Spring 2004 Contest
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Contest Stats & Discussion - Part 18
From: smitelf
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:22:39 PM | Message Detail
Now that we're into the sweet 16, it would be a good time to ask who
you guys think will win and whether your opinion on that subject is the
same as it was when you made up your brackets.
I still think FFVII will end up winning it all, same as in my bracket.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
I still think FFVII will end up winning it all, same as in my bracket.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: Fett0001
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:32:56 PM | Message Detail
I'm just as undecided as i was when i started, split between OoT, FF7, &LttP. But I'm Pulling for Starcraft.
---
Rank: tied for 6056th
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Rank: tied for 6056th
From: Who Cares?
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:37:17 PM | Message Detail
Now that we're into the sweet 16, it would be a good time to ask who
you guys think will win and whether your opinion on that subject is the
same as it was when you made up your brackets.
For me, FF7 is still the best bet. Everyone has gone wild about the Zeldas, but FF7 has yet to perform in a way that would make me bet against it. Despite the performances of the other FF games, this is the only one that really matters on this site. It's looking more & more like OoT is the only game that could stop it, cuz it ain't losing to the 128 winner, & it may be up to LoZ or LttP to stop it in the final.
My bracket has SMB3 over FF7, but I picked it simply because it's my favorite game of all-time & would rather lose my bracket going down with my favorite. :)
For me, FF7 is still the best bet. Everyone has gone wild about the Zeldas, but FF7 has yet to perform in a way that would make me bet against it. Despite the performances of the other FF games, this is the only one that really matters on this site. It's looking more & more like OoT is the only game that could stop it, cuz it ain't losing to the 128 winner, & it may be up to LoZ or LttP to stop it in the final.
My bracket has SMB3 over FF7, but I picked it simply because it's my favorite game of all-time & would rather lose my bracket going down with my favorite. :)
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:39:33 PM | Message Detail
From the start, Ocarina of Time. A close second goes to ALttP.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: creativename
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:40:00 PM | Message Detail
I think that The Legend of Zelda is looking even better with SMB3
getting about 60% on Final Fantasy. That should be a great match.
There's gonna be a civil war between the "know your roots" people :)
Chrono Trigger vs. SMW is difficult to call.
A Link to the Past is the clear favorite, it might break 60% but I wouldn't think so.
Final Fantasy VII and Ocarina of Time are gimmies.
And then you have the two big 128 matches.
My predictions for the iffy matches are Chrono Trigger, Wind Waker, and Final Fantasy X.
I think the championship is still a toss-up between Final Fantasy VII and Ocarina of Time. My bracket has Final Fantasy VII. My prediction for the other finalist is now A Link to the Past though, but I'll still be rooting for Chrono Trigger. Not like I'd mind A Link to the Past, I love that game.
Strange that we're actually pretty close to the end now. It's gonna be sad when the contest is over, though not nearly as bad as last year since the next one is so soon.
I'll devote myself to recruiting Frog nominations afterwards :) The nomination process is the one thing where I think the board can actually make a difference.
---
smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.
Chrono Trigger vs. SMW is difficult to call.
A Link to the Past is the clear favorite, it might break 60% but I wouldn't think so.
Final Fantasy VII and Ocarina of Time are gimmies.
And then you have the two big 128 matches.
My predictions for the iffy matches are Chrono Trigger, Wind Waker, and Final Fantasy X.
I think the championship is still a toss-up between Final Fantasy VII and Ocarina of Time. My bracket has Final Fantasy VII. My prediction for the other finalist is now A Link to the Past though, but I'll still be rooting for Chrono Trigger. Not like I'd mind A Link to the Past, I love that game.
Strange that we're actually pretty close to the end now. It's gonna be sad when the contest is over, though not nearly as bad as last year since the next one is so soon.
I'll devote myself to recruiting Frog nominations afterwards :) The nomination process is the one thing where I think the board can actually make a difference.
---
smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.
From: BeTheMan
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:44:11 PM | Message Detail
I'm surprised that people are still so willing to discount Starcraft as
a threat to Wind Waker. Unlike the other Zelda games, Wind Waker hasn't
exactly been drawing voters to the polls...hell, even with the tighter
matchups, Starcraft has logged more votes than Wind Waker in BOTH
rounds.
And yes, I'm aware that total votes cast plays a big part in that, but I think that's the biggest advantage that SC has heading into the next round: in a close matchup, it has the ability to draw outside visitors to the site that no game left in this contest can compete with.
The Halo-SC matchup drew by far the most votes of any matchup to date in this contest, not because it was that damn cool, but because of an influx of outside voters that showed up to keep SC alive in the contest...and had Kingdom Hearts drawn a bigger backing from the regular gamefaqs crowd, I have no doubt that SC's vote totals would have risen accordingly.
Starcraft may very well be the most dangerous game in this contest because of the outside vote...and I think that it has an excellent chance of escaping the non-powerhouse 128-bit division.
---
Spring 2004 Contest: 57/64
Next Match (Bracket): Super Mario Brothers 3 over Final Fantasy
And yes, I'm aware that total votes cast plays a big part in that, but I think that's the biggest advantage that SC has heading into the next round: in a close matchup, it has the ability to draw outside visitors to the site that no game left in this contest can compete with.
The Halo-SC matchup drew by far the most votes of any matchup to date in this contest, not because it was that damn cool, but because of an influx of outside voters that showed up to keep SC alive in the contest...and had Kingdom Hearts drawn a bigger backing from the regular gamefaqs crowd, I have no doubt that SC's vote totals would have risen accordingly.
Starcraft may very well be the most dangerous game in this contest because of the outside vote...and I think that it has an excellent chance of escaping the non-powerhouse 128-bit division.
---
Spring 2004 Contest: 57/64
Next Match (Bracket): Super Mario Brothers 3 over Final Fantasy
From: FastFalcon05
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:48:28 PM | Message Detail
I still maintain that for SC to even have been somewhat of a threat it
would have needed much bigger numbers on Halo and KH. It's run ends
next round.
or at least it better...
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
or at least it better...
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:50:21 PM | Message Detail
I would have never said this before, but due to recent activity I have
to say I`m going to take great pleasure in seeing StarCraft go out next
round.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 5/23/2004 2:53:21 PM | Message Detail
I concur; in fact that's just common sense. For StarCraft to triumph
over Wind Waker, that means that not only StarCraft, but Halo as well,
is as strong or stronger than WW. Can't buy that.
As for champion? Well, going into the contest, the hype was that FF7 vs. OoT would be the effective finals. And to be perfectly honest, nothing we've seen should shake our faith in that. I personally went with FF7, and I'm still as confident in it as any other potential champ.
As for champion? Well, going into the contest, the hype was that FF7 vs. OoT would be the effective finals. And to be perfectly honest, nothing we've seen should shake our faith in that. I personally went with FF7, and I'm still as confident in it as any other potential champ.
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:17:38 PM | Message Detail
Not only that, but Soul Calibur beating Metroid Prime? No way!
As for Smitelf's question, I'll be honest with you, I'd put an all-Zelda Final 4. Rest is obvious, LttP and OoT in the finals, LttP wins.
An interesting question that got its own topic last summer... how would you rank the 16 games left in order of hypothetical strength? It'd go like this for me:
1. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy 7
3. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Legend of Zelda
6. Super Mario Bros. 3
7. Super Mario World
8. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
9. Final Fantasy 10
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. Super Smash Bros. Melee
12. Final Fantasy 6
13. Goldeneye
14. Starcraft
15. Final Fantasy
16. Tetris
Hmm, that's a bit on the tough side. MGS especially is a pain in the ass to rank.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
As for Smitelf's question, I'll be honest with you, I'd put an all-Zelda Final 4. Rest is obvious, LttP and OoT in the finals, LttP wins.
An interesting question that got its own topic last summer... how would you rank the 16 games left in order of hypothetical strength? It'd go like this for me:
1. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy 7
3. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Legend of Zelda
6. Super Mario Bros. 3
7. Super Mario World
8. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
9. Final Fantasy 10
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. Super Smash Bros. Melee
12. Final Fantasy 6
13. Goldeneye
14. Starcraft
15. Final Fantasy
16. Tetris
Hmm, that's a bit on the tough side. MGS especially is a pain in the ass to rank.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:18:13 PM | Message Detail
Oops, "LttP wins" should read "OoT wins."
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:20:31 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Just Some Person
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:20:56 PM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger is going to be upset by SMB. Crono will be upset by Mario, again.
I have FF7 over OoT.
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The above post is purely fictitious. Any resemblance to other posts, real or fake, is accidental, and is not endorsed by this screenname.
I have FF7 over OoT.
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The above post is purely fictitious. Any resemblance to other posts, real or fake, is accidental, and is not endorsed by this screenname.
From: smitelf
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:22:51 PM | Message Detail
Slow, you...put SSBM and FFX ahead of FFVI.
You phail at life. Have you not yet learned that almost any game from the other divisions could win Division 128 hands down?
1. Final Fantasy 7
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Chrono Trigger
4. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Legend of Zelda
7. Final Fantasy 6
8. Super Mario World
9. Metal Gear Solid
10. Final Fantasy 10
11. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
12. Super Smash Bros. Melee
13. Final Fantasy
14. Starcraft
15. Goldeneye
16. Tetris
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
You phail at life. Have you not yet learned that almost any game from the other divisions could win Division 128 hands down?
1. Final Fantasy 7
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Chrono Trigger
4. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Legend of Zelda
7. Final Fantasy 6
8. Super Mario World
9. Metal Gear Solid
10. Final Fantasy 10
11. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
12. Super Smash Bros. Melee
13. Final Fantasy
14. Starcraft
15. Goldeneye
16. Tetris
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:26:08 PM | Message Detail
Actually, I think it goes like this:
1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
3. Final Fantasy VII
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. The Legend of Zelda
7. Super Mario World
8. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee
11. Final Fantasy VI
12. Metal Gear Solid
13. StarCraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. GoldenEye
16. Tetris
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
3. Final Fantasy VII
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. The Legend of Zelda
7. Super Mario World
8. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee
11. Final Fantasy VI
12. Metal Gear Solid
13. StarCraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. GoldenEye
16. Tetris
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: smitelf
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:29:21 PM | Message Detail
Ah, you humorous Zelda fanboys. Can't wait for reality to strike.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:53:01 PM | Message Detail
What are you guys seeing LoZ get tomorrow against Tetris? I predicted 72.40%.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: smitelf
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:55:29 PM | Message Detail
I'm hoping for something around 70-73%ish...nothing too embarrassing for the best game in this division (that being Tetris).
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: UltimaterializerX
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:56:27 PM | Message Detail
Bias against quantitative techniques is something very common among
people that don't have experience or training in math, but not
something I would expect in a stats thread.
I have math training. The system is very reliable when you`re talking characters that have an obvious gap between them. My only issue comes with the characters that are close together. I simply don`t feel that either Samus or Mega Man can beat Mario, that Sephiroth can beat either Link or Cloud, or that Magus could beat Solid Snake.
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
I have math training. The system is very reliable when you`re talking characters that have an obvious gap between them. My only issue comes with the characters that are close together. I simply don`t feel that either Samus or Mega Man can beat Mario, that Sephiroth can beat either Link or Cloud, or that Magus could beat Solid Snake.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 3:58:58 PM | Message Detail
I simply don`t feel that either Samus or Mega Man can beat Mario,
that Sephiroth can beat either Link or Cloud, or that Magus could beat
Solid Snake.
I think the exact same.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
I think the exact same.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: UltimaterializerX
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:06:07 PM | Message Detail
1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
1. Final Fantasy 7
3. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
3. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. The Legend of Zelda
7. Final Fantasy 6
8. Super Mario World
9. Metal Gear Solid
10. Super Smash Brothers Melee
11. Final Fantasy 10
12. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
13. StarCraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. Tetris
16. Goldeneye
I only glanced at the list. I`m sure I`d switch it a million times if I gave more thought to it, especially on Metal Gear Solid. But I`ve always felt that FFT is the second strongest Final Fantasy title on this site thanks to spending years on those boards. We are a fanatical breed who has been waiting to be included in the numbered series during one of those favorite FF polls. We would finish second, I promise. So by that logic, Metal Gear Solid must be equal to FFT in strength, so I put it where I did.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
1. Final Fantasy 7
3. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
3. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. The Legend of Zelda
7. Final Fantasy 6
8. Super Mario World
9. Metal Gear Solid
10. Super Smash Brothers Melee
11. Final Fantasy 10
12. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
13. StarCraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. Tetris
16. Goldeneye
I only glanced at the list. I`m sure I`d switch it a million times if I gave more thought to it, especially on Metal Gear Solid. But I`ve always felt that FFT is the second strongest Final Fantasy title on this site thanks to spending years on those boards. We are a fanatical breed who has been waiting to be included in the numbered series during one of those favorite FF polls. We would finish second, I promise. So by that logic, Metal Gear Solid must be equal to FFT in strength, so I put it where I did.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:16:55 PM | Message Detail
I agree with Ulti. Sonic is barely ahead of Magus, but I'd seriously consider having Magus win, for example.
And yes, I'm aware I put FF10 ahead of FF6, but the middle of that list is hell to put down anyway, so we'd have a virtual six-way dance or something. Only thing that made me put FF10 ahead was my thinking that SSBM could beat FF6 but not FF10. And MGS is... just there in between, because I have no idea where the heck I'd rank it.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
And yes, I'm aware I put FF10 ahead of FF6, but the middle of that list is hell to put down anyway, so we'd have a virtual six-way dance or something. Only thing that made me put FF10 ahead was my thinking that SSBM could beat FF6 but not FF10. And MGS is... just there in between, because I have no idea where the heck I'd rank it.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:18:15 PM | Message Detail
Only thing that made me put FF10 ahead was my thinking that SSBM could beat FF6 but not FF10.
Wow. That`s the exact same reason I have FFX ahead of FFVI, heh.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
Wow. That`s the exact same reason I have FFX ahead of FFVI, heh.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: Haste2
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:18:55 PM | Message Detail
Poor Tetris, being last on everyone's lists. ;_; I won't even bother
ranking them...everything seems screwed up, no matter how I look at it.
I'm starting to lose faith in extrapolated standings when it comes to
the Spring Contest.
Okay, now that we know that Final Fantasy can be powerful I think I feel a bit more secure about Chrono Trigger over Super Mario World. It's funny how you rank Super Mario Bros. 3 over Super Mario World, though...could Super Mario World be more popular? SMB3 gets 60% against Final Fantasy... SMW gets 70% against Sonic 2...
In any case, FFVI should get closer to Zelda: LttP than I previously thought. I don't think FFVI could do worse than FF percentage-wise, this round. Could FFVI even have a shot at winning? Let's think about this:
SMB3 received 78% against Metroid, and 60% against Final Fantasy Fantasy. SMB3 should get 76% against Contra. Now, Metroid should beat Contra with at least 60% (probably more). That means SMB3 would receive 70% at the MOST against Metroid without SFF. Probably more like 65%, though. With that in mind, knock down LttP's percentage about 6 points if you cancel out SFF, and it gets 68% against Super Metroid, in the worst possible scenario. I'd guestimate 64%. Of course, this is if you trust that extrapolation method, and assuming the only "factor" is SFF.
Still not quite enough to make me think FFVI would get much further than 45%, but you never know.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Okay, now that we know that Final Fantasy can be powerful I think I feel a bit more secure about Chrono Trigger over Super Mario World. It's funny how you rank Super Mario Bros. 3 over Super Mario World, though...could Super Mario World be more popular? SMB3 gets 60% against Final Fantasy... SMW gets 70% against Sonic 2...
