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Contest Stats & Discussion - Part 21
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:35:57 AM | Message Detail
I just checked it out (sclegacy, I mean) and here's what they're saying:

Thursday: Starcraft vs Super Smash Bros Melee @ GameFAQs.com. Be there!

Do you hate AOL? Good: go vote for Chrono Trigger at GameFAQs.com.

With appropriate links.


AAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! XDXDXD ecks dee ecks dee! Holy ****ing hell, that`s priceless! I`ve always had a special place for Starcraft fans, but this is flat-out hilarious.

I suppose the AOL connection comes from the "65% of AOL fans vote for Zelda" according to CJayC, hence SC fans are still gloating about their victory over WW and want to rub it into LttP.

If this is true, then it will teach CJayC not to say stupid things.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:45:18 AM | Message Detail
Should SSBM and/or Chrono Trigger lose their last matches, let me get my 'I told you so' comments in here and now.

How many people shot me down when I said that Metal Gear Solid can and would kill Goldeneye in a poll? Well, I told you so.

Who is the guy that said that OOT had little to no chance to win this match, that it was the most overhyped match ever, and that the 7000 vote gap between FF7`s poll and OOT`s poll was the end of OOT? That would be me, and I was laughed at.

Who`s that in the corner? Who`s that in the spotlight, losing his religion? I think he`s said too much, or he hasn`t said enough...
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:05:30 AM | Message Detail
Speaking of stats, whatever happened to the guru standings?
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:08:06 AM | Message Detail
Ngamer has them.
---
Points in the SpC2K4: 97/112
Next pick: Final Fantasy VII
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:08:48 AM | Message Detail
I`m aware of that, but he hasn`t updated them in awhile. I still only have 77 points on his page.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:10:10 AM | Message Detail
He is probably busy.
---
Points in the SpC2K4: 97/112
Next pick: Final Fantasy VII
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:10:01 AM | Message Detail
I forgot to post a FFX vs. SSBM record so I'll post it here with the CT vs. Lttp

All Time Records

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84.60% - Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 83.68% - Mega Man vs. Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 82.70% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77.92% - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76.84% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 75.42% - Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 75.28% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 74.08% - Legend of Zelda vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84196 - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 80505 - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 79918 - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77511 - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 74682 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 73838 - Crono vs. Tom Nook (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 70809 - Sephiroth vs. Max Payne (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.04% - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
1) 0.04% - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 0.14% - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 0.20% - Starcraft vs. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (III) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 0.22% - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 0.34% - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 0.36% - Chrono Trigger vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (IV) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 0.60% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 34 - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 38 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 115 - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 137 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 143 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 171 - Starcraft vs. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (III) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 277 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 362 - Chrono Trigger vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (IV) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 373 - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 650 - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 147637 - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 133005 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 129703 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 124443 - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 124192 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 123587 - Sephiroth vs. Mario (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 118961 - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 116190 - Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 115738 - Ganondorf vs. Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 113881 - Zelda vs. Lara Croft (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:11:37 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 50816 - Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 51889 - Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 52419 - Bomberman vs. Kane (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 52618 - Donkey Kong vs. Bub (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 52874 - Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 53213 - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 53920 - Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 54997 - Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 55392 - Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 56361 - Tina Armstrong vs. Gordon Freeman (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 94086 - Cloud Strife (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 92998 - Link (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 92894 - Legend of Zelda (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
4) 91905 - Mega Man (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 90364 - Sephiroth (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 89595 - Sephiroth (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 89189 - Mario (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 88469 - Crono (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 86938 - Final Fantasy (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 5257 - Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 5414 - Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 8602 - Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 8802 - AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 9559 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 11076 - Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 11145 - CATS (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 11292 - Pitfall Harry (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 71438 - Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 66434 - Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 64713 - Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 59865 - Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 57078 - Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 56258 - Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 55322 - Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 54529 - Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 53716 - Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 50457 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 30662 - Strider Hiryu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 30711 - Pikachu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 31160 - Kyo Kusanagi (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 31798 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 32301 - Serious Sam (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 32602 - Donkey Kong (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 32607 - Pac-Man (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 33160 - Duke Nukem (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 33516 - Alucard (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 33602 - Sonic the Hedgehog (II) from 2002 Summer Contest

