^ As do I, Tarrot. As do I.
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 53/54, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

That brings up a good question I`ve been meaning to ask: What percentage do you expect ALttP to get? A rough estimate. Right now, I`m guessing in the 60% range myself.

I'm guessing in the 48.2% range myself.
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 53/54, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

Hehe. =P
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

On the topic of tomorrow's match, it should be pretty close. I don't see a 60/40 victory in the future of either. It would be better for Kingdom Hearts, in fact, to keep it as close as possible. If it starts making things look embarassing too early, the fire in the blood of Battle.net may once again be stoked.

And hey, if MWIS no longer exists, am I still engaged to him?
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 53/54, Next Winner: Ocarina of Time

Before I go to sleep, a thought: if my weighing of Super Metroid's and SM64's strength is correct, then LttP and OoT stole almost as many points from SFF as Mario did on Donkey Kong. And we all know how the big ape suffered from that.

SFF on middleweights, I'd understand. But heavyweights? This would mean one of two things, or maybe even both:

1. The Spring Contest is much more volatile than the Summer Contest. I could see it happening, since it's easier to get all passionate about games than about characters, EVEN on an RPG-biased site.

2. Nintendo forces are completely and totally behind LttP and OoT. Sure, this won't change a nailbiter into a 60-40 blowout, but if 3/4 people vote OoT over SM64 without a second thought and 4/5 people vote FF7 over Xenogears with even so much as a little question mark, OoT could earn enough from that to win, say, 53-47. Anticlimactic, I know.

If #2 holds true, OoT would be the small, but clear, favorite.

And before I'm off, one question: Supposing OoT and FF7 are dead even at the moment the kiddies start waking up, how would you rate OoT's chances from there on?
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 049/054 --- Matches: 38/43 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: OoT

OoT and FF7 are dead even at the moment the kiddies start waking up, how would you rate OoT's chances from there on?

Priding myself in being almost perfect when it comes to predicting who gets that time frame vote I can honestly say OoT. The day vote might be in favor of FFVII but that little morning surge would favor OoT.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I am thinking either FF7 or OoT will have built an insurmountable lead by the time kids wake up. But I actually think FF7 might have the edge during the day. Nintendo is strong right after start of the match and just before the poll closes.
---
Contest Score: 54/192
Next Pick : OoT

Nintendo is also always strong in the morning.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

But Square is always strong during the day and well into evening. If I have to break it down..

Just after the match starts - Advantage OoT
Few hours before morning votes become a factor - FF7 catches up or even takes the lead
Morning votes - advantage OoT
Day votes - Advantage FF7
evening votes - Advantage FF7
night/before close of the poll - OoT will undoubtedly receive a strong boost here, if FF7 is leading by a slim margin....
---
Contest Score: 54/192
Next Pick : OoT

Square isn`t always strong during the day, Nintendo games usually get quite the perk during such. I`m not saying OoT will but don`t be so sure to give the advantage to FFVII because its usually night time that Square games start getting their little boost.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Supposing OoT and FF7 are dead even at the moment the kiddies start waking up, how would you rate OoT's chances from there on?

In this case, I'll say it's over and that OoT won.
---
Hard work may not kill you, but why take chances?
Aeowyn is my God - Heroic Tails here

Nintendo's been strong all day long this Contest. And I hope to see more of it.

Well, a major shakeup to the Guru Scoreboard over the past few days. Not many of us were suckered into thinking the FF name would be enough to beat MGS (which was smart of us... we were 14% more confident of that than the board in general). However, for some reason I still don't quite understand, we were very foolish in our Castlevania support, favoring it by over 8% more than the average board user. This makes it only the 3rd time so far we were out-guessed by the BOP. However, tomorrow has an excellent shot of being #4... a shocking 97% of us took Kingdom Hearts to run away with the match, a full 25% more than the board.

But, let's get to the current tally, shall we?

Contest Guru Scoreboard

1st Bananaquest 55
1st smitelf 55
1st UltimaterializerX 55
4th Ngamer 54
4th IMAP 54
4th King Morgoth 54
7th Ncrdrg 53
7th Sephirot 53
7th neoatomtaco 53
7th Haste2 53
7th Starion 53
7th Shake 53
7th Heroic Mario 53
7th solarshadow 53
7th Xuxon 53
7th Team Rocket Elite 53
17th StopPokingMe 52
17th red sox 777 52
17th nh82 52
17th FastFalcon 52
17th swirldude 52
17th Yesmar 52
17th creativename 52
24th cyko 51
24th Z1mZum 51
24th charmander 51
27th Sir Chris 50
27th ChichiriMuyo 50
29th Ringworm 49
29th torey luvullo 49
31st DomaDragoon 44

From 5 leaders we fell to only 3, thanks to Goldeneye. And here is the current score breakdown... hopefully we will be able to make a direct comparrision between these and the complete user Stats tomorrow.

Pts % Gurus
56 0.00% 0
55 9.68% 3
54 9.68% 3
53 32.26% 10
52 22.58% 7
51 9.68% 3
50 6.45% 2
49 6.45% 2
48 0.00% 0
47 0.00% 0
46 0.00% 0
45 0.00% 0
44 3.23% 1

Avg Expert Score: 52.13

---
the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

Thanks Ngamer :)

If I really had to make a pick for the next match, it would probably be Starcraft. I can't get over the feeling that Soul Calibur is pretty strong though.

BTW, anyone have the pics for Summer Contest 2002 matches 22-25? I'm still missing those.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

1. The Spring Contest is much more volatile than the Summer Contest. I could see it happening, since it's easier to get all passionate about games than about characters, EVEN on an RPG-biased site.

I'd go with this; it appears that the Spring contest rules may be different, in terms of upper tier games being vulnerable to SFF whereas upper tier characters are not. Again, just a guess, since we have no real proof of SFF to begin with; it just makes sense.

As for Final Fantasy VII vs. Ocarina of Time regarding the day vote, both the Final Fantasy and the Zelda series tend to be strong during the day (though Final Fantasy VI was not against MK); there's no heavy bias. I'd guess that Ocarina of Time might have a slight edge over Final Fantasy VII during the day (relative to the night), but not by much. In Cloud vs. Link there was hardly a difference between day and night votes, and I'm guessing the same would hold true here.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

Whoa, the match started already?

Looks like Starcraft has a nice cushion to start, though it's been going down slightly.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog (click on the galleries)

I expect another wild one here.
*waves Terran flag*
---
Contest Score: 56/192
Next Pick : Kingdom Hearts

I've explained before: The Summer contests were based off fanboyism, who is your favorite character. Fanboyism does not apply to games people has played, they actually pick the better game rather then the better character in most situations. This is why I'm worried for FF during it's battle with SMB3, as the game itself isn't necessarily the best of all time, and pales to SMB3.

Well, the anti-XboX theory has been squelched.
---
Contest Score: 56/192
Next Pick : Kingdom Hearts

Well, the anti-XboX theory has been squelched.

Don't be so sure...KH cut into the lead in the last update.
---
SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger

I really wish the stats were up already. You have no idea how badly I want to root for Starcraft =(
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #45 - (5) LEGEND OF ZELDA: THE WIND WAKER vs. (4) METROID PRIME ***

Sales

I get different figures depending on who I ask... but usually WW outsells Prime by about 50%.

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Franchises

Are you kiddin' me?

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: Wind Waker
Number of reviews: Prime
Average review score: Prime
Board activity: Wind Waker

Both have very similar advantages in the sectors they win, so...

- TIE.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 63
Metroid Prime - 36
Also picked: Half-Life (2), Skies of Arcadia (1)

POINT VALUE
8. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 619
12. Metroid Prime - 358

These two should have met later in the tournament, don't you think? Well, the numbers are inflated here, because whoever comes out on top will have a very easy 3rd round opponent, and many thought it would be the battle for the division.

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Previous Rounds

WW had the biggest blowout of the division in the first round, and even weighing the strength of the losers there, WW still was the most impressive. Meanwhile, Prime failed to get 60% against Half-Life...

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

Link already beat Samus. 'Nuff said.

Or maybe not... remember that sponsored poll, that asked what was the highest ranked GCN game on GameRankings? Despite Prime being the correct answer... WW still beat it handily, as well as three other games... COMBINED.

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Intangibles

Seriously. Look at the killing Zelda made on other Nintendo games so far, and some of the finest at that. You mean to tell me Prime has a shot?

- Advantage WIND WAKER.

Conclusion: Why WW Will Win: Because you sail for 80% of the game!
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/056 --- Matches: 39/44 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH

Wow. Even though this match costs me two points...Starcraft is winning, so who gives a damn? w00t!

I'm guessing this is the mentality of more than one voter today. This is another case of bracket vs. preference, in which case I think preference almost always wins.

BTW, anyone have the pics for Summer Contest 2002 matches 22-25? I'm still missing those.

I'm missing those ones, too...does anybody here have them?
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Seriously, though, doesn't this match disprove the bracket vote to a great extent? Even if KH ends up winning, this match wouldn't be anywhere near as close if bracket voting was going on.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/56, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts

Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the elimination of the Metroid contingent from the tourney, here in the "Modern Era" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXXVI

(5)Wind Waker vs (4)Metroid Prime

Steve's Prediction: Zelda by 68.8
Steve's Bracket: Zelda
Newbie's Pick: The cel-shaded winds are blowing aint they?
Upset Chances: Based on past history...Nope

Comments: Here we have a way overtalked, overanalyzed, overhyped 2nd rounder between the Cube's 2 shiniest diamonds in a sea of rough coal...as its Wind vs Prime...

Here is another match that people care way too much about. I am proud to say I really dont care about it. Its just another free 2 points as far as I am concerned. So free I have already checked it off as a win on my bracket.

(On a side note...I wish I could say I checked off the KH match as a win...geesh..stupid Starcraft fanboys..where did they come from??? Are they crawling out of the ground like the cicadas ater their long hibernation?)

OK back to the matter at hand. Yes the wind is blowing..an overdone quote on this board by the Hyrulian Knights who will propel their cel shaded cutie Link to the Sweet 16, giving Zelda 4 spots there, alongside archnemesis FF. Yes kiddies, FF is Link's truest enemy, not Ganondorf. For Link to erase the doubts from his inner elven soul, he must vanquish Chaos, Kefka, Sephiroth and Sin. Will he do it? Do I think he will??? Well you will all find out who is in my 'illuminated' bracket til the end soon enough, eh?

Samus Aran has choked like a fat kid munching on Doritos in the 2nd round, all to her fellow Nintendo brethren. Some say she got the shaft, others bad luck. I say, quite simply, she is 2nd tier like Sonic, and nothing more. Ever.

See ya next year Sammy...

Why Zelda Will Win: Voting blocks: The Nintendites have shown 3 times who is their hero, and the better game was not the Zelda entry in any of them. What does that tell ya? They are Zelda fanboys, thats what! They will prove it again here.

Why Prime Wont Win: Peeps love the game, but they love Zelda more. Remember where we dwell...

Probable Results: The wind will blow Samus all over the landscape, til she is beaten by a 70-30 vote margin. Just another match peeps, quit talking about it!

Best Bosses: Wind Waker: The crashing waves...the howling winds...the moonlight above...a beacon from above as I sail in 80% of the game! Prime: Ummm...uhhh...I am drawing a blank! Oh who cares I am tired of best bosses anyway...time for round 3 and a new section here!

---
SCK24: 56 or 58/64 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

Elites, a question...

What was Zelda's final percentage at the end of the poll last night? I need to know cause I do believe for the 1st time ever I won the Oracle match for closest prediction that night with my shiny happy 76.6. Last I checked it was 76.29 with about 3 hrs to go...

Thanks for answering! :)
---
SCK24: 50/56 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

ORACLE CHALLENGE

---Second Round Leaderboard:

1) steve illumina - 489.76
2) Xuxon - 489.38
3) kawaiifan - 487.30
4) MrGuru - 484.48
5) StopPokingMe - 483.93

Congrats to steve illumina for taking the second round lead! Kawaiifan is the only one of our leaders to maintain a place on the second round leaderboard, and she's always in the same place on both. Weird.

Yep I am pretty pleased right now :) I may not ever make the Stats leaderboard cause of unexpected losses caused by fanboys...but in the Oracle, I am making my charge to glory!

SCK24: 56 or 58/64 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

These two should have met later in the tournament, don't you think? Well, the numbers are inflated here, because whoever comes out on top will have a very easy 3rd round opponent, and many thought it would be the battle for the division.

You seriously underestimate Starcraft's power. It's going to put up a fight, it won't just roll over and die.

Well, I had KH in the division finals, basicly as my upset special for the tournament over WW....although i'm honestly happier that starcraft is winning.

Still, this is absolutely amazing - this means that Halo, Soul Calibur, and Kingdom Hearts are all amazingly close to one another in strength. Who would have thought?

Now all i can do is hope to see Kerrigan in the finals for this division. THAT would be amazing.
---
SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger

looks like the only hope for Kingdom Hearts is somehow the people coming home from school/work in the next few hours largely favour KH.

Something tells me not to hold my breath -_-

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Spring Contest Rec: 41-3 (93.2%) PTS: 53 Streak: W19 Pick: KH

Gasp... NiGHTS would get less on OoT than Gunstar Heroes and PS4 would get on LttP, if I trust the current standings. That's how much of an ass-kicking yesterday's match was.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/056 --- Matches: 39/44 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH

Still, this is absolutely amazing - this means that Halo, Soul Calibur, and Kingdom Hearts are all amazingly close to one another in strength. Who would have thought?

Yep, this is no question the most even four-pack we've had in any contest. Now all that is left is figuring out its overall strength. Right now, unless KH makes a MAJOR run, I'd say SC>Halo>KH>SoCali. And whatever SC picks up against WW, SoCali shouldn't be projected to do more than 10% worse.

These four are still less tight than the Magus/Ganondorf/Tidus trio. But Sam Fisher was so out of it, I guess we really have the tightest 4-pack ever.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 051/056 --- Matches: 39/44 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH

Dear Satan,

Hi! I was wondering if you'd be interested in a soul for sale. I'd be willing to part with Heroic Mario's soul to secure Starcraft's win against Wind Waker in the third round of the GameFAQs Best. Game. Ever. contest. You know where to reach me :)

Your devoted follower,
smitelf

P.S. I'll be rooting for you in the final battle of good vs. evil!
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/56, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts

Lol, pretty funny...

Come on Wind Waker. ;)
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

*slides the slipper onto Starcraft's foot*

Hello, Cinderella.

*then rips his bracket to shreds*

Goodbye, bracket.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 52/56
Today: (9)Kingdom Hearts over (1)Halo

-_-

well, i'm one match away from tearing up my bracket. i knew Starcraft had a legitimate shot at the Sweet 16, but i was really hoping Square fanboys would come in when i needed them. i think that most of us in this topic did pick KH to come out of this 4-pack because it seemed safer to rely on a Square RPG than an X-Box game, a PC game, or a Fighting game; not because we honestly thought KH was unstoppable.

my chances of doing respectable now hinge on FF6 pulling the upset out over LTTP. that and guessing the Final Four perfectly, lol.

we shall see what kind of numbers Zelda and Final Fantasy can put up over the next two days to see which one looks like the division favorite. i still can't see either losing their next two matches.

---
Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624

The next two matches are going to have more SFF come into play, so we still won't know too much after them. The third round ought to make everything pretty clear.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 52/56
Today: (9)Kingdom Hearts over (1)Halo

Starcraft sales figure as of August '03: ~6.1 mil.

I think Starcraft can officially be known as the dark horse of Sp2k4. It has made it two rounds farther than the majority of GameFAQs expected it to get (at least going by the BOP). It is a 16 seed that has beaten both a 1 seed and a Square RPG. That is a feat worthy of some commendation.
---
Why do you persist? - Agent Smith
Current Sp2K4 Score: 55/56, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts

Now all it needs is to do the impossible and beat a Nintendo game, and the circle will be complete

---
The last thing I see in my lifetime is that fixed smile crawling out of the television, as my brain explodes into tiny, sobbing pieces.
-Videogame Recaps

And that leads to a big question: regardless of who SC faces in Round 3 (assuming it wins - don't want to pull a Slowflake here), can we consider SC anything less than a minor underdog? Just think of what you would have said if someone like me told you at the start of the contest that Starcraft could beat Wind Waker in Round 3.
---
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

Match #44 Review:

OUCH. As of now, OoT is looking to be unstoppable. Unless FFVII really makes some noise against MGS next round, it looks like OoT will beat it.

Match #46 Preview:

I cringe every time someone mentions Wind Waker. Thus, it causes me great pain to know that such a poorly-designed borefest will beat a masterpiece like MP.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I`ll go ahead and say it now, FFX is going to get more percentage than WW just by the calibur of the opponents each has. But if WW gets anywhere close to FFX`s percentage I know who I`ll be calling as the division winner. But I don`t expect anything like that, I think WW will get around 62% while FFX will hit around the 75-80% area.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Whats funny though is that I once had StarCraft going to round 3 beating Halo and Kingdom Hearts but due to the boards opinion I switched SC from losing in round 3 to it losing in round 1. I`m shooting myself in the foot right now.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Heroic Mario... ouch... that's gotta hurt :p

I've got to admit that this is a surprise, I was convinced this would be 60/40 to KH, or thereabouts...

The worst part is that we can't even draw any real conclusions from this, it won't be until next round that we see whether Starcraft is actually much stronger than anticipated, or KH is much weaker.

Of course, if the 128-division is as relatively weak as we're all supposing (I think it's fair to say that most of the favoured games from the other divisions could beat any from the 128) then in fact KH may come off extremely badly in the final standings.

Final point, has anyone any thoughts on how this relates to the 'KH Factor' of 2003?

I think many of us expected KH to be a real competitor -at least in its division - since it's so widely accepted that KHF was the driving force behind much of last year's contest. So does KH's failure here shed any new light on KHF? Or the other way around?

<pettybitterness>
Oh, and before I forget: Curse starcraft and its lousy, unpredictable (yet strangely fun) point-losing upsets. I wavered over Halo/SC, but never in my wildest dreams did I think I was playing with THREE precious points. Curses.
</pettybitterness>

Well, the thing about the Kingdom Hearts Factor is that it expanded the fanbase of already-popular characters. The game wasn't only bought by FF fans looking for the cameos. I guess it's safe to say that it's definitely not as popular as the characters featured within. This match shows that people are definitely voting based on the better game.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 52/56
Today: (9)Kingdom Hearts over (1)Halo

While we will have to wait until next round to see how strong SC and KH really are, the KH effect probably stands regardless of KH's strength. Because, the game still did exist, and sold really well, and it did introduce those characters to new people who hadn't seen them before. I guess the game's individual strength really doesn't matter, because people bought it anyway, and still could have liked Cloud,Seph, and the rest, without liking the game.

AND the only reason SC is winning is because of B-NET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*sadness*
*denial*

---
Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb

That`s why you don`t listen to the board, HM. Ever. They messed me up something fierce in this contest.

Oh, and creativename`s site has every match pic there ever was, as well as results and such. It`s definitely worth a look:

http://sc2k4.com/index.php
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Hey, we shouldn't automatically exclude Metroid Prime...after all, Starcraft surprised us, so perhaps we've been underestimating Half-Life all this time? Also, Zelda: WW got 74% against Skies of Arcadia, and it's tough to estimate Zelda: WW's strength from that. For all we know, SoA could be a weaker game than we think. Forget what happened to Metroid games in the past. We all knew those two would lose. Metroid Prime was much more favored to reach Round 3 than Super Metroid was.

Meh, and I lost 3 points in that 4-pack, as well...it looks like I'll lose 4 points in a row with Metroid Prime winning Round 2. >.< Well, I don't feel so bad for missing the Starcraft pack, as none of the games would beat each other by more than 54%.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."