Oh, and that makes me think... Mario struggled against Cloud the day his new game was released but would have been thwomped if he met Cloud a year later... maybe he really did get enough 1 day excitement surpress Cloud which WOULD also explain part of Cloud's ginormous leap from one year to the next. After the first day most people would have realized Sunshine wasn't as great as hoped and Mario could have leveled off after only one odd-ball match.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Wow that is incredibly crappy... 122,000 total?
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Oh wait, guess what, that means 63 matches again, doesn't it? Sound fair to me.

Ah yes...that's right. 3 matches for each of 16 4-packs 1st round, 3 for 4 2nd round, and then 3 for the Final Four in the 3rd round. 63 total.

Again, the strongest character in each 4-pack in each round would probably go undefeated.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

"Its pretty set that Link and Mario aren`t going to get introduced to anyone new "

I won't even take the time to argue that. I'll just say it's simply not true.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Oh, oh US total. I see. But still did this game even surpass 600,000 worldwide sales? If not then I would not imagine anything major from that game in terms of helping Snake. << I mean, at least KH sold millions.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Metal Gear: Twin Snakes - > 122,435

...ow.

*scratches Snake off list of characters with sudden increases of popularity*

---
The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

I won't even take the time to argue that. I'll just say it's simply not true.

Unless you are below the age of 7 you have more than likely have heard of Link and Mario. If someone hasn`t and plays games they should be smacked across the face.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Yeah, and the issue of ties would be fairly minimal. If the top guy goes undefeated the other three would all have to play rock paper scissors to make a tie. Otherwise you should expect a tie for first between two unless somehow the bottom guy lost all three and the other three went rock paper scissors. In the early rounds that shouldn't be possible though.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

That number could have risen with the extra month of sales. Still that is a pretty low number.
---
Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

Oh, and that makes me think... Mario struggled against Cloud the day his new game was released but would have been thwomped if he met Cloud a year later... maybe he really did get enough 1 day excitement surpress Cloud which WOULD also explain part of Cloud's ginormous leap from one year to the next. After the first day most people would have realized Sunshine wasn't as great as hoped and Mario could have leveled off after only one odd-ball match.

I was also thinking something similar to this. Did any of the other characters in Cloud's half division make a large jump in popularity from 2k2 to 2k3?
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

Seijun:
Ah, but who would buy a DVD movie? That's right, the fans of the franchise. The average movie-goer would just pass over it, unless if it's heavily marketed.

I already stated that. But, firstly, Advent Children will be a hit and sell millions--it would be a shock if it didn't. It might not be well-received, but it won't flop. And again, it might expand the fanbase. We don't know.

Chichiri:
Oh, and that makes me think... Mario struggled against Cloud the day his new game was released but would have been thwomped if he met Cloud a year later

That would also explain Alucard's jump, but Tails didn't change at all. Fox only went down a little, and that can easily be explained by a little SFF with Link. And Pikachu actually went down a lot. INCONCLUSIVE'D

I won't even take the time to argue that. I'll just say it's simply not true.

Eh? I would completely disagree. I do think that Link and Mario are too old, have too many games, and are too well-known to change significantly in popularity. Unless you see them in some completely new type of game, like Mario palying a leather-jacket wearing badass in some FPS where he goes around tossing grenades at Goombas ;)
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Unless you are below the age of 7 you have more than likely have heard of Link and Mario. If someone hasn`t and plays games they should be smacked across the face.

Barnum once said that there's a sucker born every minute. Gamers come around a little less often, but still, the audience for games grows constantly. I would assume that a good deal of new gamers get their first system from the big N, with the top franchises and such. This can be attributed to the company's "family-friendly" reputation and the known brand name. "I'm going to play Nintendo", anyone?