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 93/112 FF VII vs. LoZ: OoT
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:12:37 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 99.1% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 99.02% - The Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 98.0% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 97.75% - Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 96.76% - Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden II (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 96.46% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 96.4% - Link vs. Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 96.32% - The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Fallout 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 95.91% - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 95.9% - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) 6.0% - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 7.91% - Starcraft vs. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (III) from 2004 Spring Contest
3) 12.8% - Link vs. Mario (VI) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 13.4% - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 14.18% - Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Final Fantasy X (III) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 14.5% - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 14.6% - Crono vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 15.62% - Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 17.3% - Scorpion vs. Pac-Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 21.7% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 93/112 FF VII vs. LoZ: OoT
From: Skularis | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:22:24 AM | Message Detail
Good job for seeing this coming Ulti. I had I feeling in the back of my mind that this wouldn't even be close, but I didn't want to believe it. So anti-climatic :(

But hey, what ya gonna do? FF7 is a great game, albeit a bit overrated. I can't say that it doesn't deserve the title. I just wish this match was a bit closer.

Now I can prepare to root for Starcraft tomorrow :)
---
Go back home to Final Fantasy buddy, you might get hurt out here. -Tinek Arukena
Spring Contest Score = STARCRAFT'D
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:29:19 AM | Message Detail
Dear God, this is monstruous. I never expected that in a hundred years. FF7 has this tournament won, no doubt about that.

About Ulti winning: we don't know, maybe the two that are tied with him picked the wrong 128 winner, or SMB3 in the first semifinal.

So WHO would have been better off with LoZ vs. LttP in his bracket now, Ulti? ;)
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 097/112 --- Matches: 50/58 --- Rank: 00301/40940 --- Today's pick: FF7
From: smitelf | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:52:37 AM | Message Detail
The winner of the tournament is FFVII. Let's just end the contest now. Seriously, this is disgusting. FFVII owns this site.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 95/104, Next Winner: Final Fantasy VII
From: smitelf | Posted: 6/2/2004 6:56:15 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and anyone who thinks Starcraft had a chance against THIS should be laughed at immediately.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 94/112, Next Winner: Final Fantasy VII
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/2/2004 7:40:41 AM | Message Detail
Quote of the day goes to Chucat!

The damn match was more overrated than both games could ever hope to be.

Way to sum it up.

I'll do the CT/LttP graphs later today. Should be loads of fun looking at them.

EXTRAPOLATED RANKINGS FOR DIVISION 16

01. 50.00% - (1) Chrono Trigger [0]
02. 49.82% - (6) Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past [+4]
03. 47.17% - (2) Final Fantasy 6 [-1]
04. 40.99% - (4) Super Mario World [0]
05. 32.94% - (8) Super Mario RPG [+3]
06. 28.83% - (9) Street Fighter 2 [+3]
07. 25.91% - (3) Super Metroid [-4]
08. 25.74% - (10) Doom [+2]
09. 25.40% - (15) Mortal Kombat [+6]
10. 24.13% - (5) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 [-5]
11. 22.11% - (7) Earthbound [-4]
12. 20.61% - (16) Secret of Mana [+4]
13. 15.19% - (13) The Simpsons [0]
14. 09.30% - (12) Shining Force [-2]
15. 08.82% - (11) Gunstar Heroes [-4]
16. 08.66% - (14) Phantasy Star 4 [-2]

Super Metroid is the only real anomaly here, I think it belongs in 4th or 5th. PS4 as well... should probably be 14th, close enough to the Simpsons. Unless SMB3 beats CT with 77%, PS > PS4. If this isn't a sign of SFF for LttP/SM, I don't know what is.

And of course, Sonic 2 looks horribly out of place. Ewwwww.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 097/112 --- Matches: 50/58 --- Rank: 00301/40940 --- Today's pick: FF7
From: Haste2 | Posted: 6/2/2004 9:45:39 AM | Message Detail
That whole Phantasy Star issue really is awkward. PS1 overperformed, perhaps? Maybe it's great at attracting votes against unpopular/obscure games. I just couldn't see Phantasy Star truly being more popular than Metal Gear, even on GameFAQs.

UltimaterializerX, you ignored me when I tried to respond to you about...that...

1. I was the first to introduce the extrapolated standings with the formula that is currently used (multiplying percentages).

2. Slowflake probably would've used creativename's ratio-based rankings system in this topic if it wasn't for creativename finally proving the method of multiplying percentages to be correct. (kudos to CN)

So don't go thinking Slowflake did all the work. I'm not telling you to give me any credit, either, since I don't really care. I'm just a little ticked that you'd give someone else credit for just plugging in some numbers.

Nothing against you, Slowflake.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: redline15 | Posted: 6/2/2004 9:47:10 AM | Message Detail
i will never be happier to see ff7 win a poll.

a shame it had to win so convincingly, however.
this isn't exactly a blowout...but after yesterday it feels like we have all been swindled.
perhaps the afternoon will make things more interesting...but an actual turnaround seems impossible, now...

So WHO would have been better off with LoZ vs. LttP in his bracket now, Ulti? ;)

heh...i had forgotten about this.
ulti scolded everyone in the topic for keeping him from picking an all-zelda final four...and it just might have won him the contest.

the moral of the story: never make your own decisions.
---
signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.
From: smitelf | Posted: 6/2/2004 9:50:44 AM | Message Detail
the moral of the story: never make your own decisions.

Yeees, maaaster...
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 94/112, Next Winner: Final Fantasy VII
From: Tarrot | Posted: 6/2/2004 10:07:23 AM | Message Detail
Oh bloody hell I'm calling this. Not even starcraft could come back from this lead. And there are still 14 hours left. And now, a recreation of Heroic Mario during this match, in EST.

4:00: It's just down by 400. It's still good, it's still good.
5:00: It's just down by 600. It's still good, it's still good.

1:00 PM: It's just down by 3000. It's still good, it's still good.
Friend: It's gone.
HM: I know
From: smitelf | Posted: 6/2/2004 10:11:27 AM | Message Detail
I hate people who think Starcraft can beat Final Fantasy VII. I keep telling them why it won't happen and they keep talking about the Koreans. Why, why can't they understand the fact that FFVII >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> WW in terms of popularity on this site? I hate them all.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 94/112, Next Winner: Final Fantasy VII
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 10:28:03 AM | Message Detail
Damn it, damn it, damn it...
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda
From: steve illumina | Posted: 6/2/2004 11:41:37 AM | Message Detail
So who loved my StarCraft/SSBM commentary today bashing the Starcraft bandwagon fanboys? :)

Ulti, I hope you pull it out, then I can say 'Well, at least I sort of know the winner...and it aint me!'

FF7 exceeding my expectations too...a Chrono vs FFVII final is headed our way. I am ready to wrap this up too, smitelf. Bring on the summer.

---
SCK24: 92/112 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/2/2004 12:06:16 PM | Message Detail
*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #60 - (16) STARCRAFT vs. (2) SUPER SMASH BROS. MELEE ***

Sales

SSBM sold what, 3 million? As much as Wind Waker, and less than Halo and KH? Well, that one's easy.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Franchises

*looks at the SSBM roster*

Ummm... duh?

- Advantage SSBM.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: SSBM
Number of reviews: Starcraft*
Average review score: SSBM
Board activity: SSBM

*Obtained by combining Starcraft and Brood War: SSBM beats both individually.

SSBM has a solid advantage in the FAQs, triples both SC boards combined, and has slightly better reviews. Yet again, it's not hard to declare a winner.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 20
Starcraft - 1
Also picked: Final Fantasy 10 (40), Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (23), Metroid Prime (9), Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (4), Halo: Combat Evolved (2), Kingdom Hearts (1), Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (1), Fire Emblem (1)

POINT VALUE
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 608
28. Starcraft - 81

This is the only match in the contest where the favorite had under half of the picks (yes, more than half picked FF7 to win it all). This is also the match that has the most different entries picked at least once, with 10 (the final match has 9).