In any case, FFVI should get closer to Zelda: LttP than I previously thought. I don't think FFVI could do worse than FF percentage-wise, this round. Could FFVI even have a shot at winning? Let's think about this:
SMB3 received 78% against Metroid, and 60% against Final Fantasy Fantasy. SMB3 should get 76% against Contra. Now, Metroid should beat Contra with at least 60% (probably more). That means SMB3 would receive 70% at the MOST against Metroid without SFF. Probably more like 65%, though. With that in mind, knock down LttP's percentage about 6 points if you cancel out SFF, and it gets 68% against Super Metroid, in the worst possible scenario. I'd guestimate 64%. Of course, this is if you trust that extrapolation method, and assuming the only "factor" is SFF.
Still not quite enough to make me think FFVI would get much further than 45%, but you never know.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:20:25 PM | Message Detail
And what about a direct encounter between the two? I really think it
could go FF10's way, personally, due to the old/new fanbase split.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: Who Cares?
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:23:26 PM | Message Detail
could Super Mario World be more popular? SMB3 gets 60% against Final Fantasy... SMW gets 70% against Sonic 2...
I could never believe that since on this site: FF series >> Sonic series!
I could never believe that since on this site: FF series >> Sonic series!
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:26:26 PM | Message Detail
But we're talking FF1 here. Sonic 2 is arguably Sonic's second most popular title.
I dunno... the Sonic 2/SMW result just doesn't fit in with the rest for so many reasons. If SMW beats CT, it makes SF2 look even worse, so it's not like we're any better off.
Man, the extrapolated rankings are going to be fun to look at, but they'll be ****ed over like there's no tomorrow. An eventual SpC2K5 would be much harder to predict than SC2K3 for us.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
I dunno... the Sonic 2/SMW result just doesn't fit in with the rest for so many reasons. If SMW beats CT, it makes SF2 look even worse, so it's not like we're any better off.
Man, the extrapolated rankings are going to be fun to look at, but they'll be ****ed over like there's no tomorrow. An eventual SpC2K5 would be much harder to predict than SC2K3 for us.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: UltimaterializerX
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:31:35 PM | Message Detail
You`re not lying. The people who use the ranking as a guideline will be screwed in a lot of close matches.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:35:52 PM | Message Detail
Ooooo, check out the main page =) Apparently the code CJayC used to
give us our stats this contest can be recycled, meaning stats from day
one in future contets. It`s about damned time, that`s for sure.
And will we be able to submit our brackets for the Summer Contest before the Spring Contest is even over? Early June is not far off at all.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
And will we be able to submit our brackets for the Summer Contest before the Spring Contest is even over? Early June is not far off at all.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: King Morgoth
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:36:58 PM | Message Detail
Hypothetical strength heh?
1. Final Fantasy 7
2. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Final Fantasy 6
7. Super Mario World
8. StarCraft
9. Super Smash Brothers Melee
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
12. Final Fantasy 10
13. The Legend of Zelda
14. Goldeneye
15. Final Fantasy
16. Tetris
Shoot me for having the whole division 128 @ 8-12, with Starcraft at #8...
I still believe that these four games could beat the 4 older games under them, simply because of voters aren't that old.
And as for Starcraft at #8, it says hypothetical strength, and Starcraft technically has almost infinite hypothetical strength with battle.net
---
Match#48 - 1st in Spread Betting, 2nd in Betting, 2nd in the Oracle, T-216th (58pts)
1. Final Fantasy 7
2. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Final Fantasy 6
7. Super Mario World
8. StarCraft
9. Super Smash Brothers Melee
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
12. Final Fantasy 10
13. The Legend of Zelda
14. Goldeneye
15. Final Fantasy
16. Tetris
Shoot me for having the whole division 128 @ 8-12, with Starcraft at #8...
I still believe that these four games could beat the 4 older games under them, simply because of voters aren't that old.
And as for Starcraft at #8, it says hypothetical strength, and Starcraft technically has almost infinite hypothetical strength with battle.net
---
Match#48 - 1st in Spread Betting, 2nd in Betting, 2nd in the Oracle, T-216th (58pts)
From: UltimaterializerX
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:46:48 PM | Message Detail
You have Zelda 1 at 13?
Wow.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
Wow.
---
Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: charmander6000
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:48:37 PM | Message Detail
I'm just doing this off the top of my head but...