Of all the characters in the SC, I'd say Nintendo's are the most likely to reach new gamers.
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

Alucard increased
Pikachu decreaesed (double SFF?)
Duke Nukem increased
Tails increased slightly
Fox increased.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

cn, they are your ranksing I'm looking at and you don't know that they show Fox as increasing? I even already stated that fact once before in this very thread man! *chuckles*
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

That would also explain Alucard's jump, but Tails didn't change at all. Fox only went down a little, and that can easily be explained by a little SFF with Link. And Pikachu actually went down a lot. INCONCLUSIVE'D

Duke Nukem also improved from 2k2 to 2k3. Pikachu's massive drop was probably caused by SFF in the match with Fox who got hit by SFF against Link. So it is possible that Cloud underperformed against Mario in 2k2. And the Planet Gamecube spamming probably attributed to it too.
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

http://sc2k4.com/summer_comparisons.php

This shows Fox and Tails decreasing.
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

TRE, you need to post more often. :)
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I'm looking here...
http://www.sc2k4.com/summer_comparisons.php

Fox went down from 18.99% against Link to 17.54%. Tails went down an insignificant amount. And Duke (who I completely forgot was even in 2K3) went up, but not by anything too high. He's a jobber anyway.

Alucard did increase in weighted popularity by more than anybody outside of the the KH boys and DK, and I don't think we ever explained that with anything else, but really, it's inconclusive. Possible, yes, but not certain.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

It may, but cn's rankings clearly show Fox improving.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

TRE, you need to post more often. :)

Yes, he should :)

It may, but cn's rankings clearly show Fox improving

Where are you looking?
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

72 || Fox McCloud '03 -- 16.62%
73 || Servbot '02 -- 16.4%
74 || Bomberman '03 -- 16.39%
75 || Max Payne '03 -- 16.27%
76 || Fox McCloud '02 -- 15.99%
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

With this 4-pack idea, it does require 6 matches/round/4-pack

A-B
A-C
A-D
B-C
B-D
C-D

6*16=96
normal for first 2 rounds=32+16=48
Doing this doubles matches required.
If you wanted to speed it up, but still make it fair you would have to do 2 at once, but switch which matchup is higher up mid-day. This keeps vote totals aproximately equal. In event of a tie, add up vote totals for those tied. Either 2-2-2-0 or 2-2-1-1 would be a tie.

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Record 39/49 Point Loss by Division: 8- 2, 16-1, 32 and 64-1, 128-9 <-teh crapshoot
Points: 55/68 Next: Vote Zelda , Pick Zelda Overall: Zelda I

Was that from one of my old posts? Because I was using a theoretically invalid method before. The one on the site now is the one others used, not the one I used.

The fact that they give different results, does show that the difference isn't anything major.

Alucard is the biggest piece of evidence for you hypothesis, and a good one. Not completely convincing though.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Doubling it up wouldn't be a problem. Simply put don't put one match on top of the other, put them side by side. No one is going to miss a match if they are both side by side with a left-hand justification.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

With this 4-pack idea, it does require 6 matches/round/4-pack

D'oh, you're right of course. Silly me. And I got an 'A' in Combinatorial Theory as an undergrad too :( My professor would be ashamed...

So you'd have to include only 32 entrants.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I think the fact that Tails didn't improve can also be attributed to SFF. Supposedly there was no SFF in Cloud vs Auron. But, what if there was a small bit of SFF in Cloud vs Auron? Enough to cancel out the small boost Tails would get because of Cloud's underperformance against Mario.
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

Doubling it up wouldn't be a problem. Simply put don't put one match on top of the other, put them side by side. No one is going to miss a match if they are both side by side with a left-hand justification.

I *really* don't think simultaneous polls is a good idea. Would people really bother to vote twice?
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

2-2-2-0 or 2-2-1-1 would be a tie.

and 2-2-1-1 is okay, because we need two and exactly two competitors to come out of a 4pack. 3-1-1-1 is an unfortunate tie like 2-2-2-0 is, but it's so unlikely if you have four packs like Link, Aiai, Pikachu, and Fox.

Link beats them all, he leaves 3-0.
Fox beats Pikachu and Aiai, he leaves 2-1
The rest doesn't matter, we have the two who will survive.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I think the fact that Tails didn't improve can also be attributed to SFF. Supposedly there was no SFF in Cloud vs Auron. But, what if there was a small bit of SFF in Cloud vs Auron? Enough to cancel out the small boost Tails would get because of Cloud's underperformance against Mario.

Hmmm...nice insight.

We're getting more complex than I would like, but that does make a lot of sense. And it supports the Auron SFF idea, which is what we all thought would happen beforehand.

This is fascinating stuff, but I don't think we'll ever know for sure.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I wasn't trying to prove anything though, I was just throwing out a hypothesis and making sure it wasn't disregarded completely as being utterly and irrevokably false.

