There's one other possibility, too. Even more spamming.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/088 --- Matches: 48/54 --- Rank: 00197/40940 --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

Oh, and this might be the first occassion where you can say with some confidence that the poll positioning had an impact. If the layout hadn't changed, there is a chance that Wind Waker would've had a better chance at winning, since the impact vote stuffing would be diluted.

Others have mentioned many times the idea that the poll position also makes things slightly more biased towards hardcore gamers. There isn't really any evidence for that but it might also have a made a difference here.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

International support is the only voting factor that makes sense to me right about now. The Boards? Feh.

I hope SC makes it to the final four at least.
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Get me outta here, boyo.

Vote-stuffing? I really think that's more Koreans and B.netters. Though I do agree, really. 200 votes is nothing WW wouldn't have made up with the old layout, considering no Koreans that came here abstained because of the positioning.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/088 --- Matches: 48/54 --- Rank: 00197/40940 --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

I actually had Starcraft winning this division in my bracket when I first made it (against Melee in the division finals), but I was too cowardly to keep it there. Big T_T for me.

LordOfDabu
A legend beyond all ages.

Oh dear God, WW isn't exactly rolling over and dying. If it pulls THAT off...

NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/088 --- Matches: 48/54 --- Rank: 00197/40940 --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

It's too slow though. It only has about 12+ minutes.
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Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

Yeah, you're right. Normally Link > Mario, but when it comes to clutch boosts, we all know who's the king.

On to another subject entirely... if SSBM takes the lead right off the bat, the match is over. Agree or disagree?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/088 --- Matches: 48/54 --- Rank: 00197/40940 --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

As small as the leads are, and the vote total being high as it is right now, increased voting from other countries like Korea changing the tide isn't so impossible. Just really unexpected. I'm surprised, to be sure.

Normally we wouldn't even notice such a small factor, but this is obviously an exception. People from outside the western hemisphere are finally making their presence known. Obviously most of the East could care less that this contest even exists.
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Get me outta here, boyo.

If the Wind Waker comeback had gone anywhere, I would've shouted "No more minerals = eventual win".

Alas, it looks like it is not to be.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

And it's now practically official, and I've had time to warm up, so to all predicting and hoping for an All-Zelda Final Four, this heartfelt message is for you.

na na naa naaaaa
Na Na Naa Naaaaa
HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEEEEY
GOOD BYE!

na na naa naaaaa
Na Na Naa Naaaaa
HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAEEEEEEEEEEY
GOOD BYE!

Looks like Wind Waker lost... officially.

In other news SSBM is out to a nice lead that I think should hold for the entire match.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Final Fantasy X might be weaker than Vice City?

WHAT THE ****!?!

This is very depressing.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Not only Vice, but if the morning vote favors SSBM as much as it did in the other matches... MGS2 as well.

Wow, two losses in a row. Never happened to me before. Well, I'm out of this contest.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/092 --- Matches: 48/55 --- Rank: 00274/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10

There IS a reason Yuna lost to Knuckles in the Summer contest. My guess is that FFX-2 has also had an adverse effect on FFX's popularity. Still if there's anything the previous match should have taught us, it's that it's not over till the match is over or someone gets 4 thousand votes, whichever happens first.
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Theifenburg Uncertainty Principle - Without any witnesses, who's to say what happened?
Proud warrior of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY

And 7.91% of the people predicted SC to make it this far. Under my 10% prediction, but in line with my theory on how those who had SC advancing this far would have it beating WW.

And with that, StarCraft has officially become the Squall of this contest.

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The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

Crazy stuff that the two games most expected to get to the division final are going to be out of it this round. That completely takes me out of this contest. This 128 division is insane.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Yeah, what do I know, only 21 of the 102 BOP brackets have SSBM (20) or Starcraft (1) winning the division. FF10 has 40, WW has 23.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/092 --- Matches: 48/55 --- Rank: 00274/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10

For the previous match I had SC losing to MP, I thought Metroid would get its best shot in Division 128, heh.

Guess the Zelda support was too good for Metroid but not enough to push WW over SC...
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Supporting Super Smash Brothers Melee for the 2004 Spring Contest going ALL THE WAY.
It's tankalicous, like DK.

The last perfect bracket has been pwned. Lasted longer than just about any of us would've said before the contest.

Looks like a Zelda game and a Final Fantasy game will lose back-to-back. Who would've thunk it?

And I would say that Starcraft has been a lot more surprising, and more successful, than Squall.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

how bout both?

I had melee, but it didn't exactly win yet...
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb

SSBM just might take the division now.

Also, the leaderboard has taken a MAJOR shakeup. One of the guys has GTA:VC taking the whole thing. XD Kinda reminds me of how there was some dude in the top 50 back in the Summer 2002 contest who had Samus winning the contest on their bracket all the way until Link finished Sephiroth off.

Gr....I always thought SW:KoTOR > FFTA.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Crazy stuff that the two games most expected to get to the division final are going to be out of it this round. That completely takes me out of this contest. This 128 division is insane.

