Kerrigan? That nonsense again? PC games may hold up better than expected in spring, but PC game cahracters won't do it in the summer.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Damn it, I want Kerrigan and HK-47!
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3

"Ceej has done plenty of daft things lately."

I know, I just want to be able to say in retrospect "I said only a daft man would think of such a thing".
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Vincent could do just as well as Aeris i think. his mysteriousness and looks make up for his lack of storyline prescence.

Frog might win a match from the Chrono fans, but he's a Frog. he just doesn't look that cool. he'd do about as well as Kefka, maybe slightly better.

Kerrigan is way too unrecognizable, even with Starcraft going for her. she'd do about as well as Gordon Freeman.

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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

Anybody who would have trouble getting nominated wouldn't win anyway. The only characters who deserve to be nominated this year that weren't nominated previously would have to come from new games.

Well you can matchup Kerrigan and Gordon. That should be a fair fight.
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Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

Divisions by strength? It might make a lot of the earlier rounds less predictable.

But what about the later ones? I'd be more interested in a Cloud/Link final rather than a Scorpion/Strider round 3 match.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3

That's what I was about to say. Kerrigan would be the next Gordon Freeman if she got in. Search me, I put her in my pseudo-bracket anyway. One whole seed higher than Gordon, and in the same division.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3

HK-47 might slip in, but probably at a low seed, so i don't think he/she/it would do much.

personally, i think Shadow (FF6) could make an impact. he's got Final Fantasy support and he's far cooler looking than Kefka.

also, ( i know we don't really need any more FF characters, but still...) Bahamut could win a match or two. he has universal Final Fantasy support, being in each FF game. AND he would be the first character to capitalize on the sweet looking Dragon Factor.


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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

Unlike Gordon Freeman, Kerrigan is actually known by people who play her game. Kerrigan would soundly thrash Gordon.

She wouldn't be sweet sixteen material except in the strangest of division layouts, but anyone who has played starcraft knows who kerrigan is - she would have some strength behind her.
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SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger

sammich, sc2k3 contestants weren't drawn purely from nominations. Vincent would easily get more nominations than Aiai, Frog would too Geno could easily as well. I could, if I took the time to think about it, name 3 dozen characters that could get in before Aiai on pure nominations. Why? because SOMEBODY has to be fodder. If every character was in based on noms there would have been much fewer blowouts.

That being said I can actually see Vincent being almost in the exact middle of the distance between Seph and Aeris. From FF fans he has far, far more support than Aeris.

Frog would probably be about the same difference behind Magus as Magus is behind Crono, which isn't all that much. Those two could easily make our top 13 into a top15.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Maybe HK-47 wouldn't get far but he's one of those characters that I'd just love to see in the contest, kind of like Morte (Planescape: Torment) or Minsc (Baldur's Gate).
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3

Slow, that is part of the problem. It is very difficult to spread out the exciting close matches. Cjay will need to radically change the format.

He might have three-way (or even four-way) matches per round. Or he could expand the brackets and have two polls a day (my personal choice). That is very unlikely to happen though.
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Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

"Kerrigan would soundly thrash Gordon."

The left pong paddle would soundly thrash Gordon. At east people know where the Left pong paddle is from. And I don't see Kerrigan making it to round two except in a 2k2 style layout. As in, she'd have to get an accidental 5 seed or higher to make it a round. Realistically I see her getting a 12 or 13, like all of the "popular support" characters in 2k3 like Zero, Magus, and Ramza except that she'd only do as well as the latter.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Like i said - i don't think Kerrigan would make it far, but she would not be a complete joke entry. Her seeding would likely doom her, but she wouldnt do nearly as poorly as, say, AiAi.
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SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger

I had her going against Samus in round 1 in my bracket. Think she could provide her an 80%+ blowout at long last?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3

Out of all the possible new contestants in the Summer Contest, I think Vivi would probably do the best. He has very few haters, even among those that hate Final Fantasy IX. The whole black mage look could appeal to the casual voter.
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Spring Contest 2004: 56/64
Today: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 over (4)Final Fantasy

No doubt, but that's because she'd have support before entering. I can't imagine Aiai having more than a handful of nominations though the poor dumb monkey probably got a few fans on his side much like CATS. He too could be a recurring joke entry.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

yeah, i could see Vivi winning a match or two.

and Viewtiful Joe!! he deserves at least a 15 seed!!

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Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

Yes, Vivi is a must. He's one of my noms when the time comes, no doubt. Vivi, Terry, Geno, Vincent and Frog at the very least.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Any character from FFIX deserves to live with Michael Jackson.

That is all.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3

smitelf, you're sick.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Damn, I don't know about this overlapping contest thing. Seems like too much. People are going to be very distracted. Multi-tasking, sheesh.

Ulti:
I simply don`t feel that either Samus or Mega Man can beat Mario

They certainly could, these matches would be quite difficult to predict. I'd put Mega Man as a slight favorite over Mario, he appears marginally stronger--if it weren't for the Mario cheating/vote stuffing factor. Mario vs. Samus is tougher, as there's no way to say which is stronger (unless, again, you include Mario cheating factor).

or that Magus could beat Solid Snake

I'd put Snake as the favorite, but such a result shouldn't surprise anyone. Crono beat Snake with room to spare, why couldn't Magus edge by him?

You`re not lying. The people who use the ranking as a guideline will be screwed in a lot of close matches.

Yes, just like I was sooo screwed in Cloud vs. Link and Cloud vs. Sephiroth :o)

(actually, I was screwed in Cloud vs. Sephiroth because I picked Sephiroth simply because I wanted him to win; I did explicity state that my actual prediction would've been Cloud with 52% and that I was very confident in that, since that's what was implied by extrapolation, but I just couldn't do that)

Seriously dude. Sephiroth vs. Mario was supposed to be a very close matche. Predictions were very tight. The board was supposed to go nuts, there was supposed to be late-match vote stuffing, etc.

Well, the extrapolated method predicted Sephiroth would destroy Mario with 60%. Even I couldn't bring myself to pick Sephiroth with more than 56%, because no one was going that high. MMX ened up going with 56% as well and other than him, no had had Sephiroth with more than 53.92%. So the "common sense" of every single predictor--which defied real common sense, actually, since an easy victory for Sephiroth should have been obvious--was totally off, while the extrapolated method had no difficulty with this match at all.

Truly close matches (matches within a few hundred votes) are 50/50 anyway, there's no way to tell who'll win unless you're the one doing the interference.

Slowflake:
Man, the extrapolated rankings are going to be fun to look at, but they'll be ****ed over like there's no tomorrow. An eventual SpC2K5 would be much harder to predict than SC2K3 for us

Agreed, the factors that cause unreliability of results appear to be much more common in the Spring Contest.

Chichiri:
cn will defend them to his death

Heh ;) They obviously have weaknesses, but that's the thing: we know very well what the weaknesses are (at least so far, though new weaknesses can always pop up), and can usually try to adjust to them with whatever logic we care to use. So what in the world is the point of dissing them?

Vincent and Frog, if they get in.

Good ones. Anybody from Final Fantasy VII would be strong, but Vincent would probably be stronger than Aeris by a good bit I think. And you know how I feel about Frog ;)

Add Shadow from Final Fantasy VI and possibly Ryu Hayabusa to that. Ryu is especially interesting because I don't see how he could be below Master Chief level, given his appeal to the old school Nintendo fanbase.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

My 16 Seedings

1. FF7
2. Zelda Ocarina
3. Chrono Trigger
4. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. Final Fantasy 3/6
6. LTTP
7. Legend of Zelda
8. Final Fantasy X
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee
10. Wind Waker
11. Metal Gear Solid
12. Starcraft
13. Super Mario World
14. Final Fantasy
15. Goldeneye
16. Tetris

Ooh...Ceej is the Man! Summer nominations soon! My 10 are ready if it is 10 like last year. Commoners like Cloud and Link need not apply, cause it is up to nonfanboy gamers like me to stand up for the underappreciated characters out there! I will defend my 10 in the commentary between the contests...hey, I need something to fill those days between the contests!

And stats from the get-go cause of all the page reformatting. Excellent. Yep should be a nice fun summer here at GameFAQ's lol

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SCK24: 56/64 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

Newer characters are bound to have less popularity due to the fact that they haven't been around enough to get the attention necessary to compete. Viewtiful Joe is a possibility, but I think he'll get slaughtered if he does get in.

Personally, I'd love to see Clank get in. I know for sure that he's more popular than Ratchet. He could be a decent 13 seed, maybe even a 12. Either him or Daxter. The only problem is that they might suffer from the sidekick syndrome like Tails does, even though their names are in the titles of their respective games. They pretty much go hand-in-hand with their partners, so the effect might not be as drastic on them.
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Spring Contest 2004: 56/64
Today: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 over (4)Final Fantasy

"but Vincent would probably be stronger than Aeris by a good bit I think."

