When I`m done with my beer, I`m going to sleep. One thing of note is an early 70-30 split in OOT`s match:

Goldeneye 30.1% 174
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 69.9% 404
TOTAL VOTES 578

If this keeps up, OOT stands no chance next round.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

It depends on who you ask.

Zelda Fanboy: 50.000000000000000000001%

Regular Joe Schmo: 75%

However, this won't keep up, since all Zelda games, and especially Ocarina of Time, are much stronger during the day.
---
Hard work may not kill you, but why take chances?
Aeowyn is my God - Heroic Tails here

Jesus, and OOT`s percentage is actually going DOWN?! No Fn way. I didn`t think it would score less than 75% in this match.

So does this prove that MGS > GE to all the doubters?
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Nearly 79% of the brackets had Final Fantasy VII advancing this far, which is easily the highest so far this round. Ocarina of Time should be able to match that, I think.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 72/84
Today: (2)Ocarina of Time over (3)GoldenEye

Yeah, Ocarina of Time should have little trouble breaking 74% by the time this is over.

*kicks himself for lowering his Oracle prediction*
---
smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

So does this prove that MGS > GE to all the doubters?

I don't think we can safely conclude that yet.
---
smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Ulti, Ocarina of Time is at 71% and rising right now and we haven`t even hit morning yet. OoT`s percentage will definitely be over 75% by the end of this match.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Hum.. OoT's percentage is actually going up... 71% right now, and with the day vote to look forward to.
---
Hard work may not kill you, but why take chances?
Aeowyn is my God - Heroic Tails here

True. I just saw it drop from 71 to 69 in my refreshing. Glad to see it`s where it belongs.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Nearly 79% of the brackets had Final Fantasy VII advancing this far, which is easily the highest so far this round. Ocarina of Time should be able to match that, I think.

I don`t believe so. I think OOT manages 72% of the prediction percentage, to be honest. Super Mario 64 and Goldeneye were sexy pics for an upset, and definitely moreso than any of the games that could have faced FF7 by this point.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Goldeneye is stronger than I thought O_o
---
I am the passenger.
And I ride and I ride.

Oops, I misread OoT's percentage from the last round on the stats page. It definitely won't match FFVII.

I'd be very content if the percentage stayed exactly as it is right now.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 72/84
Today: (2)Ocarina of Time over (3)GoldenEye

Goldeneye is a 3rd seed? I just realised. That's nothing to laugh at O_o
---
I am the passenger.
And I ride and I ride.

Back under 70.

Yeah..OoT's gonna flatten Goldeneye with hopefully 75% and more...but tomorrow...everyone's gonna act the fool no matter who wins tomorrow....

And hopefully that will be the Starcraft fans..*ahem*...


---
Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.

Some replies: (I wasn't here last night)

cyko says: i'm still not quite sure what to expect from Wind Waker tomorrow. LTTP got 74% against a Metroid game while Wind Waker only scored 55% against a Metroid game.

That’s because there’s barley or no SFF in these newer games because people have played them and they can deiced for themselves, but older games you will have to go how well you know the series.

UltimaterializerX says: Jesus, and OOT`s percentage is actually going DOWN?! No Fn way. I didn`t think it would score less than 75% in this match.

I’ve been doing updates for a while and I can tell you Nintendo doesn’t get a really strong night vote and Sqaure doesn’t get a really strong day vote either.

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 73/84 LoZ: WW vs. Goldeneye

OoT's already at nearly 74%.

I think it'll hit 78-80% before this match is over.
---
Current Score: 80/84 Ranked: 21st
Today's Pick: Zelda over Goldeneye

Anyway, what is the general consensus? MGS is probably slightly stronger than goldeneye, but I think the difference is fairly negligible. I'm sure if there was a match between MGS and Goldeneye it'd be very close. I think the current results only prove that next round's match will be extremely close.
---
Current Score: 80/84 Ranked: 21st
Today's Pick: Zelda over Goldeneye

From these results, I think FF7/OoT will be as good as they say.

That is, if OoT stops going the way of the Titanic like it's been doing for the past hour or so.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

From these results, I think FF7/OoT will be as good as they say.