As I've said a billion times, it's not about fanboys, it's about the better game. This is why Wind Waker had 55% against MP while LttP had 75% against SM, because people were voting more on name for LttP/SM and on gameplay for WW/MP. This is why Starcraft won, outside of battle.net, because enough people felt it was just as good, if not better then WW to keep it close.

As I've said a billion times, it's not about fanboys, it's about the better game.

Who said it was about fanboys?

And right now it looks like FFX has gained a lot of the night vote back bringing SSBM down to 51.01% and less than a 100 vote lead. I`m fully expecting SSBM to get the morning/day vote and pull away but it looks more reasonable to see FFX doing much better right now.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Look at the 8 and 16 bit divisions, and their results. In general, the voting has been done primarily on name value, explaining why LoZ had such a clear path to the division finals, and why SMB3, while not struggling, has performed below expectations. The same with the 16-bit division, although at that point name voting began to die down, especially with the CT/Marios matches. 32 bit is along the same lines, with a mixture of people voting on name value and gameplay, though I'm thinking more people voted on gameplay, especially with the OoT/Mario 64 results.

Now we get to the 128 division. Here, name value is relativly meaningless. Here, there are no games people have never heard of, Shenmue excluded, and I'd be willing to bet most of the voters have played at least half the games in this bracket, probably more. This differs from the previous divisions, where it would be much more likely some people have never played most of the games, with classics such as FFVII, CT, etc. excluded. Thus, people are not voting based on name, rather, based on gameplay. That has been my explanation for the 128 bracket all along, why it's been so screwy, and that's because most of the predictions made have been on name value, when that is effectivly thrown out here.

Blimey, Starcraft won. That's my 128 completely done now (could only have picked up four points from a Zelda win anyway - Vice City reaching the final 4 was a bit of an error), although I'll definitely be voting Starcraft next round. Oh yes.

200 extra Zelda votes and I'd be up to a (still poor) 70 points, but more importantly I'd have pwned the Prophet Challenge...

Only four games left in my bracket now. The end is nigh.
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Jon Thomson - 42/55, 66/92 - today: Vice City (voting SSBM), tomorrow: Mario 3

It's official. The 128-bracket = Huge cluster****
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Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
summoner? wtf! summoner=Yuna Taru=midgit GaryPayton LA

And does anyone else notice that the spamming of B.net doesn't seem to be frowned upon by most here but when it happened with Planet Gamecube, there was a massive uproar? What's with the double standards?
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Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
summoner? wtf! summoner=Yuna Taru=midgit GaryPayton LA

Dunno. Probably something to do with the fact Blizzard didn't put it anywhere on their sites, whereas PGC did.

And I'm okay with these tactics, anyway. They're cheap, yes, but they're within the rules.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/092 --- Matches: 48/55 --- Rank: 00274/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10

sc IS a phenomenon, personally i'm glad it won.

It's toast pretty soon .. but not without a fight!

(i won't be fighting for it, but i know someone will)

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""To die alone, is dying period." quote made by myself." -bluefalcon

2000 votes is the new record for a successful comeback. Glad it was Starcraft that pulled it off, that`s for sure =)
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Who was the previous record-holder? Samus vs. Sonic?

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The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

Oh, and allow me to point out that Starcraft, a 32 bit game, may very well win the 128 bit division. What an absolute joke. I don`t care that it`s finally getting the respect it deserves, but CJayC really ****ed this bracket up.

In other news, the only chance I have of winning this contest is if I go perfect the rest of the way. And the way things are looking for SSBM, it will be pure hell just to get past FFX. Getting past Starcraft, too? Ouch.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Seriously, how many 50/50 matches do we need in the 128-bit division?! the recursive rankings will be shot to hell, and if we redid this *entire* division with random seedings, i've got a feeling we'd know nothing more then than we know now...

oh, and i've said this every round, but damn starcraft... this time it *really* hurt as I had WW winning the division. I've been 1 point outside the leaderboard for so long, and now the dream is over. Lasted much longer than in '03 though.

And: I can't remember who it was that said this, but it does seem that SC has the potential to win matches by exactly the necessary amount - everytime it's taken the lead late it struggles slightly afterwards, presumably due to reduced spamming.

I still doubt it has the power to take down a *real* heavyweight though... but how often have we been wrong about starcraft?

I really do buck the trend though - so many people seem to support the little... blighter every time it wins, and it just annoys me even further. All the gloating is extremely annoying (and i'm not even a big zelda fan... or not by the standards of this board, anyway!)

Good job it's only a contest, I suppose... ;)

Well, considering most of the leaderboard of yesterday got the match wrong as well, getting Starcraft vs. Wind Waker wrong does not necessarily doom your bracket. Amazingly, having 82 points, I only lost 26 places from yesterday. Saitou7777 was in the lead yesterday and lost his perfect bracket and #1, and yet remained at #3 today.
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Spring Contest 2004 (Best. Game. Ever.): My Score: 82/92 Rank: T-129 Today's Pick: SSBM

All Lucky 7s:

Final Fantasy X 50.41% 7777
Super Smash Bros. Melee 49.59% 7650
TOTAL VOTES 15427
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Went to sleep with StarCraft down by 1800.... what a shocker. I am now convinced StarCraft can gain whatever amount of votes it needs against any game. It sucks to have your bracket destroyed to your favorite game ever >.<
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25-19 1st Place NL East
Next up: Atl Braves

Oh, and allow me to point out that Starcraft, a 32 bit game, may very well win the 128 bit division. What an absolute joke. I don`t care that it`s finally getting the respect it deserves, but CJayC really ****ed this bracket up.