You're damn right!

Though... I thought you might comment on my specualation. Circumstantial as it may be its not that far out there, is it?

"Personally, I'd love to see Clank get in. I know for sure that he's more popular than Ratchet."

Huh?

Well, if we gotta see more platformer heroes how about Banjo? He actually, you know, did something to deserve a spot. Jak and Daxter 2 was good, I hear, but I KNOW Banjo Kazooie was pretty good (and the last platformer I liked, though I didn't play CBFD). If Ratchet can't do well, though, then Clank need not apply.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Well, last year I was wondering how Ratchet got into the contest over Clank because he wasn't very likeable in the first game. He was better in Going Commando, but I still think Clank would be more popular.

I think Banjo would perform similar to Crash because he's sort of faded away since the N64 days.
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Spring Contest 2004: 56/64
Today: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 over (4)Final Fantasy

everyone who thinks Zelda is even in the Top 5 out of the games left is either a Zelda fanboy or is buying way too much into the Zelda hype on this board.

Its not farfetched at all to believe that LoZ is stronger than SMB3. In fact, after today I`m far from confident about the match if LoZ can manage to do very good against Tetris. This Zelda "hype" also has good reason behind it, especially if every Zelda from here on out royally hands the opponents its ass.

i still stand by my statement that Zelda 1 will not beat SMB3.

I`m iffy on this now. I`m still thinking SMB3 will slightly budge out LoZ, but no where near the confidence level I was prior.

Final Fantasy is a much tougher opponent than Tetris.

I tend to think that as well.

it has just as big of a franchise name behind it as Zelda 1. the original Zelda will only do a little better than the original Final Fantasy. maybe as high as 45%, but that's it.

Wait what? I expect LoZ to get at least 45% if not win. Today when SMB3 dropped below 60% it didn`t exactly jump out and spell terrific things for SMB3. LoZ is not just going to roll over and die.

so don't wet yourself with glee tomorrow when Zelda beats Tetris by much more than SMB3 wins by today.

Everyone pretty much expects such.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

As for new characters, Frog, Vincent, Vivi are definitely some of the big ones. Kerrigan is nothing more than a fill in for someone who could do better... like Peach! =P
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Well, cyko already mentioned Shadow. Damn me and my slow posting.

cyko:
Frog might win a match from the Chrono fans, but he's a Frog. he just doesn't look that cool. he'd do about as well as Kefka, maybe slightly better.

Blasphemer, begone from my sight!!

KEFKA!? Frog would do a lot better than Kefka :(

Yeah, he's a frog, but he's also a knight. His image could hurt him, but the sword and armor should put him above Lettuce Kefka level, I would think.

Chichiri:
Why? because SOMEBODY has to be fodder. If every character was in based on noms there would have been much fewer blowouts

And I think most of us would be all for that. Make for a more fun contest. Blowouts can be fun, but there would still be blowouts even without insertion of losers into the low seeds, and if you have more deserving characters in there that gets everyone more excited. Some RPG character with a cult fanbase might get blown out, but at least he'd have people talking.

That being said I can actually see Vincent being almost in the exact middle of the distance between Seph and Aeris. From FF fans he has far, far more support than Aeris.

Agreed. There's also the fact that female characters just don't seem as strong as male ones.

Frog would probably be about the same difference behind Magus as Magus is behind Crono, which isn't all that much

That's what I've always said too, though he might have some more downside than that. I don't think so though.

Though... I thought you might comment on my specualation. Circumstantial as it may be its not that far out there, is it?

Um yeah, I posted before reading that. Halfway between Aeries and Sephiroth seems too high though--that'd put him at Mario level!

As others have said, Vivi would probably be a fair competitor too.

And I think Kerrigan would be stronger than Gordon Freeman. I think her character's appearance has much more appeal.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Match #48 Review:

SSBM performance here is...a little lackluster, to be honest. As of now, I'd say that its third-round match against FFX could easily go either way.

Match #50 Preview:

Yes, it's the third round, and we're STILL not through all of the yawners yet.

On a side note, there's only two weeks left in the contest. Yowza.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

As far as brand new characters go, give me CHUN-LI dang it, get Ken outta here! I'm sure she's closer to Ryu than Ken is.

"that'd put him at Mario level!"

