Okay, 502 posts in just two days? That's ridiculous...

Stats websites:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html
Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)
2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.
Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm
Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14214597 (Until purge)

Oracle Standings:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/oracle.html

Speedy work solar :) Thanks.

The next match is going to tell us a lot, because we still don't know how strong SMRPG is.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Yay, we have the real topic. =)
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

thanx be to solar.

and wtg ulti for the interim topic.

Speedy work solar :) Thanks.

Heh. I was watching the topic, then got dragged away for a bit. I thought, "How quickly could they possibly burn through 50 posts?" Apparently I underestimated you guys because the old one's been closed for about half an hour. ;)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

OMFG! Solarshadow *himself* posted *twice* in his own topic!

Hehe, anyway, back on the topic of CT vs. SMW, I doubt CT will get less than 55% and I wouldn't be too surprised if it got over 60%, in which case it would be safe to say that we have severly underestimated SMRPG's fanbase, something that isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 63/68, Next Winner: The Legend of Zelda

I think CT will rest around the 54-55% area if not get upset by SMW, it`s definitely something that is a possibility. CT also lost a ton of the day vote to SMRPG, something I could SMW doing.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

OMFG! Solarshadow *himself* posted *twice* in his own topic!

Careful, or I'll do it a third time.

Actually, I'd better watch it. These things hit 500 fast enough as it is...
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

marking
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Those who live by the sword are shot by those who don't.
Outlawing catapults would mean only outlaws use catapults.

I dunno, I think that if SMW can take down Chrono Trigger, which I somewhat doubt, LttP isn't out of reach either. And then SMB3 can win its division, melee can win its division, and then I suppose OoT can win its division, and then we can have a 3 Mario with a Zelda final. : )

And then hell can freeze over...
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb

You're right Heroic Mario, Chrono Trigger will probably lose a lot of the day vote. It probably needs to get 54% over the night.

I dunno, I think that if SMW can take down Chrono Trigger, which I somewhat doubt, LttP isn't out of reach either.

Nah, SMW can't beat A Link to the Past.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Hey Slowflake, through 50 matches, the BOP is tied for 9th place... why again did we not all just follow the popular opinion of those who follow this site to an insane extreme?
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Contest: 63/68; I miss being in tied for 17th place... =(

CT should head off to a strong start. It's got board favoritism behind it. he board like Mario, but the board likes CT more. It's only how much will it jump ahead by and how long it can hold on to that. I think it's more than enough to win though.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Mario is the board favorite actually. But the real board vote doesn't last longer than a couple minutes at most, after which it'll probably shift to Chrono Trigger for most of the night.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Wow, see why I suggested the label change? This last topic there was entirely about the Summer Contest! (Also, be thankful that a lot of that discussion was made in a topic by DaveTheUseless, else we could be looking at a part 20 now.)

Someone talked about having one nomination per company... do you imagine what the bracket would be like if it was a REGULAR bracket, but with that nomination system? No way Vercetti and Master Chief wouldn't BOTH get 1-seeds that way! I mean, just think of a random Nintendo character, a random Square character, a random Bungie character, and a random Rockstar character!

About the SMW/LttP issue: See what a slightly more popular Zelda did to a slightly more popular Mario? I'd expect the same. CT is the only think that has a chance in hell of stopping LttP from going to the finals, and I doubt it's going to do it.
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SAVE THE SUMMER CONTEST!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=14242163

There's buzz for SMW winning, but that doesn't mean the hardcore voters are actually going to vote for it. Both are so good that it'll be tough no doubt, but I think a lot of people are sitll pulling for CT as the "historical" underdog. I mean, really, could they have swayed themselves out of remembering that fact by thinking is now somehow overhyped?
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I do expect CT to get most of the night, but if SMW can manage to keep it low it won`t exactly look good for tomorrow when SMW should be expected to eat away, in massive amounts, at that day vote.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

"I mean, just think of a random Nintendo character, a random Square character, a random Bungie character, and a random Rockstar character!"

Luigi, Vincent, absolutely no one, Max Payne.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I knew someone would come up with Max Payne sooner or later.

That wasn't the point I was trying to make. Who in the hell would nominate Max Payne?

And what company is Gordon from, too? I guess he'll be a nomination magnet due to being the only recognizable face within it, too...

*thinks of Gordon going all the way back up to a 3-seed*

*shudders*
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SAVE THE SUMMER CONTEST!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=14242163

It's a shame to see Tetris doing so poorly. Still, making it to the Sweet 16 is pretty respectable, even if it did have weak competition. Farewell, Tetris!