Yep. Is the current generation so atrocious that none of its games will even be able to win the division set aside for it?

I say that unless Zelda 10 has a say in it, the only game from this generation that will be remembered as fondly as games like SMB3 ten years from now will be SSBM.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/092 --- Matches: 48/55 --- Rank: 00274/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10

^To be fair, this generation is still evolving. Not to mention classics like Devil May Cry got it's spot stolen from games like FFTA. You can add FF12 to Zelda10 as well.
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25-19 1st Place NL East
Next up: Atl Braves

Damn, I missed the last two hours of the WW/SC match, could someone give me a summary?

And Starcraft won. Holy crap. That is just incredible. It seems as if every time Starcraft goes against a more popular game than it should be able to defeat, its "popularity" (i.e. Battle.net support) increases by just enough to defeat its opponent. It could very well take this division which would be hilarious, as has been noted, since it shouldn't even be in Division 128.

Looks like we've got another close match today, too. Jesus.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 79/92, Next Winner: Final Fantasy X

Oh, and Heroic Mario:

MASS CARRIERS = INSTANT WIN

Looks like you'll have to hear that wonderful phrase for at least five more days :)

</gloating>

Starcraft should definitely have won the respect of everyone in this topic. The vast majority of us have been pwned.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 79/92, Next Winner: Final Fantasy X

Oh hell yes. I think Starcraft has what it takes to win the division now. If it can take out a semi-weak Zelda, it should be able to oust a semi-weak FF, or a game that's struggling like mad to beat it.

These extrapolated rankings for division 128 are completely ****ed up and will tell us nothing, I think. We're probably going to enter next year's contest with even more doubt than this one.

I gotta go soon, but when I come back, expect a massive update on my Excel file, complete with graphs for yesterday's match... and today's may call for it as well.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/092 --- Matches: 48/55 --- Rank: 00274/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10

Just imagine if SC did tha to every opponent.... all the way up to the finals. The idea of FF7 = WW? *shudders* The thought is disgusting.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Forget that, FF7 = Halo! Oh yeah! And the rankings go bye bye thanks to the SC touch ^^

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The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Starcraft came within a mere few thousands of FF7/OoT. And I'm being dead serious.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 081/092 --- Matches: 48/55 --- Rank: 00274/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10

Starcraft had my respect anyway, as I own the game and love it to bits.My bracket only had it going as far as the 3rd round, but I still support until it hits OoT(if it does).

I think it will go down next round though.The previous 3 games went down because of the hate factor, and SSBM doesn't have that.

I laught in the face of the Starcraft doubters.
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Supporter of Starcraft and Ocarina Of Time in the Spring Contest!

And it's about time, slow, because before you were completely discounting the possibility of it even making it this far.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Peeps of GameFAQ's! Heed my call as I beckon thee!
All of you who call this place a 2nd home! :) Well it's time for...the once again fully revised...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the legendary and ever humorous commentary spews forth from my quickly typing hands, to offer some funny and lighthearted yet well-honed levity, here on this the stats thread... the past, present and future bastion of proven intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the greatest NES game of all time getting its due, in the Ancient Division

ROUND 4: Match LVII (57...)

(1)Mario 3 vs (3) Zelda 1

Steve's Prediction: Mario by 52.2%
Steve's Bracket: Mario
No Way I'd Pick: Kid Niki
Upset Chances: Nope...The #1 Seed Rides On...

Comments: It is getting tough to write about the same games 4+ times now...so if the next few days are short in content, I apologize!!! Plus I am a little disgrunteled due to freakin StarCraft costing me 4 points, and now SSMB might do it too...Geesh... Glad its coming to a close this week!

The King of Platformers takes on the Icon of Nintendo. Wow. This match defines the good old days completely. These two characters, their series, their legacies are part of the firm foundation of gaming today. It is a pity one of them must lose here now...

Why Mario Will Advance: It is the better game from an overall standpoint. It is the best of the Mario series, best game on the NES, best of its generation. Mario will get his due at last in tourney history and secure a spot in the Final Four.

Why Zelda Wont Advance: It destroyed 3 cupcakes...though it will now lose to a far worthier foe...but barely. Will be a great match.

Did you also not hate?...World 3-8 and that stupid Big Bertha! Getting 250 Rupees for the Blue Ring!

Probable Results: No more blowouts, no more one sided matches. Anything can happen with the Elite Eight still here...but I feel Mario will eek this one out on respect, 52.2% is my guess and it might be too high...

More Quotes! "Pick a box" -Toad's House, "Spectacle Rock is the entrance to death" -Old Man, "Buy somethin' will ya?" -Merchant
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SCK24: 76/92 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years