Was there ever any doubt? FFVII vs. OoT will be *the* match! Can't be too pumped for it yet, though, because we've got Starcraft vs. Wind Waker tomorrow. It may not be close but I really want to see the match.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

I'm thinkin' MGS is slightly stronger than Goldeneye.

*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #55 - (16) STARCRAFT vs. (5) LEGEND OF ZELDA: THE WIND WAKER ***

Sales

Starcraft sold twice as much as Wind Waker, worldwide. Easy...

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Franchises

Is it really worth commenting? Wind Waker takes Starcraft downtown to chinatown by the sole power of the mighty triumph forks.

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: Wind Waker
Number of reviews: Wind Waker
Average review score: Starcraft
Board activity: Starcraft

I'll put it this way... combine Starcraft AND Brood War, and it still can't beat Wind Waker in the first two categories. Even if it has a slight edge in the other two, I gotta hand that one to Wind Waker just for that, I mean, come on, it's a handicap match!

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 52
Starcraft - 3
Also picked: Metroid Prime (29), Kingdom Hearts (11), Halo: Combat Evolved (4), Half-Life (2), Skied of Arcadia (1)

POINT VALUE
8. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 619
28. Starcraft - 81

That's right, Soul Calibur is the only game in this entire half-division that was never picked to win it.

Seriously, Starcraft is REALLY out of place here. The other games remaining are all in the top 10 with at least 600 points, and Starcraft is 28th at 81. It beat a game with 127 points, then another one with 290... is 619 going to be enough, dammit?

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Previous Rounds

Unless you think Soul Calibur could beat Metroid Prime, unless you think Halo could beat Wind Waker, you know where this one's going.

- Advantage WIND WAKER

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

It's absolutely impossible to gauge Starcraft's power here, and the only think we have for Wind Waker is an arguably inaccurate poll.

- UNAVAILABLE.

Intangibles

Battle.net lenghthened Starcraft's stay in this tournament for an entire month. It took every last bit of spamming to put it over Halo, and we were even starting to get Halo votes from B.net out of spite for the spammers. So we essentially saw Starcraft at full power there. Else this match would be Halo vs. Wind Waker. (But that would imply Maplejet being right, causing the universe to implode. j/k)

Anyway, it doesn't matter if Starcraft was fully powered to take on Halo, Battle.net is still a resource Wind Waker doesn't have. And let's not forget, the board is as much behind Starcraft, if not more, than it was against Halo. Of course, it's essentially a non-factor, but we could be seeing a pattern similar to Cloud/CATS and Squall/Luigi here. In fact, mark my words: Starcraft WILL take the lead in the opening moment, then let Wind Waker take it from there. And if Starcraft fails to take the lead, it's in for a world of pain when the casual vote kicks in.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Conclusion: Those who expect to see Triple H vs. Shelton Benjamin all over again... SNAP OUT OF IT. Wind Waker was more impressive so far against tougher opponents (erm, well, Metroid Prime at least), the Zelda name is still very powerful, and if there's any bracket vote (and it's not going to come from the board user, it never does), it's so totally NOT in favor of Starcraft. I don't see how anyone can really make a point for it.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

Despite how the next match should not be very close, I`m actually looking forward to it.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

what's SFF?
---
Never argue with a fool, people might not know the difference.

Same fanbase factor.

Hey statheads, you didn`t answer this one:

I`ll be in bed soon, but I have a question I`d like to see an answer to when I awaken later. What percentage does OOT need against Goldeneye to be considered the favorite against FF7?
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

I`d say 76%.

But then again I don`t really think that these past two matches are going to help us anymore than before we saw them.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Actually, I would up that to 77% instead of 76%.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Hm, that's a bit high. Keep in mind that SotN got creamed by Goldeneye... I'd say 74% is pretty much the norm.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

So if OOT scores 74% against Goldeneye, it beats FF7? I don`t know about that. It`s not like SOTN or Goldeneye were exactly strong games coming into this contest.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Alucard scored 27% on Sephiroth last year, and he's about the same strength as Link... I doubt the character is much more popular than the game in this case.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

77% might be to high, but 74%? That seems a little low. I mean, OoT should beat that by a percent by the time the match is over I wouldn`t imagine it would need only a percent more to be a favorite.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Sephy is about the same strength as Link? I`m not so sure about that, personally.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Peeps of GameFAQ's! Do I have your attention?
All of you who dwell here and post away your lives! :) Well it's time for...the newly modernized...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the legendary and ever humorous commentary rages on from the soon to be 350 Karma Legend, to offer some lighthearted yet well-honed levity, here on this the stats thread... the one bastion of proven intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the fall of the Great Carrier Hope here in the Modern Era Division

ROUND 3: Match LV (55...)