You think I don't know that? ;)
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Yeah, he's a frog, but he's also a knight. His image could hurt him, but the sword and armor should put him above Lettuce Kefka level, I would think.

well, it is true, creativename, that Frog would be a lot easier to recognize Frog than Kefka. but Frog has a short, stubby sword. >_>

---
Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

like Peach!

Oooh, good one. I could see her being a force. She probably wouldn't be as close to Mario as Zelda is to Link, since of course the freakin' series is named after Zelda. She'd be a worthy 2nd rounder though I think.

Like others have said, Viewtiful Joe is a good one too.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

"SSBM performance here is...a little lackluster, to be honest."

Proof that random passersby tend to underestimate SSBM. It's opponent DID sell more copies than any other PS2 game, after all... except possibly its immeadiate predecessor. I think Starcraft had the craziest 4 pack and SSBM really had the tightest 4 pack.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Creative, what do you think about Protoman? I certainly wouldn't classify him as a joke character but I don't know how far he'll go.
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Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

Who Cares?:
I'm sure she's closer to Ryu than Ken is.

I don't know about that.

cyko:
but Frog has a short, stubby sword. >_>

You...you would dare to speak of the Masamune thus?

Thou dost presume too much, friend.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I can't speak for cn, but I see proto man doing well as a mid-tier character. I honestly can't imagine him being as close to MM as Zero is.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Creative, what do you think about Protoman? I certainly wouldn't classify him as a joke character but I don't know how far he'll go

Not a clue. Zero was strong, but I think he's much more known than Protoman. I'm not too familiar with Mega Man or his fanbase though, better to ask someone else.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I think Peach would be about a good second round character as well, unless she went up against someone who wasn`t exactly strong then I could see her possibly cracking the Sweet 16. =)

Viewtiful Joe is one of the musts if you ask me, definitely a good character.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Wow this topic is moving fast today.

First stats, now all the talk about nominations has dominated this topic. Nomination talk is fun as hell :)

With two different contests to talk about, maybe we should split the discussion? I would be against that though, as it would hurt continuity. But it might be worth getting feedback on.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Looking at the past few characters in the last contest at the second round I`d say there would be a good number of them Peach could beat.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

Chichiri, I don't think it's fair to classify him a random passerby, he's been doing that that the duration of the contest, and let Tetris attest tomorrow that sales don't mean too much. I really like SSBM, but I'm worried for it, but I guess that's really more due to possible Vice City underestimating than SSBM underestimating. I just don't know if FFX would lose to Vice City.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb

Not a clue. Zero was strong, but I think he's much more known than Protoman.

Zero probably is more popular than Protoman. After all, his fanbase was large enough for him to get his own series and enter the roster of SNK vs. Capcom.

---
The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

Nomination talk is fun as hell :)

It definitely is. =)
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Dodongo Dislikes Smoke - Old Man; The Legend of Zelda

nah, ProtoMan wasn't nearly as involved in the series as Zero was in the X series. his old, 8-Bit look wouldn't do him any favors either. Zero, on the other hand, really did have one of the coolest pictures of the last contest.

now, Dr. Wily, he might be able to put up a fight. he could definitely whoop ProtoMan, but i really don't think he'd be much of a contest force.

---
Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671

I think VJ may even get in to a fodder spot even if he doesn't have the noms to back him. He's a good new cahracter, and Ceej is always on the look out for characters like that. I'm sure he knows within reason how well they will do and so obviously VJ won't get a higher seed than he deserves, but he COULD get a spot he doesn't necessarily deserve.

And yes, while seeing strogner competition makes the matches more exciting, there is more than the fun of blowouts to worry about. Ceej still wants to distribute some spots to character that wouldn't otherwise make it but deserve to just to make the minority (not ethnic minorities) groups happy.

Also, while this would ruin the contest it'd still be better than brackets based on company...

Heroes
Heroines
Villains
Supporting Characters

Yes, the two middle groups would obviously be dominated by Samus and Sephiroth respectively, but it's still better than company based brackets AND it's quirky.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

It is fair because he stops in, makes one post at a semi-random time, then disappears until the next day. I have never seen him actually stop to discuss anything, and if I disagreed with anything he said I highly doubt he'd ever even see it as he's always gone right after posting and doesn't come back til the next day. I doubt he reads anything between his own posts, but if he does now is a darn fine time to speak up.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

The only problem I could see with that is, except for Samus and Sephiroth, all of the strongest characters would be stacked in the Heroes division. It would be so loaded it's not even funny.
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Spring Contest 2004: 56/64
Today: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 over (4)Final Fantasy