Same here, Ulti, same here.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I don`t see Prime winning tonight. The second-best Zelda game beat the best Metroid game all over the place. For Prime to win, its strength has to be vastly underestimated, and the Wind Waker`s strength honestly needs to be far weaker than anyone could have ever imagined.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

yes...
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If you're worried people are talking about you... you're probably right.

That`s why you don`t listen to the board, HM. Ever. They messed me up something fierce in this contest.

No one forces you (in general) to make picks, and it doesn't relly mean much to say, ah, the board messed me up. You (again in general) wouldn't have switched your pick if you thought it didn't have a legitimate chance of winning. so don't blame the board, blame your indecisive, insecure selves!

I don't mean to speak out (or offend)just against you ulti, its just a point I'm trying to make :), but I'm assuming that next contest you're thoughts will be somewhere along the lines of that's my bracket, and that's final.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb

Aaaaaaand... that sponsored poll a few weeks back needs to be absolutely bogus, which I just don't see happening.

I think that poll was a sign that CJayC doesn't exactly have complete control of the site anymore. He probably knew of the hype for this match, and I doubt he would've killed it in the egg if he had the choice.

Stupid me, every change I've made after my "gut instinct" picks is going to cost me a lot, except maybe for switching SSBM to FF10, and definitely replacing PD with GE as winner of the BangFang Triangle.

I had SMRPG beating SF2.
I had Starcraft beating Halo (but still losing to KH).
I had LoZ beating SMB3.

All five of these picks didn't last a day.

Furthermore, my gut told me WW would steamroll over every game in the division... I bought into the hype and thought it would be much closer than I thought, but fortunately I kept WW. Guess it will win almost as easily as I first thought.

My gut never, EVER saw LttP coming though, if you're interested. And definitely not KH bombing like that, either.

Speaking of which, this is great news for WW... it'll have an even easier third round match than we thought, since it was overestimating KH, and not underestimating both Halo and Starcraft, that cost most of us these two points.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/056 --- Matches: 39/44 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH

I don't mean to speak out (or offend)just against you ulti, its just a point I'm trying to make :), but I'm assuming that next contest you're thoughts will be somewhere along the lines of that's my bracket, and that's final.

Which makes decent sense, but the whole reason people listen to the board is that the board still helps once in awhile. For example, I originally had Phantasy Star and Perfect Dark winning. And that`s the problem. The board can be right sometimes.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Check out this topic, give me your thoughts:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14174753
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

KH/SC: It's a 60-40 match, one way or another. Too little information, but I doubt it will be close.

WW/MP: Wind Waker with 55-60%. This will be nowhere near the blowout of LttP/SM, especially considering the strength of Prime and weakness of WW, but Zelda should still win.

FFX/FFTA: Should be an 80-20 blowout, as FFTA lacks the fanatical base of FFT, and there is a good portion who thinks X is the best of the series.

GTAVC/SSBM: 65-35 SSBM. I don't think VC is just that strong.

My predictions from a couple days ago. I was wrong on KH/SC, but was right on it not being close, and no I don't consider 5000 votes close. WW right now hold around a 55% lead, probably jump above it to around 60 during the day. Lets see how accurate my other 2 end up being.

Ulti, I don't have time to read that thread, so I'll post my reply here. You haven't really said anything new.

The extrapolated rankings have already shown to be quite reliable. See my explanation.

http://www.sc2k4.com/extrapolated.php

As I said, the optimal scalar for adjusting 2K3 performances was almost exactly 1 if you ignore Cloud. The sum of squared error wasn't high. There just wasn't much difference between character results in 2002 vs. 2003, outside of KHF and SFF, and volatility of jobbers.

Only a handful fo characters went up against 2003 Cloud for example, yet the recursive rankings assume what ever character would have scored against Cloud. And that`s not fair, because there is no way that we know what those characters would have scored on Cloud back in 2003.

Sure there is...that's the point of the system. Again, it's been pretty accurate.

of their high-scoring losses, they`re all going to be ranked high.

And they shouldn't be because...? We know that Tactics is basically equal to MGS. It should rank the same as it...

There are factors that can really screw up the ranking system

SFF and year-over-year volatility (popularity changes), mostly. Also the results of lightweights being less reliable. This is all well-known stuff.

Remember, because Duck Hunt could theoretically only score slightly lower against Ocarina of Time than Final Fantasy Tactics, it would have a chance of being Final Fantasy Tactics. Sorry, but I don`t buy that at all.

What in the world makes you think Duck Hunt could rank higher than Tactics? Due to LoZ vs. DK, Duck Hunt's ranking will be pathetic.

only factors in the numbers, and says nothing of common sense.

The extrapolated standings ARE common sense. They are derived from basic statistics.

I`m just trying to prove my opinion that numbers aren`t everything. If it was that easy, we`d all have perfect brackets.

What numbers? We had nothing to base this on.

Obviously, if you had the extrapolated standings before the contest you would have a perfect bracket ;o)

and your math can and will fail you sooner or later.

Anybody that tries to dismiss the power of quantitative analysis is barking up the wrong tree. Models are just that. When models have systematic errors, they are still good models.

For instance, in options pricing, the Black-Scholes model has systematic errors with regards to implied volatility--the "volatility smile" and such. These come in systematic form, and are known. The model says that implied volatility should always be the same, and it isn't--but the differences from the model follow predictable patterns. Thus, it is still a good model. The extrapolated standings have shown to be an excellent model, and I PWNed the Oracle Challenge towards the end last year when I used them almost exclusively. They forecast Cloud vs. Link, Sephiroth vs. Mario, Sephiroth vs. Mega Man, and Cloud vs. Sephiroth extremely well.

Obviously, they will be of far less use this year, since I have made them very public :) Information disclosure will increase the competition and people's predictions for this year's Summer Contest Oracle challenge will likely be improved.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

The rankings would tell you that Magus would beat Solid Snake, and that Mega Man or Samus can and would beat Mario.

The rankings are unclear on this. We know that the slight differences are not reliable indicators. To believe a miniscule difference is indicative of anything is foolhardy. We know the level of confidence we should have in this model--it is high, but not reliable over miniscule differences, and drastic changes in year-over-year popularity level do occur.

We can try to adjust for those after we have signs they occur--for instance, after Cloud vs. Sonic it was clear something drastic had happened, and due to Sonic vs. Aeris and previous matches we knew it was unlikely to be a huge melt-down by Sonic. Thus, Cloud should've been the favorite against Link according to the model, whereas most still picked Link to win.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

The model says that implied volatility should always be the same, and it isn't

I meant to say that it should be the same for a given stock's option across strike prices and maturity dates. Implied Volatility is the volatility that sets the model-based price equal to the actual price for the option. Option traders often don't quote option prices, but rather implied vol.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

If these Wind Waker vs. Metroid Prime results hold up, the division is still up in the air. Wind Waker looks significantly weaker than the other Zelda games. Which is what most of us expected, of course. But less than 58% against Metroid Prime definitely leaves the door open for Final Fantasy X.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

And SSBM :)
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

I'm certainly feeling better about having FFX as division champ right now. Not that I ever felt bad, really; Zelda's chances against it have been oversold ever since round 1.

And I'm rooting for that personally, too. Having FFX acknowledged as division champ material would make up for all the other times this contest saddens me. Gooo FFX. ^_^

alright what happened to that SFF that plagued every other Zelda, Metroid, and Mario match this round? if LTTP can give Super Metroid such a beating and Super Metroid is supposed to be more popular than Prime, then why is Wind Waker only beating Prime 55/45?

is it because Wind Waker is that weak, or is Prime really much stronger? at this point, i won't be surprised to see Starcraft sneak into the Elite Eight.


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Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624

And SSBM :)

Unless Vice City beats it first :)

Seriously, you guys crack me up. First Wind Waker is the default winner of the division and now it might not get past Starcraft according to this thread.
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker

If it can beat Prime, it can definitely get past Starcraft.

So, what happened to SFF this time? My idea is the recency factor... after all, you're pitting the last two GOTYs on this site.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/056 --- Matches: 39/44 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH

You know what would be funny?

If StarCraft somehow beats Wind Waker, and it somehow turns out that Halo was stronger than both the 128-Bit Zelda and Metroid.