Interesting fact... SSBM's point value is lower than WW. Not that it means anything, Starcraft is 9th in the division in point value (Halo is 8th, KH is 5th, WW is 2nd, SSBM is 3rd). But SSBM still beats the crap out of it, and Starcraft loses this category for the fourth time in four matches.

- Advantage SSBM.

Previous Rounds

Before going into the match against Starcraft, Wind Waker was the strongest game left in the division (read: least disappointing). It came off a good win against Metroid Prime, a big favorite among Nintendo fans. It seemed to be in excellent position to utterly destroy Starcraft and defeat its following opponent.

Twenty-four hours later, it was gone.

Compare that with a ho-hum win over MGS2 (which turned out to be a strong opponent regardless), a relatively close bout with Vice City and an even closer one with a very disappointing FF10.

Sure, SSBM had the odds stacked against it, and it overcame them much like Starcraft did... but the latter did so with that much more pizazz.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

No data whatsoever on Starcraft, and the 2001 GOTY poll proved to be total junk to gauge SSBM, as it has beaten two games it should've lost badly to according to it.

- UNAVAILABLE.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 097/112 --- Matches: 50/58 --- Rank: 00301/40940 --- Today's pick: FF7
From: Slowflake | Posted: 6/2/2004 12:06:42 PM | Message Detail
Intangibles

See, that's why I didn't want these two games to clash. They just cannot be beaten in this category, and between these two it's really hard to decide.

SSBM has this huge roster of 23 of the best characters Nintendo has ever churned out, as well as Pichu and Pikachu. It aged in a way that's never been seen since SMB3 (see the comment about the 2001 GOTY poll above). That's what's going in favor of SSBM.

Now, Starcraft. It's got Battle.net. If it wasn't for it, Wind Waker would've been laying the smackdown on Halo last round. But no. The power of the Starcraft Internet community outside of GameFAQs allowed a PC game to beat a Zelda game. On GameFAQs. And it takes ungodly power to take out anything Zelda here, even if it's Wind Waker, commonly seen as the "bastard child" of the series.

But, there's still really really bad news for Starcraft. The Halo and KH polls took place on weekdays, and Starcraft won them with margins that would not allow it to even come close to Wind Waker. Enter the WW match on a Saturday, where B.net traffic is doubled compared to weekdays. That means, in theory, that the spamming is twice as effective, and the huge step up from Halo and KH can be climbed. That's the very plausible theory that's floating around to explain Wind Waker's surprise loss. So effectively, WW has been killed by the calendar. There have been four delays so far, and had they not happened, WW may still have been alive today.

Now we're back to a Thursday poll, and Starcraft looks much more vulnerable because of that if you buy into that theory. Others think Starcraft has enough power to overcome a deficit of 10000-20000 votes, which is just crazy IMO.

Now, the board still seems to be on the side of Starcraft, although the people that are tired of it are getting more and more vocal.

Granted, SSBM's online community is more developed than for a lot of other games, but it doesn't even come close in numbers and unity as Starcraft, which is why I'm giving the nod to the latter here. That, and awareness for the contest grew tenfold among the Starcraft community with the Wind Waker match and its aftermath. SCLegacy.com posting a huge article about it on its front page should be an indication.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Conclusion: Will mass characters stop mass carriers? That's a tough one. SSBM looks like a logical favorite, but much like with WW, many believe in Starcraft's chances. A 16-seed winning its division... I wonder if CJayC would get the message to bring back the "free" nomination system.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 097/112 --- Matches: 50/58 --- Rank: 00301/40940 --- Today's pick: FF7
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/2/2004 12:58:42 PM | Message Detail
I'm just a little ticked that you'd give someone else credit for just plugging in some numbers. [Haste2]

See, now I feel like ****. I am deeply sorry, and to be completely honest, I thought it was Diamond Soul X who originally came up with the formula.

Speaking of which, what IS the formula? I see these numbersm and have yet to see how they are dervied. And whether you want me to give you credit or not, it shall be done. So there =p

Sooooo Slowflake, if you feel like being a good chap and coming up with extrapolated standings come the end of the contest by using Haste2`s method, and if the two of you decide to throw me some love and let me use them, I would be much obliged.

I`m getting a rough idea of what I want the posts to look like. Rate it thusfar:

Division 8 Round 1: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 vs (16)Metal Gear

Super Mario Brothers 3 - 61359 (82.3%)
Metal Gear - 13197 (17.7%)
Total Votes - 74556
Prediction Percentage - 86.56%
Average Prophet Challenge Prediction for Super Mario Brothers 3 - [coming later]
Average Prophet Challenge Prediction for Metal Gear - [coming later]
Average Picture Rating - 6.62

Extrapolated Standings

Super Mario Brothers 3 - (#?, xx.xx%)
Metal Gear - (#?, xx.xx%)

[insert the analysis]

And in the very beginning of the topic, as well as within it, proper credits will be given all over the place.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 6/2/2004 1:00:55 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of getting help, is there a creativename in the house?

Is it okay if I post the sc2k4.com link within the topic?
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Haste2 | Posted: 6/2/2004 1:56:21 PM | Message Detail
Don't sweat it, Ulti.

DSX's method...I'm not sure, but I think that was simply multiplying the ratios of each game (creativename's system was much more complicated). For instance, To get Sonic's strength for Summer 2003 you would multiply 33.79% and 66.21%. It was used merely to rank the games, rather than estimate the percentage each would get on the champion.

Looks like you'll have some good stuff on your site. By the time I ever feel motivated to make a site on GameFAQs contest stuff there will be nothing left for me to do!

So, what's to talk about in the contest now? Not much, I guess. About all that's worth talking about now is SSBM vs. Starcraft. I could see SSBM being stronger than Zelda:WW, especially after it took out FFX, the game most favored to win its division. If SSBM can manage a 55% lead on SC by early afternoon, I don't think even BattleNet can make that up...

Random thought: Will there ever be a 50/50 match for the final?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: andaca | Posted: 6/2/2004 2:18:57 PM | Message Detail
I half want starcraft to win tomorrow, just so that it can prove its strength against final fantasy. I think it could make a showing near 40 percent since it would be a saturday match. I would be rooting for SSBM, but since FF7 has officially slain my bracket....(go CT!)
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96 points.
FF7 vs OoT
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 6/2/2004 2:22:19 PM | Message Detail
I half want starcraft to win too, that way it can beat FF7. but that's just me being bitter about today, though I wish it were closer than this...

in other news, I made the leaderboard today! yay!
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: Phediuk | Posted: 6/2/2004 2:31:26 PM | Message Detail
This contest is over. FFVII wins.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: armitage999 | Posted: 6/2/2004 2:39:08 PM | Message Detail
I'm starting to agree.. It's going to take something amazing to knock off FFVII(ugh, I liked the game a lot and all.. but FFIV and FFVI are better, darn it!). I'm already looking to the Summer Contest, and I'm thinking at least three #1 seeds are locked up:

Sephiroth, Cloud, and Crono.

If Mario can defeat CT in two days, I think Mario has a good shot at getting the 4th and final #1 seed. I don't think Link has the 4th #1 seed locked up anymore, really, but still should be a real strong #2 seed.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 6/2/2004 2:46:42 PM | Message Detail
The only contestant that I can see beating FFVII is Starcraft, and not because its actually stronger, but because it could rally the votes needed, so, in all fairness, I guess that is strength. Today was pretty disappointing for my bracket, and I think this shows that Chrono Trigger, Mario 3, or SSBM couldn't beat FFVII. I mean if Nintendo's best representative (?) couldn't beat it, that knocks out Mario 3 or SSBM, and Chrono barely beat LttP, so odds are it isn't going to beat FFVII. Starcraft though, could benefit from the imaginary LoZ revenge voters, it would be nice if that was true, plus I'm sure that match would get spammed to hell and beyond on SC sites. SC winning would be a mess, but it would be a funny mess, and would suit the bitter feelings I have currently towards FFVII. or at least the bitter feelings towards it winning, not the game itself.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 3:29:51 PM | Message Detail
Well now I am at a loss for words completely. I have never seen a game like Final Fantasy VII just run through and completely dominate everything like this. Last night I had put some faith into the day vote giving Ocarina of Time quite the jump and making this a much closer match, however, as it turns out FFVII just friggin took up every possible timeframe vote there is to take up. There just isn`t any stopping a game that can overtake your best timeframe vote. With SMB3 and CT left to fight up for the finals it looks like FFVII has a clear, easy, path right into the finals and not to mention an easy win against whoever decides to take it on. That is some serious strength, downright crazy. It`ll be interesting to see tomorrow and find out if battle.NET is going to keep StarCraft (*grumble*) going. I, for one, would like it to this match for two reasons. One I hate to see it keep going and people give even a decent chance at stopping FFVII and two, the biggest reason, to see Ulti win the contest. =D I mean if I can`t win it it`d be awesome to see him do it considering he has a perfectly setup bracket to do so.