And I know I would vote in two matches a day, but if that cannot bea I wouldn't mind the matches going on until late fall either. Both make me a happy panda.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

because we need two and exactly two competitors to come out of a 4pack

Actually, we'd want just one to come out. Though like you said, ties wouldn't matter since the winner of each 4-pack would probably go 6-0.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

So you'd have to include only 32 entrants.

Not necessarily. If we use The Icon's format (subliminal plug) for his World Cup, we could have more.

-Top 8 (Noble Nine minus Sonic) are locked into 8 slots.
-4-packs determine another 8 slots. (8*6 = 48)
-Rest of the tourney goes as natural. (15 losers = 15 matches)

48+15 = 63.

There. We've cut 24 slots, but kept the same number of days/matches.
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

Yeah, you're right. I was thinking of the actual World Cup hen I said two, I guess. They have 8 four packs (32 teams) and take two from each. We'd need 16 four packs and one winner to make it a pool of 64... unless we did preliminary matches to determine who makes the four packs... but then it's mass confusion....
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Well, with all that said, here's to hoping we keep the NCAA style bracket without any ****ing quirks.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Side by side would be good if doing 2 matches, but I still think they should be switched halfway through the day, just so people don't whine about it.

And as for 3-1-1-1 being a tie, you could simply shorten the whole contest by only having 1 winner out of a four-pack. That and the double poll makes the length 63 days (126 matches) if all done by 4-packs. This also shortens the contest to essentially 3 rounds: 64, 16, 4. That makes for too many high scores, and unless you are forced to pick the runner up (but they don't go on), only 21 picks would have to be made.

If you do let the runner-up go on, even with 2 a day, the contest streches to 91 days. (181 matches, the final not being a round-robin) This is fairer, but longer. However, seeing as summer is generally reguarded as 3 months of the year, it's not too too long.
---
Record 39/49 Point Loss by Division: 8- 2, 16-1, 32 and 64-1, 128-9 <-teh crapshoot
Points: 55/68 Next: Vote Zelda , Pick Zelda Overall: Zelda I

Side by side would be good if doing 2 matches, but I still think they should be switched halfway through the day, just so people don't whine about it.

That would be bad, since we know there are different voting trends during the day.

And while I really like the round robin idea, it will lead to a lot of fluff matches. If A beat B with 60% and B beat C with 70%, we basically know A is going to beat C with something around 76%, give or take a few percentage points (unless SFF was involved in B vs. C, but even then we know A will win with more than 60%). No suspense at all, and there would be a total lack of interest in the match.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Yeah, that'd be bad as well... *sighs* BUT, there's the off chance that may not happen. It'd be fun to see even one or two matches that break the expected trend.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I'm new to this discussion, but I wanted to make some comments.

First, I like the round robin idea, at least for the first part of the contest. One way to do two polls a day without the problem of one match being under voted would be to just make both polls one form, where you're required to choose one character from each poll in order to submit your vote.

Having a round robin might lead to more predictable matches, but since there'd be two polls a day, having one boring match would be fine. =)

On nominations - a few people mentioned HK-47, how about Bastila instead? Personally I liked her a lot better, but I don't know if anyone else agrees with me.

Finally, in response to this comment:

Come on... everyone and their brother wants to see Mario/Crono III, as these game-proxies of the match just do not create the same excitement.

You're right, but I think it's only because there's a history there. Imagine what it would be like if FFT and MGS face off again next year. Overall I think the game contest is more interesting - in general I would say people care more about games than about characters. Plus, it seems like things are a little more balanced (more contenders) in this contest. Opinions?

Looks like SMB3 is going to finish this match with just under 60% of the votes. Considering only 72% of brackets had SMB3 going this far(as opposed to FF's 82%), what percent of brackets do you think had SMB3 winning.

I'd say 59% of brackets will have SMB3 winning this match. The contestants don't seem to have as much faith as they should in this game.
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14237481

well there's a topic out there now claiming the divisions are to be grouped by developer... are we all in agreement that that's the *worst* idea out of all the ones put forward today?

having said that, does anyone know if this is a creditable source? I know nothing that tells me either way.

I think a moderator with 1930 Karma is a credible source.
---
Hard work may not kill you, but why take chances?
Aeowyn is my God - Heroic Tails here

Word from Devin Morgan is almost like word from CJayC himself. So I believe him.