Final 16 Rank
1. Final Fantasy VII
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Super Mario Bros. 3
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past
6. Final Fantasy VI
7. Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker
8. Legend of Zelda
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Super Mario World
11. Final Fantasy
12. Super Smash Bros. Melee
13. Metal Gear Solid
14. Goldeneye
15. Starcraft
16. Tetris
---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 57/64 SMB3 vs. FF
Final 16 Rank
1. Final Fantasy VII
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Super Mario Bros. 3
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past
6. Final Fantasy VI
7. Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker
8. Legend of Zelda
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Super Mario World
11. Final Fantasy
12. Super Smash Bros. Melee
13. Metal Gear Solid
14. Goldeneye
15. Starcraft
16. Tetris
---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 57/64 SMB3 vs. FF
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:54:26 PM | Message Detail
13. The Legend of Zelda
Say what?
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
Say what?
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:55:28 PM | Message Detail
Thanks for the heads up Ulti. =P
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
Ughnn... Heh heh... The wind... It is blowing... - Ganondorf
From: King Morgoth
| Posted: 5/23/2004 4:59:51 PM | Message Detail
13. The Legend of Zelda
I can see it getting beaten by any of the 12 games above...don't ask me why, it's probably that way only in my head...
---
Match#48 - 1st in Spread Betting, 2nd in Betting, 2nd in the Oracle, T-216th (58pts)
I can see it getting beaten by any of the 12 games above...don't ask me why, it's probably that way only in my head...
---
Match#48 - 1st in Spread Betting, 2nd in Betting, 2nd in the Oracle, T-216th (58pts)
From: Tai
| Posted: 5/23/2004 6:21:35 PM | Message Detail
Now that we're into the sweet 16, it would be a good time to ask who
you guys think will win and whether your opinion on that subject is the
same as it was when you made up your brackets.
I thought FF7 would win it all.
Now I think an all-Zelda Final Four can happen.
:-)
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Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.
I thought FF7 would win it all.
Now I think an all-Zelda Final Four can happen.
:-)
---
Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.
From: DomaDragoon
| Posted: 5/23/2004 6:32:56 PM | Message Detail
1. Ocarina of Time
2. FFVII
3. LoZ
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past
6. SMB3
7. Starcraft
8. FF VI
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Tetris
11. Final Fantasy
12. Super Smash Bros. Melee
13. Metal Gear Solid
14. SMW
15. Wind Waker
16. Goldeneye
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com
2. FFVII
3. LoZ
4. Chrono Trigger
5. Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past
6. SMB3
7. Starcraft
8. FF VI
9. Final Fantasy X
10. Tetris
11. Final Fantasy
12. Super Smash Bros. Melee
13. Metal Gear Solid
14. SMW
15. Wind Waker
16. Goldeneye
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com
From: ChichiriMuyo
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:04:07 PM | Message Detail
"I simply don`t feel that either Samus or Mega Man can beat Mario"
Me either.
"that Sephiroth can beat either Link or Cloud"
We know as long as nothing changes in his favor he can't, which is why (though I'd love to) I'm not picking him to win 2k4.
"or that Magus could beat Solid Snake."
Don't get me started son. It's honestly closer than any of the others you mentioned, and Magus had little voter confidence. A better seed and he could work some miracles.
So then... extrapolateds... cn will defend them to his death because he's right, they work 98% of the time, especially when there is a clear difference between the two. Yet we've seen some strange anomalies related to this method such as Samus being weaker after the release of Prime. I get the feeling that most competitors get skewed results from direct matches with Link.
Name - General Tier - % difference when directly matched with Link
Samus - Heavyweight - 2.8% lower
Mario - Heavyweight - .65% lower
Fox - Mid-Lightweight - .63% higher
Sephiroth - Heavyweight - 6.33% lower *
Scorpion - Middleweight - 1.31% higher
Jill - Middleweight - 4.57% higher
Circumstantial at best, but a deffinate trend. I left out Cloud and asterisked Seph for obvious reasons. I'd actually like to see more matches to see if that continues to hold up, because it's quite interesting to see that all of the heavyweights did better when not having to face Link directly and all non-heavies did better when facing him directly.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
Me either.
"that Sephiroth can beat either Link or Cloud"
We know as long as nothing changes in his favor he can't, which is why (though I'd love to) I'm not picking him to win 2k4.
"or that Magus could beat Solid Snake."
Don't get me started son. It's honestly closer than any of the others you mentioned, and Magus had little voter confidence. A better seed and he could work some miracles.
So then... extrapolateds... cn will defend them to his death because he's right, they work 98% of the time, especially when there is a clear difference between the two. Yet we've seen some strange anomalies related to this method such as Samus being weaker after the release of Prime. I get the feeling that most competitors get skewed results from direct matches with Link.
Name - General Tier - % difference when directly matched with Link
Samus - Heavyweight - 2.8% lower
Mario - Heavyweight - .65% lower
Fox - Mid-Lightweight - .63% higher
Sephiroth - Heavyweight - 6.33% lower *
Scorpion - Middleweight - 1.31% higher
Jill - Middleweight - 4.57% higher
Circumstantial at best, but a deffinate trend. I left out Cloud and asterisked Seph for obvious reasons. I'd actually like to see more matches to see if that continues to hold up, because it's quite interesting to see that all of the heavyweights did better when not having to face Link directly and all non-heavies did better when facing him directly.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: cyko
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:12:05 PM | Message Detail
fine, here's how i honesly rank the 16 remaining:
1. Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy 7
3. Chrono Trigger
4. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. Final Fantasy 3/6
6. LTTP
7. Super Mario World
8. Final Fantasy X
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. Wind Waker
12. Legend of Zelda
13. Starcraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. Goldeneye 007
16. Tetris
everyone who thinks Zelda is even in the Top 5 out of the games left is either a Zelda fanboy or is buying way too much into the Zelda hype on this board. i still stand by my statement that Zelda 1 will not beat SMB3. Final Fantasy is a much tougher opponent than Tetris. it has just as big of a franchise name behind it as Zelda 1. the original Zelda will only do a little better than the original Final Fantasy. maybe as high as 45%, but that's it. so don't wet yourself with glee tomorrow when Zelda beats Tetris by much more than SMB3 wins by today.
oh and don't forget that about 4000 more brackets had Final Fantasy in the Sweet 16 than those that had SMB3 in the Sweet 16 (82.01% to 72.04%). SMB3 probably only has about half of the brackets putting it in the Elite Eight. in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if more brackets actually had Final Fantasy winning this match.
---
Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671
1. Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy 7
3. Chrono Trigger
4. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. Final Fantasy 3/6
6. LTTP
7. Super Mario World
8. Final Fantasy X
9. Super Smash Bros. Melee
10. Metal Gear Solid
11. Wind Waker
12. Legend of Zelda
13. Starcraft
14. Final Fantasy
15. Goldeneye 007
16. Tetris
everyone who thinks Zelda is even in the Top 5 out of the games left is either a Zelda fanboy or is buying way too much into the Zelda hype on this board. i still stand by my statement that Zelda 1 will not beat SMB3. Final Fantasy is a much tougher opponent than Tetris. it has just as big of a franchise name behind it as Zelda 1. the original Zelda will only do a little better than the original Final Fantasy. maybe as high as 45%, but that's it. so don't wet yourself with glee tomorrow when Zelda beats Tetris by much more than SMB3 wins by today.
oh and don't forget that about 4000 more brackets had Final Fantasy in the Sweet 16 than those that had SMB3 in the Sweet 16 (82.01% to 72.04%). SMB3 probably only has about half of the brackets putting it in the Elite Eight. in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if more brackets actually had Final Fantasy winning this match.
---
Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:12:50 PM | Message Detail
And as for Starcraft at #8, it says hypothetical strength, and
Starcraft technically has almost infinite hypothetical strength with
battle.net
I said hypothetical, as in how YOU think they stack up, not potential. If we went by sheer potential, Starcraft would own all with 70+%, including FF7, OoT and LttP.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
I said hypothetical, as in how YOU think they stack up, not potential. If we went by sheer potential, Starcraft would own all with 70+%, including FF7, OoT and LttP.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:18:38 PM | Message Detail
And what, nominations and the beginning of the bracketmaking phase for SC2K4 will overlap with the end of the current contest?
I expect an overflow of buzz with two contests going on at once. I'd suggest putting the summer bracket up the minute this contest ends. But that's just me.
So, what do you think CJayC planned for this year? He said there would be something different... divisions by company? That would suck. Y halo thar SFF. The same as this spring? Y halo thar division 8 with Mario, Link, Samus, Megaman, Snake and Ganondorf, y halo thar Tidus in the Final 4.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
I expect an overflow of buzz with two contests going on at once. I'd suggest putting the summer bracket up the minute this contest ends. But that's just me.
So, what do you think CJayC planned for this year? He said there would be something different... divisions by company? That would suck. Y halo thar SFF. The same as this spring? Y halo thar division 8 with Mario, Link, Samus, Megaman, Snake and Ganondorf, y halo thar Tidus in the Final 4.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 057/064 --- Matches: 42/48 --- Rank: 00471/40940 --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: smitelf
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:20:11 PM | Message Detail
Maybe this summer won't be a character contest at all. I don't know if he explicitly said it would be...
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: ChichiriMuyo
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:22:25 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, the overlap is going to be strange. Must say though, I think I
remember him saying it wouldn't be divided by era. That being said I
can only hope if he makes strange divisions that it won't be by
company. He should know full well that such divisions would take the
fun out of the system.I remember coming up with a decent idea, but I've
forgotten it. I'll try to think of it as it was somehting that would
actually work while still being quirky.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: cyko
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:27:31 PM | Message Detail
CJayC DID say that he had some surprise in store for this years match.
i was also thinking that he might divide characters by company,
Slowflake. you could have the Nintendo division, Square Division, Sega
& Capcom & Konami Division, and Everything Else Division.
i don't think dividing the characters by era would work very well, although i suppose it is possible.
it's also possible that he might divide the characters by genre. that might be interesting. other than the RPG Division, however, i'm not sure how exactly the other three divisions would be divided.
oh, and do you think CJayC will do anything to decrease the predictability of the next contest? i mean, most of us in this topic have a pretty good idea of how most of the characters relate to each other, except for any new characers. although, i really can't think of any new characters that would make much of an impact.
---
Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671
i don't think dividing the characters by era would work very well, although i suppose it is possible.
it's also possible that he might divide the characters by genre. that might be interesting. other than the RPG Division, however, i'm not sure how exactly the other three divisions would be divided.
oh, and do you think CJayC will do anything to decrease the predictability of the next contest? i mean, most of us in this topic have a pretty good idea of how most of the characters relate to each other, except for any new characers. although, i really can't think of any new characters that would make much of an impact.
---
Current Score: 65/72 (through Zelda vs. Tetris)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14222671
From: ChichiriMuyo
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:27:51 PM | Message Detail
Not a character contest? The thought is daft. It will be a character contest.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: ChichiriMuyo
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:29:03 PM | Message Detail
"although, i really can't think of any new characters that would make much of an impact."
Vincent and Frog, if they get in.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
Vincent and Frog, if they get in.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Starion
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:30:31 PM | Message Detail
Divisions by strength? It might make a lot of the earlier rounds less predictable.
---
Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest
---
Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest
From: Leonhart4
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:30:31 PM | Message Detail
The only problem with doing it that way is that it'll limit which
characters can get in. Some who might actually receive enough
nominations to get into the contest with the way it is now could get
shafted due to this suggested setup.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 56/64
Today: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 over (4)Final Fantasy
---
Spring Contest 2004: 56/64
Today: (1)Super Mario Brothers 3 over (4)Final Fantasy
From: andaca
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:32:02 PM | Message Detail
Depending on how Starcraft manages in its next match, i could see Kerrigan having a chance of being more than cannon fodder.
---
SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger
---
SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger
From: smitelf
| Posted: 5/23/2004 7:33:56 PM | Message Detail
Not a character contest? The thought is daft. It will be a character contest.
Ceej has done plenty of daft things lately.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
Ceej has done plenty of daft things lately.
---
Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/64, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
