We'll need this topic soon, considering how close this match is.

Stats websites:

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm

Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats5.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats6.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats7.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats8.htm

MMXcalibur's Site:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Go Kefka.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
Solstice (NES) World Record Holder

Wow.. Kefka is.. wow...
---
BIGPUN999 is all man, even in the bedroom *Tee Hee*
There you go you snot nosed punk!

do square characters in general to better during the day or night as far as voting goes?
---
The greatest gamer to ever live.

Square characters tend to do better at night.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Does this speak bad for Sonic against Ryu?

Sure hope so. Upset number 2 operational.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Does this mean Tails will lose?

Damn.
---
Supporter of Sora for SC2K4!
freewebs.com/imdapartystar

how come this is so empty?
---
"irony is when your mom irons ur clothes and when you put them on they smell 'irony'" -meteormaster

Heh. Nice to see the topic up.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Almost to 500 in the other topic.
---
Contest status: 13/14 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

From: imdapartystar | Posted: 8/15/2004 2:37:32 AM | Message Detail
Does this mean Tails will lose?

Damn.

Look at the extrapolated rankings. Tails is under Lara Croft. There is no way Joe is less popular than Lara. So yeah, I'd say Tails is screwed.

---
Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Hmm....in the past 15 minutes, Knuckles has gotten 60.6 percent of the vote. Which means that if Kefka manages to keep that percentage from dropping radically, this match will end up with Kefka above 40 percent for sure.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Yeah.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Yay! I got my first 500th post in a topic.
---
I chose the road less traveled -- now where the heck am I?
A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words, But It Uses Up a Thousand Times the Memory

Tag
---
As I Walked Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death... I got Tired.

Yay, now we got duplicates. Blizzard failed to do its job... again. ;)

As I was saying, Sonic characters still seem to be the best at the day vote... but then what happened with Shadow? Did he take a day off or what?
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

hey, if anyone could help it'd be appreciated.... What was Knuckles's lead at 9:00 EST?
---
SC2k4 Winner: Sephiroth
Status: 15/15 Next Pick: Solid Snake

ok we're back
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

Sonic will still perform well. Knuckles just did little better than expected. Sonic will beat Ryu and get to Samus atleast. You're making a mountain out of a molehill if you ask me.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

06:01:53 7381 8433 46.67% 53.33% 1052

Is the closest thing we have
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

IOW, ~1050
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

I still believe Ryu is going to perform very nicely against Sonic in round 2.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Like what, 47%? I say 42, I've been saying it since the beginning.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

I still think it will be around 45%
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

Well the good news is my Luigi>Yoshi pick is looking nice, but the bad news is my Tails>Joe pick is looking terrible.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

I do as well... actually I hope Ryu wins. Just Sonic is a stronger character. Knuckles not doing as well as you had hoped doesn't mean he is going down in a hail of gunfire was my point.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

I think Ryu could take Sonic in Round 2.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Well, the vote patterns don't always go as planned, but in general, Sega is the king of the day vote, for whatever the reason. Knuckles is owning the day vote against Kefka.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Around the 45-47% area, yes. At the very least he would have been expected to get 44% last year.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

I don't know I would say Ryu will get around 40.9% no greater than 43%.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

we should get a better idea after Knuckles vs. Solid Snake
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

I don't know I would say Ryu will get around 40.9% no greater than 43%.

There's no reason for Ryu to do worse against Sonic than he did against Snake last year (42%).
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

thank you: heh, was asking because I predicted Knuckles with a 1,000 vote lead by 9 eastern, and it happened.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Sephiroth
Status: 15/15 Next Pick: Solid Snake

So does anybody think Luigi could beat Knuckles in a match?

Since Knuckles isn't that much stronger than Vercetti or DK,
I think Luigi would win with his performance against Pac-man and Kefka's performance against Knux. Vercetti only got 61% on Max Payne and Luigi got 67%. on Pac-man.
---
Current SC2k4 Score: 13/14
Next match: Kefka vs Knuckles

If Luigi manages to beat Yoshi, then being able to beat Knuckles would be highly possible as well.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

It just seems to me that Street Fighter won't do as well... just a sneaking suspicion based on just about nothing.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Why? There's even a Street Fighter game coming out here in the next couple of days.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

I'm not sure... it's not like SMS' release helped Mario tremendously against Cloud, Crono and Link two years ago.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

Er, nevermind it got pushed back to August 31st instead of August 16th.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Well that just proves how uninformed I am. My bad. So I guess I agree with you now HM. You've done your job well.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Street fighter doesnt look to be doing very well this year, in spring it *cough* ahem. WAS TOTALLY CHEATED BY TEH STOOPEDED MAROIZ GAYMEZ!...excuse me.

Basicly it lost the first round with like... 40% was it? or less?

Last year Ken and Ryu were in, this year its only Ryu, ken got shafted.

I dont see him getting better.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

It could potentially help Ryu out, but at the very least it should keep him at the level he was last year.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

And all the Zelda games lost in the Elite 8, Link must be screwed in his division.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Link also had a game in every division, which all got to the division finals (cept WW, heh, what a match)

Plus Link has no real competition in his division at all.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

All I'm trying to say is, using the Spring Contest and transferring it over to the Summer Contest is stupid.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

games =/= characters

Or else Megaman, Metroid and Sonic games would do really well in the contest. Not even one Megaman game made it.
Which is really sad.....
---
Current SC2k4 Score: 13/14
Next match: Kefka vs Knuckles

Its not "stupid" although it probobly wont work in many situations. But each year another Chrono Trigger character made it into this contest, and Chrono Trigger came 2nd in spring. So games dont always nesicarly =/= Characters. also, why didnt Ken make in this year? probobly cause over time street fighter is losing its popularity. Sonic made it as a 1 seed this time around also. Dont underestimate him.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

I thought we all agreed the seedings were awful.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Just because a character doesn't make it into the contest doesn't mean he's weak. Ken Masters would own Ryo, who's been in all 3 contests.

I'd imagine that the number of people who nominate and the number of people who vote aren't even close to the same.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

well, if you did i wasnt here when you did.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

also, why didnt Ken make in this year? probobly cause over time street fighter is losing its popularity.

A lot of characters who were decently strong should have made it in but didn't. Ken is the same way, but ranked around 40th so him not being here isn't as looked at. Though if your going to use the Spring Contest you might as well comment on how Street Fighter II ranked ahead of Sonic 2.

Sonic made it as a 1 seed this time around also. Dont underestimate him.

And? The seeding is screwed up, there's no sense in relying on them at all.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Though if your going to use the Spring Contest you might as well comment on how Street Fighter II ranked ahead of Sonic 2.

Mario World >>>>>>>>> Mario Rpg

Thats why.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

why didnt Ken make in this year?

That's because we've seen Ken enough times so SF fans nominated someone else, but some probably stayed making it not enough nominations. It's the same reason why Pikachu isn't in the contest.
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

So what? Mario RPG would beat Sonic 2 by more than it beat Street Fighter II, and Mario World would do worse against SFII.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Mario World >>>>>>>>> Mario Rpg

They really weren't all that far apart in the standings. Your logic on Street Fighter "falling" because Ken didn't get in is about as good as saying Final Fantasy VII is falling because we don't see Aeris.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Look at the results from last year. DK beat Vyse last year yet DK is a lower seed. Kirby has a higher seed than Alucard and Alcard beat Kirby. There are all sorts of inconsistancies all over the bracket. One everyone is aware of is Sephiroth as a 2 seed. Can't say I'm mad about it. 4 character from the 4 leading game companies as 1 seeds makes me happy, just Sephiroth is stronger than Mega Man (well based on last year HM) and Sonic. So relying on the seeds isn't very smart.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

I can see how Ken not getting in doesnt make a difference, but I dont see how Ryu is now randomnly stronger?
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

And according to the standings SFII would have layed a nice 58.16% on Sonic 2. Judging by that shouldn't Sonic lose to Ryu? No. Why? They don't equal their games. Really, it really is stupid to try to bring the Spring Contest over and tell me a character is falling because such and such lost or someone's game didn't get in.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

but I dont see how Ryu is now randomnly stronger?

Really, I said it was possible for Ryu to beat Sonic. Do I think he will? Probably not. I'm just saying that he should put up a good showing.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Personally, I'll be rooting for the Street Fighter star. It'll be amazing if he could shock the contest world. On another note, isn't it nice that we're suddenly getting into all this talk of upsets and bracket busters, when a few weeks ago it seemed that the cookie cutter was almost unstoppable?
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

isn't it nice that we're suddenly getting into all this talk of upsets and bracket busters, when a few weeks ago it seemed that the cookie cutter was almost unstoppable?

Oh it definitely is, especially when people were complaining at first at how easy this bracket is to predict. Now, there seems to be stuff popping up everyday that could happen that was overlooked before. Gotta love all of this with my Mega Man over Link. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Calling brackets is all about predicting upsets. Look at the NCAA tounament. A majority of the people had St. Josephs going to the Final Four. A lot of people tried to call the upset and it paid off.

Note: I just wanted an excuse to bring up the NCAA tourney.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Really, I said it was possible for Ryu to beat Sonic. Do I think he will? Probably not. I'm just saying that he should put up a good showing.


Its also possible for CATS to beat Link, but we all know it will never happen. And whats so good about putting up a "good showing" Its either you win or lose simple as that. you get 2 points, you dont get 2 points.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

I'm hoping my upset special pulls through too. ;)
*cheers on Sephy*
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

Its also possible for CATS to beat Link,

That's a terrible comparison. CATS got 13% on Link while Ryu will get around 45% at the least on Sonic. Notice the difference in the ability to upset?

but we all know it will never happen.

Actually, we don't have a single clue on if it will or will not happen. All we can say is that Sonic shouldn't lose, but by no means is anything guaranteed in a match like that. It's like saying Cloud will beat Link everytime, no question.

And whats so good about putting up a "good showing" Its either you win or lose simple as that. you get 2 points, you dont get 2 points.

Except I don't have Ryu winning against Sonic so I'm wanting a great showing from him. In fact, I'd give up the points to see Ryu kick the crap out of the hedgehog.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

I didnt use it as a comparison, I used it as a known fact, that ANY character CAN beat ANY character. and im not saying Ryu vs Sonic will never happen, i was talking about Link vs CATS.

and i still dont understand why its so important that Ryu do well but still lose. Its like in the superbowl.

"Well team A won! lets rejoice!! woohoo!"
"wait, Team B had a good showing though! thats what really matters!"

No.
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

*cheers on Sephy*

*points to sig*
---
***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
This year is Sephiroth's year! Contest Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Knuckles

Why? Because I'd win both ways. I prefer Ryu, will vote Ryu, and hope Ryu does very well. On that same note I'm more than likely going to get 2 points for Sonic winning. That would make me happy both ways.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

I know this is beating a dead horse, but if Ryu was weaker because Ken wasn't in, Link, Cloud and Seph would all go down as well -.-
---
BtT: 4:07.16 | HRC: 50,053.8 ft OV aaaargh
Crash.

Does it really make you happy to see Ryu have a "good showing"?
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

I remember the legendary Street Fighter 2 battles I had with my brother and friends over a decade ago. Why wouldn't it make me happy if he has a good showing? Hell, I'm hoping he wins.
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

I always like to see my favorite characters do well even if they lose, especially when they do better than expected. I was thrilled to see how well Squall did on Samus last year when many thought he wouldn't break 40%. I guess it's about pride and respectability.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Yes. You know I'll go have a party in Ryu's honor at my house the day it happens.

Seriously, it'd be far better than seeing that crap hedgehog killing Ryu would it not?
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

And yeah, I hope he wins too. =p
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Well, this says it: Sonic is the undeniable king of the day vote.

Which makes some sense, but I'm starting to believe less and less in voting trends in some cases. Shadow was supposed to be able to build a solid lead on Tidus with the day vote, yet the match played out backwards.

And Locke sucks, in my opinion. For him to be a good Treasure Hunter, you need to sacrifice relics that would otherwise be useful. As for turning him into a God, you can turn any character in that game into a God. Teach everyone their spells, equip Bahamut or Fenrir when you level up, and presto. Insta-God.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

There are exceptions to the rule. A few things outside the norm (Tidus vs. Shadow, Link vs. Cloud) wouldn't necessarily completely dismiss voting trends. For the most part, there are characters who do better at different times than others.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

^
Yup.

Sonic Vs. Ryu
We'll have to wait and see.

I wanted Chun-Li in the contest. Maybe next year
---
The reason why you couldn't see my Signature before is because it was Invisible

As someone who has already won one of these things, I could care less if we see a few bracket busters go down. Yeah I'm hoping I do well, but I won't be upset in the least if, say, Mario happened to win the whole thing.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Knuckles is about to hit 57% in a little bit. This match will almost undoubtedly fall within the extrapolated margin of error ( for SFF-adjusted Kefka). Obviously, the rankings can't predict voting trends, but they're still doing a good job of telling the end result.

This still doesn't explain why Pac-Man performed at the level he should have had there been no SFF.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Screw Bahamut and Fenrir, Bismark and Zoneseek are where it's at.

God forbid you can actually *change* relics to transform Locke from great offensive power to great thief.

Besides, nothing spells God like dishing out 79992 damage in one turn.

AFAIK, only Terra, Locke, Edgar and Celes can do this. It'd be stupid to use Terra or Celes to do this because they'll spend more time on spell-casting, and Edgar has his tools. That leaves Locke, essentially. I don't steal much stuff anyway, so that's good.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

Gau!
---
The reason why you couldn't see my Signature before is because it was Invisible

Yep. Puzzle time. Why did Kefka perform like there was SFF, yet Pac-Man does as if there was none. Weird.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

I want to do some more number crunching, this time taking some variables into account. Does anybody know any acceptable numbers I could use for:

1) Pac Man overperforming against Kefka due to pics? I'm thinking maybe 2-3% or so.

2) Pac Man's popularity change? I was thinking that I would evaluate him based on his 2k2 levels. That is, use his 2k2 value against Link to compare him to Luigi.

3) Knux's fall in popularity. He fell 1.21% between 2k2 and 2k3, and I'm probably going to use that again, unless somebody can give me a better number.

If anybody wants to give me consensus numbers, I'll try to make the Luigi/Pac Man/Kefka/Crono/Knux circle of death sound more reasonable statistically.
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I will be upset, by the way, if Mario wins the contest. I just honestly don't like him.

/bitterness about Luigi being overshadowed.

Anyway, what exactly is the Margin of error for this match, with SFF Kefka? The reason i ask is that in the past two hours Kefka has only lost two thirds of a percentage point. I don't think Knucles will be able to stay this strong for very long, and i honestly expect Kefka to make up a percentage point or so with the night vote. Considering Kefka was supposed to get only 31 percent, and taking into account that he could potentially end above 42 percent, i think any margin of error that includes this would have to be insane...
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

I will be upset, by the way, if Mario wins the contest. I just honestly don't like him.

Impossible!
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

A random theory is there could be some SFF or variety of it in Pacman/Luigi, because most Pacman voters are old school voters. These voters could vote fellow fairly old school character Luigi, who looks better in the old school than in recency.

Who doesn't like Mario... who ever doesn't is clearly satan. Hold on let me go get my holy water...

On a serious note, the irregularity in today's poll shows that those rankings weren't entirely accurate (as we should all have known all along) Just a good place to start. I expected Knuckles with about 59% and it is a little less what is the big deal?
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

i dont like mario either, hes not a very appealing character.... as for luigi... now he is a CHARACTER!!!!!!
---
police toilet stolen, cops have nothing to go on
THE-KiRBY-ARMY<("<)<( " )> (>")> Member no.56

Right now Knuckles is doing 3.75% worse than the SFF adjusted rankings have him at and 12.6% worse than non-SFF adjusted rankings.

Also, Knuckles made it over 57%.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Luigi >>>>>>>>> Mario
---
Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

This really just goes to show that you can't put too much faith into the rankings. Think of them as a police radar. They are accurate... up to a point. I told you guys a long time ago, it helps to have the rankings, but it also helps to have a little common sense.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

Luigi >>>>>>>>> Mario

Switch all the inequality signs. It should read:

Luigi <<<<<<<<< Mario. =)
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

No, I think the arrow signs were pointing the right way the first time.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

If they were I wouldn't have had to correct them.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Wario > Both

Now everybody's happy. :)

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

I just don't see what is hateable about Mario. I can see how people could not like him but hating him is completly different. Whoever hates him must be racist against Itallian stereotypes. Between Mario and Luigi. I used to be a bigger fan of Luigi because in Mario Kart and Mario Tennis he seemed a whole lot better. I like Mario better though. My equation would be just one inequality.

Mario>Luigi.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Wario > BOTH

True but Waluigi > Wario.
---
SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Waluigi is the worst Mario character ever conceived. -_-;

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

I told you guys a long time ago, it helps to have the rankings, but it also helps to have a little common sense.

Then I thank you officially for pointing out the obvious.
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***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
This year is Sephiroth's year! Contest Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Knuckles

Waluigi is absolutely terrible.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

It is his astute terrosity that I love and enjoy.
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SC2K4 Score 14/14. Today's pick: Knuckles. Voted For: Knuckles.
Fujin is the greatest character ever conceived by man.

Luigi>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mario
v...................................^
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v...................................^
v...................................^
v...................................^
v...................................^
v...................................^
Mario<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Luigi

got it now?
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Score:14/14 Todays Pick: Knuckles
I'm not talking about innovation to the SERIES- I'm talking about innovation to the GENRE. - Sb27441X

Then I thank you officially for pointing out the obvious.

It was the least I can do. For I am Lucid Faia, Master Of The Obvious !!

http://www.imagedump.com/index.cgi?pick=get&tp=109545

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

kefkas pic is why he is doing bad
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Beer...the cause of and solution to all of life's problems.
My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.

>_<
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WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

More number crunching results. For this, the first column is as if nothing changed extra between 2k3 and 2k4. The second column assumes Pac Man overperformed on Kefka last year by 3%. The third column assumes Knuckles decreased another 1.21% (weighted). The last assumes both of these factors.

Overall, the model assumes Kefka underperformed against Crono due to SFF, Pac Man was relatively unchanged, and Luigi recieved a boost.

Thought process goes like this: Kefka's new value against Knux gives him a new value against Cloud. This is compared to his old value to get a percentage increase. This new value can also be used to guess the amount of SFF in Crono/Kefka last year. This increased Kefka value also increases Pac Man's value. Pac Man, then, should have been able to do better against Luigi. Since he did not, Luigi must have gone up. Luigi is now expected to beat Yoshi.

Match . . . . . . Normal . . . . PMOver . . . . Kn Low . . .Both
Kefka/Cloud. . . 21.78% . . . .21.78% . . . . 20.75% . . 0.75%
Kefka Inc . . . .+6.22% . . . . +6.22% . . . . +5.19% . . 5.19%
Kefka/Crono . . .29.50% . . . . 29.50% . . . .28.11% . . 28.11%
Kefka SFF . . . . 8.42% . . . . 8.42% . . . . . 7.03% . . 7.03%
PM/Kefka . . . . 49.07% . . . .46.07% . . . . 49.07% . .46.07%
PM/Cloud . . . . 21.38% . . . . 20.07% . . . . 20.36% . . 19.12%
PM Increase . .+6.11% . . . .+4.8% . . . . +5.09% . . +3.85%
PM 2k2 Ch . . . +1.73% . . . . +0.42% . . . . +0.71% . . -0.53%
PM/Luigi . . . . . 43.76% . . . . 41.08% . . . . 41.67% . . 39.13%
Luigi Over . . . . 11.49% . . . . 8.81% . . . . 9.40% . . 6.86%
Luigi/Cloud . . . .33.13% . . . . 31.01% . . . . 31.55% . . 9.63%
Luigi Inc . . . . . +8.7% . . . . +6.58 . . . . +7.12% . . +5.20%
Luigi/Yoshi . . . .60.50% . . . .57.80% . . . . 58.53% . . 55.84%
Luigi/Squall . . . .52.13% . . . . 48.88% . . . . 49.73% . . 46.71%

I apologize for the column's messiness, and if anybody knows how to get this damned site to format better I'm all ears.

The last column manages to put up believable numbers. The first one, which assumes nothing extra, is clearly wrong. It has Luigi catapulting up to Magus' level, and shows that he would beat Squall. Pac Man overperforming tones things down a bit, and could also be interpreted as Pac Man losing some popularity between this year and last for the same results. Knux sliding again, while not as drastic an improvement as Pac Man, looks passable as well.

However, when you combine both factors, you get a more mild 7.03% SFF in Crono/Kefka, a Pac Man that's right around 2k2 levels, and an increase that keeps Luigi below Bowser, and still has him losing to Squall.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I'll still stand by my belief that TLF *The Lettuce Factor* is why Kefka's losing. Give him a decent pic, even that joker one from the FFVI FMVs, and it'd be dead even.

I don't know though, why would there be sff in Kefka/Crono, just because of square? aren't there other matches where this didn't happen? Like isn't Auron/Cloud suppposedly not sff'd, and they're even more linked than Kefka/Crono who are not even in the same series.
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Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

I don't know though, why would there be sff in Kefka/Crono, just because of square? aren't there other matches where this didn't happen? Like isn't Auron/Cloud suppposedly not sff'd, and they're even more linked than Kefka/Crono who are not even in the same series.

Kefka and Crono are both from the same era, though. Auron and Cloud didn't even have games on the same system (Kingdom Hearts notwithstanding).
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***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
This year is Sephiroth's year! Contest Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Knuckles

You really think that over 5000 people decided to vote for Knuckles instead of Kefka just because of a picture? He might do slightly better, but he still would not win.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Auron and Cloud are different games, different "eras."

Kefka and Crono are different games, same "era."
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

I think a better picture for Kefka would make it closer, but definitely not enough to pull it down to 50-50 and a possible Kefka win.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

yeah, I guess that could help, but they're still in different games, and ff6 seems to have had enough power in the spring, so enough people should have known who kefka was, I guess knowing him doesn't mean you'll vote for him obviously though. If I wasn't so lazy, I would check for other same era games that didn't get sff'd, I guess perhaps, a direct matchup between final fantasy six and chrono trigger would have done that.
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Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

What about Sora vs. Aeris from last year? Would there have been some SFF in that match? I know KH isn't Aeris's "main" game, but they she was in it and KH seemed to boost all of the characters that made an appearance in it.

Also, if there was a significant amount of SFF in that match, do you guys think it would be enough for Sora to take out Jill/Ryu H?

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Notre: I'm hungry, let's go out for ice cream.
KOS-MOS: I have a better idea. Let's stay here and you can have some of my...'home-made' cookies and cream.

That wouldn't have SFF. Or, I doubt it would, at least not noticably.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

I believe there was little to no SFF in Aeris vs. Sora, and if there was some I couldn't imagine it propelling him over Jill/Hayabusa.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

If Sora suffered from SFF at near-DK levels, then yes he could make the Sweet 16.

You can understand how reluctant I am to bank on it.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

I see. After seeing Kefka's performance after the poll opened, I was starting to worry that Sora could actually make the Sweet 16 if he was affected by SFF as much as Kefka apparently was, but you guys have put my fears to rest...for now. Thanks for your opinions, I appreciate it. ...Um, I'll show myself out...

*leaves topic*

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Notre: I'm hungry, let's go out for ice cream.
KOS-MOS: I have a better idea. Let's stay here and you can have some of my...'home-made' cookies and cream.

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/15/2004 5:10:04 PM | Message Detail
More number crunching results.
...

Wow RPGuy, that post was music to my ears :) Good stuff.

I would love it if the idea of Kefka suffering from SFF against Crono, Pac-Man not changing, and Luigi increasing in popularity (due to M+L or whatever) were true. I'm certainly rooting for it!

Though another thought is that perhaps Pac-Man overperformed against Kefka due to Kefka's pic, while Kefka was much stronger when he faced Crono but suffered SFF. Thus, the trickle-down SFF was negated by Pac-Man's overperformance against Kefka. But this is just complete speculation and means little. And it doesn't explain why Kefka would perform good against Knuckles despite having the same pic that supposedly hurt him against Pac-Man.

Anyway, all this speculation is fun, but nothing is going to be agreed upon. Looks like Luigi is now the favorite though, which is good.

It would be excellent if Luigi could go from a flop in one contest, to the Cinderella of another.
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Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Looks like Luigi is now the favorite though

Man, I'm tired of being right.

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

But if Pac-Man over-performed against Kefka because of Kefka's bad pick, wouldn't you then have to take into account that since the same pic is being used, now Knuckles is overperforming by the same amount that Pac-Man would be and thus, cancelling it out?
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

bad pic*
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

wouldn't you then have to take into account that since the same pic is being used, now Knuckles is overperforming by the same amount that Pac-Man would be and thus, cancelling it out?

I already mentioned this:
And it doesn't explain why Kefka would perform good against Knuckles despite having the same pic that supposedly hurt him against Pac-Man.

One possible explanation is that due to the notoriety of Lettuce Kefka, it no longer hurts him--but that probably overstates the importance of the board.
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Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Though another thought is that perhaps Pac-Man overperformed against Kefka due to Kefka's pic, while Kefka was much stronger when he faced Crono but suffered SFF. Thus, the trickle-down SFF was negated by Pac-Man's overperformance against Kefka. But this is just complete speculation and means little. And it doesn't explain why Kefka would perform good against Knuckles despite having the same pic that supposedly hurt him against Pac-Man.

Actually, the 2nd and last columns of my chart assume Pac Man overperformed by 3% against Kefka, for pic reasons or otherwise, and Luigi still comes out ahead of Yoshi. Behind Squall and Bowser, too, which makes it more believable.

I would love for Luigi to be this contest's Cinderella and put up 30% on Link, as my last column suggests.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I managed to selectively miss that sentence.

I think it's best not to think about it.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Kefka's pic can easily be explained from the character line-up

Last year CJayC used Kefka's second round picture as his bio, but this year he used his first round pic. So people who made there brackets/voted thought Kefka looked like that
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Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

Eh, To tell the truth, I don't think too many of the voters even saw the character bios this year.

They're not exactly readily available, and they were only linked in the news for like a week or so.

Hell, a lot of people who use this board didn't even see the bios.
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

And it doesn't explain why Kefka would perform good against Knuckles despite having the same pic

Percentage wise?

Again, we lost how many voters? Assuming they were casual voters, they would be the ones most heavily influenced by Pics, as they would be least likely to know who Kefka was...
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2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

And I agree, all this speculation is fun, but the next match involving this crazy circle (Kefka/Knux/Crono/Luigi/Pac Man) is the match that we're trying to predict (Yoshi/Luigi). So no more hard numbers to work with until that match rolls around.

And here's what has to happen for the XS to work:

Luigi has to increase relative to Pac Man
Kefka has to increase relative to Knuckles (a ton if you don't believe there was Crono/Kefka SFF)


And that's all, really. So take your pick who think increased/decreased; I think the most plausible explanation is that Luigi went up, Pac Man stayed the same, Kefka stayed the same but suffered from SFF, and Knux decreased.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Why would Knux decrease after a new game and Shadow stayed the same
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Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

Sonic characters have fallen after getting a new game before, though Shadow's the only thing that makes it odd.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Why would Knux decrease after a new game and Shadow stayed the same

Maybe because Shadow has essentially taken over the "badass of the series" role that used to belong to Knux? I don't know; and I'm only assuming that he fell by the same amount he fell by between 2k2 and 2k3 (1.21%), which isn't all that much.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Sonic characters have fallen after getting a new game before, though Shadow's the only thing that makes it odd.

Hmm...possibility here...could Tidus have maybe also have slipped a bit in popularity? FFX and FFX-2 were fresher last year, and while i can't see an extra year contributing to a massive drop in popularty, it could easily have caused a slight fall which would perhaps make this current result make a bit more sense.
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2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Maybe Luigi's over performance is due to M&L, PLUS some SFF in Link Vs. Samus that trickled down to him. Of course, that just makes Crash's situation even weirder.
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"Woah!"--Crash Bandicoot

*tag*

Luigi > Kefka. We got that down right? Luigi did better against Pac-Man did Kefka did..cool. >_>'

Alright..I got something else that might also effect Luigi..here goes nothing.

This shows Yoshi getting 76.40% on Ryo Hazuki in SC2K4.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1720

Dante also faced Ryo, and he got 77.65% on Ryu in SC2K3.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1332

So Dante > Yoshi...now, what does that have to do with Luigi? I'll show you.

This is Luigi getting 74.54% on Ratchet in SC2K3.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1310

Now, Dante faces Ratchet later in the first round. If Dante gets 74.54% or lower, then that also helps Luigi, because that means Luigi is equal to or stronger than Dante, while Yoshi is weaker than Dante.

Does that sound logical?

Well, there are my two cents, and I'm not sure of the possiblity of Dante getting lower than 74% on Ratchet.

-Tai

not more characters to the Yoshi vs. Luigi group

so who do we have now

Yoshi, Luigi, Pac-Man, Kefka, Knuckles, Crono and now Dante and Ratchet
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Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

But wait if Luigi did gain from M&L he would've beat Ratchet by more so I guess that doesn't work
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Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

But wait if Luigi did gain from M&L he would've beat Ratchet by more so I guess that doesn't work

Luigi did beat Ratchet, I gave you a link to the poll! O_o What are you talking about??

And what does M&L mean? Mario & Luigi Superstar Saga or something?

If Luigi did gain from 2003 - 2004 that would mean he should beat Ratchet by more
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Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

More help to Luigi. Yay! :-)

-Tai

You mean if he faced Ratchet this year? Then yeah. But he beat Pac-Man this year, not Ratchet.
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Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Char, Luigi beat Ratchet in 2k3.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

How do I use the extrapolated rankings to see how much Character A would score on Character B?
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Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

100 - Y/X * 50.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

sigh

In 2003 Luigi beat Ratchet 75%-25%

A Theroy shows that Luigi gain from 2003-2004 from M&L

If Luigi did gain then in 2004 he should beat Ratchet by more

understand
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Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

For the record, I'll post all three forms of the XS formula:

A = Standard (Link or Cloud)
B = Stronger character
C = Weaker character

C vs B = 50 * (C vs A) / (B vs A)
B vs A = 50 * (C vs A) / (C vs B)
C vs A = (C vs B) * (B vs A) / 50

B vs C = 100 - C vs B, etc.

You'd probably only ever need the other two if you overcomplicate things immensely. Like I did with the Luigi/Yoshi circle of death.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I'm assuming Y and X are Expected Percentages against Cloud right?
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Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Charmander > me.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

FFX and FFX-2 were fresher last year, and while i can't see an extra year contributing to a massive drop in popularty, it could easily have caused a slight fall which would perhaps make this current result make a bit more sense.

Final Fantasy X-2 was released after the summer contest last year, for what it's worth.

The thing that makes a fall by Tidus and Shadow both so hard to believe is that it means they fell almost exactly the same amount.

Kefka could be benefitting from bracket votes. A lot of people seem to think he'll be the bracket favorite for this match.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Kefka could be benefitting from bracket votes. A lot of people seem to think he'll be the bracket favorite for this match.

So, only under 50% of the brackets have Knuckles, Uber, more perfects fall and I take one more step to being on the Top 50.

Yeah, it wouldn't bother me in the least if Kefka was the bracket favorite. Better chance for me to break the top 50.

People are vastly overrating this picture factor. Come on, if it existed, Shadow was supposed to be the king of it after grabbing 45% on waterpack Mario. If an awesome picture wasn't enough to put him over the top of his equal, who was a one-armed man in his picture, I doubt it amounts to much of anything.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I wouldn't be surprised if Kefka is a bracket favorite. In fact, if he's not I expect under 55% for Knuckles. Considering how Kefka is not only a higher seed but at the same time a Final Fantasy character just seems like it would be far to much for those people up front to resist. I know a lot of bracketmakers on the board seem to be complaining about losing their bracket because of Kefka, oddly enough.

Anyway, I'd be happy with it. It'd get me on the leaderboard.
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Ok, I've got it now.

Ryo with 26.6 overperformed by .283 percent. According to my calculations.

Pac-Man with 32.27 overperformed by 1.02 percent.

Leaving both Ryo's and Pac-Man's X ranking the same, that makes Yoshi's X vs. Link at 28.68 and Luigi's X vs. Link (assuming no SFF) at 24.22.

Thus Yoshi would be expected to get about 59 percent on Luigi. However, this is my first time doing anything with Extrapolateds and my logic may be flawed and I am also leaving out the inevitable SFF.


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Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Also, both Kefka and Knuckles had similar results last summer: a first round win, followed by a second round destruction at the hands of a powerhouse. Most casual bracket makers won't think "OMG! He almost lost to Pac-Man!! FODDER!!" They'll simply assume he can go toe to toe with Knuckles because he won his first round match and lost to one of the Noble Nine, just like the echidna.
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My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

For the record, I'll post all three forms of the XS formula:

A = Standard (Link or Cloud)
B = Stronger character
C = Weaker character

C vs B = 50 * (C vs A) / (B vs A)
B vs A = 50 * (C vs A) / (C vs B)
C vs A = (C vs B) * (B vs A) / 50

B vs C = 100 - C vs B, etc.

Whoa there. I haven't done a whole lot of work with the extrapolated rankings, but I'm a pretty good guy with math and I've done a lot of my own thinking. First and foremost, shouldn't a formula for predicting C vs B (based on C vs A and B vs A) be symmetric, i.e. not depend on the stronger of B and C? I've always thought it should be

C vs B = (C vs A) / ((C vs A) + (B vs A))

In other words, the ratio of the amount they got on A would be the ratio of their amounts against each other. For example, if C vs A = 10% and B vs A = 20%, then my formula gives C vs B = 33%, but your formula gives 25%.
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Contest status: 13/14 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak

I am going to attempt to change topics since Luigi vs Yoshi has been beaten to death, and will be beaten more in the coming weeks. Despite what anyone says, this could come in second behind Frog vs Liquid as the closest match in the contest. I see no clear winner right now.

Now, to a match which is only a few days away. Vyse vs Laharl. Does Laharl have any chance of breaking 45%, much less competing in this match?

If FAQ lists mean anything, it's the only way Laharl has a chance.

And they don't... I'll point you to the Ragnarok Online poll during the inter-season.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

That match really shouldn't be close at all. As evident by looking at past polls, two weak characters rarely have a nailbiter all the way through. Unless Laharl is quite a bit stronger than Vyse, which I doubt, then Vyse shouldn't have a problem wrapping that one up. I've been confident in Vyse from the first time I saw the bracket...

...that could be because I had no idea who Laharl was until the bracket was released. >>
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SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

People who don't know who don't either is and will pic vote Vyse most likely. Vyse and Skies of Arcadia have been in previous contests, so he should be more well known than than Laharl.
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http://www.anirpg.com/kefka.gif
In memory of Kefka, greatest villain ever

bump
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Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

bump again
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Summer Contest Match 15 Kefka vs. Knuckles the Echidna
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Solid Snake vs. Tanner

You don't need to bump the topic. People will post as they have things to say. It'll fill up too fast if people bump.
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WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Vyse has bombed horribly. I'll at least say Laharl won't be recognized as "that dude that lost twice before"...
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RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
Mega Man, Tidus, Tommy Vercetti, Zero, Frog, Master Chief, Knuckles, Snake

Yeah, it's worth bumping if no one posted in 24 hours. Not 24 minutes!
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

Vyse put up respectable numbers against DK despite losing. Besides, he's only been in one contest. If you've never heard of him before, you're not likely to know that Skies of Arcadia got owned by Wind Waker.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Aprosenf, it's been way to long since I've been in a stats course to find theoretical problems with your formula, so I'll just do it the easy way. Using numbers.

C = Link
B = Cloud
A = Cloud

C vs B = Link vs Cloud = X
C vs A = Link vs Cloud = 48.39
B vs A = Cloud vs Cloud = 50

My way:
C vs B = 50 * (C vs A) / (B vs A)
X = 50 * 48.39 / 50
X = 48.39

Which is correct, because C vs B is also Link vs Cloud

Your way:
C vs B = (C vs A) / ((C vs A) + (B vs A))
X = 48.39 / (48.39 + 50)
X = .4918

Not correct, it states that Link vs Cloud would be 49.18.
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Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Ahem, that was poorly worded. I should say that you're not likely to know that Vyse was in Skies of Arcadia, which got owned by Wind Waker.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Match #14 Review:

Eh...slight boost for MC. Nothin' else too exciting about this match, though.

Match #16 Preview:

This match has the potential to be the biggest blowout of the contest. Tanner is just ridiculously weak. And I don't mean Pac-Man weak. We're talking, like, Mr. Driller weak here.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Vyse will win. It's a sure thing. Which is why I hate that match. Laharl deserves to win much more than Vyse.

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SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

If Vyse is a sure thing, then I think I can keep a perfect bracket until at least Ness vs. Jak, or 20 matches =).
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WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

"At this rate, it'll still fall within the margin of error for SFF-adjusted Kefka from last year"

Sure, if last year anybody had thought Kefka was hit as hard as DK. Which, of course, no one did.

"it's not like SMS' release helped Mario tremendously against Cloud"

Are you sure?

"Knuckles is about to hit 57% in a little bit. This match will almost undoubtedly fall within the extrapolated margin of error ( for SFF-adjusted Kefka)."

Again, that's if you assume Kefka was hit as hard as DK. Yet no one assumes that. The previous SFF adjustment for Kefka was based on Pac-man's drop from 2k2 to 2k3 which was much, much less than what Kefka is up to right now.

Oh, and of course, as expected Knux is droppign the ball in the night. He could drop back below 57 which is already outside of the standard margin of error for the SFF adjusted stats.

"Like isn't Auron/Cloud suppposedly not sff'd"

*Laughs a damn good Kefka laugh*

Yeah, supposedly. I've been saying all along that I thought there was. Just imagine if Auron starts doing things he's not supposed to do... just imagine if he ends up looking as strong as Tidus after all (until he matches up with Seph, of course)

"You can understand how reluctant I am to bank on it."

Yeah, but look at Kefka. there was reasonable evidence to show he wasn't hit as hard as DK, yet there he goes. Sure, it's still not the same as DK... only what, 40%? But no one expected it to be near what it is, and Kefka isn't done yet.

"PLUS some SFF in Link Vs. Samus that trickled down to him."

That's absolutely rediculous! In conclusion, I must have posted that WEEKS ago!
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

starting tomorrow, i should be able to update these daily. >_>

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 75.66% - Link over CATS
2) 67.08% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 65.98% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
4) 65.96% - Megaman over Eartworm Jim
5) 62.08% - Magus over Luca Blight

Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 62319 - Link over CATS
2) 55813 - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
3) 52337 - Mario over J.C. Denton
4) 49079 - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 44770 - Crono over Conker

Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.10% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1.62% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 14.32% - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 23.92% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne
5) 35.46% - Luigi over Pac-Man

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 93 - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1546 - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 12533 - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 18618 - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne
5) 26709 - Luigi over Pac-Man

Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 95122 - Tidus vs. Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 87733 - Frog vs. Liquid Snake
3) 87557 - Ganondorf vs. Alucard
4) 84625 - Megaman vs. Earthworm Jim
5) 82369 - Link vs. CATS

Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 70495 - Magus vs. Luca Blight
2) 74383 - Bowser vs. Guybrush Threepwood
3) 75307 - Luigi vs. Pac-Man
4) 77021 - Master Cheif vs. Crash Bandicoot
5) 77860 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Max Payne

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes

1) 72344 - Link
2) 70219 - Megaman
3) 65184 - Mario
4) 62375 - Crono
5) 61731 - Bowser

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 10025 - CATS
2) 12652 - Guybrush Threepwood
3) 12847 - J.C. Denton
4) 13367 - Luca Blight
5) 14406 - Earthworm Jim

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 46788 - Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 43820 - Liquid Snake
3) 37512 - Alucard
4) 29621 - Max Payne
5) 24299 - Pac-Man

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 43913 - Frog
2) 48239 - Tommy Vercetti
3) 48334 - Tidus
4) 50045 - Ganondorf
5) 51008 - Luigi

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 98.79% - Link over CATS
2) 98.28% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 97.47% - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
4) 95.00% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 93.43% - Crono over Conker

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 44.33% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 63.02% - Ganondorf over Alucard
3) 68.69% - Luigi over Pac-Man
4) 70.06% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
5) 76.02% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

btw - i still can't believe that Frog vs. Liquid Snake was the third closest match of all time. yeesh.

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

"btw - i still can't believe that Frog vs. Liquid Snake was the third closest match of all time. yeesh."

Perhaps this speaks volumes about each character's strength.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Kefka looks to take #3 on the most impressive losers.

---
SC2k4: Rank: T2, Score: 13/14, Picked: Knuckles, Voted: Kefka
VOTE LAHARL!

Perhaps this speaks volumes about each character's strength.

what volumes, Chichiri? volumes of suckitude?

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

I think that the fact that it was a popular poll (well for this contest) and that most fodder vs. fodder matches aren't close (or at least that is the impression I've gotten from everyone else), it would mean that they are strong >_>.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

"what volumes, Chichiri? volumes of suckitude?"

Yeha, they both suck as badly as Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus, Chrono Trigger, Final Fantasy 6, Tidus, Shadow. Man, I need to wash my mouth out after talking so long about so many crappy contestants.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"and that most fodder vs. fodder matches aren't close"

Not only are they not close (the closest being Kefka vs. Pac-Man which is now highly suspect) but they tend not to be the second most popular match either. And let's be honest, unless there's another really close one like that there won't be another match that popular for a couple of weeks.

Would Ryo vs. Lara Croft get more votes than Link vs Cats if held in the same year? I doubt it.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I couldn't imagine Knuckles being much weaker than Luigi. I think the best explanation for all this is that Kefka suffered SFF against Crono, while Pac-Man took a massive drop from 2003-2004. That's obviously the simplest way to see it, and other characters you wouldn't expect to drop have dropped, such as Bomberman.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, the best I can get Kefka up to stat wise is around Ramza and Sora, so he's still fodder, just not as bad as before. Well, sticking him a little lower, between Ken and Tails, makes more sense, but whatever.

Regardless, his match with Pac Man wasn't a .1% difference, nor did it have high vote totals, so Liquid and Frog still look like strong characters.
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

"and other characters you wouldn't expect to drop have dropped, such as Bomberman."

When I saw this I actually let out half a laugh.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Match XIV: (3) Master Chief vs. (14) Crash Review

Master Chief beat Crash, 70.72% - 29.28%

First things first what the hell happen to Master Chief’s anti-voters? Is he like Mario or something? You never know what he will get against his opponents unless they’re from Square. This match also opened a few eyes to those who were confident putting Frog over Master Chief, giving them something to think about, though they may have panic for no reason whatsoever.

Last year Master Chief was expected to get somewhere in the 66% so I guess this isn’t as much as an upset then what people of thought since the rest could be from Crash overperforming last year and a slight margin of error. So this match being such a blowout was expected, but it also could’ve been closer.

There’s also the question if Master Chief have gone up in popularity. Well if he did it probably wouldn’t have been much and hype for Halo 2 isn’t probably a factor since the hype is coming from Halo fans anyways. So for anyone thought that Frog had a free pass to the Sweet 16 will have to think twice on the size of blowout in his next match.

---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

Match XVI: (2) Solid Snake vs. (15) Tanner Preview

Past Performances:

Solid Snake: 2002

Defeated Squall, 65.43% - 34.57%
Defeated Knuckles, 60.71% - 39.29%
Defeated Aeris, 56.54% - 43.46%
Lost to Crono, 47.07% - 52.93%
Ranked: 9th

Solid Snake: 2003

Defeated Raiden, 82.88% - 17.12%
Defeated Knuckles, 63.13% - 36.87%
Defeated Ryu Hoshi, 57.26% - 42.74%
Lost to Mega Man, 46.50% - 53.50%
Ranked: 8th

Tanner: 2002

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Tanner: 2003

Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis:

Solid Snake is from the Metal Gear Series. Solid Snake has been one of those good character where he gets seeded around where he suppose to be seeded and gets to the round he’s suppose to get to. Solid Snake is a strong character and is worthy of his seed, he would only lose to the Super 7, which is very good. Though Solid Snake hasn’t blown anyone out of the water except for Raiden, but we all thought it would be a bigger blowout and he got damage from SFF. Despite Solid Snake being a very strong character I don’t see him getting over 90% against an opponent anytime soon and as the contest progress so does the difficultly of the characters. So if he is going to get over 90% it has to be now.

Tanner is from Driv3r. Tanner is another new character in this contest. He is also probably one of the weakest characters in this whole tournament. Many people are saying he only made it to the contest because of the new Driv3r game that came out and the hype has finished now. We all know that Tanner is going to lose his first round match, but the question is by how much. People are saying that Tanner may get under 10%, but I think that Tanner would get over 10% because at least some people have heard his game unlike some other characters in the tournament.

Sigh a match between a Noble Nine member and probably the weakest character in the tournament doesn’t make this match sound that interesting. The only thing that might make this match interesting is if Solid Snake was to break 90% against Tanner, but I don’t think he would.

The new game called Driv3r that came out during the nomination period was probably the only reason Tanner actually got into this contest, though the hype for his new game was over before the brackets were locked. Things don’t too good for Tanner and he may be up for the Ms. Pac-Man award for this contest, if he was against someone else.

What I mean about that is I don’t see Solid Snake scoring 90% blowouts in any match he’s in. If Tanner was to get 10% or less against Solid Snake Tanner would be ranked under Mr. Resetti and Serious Sam would have a very close match with him. Though if Solid Snake was ever to get 90%+ then this would be the match to do that.

Looks like Solid Snake is going to start on a very good one and he will start his journey to the Elite 8 where he will surly meet Mega Man for a rematch. Can he win this time?

Charmander’s Bracket: Solid Snake

Charmander’s Prediction: 87.34% - 12.66%

---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

When people get warned/suspended/purgatoried/banned, their IP address as a whole should be given the punishment, but just one account.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

As it stands Kefka is already doing better than Ramza did last year.

Given that the night vote is all that remains I'd have to say he can only look better. As I said much earlier in the day, Kefka will end up equal to or better than Ramza.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I couldn't imagine Knuckles being much weaker than Luigi. I think the best explanation for all this is that Kefka suffered SFF against Crono, while Pac-Man took a massive drop from 2003-2004. That's obviously the simplest way to see it, and other characters you wouldn't expect to drop have dropped, such as Bomberman.

I'm sorry, I just can't see Pac Man dropping that much. I mean, he's Pac Man. He may not get much respect around here, but he shouldn't be falling. The (very probable) fact that there was Kefka/Crono SFF proves that he didn't fall much at all between 2k2 and 2k3, if he fell at all. Why should he start declining this year?

Like I said earlier, two things need to happen to make this match make sense. Luigi has to increase relative to Pac Man and Kefka has to increase relative to Knuckles. I could perhaps see Luigi and Pac Man splitting the difference, but even that is enough to propel Luigi over Yoshi.
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Aprosenf:
In other words, the ratio of the amount they got on A would be the ratio of their amounts against each other. For example, if C vs A = 10% and B vs A = 20%, then my formula gives C vs B = 33%, but your formula gives 25%.

I actually did it originally the same way as you did--and for the same reason: to be symmetric. I thought everybody else was doing it wrong. However I later realized that I was wrong--theoretically, from a statistics viewpoint, the other way is better. I explain it here:

http://sc2k4.com/extrapolated.php

It's because if you treat vote as uniformly distributed random variables, than the math involved with such a distribution is the one used to calculate the extrapolated probabilities. You can check this easily in Excel by generating random uniform numbers.

Also, this way results in a better correlation between 2K2 and 2K3 character strength values. So it appears to be slightly more effective, as well as being theoretically correct.

Not that there's much difference--the difference is only significant in expectations with regards to blowouts.


Chichiri:
Again, that's if you assume Kefka was hit as hard as DK. Yet no one assumes that. The previous SFF adjustment for Kefka was based on Pac-man's drop from 2k2 to 2k3 which was much, much less than what Kefka is up to right now.

Actually, the level of SFF assumed for Knuckles to get 60% would be far less than DK level. DK went up 87+% (relative), Pac-Man went down 22.3% (which is a change of the same magnitude as going up about 28.6%). So set Pac-Man '03 equal to Pac-Man '02 and Knuckles gets 61% on Kefka. The final result looks like it will be about 4% off, which is actually right about the 10% relative margin of error. So *if* you think that Kefka suffered from SFF against Crono, then the extrapolateds aren't that far off.

Though considering the results of Luigi vs. Pac-Man, I would question their utility in predicting Yoshi vs. Luigi accurately. This whole Kefka/Pac-Man/Knuckles/Luigi thing just has too many complicating factors, and you'd need to have so many damn assumptions to arrive at a possible conclusion that such a conclusion would carry very little weight.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

"At this rate, it'll still fall within the margin of error for SFF-adjusted Kefka from last year"

Sure, if last year anybody had thought Kefka was hit as hard as DK. Which, of course, no one did.

I am confused by this since in the last topic, you said:

Umm... no? If he had that severe of SFF then he'd beat Knux without issue and give Bowser/Ryu/Zelda a run for their money.

SFF-adjusted stats had Knuckles beating Kefka with around 60%. It'll be a disparity close to Ganondorf's performance against Alucard.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Though considering the results of Luigi vs. Pac-Man, I would question their utility in predicting Yoshi vs. Luigi accurately. This whole Kefka/Pac-Man/Knuckles/Luigi thing just has too many complicating factors, and you'd need to have so many damn assumptions to arrive at a possible conclusion that such a conclusion would carry very little weight.

After spending half an hour number crunching to try and arrive at such a conclusion, I completely agree. I maintain, however, that Luigi is the new favorite, though it's still a possible SFF match that could go either way.
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

I'm waiting for Master Chief/Frog before I decide the strength of the two of them.

And pacman going down? I suppose...but I think that makes as much sense, well, no, a little more sense than sff in Crono/Kefka
---
Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

"Actually, the level of SFF assumed for Knuckles to get 60% would be far less than DK level."

Yeah, I actually went on to say as much later.

"and you'd need to have so many damn assumptions to arrive at a possible conclusion that such a conclusion would carry very little weight."

And I've been saying this for a week and a half.

"I am confused by this since in the last topic, you said:"

I know you can read, you've already proved it, now why can't everybody stop being lazy and read the whole damn post if they find anything interesting in it? Hell, you went as far as to go to the last topic but didn't read everythign I wrote? I'll paste it for you so you can all read it again. And no, this is not jsut directed at you leonhart.

"Sure, it's still not the same as DK... only what, 40%? But no one expected it to be near what it is, and Kefka isn't done yet."

Yes, it says it quite clearly there, Kefka's SFF isn't even on the same level as DK, really. But at this point Kefka has improved as much as the character who had the second largest increase from 2k2 to 2k3 and Kefka isn't done. He may end up just barely becoming the second best improved character ever, assuming Luigi doesn't end up increasing by the absurd ammounts that he is projected to.

As stated at least six and one half dozen times already, I tend to exagerate from time to time to illustrate a point. Not that Kefka has improved as much as DK, but that he has improved more than anyone had any reason to expect.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

After spending half an hour number crunching to try and arrive at such a conclusion, I completely agree. I maintain, however, that Luigi is the new favorite, though it's still a possible SFF match that could go either way.

And I wholeheartedly agree with your analysis :) I agree that Luigi should now be the favorite--while the conclusion is sketchy and doesn't carry too much weight, from the information we have, it does appear to be pretty robust. It takes a good deal of finagling to get Yoshi above Luigi, given how Luigi vs. Pac-Man and Knuckles vs. Kefka have worked out. That's why you put Luigi as the favorite, and IMO that is the proper way to think about it.

So Luigi > Yoshi is not a conclusion you can have too much confidence in, it is robust with regards to the assumptions.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Ya know, long before this bracket was made public I believe Slowflake was kind enough to post a bracket where Luigi and Yoshi were 4 and 5 seeds and I said that I would no doubt take Luigi in that matchup. I listened to the boards, and for whatever reason in my bracket I have Yoshi beating Luigi. I hate you people. All of you.

I'm glad my GT bracket has Luigi.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

That's why I'm glad I convinced myself never to change my bracket once I finalized it, no matter what I heard on the board. Whenever I second guess myself, my first choice usually ends up being right.

Luigi over Yoshi is looking better all the time. Next to Master Chief over Frog (which I decided not to take), I thought this was the best 2nd round risk.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Heh, I almost succumbed to the Yoshi hype that nearly everybody was spewing forth, and I even changed my bracket at one point, but I just couldn't forsake my favorite Mario character. Time will tell whether I made a good decision or not.

When is Luigi/Yoshi, anyway?
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Without any contest delays, Yoshi vs. Luigi is slated for September 3rd.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Luigi was never over Yoshi in my bracket. I was convinced before the brackets came up by looking at the large enough gap between the two and reasoning that Yoshi was likely hit by more SFF than Luigi.

Still, it's not liek either side has a clear advantage.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Is it possible that bracket voting is that is screwing up the stats so much? There are less brackets involved in this contest than the previous two, and everyone involved thinks that they have a clear chance here. If that's the case, last year's numbers may not hold as much water; furthermore, I'm starting to think that a ton of brackets will have Kefka winning this match. Remember, we have yet to have a lower seed win a match in this contest.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

True, but Liquid Snake was favored to beat Frog on 55% of the brackets despite being a lower seed than Knuckles.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Yes, it's very likely that Kefka has the advantage in the brackets. Frankly, unlike Liquid Snake, Knux just isn't cool. I don't think Knux of all character has the ability to solidly turn the tables and be the higher picked character in the brackets while being the lower seed. If he does, I just can't see it being by much. It's not like extrapolated standings and other statistics are posted on the front page.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"True, but Liquid Snake was favored to beat Frog on 55% of the brackets despite being a lower seed than Knuckles."

And Liquid Snake is a lot cooler than Knux.

Add to that the fact that there is a damn good chance that peopel would still pick Snake over Crono (fools) and you can see why LS may have gotten that advantage.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I wouldn't think so. With bracket voters on his side, Tidus should have put up better numbers on Shadow. With bracket voters on his side, Liquid should have been able to defeat Frog. This is off by a bunch, after all, and so is Luigi/Pac Man. I don't think bracket voters can screw up a match this badly.
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Of course, Liquid's bracket advantage could have as much to do with his last name as Kefka's association with Final Fantasy.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Frankly, unlike Liquid Snake, Knux just isn't cool.

He was cool, until Sega started butchering his character. Curse you Sega, for you stupidity and lack of bring us any more Shining games that don't suck!
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

Also, like the potential for Link vs. Ganondorf in the Sweet Sixteen last year, perhaps bracketeers thought that Solid vs. Liquid was too good to resist, and therefore almost a sure thing.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"With bracket voters on his side, Tidus should have put up better numbers on Shadow."

Or, without bracket voters the match would have more closely reflected the extrapolated standings.

"With bracket voters on his side, Liquid should have been able to defeat Frog. "

Or, without bracket voters Frog would have had a cleaner win under his belt.

"I don't think bracket voters can screw up a match this badly."

I think they can do damage in the thousands of votes when they are fairly certain as a whole. 70%+ and I think th brackets really have a chance of swinging a match by 1000 votes fairly easily.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"He was cool"

No further comment.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I suppose. It's only an hour and forty minutes until we see prediction percentages; if they're in the 30's that theory might hold water, but if it's much higher than that I don't think so.
---
Current Pick: Knuckles; Current Vote: Kefka; Points: 14/14
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Hey, I never sai dthe bracket made a huge swing in this match, just that it potentially could when the brackets are very decisive.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Looks like Knuckles will stay above 57%
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

Yeha, rather disappointing, but still a good showing for Kefka. Not going to do the math myself at this time, but does this make him the second most improved character now?
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

does anybody notice that if you get your first round totally correct you have a very good chance of getting the second round correct, with only 1 or 2 hard picks
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

CJayC made a post saying there will be no stats until morning and SS is over 90% and almost at 94% though like I said Konami characters get a very good 1st Night Vote
---
Summer 2004 Contest 14/14 Knuckles vs. Kefka

It's more of the quality of Solid Snake's competition. We all knew Tanner would be pathetic and that it would probably be the biggest blowout of the contest.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I think we can already do that:

Match #16 review:
OUCH!
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle),
SC2k4 Oracle Challenge - Topic ID : 15604161

CJayC made a post saying there will be no stats until morning

Actually, he said "Stats tomorrow," which I'm guessing means about 24 hours from now, or at the start of Cloud's match. Just a guess, nothing more...
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

Solid Snake- 1008

Tanner- 72

Granted, I wasn't here for the first contest, but I have never seen something like that in one of these polls before.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Zelda/Adventure?
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

only 4 polls have had matches with 90%+ blowouts, it looks like this match could be the 5th and we now have a new member to our 90% club
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Well, I wasn't up for the very beginning of the Zelda-Adventure poll. The early numbers seem to really grab your attention more than the end result, for some reason.

Now the big question is: Will Tanner ultimately be as weak as Mr. Driller?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Yeesh, I second the OUCH for tanner, wow
---
Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

If Tanner ends below 7% he's weaker then Mr. Driller I think

Good night every1
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Now the big question is: Will Tanner ultimately be as weak as Mr. Driller?

Ms. Pac Man is weaker, isn't she?
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Tanner's losing percentage again, but he's still on pace to do better than Adventure. I just hope the morning vote goes a little better for the guy... but not too well.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

The 2002 rankings have Mr. Driller listed as #64.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

does anybody notice that if you get your first round totally correct you have a very good chance of getting the second round correct, with only 1 or 2 hard picks

You have gone into the future and seen that no upsets will occur?
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Actually, Driller was the weakest in 2002. He got blown out by Serious Sam, who got absolutely blasted by Mega Man. Not a good way to go...
---
My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass; I'm about taking names, and we're making games.

Mr. Driller has the worst ranking ever.
And he'd still be expected to get a little over 8% against Snake...
with the old layout...
OUCH!
---
SpC2k4 - Triple Crown Winner! (Spread Betting, Betting, Oracle),
SC2k4 Oracle Challenge - Topic ID : 15604161

Maybe in the old layout Tanner would be scoring higher too?

I doubt it, but meh...
---
I chose the road less traveled -- now where the heck am I?
A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words, But It Uses Up a Thousand Times the Memory

Tanner is doing so poorely that when I refreshed for about 30 seconds straight just now, he didn't get a single vote. This could turn out to be the biggest blowout any character contest or the the spring contest ever had.
---
Did you know A LONG LONG time ago in the days of the mayans people used to live for more than 500 years? Some, even, FOR ETERNITY-Jax1298

Tanner is still doing 2% better than Adventure.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Just wait until the kiddies wake up... to make him under 5%

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 75.66% - Link over CATS
2) 67.08% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 65.98% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
4) 65.96% - Megaman over Eartworm Jim
5) 62.08% - Magus over Luca Blight

Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 62319 - Link over CATS
2) 55813 - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
3) 52337 - Mario over J.C. Denton
4) 49079 - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 44770 - Crono over Conker

Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.10% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1.62% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 14.32% - Ganondorf over Alucard
4) 14.92% - Knuckles over Kefka
5) 23.92% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 93 - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 1546 - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
3) 12358 - Knuckles over Kefka
4) 12533 - Ganondorf over Alucard
5) 18618 - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 95122 - Tidus vs. Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 87733 - Frog vs. Liquid Snake
3) 87557 - Ganondorf vs. Alucard
4) 84625 - Megaman vs. Earthworm Jim
5) 82798 - Kefka vs. Knuckles

Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 70495 - Magus vs. Luca Blight
2) 74383 - Bowser vs. Guybrush Threepwood
3) 75307 - Luigi vs. Pac-Man
4) 77021 - Master Cheif vs. Crash Bandicoot
5) 77860 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Max Payne

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes

1) 72344 - Link
2) 70219 - Megaman
3) 65184 - Mario
4) 62375 - Crono
5) 61731 - Bowser

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 10025 - CATS
2) 12652 - Guybrush Threepwood
3) 12847 - J.C. Denton
4) 13367 - Luca Blight
5) 14406 - Earthworm Jim

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 46788 - Shadow the Hedgehog
2) 43820 - Liquid Snake
3) 37512 - Alucard
4) 35220 - Kefka
5) 29621 - Max Payne

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 43913 - Frog
2) 47578 - Knuckles
3) 48239 - Tommy Vercetti
4) 48334 - Tidus
5) 50045 - Ganondorf

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 98.79% - Link over CATS
2) 98.28% - Mario over J.C. Denton
3) 97.47% - Megaman over Earthworm Jim
4) 95.00% - Bowser over Guybrush Threepwood
5) 93.43% - Crono over Conker

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 44.33% - Frog over Liquid Snake
2) 63.02% - Ganondorf over Alucard
3) 68.69% - Luigi over Pac-Man
4) 70.06% - Tidus over Shadow the Hedgehog
5) 76.02% - Tommy Vercetti over Max Payne

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

Stats topics aren't stats topics without those lists. Good show.

On a side note, I don't see why everyone is so worried about DK vs Vivi after seeing Kefka's performance. For Vivi to be as strong as Knuckles, Vivi has to be almost as strong as Knuckles, not pull a Kefka and get 43% on him. I doubt Vivi could do much better than Kefka, personally. Maybe by a little, but not to DK levels. I coudl easily see DK taking that match by a 55-45 clip, 52-48 if peopel vote based off of Vivi being a Black Mage and/or 8 Bit Theater.

On Yoshi vs Luigi, I still say that Yoshi is the favorite. All Kefka really did was throw the stats into the maximum margain of error there is, which means very little for Luigi. Kefka could have horribly underperformed last year, with Pac Man horribly overperforming as well. To say that Luigi getting nearly 70% on Pac Man makes him the favorite against a guy like Yoshi is pretty out there. It's Pac Man, the character who is put on slot machines so that he can retain his appeal to old-school gamers. And when I'm talking old-school, I mean those idiots who burn away one social security check after the other in the local casinos. Pac Man and gamefaqs are not the right mix.

When did most people come to gamefaqs? The SNES era. When was Yoshi huge? The SNES era. I would be shocked if Luigi won that day.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Tanner....HAHAHHA

What idiot fanboys put this goof in here?
---
Steve Illumina: The Official Satirical Commentator of GameFAQ's Contests
Pub Trivian Forever...SC2K4: 13/14 (Yay Frog!)

I... I'm at a loss for words here. Bye bye, Mr. Driller. Hello, Mr. Opportunist. Why am I getting that vibe that even the Tanner nominators are voting Snake?

Tanner topping Adventure is surely a longshot, but... dear God... it's SOLID SNAKE for crissakes. Not a Zelda or FF7 entrant or anything.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 014/014 - Matches: 14/14 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Knuckles - Tomorrow: Snake

Why am I getting that vibe that even the Tanner nominators are voting Snake?

Because they are, maybe? It's Solid Snake, for God's sakes. The only character really deserving of any votes above him is Mega Man, maybe Magus on a good day. That's it.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Solid Snake did well enough. Tanner is really just that crappy.

Or perhaps there is SFF. Not company (Er, Tanner's from Driv3r, right?) They draw from the same "cool" audience, which prefers MGS/Snake.
---
Link, Alucard, Magus, Crono, Mario, Knuckles, Kefka, Cloud, Sonic...
And Frog.

Oh and about Yoshi vs Luigi... you guys have got to stop crunching numbers. Who is the fanbase gonna vote? Yoshi.
---
Link, Alucard, Magus, Crono, Mario, Knuckles, Kefka, Cloud, Sonic...
And Frog.

Loved my many...hated by few...respected by all...its...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Right you are, my fans and friends! The witty humor returns for another round of contest madness. Fanboys and diehards alike can come to appreciate the mocking of their beloved characters, their contest, their likes, their dislikes, and the gaming subculture we are all a part of, not to mention sweet Board 8, as the latest fad has come to know it to be called.

And so it begins, with the first matchup of the first round in the "Nibelheim" Division...

Cloud vs Duke Nukem
Steve's Pick: Cloud
Bracket Pick: Cloud
Newbie Pick: CLOUD
Fanboy's Choice: CLOUD! Duh.
My Oracle Pick: 87.1% for Cloud
My Prophet Pick: 47711 for Cloud
Upset Potential: Forever...no.

Comments: Its the poster child for Fanboyism vs a pathetic former first person icon turned laughingstock.

Well this is what the kiddies and fanboys were waiting for. The Nibelheim Kalm North Coral Division, where their hero..their icon...the one who speaks stupid and carries a big sword resides...ready to do battle with all who oppose him. By the power of Fanboys...gawd!

Duke is shuddering...aliens were a breeze to waste...developers delays even were manageable to the crown prince of cheese...but the onslaught of 40000+ FF fanboys? Even tough guy Duke Nukem cannot stop such an attack. He will wither and die like a flower...shrivel up like a prune...fold like an accordion...collapse like a house of cards...

So with Materia Blade in hand, Cloudy will charge forth, leading the fanboys, fangirls, and every Square Squadron member with a tattoo of Jenova on their breast into battle...and with him, the dreams of each and every fan...shall overcome this pathetic joke of a 16 seed.

Hail to the King indeed.

Results:Cloud wishes he could do what Snake is doing to overseeded Tanner. Duke has too many *cough* fans left to prevent 90%. High 80s will suffice.

Quotes: Cloud: "What about Duke's dreams? Its not my problem!" Duke: (in a rocking chair) "Hail to the King, baby!"
---
Steve Illumina: The Official Satirical Commentator of GameFAQ's Contests
Pub Trivian Forever...SC2K4: 15/16 (Go Vivi!)

WTF... who nominated Tanner??? You are going to tell me Mewtwo couldn't do this? You know what? L-block probably could get 6%.
---
...and it begins! Next tough match: VYSE vs. Laharl

Mewtwo and L-Block are both Nintendo characters.
---
Link, Alucard, Magus, Crono, Mario, Knuckles, Kefka, Cloud, Sonic...
And Frog.

Alright, nice to see Knux pulled through yesterday.

And Tanner..............please....leave forever.
---
Crono vs. Conker - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Tanner - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (14/15)

I bet Crash Bandicoot could even beat Tanner.....

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Obviously Crash could beat Tanner...
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

*tag*
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

SC2K4 FIRST DRAFT - PAGE 17 - (1) CLOUD STRIFE vs. (16) DUKE NUKEM

Disclaimer: This preview series may contain mildly offensive stuff, as well as SPOILERS, not only for the characters discussed, but other stuff as well.

Final Fantasy 7 is a landmark on this site. It's sometimes even said it's "the game the site was built around". Nevermind it was around before its release. Of course, it was nowhere near the mammoth monstrosity it is today.

But with the way FF7 is hailed on this site, is it really this surprising that he's our defending champion? Well, the shock lasted a while after his defeat of Link, for he was the same man who lost to Mario by 290 votes the previous year. But now it's different. For Kingdom Hearts has given Final Fantasy characters (all from 7 and on, curiously enough...) a new chance to shine. But let's talk a bit about Cloud. Seriously, he not only sports a mammoth-impaling haircut and a sword so big it could be used for strongmen contests, but an overwhelming amount of clichés here and there as well. I can't do Cloud any justice by myself, so I'll just steal this gem from Videogame Recaps:

I decide to name him "*****" on account of the fact that he's supposed to be all tough and badass, but if he got thrown in prison, you just know he'd be someone's prison ***** before you could say "Don't drop the soap."

BINGO. Now if you see mention of a prison ***** anywhere in these previews, you know who it's targeted at.

How is Cloud's championsip bid looking? Quite well, if you asked me. FF7's dominance this spring wasn't a one-time deal, and having 40% of the brackets to win it without any prior information (save the Summer Contests) pretty much tells the tale.

Duke Nukem is merely a road bump in a path to a showdown with Sephiroth that will be happening a wee bit too early. Yes, Duke Nukem is a legendary figure in gaming. Yes, he's three times the womanizer Link, Cloud or Crono will ever be. But this is GameFAQs, and just like Heroic Mario's analysis of CT's way to victory in the Spring Contest, everything falls apart against FF7. The dreams of gold, glory and power... gone. Duke probably feels like the pro wrestler who's been pushed for years on end on the day of the big championship match against Triple H.

Many people seem to be underestimating Duke. I'm seeing a lot of sky-high picks for Cloud in the Oracle Challenge, some even as high as in the 90s. But Cloud actually got a relatively tough draw for a 16-seed, and I say that if Cloud can get 85% in this match, this tournament is as good as OVA. Or at least, Link's championship bid, because Sephiroth can still have something to say.

NUMBERS OF INTEREST

SC2K3 extrapolated standings
1. Cloud Strife - 50.00%
45. Duke Nukem - 17.86%
Projection: Cloud with 82.14%

Board Odds Project picks (119 brackets)
Cloud Strife - 119
Duke Nukem - 0

Board Odds Project point value
2. Cloud Strife - 4737
52. Duke Nukem - 0

CONTEST TRIVIA

Cloud is the contestant who improved the most between 2002 and 2003.
According to the 2002 seedings, Duke should have faced Cloud... in the third round. How things change.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

"Why am I getting that vibe that even the Tanner nominators are voting Snake?"

What, you think he actually got nominations?

"I bet Crash Bandicoot could even beat Tanner....."

I bet Guybrush could beat Tanner...
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I bet... get this... Mr. Driller would beat Tanner.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

I don't know if anybody's responded to this yet, but:

When did most people come to gamefaqs? The SNES era. When was Yoshi huge? The SNES era. I would be shocked if Luigi won that day.


The hell? I don't think GameFAQS was even around back in the SNES era, let alone popular. It took FFVII to put GameFAQS on the map and that was after Yoshi's SNES heyday.
---
"Woah!"--Crash Bandicoot

GameFAQs was launched in 1996 IIRC. The year of the N64's launch.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

The hell? I don't think GameFAQS was even around back in the SNES era, let alone popular. It took FFVII to put GameFAQS on the map and that was after Yoshi's SNES heyday.

He meant when did most people that visit gamefaqs start playing games.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Poor Tanner..I didn't think he'd get more than 10%, but he might get less then 5%, now?! That's tragic.

-Tai

Actually, Slow, GameFAQs was created 1995 as the "Video Game FAQ Archive".

The www.gamefaqs.com domain name was created in September of 1996, right around the time that the N64 launched.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

http://web.archive.org/web/19961223185936/http://www.gamefaqs.com/

Ah, memories....
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

God bless Duke Nukem.
---
-----
-------

Yeah, I screwed up that one post. The majority of gamefaqers began their gaming careers during the SNES era, or at least the older batch of us visitors. We are the reason games like LTTP, Chrono Trigger, FF6, and the like will never die around this place.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I bet Ms. Pac-man could beat Tanner.
---
Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
summoner? wtf! summoner=Yuna Taru=midgit GaryPayton LA

I bet Ms. Pac Man would soundly beat Tanner. This is beyond sad.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Ms. Pac-Man would get 67% on Tanner. Ouch.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

So Tanner is basically fodder to the fodder? Hell, I can just imagine CATS and Gordon Freeman looking at him and saying 'Man, what a loser that guy is.'
---
Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
summoner? wtf! summoner=Yuna Taru=midgit GaryPayton LA

The majority of gamefaqers began their gaming careers during the SNES era, or at least the older batch of us visitors.

I think a good deal of the younger batch may have too. I'm only 14 and I started in the SNES era, though I had a Genesis. I still played Mario a lot at my cousin's house, which I went to often.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Like I've been saying for Ryu H. vs. Jill, the average voter/user hasn't played the NES
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Just because you start on SNES doesn't mean you never tried NES.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

I was under the impression that most started on the NES.

I mean... you don't have to be old for that. I started on Atari and I'm only 19.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

But you know, we were poor. So we didn't buy new systems until they went down in price by a hellvua lot.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Well technically I started on NES. I got it for christmas when I was 2. My parents didn't realize that video games aren't 2 year old friendly so returned it after a week. Then in like, '94 I had Genesis. Or maybe '95. Then '96 came, and so did SNES. Followed by a return of SNES and Genesis for full refund and a pre-order of N64. I remember getting N64 the first day and having a blast and a half on Mario. *sigh*
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Well, I started off with a Nintendo, and I was 4 when the Super Nintendo came out, I think. Once you start talking about users under the age of 16, the likelihood that they played a NES or had one decreases quite a bit because they weren't old enough to play games until after SNES's release.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

and that's the average age group at GameFAQs
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

I started gaming in the Atari days, though I was very young then.

However, I did not get into RPG's until the SNES.
---
These days, the geekier I get, the more employable I get. So calling me a geek is not an insult, but a statement of hope. Level 1: Petrifier (105 points)

I started with the genisis meself.
---
.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
Current State of SC2K4 Bracket: In a 6,754 way tie for 2nd. Meh.

Just because people haven't OWNED an NES, doesn't mean they haven't played NES games. If they have any knowledge of emulation, I'm sure plenty of them have tried NES games.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

For me I started gaming really late. I was 7 when I got my first console, Nintendo 64
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

Yes, I know that they still could have played a NES, but the likelihood that they had any significant game time with it decreases because newer and better systems had already been released.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I suppose that most casual 14 year old gamers aren't going to play NES games because they tend to be ignorant graphic whores.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Good grief. I never would've thought Solid Snake capable of this kind of blowout, against anybody. This Tanner guy realy sucks (understatement of the week right there).

The "I bet ____ could blow out Tanner" seems to be the latest fad in this topic. Let me put in my say: The Sand in Kefka's boots would get 60+% on Tannter. (I figure the Sand would get at least 1/5th of Kefka's support)
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Oh, and I'd also put the Nibelheim Innkeeper over Tanner in a heartbeat. I figure the Minor RPG Character Fanbase is enough to Pwn this loser's punk as..
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Snake being a record-holder for biggest blowout seems so horribly wrong. Especially given there are at least seven characters in this contest who could beat him without trouble.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Hey, maybe Snake did benefit from Twin Snakes or something :)

In which case it makes Frog's effort against Liquid look better too.

Though I would doubt this, myself.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Perhaps it may net him some votes against an unknown like Tanner. But against real competition like Megaman, I doubt it'll show. Heck, even against Knuckles, Frog or Master Chief I doubt it would make much difference.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

This match is hilarious..
---
Link, Alucard, Magus, Crono, Mario, Knuckles, Kefka, Cloud, Sonic...
And Frog.

Tanner is now is good shape....to get 4000 votes.

I'd like to attribute this solely to Tanner being weak, but I just can't see Snake winning a match against ANYONE like this.

While still very confident in my Megaman pick, there is a faint twinge of doubt for this division.
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

Even Adventure managed to get 4800 votes or so.

Tanner could be the lowest vote getter of all time... had this match taken place last year, Snake would have probably broken 100000 votes.

So, how much volume will the Snake > MM bandwagon take today? Let's see, we had Jim getting 17% on Megaman, now this, then Tidus looks ready to take off a large chunk of votes against Mega, then if Knuckles is in as bad a shape as yesterday's match suggests, Snake could get an even bigger score on him than before.

Reminds me of last year, when many of us got worried at Megaman's constant "underperforming", then when he faced Snake he beat him easily.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

I just can't see Snake winning a match against ANYONE like this.

Tanner just can't even draw votes from those who don't know Snake. I mean come on. Look at his pic, then look at Snake's pic.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

I fear for Duke tomorrow. I really do.

And I started on a NES. Those were the days.
---
Jon Thomson - today: Solid Snake, tomorrow: Cloud - 13/15
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005

This match doesn't shake my perception that Mega Man will beat Snake again, and by a larger margin than last time.

There's a difference between Earthworm Jim and Tanner: people actually like Jim.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I think Tanner got the worst first round draw that he could possibly manage. I'd imagine that he appeals to the same fanbase that Solid Snake does, and almost nobody in their right mind would prefer Tanner over him.

Interesting note: Solid Snake got 3000 votes in the first hour. Halfway through the match, Tanner is still 500 votes away from even getting that many.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

After doing a bit of math, I discovered this:

Against Link in 2003, Tanner would be projected to get 3.44%. OUCH.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Weird, I did the same earlier today and wound up above 4.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

So technically, Tanner is even weaker than Adventure.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Oh, and even more amusing:

Mr. Driller would win a match against Tanner with around 61%. You can't suck much more than that.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I just redid it, and it gave me exactly 4.

Nonetheless, he's only barely stronger than Adventure. Ms. Pac-Man would beat him 70-30, and Mr. Driller 65-35.

Geesh, getting doubled by every contestant ever save Mr. Driller = you suck and should never come back.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Well, my math was pretty rough, so yours is probably right, Slow.

But the big question is:

If Tanner and Gordon Freeman faced each other, would the universe implode in a state of quantum indecision?
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

This is so pathetic on so many levels I don't even know where to begin. I would have thought that if Tanner had enough support to actually get him nominated he could get at least enough votes to get 10%. Hell, Snake couldn't even get over 82% against Raiden. Even with Twin Snakes, Tanner is the suckiest bunch of suck to have ever sucked in this contest. I would love to see a Tanner Vs. Ms. Pac-Man match sometime just to laugh my ass off at the result.

Does anybody know how many characters would get over 90% against Tanner?

Oh, and how do you guys compare characters and games? It's not like there's ever been a direct match-up between two of them.
---
Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

How many characters would get 90% on Tanner? I'll answer that in a minute.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

I'm loving the fad today. We're all trying to figure out if Tanner can beat anything, and he can't. **** the Nibelhein Innkeeper, let's go right for the Jidoor Auctioneer! I bet you he could own Tanner's ass before selling away all of his parts as if he were a car.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Okay, so in the 2003 X-Sts, the gap between Tails and Bomberman is the cutoff point.

Meaning TAILS would get 90% on Tanner.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

And Gordon Freeman would get 87% on Tanner. Surprising, given that not even Cloud could get that on Freeman.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Meaning TAILS would get 90% on Tanner.

Oh, Moses smell the roses.

This is just. . .AAAGHHH!

Imagine if there was a poll between CATS, Gordon Freeman and Tanner. GameFAQS would spontaneously combust.
---
Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

Selphie vs. Tanner: Selphie's annoying, but she has TJF working for her, so she'd win.

Cait Sith vs. Tanner: The giant marshmellow would manage to leak enough FFVII votes to beat him.

Ramza vs. Tanner: THE POWER OF BUTT PANTS COMPELLS YOU... to vote Ramza over him.

Kid Icarus vs. Tanner: People implode upon the realization they have no idea who either of them are, Kid Icarus wins via the Old-School vote.

CATS? He'd get 85% on Tanner. X to the D to the W to the T to the F.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

I bet the Wonder Chef from Tales of Symphonia would demolish Tanner. I'd love to see it too.
---
Current Contest Score: 14/15
Today's Pick: Solid Snake

Don't underestimate Wonder Chef. You're looking at 2005 champion material.
---
The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.

Well I'm staring at his pathetic score I can only think of one thing. HOW DID THIS BUM GET IN?
---
SC2k4 Winner: Link
Status: 13/14 Next Pick: Knuckles

I dont think the extrapolateds work in this case. I assume most of the Tanner votes are pity votes, so they would probably vote for him no matter who he is facing.
That being said

Luca Blight>>>>>> Tanner.
---
Yuber sucks so bad that Rody could probably solo him. With his starting runes.- King in Teal
Married SemiFinal vs Belarus on 6/1/04

Who cares, we KNOW they're hardly accurate in such matches.

It's just that Tails, GF and CATS bring so much to the table in terms of fun factor.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

Well I'm staring at his pathetic score I can only think of one thing. HOW DID THIS BUM GET IN?

Who cares how he got in? When Snake is done with Tanner, Tanner won't be able to sit anywhere for weeks! XD He won't WANT to come back!! *ROTFL*

-Tai

Trying to comprehend Gordon Freeman getting 87% on anyone is enough to make your head explode.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Ok, no one could possibly say that Kerrigan is less deserving of a spot than this. Heck, i think of all of the characters i nominated who failed to get into the contest and can't think of a single one who shouldnt pull 70 percent+ on this waste of a spot.

I mean, we practically need a new designation just for Tanner. Fodder Fodder?
---
2k4 - The Summer of Sephiroth.

We can basically summarize Tanner in three words:

Worst. entrant. ever.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Can we all agree that Mass Carriers would get over 100% on Tanner?

100%? You're looking at about 125% at worst!
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Can we all agree that Mass Carriers would get over 100% on Tanner?

The lowest Mass Carriers would get on anybody is 75% because they = instant win ;).
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

And Gordon Freeman would get 87% on Tanner. Surprising, given that not even Cloud could get that on Freeman.

Dear. God.
---
***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
This year is Sephiroth's year! Contest Score: 15/15, Next Winner: Solid Snake

That's actually hilarious. Tanner is so bad he couldn't manage to get so much as 6% on Solid Snake, that's just so laughable.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Ken Masters, "Rising Dragon of Flame"

Tanner could be the only choice in his match, and he'd still lose.

Seriously, forget fodder. When the current "super fodder" characters like CATs and AiAi make Tanner look like super fodder...holy crap.

I bestow upon Tanner the title of "omega fodder."
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

This is hilarious.
---
Remember Dr T? Now he's back, in POG FORM!
Proud supporter of Viewtiful Joe!

I think Tanner got the worst first round draw that he could possibly manage. I'd imagine that he appeals to the same fanbase that Solid Snake does, and almost nobody in their right mind would prefer Tanner over him.

Dude... that's exactly what I said.

"Or perhaps there is SFF. Not company (Er, Tanner's from Driv3r, right?) They draw from the same "cool" audience, which prefers MGS/Snake."
---
Link, Alucard, Magus, Crono, Mario, Knuckles, Kefka, Cloud, Sonic...
And Frog.

Um... So does anyone have any estimates on Cloud's percentage tomorrow? </blatant attempt to change the subject>
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

I just love the multiple topics talking about Snake possibly beating Mega Man now. People are so easily swayed.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

I'm sure you do =P. Is MM always underestimated this badly by the board? Or is Snake always overestimated?
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

I have to hand it to you guys. I'm on the floor laughing my ass off. Even Tai's post had me cracking up. That's how much Tanner sucks. (and yes, that was a compliment to Tai)

I'm loving this. Nothing like a bum to bring us fellow bums together.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I agree Ulti, I've been dying reading some of these posts. Awesome stuff.

I think smitelf might have said it best, in response to Gordon gettting 87% on Tanner: "Dear. God."
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

Like I've been saying for Ryu H. vs. Jill, the average voter/user hasn't played the NES

And to be fair, Ninja Gaiden Trilogy was released on the SNES.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Tanner is about 700 votes away from beating Solid Snake's vote total in the first hour of the match

Can he make it?
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

looks like Tanner will get the 700 votes needed in less then 4 hours
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

What an accomplishment ;).
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Miles "Tails" Prower: 90% 76500
Tanner: 10% 8500
TOTAL VOTES 85000

LOFL! This would be the best thing ever!
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
SC2K4 Score: 16/16 Next Pick: Cloud

Tails with 90% > Gordon Freeman with 87%
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

"Geesh, getting doubled by every contestant ever save Mr. Driller = you suck and should never come back."

I means he should have never been in in the first place, wihch I said long ago.

"I would have thought that if Tanner had enough support to actually get him nominated he could get at least enough votes to get 10%. "

Who said he got nominated in?

"Meaning TAILS would get 90% on Tanner."

*giggles like a school girl*

"Ramza vs. Tanner: THE POWER OF BUTT PANTS COMPELLS YOU... to vote Ramza over him."

Dude, Ramza is one of the many who would get 90% on Tanner.

"Kid Icarus vs. Tanner: People implode upon the realization they have no idea who either of them are, Kid Icarus wins via the Old-School vote."

I'm so willing to back a Kid Icarus campaign if anyoen starts one.

"Well I'm staring at his pathetic score I can only think of one thing. HOW DID THIS BUM GET IN?"

Ceej rigged it so that Tanner, who happens to have a well selling new games, got in regardless because he deserves it, or some bs liek that.

"Ok, no one could possibly say that Kerrigan is less deserving of a spot than this."

I'd suggest a hot poker up the ass before lettign Tanner come back. That being said, of course Kerrigan is better than Tanner.

"Tanner could be the only choice in his match, and he'd still lose."

Heh.

"Is MM always underestimated this badly by the board"

The whole damn site unersetimates MM everytime. A bunch of fools who will never beat me is what they are.

Well, I guess all I have to say is that Tanner is as defective as Driv3r. Atari, please take him back now!
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

CJayC HIMSELF would get over 90% on Tanner.....
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Well duh, CJayC has much more character development.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

I didn'T wanted to start a thread over something with barely any importance so I thought here was the best placed for a probably over asked question.

Is there a reason why the stats haven't been updated or it's just like that for no reason except that it's not done yet?
---
Character Battle. 15/15

Well duh, CJayC has much more character development.

Yeah, he's like Anakin Skywalker, except without the redemption at the end.
---
***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
This year is Sephiroth's year! Contest Score: 15/15, Next Winner: Solid Snake

I've been at work all day. I got home and voted, thinking that maybe Snake would get lucky and break 90%. Of course, there has to be some limit to the level of suckiness of a character, so probably not. I clicked my vote for Snake, and promptly fell off my chair.

How is it physically possible to suck so much that TAILS would break 90% on you?

This is unbelievable. I didn't think Snake could break 90% on anyone, and he's almost up to 95! Link, LoZ, and MM are all very strong competitors who went up against insanely weak opponents. Tanner doing this poorly against Snake, SNAKE, is unreal.

Snake will have the biggest character blowout ever, and he won't be too far behind LoZ/Adventure, either.

*Realizes the Gordon Freeman could get 87% on Tanner*

*EXPLODES*
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Vana, there are server troubles.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Tomorrow, we will find out what % of the brackets had Knuckles winning.

I'm so willing to back a Kid Icarus campaign if anyoen starts one.

Pit was one of the first people I had in my in-development Ultra-Snubs bracket, even ahead of Serge and Wesker. I'm in if people want him in SC2K5.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

I'm guessing around 60% or so.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I would say it's the other way around...

And I'm all for a Kid Icarus campaign...
---
I chose the road less traveled -- now where the heck am I?
A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words, But It Uses Up a Thousand Times the Memory

43% had Knux
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

And only 800 perfects left =D.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

800 perfects remain, an even beigger cut than I predicted. HM and I are still short of the leaderboard though. I, unfortunately, made a last minute change... I'm sure I'll get it though.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

From 2529 perfect brackets to 800?! *ROTFL*

Those Squareheads fell flat on their faces!! XD How amusing!

"Those Squareheads fell flat on their faces!!"

Far from it, and stop trolling woulda ya. Believe me, it's not just square fans that blew that one. A lot of people could hate Kefka and think he was able to win.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I went from 42nd to 13th

O_O

also

37 DarkKeyblade 15 Sora
---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

You're asking Tai to stop trolling, Chichiri? That's like preaching to the choir. What do you think his main account was warned for in the first place?
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

My position is looking better with each match, even though there are still a few perfects left.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 14/15 Points: 014 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Oh, and we're down to 20 zero brackets left. Will it happen this year?
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Shadow Doom Blaze is one of those 20!
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

the only unfortunate thing is that the next big shift is Vyse/Laharl and we have no clue who the winner will be let alone the prediction %.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

n00b question: Is Shadow Doom Blaze an alt of yours, Ulti?
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

I would say at least 75% of the brackets have Vyse winning... Probably more.
---
I chose the road less traveled -- now where the heck am I?
A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words, But It Uses Up a Thousand Times the Memory

Far from it, and stop trolling woulda ya. Believe me, it's not just square fans that blew that one. A lot of people could hate Kefka and think he was able to win.

What the [....] is your point? Is that relevant to what I said? No. Maybe people other than Square fans fell, but Square fans fell none the less.

See my point?

Anyways, and there are also only 20 zero brackets left. Weren't they like 70 or 80 before?

wow. just wow. this new Tanner-level of patheticness is absurd. just for kicks, i refreshes the vote totals repeatedly to see how long it would take for Tanner to get a vote. Solid Snake got 52 votes before Tanner got a single vote. even one of the cars from Driv3r could do better than Tanner.

and only 43.05% of the brackets had Knuckles. holy crap. Kefka vs. Knuckles is currently the most difficult match of the contest to predict, even though Knuckles won. anyone else think bracket voters might have accounted for Kefka's improvement? and man, we went from 2529 perfect brackets to 800. that's amazing that Kefka must be the only character to have MORE people put faith in him after putting up a god-awful performance.

btw - there's only 20 zero brackets left. how many of you guys have zero brackets still going?

---
That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.

From: Mumei | Posted: 8/16/2004 8:06:07 PM | Message Detail
n00b question: Is Shadow Doom Blaze an alt of yours, Ulti?

Yes. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go and take a nap. ChichiriMuyo, would you mind creating Part 38 if this topic hits 450 within a few hours? I'll be awake in an hour or two, but a backup would be nice, just in case.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

That really surprises me...800 perfects...

We went from 33,000 to 11,000 brackets in the first division. We went from 11,000 brackets to 800 brackets the next! Talk about a HUGE weeding of brackets.

I'm also surprised Kefka was the underdog against Pac-Man, yet he wasn't against Pac-Man. Well, either seeding is a huge influence on the bracket-makers, or people have little faith in Knuckles (and therefore, Yuna, also!).

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Anyways, and there are also only 20 zero brackets left. Weren't they like 70 or 80 before?

There were 59, I believe.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Let's put it this way, Tai... I'm a huge fan of square and wish Kefka would have won that. I remain perfect. You have the logic funtions of a 3 year old. Some square fans missed it, some non-fans missed it. Soem Square fans got it, some non-fans got it. What your preference is has nothing to do with whether or not your lost your perfect yesterday. I'd be surprised if even one perfect bracket up until yesterday was anybodies "favorites" bracket. Anyone who was perfect yesterday was playing to win, and company loyalty had nothing to do with the choice of Kefka over Knuckles.

Please, once in your life, use your brain for a fraction of a second.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

No prob Ulti.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"We went from 33,000 to 11,000 brackets in the first division. We went from 11,000 brackets to 800 brackets the next! Talk about a HUGE weeding of brackets."

Yeah, and people were talking as if we'd be relying on tiebreakers to set apart all the perfect brackets at the end of the contest! We'll be lucky to see a 0 bracket, and at this rate we'd also be lucky to have any perfects survive as long as they did in 2k3.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Chichiri is right, I mean I even voted for Kefka, but when I made the bracket, I somehow knew I should put Knuckle instead. This is the first contest I really put up thinking who would win, and not, who do I want to win, but my perfect score is probably going to disappear very soon, unless I'm lucky. Too many uncertain choices are ahead.
---
Character Battle. 15/15

The next division has three matches with the potential to bust a lot of perfects...

Vyse/Laharl
Ness/Jak
Vivi/DK.

It's gonna hurt. I fthere's a signle seeding upset I see a real chance of perfects dropping to the double digits before Sonic/Terry. Of course, there's no reason to expect a seeding upset this time around, but it's within the realm of possibility.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Vyse/Laharl
Ness/Jak
Vivi/DK.

It's gonna hurt. I fthere's a signle seeding upset I see a real chance of perfects dropping to the double digits before Sonic/Terry. Of course, there's no reason to expect a seeding upset this time around, but it's within the realm of possibility.

Ironic all of my winners are the lower seeds

---
Summer 2004 Contest 15/15 Solid Snake vs. Tanner

I still like my Vyse over Laharl pick considering we'll get a lot of bracket votes for Vyse (or so it seems) there.

I like Jak over Ness simply because I feel Jak will take in the popular vote.

However, I am feeling less and less confident in my pick of Vivi over DK. I don't know why, I just am.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

*Casual vote, not popular there.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Now I think it's safe to say that Vivi will be the bracket favorite against Donkey Kong, and if it's a close match (knowing DK it probably will be), that could be the difference. People see the magic words "Final Fantasy" and they think instant win.

Heh, Cloud should have mid-90s against Duke Nukem, and Sephiroth should get extremely high numbers. He should only have the zero brackets to contend with and not much else. Auron could probably have as high as 75% of the brackets picking him to beat Scorpion.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I don't think there will be any seeding upsets in any of those three matches, but I do think that a lot of people probably picked DK over Vivi.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

DK has name recognition, Vivi has game recognition. Its a tough one. Either way I'd probably be feeling the same way.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

However, I am feeling less and less confident in my pick of Vivi over DK. I don't know why, I just am.

Same here, only because Ulti seems confident in his pick of DK over Vivi.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

There's little reason to worry about Vivi. As we've seen... while Kefka didn't iwn he did better than expeced. If Kefka can exceed mathmatical expectations by such an ammount Vivi can overcome DK. Really, how many people do you tihnk would take Kefka over Vivi in a match while making a serious bracket? That plus the fact that DK is quite a bit weaker than Knux and I think while it may be close that Vivi will win. Perhaps, like Tidus, it may come down to looking like the bracket voters made it happen (which he should have for being the higher seed) but it will still happen for him.

And remember, DK barely beat Aya Brea... would you take Aya over Vivi?

And char, I'm sorry, but you can't stay perfect for much longer. While I could see one upset in the next division two is hard to beleive, 3 is impossible to believe. We've had 1 upset in the course of two full divisions and we KNEW that'd be an upset. To bank on 3 upsets when one seems very unlike, another seems unlikly but possible and the third is up in the air is suicidal.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"Heh, Cloud should have mid-90s against Duke Nukem, and Sephiroth should get extremely high numbers."

I don't know. Duke Nukem isn't exactly as weak as Tanner and is arguably the strongest 16th seed here. Cloud doesn't have a tendency to blow out weaker opponents like Sephiroth, Mega Man or Link yet he does a lot better later on. As someone mentioned earlier, Cloud is stronger overall regardless of his earlier match performances. Sephiroth on the other hand, beats on the early competition so hard that they wouldn't even be able to get up off the floor.

I'd say Cloud with about 85-88% but I could be wrong of course. He did shock everyone with the showing against Sonic last year.

Cloud, unless he has taken another dramatic rise, shouldn't break 90 on Duke.

On the othrehand, I can't even imagine Sly Cooper being as strong as Ratchet, which is rather shameful, so I do beleive Seph is capable of 90%
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I think he was talking about the percentage of brackets correctly predicting the match, not the percentage of votes Cloud was going to get.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Do you guys think Vyse should be able to win his match? He doesn't seem to be very strong, but Laharl seems weak as well. I have Vyse winning, I hope that's not a missed point.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

If that were the case, Dp, then I seen no reason why either would fail to get in the high 90's. There's simply no reason to believe that Cloud and Seph are even capable of losing round one. That being said, it's unreasonable to expect less than 96-97%
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Yes, I was referring to prediction percentages. If Cloud does better than 85% against Duke, I'd be surprised. He's the strongest 16 seed.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Agreed.

Do you guys think Vyse should be able to win his match?

I don't see why he wouldn't. I have Laharl in my bracket, but there's enough of a case to have either of them win. Vyse should be the bracket favourite, though.
---
"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

Bracket voting has been brought up as an excuse for yesterday's match, so I thought I'd take a look at it statistically and see how it stacks up. Twice, actually; once done strictly with the XS values last year, and once assuming there was SFF in Crono/Kefka (so that Pac Man doesn't change).

No SFF first:
There were 82,798 votes yesterday. Kefka was supposed to get 30.37% of them, which is 25,143. He actually received 35,220, a difference of 10,077. There were 18,829 brackets with Kekfa winning, which means that 53.52% of them would have normally voted for Knuckles, but changed their vote because of their bracket. I don't buy that at all.

SFF:
Keeping Pac Man constant between 2k2 and 2k3 gives Kefka's % against Crono to be 27.13% (6.05% SFF) and 20.03% on Cloud.
There were 82,798 votes yesterday. Kefka was supposed to get 39.09% of them, which is 32,366. He actually received 35,220, a difference of 2,854. There were 18,829 brackets with Kekfa winning, which means that 15.16% of them would have normally voted for Knuckles, but changed their vote because of their bracket. Sounds reasonable with SFF, doesn't it?

IT'S A TRAP!

If there was SFF in Kefka/Crono, PM would be expected to get 19.65% on Cloud and 40.22% on Luigi. He got 32.27%, so clearly, something is still missing. Less than 70% of bracket makers picked Luigi, too, so don't bring that up.

Conclusion: Bracket voters may have messed up Kefka/Knux, but only if there was SFF in Kekfa/Crono. Otherwise, the number is way too high to be believable. However, making the assumption that there was Kefka/Crono SFF causes problems with Luigi/Pac Man, so the mystery still isn't solved. One or many of these characters changed drastically: Luigi or Kefka up, Pac Man or Knux down.
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

And I also said that Auron might get as high as 75% against Scorpion, which I know wouldn't happen, contest-wise. I was just talking about the big bracket advantage the Final Fantasy characters will enjoy in the remaining matches.

Squall could get mid-to-upper-80s on Bomberman, actually.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Im sorry, but I see ne reason to believe Cloud would only get 85% of the brackets. Duke's chances of winning against Yoshi would look as good Yoshi's... which is near 0 to anybody with any past contest experience. That being said, you think that Cloud is barely more favored in bracket making than Yoshi? I can't see Duke getting say... 25% on Yoshi. that's way beyond him, and he'd probably have to get even more than that on Yoshi to make 15% on Cloud look reasonable. Considering that the brackets are better than they've ever been in terms of nailing the super easy matches I'd have to say that 15% of the brackets won't be devoted to Duke.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Im sorry, but I see ne reason to believe Cloud would only get 85% of the brackets.

I thought he was talking about the percentage of votes in the most recent post.
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Sorry, I should really be more clear.

Prediction percentage: Cloud with mid-90s

Actual match: Cloud with less than 85%
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

800 perfect brackets left and I'm still missing from the leaderboard? Sheesh. Here I thought I could possibly see myself up there before the next close match. =\
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Okay, that's more sensible Leonhart.

And HM, I expect to see you up there before Vivi/DK... or after it if you picked Vivi.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I'm really surprised I'm not up there yet as well. I finished mine pretty early. My next big chance should be after Vyse-Laharl. At this point, I don't expect many perfects to fall off the leaderboard with matches like this. If you've lasted this long, you're more than likely serious about winning.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

*agrees with hm*
---
Go vote in today's survivor please!!!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=15716433

I hope so, and yeah I picked Vivi.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

DK almost definitely has the bracket votes. Most people who haven't played FFIX probably don't even know who Vivi is. Vivi winning this would definitely be an upset to the bracket voters. I can see the boards reaction now if that were to happen.... In fact I'm banking on it.... ^_^ Most people probably wouldn't vote for the name Vivi, but when they look at the poll and see VIVI it will be a different story. And no it's not the pic factor, or the Black Mage factor. It's the VIVI factor. People will look at Vivi and look at DK and vote for Vivi because there is nothing about DK that would make you vote for him. (You like the way I'm passively telling people to vote for Vivi huh? Look at dem psychology skills) Seriously, though. I hope I'm right.

Vyse vs. Laharl? I honestly had no idea who Laharl was OR what Disgaea was. Last year, I didn't know who Vyse was, but I was familiar with Skies of Arcadia. I would consider myself a pretty avid gamer, not nearly hardcore. So I can see others not knowing who the hell Laharl is. Plus, Vyse should have SOMEWHAT more recognition being in the contest last year. Appearance wise, they both look pretty cool. I personally like Laharl better. His appearance is wicked. I bet that Disgaea is a great game although I probably won't get into it.

Jak/Ness? I wonder which picture Jak will get... from his first game or from his second? For those that don't know, he has a totally different look in his second game. Apparantly he was in jail for 2 years and is on a revenge trip in the second game. If you look for yourself, his second look is WAY better than the original. Jak & Daxter and Jak II as games actually look pretty decent. I might go pick J&D up from Gamespot for 10 bucks. Anyways, nonetheless Ness has absolutely no appeal to me whatsoever. I don't care that he was in SSB or SSBM. As said before, all people in that game aren't equal in popularity. Just because he's in that game doesn't make you have to like him. This match will be close though... if Ness has any chance to gain some respect in this contest, it will be against someone like Jak.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Score-Brackets-% Right
14---2529------31.6330565
13---6754------35.875037
12---8488------39.9622997
11---7228------45.3929164
10---4529------49.9448002
9----2248------55.3825623
8----861-------61.5563298
7----287-------66.2020906
6----100-------62.0000000
5----28--------71.4285714
4----6---------66.6666667
3----16--------62.5000000
2----40--------67.5000000
1----61--------47.5409836
0----46--------56.5217391

The perfects did the worst out of all the groups in this match. A larger percentages of 0 brackets got that match right(as in Knuckles winning not a "zero" right) compared to the perfects.

Actually the perfects didn't do worst. That honor goes to the people on the Top 50. Only 15 people on the top 50 got the match right, 30%. The 35 people who didn't are Golbez451, Change of Season, Dumb Name, bjkrautk, amm11387, DonJuanDelaNooch, DirtyOlMan1987, ulanshad, The Cuttster, MewtwoX, MWNash, ssj3atrix, Faelim, beastiecube182, nebneb, Katon, canadamon, Alynna, lucied1, madshot, GANON1025, mohmaster, tsutter810, Brad Da Man, BRIAN11, MysticWeirdo, Asian the Saiyan, Eoin, Lizard Axe, Docter Bob, war pheonix, Forte X2, MasterForce, Genjuro Kibagami and TheShadowGuy.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

I think you have to be pretty serious about winning to get to day 14 with a perfect bracket. Yes, it just so happens to be that the first time the lower seed wins a ton of brackets drop, but the fact that Kefka is from Square put more faith in him than his seeding. Remember, the majority already went with an upset pick in Liquid Snake, so they know seeds can be deceptive (as the majority no doubt believed LS the superior). Some people surely thought Kefka had a legit shot at it, and that's that.

If all goes according to plan, I expect half the field to be dropped by the end of the next division. Most of those will have chosen DK.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Eh, I figure if enough new school Final Fantasy gamers know that Kefka is one of their own, they know that Vivi is as well.

I'd expect to see the picture from Jak II in his match against Ness. Like you said, there's a big difference in their looks, and he should get his most recent appearance here. Jak and Daxter is a good series. The first one is basically a platforming adventure, but the second one is very diverse. It's got a lot of different elements in it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

If you said that you were not interested/not eligible in the prize, will you not be shown in the top 50?
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

You'll still make the top 50, but you just won't get a prize if you finish in the top 10.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

And yeah, if they know Kefka well enough I'd have a feeling they'd at least know of Vivi. I couldn't imagine him being "unknown" on a site completly biased toward Final Fantasy RPGs.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Prize eligibility has nothing to do with the top 50 as evidenced by two brackets from the same user only two spots away, MedigoUltima and MedigoMeteo. The higher one (which I believe has Link winning) is prize eligible while the other is not.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

I don't care about the prize because I never expected to win in the first place =).
---
WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

Not to mention that Final Fantasy 9 out ranks 6 on the top faqs of all-time. While FAQs are bad indicators of popularity they do show that people around here have heard of FF9 and played it. I couldn't in a million years see Vivi being on the level of Ramza and Kefka because FF9 was way, way bigger than Tactics and looks better than both games. This is still the age of graphics whores, and FF9 looks pretty damn good for a PSX game.

Besides, black mages kick ass, and everyone knows it.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

The reason the perfects did so poorly is because a lot of people simply filled out their brackets according to the seeding. Anyone who wasn't perfect necessarily did not fall into this group. Additionally, the people who filled their brackets out QUICKLY were more likely to follow that strategy. After all, it doesn't require much thought!
---
"Oh my God, the dead have risen and they're voting Republican!" - Bart Simpson

The reason the perfects did so poorly is because a lot of people simply filled out their brackets according to the seeding. Anyone who wasn't perfect necessarily did not fall into this group. Additionally, the people who filled their brackets out QUICKLY were more likely to follow that strategy. After all, it doesn't require much thought!

I totally agree, I was thinking the same thing--the conditional probability of the people in the Top 50 being the ones who just quickly picked the higher seeds was probably pretty high, because of the tiebreaker.
---
Data for all matches - http://sc2k4.com/displaytable.php
SC2K4.com/Frog

"The reason the perfects did so poorly is because a lot of people simply filled out their brackets according to the seeding."

Which is why the brackets favored LS over Frog, right? I think the vast majority of serious bracket makers weren't looking at seeds, the were looking at a Final Fantasy character and a Sonic character.

"Anyone who wasn't perfect necessarily did not fall into this group."

Anyone who wasn't perfect couldn't fit into that category. I estimated the loses to be 1k after that match. I still think that no less than 1k of those missed because of seed selection. I'd find 1/3 of the lost brackets a believable amount, but stretching it further is something I just can't buy.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Yes. It made sense from teh beginning. I merely stated that I don't ifnd it likely that the majority of those lost yesterday were in that group. A large portion I'd believe, but not the majority.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Oh, and HM, the Japanese KoF Maximum Impact site has Terry's 2P outfit we were talking abotu awhile ago.

http://www.snkplaymore.jp/official/kof/character/terry2p.html

And she still needs to get in...

http://www.snkplaymore.jp/official/kof/character/mai.html

But her 2P outfit....................

And I think with a close-up head shot, especially a fairly decent one like the following, would have helped all the SNK characters

http://www.snkplaymore.jp/official/kof/character/kyo.html

Too bad their pics were nearly unidentifiable. Let's hope Ceej doesn't do that to Terry again.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

MedigoMeteo - Cloud Strife
MedigoUltima - Link??????

Can you say multiple bracket any louder than that?
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Oops, headshots are here...

http://www.snkplaymore.jp/official/kof/character/index.html
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

"MedigoMeteo - Cloud Strife
MedigoUltima - Link??????

Can you say multiple bracket any louder than that? "

No, but he has states on multiple occasions that he entered both bracket exactly the same except with different winners and that MedigoMeteo is set to "not eligible"
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Okay, I figured as much. I just found it funny.
---
"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

After 70,000 votes are cast, Tanner finally breaks 4,000. Will he get more than 686 in the last 4 and a half hours to avoid racking in fewer votes than Adventure?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Oh, and HM, the Japanese KoF Maximum Impact site has Terry's 2P outfit we were talking abotu awhile ago.

Oh, thanks! Man, I'm glad to see his outfit from MoW looking good. Can't wait to see how the game turns out, and should be better for Terry in years to come thanks to it being 3D.
---
SC2k4 Winner: Mega Man
Fight Mega Man, for everlasting peace!

Predictions for the "hard" matches of bracket 3:

Vyse/Laharl: I've met very few people who've played Disgaea and don't like it. I think this match is 55/45 either way, but I'm taking Laharl just because I feel their fanboys are more vocal.

Ness/Jak: As I've said many times, I'm predicting Ness is doubled up by Jak, and I'll eat my hat if Ness even gets 45% on him. Ness has no chance, none, zip, zilch, nadaa. Ness is fodder from a cult game that is not even that great to begin with, and yes I have played it, and outside that core fanbase he has will be known by no one.

Vivi/DK: Hey Vivi, have you met these people, Kingdom Hearts and Frog... Frog? Vivi wins in a close match where DK is the favorite in the brackets while Vivi's on the boards, ala KH and Frog.

The only problem is that I've also met very few people who've played Disgaea period.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"and outside that core fanbase he has will be known by no one."

Really, that's funny, because I am not an Earthbound fan (only played to fourside, at most) and I know who Ness. And I bet a lot of others do know Ness from another little known game called Super Smash bros.

Sure, Ness couldn't beat Bowser, but Jak is no Bowser. Hell, Jak is no Conker, and Jak has a lot to worry about.

*Note: That isn't how I know Ness, but it's how a lot will.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Ness/Jak: As I've said many times, I'm predicting Ness is doubled up by Jak, and I'll eat my hat if Ness even gets 45% on him. Ness has no chance, none, zip, zilch, nadaa. Ness is fodder from a cult game that is not even that great to begin with, and yes I have played it, and outside that core fanbase he has will be known by no one.

For Jak to double Ness, he has to be as strong Yuna and Sam Fischer (about 22.5% on Cloud), way out of Crash (16.89%) and Ratchet's (12.44%) league. This assumes no SFF in Bowser/Ness, too; with that, Jak would have to be even higher.

There's good reason to believe in Bowser/Ness SFF, simply because Earthbound was much, much stronger than Ness and that doesn't compute.
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

My Ness/Jak mini-analysis.

Jak will win, although the highest I can see him getting is 53%, EB is too popular on this board for us to let that happen. Jak will obviously pull in the casual vote. Who is a kid with a PS2 as his first console going to vote for? A guy with a gun or a little kid (assuming CJayC uses a SSBM pic).

Bracket voting I'm guessing will be close, however looking at all the hype for this match you never know, it could end up being a Tidus vs. Shadow or a Frog vs. Liquid.

People say that Jak is about on the level of popularity as Ratchet. Looking at the Extrapolateds from last year, I see that Ratchet is 1 spot below CATS. That's right, CATS. I believe that Jak would be able to double up on CATS, eliminating that factor. Ness is one spot above CATS. That speaks for itself

Jak 52.35 over Ness
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

I don't think there's any way that Jak will double up on Ness. Sure, Ness is weak, but Jak isn't strong enough to double up. He'll probably sneak by.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Now that I think about it, Laharl will probably be on Luca Blight's level. They both have rabid and vocal fanbases, but they're not very large.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

People say that Jak is about on the level of popularity as Ratchet. Looking at the Extrapolateds from last year, I see that Ratchet is 1 spot below CATS. That's right, CATS. I believe that Jak would be able to double up on CATS, eliminating that factor. Ness is one spot above CATS. That speaks for itself.

More XS fun: Jak doubling CATS would stick him between Ken and Tails with approx. 20% on Cloud. Again, this is out of Crash's reach, and I really doubt that Jak is stronger than Crash.
---
Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

Vyse vs. Laharl? I honestly had no idea who Laharl was OR what Disgaea was.

Why do I let you live?
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

But it's not unthinkable for Jak to be as strong as Crash. They're both made by Naughty Dog (or at least Crash WAS. He's been on the downward spiral since ND quit making his games), and their games are pretty similar.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I don't see what's so hard to believe about that. Sure Ken would be stronger than him but by the time this contest is over his popularity will have risen a lot thanks to SF: Anniversary Collection. Jak from an up and coming PS2 franchise would probably be about as strong as the weakest character from a faltering Sonic franchise (i.e. Tails).
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

And I'm aware that being from the same company doesn't mean characters are the same strength. We know that's not true. I'm just saying that Jak has the potential to be on Crash's level. Doesn't mean he will.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Crash in his beginning Naughty Dog days would be stronger than Jak is now. Figure in the years of deterioration that Crash has suffered since ND stopped making Crash games, and being since Jak is fresh, I'd say right now Jak is more popular than Crash.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Not that this means much, but I have a couple of friends who have never played Earthbound and know who Ness is from SSB and SSBM. Ness is not as obscure as many seem to think.

.

If Jak is stronger than Conker I'll eat MY hat... and I wear my hat while working in a deli... it's greasy beyond belief.

Conker would be able to get 62-63% on CATS according to 2k3 (2k4 stats will likely show otherwise).

Conker would be able to get 57-58% on Ness assuming no SFF. I wouldn't bet the farm on Jak being stronger than Conker.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

But he doesn't HAVE to be on that level. All he has to do is be on the level that Crash is right now. He is an up and coming franchise right now, while Crash has not done anything notable in the last year.

Jak = or > then Crash is not hard to believe.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

If Jak is as strong as Crash, then the question becomes: How much SFF did Bowser earn against Ness?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Sure Bowser vs. Ness is Nintendo. But I doubt that means as much as some people make it out to be. Bowser's fanbase (i.e, Mario, Luigi, and Yoshi's Fanbase) are not equal to Ness's fanbase, (People who voted for Frog but are not blatant FF fanboys). I don't expect the SFF to be enough to take down Jak.

Oh, and I didn't do any of this analysis before the contest. I just guessed and lurked the board.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

"and being since Jak is fresh,"

Right, because the strongest character to be created in the last 3 years is...

Tidus.

Well, Jak isn't that high because Tidus is a FF lead so...

Shadow, that's the ticket... but wait, he was added to a well established series, just like Tidus, so he had a fanbase before he existed and they just didn't know it yet.

Wait, Auron doens't count either, being another strong FF character...

Okay, Dante. Yeah, Dante. And Jak... isn't as cool as Dante. Jak is in a platformer. Platformers aren't respected here unless the series is old. They take years to establish themselves.

Master Chief and Tommy Vercetti. Perfect. Or, wait, no, because both of their games sold ten times more apiece than Jak's....

Sam Fisher? Nope, don't tihnk so. Splinter Cell also badly outsold Jak AND Sam happens to be considered a badass for whatever reason.

KOS... was in an RPG... So was Sora.

Oh wait, here's someone comparable to Jak...

RATCHET
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

This is just my opinion, but I'd pick Jak to beat Crash in a heartbeat.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

Bowser earned a LOT of SFF against Ness. Ness has to means of a "fanbase" in Earthbound and the SSB series. Bowser has Mario games and the SSB series. Obviously Earthbound fans vote Ness, Mario fans Bowser. The remaining votes from the SSB series probably go to Bowser. And if a large portion of Ness' fanbase is SSB/M he is stronger than he seems.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Vyse/Laharl: I'm one of the biggest Disgaea fans there is, and trust me, we're a very small group. Vyse will probably have around 75% of the brackets in his favor.

Ness/Jak: Why all the Jak love? Being similar to Crash doesn't make you cool. In fact, it makes you a loser whether your games are nice or not. I expect Jak to be stronger than Ratchet, but he couldn't beat Ratchet with 60% of the vote. I think that Ness has this thing won, even if it's a 53-47 type of match. With the sole exception of Liquid Snake, the higher seeds in this contest are getting the overwhelming majority of bracket voters in their side. I don't get how this match is supposed to be anhy different.

Vivi/DK: This is the most obvious of them all. If Knuckles can beat Kefka with a 57-43 clip, then why wouldn't DK be able to do the same to Vivi? It may be much closer, but still. DK is almost as strong as Knuckles, remember? I can't see Vivi being stronger than Kefka to the point of being able to beat DK. At all.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

I wouldn't take Jak to win over any of those guys you mentioned. I'm simply comparing him to two more weak characters: Crash and Ness.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Jak's games have outsold Ratchet's by over a million copies. Jak is way stronger than Ratchet. And Jak is not only more popular, he looks better.
---
Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

And Jak is not only more popular, he looks better

A-Are you serious? I-Is he serious? They look almost exactly the same.
---
The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"Jak = or > then Crash is not hard to believe."

Except that Crash has time to do the one thing that Jak hasn't... the one thing that every platformer above 32 has done... built up a franchise over a long period of time. For a platformer to carry any weigth here they MUST be established. Why? Because that's the only way they can get more than marginal amounts of the non-kiddy vote. Crash was big when the PS was big, and that's when a lot of GameFAQs voters started playing games.

"How much SFF did Bowser earn against Ness?"

Poeple may think none... but considering what Kefka has shown this year... 30% isn't unthinkable.

30% would put Ness on the level of Tails.

"Bowser's fanbase (i.e, Mario, Luigi, and Yoshi's Fanbase) are not equal to Ness's fanbase"

Yeah? And the same could be said of Crono and Kefka. Prove there wasn't SFF in that match, would ya? Hell, Ness is closer to Bowser than Kefka to Crono for both of them being in SSBM.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Crash has built up a franchise. I don't say he hasn't. But his franchise has been knocked down. He now resides on Candystand.com and crappy games on the GBA other that Jak, who has sold 2.4 million (or around there) game in the last, what, 2 years? He's gaining fanbase, and at the same time, I'd assume Crash is losing it.
---
Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Holy crap, only 43% of bracketeers picked Knuckles to beat Kefka.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I wasn't comparing Jak to any of those characters you mentioned, Chichiri. Obviously they are stronger than Jak. I was comparing Jak to Crash.

---
He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

"I can't see Vivi being stronger than Kefka to the point of being able to beat DK."

Riiiiiiiight... because the generation gap from FF6 to FF7 and later is so small that Kefka could nearly topple Sephiroth, right? The fact of the matter is that every FF pre-7 suffers a weakness that can't be overcome, age. Some peopel just won't play a game, no matter how good it is, because it's too old. Kefka and Ramza are bad ideals to base a Square character on because they don't represent the days where Square saw its best sales (At that time FF7 was an anomaly). Oh, and add to that the fact that DK is the most volatile flea-bag ever and you've got yourself some trouble.

Would you pick Aya over Vivi? Because if you wouldn't you're banking on DK holding on to a small lead, which as we know he has a hard time holding onto a 3000 vote lead. If you would, you know nothing about Square fans.

"Jak's games have outsold Ratchet's by over a million copies."

Well hand Mairo his championship, put Pikachu in the final four, and explain to Alucard that he couldn't really score that well on Ganondorf.


---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

If Knuckles can beat Kefka with a 57-43 clip, then why wouldn't DK be able to do the same to Vivi? It may be much closer, but still. DK is almost as strong as Knuckles, remember? I can't see Vivi being stronger than Kefka to the point of being able to beat DK. At all.

If Aya Brea can almost beat Donkey Kong, why can't Vivi beat him? If 4 other characters can fall between Knuckles and DK in the 2003 rankings, why can't Vivi? New school Final Fantasy characters are just more popular than the old school, or it could be that Final Fantasy VI has so many strong characters that the fanbase is very spread out between them. In general, Final Fantasy IX has few likeable characters. Vivi, Freya, Beatrix, and even Zidane to an extent are it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I can't see Vivi being stronger than Kefka to the point of being able to beat DK.

To me, it makes as much sense as Aya or KOS-MOS being able to beat Kefka, which they probably could.
---
Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

30% would put Ness on the level of Tails.

Are you serious? Tails got 35% on Auron. Bowser is defeinitely not as strong as Auron, but he is pretty close to him. Tails would probably get around 37% on Bowser.
---
SC2K4 Score: 14/15 Next Match: Solid Snake vs Tanner

If Aya Brea can almost beat Donkey Kong, why can't Vivi beat him?

Because the 2002 stats are pure ****.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

"Jak, who has sold 2.4 million (or around there) game in the last, what, 2 years? He's gaining fanbase, and at the same time, I'd assume Crash is losing it."

And none of that matters. Driv3r sold more copies than that in about 1/20th of the amount of time.

"I wasn't comparing Jak to any of those characters you mentioned, Chichiri."

And I wasn't directing my response at any one person... I just thought I'd wager my hat while assureing everyone that some people are severely overrating Jak.
---
True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Well hand Mairo his championship, put Pikachu in the final four, and explain to Alucard that he couldn't really score that well on Ganondorf.

When you're new, you have to get your face out there to the general public. Once you've been around long enough and/or your game has sold enough copies, people can know who you are without ever playing your game. Jak has been exposed to a much larger extent than Ratchet has.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

You guys should accept that Jak's suckiness and Ness' SFF against Bowser equals a big headed win.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

We don't even have to look at the 2002 extrapolated rankings. DK-Aya was a direct matchup.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Ness' SFF against Bowser equals a big headed win.

Prove that it exists first, without merely assuming that Ness performing that much lower than Earthbound just couldn't happen.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Also, I can't believe there's only 800 perfects left. WTF?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I can't actually PROVE it, but it is logical since a good portion of Ness' fanbase is probably from SSB/SSBM and I'm sure people would pick Bowser over Ness since they know his original game too.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"Are you serious? Tails got 35% on Auron. Bowser is defeinitely not as strong as Auron, but he is pretty close to him. Tails would probably get around 37% on Bowser."

Wow, it's as if some odd voter pattern would have to occur that would split Bowser and Ness in a way that they otherwise wouldn't be... as if they had a larger overlap in fanbases than two completely unrelated characters would... and that overlap favored Bowser greatly. Yes, they would have to have a similar, or perhaps even the same, fanbase for such a factor to exist.

And 30% isn't as severe as Crono/Kefka, whom I will remind you have even less cross-over due to never being in the same game.

"Because the 2002 stats are pure ****."

Of course they are, but not in a direct matchup. No matter how you look at it that is what Aya scored on DK, and there is absolutely no way of changing that fact. If you are goign to argue that Aya could have done worse anyone and their pant stains can argue that DK could have done worse.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

It may be logical, but that doesn't exactly mean it's true.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

But if it is logical, it is PROBABLY true. Which is the whole point.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

"Prove that it exists first"

Explain why Earthbound is significantly stronger than Ness if it doesn't? I mean, you come up with such logical explanations as "SSBM hurt Ness" when you try. Only one other Nintendo cahracter was beaten by their own game.. that was Mario... and Mario as a character suffers extreme abuse on this site while SMB3 is never attacked.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Also, I can't believe there's only 800 perfects left. WTF?

It only takes one mistake to lose your perfect. Believing the hype for a new entry, thinking that Tidus sucks, or just plain misentering a match can ruin your chances.
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"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

I bet the Kingdom Hearts Factor didn't sound very logical before the contest, but it turned out to be true. Samus getting a big increase due to Metroid Prime was a logical conclusion, but the rankings indicate that she didn't.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

The Kingdom Hearts Factor doesn't sound illogical to anyone who doesn't really want it to.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

People are tossing too many numbers around. I'm not basing any of my pics for these close ones on stats, sales, or any other numerical factor. I'm just taking the match one at a time.

You can pull out as many facts as you want about franchise sales, derivations of stats based on other contests, etc. but I'm still looking at the matches how they appear. I don't compare Jak to Crash at all.... I'm just looking at him going up against Ness. Like I said, just because you're more known doesn't mean you're more liked. I'm not calling a blowout in any of these matches. But Jak has more than enough of a chance vs. Ness. Same with Vivi vs. DK. I wouldn't compare DK to Knuckles. In a straight up match, I'd take Knuckles in a heartbeat. Vivi has darkhorse factors written all over him. I think he can pull it off.

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"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

But it probably wouldn't have sounded logical before the contest.
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WTF is OoS? Ocarina of Sex? ~ Stop Fundamentalists

It always sounded logical, some people just tried to make it sound illogical.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Explain why Earthbound is significantly stronger than Ness if it doesn't?

How do you guys figure out if a game is more or less popular than a character? It's not like there's ever been a Character Vs. Game match.
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Why do people cling to life when they know they can't live forever? Think how meaningless each of your lives is!--Kefka Palazzo

Oh really? A cameo in a Disney game giving Cloud enough of a boost to beat Link when he wasn't popular enough to beat Mario the year before sounded logical to you?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

"It always sounded logical, some people just tried to make it sound illogical."

Actually, it still doesn't sound logical, as long as you imply that all growth was KH related. KHF exists, yet it's not the force everyone claims it is.

Oh, and you should all stop talking about what did or didn't sound logical when or why... I'm highly tempted to throw out a lot of illogical things that can't at all be disproven.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Not when you say it like that. Which is what I was talking about when I said people tried to make it sound illogical.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Kingdom Hearts giving the Final Fantasy characters in it a boost in itself sounds logical, but the extent of the impact doesn't.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Well hand Mairo his championship, put Pikachu in the final four, and explain to Alucard that he couldn't really score that well on Ganondorf.

Yet your reasoning for why Tommy Vercetti and Master Chief would do better than Jak consisted solely of their games having outsold his. Try to be consistent.
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

"Which is what I was talking about when I said people tried to make it sound illogical."

Frankly it is illogical to attribute all of those increases (cloud, especially) to something such as KH. It contributed, but it wasn't the sole driving force.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Vyse vs. Laharl? I honestly had no idea who Laharl was OR what Disgaea was.

Why do I let you live?

lol, I'm not the only one who has said this! You know it's true!

But seriously, I'm behind on so many good games it's not even funny. I simply don't have the time to play them all. There are so many games that I haven't even touched yet.... Especially for PS2. The last big PS2 game that I bought was Kingdom Hearts.....

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"There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I just want everyone to know that I voted for Cloud,Squall,Aeris, and Sephiroth because back then I hadn't played FFVII or VIII, but they appeared in my favorite game of all time,Kingdom Hearts.

Not that it makes much of a difference but if that was my reason, then it must exist but only to a certain point.

*waits for everyone to say "We know that already"*
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Supporter of Sora for SC2K4!
freewebs.com/imdapartystar

lol, I'm not the only one who has said this! You know it's true!

Yes, but that doesn't mean it isn't a traveshamockery. We will find you, and you will know our wrath. We, the Disgaea New Ruling Class, will...

What do you mean, the acronym's been taken? Curses... we'll get you next time, Gadget. Next time!
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"Antigravity! It's not just for breakfast anymore!" - Joel
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) www.rpgdl.com

"Yet your reasoning for why Tommy Vercetti and Master Chief would do better than Jak consisted solely of their games having outsold his."

And I also said they outsold Jak by a factor of ten. That doesn't in any way mean anything of importance. The fact of the matter is that I loath the idea of admitting that MC has actually done anything to warrant his strength and I also don't think Tommy has really retained his. I don't think there's any real need to explain why those characters are better than Jak again and again and again. Platformers need one thing that Jak is desperately lacking... A long established franchise that reaches an older audience. Tommy is a one hit wonder and we've always known it. He is in GTAVC, and that's why he's here. He doesn't need to build anything, he was in the most widely talked about video game since MK. It doesn't matter if it was for all the wrong reasons, it's still a simple fact. And MC is the Xbox icon. All Xbox hopes ride on him. Plain and simple. Jak has to work at it to earn it, just like the Marios and Sonics of this world, and he has another decade until he can be respectable. Until then he's another Crash in the making.

"Try to be consistent."

My diarrhea is none of your concern at this point in time.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

Time to get caught up.

- Either Aya's match against DK was a total fluke, or she's even more underestimated than Tidus. I can honestly see her beating someone like Scorpion. Sonic/Terry may tell all about it.

- I expect DK to be the bracket favorite. Knuckles is a mere Sonic side-character, although a beloved one. DK is a LEGEND. Oh, and favorite FF villains polls are much closer between FF6 and FF7 than favorite FF GAMES. That may account for something.

- Jak 2 is a GTA rip-off, just like Driver. ;) Kidding, guys. I just put that one for laughs.

- How can Kefka be the underdog against Pac-Man one year, and be favored over Knux the next? I just... don't get it.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

heh
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

"DK is a LEGEND."

A legendary loser, you mean.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

- How can Kefka be the underdog against Pac-Man one year, and be favored over Knux the next? I just... don't get it.

The same reaason DK is going to be the favorite over Vivi this year. Pac-Man is a legend. Knuckles is the third most popular Sonic character.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

- How can Kefka be the underdog against Pac-Man one year, and be favored over Knux the next? I just... don't get it.

The contest is getting easier, and paired with the lower voter turnouts and an odd poll starting time, bracket voting is putting a huge dent into the stats. For that reason and that reason only, Link has a chance to beat Cloud.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Jak II actually does use a lot of GTA elements, but it's not exclusive to it. They borrowed ideas from a lot of popular games.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

Just because Jak has only put out 2 games does not mean that he isn't recognized and isn't a popular character. Don't completely blow off Jak's popularity because he's only had 2 games and is just starting to take off.

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He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.
*Printable SC2K4 Bracket!* (See quote for link)

Until then he's another Crash in the making.

Oh, he will be. I don't doubt that. But he is at a better stage in his "career" right now than Crash is. He's nearing the spot where Crash was way back when.

But I also don't believe there will be any more Mario's in the world of gaming. To be able to start a franchise and keep sequels going for 20 years is going to be nearly impossible now, especially with 3 consoles instead of 1.
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Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

I'd love to be a loser if that means standing in the upper midpack.
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SC2K4 Status - Points: 015/015 - Matches: 15/15 - Rank: 00001/33221 - Today: Snake - Tomorrow: Cloud

You mean like Link?
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Don't completely blow off Jak's popularity because he's only had 2 games and is just starting to take off.

Just starting to take off? If anything, he's begun his decline. No one plays Playstation-exclusive platformers (Crash, Tomb Raider, Jak and Dexter, Ratchet and Clank) anymore.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

He's still a platformer. He can't shake the stigma that follows... do you really think he can escape a destiny no other platformer ever has? Yes, they can do fairly well when they are new and hot, but they aren't even worth your breath until the series they are in has been around for a generation or two.
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True love is a fairy tale. I'm damaged, so how would I know? - Plummet: Damaged

For the record, it's Jak and Daxter, not Dexter.

Why do I even let you people live?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Championship
First round: (13)Bomberman

I still don't think bracket voting is a big factor. Sure, brackets make up roughly 1/2 to 1/3 the total polls, but how many people vote with their bracket against their favorite character? I don't think we can come up with an adequate answer for that, so until we see some proof otherwise, I'm going to continue consider bracket voting a near nonfactor.
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Current Pick: Snake; Current Vote: Snake; Points: 15/15
Supporter of Frog, Magus, Mega Man, Vivi, and Kefka!

None of the Playstation platformers will be considered great in two generations. Only Mario will ever keep his status.
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

Jak sucks so bad that my own line is being used against me.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

...or is it?
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

Maybe Sonic if he can dig himself out of the hole that is Sonic Heroes.
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Summer Contest Match 16 Solid Snake vs. Tanner
Status 15/16 Points: 015 Next: Cloud Strife vs. Duke Nukem

Since there are next to no posts left anyway, is there an AIM chat Ulti?
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The topic is dead. Not the kind of dead that can be cured with a Phoenix Down. I'm talking FMV sequence dead.- The King in Teal

I wouldn't count on Sonic doing much this year. People are talking about Ryu beating him.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

That they are.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*

- Jak 2 is a GTA rip-off, just like Driver. ;) Kidding, guys. I just put that one for laughs.

You almost had me there for a sec :)
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Contest status: 14/15 points. Currently anticipating: Ness vs. Jak