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The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

You know what would be funny?

If StarCraft somehow beats Wind Waker, and it somehow turns out that Halo was stronger than both the 128-Bit Zelda and Metroid.

Whats funny is this idea...No way Halo would beat either of them. Nintendites are too many...

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SCK24: 56/64 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

Ok what happened to SFF my prophet prediction depended on it now it looks like I'll be ranked even lower
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 51/58 WW vs. MP

well, since every game in the 128 bit division has shown some weakness, and since starcraft has shown surprising strength, it is not out of the question that starcraft gets to be the game that emerges victorious.

not saying it's for sure, mind you, but that is exactly the recipe for a string of upsets - the so-called top seeds showing weakness, and a lower seed showing surprising strength...

Indeed. All the spamming in the world can't save Starcraft's ass.

I somewhat expected the result to be like this... I don't think it removes WW's status as favorite. The first round said it anyway, the winner of that division will be ridiculously weak. And what about tomorrow's match? Well... FFTA got so much bashing you wonder how it doubled FE. But against FF10?!? ...It could look worse than Shenmue. Fact is, Prime is some of the toughest opposition in this division, and WW is gaining ground constantly. If it can get 57-58%, things look good against FF10.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

Whats funny is this idea...No way Halo would beat either of them. Nintendites are too many...

True.

Then again, Halo wasn't supposed to be a threat to Kingdom Hearts and, well... *looks at the results of yesterday's match and compares it to Halo vs. SC* >>

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The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

That's KH's fault for bombing. Not Halo's or Starcraft's.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

That's just it. What if it turns out that KH wasn't weak, but that the other competitors in that four-pack was just that strong?

*crickets chirp*

...okay. So maybe I'm just hoping against hope that StarCraft somehow continues its bracket breaking run. >>

---
The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the 2nd joke in as many rounds for FFX here in the "Modern Era" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXXVII

(6)FF Tactics Advance vs (3)FFX

Steve's Prediction: FFX by 74.10
Steve's Bracket: FFX
Newbie's Pick: That Rikku sure is hot...
Upset Chances: Are gas prices droppin? No. Neither will FFX drop to FFTA.

Comments: Here we have the first Battle of FF, as Greatest Hit FFX, and its SFF from the sequel, takes on love it or hate it FFTA, the pride of the Game Boy Advance.

This ho-hum boring easy to call match really is not exciting at all. After all the drama of the last few matches, this stale dud would suit the 1st round just fine. It is for sure the last total no brainer match to call in the tourney. All the ones to come will not be THIS EASY to predict. Yes some will be easy, like Zelda/Tetris, but not THIS EASY. Get it? Got it? Good.

I sat here trying to come up with something funny to say about this match, but I really cant...its that lame. I would bet (as I so accurately did in Round 1...see old stats threads for details) that this match will have the lowest vote total of Round 2. FFTA is a dud here, and is way overseeded, and will be exposed here rather easily. Peeps just dont care about FFTA. For FF fanboys, its the ugly duckling...

Lets just move on to the next match. This one is over before it began.

Why FFX Will Win: Voting Blocs: FF Fanboys are all it needs, but FFTA is not as well liked, not as big a seller, not as often played, blah blah blah

Why FFTA Wont Win: It just wont.

Probable Results: Its a sin FFTA is where it is, and this pretender to the Sweet 16 will be cast away appropriately by a 75-25 style margin in the lowest vote total of Round 2 history.

Best Bosses: FFX: Sin and all its forms. FFTA: Plugging the battery pack into the GBA unit.
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SCK24: 56/64 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #47 - (6) FINAL FANTASY TACTICS ADVANCE vs. (3) FINAL FANTASY 10 ***

Sales

FFTA didn't sell a million in either North America or Japan, if I'm going to trust its absence from the platinum charts, and FF10 sold about 5 million copies in both combined...

- Advantage FF10.

Franchises

OMG I'm seeing double!

- TIE.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: FF10
Number of reviews: FF10
Average review score: FF10
Board activity: FF10

FFTA does well, except for the review scores (where it's a disaster for both games, to be honest), but it's simply overwhelmed by FF10. Humongous FAQ page, BTW. The longest on the site, maybe?

- Advantage FF10.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Final Fantasy 10 - 99
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance - 1
Also picked: Fire Emblem (1), Shenmue (1)

POINT VALUE
5. Final Fantasy 10 - 863
25. Final Fantasy Tactice Advance - 98

NEXT!

- Advantage FF10.

Previous Rounds

FFTA caused quite a shocker by doubling Fire Emblem, while FF10 was particularly underwhelming against Shenmue... and lost the position of favorite to Wind Waker in the process.

Now that's a dilemna. Do I call this a tie, not thinking FE could have been this overestimated, or do I call it in favor of FF10, and not give FFTA the credit it deserves?

Ah, you know, screw it.

- TIE.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

FFTA is getting scores on FF spinoff polls that are similar to FF10's numbers among the numbered series. What does that tell you?

- Advantage FF10.

Intangibles

FFTA's been bashed to hell and back, even by hardcore Square fanboys, while FF10 gets lots of praise - much more than its sequel, dare I say.

SFF'D/10

- Advantage FF10.

Conclusion: It's going to take a really high score to make me rethink FF10's underdog status. And it might get it. Then again, every time the main rival to the Zelda title did great, the Zelda totally overwhelmed it. And the one time the Zelda went first, the rival couldn't match it.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

torey luvullo:
well, since every game in the 128 bit division has shown some weakness, and since starcraft has shown surprising strength, it is not out of the question that starcraft gets to be the game that emerges victorious.

Indeed. With Wind Waker getting about 56%, that match isn't entirely a gimmie I thought it was. But for all the hype Stacraft gets, I could conceive of Half-Life being stronger than it. In which case Starcraft will struggle to get 40%, just like we already expected.

Slowflake:
FFTA caused quite a shocker by doubling Fire Emblem

Not really. The average Oracle prediction was 63.74%, and it got 66.36%. A lot of people had great scores for that match. It was one of the easier %es to predict.

I don't think the next match will tell us much about Wind Waker vs. Final Fantasy X either, unless Final Fantasy X somehow fails to get 70% here. SFF and all that. I could see this passing 80%.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

Just like many say, Starcraft so far really has been the Scorpion of the contest--advancing far due to weaker-than-expected competition, while not necessarily showing much strength of its own.

However, if it can put a decent fight against Wind Waker, it'll become more like Squall/Shadow, and if it can actually beat Wind Waker it'll be more like a mini-Crono. Though I think the latter is incredibly unlikely. I don't think Starcraft can break 45% against Wind Waker.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

Mini-Crono? Excuse me, but after the beatings Crono gave Dante and Lara, him beating Snake showed to be very much of a possibility. So far, Starcraft hasn't shown the strength it takes to beat Wind Waker, and Wind Waker hasn't shown enough weakness to lose to Starcraft. Although it shows enough to bring back life into the division final.

If Starcraft takes out Wind Waker, this will be the biggest upset ever, bar none. And not because of the seeding.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/058 --- Matches: 39/45 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker

I meant "mini" in terms of entrant strength, not in terms of upset level. Even if Starcraft beats Wind Waker it probably wouldn't be as strong a competitor in this contest as Crono was in the Summer Contest. Starcraft beating Wind Waker would indeed be the biggest upset ever.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

There was someone in the Oracle Challenge who predicted Zelda: WW to win with 77%...poor guy.

Well, Metroid Prime is actually doing slightly better than even I anticipated.

Remember the poll asking what they're favorite GameCube game was (or something like that)? Zelda:WW had about 50% of the vote there, while Metroid Prime had about 18% IIRC.

So, if Zelda: WW gets 55% and MP gets 45% and that "Best Gamecube Game" results in 50% of the votes for Zelda: WW, that means, of the remaining portion, Zelda:WW gets 5%, while Metroid Prime gets 27%. Odd. Do the people who only vote in the contest matches favor Metroid Prime THAT much?


---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Or maybe people voting in that particular poll weren't influenced by their brackets.

LordOfDabu
A legend beyond all ages.

...well, there goes my theories.

and the best part is...i don't even know which of my theories today's result actually goes against.

...perhaps i should content myself with sitting back and watching from here on out...
---
signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

I see five ways for Starcraft to win against Wind Waker in round 3:

1) Revenge voting for Half-Life and Metroid Prime
2) People who say "screw my bracket, Starcraft winning would be great!", a group that matters more with our lower vote totals
3) Battle.net gets spammed like never before
4) Korea finds this site
5) Satan accepts my offer of Heroic Mario's soul in exchange for Starcraft's victory
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker

Yay, now we have talk of SC somehow beating Wind Waker. Come on Wind Waker go kick ass! <<
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I don't really think it's possible, HM, but I can always dream...
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker

Yeah, I don`t think its possible either... the board seems to think its a great possibility however, heh.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Well, it's always nice to dream. Just like I dreamed that Squall could beat Samus in the same situation last summer. However, it looks like Starcraft could keep this reasonably close. If you had told me it could manage 60/40 against Wind Waker before the contest started, I'd have said you were crazy.
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Spring Contest 2004: 52/58
Today: (4)Metroid Prime over (5)Wind Waker

I am proud that at least one of my fits of insanity picks has a chance. Starcraft has a legitimate chance to beat Wind Waker.

This was my reaction to peeps saying there would be an all final four due to the better wins for the Zelda games.

And one way to counter this in the first three divisions: stronger opponents go to the Zelda's rival. (In 128 they go to Waker, and FFX has the weaker opponents, so just reverse the following for Division 128).

In Division 8: SMB3 faced Metal Gear, LOZ faced Adventure. Anyone could easily see that Metal Gear > Adventure.

Round 2, SMB3 faces Metroid, LOZ faces Donkey Kong. SMB3 shreds up Metroid, and LOZ pwns Donkey Kong. However, if you were to tell me DK would beat Metroid, I would have to smack you many times. Metroid > DK.

Final Fantasy has the friggin name for SMB3 to face in Round 3, and Zelda gets the no defined fanbase of Tetris. Final Fantasy > Tetris.

In Division 16: CT faces Secret of Mana, LttP got Gunstar Heroes. Square RPG > Genesis anyday. Secret of Mana > Gunstar Heroes.

Round 2, CT faces SMRPG, LttP gets Super Metroid. Here you could have a valid argument, and this is probably the only time the Zelda game in the first three divisions gets the stronger opponent. But wait, talk of SFF and Waker struggling against Prime can indicate something; WW isn't that popular, and Metroid will never be able to beat Zelda and Mario. SMRPG > Super Metroid (debatable)

In Round 3, CT will have to bring down Super Mario World. Look, this is Crono/Mario for real, and if you think FFIII will give that much challenge to LttP, you need to wake up and smell the dead game heap. SMW > FFIII

In Division 32/64: FF7 started against Suidoken II, and OoT against Fallout 2. I knew what Suidoken was, and so do many others. But Fallout had so many people saying "WTF is that game?" Suidoken II > Fallout 2

Round 2 pit FF7 against Xenogears and OoT against Super Mario 64. Here is a very hard one to call, as both were likely affected by SFF. It's pretty much a no decision, if SM64 and Xenogears were to face off, there's no question SM64 would win, but in context to these two matches, they are quite equal. Xenogears < or = Super Mario 64 (too tough to call)

Round 3, well here be the greatest discrepancy behind CT/SMW. Metal Gear Solid is a big game, including the badass Snake as hero. What has Goldeneye done besides take down two games that aren't very strong? It's probably the weakest member of the Sweet 16, so OoT gets it easy while FF7 has to break a sweat. Metal Gear Solid > Goldeneye

In Division 128: These are different because FFX gets the weaker opponent this time around. Wind Waker is performing well enough for me to consider it a slight favorite against FFX should they meet for the Divison title. If one Zelda game reaches the Final Four, Waker (and OoT) is the most likely.
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This is the alternate account of swirldude.

Can someone explain to me why Wind Waker is a lock in the 128 division? I've seen this many places, never understood why.

It's just speculation because everyone thinks that Skies of Arcadia is overwhelmingly more popular than Shenmue for some reason, which I don't believe is true.
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Spring Contest 2004: 52/58
Today: (4)Metroid Prime over (5)Wind Waker

Its not a guaranteed lock, but its a favorite to win its division nonetheless.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

smitelf:
1) Revenge voting for Half-Life and Metroid Prime
2) People who say "screw my bracket, Starcraft winning would be great!", a group that matters more with our lower vote totals
3) Battle.net gets spammed like never before
4) Korea finds this site
5) Satan accepts my offer of Heroic Mario's soul in exchange for Starcraft's victory

1 and 2 have always been meaningless, we can already factor in the impact of 3 from what we've seen, 4--who the **** knows if this matters at all. I highly doubt it.

If Starcraft does win, it'll be because it's the stronger game. I totally do not expect that though. How much stronger than Half-Life could it be?

(them sound like famous last words, actually)

swirldude:
SMW > FFIII

I see no reason to believe this. It's very possible, but right now we haven't seen much to say that one is clearly stronger than the other.

Suidoken II > Fallout 2

Also very questionable. If anything, I'd say Fallout 2 was stronger, because of how well PC games have done. PC nomination factor is clearly important. Before the contest I would've thought Suikoden II was stronger, but I was never sure. Despite how many people around here were asking what Fallout 2 was, it's a very well known PC RPG.

Metal Gear Solid > Goldeneye

I would think this as well, but that would mean that Tactics would beat Goldeneye...wow. It's unclear whether MGS is really stronger than Goldeneye though. I thought these would be the strongest non-Nintendo, non-Square games in the tourney, along with perhaps MGS2.

Tarrot:
Can someone explain to me why Wind Waker is a lock in the 128 division?

It wasn't a lock, but it became the favorite after Final Fantasy underperformed against Shenmue. Some people then re-evaluated their perceptions of Shenmue's strength, but for some reason Wind Waker became the clear favorite. It then became a very big favorite against the Zelda series' dominance in the 2nd round. Now it seems like it's debatable again after Wind Waker wasn't able to dismiss Metroid Prime easily.

The elevator of dynamic expectations goes up and down, the elevator of dynamic expectations goes up and down... [to the tune of "Wheels on the Bus"]
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

Match #45 Review:

YEEEEEEESSSS!!! Go SC!

Match #47 Preview:

Holy crap, what a boring match. FFX...
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Ok, I just wanted to know. I can buy WW being the favorite, but for multiple people to say it's a lock, especially since we've learned that fanboy voting is meaningless in the later rounds, just really confused me.

I can buy WW being the favorite, but for multiple people to say it's a lock, especially since we've learned that fanboy voting is meaningless in the later rounds, just really confused me.

Fanboys don't matter? I didn't know that. What proved that theory wrong?

1 and 2 have always been meaningless, we can already factor in the impact of 3 from what we've seen, 4--who the **** knows if this matters at all. I highly doubt it.

If Starcraft does win, it'll be because it's the stronger game. I totally do not expect that though. How much stronger than Half-Life could it be?

(them sound like famous last words, actually)

In case you hadn’t noticed, I wasn’t being entirely serious in my post. And you still didn’t contradict #5 ^_^. Satan will come through, I just know it!

I still wouldn't be terribly surprised if none of the Zelda games made it into the Final Four. They're all strong contenders, yes. Division 8 appears to be a toss-up between Zelda and SMB3. Division 16 is a three-way between Chrono Trigger, LttP and FFVI -- a three-way that I still see Chrono Trigger as the favorite in, and I'm not counting FFVI out just yet over LttP performing well against weak or SFF-poisoned opponents. Division 32/64 has always been a coin-toss between FFVII and OoT, with the coin being slightly weighted in FFVII's favor (IMO, of course). Division 128 can be whittled down to Wind Waker, FFX, and the longshot SSBM, but after today's performance it would be foolhardy to call Wind Waker the 70% favorite that some believed it to be before (not that it wasn't absurd then, anyway). Given this, a final four of SMB3, Chrono Trigger, FFVII, and FFX seems reasonable to me, perhaps even probable.
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Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/58, Next Winner: Wind Waker

Okay, look, have we all gone insane?

There is no way in hell that Starcraft is beating Wind Waker, and I don't think I have to justify this with a reason.
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Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf slmrsyynbzucxqeq