Turns out the all-Zelda final four everyone was talking about is going to end up with a no-Zelda final four. Not one. That makes me mad that not even one can manage to represent the series in the final four. *sigh* Oh well. But now I`d wonder with FFVII winning the contest this year do you think that would increase the number of people who would put Cloud/Sephiroth as their winner
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 6/2/2004 3:50:15 PM | Message Detail
I'ld say definitely heroic mario, because I mean, that's who it looks like is going to win this year, I mean if the game can win, you'ld think the character could too. It just makes you wonder what completely changed the shift from Mario and Link to Cloud and Seph. I mean you could say KH, but Seph/Mario wasn't even that close this year, right? It makes me sad to see Ocarina losing, but hey, this is a popularity poll, so its not like it makes either game better or worse. For the summer contest though, I hope it doesn't follow the spring contest trends, just to make it more exciting.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:10:28 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. I would imagine that even more people would be likely to put Cloud and Sephiroth as their winner considering the results of last year and now today`s results. All I`m going for now is that I see Super Mario Bros. 3 in the finals against Final Fantasy VII.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
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From: creativename | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:45:19 PM | Message Detail
I almost want Starcraft to beat SSBM, just to see it get completely PWNed by Final Fantasy VII. I would love to see the faces of these Starcraft fanboys after that. Though, the noise the board would make after that would be insane--the most hated game on the boards PWNing the most supported game? It would be WHINING OVERWHELMING!

Though SSBM winning would help Ulti's chances of victory a lot. Good luck to Ulti on that. But, SSBM winning might not actually be necessary, since his competition might not have picked it. The most important thing right now is Chrono Trigger vs. SMB3.

And if Ulti does end up winning, he'd better give the board a big thank you, because obviously there's no way he would've approached the final leaderboard without the "bad advice" of the board ;) I'm guessing them being the clear choices according to Slowflake's BOP played a big role in you going with SMB3 and Chrono Trigger, Ulti. Am I correct or wrong? :)


Note that scores for this contest should easily surpass what we have seen before, simply because the clear favorite will win. That's 32 points for a huge number of the brackets. As you could see from here:

http://www.sc2k4.com/score_distributions.php

Link failing to win 2K3 really hurt scores for that contest; if Link had won 2K3, scores would've been through the roof.


Haste2:
So, what's to talk about in the contest now? Not much, I guess. About all that's worth talking about now is SSBM vs. Starcraft.

Chrono Trigger vs. SMB3 is not easy to call. I'd say Chrono Trigger was the favorite but not a big one. Even though 50% against A Link to the Past is probably more impressive than 57% (possibly SFF influenced 57%, at that) against The Legend of Zelda, it still isn't obvious who will win; and that's not taking into account the cheat factor for Mario.

Ulti:
Is it okay if I post the sc2k4.com link within the topic?

Well, of course :o) You don't exactly have to ask my permission to give my site publicity ;)

armitage:
If Mario can defeat CT in two days, I think Mario has a good shot at getting the 4th and final #1 seed. I don't think Link has the 4th #1 seed locked up anymore, really, but still should be a real strong #2 seed.