And another piece of info he gave us in person, that you didn't hear on this board. The Summer 2004 contest will be a character battle contest. He plans on putting a given game maker's characters into their own divisions (Nintendo division: Mario, Samus, Fox; Square Division: Cloud, Sephiroth, Kefka, Crono, etc.). It would make for a pretty interesting contest, so look out for it at the end of next month. ;)

But that being said... Bull. ****ing. ****. That is the worst idea of them all. No Mario/Crono 3 unless Crono is put in the Nintendo division because of CT being on the SNES, SFF out the ass in every match, and a mass of blowouts. Such a contest wouldn`t be exciting until the Elite 8.

I think we`re about to see our first perfect bracket in any of these contests (the two that have perfects in this contest will most likely not keep them). How sad. Someone should get a perfect without it being handed to them. Same company divisions are a total waste of time, though I sort of figured this would happen.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Oh, and Zelda 1 is human! Thank God. Sure it might finish with 72-73% of the final vote, but this isn`t nearly the beating I believed it needed to be considered a threat to Super Mario 3.

And only 55% of you people thought SMB3 would make it this far? Who was going to beat it? Pac Man? Metroid? Metal Gear? Final Fantasy? Contra? Phantasy Star? PITFALL!?

I really wonder sometimes...
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Do not doubt the power of Pitfall, for it has the power to win the entire tourney!

At least, that's what my bracket says >>

---
The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

Oh, and 345 posts within 36 hours? You guys are insane.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Boy this is going really fast

Prediction Leaderboard:

1 The Return - 68
1 Saitou7777 - 68
3 leet g33k - 67
4 willyman76 - 66
4 SlangEdter41 - 66
4 Raistlin187 - 66
4 Dont Tread On ME - 66
4 CounterCloud - 66
9 Bananaquest - 65
9 tempoblade - 65
9 LordOfDabu - 65
9 alpha door - 65
9 PerfectDemon - 65
9 UltimaterializerX - 65
9 FrostHarpy - 65
9 PepeCamello - 65
9 kaonashi1 - 65
9 Modest Morte - 65
9 usefulidiot - 65
9 SSJGasSnake - 65
9 Roving Vagrant - 65
9 HoratioQHornblower - 65
9 Kirin17 - 65
9 Delpheous2003 - 65
9 Aprosenf - 65
9 Dralor - 65
9 Vortyx - 65
9 duilio9z - 65
9 CloudsShinji - 65
9 Sins Tox1n - 65
9 Bejita San - 65

Yesterday was a quiet day only 2 fell off the top 10 which were SecondBest and Topdogg48067. Also only 54.94% of the people got this match right

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 61/68 LoZ vs. Tetris

Well, only 54% predicted Cloud reaching the Divisional Finals in 2002 (about the same percentage that predicted Cloud to win the Division in 2003, IIRC O_O). 48% thought Alucard, Duke Nukem, Pikachu, etc. would make it there. At at least one of SMB3's opponents was decent competition up to that point.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

the match up I that is going to give me problems this round is LoZ: LttP vs. FFVI. I had FFVI winning well I thought if two square games got nominated enough to take the 1st and 2nd seed wouldn't they be very strong and LttP got a 6th seed behind Super Metroid and SMW sure it suffered from "Ya it will be there so I'll nominate something else". So do you think that FFVI has a chance or will this be the begining of the end?
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 61/68 LoZ vs. Tetris

Seeing LttP performance, FFVI has no chance.
---
Points in the SpC2K4: 61/68
Next pick: The Legend of Zelda

C'mon, this is insane. This topic will get to 500 in less than 48 hours. If that's the pace Solar will need to churn out topics, he just might give up entirely. ;)

As far as today's match goes, Tetris is doing a little better than I thought it would, but LoZ is owning the morning vote, hardcore.

Nothing of major interest for me in what's been discussed tonight, except for one point... KH's power waning? You all could be on to something good... and since I doubt AC will have any sort of effect before release, if that idea turns out to be true, Link will dominate once again - but Cloud and Sephiroth may remain some distance above the second tiers.

And another thing - Sunshine inflating Mario's score against Cloud? That wouldn't make much sense... I mean, if Cloud was actually as powerful both years, why was Sephiroth lightyears behind Link, even NOT taking into account the mysterious anomalies from 2002 Westerners? And why would all that buzz vanish in four short days?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3