As of now I have a strong feeling that LoZ is going to beat SMB3. I had this same feeling right before StarCraft vs. KH, and that one proved to be true.

I both love and hate the unpredictability of this contest.
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"Delicious morsel! Let me get my bib...!" - Ultros
Vote Chrono Trigger!

Are you trying to give us nightmares, Slowflake?
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Of course someone was going to think of Max Payne, you're just lucky I was the first to come by it as there are a few Max Payne fans floating around here and there. That chick from Oni might even get votes in such a system, but there's nothing to detract from MC. Nothing. And Half Life is valve or something, right? Nothing will detract from Gordon, admittedly, but then again there's nothing to add to Gordon. Most people don't konw what game he's from, let alone what company.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

no, cn, ceej is trying to give us nightmares, Slow is just pointing out Ceej's gameplan.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

And what company is Gordon from, too? I guess he'll be a nomination magnet due to being the only recognizable face within it, too...

Valve. To be fair, I doubt that Valve will get its own nomination slot... Half-Life was it's first game, and every other game from them are Half-Life mods.

Go Gordon!
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Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

Gordon Freeman - #1 seed.

has a certain ring to it.

CJayC has apparently become the Evil Overlord of this site, when he was once the Benevolent Monarch.

Let us see whether Ceej will make any of the tradition Evil Overlord mistakes. If he does, his great rival Crono shall eventually be his downfall.

http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Well let's look at it I'll show you the update for 1:00 (to eliminate any of the board's vote) for each of CT and SMW's match

CT vs. SoM
1:00: 78.82%-21.18%
Final: 79.39%-20.61%
Difference: +0.57%

SMW vs. The Simpsons
1:00: 83.51%-16.49%
Final: 81.47%-18.53%
Difference: -2.04%

CT vs. SMRPG
1:00: 74.20%-25.80%
Final: 67.06%-32.94%
Difference: -7.14%

SMW vs. Sonic 2
1:00: 71.99%-28.01%
Final: 70.57%-29.43%
Difference: -1.42%

In the first round we really can't say much because we never seen Som and The Simpsons in action before, but CT did worse in round 2 because SMRPG gets a really big day vote and SMW did better in round 2 because Sonic 2 also went down during the day. So for SMW to win it has to have a lead early in the match
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 61/68 LoZ vs. Tetris

from the last topic:

From: cyko | Posted: 5/23/2004 10:27:31 PM | Message Detail
CJayC DID say that he had some surprise in store for this years match. i was also thinking that he might divide characters by company, Slowflake. you could have the Nintendo division, Square Division, Sega & Capcom & Konami Division, and Everything Else Division.


heh, i was the first one to breakdown the companys into those divisions if we were stuck with a company divided bracket; and after reading the last topic ( and i did read just about the entire thing!!) it looks like everyone is sticking with that as the possibility for the way the divisions will be divided, lol.

the main thing i gathered from the second half of the last topic is that the Characters will be divided by Company. bleh. i guess it's not the worst idea, but my biggest complaint is how predictable it will be. i believe Ulti said that anyone who's been paying attention to the contest stats at all over the past two years is capable of a near perfect bracket, because we've already gauged how each character stands within their own companies. i also agree with Ulti that we're practically guaranteed at least one perfect bracket if that format is used.

on the bright side, Ryu Hayabusa could beat Master Cheif and Vercetti to win the Everything Else Division.

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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

on the bright side, Ryu Hayabusa could beat Master Cheif and Vercetti to win the Everything Else Division.

Hey, that's a great call. I could definitely see that happening.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I could definitely see that as well.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

It's not unlikely, and that just makes the format that much worse.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

and back to the spring contest.............

i'm still not convinced that Zelda 1 will be able to beat SMB3. it's mopping the floor with Tetris, but SMB3 would've done just as well. heck, Final Fantasy would've done almost as well.

as for the 16-Bit Division, it's still up in the air, imo. but i just can't see Mario World taking down Chrono Trigger. if SMRPG could only manage 33%, i don't think Mario World can make up that big of a difference. Mario might have whomped Sonic 2, but do you honestly think SMRPG would've done much worse against Sonic 2?

and, if Chrono Trigger breaks 60%, then the Square prescence will be proven yet again, showing that FF6 is very much alive and well in it's match against LTTP. don't count FF6 out just yet.

after that, the next two 32/64 Division matches are nap time before the rest of the contest gets really exciting.

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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

and, if Chrono Trigger breaks 60%, then the Square prescence will be proven yet again, showing that FF6 is very much alive and well in it's match against LTTP. don't count FF6 out just yet.