Link is clearly a #1 seed. How the hell would Mario be a 1 seed ahead of him?
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Nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for the Summer 2004 Character Contest!
http://SC2k4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: armitage999 | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:48:08 PM | Message Detail
armitage:
If Mario can defeat CT in two days, I think Mario has a good shot at getting the 4th and final #1 seed. I don't think Link has the 4th #1 seed locked up anymore, really, but still should be a real strong #2 seed.

Link is clearly a #1 seed. How the hell would Mario be a 1 seed ahead of him?


I just think momentum would have a little bit to do with seedings. Link doesn't have much after all four of the Zelda games in the contest get knocked out. He locks it up I think if ONE makes it. Mario could get the #1 seed if SMB3 does knock off CT. If not, then it'll be close.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:48:31 PM | Message Detail
and that's not taking into account the cheat factor for Mario.

Heh. Funny.

And I can imagine your happy about today creative? =) Seeing as how your favorite game will win.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
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From: smitelf | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:51:49 PM | Message Detail
I almost want Starcraft to beat SSBM, just to see it get completely PWNed by Final Fantasy VII.

Yeah, I really want Starcraft to win its next match and get killed against FFVII just to shut up the idiots (yes, that's right, I-D-I-O-T-S) who think Starcraft has even the smallest, infinitesimal chance of beating Final Fantasy VII. I like Starcraft better than FFVII but I may well vote for the latter just to contribute to the raping so I can laugh even harder at the morons who have called me a FFVII fanboy today for saying Starcraft has no chance to survive.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 94/112, Next Winner: Final Fantasy VII
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:52:53 PM | Message Detail
Mario could get the #1 seed if SMB3 does knock off CT. If not, then it'll be close.

This is in relation to the character contest right? If so then Mario won`t be getting the #1 seed. Why? Link has been stronger than he has every year. The game contest hasn`t been nice to Zelda games at all but it has always been very nice to Link. He will get a #1 seed no matter what.

Mario would get a #1 seed if it weren`t for the brackets being in that "Division by Company" bracket.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
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From: creativename | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:54:10 PM | Message Detail
armitage:
I just think momentum would have a little bit to do with seedings. Link doesn't have much after all four of the Zelda games in the contest get knocked out. He locks it up I think if ONE makes it. Mario could get the #1 seed if SMB3 does knock off CT. If not, then it'll be close.

The momentum doesn't matter, he's still Link. It's almost inconceivable that Mario could somehow magically approach his level. The game contest isn't all that related to the character contest anyway.

Heroic Mario:
And I can imagine your happy about today creative? =) Seeing as how your favorite game will win.

Yes, but Ocarina of Time is awesome too. It would've been better if the championship match was, you know, the championship match ;)

I'm very concerned for Chrono Trigger though. I almost wish A Link to the Past had won, because I'd have more faith in A Link to the Past beating SMB3, and then we'd have a Nintendo vs. Square final, rather than Square vs. Square like with Chrono Trigger vs. Final Fantasy VII. Chrono Trigger vs. Final Fantasy VII is definitely a worthy final, but as well all know Square vs. Nintendo matches are the best.
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Nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for the Summer 2004 Character Contest!
http://SC2k4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:54:15 PM | Message Detail
I`d gladly like to join in on the deal of StarCraft getting royally owned by FFVII to silence its fans.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Sevendust PWNED me with his superior prophet skills.
From: tnote827 | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:55:01 PM | Message Detail
Yawn... I hate hype. I knew as soon as FFVII whipped MGS this match would never be close. Tomorrow's match is a real doozy, and the first one in which I cannot have the winner =( And with this, time for another Tnotez Take:

Saved my account with FFVII comfortably defeating OoT (barring ridiculously unforseen actions in the next 7 hours). Also finished off my perfect top three brackets. Damn Division 128... For tomorrow, my heart is with SSBM, because if it wins I strongly feel Ulti will be taking home ten free games. However, my head says those damn spamming Koreans will be too much for SSBM. It has not won in comfortable fashion yet, and in a close match, I do not think Starcraft can be beaten. As such...

GunPoint Prediction: Starcraft with 50.03%

Neither game will gather over 51%. At least that is my feelings. SSBM will not win by more because BNet will not let it win by more. Starcraft will not win by more because IT IS NOT THE BETTER GAME.

Random Thoughts: The hell is a game 5+ years old doing in the 128 bit division? How many of us pulled off predicting perfectly the top three brackets? At least a couple hundred, no? Why is white meat more mauve than white? And who hear agrees with me that SMB3 is going to defeat CT 50.05%-49.95% on account of hundreds of extra votes after 24 hours passes?
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Contest: 107/120; Division 128 absolutely pwned me... Perfect Divisions 8, 16 & 32 & 64!
From: smitelf | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:58:22 PM | Message Detail
Starcraft will not win by more because IT IS NOT THE BETTER GAME.

Starcraft is superior to every remaining game in the tournament, therefore your statement does not compute.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 94/112, Next Winner: Final Fantasy VII
From: Zidane2486 | Posted: 6/2/2004 4:59:15 PM | Message Detail
which one is the better game is a matter of opinion..
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"My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die!"
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:00:19 PM | Message Detail
I'm very concerned for Chrono Trigger though.

Ah yeah CT vs. SMB3 is going to be a tough one to call.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Sevendust PWNED me with his superior prophet skills.
From: creativename | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:03:18 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and if I hear even one guy saying that bracket voting is the reason Final Fantasy VII beat Ocarina of Time, I'm gonna scream. I haven't heard that yet but I have the feeling I'll eventually read that somewhere outside of this topic >_>

Yeah, I really want Starcraft to win its next match and get killed against FFVII just to shut up the idiots (yes, that's right, I-D-I-O-T-S) who think Starcraft has even the smallest, infinitesimal chance of beating Final Fantasy VII.

The only chance it has is if a dozen different Staracraft fanboys all decide to make voting scripts. Vote rallying can only get you so far. Let's be conservative and say that Final Fantasy VII would win with 60% normally, on 85,000 votes. So 17,000 votes need to be made up. You can get a few thousand from rallying, but not nearly that much. A cheater could possibly get maybe 2 votes per minute using a dial-up, so 2*60*24=1,442 votes in 24 hours. Assuming vote rallying gets a few thousand votes, you'd need about 10 cheaters (or 1 cheater with 10 phone lines/computers) to get Starcraft even with Final Fantasy VII.

HIGHLY unlikely, as we've never seen even a sniff of anything on that scale happening. I wouldn't say it was impossible, because frankly you never know with Starcraft lunatics. But it would be well beyond what we've seen from Starcraft so far.

Like I said, if Starcraft manages so much as 44% against Final Fantasy VII I will be sick to my stomach, because such a result would be tainted with the filth of darkness :o(
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Nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for the Summer 2004 Character Contest!
http://SC2k4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: creativename | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:07:00 PM | Message Detail
if it wins I strongly feel Ulti will be taking home ten free games.

Maybe we should all be rooting against him winning, because playing those games will take up all of his free time for months on end and he won't post as much anymore ;)
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Nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for the Summer 2004 Character Contest!
http://SC2k4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:07:49 PM | Message Detail
Like I said, if Starcraft manages so much as 44% against Final Fantasy VII I will be sick to my stomach, because such a result would be tainted with the filth of darkness :o(

I`m right with you on that one creative.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Sevendust PWNED me with his superior prophet skills.
From: tnote827 | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:12:23 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: tnote827 | Posted: 6/2/2004 5:13:49 PM | Message Detail
True dat creative; and 2*60*24 = 2,880, but who's counting =)

Smiteelf = SSBM is the better game. Really, I do not think is even debatable. But since everything is a debate on this board, I will conceed that you feel Starcraft is the best remaining game, and that is fine. The winner tomorrow will prove NOTHING as to which game is better; rather it will only prove which is more popular. In five years when Starcraft will not even run on my PC because the game is too primitive, I will chuckle, and then go dust off the Gamecube, unplug my Playstation6 and chuckle as Link whips Mario once more for ole time's sake.
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Contest: 107/120; Division 128 absolutely pwned me... Perfect Divisions 8, 16 & 32 & 64!
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