(16)StarCraft vs (5)Zelda Windwaker

Steve's Prediction: Zelda by 53%
Steve's Bracket: Zelda
LUE's Pick: "Go Kerrigan!"
Upset Chances: Anything can happen here...it really can

Comments: Zelda looks to go 4 for 4 into the Elite Eight as it faces off with tourney darling StarCraft.

StarCraft is the Ralph Nader of this contest. A vote for it now...is a wasted vote! It cant win! It broke lots of brackets already and I cant have it break mine now! Sure it has done good so far and appeals now to the independent minded voter looking to eradicate the two gaming parties of Square and Nintendo and their gaming dominance.

The bandwagon is overflowing with disaffected gamers, broken brackets who have tossed in the towel, and haters of RPG's and Zelda. It is coming for blood, a fleet of carriers loaded with ammo to try and take out the lone vessel of Link with.

Can it happen? It very well could. I, however, do not think that it will.

Historical Insights: StarCraft, arguably Blizzard's most successful game in a string of successes, developed into an Asian phenomenon where champions are revered, and the game designers are kings and queens. Still holds up as one of the finest RTS games, to some, the finest.

Zelda Wind Waker showed that cel shading could be done right to create an amazing gaming experience. Others have followed suit, including Viewtiful Joe, and created a whole new style of gaming graphical prowess.

Why Zelda Will Prevail: Voting blocks: Nintendites will lead it to win, so they can see 4 Zeldas at such a late stage in the tourney and break the spirit of the Square Legions, they hope.

Why StarCraft Wont Prevail: It has done better than almost everyone thought it would, but its running into a real opponent this time, not the gem of a disliked system or a wishy washy flim flam RPG. It lacks the tools to prevail here.

Take a moment to remember...Sailing in 79.9% of the game! Building carriers...and more carriers...

Probable Results: The first of 2 close ones here in the end of this round, but Celda will win by a narrow narrow margin. Good match.

Random Quotes: None today! Takin the day off...got stuff to do!
---
SCK24: 76/88 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

In other news, I'll put up a topic soon with my pseudo-SC2K4 bracket for all to see, especially those who didn't see it last fall.

Got mine ready too, tweaked a little from last fall when i made it but it looks good. Look forward to seeing yours Slow.

Zelda is doing 73.5 now, I predicted 73.0. Lookin good. That match next week will be damn close.
---
SCK24: 76/88 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

I'd say 74% is enough to make OoT look like a strong opponent for FFVII, since we really don't by how much MGS > Goldeneye. For it to be a sure bet, however, I'd say OoT would have to get 78%, and there's no way that's going to happen.

I don't think either of these matches is helping us much in calling the winner of the division. Neither game has grossly underperformed or overperformed. My gut tells me to be secure with my predicted FFVII victory but there isn't any logical way to call the match from the current stats we have.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

Sephy is about the same strength as Link? I`m not so sure about that, personally.

I'm not so sure, either, much as I'd like to believe it. It doesn't feel right, but the statistics do point toward that being the case.

Heck, going by the stats, I'd say Sephiroth > Link. Sephy may have gotten .3% more of the vote than Sephy did against Cloud but if Cloud vs. Sephiroth isn't a SFF match then I don't know what is. Even if they are both heavyweights and SFF tends to have less of an effect in such a case, these are two characters from the same *game* we're talking about here, and it would only need to make enough difference to affect one half of one percent of the vote for Sephiroth to be a slight favorite over Link.

As I said, I don't really believe that logic myself because I just can't imagine a world in which Sephiroth would defeat Nintendo's greatest heavyweight. It simply couldn't happen.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: Wind Waker
Number of reviews: Wind Waker
Average review score: Starcraft
Board activity: Starcraft

I'll put it this way... combine Starcraft AND Brood War, and it still can't beat Wind Waker in the first two categories. Even if it has a slight edge in the other two, I gotta hand that one to Wind Waker just for that, I mean, come on, it's a handicap match!

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Yow... you are a Zelda fanboy after all!
---
Points: 72/80/192
My pick for today: (2)OoT over (11)Castlevania: SotN - Tomorrow: (4)Metroid Prime over (9)K. Hearts

I kind of agree with Garsha, Slow. It's your analysis but, in my humble opinion, I'd call it a tie when one game rules in two categories and the other rules in the other two.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

I`m guessing you combined StarCraft Brood War and StarCraft`s boards together to get board activity otherwise I don`t see how SC beats out WW.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

You DO know that CJayC is more lenient for reviews and FAQs on games that don't have much, right? 75 reviews for Wind Waker is far more meaningful than 73 spread over two games. And if you check the FAQs, many of them are the EXACT same.

If I was a Zelda fanboy, I'd have kept regular Starcraft out of it and considered only Brood War since it's much bigger, and Wind Waker would've swept there.

And Steve, I already posted the topic... just search for "pseudo".

What next? Oh yes, the extrapolated rankings, I'll work on that in a minute.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

You DO know that CJayC is more lenient for reviews and FAQs on games that don't have much, right? 75 reviews for Wind Waker is far more meaningful than 73 spread over two games. And if you check the FAQs, many of them are the EXACT same.

As I said, it's your analysis. I just don't remember the last time that you gave the win to one game over another when both were *technically* tied. You probably have before and I just don't remember but I'm looking at this analysis more closely than others you've done because I'm interested in the match.

It's not like it actually makes a difference. It's not worth arguing over because Wind Waker has a very high probability of winning tomorrow no matter how the match is analyzed.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

Go, Zelda! Take down Starcraft!

Soon they'll be saying "Sailing = Instant Win"

Haha. :-) I can't WAIT to laugh at all these poor Starcraft fans when they see their favorite game go down in flames...along with the son of a [.....] mass carriers. :-)

Yes...YES...YES...the most fun day of the contest.
---
Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.

Fact is, when a game fell under two entries, there was always a clear loser and a clear winner. Normally, I'd go to the margin of victory to declare a winner in case of a tie, but that was not enough... however, site rules DO make a difference, even if it doesn't look like it. I'll readily admit that it was the closest battle so far in this category, however. If there was an expansion for WW (now with 80% more sailing! Woo!), the picture would be quite different as well.

EXTRAPOLATED RANKINGS FOR UPPER DIVISION 32/64

1. 50.00% - (1) Final Fantasy 7
2. 28.70% - (4) Metal Gear Solid
3. 28.69% - (5) Final Fantasy Tactics
4. 19.97% - (9) Xenogears
5. 16.86% - (13) Resident Evil
6. 16.79% - (8) Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal
7. 14.37% - (16) Suikoden 2
8. 13.75% - (12) Dance Dance Revolution

Resident Evil behind Xenogears, and by this much? Interesting. Can't say DDR being dead last is very much of a surprise. Of course, it's going to get bumped for that spot by PDS and NiGHTS, and possibly Fallout 2 as well.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

That's not the point. Fine, even combined SC can't touch WW in reviews and FAQs, it doesn't change you from basically altering your system for this match to give Zelda an advantage. It doesn't matter if one just completly WTFPWN'S in 2 catagories, if the other wins in the other 2 catagories, it should be a tie.

Well, I respectfully disagree. I try to avoid ties whenever possible.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 077/084 --- Matches: 47/53 --- Rank: 00205/40940 --- Today's pick: OoT

Hey, it's your analysis, Slow. I was a little skeptical but you've answered to my satisfaction.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

I still would have just put in a tie, personally, but I understand your reasons for not doing so.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 75/84, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

Zelda continues to trickle down to closer to 73%...

An offbeat Steve Stat: If Zelda holds up, I will have my 2 best oracle picks and the best of anyone for a given match for the same game, Ocarina of Time.

Interesting eh?

Alright so u may not care...just had to mention it cause I am bored!

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SCK24: 76/88 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years