That`s possible, but I just can`t see SMW being only able to get CT down 6% from SMRPG. That just seems... wrong. I really think this match is going to end with CT under 55% since this is a big Mario game. And as for ALttP, I still think it has this division in its grasp and is jus waiting to get out, the game just looks extremely strong if you ask me. FFVI can`t be counted out, as no game should, but beating ALttP really seems like a stretch to me.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Between SMW and FF3/6, which one would you consider to be the stronger game?
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

I think I had SMW ranked ahead of FFVI in the last topic... not sure though.


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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

That's a tough one to tell. I would think FF6, but considering Kefka's performance it can't be THAT strong even if it is much, much stronger than Kefka. Probably SMW, then.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

to me, FF6 vs. LTTP is the toughest match to call this round. the entire Zelda series has dominated so far and LTTP's beating of Super Metroid left me picking up my jaw. but, FF6 has things going for it, too:

- it has the Final Fantasy name, which is the only franchise here that can rival the Zelda series.

- FF6 did almost has good as LTTP with fewer brackets predicting it to win (73.42% vs. 66.89%). that may not mean much, but it does show that FF6's opponents were actually expected to do better than LTTP's oponents, but FF6 got as many votes as LTTP.

- neither of FF6's opponents have been pushovers. in particular, i believe we are all underestimating Doom. with a ten seed, it most likely received the most nominations out of ALL of the PC games (definitely in the Top Four for PC games); which is particularly impressive when you consider how many PC games must have been nominated. and don't forget (for the little bit it's worth) that Doom was the number Two most popular PC game in Gamespy's contest (only behind Half-Life), where it made the Final Four and basically tied SMB3. i wish i would have realized all of this before i predicted Earthbound to beat Doom, but reluctantly i have to admit that Doom is a tough PC game to beat.

both games are masterpieces and represent two excellent series, but honestly, this match still looks like it can go either way at this point.

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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

Yeah, I did here is what I posted earlier:


1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
3. Final Fantasy VII
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. The Legend of Zelda
7. Super Mario World
8. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee
11. Final Fantasy VI
12. Metal Gear Solid
13. StarCraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. GoldenEye
16. Tetris
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Thanks, cyko. Glad I'm not the only one thinking that Doom has been seriously underestimated.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 63/68, Next Winner: The Legend of Zelda

Looking at my list I would probably put Final Fantasy - when it was still in - over StarCraft.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

yeah, smitelf, especially after seeing Starcraft's impressive performance combined with Half-Life's respectable numbers, it's hard not to admit that we've underestimated all of the PC games.

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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

Doom is a tough PC game to beat.

I honestly think that any big name game could`ve done the same to Doom. And I would have expected ALttP to do better than 71% against it, though I don`t have anything to back this up other than my own prediction on such. I really don`t think this match is going to be close, in fact I`m predicting a good 60% for ALttP come Wednesday.

On a side note though, I hope all of the PC games were underestimated in a way. That would only help OoT`s case with Fallout 2 and Suikoden II.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Ive been of mind that Doom is stronger than we thought for awhile now... you people just thought I was crazy for saying it may be stronger than Super Metroid.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

That is crazy ;) Super Metroid probably suffered from SFF. I would bet a lot of money at even odds that Super Metroid would beat Doom. Final Fantasy VI would have to beat A Link to the Past by a good margin to make me think otherwise.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I`d be one to say I still think it`s crazy about Doom being stronger than Super Metroid. =)
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Yeah, but that's not I was even trying to say at the time, that's just how people interpreted it. So of course I sounded crazy, 'cause occasionally people don't bother to listen to reason and jump to wild conclusions all day long... and you people should be ashamed fo yourselves, because we all know that is MY job.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Based on the top 16 rankings posted by several users last topic, FF3/6 seems to be the favorite. 7 of the 9 had FF3 over SMW. However 3 of those 7 had FF3/6 only 1 rank higher than SMW. The last four has FF3 between 2 and 8 ranks higher. The two that had SMW higher than FF3 had SMW 4 and 5 ranks higher.
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

Well, I never put in my rankings cause I'm lazy, and besides that point they don't actually mean much. We'll find out the truth soon enough. Don't rush it guys, because as it stands all we have to look forward to is a royally ****ed up summer contest.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

For once looking forward to the summer contest isn`t so great. =\ Seeing those Nintendo and Square divisions...
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Not so great? It makes me wanna cry thinking about it. I'm a very sad panda indeed.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow