The Wise Tonberry raised an interesting question in the Prophet topic.

There's a serious lack of buzz for the match against KH compared to the match against Halo. Now, we can pretty much agree that B.net spamming got Starcraft the win... but do you think that lack of hype could reduce the amount of spamming, and put KH in the position of slight favorite?

As for me, I'm off to bed. G'night.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 047/052 --- Matches: 37/42 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Goldeneye

tai:
And that's who?

By seed, I think that would be MGS. I'm surprised seeds matter anymore. O_o'

i was referring to mgs...but i was actually going by board consensus.
not just the "elites," but most of the board considered mgs to be the likely victor.

slowflake:
No ****ing way. FFT/MGS is one for the ages, regardless of who won. Waaaaaah, you lost two points. Big deal. The first Mario/Crono is still remembered, even if the favorite won, right?

I've been saying this for two months and a half now, anyone who thinks LttP won't kill FF6 is in denial. I can't wait to see that match begin to see the hype of that Crono/Dante clone get killed. Hey, I predicted Zero/Scorpion as the Crono/Dante last year, and guess what happened?

how impressive.
not only have you missed my point entirely...but the match you call historic taught you absolutely nothing.

slowflake, you called yesterday's match about five times one way or the other.
...and that was before we started joking about your mysterious, wonderful voodoo.
now you are calling lttp vs. ff6 over two weeks before it starts.

i award you no points, and may god have mercy on your soul.
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

correction: one week.
one week before it starts. not two, as i had mentioned.

...this is how problems start.
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

Haha, I got on the leaderboard last year after sweeping 2nd and 3rd round. I saved the page too, and I see Slowflake at 19th spot with 122 points, with smitelf at 35th spot. A lot of you did good last year eh?
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Contest Score: 54/192
Next Pick : OoT

Two weeks? More like, three months! At least FFT/MGS got me thinking a few seconds while filling out my bracket the first time. I should trust my gut more, I had Starcraft and SMRPG beating Halo and SF2 for the first few hours.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 047/052 --- Matches: 37/42 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Goldeneye

Phediuk, have you considered the possibility that MGS2 > MGS? I wouldn't be surprised. MGS seems a bit forgotten now, but MGS2 is newer, at least. (um, forget about MGS:TS) Also, SSBM got 57%, not 54%. By the way, Tarrot, I thought MGS had a worse pic than FFT. You could hardly tell that it was Snake in that image (er, wait, I'm 99.99% certain it was Snake, at least).

I really hope you're right Slowflake about FFT being underestimated rather than MGS being overestimated, but don't you think if that was the case FFVI would perform a little better than 35% or so against LttP? I couldn't imagine FFVI having less support than FFT. (Dear me...don't tell me Zelda: LttP would beat MGS with 65% or more) Still, I have LttP winning with 65% in the Oracle challenge.

Heh, and I expected Zero to get a rather large win against Scorpion last year, as well...so I guess there were a few who saw it coming, but not many. Ironically enough, I didn't expect Zero to get 48% on Sonic the next round. Of course, I never even hung around the boards during the Summer 2002 contest, and I actually expected Crono to win by as much as he did against Dante. On the other hand, I still thought he'd lose to Lara Croft. o_O Back then I actually thought Ryo Hazuki was really popular. XP

So...back in past contests, what were some of YOUR illogical reasonings?



---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

...i am certainly glad i was not around for 2002.

i have a feeling my finals match would have been mario vs. sonic...
...after they beat solid snake and pac-man, respectively...
---
signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

2002 I had Mario vs. Link in the finals but here`s the catch...

I think I had Squall over Snake. <<
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

"There's a serious lack of buzz for the match against KH compared to the match against Halo. Now, we can pretty much agree that B.net spamming got Starcraft the win... but do you think that lack of hype could reduce the amount of spamming, and put KH in the position of slight favorite?"

The spamming may very well be reduced, but I think that will be offset by the new layout and the lower turnout of normal gf visitors. People specifically coming to vote will likely be able to find the poll. So let's say the normal voter turnout is down by 25%, and let's say the spamming is down 25%. The effect would then be the same as it was in the last round.

Aprosenf:
Cjay is probably specifically waiting until after SC vs. KH just so that it'll break a lot of brackets and make it harder to be in the top 50 or however many.

Good point. I hope you're wrong :)

Haste2:
Phediuk, have you considered the possibility that MGS2 > MGS? I wouldn't be surprised. MGS seems a bit forgotten now, but MGS2 is newer, at least.

I would be very surprised. MGS is not forgotten at all, even if it weren't for Twin Snakes (which may not have benefitted MGS as much as it could've due to the different name, akin to Metroid: Fusion and Metroid)

That this implies Final Fantasy Tactics could possibly beat SSBM shows the strength of the Final Fantasy name. Not to mention possible weakness of any non-Zelda GameCube titles.

Dear me...don't tell me Zelda: LttP would beat MGS with 65% or more

I could definitely see that...I really doubt it could manage 40%. I don't think any non-Nintendo, non-Square game could put up a decent fight against A Link to the Past. I'm with Heroic Mario in thinking that only Final Fantasy VII and Ocarina of Time are stronger than A Link to the Past. (though I'm not totally counting out Chrono Trigger like a lot of people are; I think Chrono Trigger is a wild-card at this point)

And people do seem to be underestimating Final Fantasy VI IMO. The Tactics vs. MGS result is actually a double-whammy when it comes to analysis for the FF6 vs. ALttP match: not only does it show the strength of the Final Fantasy name, but it also says that "disappointing" earlier results can be misinterpreted. Tactics' showing against DDR didn't wow anybody. And I think FF6's performance against Mortal Kombat is being underrated.

ALttP is the clear-cut favorite, and I think it'll win with a cushion. I would be very surprised to see Final Fantasy VI dip below 40% though. People are talking as if this match is going to be PWNage, and I just don't see it.

So...back in past contests, what were some of YOUR illogical reasonings?

I didn't enter the first Summer Contest, didn't visit the boards except for a couple of times, and didn't have a bracket. I wish I had though because I probably would've had Link as the winner. Mostly out of fanboyism, partly out of recognition that Link is universally loved. I think I would've had either him or Sephiroth taking it. Probably against Cloud or Mario in the Finals, though I'm not sure about that.

As for my poor reasoning, I definitely would've underestimated Crono, and overestimated Lara Croft. Which aren't that poor since they were common mistakes...but my truly horrid reasoning would've included overestimation of Little Mac :) I would've expected him to put up a fight against Link, actually, due to nostalgia and love for Punch-Out. I would've overrated a lot of the older, nostalgia-type characters, since that's when I gamed the most. I also would've thought Simon Belmont would be a BIG powerhouse, and I might've actually expected him to beat Crono. The Castlevania games were hugely popular back on the NES, and *everyone* knew Simon Belmont. I would've expected Dirk the Daring to do OK as well.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog

*Plays OoT theme*

Ocarina of Time vs. A Link to the Past here we come! =)
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

As of writing this, OoT has 73.25% of the vote against Mario64. Just slightly less than what Lttp got against Super Metroid. If this holds, does this mean Mario 64 is only slightly stronger than the "weak" Super Metroid or that OoT is much more powerful than expected.
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

It means very little really. We'll all find out questions you posed after LttP vs FF6.
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Contest Score: 54/192
Next Pick : OoT

It means very little really. We'll all find out questions you posed after LttP vs FF6.

I don't think we will. Some thing tells me that if Lttp gets a blowout on FF3, it will be attributed to FF3's weakness instead of Lttp's strength.

Another thing to think about. Does SFF still only affect lightweight competitors? I find it very hard to believe that Mario 64 would be considered a lightweight opponent.
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''

Or perhaps Zelda's really about to own this contest, and hard. I had trouble buying SFF against Super Metroid, but I still could understand it, but Mario 64? No way! Of course, this makes Wind Waker and its 75% against SoA look crappy in comparison...
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 047/052 --- Matches: 37/42 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Goldeneye

Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the elimination of the PC contingent from the tourney, here in the "Modern Era" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXXV

(16)StarCraft vs (9)Kingdom Hearts

Steve's Prediction: Kingdom Hearts by 51.40%
Steve's Bracket: KH
Newbie's Pick: For sure, Mickey Mouse, et al.
Upset Chances: 90%

Comments: Here we have the most unlikely by seed numbers match in tourney history, as #16 goes against #9 in the 2nd round!

The Xbox Nation is still bitter and demands revenge. Halo fanboys cried for days at the stunning defeat their poster child suffered against a 7 year old PC RTS game. Some are still in denial, even writing letters to Big Bill and Bungie pushing for a speedy release with the hopes its overwhelming quality will bury the memories of the painful defeat their Icon suffered.

This rage will be manifested in votes for the Kingdom of Disney. The Mouse House RPG is loved by the FF fanboys and kiddies. Soul Caliber kept it close..too close..shocking everyone and fueling talk that KH is overrated and will be exposed by StarCraft. That sort of talk is nuttin but rubbish! KH is doing fine as it is. Its still here, SC aint. So shut up kiddies. All that matters is victory here.

Just as the Hundred Acre Wood is full of trees and bees, the GameFAQs site is full of FF Fanboys who when faced with a choice between a non-FF SquareEnix RPG and a Blizzard PC RTS...well we know what 99.9% of them will pick dont we?

The StarCraft victory was nuttin more than an anti-Xbox propoganda campaign. Now that they achieved their desired result, they will retire from the tourney with a sense of pride. Sure they will fight KH and make it look good, but this time the passions are not there as they were a few weeks ago. So no Battle.net, no Korean insurgency of votes, no Papau New Guinea or Nauru voting blocs... Well you get the idea...

The Mouse House rides onward to the Sweet 16, proving it belongs once and for all and setting up an interesting 3rd rounder with the elemental Wind Waker...

Goodbye StarCraft...you cost me and thousands of others 1 point and you must pay for your transgressions!

Why K Hearts Will Win: Voting blocks: Square Legions by default, but even the Xbox Nation will vote for it today just to get back at StarCraft. Truly pathetic is the one who revenge votes just to satisfy a sad inner quest for revenge.

Why StarCraft Wont Win: See the above.

Probable Results: Donald Duck will quack, Goofy will flp his ears, and Sora will unlock the key to the Sweet 16, with the 'Heartless' StarCraft sealed forever in defeat.

Best Bosses: KH: Sephiroth: Great cameo, great fight. StarCraft: The computer on hard mode?

SCK24: 50/56 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

I don`t think that the SFF in this matchup could call Mario 64 weak in the long run. Everyone that owned a Nintendo 64 owned both SM64 and OOT. More people just like OOT and would vote for it. This match tells us as much as FF7 vs Xenogears: nothing.

And while I`m on the subject, FF6 is not weak at all IMO. Its poll was 22 hours long and managed what, 75000 votes? LTTP vs Super Metroid was up for 26 hours and managed 72000 votes. I wouldn`t mind seeing FF6 score 45% on LTTP. It would be nice to see the Zelda games show to be human.

No ****ing way. FFT/MGS is one for the ages, regardless of who won. Waaaaaah, you lost two points. Big deal.

If that was directed in any way towards me, I was joking around about the curse you put on games when you call their matches. Lighten up =)

Then again, I picked MGS to win, so maybe I`m just being paranoid.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Wow. The way this is going, OoT's percentage over Mario 64 may be even higher than WW's percentage over SoA. Three conclusions one could draw from this:

*(Incredibly unlikely) SoA is almost as strong as Mario 64
*(Quite unlikely) WW is a good deal weaker than OoT
*(Somewhat likely) SFF is hurting Mario 64

So... SFF may affect heavyweights as much as middleweights after all. Wonder how this will affect some of the more hotly contested SFF matches in later rounds.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

Its poll was 22 hours long and managed what, 75000 votes? LTTP vs Super Metroid was up for 26 hours and managed 72000 votes.

Lttp vs Super Metroid was down a couple hours though, iirc.
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Hard work may not kill you, but why take chances?
Aeowyn is my God - Heroic Tails here

OoT's still rising... it can reach 76% by the end of the day. I see SM64 as much, MUCH, MUCH stronger than Xenogears, and overall less SFF-able too. In my mind - in yours it may differ - OoT's snagging the favorite status against FF7 in my mind.

Oh, and the Super Metroid/SM64 ratio looks like how I'd call a match between the two. If LttP/OoT is the final, it could be bloody as well.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 049/054 --- Matches: 38/43 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: OoT

*(Incredibly unlikely) SoA is almost as strong as Mario 64
*(Quite unlikely) WW is a good deal weaker than OoT
*(Somewhat likely) SFF is hurting Mario 64

Actually, I'd consider the second and third to both be likely here. Wind Waker is definitely much weaker than OoT; regardless of SFF, I would be shocked if Wind Waker were capable of getting this kind of percentage on a strong, classic game.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 51/52, Next Winner: Goldeneye

Slowflake:
Or perhaps Zelda's really about to own this contest, and hard. I had trouble buying SFF against Super Metroid, but I still could understand it, but Mario 64?

Perhaps Nintendo fans are just very, very fickle;)

Seriously, all probable SFF matches so far have been Nintendo. And the results have been extreme. We can't know for sure if this is SFF, and I wasn't convinced with the Metroid games...but this is too much. Mario 64 can't possibly be that much weaker than Ocarina of Time, I think...?

Ulti:
And while I`m on the subject, FF6 is not weak at all IMO. Its poll was 22 hours long and managed what, 75000 votes? LTTP vs Super Metroid was up for 26 hours and managed 72000 votes. I wouldn`t mind seeing FF6 score 45% on LTTP. It would be nice to see the Zelda games show to be human

Vote totals aren't really indicative of strength. And while I think Final Fantasy VI will do better than most think, 45% might be a stretch at this point.

Slowflake:
I see SM64 as much, MUCH, MUCH stronger than Xenogears, and overall less SFF-able too.

I don't think Xenogears really suffered from SFF. Yeah, Mario 64 is probably a lot stronger than Xenogears. If you say Mario 64 will get 24% in this match, in order for Ocarina of Time and Final Fantasy VII to be equal, Mario 64 would be expected to get 58.4% against Xenogears. That's unreasonable. But if you say that Mario 64 would've gotten 33.33% without SFF, then Mario 64 would be expected to beat Xenogears with 70% if FF7 and OoT are equal. I think that is reasonable, and 33.33% makes more sense as what Mario 64 would get without SFF. Not that we can know for sure.

I still think Final Fantasy VII vs. Ocarina of Time is a tough call, both games are looking ridiculous right now. Final Fantasy VII is the only non-Zelda game that has been monstrous. The next round will tell us a little more--I'd expect MGS to be stronger than Goldeneye. But even that won't lead to a clear-cut favorite between FF7 and OoT, unless one of them significantly underperforms. I doubt either undperforming next round is something to be worried aobut though. Both those matches should be 70%+; maybe MGS can get a little more than 30%, but not much more.

If LttP/OoT is the final, it could be bloody as well

You know, for some reason, I actually think that's less SFF-able than the other intra-Nintendo matches we've seen so far. Mainly because they're from totally different generations--SNES vs. PS/N64 is generally considered the "modern" era divide.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog

Actually, I'd consider the second and third to both be likely here. Wind Waker is definitely much weaker than OoT; regardless of SFF, I would be shocked if Wind Waker were capable of getting this kind of percentage on a strong, classic game

I agree, I don't think that Wind Waker is even close to Ocarina of Time. I see a match between them as 65%-70% PWNage even without SFF. My guess would be that A Link to the Past is stronger than Wind Waker too.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog

*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #45 - (16) STARCRAFT vs. (9) KINGDOM HEARTS ***

Before I begin, I must say I'm surprised Steve's "Newbie's Pick" didn't read "OMG HALO!!1!11!!".

Sales

Who cares about Starcraft's number, it may be 5, 6, 7, 8 millions for all I know. But it's definitely more than Kingdom Hearts, which sold 4 million - then again, so did Halo.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Franchises

Both are similar: only one game, with another one on the way - then again, so did Halo.

- TIE.

GameFAQs Status

(I'm including Brood War for this one.)

Number of FAQs: Starcraft
Number of reviews: KH
Average review score: Starcraft
Board activity: Starcraft

KH beats Starcraft and Brood War combined in the number of reviews. Impressive... not that it matters. The Brood War board alone trails the KH board by almost nothing... but the Starcraft board puts SC over the top. Of course, if I was counting the social boards KH would kill Starcraft, but since I don't...

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Kingdom Hearts - 73
Starcraft - 13
Also picked: Halo: Combat Evolved (14), Soul Calibur (2)

POINT VALUE
16. Kingdom Hearts - 290
28. Starcraft - 81

This is one of these matches where the BOP becomes irrelevant, after KH totally bombing in the first round. But hey, KH still kills Starcraft here - then again, so did Halo.

- Advantage KH.

Previous Rounds

KH was a resounding dud... barely beating the first Soul Calibur, when I, and probably a lot of us, wouldn't have hesitated picking it over SC2. Sure, SC2 may have played a part, but still... Halo's not a strong opponent, but it's no pushover by any means. I'm giving this round to Starcraft, but it can be argued easily.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

No data, except for Sora's so-so performance last year.

- UNAVAILABLE.

Intangibles

B.net spamming. It's what cost Halo the win last time, arguably. However, the lack of hype for this match compared to Halo could cost some... but the hardcore are always awake, right?

Sure, sure, KH is Square, but MGS proved that Square can lose to something else than Nintendo in close quarters. Even if it took two contests and a half for it to happen.

- Advantage STARCRAFT.

Conclusion: Wow, KH only won the least significant category. But is the rest any meaningful, either...?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 049/054 --- Matches: 38/43 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: OoT

Creativename: so you'd say FF7 and OoT would double ANY game in this generation, since WW is slightly favored to win it?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 049/054 --- Matches: 38/43 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: OoT

ultimaterializerx:
If that was directed in any way towards me, I was joking around about the curse you put on games when you call their matches. Lighten up =)

i believe those comments were directed towards me, for my earlier posts in the topic.
i consider them a concluded issue.

as for today's match: anyone that didn't see this coming after lttp vs. super metroid is, frankly, insane.
this is the #1 zelda game against what many people call the #3 mario game.
i would not be surprised if goldeneye scored a higher percentage against zelda next round...although i don't consider it likely, since they're both on the n64.

...but i will admit that i am wondering if i should reevaluate loz's chances against smb3...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

Creativename: so you'd say FF7 and OoT would double ANY game in this generation, since WW is slightly favored to win it?

Sure. I wouldn't have expected any Division 128 game to get 40% against Final Fantasy VII or Ocarina of Time before the contest started, and expectations should only be lower now. SSBM was the only game from the division that that had any shot at putting a dent in FF7 or OoT and that hope appears completely squashed.

I'm guessing that A Link to the Past, The Legend of Zelda, SMB3, and possibly Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy VI would defeat anything from the 128 division. I said the same thing before the contest started, and it only seems even more likely now.

The 128 is the JTTS division.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog

Sorry, I don't think FF7 would double the crap out of WW, or OoT against FF10 for that matter.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 049/054 --- Matches: 38/43 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: OoT

Sorry, I don't think FF7 would double the crap out of WW, or OoT against FF10 for that matter.

I was specifically thinking of those matches, and I think they would. How could Final Fantasy X approach 40% against OoT? Wind Waker getting 40% against FF7 also sounds pretty out there too, unless the Zelda is that much stronger than the Final Fantasy series. 35% sounds about right.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog

Before I begin, I must say I'm surprised Steve's "Newbie's Pick" didn't read "OMG HALO!!1!11!!".

Hahahaha Good one! But I did bash the Halo lovers in my commentary in other ways! Glad u read it everyday!
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SCK24: 50/56 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

From the main page:
5/18/04 6:02AM Back to Basics
After all of the craziness of the past couple of weeks, things should start to get back to normal around here this week. We're going through the message boards and taking care of the remaining bugs and glitches, and the last few pages of Contributor Central should be online this week as well. Contest stats? This week. Promise.

Did I hear anyone say finally?
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"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"

Yeah, we`re getting stats 2/3 of the way into the contest. Go us.
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Hehe.
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

man, today is the first match that really saddened me. i was taken aback by how much LTTP beat Super Metroid, but only 24% for Super Mario 64??? wow. this is simply ludicrous. this one hurts. ;_;

as far as tomorrow's match goes, i still believe that the anti-X-Box factor hurt Halo plenty and the majority of BattleNet spammers seemes to be angry anti-X-Boxers. every post i saw mentioned something about how crappy Halo was and how Starcraft " had to beat that stupid X-Box game!!" but maybe i'm wrong. maybe BattleNet will swoop back in to save it's game again. i don't see it happening, though. both Square and Nintendo have been pretty unstoppable so far.

i'm calling Kingdom Hearts right now with an anti-climatic 60% victory.

oh, and btw- i was the only person in last year's prediction topic who said Zero vs. Sonic would be close. ;) and that was the match where the last two perfects lost their perfect bracket.

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Current Score: 51/56 (through SM64 vs. OOT)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14147624

charmander6000's 128 division preview

Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts: Wow a 16 seed actually made it to the second round even though it was against Halo, but a win is a win. Before Kingdom Heart's match last round most of us thought that Kingdom Hearts had a bye to the sweet 16. But when the match came Kingdom Hearts almost lost to Soul Calibur which now asks us the question. Can a 16 seed make it to the sweet 16? Well unless we all underestimated Soul Calibur Starcraft can very well win this match as well.

Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker vs. Metroid Prime: WW was one of the games that I thought didn't underperform with it's first round match. With Metroid Prime's first round match Half-Life gave us a little scare when MP only beat it by 56%-44%, but that just means that Gordon Freeman was a bad character to represent Half-Life since it was a great game. Before the second round if you said that WW will beat MP by a very big blowout I would say that you were crazy, but with both Metroid and Super Metroid ending up with a blowout from Nintendo games then Metroid Prime is going to be in trouble.

Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Final Fantasy X: Two Final Fantasy facing each other one better then the other do you know what that means? A big blowout. The FF fanboys will pick FFX because it's the better of the two, but with FFTA being on top of the poll may give it some extra votes because some fanboys will act: OMG a FF who cares who it's going against I'm voting for it. In their round 1 matches FFTA performed better then expected, but FFX perfromed alittle worse then we all thought that it will. This match will probably be the biggest blowout in this division.

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee: SSBM under performed it's match against MGS2 last round, but when MGS beat FFT earlier this round it gave me more hope that SSBM has a chance to win this match. GTA: VC is probably one of the best non-Final Fantasy on PS2 beating Xbox #2 best game SW: KotOR 60%-40% sure I predict it 65%-35%, but that's still good. This match will probably give us an idea if SSBM has a chance with FFX next round and if GTA: VC beats it, it has no chance due to SFF (look at Nintendo vs. Nintendo matches if you don't believe me. This match will probably be close, but not as close as SC vs. KH.
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 49/54 OoT vs. SM64

No matter how much I think about it, I just can't see Kingdom Hearts-Starcraft being any closer than 60/40. Starcraft barely beat Halo, and the XBox fans are going to anti-vote it to the fullest extent of the law. I just can't see it beating a Square RPG after desperately rallying to barely beat XBox's #1 game.

I think fighting games have proven to be stronger than we thought. If Halo-Soul Calibur had been a first round matchup, I would've picked SC and been fairly confident about it.

For the record, I hope SSBM crushes Vice City, but it'll probably be the closest match in this division.
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Spring Contest 2004: 50/54
Today: (2)Ocarina of Time over (7)Super Mario 64

*continues to wave the FFVI banner*

I said long ago that Chrono/Mario 3 wouldn't happen because FFVI would beat Chrono. I was laughed at. Now that everyone's jumping ship to how it's going to be an all Link final, I keep up how CT won't even face LttP because of FFVI. I am laughed at. Still, I don't think that Zelda has already WTFPWN'D all the games in the bracket thus far. Quick showing:

Zelda beats Adventure, easily the least known game in the tournament, and Donkey Kong, a character known for a history of underperformance who almost lost to DUCK HUNT, a joke nomination if there ever was one, though a popular one. Neither of these victories is truely awe inspiring, and I would say that both SMB3 and FF would put up similar numbers against both opponents, although FF might be a little lower due to SFF numbers.

