Okay, these topics are being 500'D in less than a week now. Cool. Keep talkin'...

Stats websites:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html
Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)
2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.
Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm
Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14127921 (Until purge)

Oracle Standings:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/oracle.html

2'D POST'D

3`D
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Heh.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

post
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Why is the letter L in the word NOEL?

I have foiled all the vets again. Now excuse me while I take torey out back and beat the hell out of him ^_^
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Married to smitelf on 5/21/04
I would like to take this moment to politely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Wow.... these things are going by fast.
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"Just heed my advice, you need a girl who's name doesnt end in .jpg"

my god...what have i done?

solar sorta, owns the board in the Tiers contest. Justice has been served.
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This is the alternate account of swirldude.

I absolutely loath post counters. There is a reason why they can be marked for it...
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Close my discussion topic before I'm done talking... I'll show that link55 punk who the boss around here is... Well, you know what I mean.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Darn, don't tell me there are going to be first post races in these topics now. We already have enough of the bozos who try to get the 500th post, and invariably get modded.

Anyway, Chichiri was trying to make a point about FF7/Xenogears... and it's a really good one. Except, the really hardcore, Xenogears-over-anything people don't abound this much, or at least not enough to make a significant impact. I could mention how many a Nintendo fan (maybe it's the majority, maybe not) very much prefers Super Metroid to LttP... that, and historically, there have never been so much as suspicions towards SFF favoring the loser so far. Of course, this can change, but for the time being that's how it pretty much is.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 055/062 --- Matches: 41/47 --- Rank: 00971/40940 --- Today's pick: SSBM

Except I'm not talking about "Xenogears over anything" people. There are plenty of people who think both are great games BUT give Xenogears the vote because they know FF7 has mainstream appeal and Xenogears doesn't yet deserves to do well against FF7. I didn't even think about my vote, it went to Xenogears not because I took the time consider which was better but because both are excellent and only one has masses of fanboys.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Wouldn't this apply for every opponent of FF7's, or any other powerhouse for that matter, except that in most cases it doesn't wear the SFF label? The mainstream vs. more obscure conflict doesn't happen only with two Square RPGs, you know. It can be a Nintendo adventure game vs. a Sega RPG, for example.

Unless I just don't understand. Again. Wouldn't surprise me.

Anyway, I'm off for tonight.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 055/062 --- Matches: 41/47 --- Rank: 00971/40940 --- Today's pick: SSBM

Except that its not necessarily a matter of bucking the mainstream altogether because they are often people who like Xenogears but might not vote for Panzer Dragoon Saga over FF7 or something. Well, either way you look at it I find it very likely that Xenogears had more of these "anti-mainstreamers" then Skies of Arcadia had. SoA just had a good deal of RPG fans backing it.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

But, as an example... I will vote for FF7 over Fallout 2. At that point it's no longer a matter of bucking the mainstream because that's not how I direct my vote. My vote is for the better game UNLESS I find them equal or nearly equal in which case I give the vote to the one who I feel needs it more. If the game is less mainstream and it is obviously losing I'll vote for it, if it's SotN I don't care what it's opponent is doing, it gets my vote (unless it had met with PDS, in which case I'd give my vote to the losing party).
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

The problem with FF VII is that unlike most powerhouses (like SMB 3 or OoT), the target audience for it doesn't support it fully. There are those who blame it for the recent mainstreamization (no, that's not a real word) of RPGs. There are those who hate the popularity of it. There are those who don't like the game itself. There are those who will vote against it because they don't want a pseudo-repeat champion.

So while SMB 3 could expect to get most of the platform crowd voting for it, FF VII would be lucky to get 80% of the RPG-playing crowd to side with it. It wins because of the mass appeal it has, which further gets it resentment. It just can't win.
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Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

But it can, and it will.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

In retrospect, I should have phrased my ending better. I wasn't saying that FF VII wasn't going to win. I was saying that it just can't catch a break from the haters.
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Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

I know :) I was just saying that because I like to remind people that FF7 isn't out of the game yet, though so many people act like it is. Sure, it's not a guarenteed winner, but it's far from a guarenteed loser.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

***POSSIBLE FFX SPOILERS***
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The extra boses in the arena. Those things are tough.

Oooooh…okay, that I will grant you. Those things are for masochists only…which includes me, as I always feel obligated to do every damn thing in those games. I curse that Chocobo racing where you have to get 0.00 to get the Sun Crest, by the way. Nothing has ever been able to frustrate me that much, even in real life.

Yeah, I sorta liked Khimari as well as Auron, but maybe that's because everybody else in this world treats him as non-existant. That and he shows character growth that I almost sorta somewhat care about.

Khimari was okay, too. I wouldn’t say that all the characters sucked aside from Auron but he was the only one that stood out from that game.

Given that the leaders of these people know a bit more of the truth and have never done anything to stop it they at least do deserve to die. They allow murderers in their ranks knowingly, and they run a corrupt system that brought them the trouble in the first place. Even if the sniveling peasants deserve a chance their leaders do not.

"The storyline? Cliched? Certainly not compared to other Final Fantasy games. The ending kicked ass. "

Except overall it doesn't have much going for it except here and there. Like the ending which is completely ruined by having a sequel.

I try to forget about FFX-2’s existence. I damn myself to hell for getting 100% on that game...

"I found the story to be the best part of the game and can’t really understand how anyone couldn’t take to it, if they can get past how crappy Tidus is as a main character. "

Well, Yuna is a crappy heroine as well. The people are all worthless people, and should have gotten the treatment Akira Kurosawa gave the peasants in The Seven Samurai. The story was good, I said that, but it wasn't great.

Yuna wasn’t so obnoxious…I’d say she’s the least bad heroine in a Final Fantasy game since VI. I’m not saying I liked her but she didn’t make me want to punch myself in the face whenever she spoke.

I can name a dozen soundtracks from Square that beat FFX's any day of the week. FFX has some exceptional tracks such as To Zanarkand, and it has some tracks like Otherworld which gave a whole new feeling that no other FF has had, but as a whole the soundtrack sucks, and most of the time I would rather listen to something else.

For the game itself it was quite suitable, I think. I rarely listen to anything from it outside of the game, except for Otherworld and the ending theme. I agree that it’s not my favorite soundtrack, though I doubt I have ten in line before it.

"The love story wasn’t all that bad aside from the “characters” having no chemistry…"

No chemistry? They couldn't have chemistry because they lack any personality or soul.

As I said, it wasn’t necessarily the love *story* so much as the “characters” involved.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/62, Next Winner: Vice City

***FFX SPOILERS***
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Original? Perhaps, but utterly worthless.

How is it worthless? It’s a very beautiful, natural sort of world visually. As for the culture itself, the government is essentially a theocracy which, while perhaps repugnant to our values, is hardly worthless to explore.

"They deserve to die for how they think? How so? You’re saying children deserve to die for being brought up in a world where Yevon is worshipped?"

Given that the leaders of these people know a bit more of the truth and have never done anything to stop it they at least do deserve to die.

Most of them already have ;)

They allow murderers in their ranks knowingly, and they run a corrupt system that brought them the trouble in the first place. Even if the sniveling peasants deserve a chance their leaders do not.

I agree with you there. They’re kind of, you know, the *bad guys*?

"By your logic, every Christian in the world deserves death."

I never said that.... I only thougth that.

They don’t deserve to die…they’re just misguided. Poor creatures.

"Well, uh, that’s what you’re for, isn’t it?"

When I'm nothing more than a dream I could give a rats ass about the people who destroyed the culture I was born from. When saving the world is expected to cost me my life and there is a better way to do it, I think they should be in support of you for doing it the right way. I don't like corrupt institutions that brainwash people. I'd have torn down every temple before killing sin if it were up to me.

Sounds like you’re pretty vehement in your hatred, at any rate. That counts for something in immersing yourself in the world, does it not? Seriously, though, who likes the Yevonites? THEY ARE THE ENEMY, YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO LIKE THEM.

"when a company has already made a game in the same vein, it would be expected that they would *improve* upon what they had done earlier"

Well, had you actually played FFX first you'd have known THAT wasn't possible. Hell, if you had played FFVIII first you'd know as much.

Silence, you.

Sometimes it's not about better or worse, it's about different. I hate FFX, you like it. Guess what, they were trying to get new people interested in it. If someone thought along the lines you did but didn't know much about earlier games then it works.

Not really, the game was another of Square’s tortures, like FFX-2. I can’t imagine anyone liking FFX-2 regardless of having played FFX first or not. It’s simply crap, same as FFTA.
I hate X, so obviously it wasn't made for me. FFTA wasn't made for you, it was made for people who like the genre and wanted something new. If you want another FFT learn to program, you'll have one in no time, really.

I like the genre and I wanted something new. I didn’t want another FFT, I wanted something that would stand on its own as an excellent game that had learned from its predecessors.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/62, Next Winner: Vice City

***POSSIBLE FFX SPOILERS***
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Ironically enough, I *am* learning how to program, but that’s neither here nor there.

I found it to be a rip off of Grandia and other great games that actually held together well. If you're insisting that FFX is more fun to play than previous FF's you're absolutely insane, If you're saying it's more fun than FFTA's then the Tactics genre isn't for you.

I’m insane, now? You’re insane, I say! It’s my favorite FF of the lot. I’ll grant you that tactical RPGs are not my favorite variety, but nor is the console RPG “genre” in general, yet I have still managed to enjoy many of them.

The sphere grid isn't wonderful, it's not even great. It's different, I'll give it that, but it had several flaws. I tend to dislike when you can make a character do anything. I hated FF7 for a long time for that, and even now I recognize the great imbalances of such a system. Enough monotonous work playing FFX and your characters become godly.

Spend enough time in almost any RPG without level bounds and you can become godly. What is your point, exactly?

"which is the most awesome idea I’ve seen a FF game for what seems like eons."

So um... since FF9 then? Okay, 9 wasn't especially revolutionary, but there is no departure greater than 8, no systems more solid than 7 or 6, and no system as fun as 5. FF has a pretty good legacy, and X isn't that special when you cna realize the difference between eons and years.

More specifically, I meant since FFV, which is my second least favorite FF game of all but which had its virtues.

"The characters were better on the whole in FFTA (not that *that* is such a great feat) but there were no standouts like Auron IMO."

One standout isn't better than an entire cast that is at least solid, especially when you consider that some FFs have had entire casts that had individuals the were almost all better than X's one standout. Name one character from FF7 that isn't more well liked than Auron and I'll tell you to pick someone other than Cait Sith. You can't do it. Every FF7 character except for CS has a bigger fanbase than Auron and they are all deserving. Hell, I don't much like FF8 as a game and I think it's cast is almost as bad as FF10's yet I know most characters in that game are more well liked or equally liked on level with Auron. Squall fangirls, Seifer fangirls, Rinoa fanthings, Trepies, Edea fans even.

Personally, I despise the cast of FFVII uniformly, minus Sephiroth, who should have won. Each member of FFVII’s cast was the embodiment of its stereotype. Bleh. Sephy is a stereotype himself but he was pulled off well as a villain. The good guys sucked horribly, IMO. There hasn’t been a good cast of characters in the numbered Final Fantasy series since FFVI.

"And the story…well, I didn’t finish the game because I found it too boring, so I’m not sure if the ending might have redeemed it, but what I saw did not impress."

Wait, were we talking about FFX or FFTA? I mean, you said boring, and the first thing I thought of was FFX because I really couldn't give a damn about anyone or anything in that game and that makes the story sooooooo boring.

I just don’t understand how you could find it boring. Linear, absolutely, but it’s the only Final Fantasy game that has managed to never bore me to tears in any place in the game since FFVI.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/62, Next Winner: Vice City

***POSSIBLE FFX SPOILERS***
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"Voting for FFTA over FFX makes no sense."

Sure it does, FFX is merely an average game that does as many things wrong as it does right, I happen to hold the things that it did wrong in higher regard than the few things it did right. FFTA is merely an average game the didn't do anythign extremely wrong or extremely right. It's averageness is felt through out it and it leaves a bad taste in many people's mouths but not as badly for me as FFXs utter failings.

At least we can agree that FFTA was average. FFX, on the other hand, had but one serious flaw, that being the cast.

FFX, as I said, had a good story... but I don't liek the character's so I really could care less about the story. It failed me. It wasn't an inventive battle system, in fact half of it felt outright stolen from better games. The system was original for a FF, sure, but again... other games have done better. The music on the whole was bland, and nothing more. Outside of battles I never felt any intensity about what was going on. I like feelings of drama, and I like to have the mood hightened and intensified. The story lent nothing to that, and even scenes that were supposed to be big and dramatic failed miserably at it. It wasn't poor writing, it was poor directing. The poor writing DID give crappy characters that I couldn't care less about though.

Not much I can say in response to “I don’t like”, really. I suppose it’s just your opinion. An insane opinion ^_^

I question a person's abilities of perception if they think on the whole FFX is a great game.

And I question your own perception if you can’t see why it’s so excellent in its series. The characters were nothing to talk about but the story was well-executed, the gameplay was awesome (and if it was stolen from better games then at least it was stolen from the right quarter) and the sphere grid made me want to cry at its beauty and simplicity.

I agree with what you’re saying about the FFVII/Xenogears match, anyway. Those who like both and *know* FFVII will rape its competition vote for Xenogears because they don’t want to see it embarrassed utterly…while people such as I were sorely tempted to run to every house in the neighborhood to vote against Xenogears to see it lose as horribly as it deserves.
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/62, Next Winner: Vice City

tag

Tetris: After defeating Galaga in a "meh" fashion, Tetris opened the eyes of many by annihilating Pong, another game that posted very good numbers in the first round. Is it going to beat LoZ? Hell no. But the chances of it going down with a bang look pretty good.

Chrono Trigger: In the first sentence of Tetris' entry, replace Galaga with Secret of Mana, Tetris with CT and Pong with SMRPG. That's pretty much it.

I would've just copied the chrono trigger part, but that doesn't really help, does it? Chrono Trigger a winner? I don't know, SMRPG got what 66 something on it? I don't think that's a real annihilation, I thought it was pretty good for SMRPG, not even one of Mario's best games, plus the 6? percent it slid from during the day vote's ride. SMW should be even closer, and then SMB3 could even win, my bracket hopes so, but I think I would have left Chrono Trigger out all together of the winner/loser list, since it didn't get a slaughter victory, but didn't disappoint either. I thought it was more of a win for SMRPG, but that's just me.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb

While I can let most of that slide, smitelf, I can't let you go on saying that it was a well crafted experience. It was solid, no doubt, but it lacked anything to make it great. The direction wasn't great. I know great directors, and if there was a director behind that game that has ever been proclaimed as being great he fell asleep even earlier in the story than I did. It was solid, it went through all the motions like it is supposed to, but that doesn't make it great.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

It was a well-crafted experience. What're you going to do, hunt me down and rip my keyboard from my computer?
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Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 59/62, Next Winner: Vice City

Yeah, and I'll beat you over the head with it too. Somebody has to knock some sense into your ass if you think FFX was anything more than mechanically well-crafted. And even then it has some moments where it falls short. It's simply not an experiece that is worth talking about. If you watch a true master director when paired with great writers and cast you will know the difference. FFX will never be mentioned in the same breath as any other great story. Not many games will be, but there are a couple of Final Fantasies that at least have a far better chance than X.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

well, all i know is that i loved the FFX's Sphere Grid. i found it a great, fun way to level up your characters whichever way you pleased. of course, eventually each character lit up the entire grid, making them all equal, but getting there was a lot of fun.

and was i the only person who loved Blitzball? i wish that was multiplayer. my team could've crushed ALL. my favorite Blitzball moment was when i managed to get SEVEN of the eight members of my team to score 20 goals in the same season. ahhhhhhh.......... so satisfying.

and btw- if SMB3 can annihilate Metal Gear and Metroid without complete bracket support, it will also crush the original Final Fantasy. SMB3 is simply unstoppable. i expect SMB3 to get near 70% of the vote. and don't get all hot and bothered when Zelda 1 scores a higher percentage against Tetris than SMB3 manages tomorrow because Tetris wouldn't even stand a chance against Final Fantasy on this site.

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Current Score: 55/62 (through FFX vs. FFTA)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14190899

oh, and FFX's story didn't really draw me in. it was okay (better than FF8), but still not nearly as engaging as nearly half of the RPGs i've played. the Sphere Grid, Blitzball, and Monster Arena kept me attached to the game; not the average story.

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Current Score: 55/62 (through FFX vs. FFTA)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14190899

Yeah, Blitzball was great, I had 12 hours of blitz under my belt before I left the first save point that allowed me to play blitz.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I am seeing SMB3 get a good 70% today too.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I haven't read this topic yet, will respond to posts from the last one first.

Chichiri:
Also, what the hell are you talking about when you say Samus performed worse in 2k3?

Um...she did. Doesn't necessarily mean she was any weaker, but she did perform somewhat worse than would've been expected. And there is no way she got stronger. The evidence completely denies that possibility. To say that she got stronger is utterly preposterous, not matter how many completely confident statements you make to the contrary.

WW has proven to be more important than Prime, so the boost for Link is bigger, but it's just as likely or even more so that Link just got stronger.

There is too much that says Link stayed almost exactly the same both years to rationally believe otherwise.

It's simply illogical to believe that Prime hurt Samus AND that WW did nothing for Link while some characters can have a minor appearance and jump 15-20 points. It doesn't make sense, and I simply wont buy it, so don't try to sell me that bull****

The only BS here is your continued distaste for the evidence.

Inconclusive? Don't you mean circumstantial?

No, I meant inconclusive.

Ulti:
I refuse to believe that Samus could have possible been weaker after Metroid Prime

She may have been about the same, but there is no possible way she was stronger. To say otherwise is in defiance of all sense, no matter how much people expected Prime to help her.

According to what, the so-called extrapolated ranking system that I put little stock into?

Oh come now :P The strengths and weaknesses and utility of the extrapolated standings are very well-document. To put "little stock" in them is beyond ridiculous. Mario and Sonic were not separated by overly much. That doesn't mean they won't be separated by much next year, but a match between them in the past would've been very tough to call.

Yet another example of why common sense > those rankings

Again...these rankings ARE common sense, they're so simple and basic. And they totally owned the non-quantitative "common sense" of the entire board last year when I used them.

Next contest many will use them as a rough guide, which will result in better predictions in general. However they will also probably tend to cluster results somehwhat closer together, which means that surprises that do occur will hurt more people. (the "expert syndrome"--experts tend to be better predictors than the masses, but they also tend to predicts things similarly to each other, and thus when surprises happen no one is more surprised than the experts)

And there will no doubt be surprises. Anyone who say "Oh, I *knew* that match was going like that because of so-and-so new factor this year, but the standings told me I wasn't even close so I adjusted my prediction! Damn them!" will be barking up the wrong tree.

Haste2:
then the people who predicted GTA:VC to be weaker than MGS2 were also owned. :P

Yes of course, see my sig :)

Slowflake:
Well, here's my take on this. LttP is a powerhouse. WW is not. Therefore, if Super and Prime are much closer to each other than LttP and WW, of course WW is going to be unable to pick up SFF votes. I thought that went by itself, but guess I have to explain everything.

That's clearly another possibility, but then you have to wonder how FFTA did so good. Unless you think FFTA was really very close to Final Fantasy X, which is possible but would not be believed by very many.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Just wondering, how do you navigate the pages for the archived topics? I don't have time to figure it out at the moment since I really need to head off to bed.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Me:
And there is no way she got stronger. The evidence completely denies that possibility. To say that she got stronger is utterly preposterous, not matter how many completely confident statements you make to the contrary.

Actually my statements here are too strong, I hereby retract them to an extent. It isn't completely unbelievable that there is some evidence to indicate she got stronger. I'll look into it in more detail when I get the chance, with more variables thrown in. I did suspect that the Squall improvement factor might be throwing off Samus, and I just remembered this now. I'll throw an additional scalar in there and see if it does anything, when I get the chance.

Heroic Mario:
I am seeing SMB3 get a good 70% today too.

<sigh> I fear you may be right. Especially if A Link to the Past:Phantasy Star IV :: The Legend of Zelda:Phantasy Star holds, which I don't think it does. I certainly hope it doesn't.

I must say, like many others, I absolutely adore the Final Fantasy match pic :D It probably won't change more than maybe a handful of votes, since anyone who would be affected would probably be voting for Final Fantasy already, but that pic is sooo kick-ass for Final Fantasy fans.

I hope Final Fantasy can break 40%. My earlier hope of it breaking 45% seems too optimistic.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I was wondering about you for a second there, saying that there was no possible proof that Samus could have actually risen. It doesn't break with common sense to assume it is possible, but the extrapolted standings do break with common sense regularly, not to mention reality from time to time. They only work as a guide, nothing more, and if you're going to say a character performed worse you will need something stronger than a loose guide.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Just wondering, how do you navigate the pages for the archived topics?

Er...you don't :( Ngamer did all the work for them and put them in a single page per topic, I haven't done jack myself. <is abashed>

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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

Personally I`d like to see 75% for SMB3 but thats a little out of reach I believe. I`ll settle for 66-70% though. =p
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Okay, that makes sense. I didn't really look closely at each page I checked, I was just looking for specific pages.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

but the extrapolted standings do break with common sense regularly, not to mention reality from time to time.

Other than SFF, KHF, and volatility of jobbers, they've never had strange results or forecast things that were wildly different from what actually happened. You have to judge models based on how well they explain things that have already occurred, and how well they can predict the future. The record of the extrapolated standings is excellent on both accounts.

They only work as a guide, nothing more, and if you're going to say a character performed worse you will need something stronger than a loose guide

They are FAR more than just a loose guide.

I cannot get over how people (not just you) can hold the extrapolated performance evaluation method in contempt, or dispagarge it in any way. Just how much does it need to prove itself to be an extremely powerful tool?

I suspect some people's bias against and resentment twoards quantitative techniques might be playing some role here when it comes to their perceptions about this method; many humans have an intrinsic dislike for mathematical/statistical prediction and evaluation tools, no matter how accurate they show themselves to be. This is something mathematicians have to deal with all the time. Or maybe it's something else entirely, I wouldn't presume to know people's motivations for their beliefs. But the extrapolated method is getting a pathetically bad rap around here, when it should basically be getting worshipped because of how powerful it has shown itself to be.

I mean, after Jill vs. Squall I totally dismissed the method as nonsense with no utility for forecasting. But we all know what caused that. The dominance of the standings in terms of predicting the latter round matches, and the low amount of volatility in character performance outside of known factors, should be evidence enough in their favor. It is a very useful, consistent, and sensible model. Obviously there will be times next contest when it will be very wrong and give very inaccurate predictions (and cause a lot of peple to be pissed at the method, see my statement about the expert syndrome above), but there will be reasons for this. To try and demean it's utility overall makes little sense.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

(the "expert syndrome"--experts tend to be better predictors than the masses, but they also tend to predicts things similarly to each other, and thus when surprises happen no one is more surprised than the experts)

Or we could just call it the Kingdom Hearts Effect. =D
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

(the "expert syndrome"--experts tend to be better predictors than the masses, but they also tend to predicts things similarly to each other, and thus when surprises happen no one is more surprised than the experts)

Maybe that's why people resent those methods. You would most likely end up with an above average result if you follow the experts. However, above average doesn't cut it in most people's mind.

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Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

Maybe that's why people resent those methods. You would most likely end up with an above average result if you follow the experts. However, above average doesn't cut it in most people's mind.

I don't get what you're trying to say. If above average doesn't cut it, then how could average or below average, which is what non-"experts" get more often than experts do? Again, expert predictions tend to be better, experts just end up more surprised by some surprises because their expectations are more clustered. For most things, they're a lot less surprsised than most others, because they knew how things would happen.

That has little to do with the extrapolated method, it's just true in general in all aspects of life. I was saying that if a number of people use the standings to base their predictions on, they will have improved scores and place higher in the Oracle standings, but in some matches they will tend to do worse all together as a group, when they would have been more spread out before.

SMB3 with about 65% now, 300+ votes in. Bah.
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smitelf is a far better forecaster of this contest than I could ever hope to be.
I am in awe of her PWNage.

I`m absolutely loving this match. ^_^ 65%+ right now and I expect it to get closer to 70% as we hit tomorrow.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
We all need to encourage people who are currently non-gamers to start playing.

Why SMB3 will blow out FF:

As I have stated a billion times, the tournament is not about fanboys, rather it's about the better game. This is the primary reason why the 128 bracket has not been, to say the least, going according to plan, because people are voting on fanboyism rather than gameplay. This is also why the 8-bit bracket was so easy to call, DH/DK excluded, because it followed the fanboy trend.

With that out of the way, we get to the games people have played. SMB3, FF, LoZ, and Tetris. And I will say this, FF was a good game in it's time, but it did not age well. SMB3 is still one of the best platformers of all time. SMB3 is just so much better a game then FF that it will rather easily beat FF. This has absolutly no impact upon the FF name, although everyone's going to be screaming about how VI can't beat LttP, VII can't beat OoT, and X can't beat SSBM, let alone WW, although the results here mean nothing to the other matches.

22.03% picked SSBM to win this round. That's insane.

LordOfDabu
A legend beyond all ages.

Holy...! Only 22% predicted SSBM to reach Round 3!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Holy crap thats incredibly low.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
We all need to encourage people who are currently non-gamers to start playing.

Sorry Haste, ironically enough I am faster. ^^

LordOfDabu
A legend beyond all ages.