-----9--------55.5555556
3-----31-------35.483871
2-----43-------18.6046512
1-----57-------17.5438596
0-----20-------20.0000000

Another nice job by the perfects and zeros. Both did well above the average.

Today 12 people fell off the top 50. Seven of them are AlecTrevelyan006, Flame Strike, ChRoNoBrOc, AceJayZako, DarkHawk202, MedigoMeteo and The Last Swordsman. I thought MedigoUltima and MedigoMeteo were identical except for the winner, guess not.

The last five are the five gurus: nifboy, Ringworm, charmander6000, DomaDragoon and former #1 Team Rocket Elite who lead for 15 days. They will be greatly missed. But life goes on and I'm sure this won't be the last we see of these five. Congrats go to Muchorattler who now leads the top 50 in first place.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

7- Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
10- Earthbound


What's with FFTA getting to beat awesome RPGs?

Also is FF1/PS1 a set-up? Because I found it funny.
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Because how could I not do this foribidden thing, when it feels so good!

I think it's reasonable to expect more perfects to have Kain than duke or Tanner. Bomberman over Squall seems like a long-shot, but I could see 2-3 perfects dropping off the top 50 before Ness/Jak.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Yup this isn't the last you've seen of me

If I get the rest of round 1 right then you shall see me again
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Summer 2004 Contest 17/18 Kirby vs. Kain

"If I get the rest of round 1 right then you shall see me again"

I'm afraid, as I told you before, that's not happening. Nothing against ya pal, but it's jus tnot happening.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

While we're on the Spring Contest... rate this 8-bit division I thought of in the bathroom:

1. Super Mario Bros. 3
16. Phantasy Star

8. Kirby's Adventure
9. Punch Out!!

5. Tetris
12. Duck Hunt

4. MegaMan 2
13. Metroid

6. Super Mario Bros. 1
11. Donkey Kong

3. Final Fantasy
14. Pong

7. Contra
10. TLoZ2: The Adventure of Link

2. The Legend of Zelda
15. Galaga
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Because how could I not do this foribidden thing, when it feels so good!

Major -'s for removing Metal Gear. It may not have stayed the test of time, but in its day it was about as big as Metroid. Add to that the fact that it's not even the weakest in its division (beating out Donkey Kong, Duck Hunt, Pong and Galaga with ease) by a long shot and you have made a serious snub.

Additional -'s for not adding Master Blaser, TMNT the arcade game, Crystalis, Castlevania 1 or 3, any Dragon Warrior game, Gauntlet, Kid Icarus, Ninja Gaiden, Strider or any of the other dozen of games that could do as well as/better than Galaga (hello, Goonies 2 and Yo! Noid).
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I knew something slipped my mind. Heck, I was thinking "Galaga? Why Galaga?", but my brain was slow enough to NOT tell me "MEAL GEAR, DUMBASS!", or anything like that.
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Because how could I not do this forbidden thing, when it feels so good!

From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/19/2004 3:08:47 AM | Message Detail
Do you believe that Sora/Aeris had SFF? If so, then how much?

Yep. Enough that Sora is a real threat to the winner of Ryu/Jill, in fact.

*dies laughing*
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

We're down to 640 brackets. I wonder how many will have perfect first rounds?
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I think around 100-200 brackets, no more.
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Points in the S2k4C: 17/18
Next pick: Kirby

I'm guessing 50. Getting past Ness vs Jak and Vivi vs DK unscathed isn't going to be that common.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

How many in this topic have Ness, DK, Sora, Ryu H, and Sam Fisher?
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I have Vivi and am thoroughly confident I will pull through this round with a perfect. We can't know who will win that until the time comes.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Vivi too but I am not perfect.
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Points in the S2k4C: 17/18
Next pick: Kirby

Vivi, and im far from perfect
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police toilet stolen, cops have nothing to go on
THE-KiRBY-ARMY<("<)<( " )> (>")> Member no.56

I want to chat with people on AIM... I am bored. Is there even still a chat on AIM or did it asplode?
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

How many in this topic have Ness, DK, Sora, Ryu H, and Sam Fisher?

I have all of those except for Donkey Kong.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace!

500th post will be mine!
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police toilet stolen, cops have nothing to go on
THE-KiRBY-ARMY<("<)<( " )> (>")> Member no.56

nah.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Oops.
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"Sorry, I see no difference between the NES and SNES so I really don't care if you ****ing sig me." -- imdapartystar

That honor belongs to me my friend.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

see?
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal