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Spring 2004 Contest
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Contest Stats & Discussion - Part 17
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:01:03 PM | Message Detail
To be honest, Vice City has a damned good chance of beating SSBM. The game just wasn`t my cup of tea, that`s all. Furthermore, compare the total votes of the Vice City poll to the SSBM poll. Ouchies.

I hated Vice City, myself, but I hate how underestimated it has been on this board, as well. Seeding is deceiving, especially in this division, as we've all seen.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:02:15 PM | Message Detail
Confirmed: Halo/Starcraft indeed beats out Ganondorf/Magus. That's how much of an underdog Starcraft was.

Of course, I could explain it with that big shiny "1" next to Halo. Had it been a 6 vs. 11 match (and it should have been something like that, by all means), I think it would be a bit more evenly split.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: Jeal | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:02:16 PM | Message Detail
yes this division has been the most difficult to tell out of all of them.. the halo starcraft match was utter nonsense.. a lot of people expected prime to do better.. and everyone thought ssbm would take it.. lately its looking grim :/
---
If you're worried people are talking about you... you're probably right.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:03:09 PM | Message Detail
I'm in third! ^^

Too bad I have Prime > Wind Waker. T_T

LordOfDabu
A legend beyond all ages.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:03:10 PM | Message Detail
Ummm... the VC poll lasted two days, didn't you know?

You give that too much credibility Ulti. Remember Mario vs. Cloud. Remember it, I say.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:03:56 PM | Message Detail
Let's see how far I was off on my predicting prediction percentages. :P Wow, sweet, I was 1% off or less from the real prediction for 12(!) matches in the first round. It seems my luck of getting insanely close picks commonly was not just with the Oracle Challenge.


Super Mario Bros. 3 - 94% (+7.44%)
Metroid - 61% (-15.22%)
Contra - 57% (+.6%) w00t
Final Fantasy - 96% (-.46%) w00t
Donkey Kong - 63% (-10.22%)
Legend of Zelda - 99% (-.02%) w00t
Pong - 71% (-.71%) w00t
Tetris - 89% (+.4%) w00t
Chrono Trigger - 88% (-4.2%)
Super Mario RPG - 57% (+10.17%)
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 84% (-5.25%)
Super Mario World - 89% (-6.91%)
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 97% (-.75%) w00t
Super Metroid - 83% (-8.08%)
Doom - 60% (-1.92%)
Final Fantasy VI - 82% (+.86%) w00t
Final Fantasy VII - 97 (+.24%) w00t
Xenogears - 45% (-3.2%)
Final Fantasy Tactics - 79% (-.9%) w00t
Metal Gear Solid - 77% (-3.99%)
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 41% (-12.25%)
Goldeneye 007 - 90% (-2.61%)
Super Mario 64 - 95% (+.35%) w00t
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 89% (-7.32%)
Starcraft - 36% (+11.91%)
Kingdom Hearts - 54% (+8.55%)
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 91% (-1%) w00t
Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life - 65% (+8.03%)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance - 70% (-11.7%)
Final Fantasy X - 94% (+1.76%)
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 64% (-15.11%)
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 61% (+.31%) w00t

Heh, Soul Calibur was predicted by more to win R1 than Kingdom Hearts...remember when I said I was tempted to put the % that got that match right at below 50%, Ngamer? =P Well, that makes Soul Calibur very, very analogous to Tidus in the Summer 2003 contest. I am quite surprised that less than 50% predicted SMRPG vs. SFII correctly, though. Yep, and Starcraft has stolen new records by leaps and bounds. If it didn't have that 16 seed, it would've been predicted by more to win, guaranteed. If it beats Zelda: WW, probably 5-8% will get that correct. One of the guys in the top 50 has Starcraft winning the tourney. XP

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: irriadin | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:06:47 PM | Message Detail
I can't see Vice City beating SSBM. Only narrowly beating an Xbox game doesn't speak well of its performance. Think about it, which game would win in a direct poll: MGS2 or Vice City?
---
Current Score: 54/58
Today's Pick: Zelda over Metroid Prime
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:07:23 PM | Message Detail
Holy ****, Slowflake. I completely forgot about that.

Wow. Thanks for that. I`ve been sitting here wondering how Vice City did so well, now I know. And I even remember shooting down smitelf`s nonsense with the very argument of Vice City giving out pure **** against an Xbox title with a 48 hour poll. God, I can be stupid sometimes. Of course, Becky hates Troy. There will always be at least one person out there more blind than me =p

And yes, I`m kidding. Giddy as hell right now, but still onyl kidding around with you. We just have different tastes in art I guess. Which brings me to another point. All I know about your musical tastes is that we both like APC, albeit with different song choices. Care to give me a small list of favorites?

PS - If Tool or Metallica are on your list, we`re getting engaged tonight.
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:12:59 PM | Message Detail
I have undying respect for people who do well in a contest, yet pick their favorite game and/or an underdog to win. Much like Aeon Azuran having a perfect bracket all the way up to Squall/Luigi and picking Magus to win it all.

So on a leaderboard filled with Final Fantasy Sevens, Ocarina of Times, and Chrono Triggers, allow me to pay homage to the doomed few of us with balls. Super Mario 3, while a great game, cannot win this contest. I`m sorry, but it just can`t. It`s a shame too, because I love that game to death. Final Fantasy 6, while the best game in the series, cannot win this contest. It probably won`t even win its next match.

And of course, there is my new God, Hentai Master, and his choice of Starcraft to win it all. To those about to fall, I salute you!
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:13:28 PM | Message Detail
MGS2 vs. KOTOR, I'd say MGS2 without question.

But MGS2 vs. Vice City? I'd say Vice City. By a margin similar to what SSBM did? THAT's the question. I honestly don't know, and it could go either way.

Of course I could be way off and MGS2 could be super strong, stronger than VC... it's the only scenario in which I can possibly see SSBM making the Elite 8.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: cyko | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:13:35 PM | Message Detail
my favorite band is Tool. does that mean you'll marry me, Ulti? =P

---
Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624
From: cyko | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:19:53 PM | Message Detail
oh, and i think it will be interesting to see how well the majority of people picked compared to last year. i still have the list of how many people had the top scores in each match last year.

last year after Match 46 (60 possible points), these were the number of brackets with the top ten scores:

60 points - 0
59 points - 1
58 points - 1
57 points - 9
56 points - 39
55 points - 60
54 points - 140
53 points - 243
52 points - 407
51 points - 690
50 points - 934

it seems to me that people overall are doing better this year, but we can compare after tomorrow.

---
Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:20:44 PM | Message Detail
Agreed. So, what's the final bracket count, 40934 or 40940?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:23:46 PM | Message Detail
40940
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
From: irriadin | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:25:03 PM | Message Detail
If MGS2 is roughly = to MGS, then I'd say Vice City is doomed. Because anything Final Fantasy would destroy Vice City.

BTW, I have SSBM losing to FFX next round.
---
Current Score: 54/58
Today's Pick: Zelda over Metroid Prime
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:33:01 PM | Message Detail
Thanks. I'll calculate my rank tomorrow, I'm going to sleep soon.

A question... usually the board doesn't matter. However, with Starcraft coming out of nowhere to snag the Sweet 16 spot, people seem desperate for an upset. You think this time around the board could matter to a point where Starcraft's total against Wind Waker could be inflated, à la Sephiroth against Link?

Furthermore, could WW get so much bad blood from Starcraft losing to it that FF10 could slip through on that alone? Call it Liquid's Arm Factor, if you will. (And maybe more, if LoZ, LttP and OoT all win beforehand.)

You heard me say it a lot of times, the board doesn't matter, but never, EVER, has it been so firmly behind a competitor. Perhaps this will be the exception that will make the rule
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/40940 --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:34:32 PM | Message Detail
Firstly, congrats to Bananaquest, smitelf, and Ulti for being the first three of what will (hopefully) be many Gurus to make the Top 50 listing!

Secondly, you counted right, creative, there were 40,940 brackets entered for this Contest. For fun, I just went and inserted the current standings into my Contest Gurus spreadsheet, with some pretty interesting results. You can take the link from my sig to see for yourself, but I think I'll post some stuff here as well. Like this, for instance, which should have all us of here in this topic feeling pretty good about ourselves:

Current Average Guru Score: 52.19

Current Average Overall Score: 42.88

So, we're doing 10 points better than the average GamerFAQser. That Guru average would be enough to place us in the top 3.70% of all brackets. In addition, all but 5 Gurus are ranked in the top 7% site-wide.

Here are the full results for the current stats, with some extra info. I added the percent of people at that score, what "top percent" you are in if you have a certain score, and how many people are ranked ahead of you for any given score. It will look nicer if you see it in the spreadsheet itself, but here we go anyways.

Pts | Entrants | % | Top ?% | # Trailing

58 2 0.00% 0.00% 0
57 5 0.01% 0.02% 2
56 19 0.05% 0.06% 7
55 76 0.19% 0.25% 26
54 183 0.45% 0.70% 102
53 449 1.10% 1.79% 285
52 782 1.91% 3.70% 734
51 1289 3.15% 6.85% 1516
50 1905 4.65% 11.50% 2805
49 2294 5.60% 17.11% 4710
48 2778 6.79% 23.89% 7004
47 2833 6.92% 30.81% 9782
46 2966 7.24% 38.06% 12615
45 2901 7.09% 45.14% 15581
44 2769 6.76% 51.91% 18482
43 2553 6.24% 58.14% 21251
42 2382 5.82% 63.96% 23804
41 2220 5.42% 69.38% 26186
40 2017 4.93% 74.31% 28406
39 1778 4.34% 78.65% 30423
38 1511 3.69% 82.34% 32201
37 1362 3.33% 85.67% 33712
36 1115 2.72% 88.40% 35074
35 937 2.29% 90.68% 36189
34 831 2.03% 92.71% 37126
33 617 1.51% 94.22% 37957
32 508 1.24% 95.46% 38574
31 433 1.06% 96.52% 39082
30 323 0.79% 97.31% 39515
29 249 0.61% 97.92% 39838
28 169 0.41% 98.33% 40087
27 151 0.37% 98.70% 40256
26 115 0.28% 98.98% 40407
25 75 0.18% 99.16% 40522
24 62 0.15% 99.31% 40597
23 52 0.13% 99.44% 40659
22 45 0.11% 99.55% 40711
21 25 0.06% 99.61% 40756
20 29 0.07% 99.68% 40781
19 19 0.05% 99.73% 40810
18 12 0.03% 99.76% 40829
17 17 0.04% 99.80% 40841
16 5 0.01% 99.81% 40858
15 4 0.01% 99.82% 40863
14 4 0.01% 99.83% 40867
13 1 0.00% 99.83% 40871
12 3 0.01% 99.84% 40872
11 4 0.01% 99.85% 40875
10 4 0.01% 99.86% 40879
9 6 0.01% 99.88% 40883
8 6 0.01% 99.89% 40889
7 7 0.02% 99.91% 40895
6 13 0.03% 99.94% 40902
5 4 0.01% 99.95% 40915
4 6 0.01% 99.96% 40919
3 7 0.02% 99.98% 40925
2 3 0.01% 99.99% 40932
1 5 0.01% 100.00% 40935

So using my score of 54 pts, I know that I'm in the top 0.70% of everyone, and am halfway to the leaderboard, as I'm trailing 102 other brackets right now. I bet that's down to about 73 after Wind Waker takes this one today...

---
the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:39:32 PM | Message Detail
Did anyone else notice that the top 5 on the leaderboard all chose a different game?
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Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:41:21 PM | Message Detail
Updated the tables. Now sortable by bracket prediction %.

http://www.sc2k4.com/displaytable.php?contest=all&fields=all

irriadin:
Think about it, which game would win in a direct poll: MGS2 or Vice City?

I've stated this many times, I am very confident that MGS2 would beat Vice City.


TROY SPOILERS
.
.
smitelf:
Achilles was portrayed as the star of the show

While I really liked the movie, I agree completely with all of your other criticisms. They also messed up Ajax. However, Achilles was the main protagonist of the Iliad. The Iliad was his tale of evolving into a character who feels empathy.

Troy wasn't really the Iliad though, it was a mish-mash of the Iliad, the backstory of the Odyssey, and a little of the Aeneid thrown in (I know you know this, I'm just saying, is all). Which is a good idea, and where the Iliad came from anyway--Homer (or the series of poets who wrote it) threw a bunch of stuff together into one story, just like comic book writers tend to do. (Achilles+Ajax+etc. is similar to Superman+Batman and such) No doubt Homer (or the poets) took a lot of dramatic license himself (though his battle scene and geographic descriptions are believed to be very accurate), so you can't blame the producers of Troy too much in that aspect.

The gods were heavily missed; you can't just wipe out a huge part of the story like that. I didn't expect them to put in gods, but in hindsight, it's almost surprising. Given the Hollywood penchant for CGI, you figured they would've wanted gods in. What better opportunity for CGI fluff than a shot of Poseidon rising out of the sea? I would think they would be dying to show the epic grandeur of the Greek gods in CGI glory. Audiences would've loved it too.

They also would've loved it if Achilles was really Achilles, not just some regular guy.

Ulti:
Her husband wanted revenge, her uncle in law wanted Troy.

Here brother-in-law, you mean. Agamemnon was Menelaus' brother.

.
.
END SPOILERS

Where they went wrong is that they "dumbed it down" to make it more appealing, which is so ****ing idiotic I can't even begin to fathom it. There is no story in the history of non-religious literature that has more appeal than the Iliad and the Odyssey. For thousands of years, Kings and peasants and scholars and citizens have adored this story. What the hell kind of idiocy does it take to think that one could actually make the story more appealing to the masses?

Changing the Iliad around when adapting it into motion picture form makes sense artistically--it's natural to want to put your own spin on things--but none whatsoever financially. Troy would've made a lot more money if it was more loyal to the original texts.

Create a series of motion pictures based on the Iliad (you have to make it into 2 movies to do it justice) that make Professors of Western Lit proud, and each one would put the gross of Troy to shame.

As a Finance guy, it really disturbs me to see such an opportunity for massive amounts of profit gone to waste. <sigh>

Good thing Shrek 2 is gonna come out and show Van Helsing and Troy what a real blockbuster is. Shrek 2's low Wednesday opening only means that the weekend numbers are gonna be monstrous, I'm guessing $70+ million, though it could be anywhere from $60-$80. Shrek 2 will also have nice legs. I look for it to get around $300 domestic.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: creativename | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:44:18 PM | Message Detail
inflated, à la Sephiroth against Link?

Oh no, not this again :)

Please, stop stating like this is fact, because the evidence is marginal. It may be enough to convince you, but you shouldn't throw this around like it's definitely true. People will be inclined to believe you :)

As for Starcraft, if the Battle.net spamming plays a role, then the boards do, because there almost certainly wouldn't be spamming without the boards.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:44:34 PM | Message Detail
And yes, I`m kidding. Giddy as hell right now, but still onyl kidding around with you. We just have different tastes in art I guess. Which brings me to another point. All I know about your musical tastes is that we both like APC, albeit with different song choices. Care to give me a small list of favorites?

PS - If Tool or Metallica are on your list, we`re getting engaged tonight.


Tool would be on my list for sure (Sober > j00) and Metallica's pre-sellout stuff is tolerable. I also like R.E.M., Blind Guardian, Iced Earth, Nightwish, and Sonata Arctica (all power/melodic metal, minus the first).

And any engagement will have to wait until tomorrow ;) I'm going to bed now.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:51:01 PM | Message Detail
Let's see how I did in Round 2...well, I don't know if it's very impressive, since I have no one to compare predictions to. I only got within 1% with my predictions for 2 matches in this round.

Super Mario Bros . 3 - 77% (+4.96%)
Final Fantasy - 75% (-7.01%)
The Legend of Zelda - 83% (-4.68%)
Tetris - 68% (-3.52%)
Chrono Trigger - 69% (-4.2%)
Super Mario World - 72% (-.98%)
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 70% (-3.42%)
Final Fantasy VI - 66% (-.89%)
Final Fantasy VII - 81% (8.52%)
Metal Gear Solid - 57% (+2.23%)
Goldeneye - 44% (-18.28%)
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 71% (-11.93%)
Starcraft - 22% (+6.38%)

62% predicted Goldeneye to reach Round 3, while only 47% had Perfect Dark even reaching Round 2, even with a 6 seed! Stunning. Heh, I think it was Slowflake who was said that Perfect Dark > Goldeneye without question when we first received the bracket. :P

Yeah, and congrats to all those guys that I recognize in the top 50. I'm only at 43 points, but, surprisingly enough, that's in the top 2%. Maybe these stats/discussion topics really do help you do better, after all. I remember my cousin talking about how he only missed one match in Round 1, and he has FFVI winning the contest on his bracket. I wonder if he's one of those two guys in the top 50...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: tnote827 | Posted: 5/20/2004 9:54:32 PM | Message Detail
I know I am not the regular most of you are, as a full time job and summer classes do not allow for much board surfing. However, Smitelf, we must will Mr. Vercetti and Miami to victory on Saturday, as I cannot imagine too many of the top 50 have GTA pulling it out against SSBM. No matter what happens though, it is really cool to see your name up on that board... how do you do a screen capture again? And on topic, I truly believe that Zelda and LttP will win their divisions, which in turn will lead to FFVII and FFX defeating their Zelda counterparts as a result of anti-voting. My bracket says otherwise, but this is my belief. Then LttP and VII will battle it out for the title, but as everyone knows, the VII/OoT match-up really is the final.
---
Proud supporter of CT in the final game... even though nobody likes a CT.
Damn you Starcraft!!! Next tough pick? Advantage: GTA: Vice City
From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 5/20/2004 10:50:29 PM | Message Detail
Just popping in to say a few things.

1. Donkey Kong won because of bracket voters.

2. Bracket voters helped Soul Calibur do as well as it did.

3. An underestimation of Half-Life lead to an underestimation of Prime.

On the last point I'd just like to say that this contest is so friggin' unpredictable. Zelda games are looking strong, not including WW, but is that because we overestimated Super Metroid and Super Mario 64? Possibly.

Don't even get me started on DK, because he and his games are unquestionably the most unreliable things in these contests.

At this point I believe there are three tiers of games in this contest: Heavyweights, fodder, and even more pathetic fodder. Anyone agree?
---
"Delicious morsel! Let me get my bib...!" - Ultros
Vote Final Fantasy X!
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/20/2004 10:54:15 PM | Message Detail
^No because if there are only 3 tiers, the top tier is unquestionably OoT and FF7. Rest of the field can't be all bunch of fodders...
---
Contest Score: 58/192
Next Pick : FFX
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 10:57:02 PM | Message Detail
I feel like bolding everyone I know on the list:

1 The Return 58 Final Fantasy VII
2 Saitou7777 58 Super Mario Bros. 3
3 LordOfDabu 57 Chrono Trigger
4 Modest Morte 57 Final Fantasy III (VI)
5 SSJGasSnake 57 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
6 leet g33k 57 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
7 Topdogg48067 57 Final Fantasy VII
8 willyman76 56 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
9 AlliterationMan 56 Final Fantasy VII
10 SlangEdter41 56 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
11 MedigoUltima 56 Final Fantasy VII
12 papermariodude 56 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
13 Annihilator 56 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
14 baron von toast 56 Super Mario Bros. 3
15 Mega Psycho Crusher 56 Chrono Trigger
16 Jeff Andonuts 56 Final Fantasy VII
17 Skaigear 56 Final Fantasy VII
18 Raistlin187 56 Final Fantasy III (VI)
19 insignificant other 56 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
20 Lord Magus2002 56 Chrono Trigger
21 Dont Tread On ME 56 Final Fantasy VII
22 Nerpin 56 Final Fantasy VII
23 mattw7186 56 Final Fantasy VII
24 DarkMagus333 56 Final Fantasy VII
25 CounterCloud 56 Super Mario Bros. 3
26 dim mak mofo 56 Final Fantasy VII
27 smitelf 55 Final Fantasy VII
28 Thalandor46 55 Final Fantasy VII

29 HotShot 55 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
30 RIHMZ 55 Final Fantasy VII
31 Centurion 55 Chrono Trigger
32 DarkMoogle 55 Chrono Trigger
33 Scissor Ninja 55 Final Fantasy VII
34 Bananaquest 55 Final Fantasy VII
35 tnote827 55 Final Fantasy VII
36 Skularis 55 Final Fantasy VII
37 stncldrwg 55 Final Fantasy VII
38 Corrective Perjury 55 Final Fantasy VII
39 Hentai Master 55 Starcraft
40 tempoblade 55 Final Fantasy VII
41 Locke Scythe 55 Final Fantasy VII
42 alpha door 55 Final Fantasy VII
43 PerfectDemon 55 Super Mario Bros. 3
44 blink0947 55 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
45 UltimaterializerX 55 Final Fantasy VII
(who the heck is THIS guy, anyway?)
46 FrostHarpy 55 Chrono Trigger
47 XY12Burnz 55 Super Mario Bros. 3
48 PepeCamello 55 Final Fantasy VII
49 EBFan2000 55 Final Fantasy VII
50 kaonashi1 55 Final Fantasy VII


Congrats to us SC2K4 people for making the list, and also to those with 55 points who aren`t there yet.
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 5/20/2004 10:58:08 PM | Message Detail
I'm actually living with the guy that's in 8th place. He doesn't have any time to piddle around on the boards though.
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Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/20/2004 11:05:05 PM | Message Detail
Are you serious?
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 5/20/2004 11:06:08 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, he went nuts earlier telling me how smart he was. I even went through his bracket and tried to find something he would screw up on in the future to take him down a peg or two.
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Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!
From: Tarrot | Posted: 5/21/2004 12:07:57 AM | Message Detail
Match pics are up for the next rounds.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b49.jpg

I have to say, I easily give the edge to FF there, it has a chance now.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/21/2004 12:12:10 AM | Message Detail
Becky jumps up nine spots, I jump up 18 spots. Holy ****. I never thought I`d ever see myself on the leaderboard, but in 27th place? That`s crazy. And should SSBM beat Vice City, I might actually make the top 20.

Wow. Just wow.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Qwaar | Posted: 5/21/2004 12:21:14 AM | Message Detail
Tarrot, you are joking? FF is going to lose 70-30 at best.
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Supporter of Starcraft and Ocarina Of Time in the Spring Contest!
From: Tarrot | Posted: 5/21/2004 2:19:52 AM | Message Detail
In the pictures, I give the edge to FF. It has a chance to beat SMB3.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2004 5:22:56 AM | Message Detail
I don't see anything that would draw someone who hasn't played FF1 or doesn't read 8BT to vote for it. Raccoon Mario does it for me.

Half of the people who had WW getting to round 2 had it losing there. Wow, the mindless WW-hating drones are sure getting to a lot of people.

And dare I say it, FF10's performance today SUCKS. Of course, there's still another round left, but it's letting WW take control a little too much.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 053/060 --- Matches: 40/46 --- Rank: 01002/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10
From: irriadin | Posted: 5/21/2004 6:16:00 AM | Message Detail
Yes, I think that this solidifies WW's advantage in the Zelda vs. FF10 match.
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Current Score: 56/60 Tied for 168th
Today's Pick: FFX over FFTA
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/21/2004 6:29:17 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Prediction Leaderboard:

1 The Return - 60
1 Saitou7777 - 60
3 SSJGasSnake - 59
3 leet g33k - 59
3 Topdogg48067 - 59
6 willyman76 - 58
6 SlangEdter41 - 58
6 Annihilator - 58
6 Skaigear - 58
6 Raistlin187 - 58
6 insignificant other - 58
6 Lord Magus2002 - 58
6 Dont Tread On ME - 58
6 mattw7186 - 58
6 DarkMagus333 - 58
6 CounterCloud - 58
6 dim mak mofo - 58

Today 9 people fell off the top 10 for picking MP which includes: LordOfDabu, Modest Morte, AlliterationMan, MedigoUltima, papermariodude, baron von toast, Mega Psycho Crusher, Jeff Andonuts and Nerpin. And today nobody got added to the list since were still above 10 people in our top 10.

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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 51/58 WW vs. MP
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/21/2004 6:54:33 AM | Message Detail
Okay, who here is voting for FFTA and can I have whatever it is you are smoking?
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 57/60, Next Winner: Final Fantasy X
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/21/2004 6:55:55 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and now that I've seen the picture for tomorrow's match, I must say that I'm officially screwed.
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 57/60, Next Winner: Final Fantasy X
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 5/21/2004 7:03:00 AM | Message Detail
I'm one of the unlucky nine with a score of 57 but didn't make it on the leaderboard. How are those people decided? Is it based on who submitted their brackets the earliest (which is the last tiebreaker used at the end of it all)? In any case, grrrrrrrrrrr.......
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Contest status: 59/62 points through Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Final Fantasy X.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2004 7:12:51 AM | Message Detail
Unsurprisingly, the last two matches were by far the most painful for the BOP's brackets so far, with Kingdom Hearts' elimination costing 198 points, and Prime 262. KH was 16th in point value, and Prime, despite being thought of as a second round loser, was 12th.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 053/060 --- Matches: 40/46 --- Rank: 01002/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/21/2004 7:15:28 AM | Message Detail
you know what's so weird 92% of the people picked WW to beat SoA in round 1 and 56.97% of the people picked MP to beat HL. The wierd thing is that only 47.04% of the people picked WW to beat MP looks like the people who picked HL had it going very far don't you think?
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 53/60 FFX vs. FFTA
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/21/2004 7:47:37 AM | Message Detail
Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with kiddie vs gritty to close out Round 2 here in the "Modern Era" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXXVIII

(7)GTA: Vice City vs (2)Super Smash Bros Melee

Steve's Prediction: Smash Bros by 57.10%
Steve's Bracket: Smash Bros
Newbie's Pick: Link, Mario, Fox, Ness, Luigi, Yoshi, Peach, Bowser, DK, Samus, Pikachu, Zelda, Etc.
Upset Chances: Tommy Boy could pull off the drive by!

Comments: Here we have the match that brings both extremes of gaming to the forefront...the kiddies vs the gritties...the old school vs the new forefront...the big N vs the big R...Tommy vs the World According to Miyamoto...

This match will be interesting and a fun happy way to end Round 2. Tommy 'Hilfiger' Vercetti will go at it tooth and nail with the Nintendo All Star Team, and he will want to prove that last year's fluke lucky close win against everyone's happy primate was just that...a fluke. He feels slighted, humiliated, and is mocked in mature gamer circles as a hasbeen, even though he has only been around 2 yrs.

He also looks in the mirror and realizes that his homies over in San Andreas will put him further out to pasture than he already is. He feels this is his time to make his mark, to be a made man...right here in Spring 04.

But not if the big N can help it. I dont mean Captain N! I mean the pride of Miyamoto, Gumpei, and all the other thousands of dedicated staffers at Nintendo of Japan Inc, who created for the world so many famous legends, icons, marketing bonanzas, money making machines, and beyond. These icons changed the gaming world, sold countless systems, revived gaming when it was in a landfill of ET cartridges. Yes indeed...this game, SSBM, is a tribute to all that is right with gaming today.

To quote Heroic Mario, the most diehard of the Nintendites, "Know Your Roots" More voters than not will know, and will send Tommy Boy packing.

Why SSBM Will Win: MGS2 was a better game than Vice, the series more popular than GTA. GTA is a novelty in my eyes, a fun but overrated set of games, that peeps play just to say they played them and get their violence fix. Peeps beat it and move on. Peeps play SSBM, and keep playing it, and play it some more... Oh did I mention its got the Nintendite vote?

Why Vice Wont Win: Tommy can beat weaklings, but he cant beat a game of this caliber. And yes, MGS2 would beat him too.

Probable Results: Stomp! Smash! Pow! Kaboom! Bang-Zoom! lol The Nintendo parade marches on all over the flattened corpse of Tommy V, by by a closer than it should be margin of 57%, give or take 1.5%

Best Bosses: Discontinued...bring on Round 3!
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SCK24: 52/60 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/21/2004 7:55:09 AM | Message Detail
I still don't see how anyone could think that MGS2 would beat Vice City but I guess I'll finally be proved right tomorrow.
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 57/60, Next Winner: Final Fantasy X
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/21/2004 8:06:57 AM | Message Detail
I never would've guessed that a Zelda game would be chosen by less than 50% of the brackets to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

I am surprised by Final Fantasy X's underperformance. It needs to break 70% by the end of the day to still look good going into the next round.
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Spring Contest 2004: 52/60
Today: (3)Final Fantasy X over (6)Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2004 8:08:41 AM | Message Detail
*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #48 - (7) GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE CITY vs. (2) SUPER SMASH BROS. MELEE ***

Sales

VC sold something like 8.5 million copies worldwide, second only to the Sims in this generation. SSBM sold what, barely over 2 million?

- Advantage VICE CITY.

Franchises

In that aspect, SSBM has to be the most powerful force in the tournament, if only because it has Link, Mario and Samus co-starring with 22 other Nintendo greats.

- Advantage SSBM.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: SSBM
Number of reviews: SSBM
Average review score: SSBM
Board activity: SSBM

The reviews are the only place where Vice City can keep up. It only has one or two less reviews, and its scores are awesome... just, not quite as much as SSBM. A single 4, two 8s... the rest are all 9s and 10s. And Melee simply dominates in the FAQs and boards. GameFAQs people love it.

- Advantage SSBM.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 78
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 18
Also picked: Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (3), Metal Gear Solid 2 (3)

POINT VALUE
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 608
18. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 233

Hard to believe that it isn't even close. SSBM is only 11 points away from the best projected third round loser, FF6... but Vice is still the second best projected second round loser - ages behind Prime.

- Advantage SSBM.

Previous Rounds

Most of us would agree that MGS2 would beat KOTOR. By a decent enough margin to put SSBM over Vice City? Very difficult to say.

- TIE.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

Vercetti and the Nintendo characters are probably poor proxys for their games, so we'll look at something else instead.

The 2001 GOTY poll, where SSBM got beaten not by VC, but by GTA3! And FF10 won that GOTY, which is another matter entirely.

Of course, it can be argued that no game aged better than SSBM since the days of the NES, but we're looking for hard numbers here. And they just aren't too encouraging for SSBM.

- Advantage VICE CITY.

Intangibles

And that's where the aforementioned aging comes into play. That, and all the Nintendo titans under the same roof to duke it out in one of the greatest fighters of all time. SSBM would win this category against most, if not all, of the games in this tournament, I'd say.

- Advantage SSBM.

Conclusion: A tribute to Nintendo's great legacy, a quarter of a century spent making games worth playing. Arguably THE game that will stand out in this generation when it's all said and done. A fighter that manages to get some love on GameFAQs of all places. From that point of view, it couldn't possibly lose here, right?

The answer is... yes... yes it could.

And I'd be mighty pissed off if that happened. But hey, whatever floats your boat.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 053/060 --- Matches: 40/46 --- Rank: 01002/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 5/21/2004 10:34:58 AM | Message Detail
SSB Melee 56.72% vs Metal Gear Solid 2 43.28%
FFTA 32.73% vs FFX 67.27%
I don't know about any of you, but a game pulling only 10% more against FFTA than SSB Melee did against MGS2 doesn't look like a lock for its divisional final to me.
Unless Melee gets killed by GTA:VC...
But it won't :)
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"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2004 11:00:30 AM | Message Detail
That's because we have absolutely no idea where MGS2 stands. It could be incredibly powerful, or it could be absolutely worthless. If SSBM beats VC by a good amount, it's still in the race.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 053/060 --- Matches: 40/46 --- Rank: 01002/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10
From: Tai | Posted: 5/21/2004 11:49:55 AM | Message Detail
FFX can't even get 70% on the weakest FF game in the contest. (FFTA, right?) I don't know how it could beat SSBM or VC. Or is FFTA just that good?

SSBM vs VC. What a nice way to end the second round..it will determine just what chance SSBM has at winning this divison.

I'm still confident in an all Zelda Final Four...>_> <_<
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Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/21/2004 11:53:48 AM | Message Detail
If SSBM beats FF10, it's got a good shot at WW, I think. Depends on if it wins by 3 votes or 3000.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 053/060 --- Matches: 40/46 --- Rank: 01002/40940 --- Today's pick: FF10
From: Tarrot | Posted: 5/21/2004 11:56:14 AM | Message Detail
I've thought about it, and this seems on par right now with FFX's performance in round 1. FFTA is by no means weaker then Shenmue, SFF factored in.
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