Next there is LttP. Gunstar Heros is not exactly a well known game, so it's victory can be thrown out. Super Metroid... yeah, it is impressive, but how impressive? As has been shown with the 128 division, as the games progress on, people vote more based off of the gameplay rather than name value. With SFF being factored in, more people just thought LttP was a better game than SM, in spite of Samus' strength in the character battles.

Next, onto OoT. Fallout 2 is a much better known game then either GH or Adventure, but lets be honest: It's filler. The numbers OoT beat it by are by no means suprising. Today's vote... see my mini-analysis of the SM/LttP match. It's the same thing, SFF, plus just more people loving OoT then Mario 64. Impressive, yes, but not awe inspiring.

Then we get to Wind Waker. See Fallout 2, factor in more people playing Skies for the GC and there's your answer. Plain and simple: None of the Zelda games have anything locked up yet. If you look at their competition, it's mostly understandable how Zelda performed. Yeah, OoT and LttP have dominating wins, but both games are far from the clear yet, LoZ has still shown nothing of it's true power beating a nothing game and the biggest underachiever in GF contest history, and WW's performance was far from dominating. Don't call it an All-Zelda Final Four yet, all of the games still can be beat.

Thoughts on the next 4 matches:

KH/SC: It's a 60-40 match, one way or another. Too little information, but I doubt it will be close.

WW/MP: Wind Waker with 55-60%. This will be nowhere near the blowout of LttP/SM, especially considering the strength of Prime and weakness of WW, but Zelda should still win.

FFX/FFTA: Should be an 80-20 blowout, as FFTA lacks the fanatical base of FFT, and there is a good portion who thinks X is the best of the series.

GTAVC/SSBM: 65-35 SSBM. I don't think VC is just that strong.

Here`s my take on the Zelda games and how I think they`ll do on their way to the Final Four.

Right now the only game I think is going to stop the all-Zelda final four is SMB3 and of course FFVII. I think we`ll be able to determine whether or not LoZ is going to be able to take out SMB3 based on next round performances of SMB3 and LoZ. But one thing I`ve been wondering is which do you guys believe is stronger, Final Fantasy or Tetris? At first it seems like Tetris might be a choice but Final Fantasy is well... Final Fantasy. Based on how well SMB3 and LoZ do will give me a better idea of where SMB3 will stand in the division finals, right now I still see it as a slight favorite. I just can`t see it being downed by LoZ, SMB3 the most favored Mario game in the series at GameFAQs losing to LoZ just doesn`t go well together. Not to me at least.

A Link to the Past, ah, I`ve been saying how this game is roughly equal to OoT. Despite that I`ve believed this game has had it wrapped up since about mid-way 128 division. The game just looks insanely strong, and by its two matchups I`m even further convinced that it should be able to take care of both FFVI and CT, and move onto the finals to face OoT/FFVII. On one side you have CT who seems to be, as creative put it earlier, a bit of wildcard. FFVI on the other hand just hasn`t looked to be performing all that well against its two opponents. I`ll say that ALttP didn`t have the best known entry in Gunstar Heroes but it did still manage to crack 90% and then move on to destroy Super Metroid of all games with 73% of the vote. Like I said earlier, I`m convinced this game is going to make up the 8/16-bit representative in the finals.

Now, Ocarina of Time is definitely interesting. I do believe it became a slight favorite to win the FFVII matchup today with how everyone seems to be talking about things. I`ve always been under the idea that OoT would win, despite how FFVII was the favorite to win the whole thing heading in. While general consensus saw it this way I never did, I dunno why after the KH boost in the Summer Contest the game just didn`t strike me as being able to take down OoT. I was a little wrong in that assumption, FFVII is clearly capable of taking down OoT just as OoT is clearly capable of taking down FFVII. This is the match of the contest regardless, and it should be one for the ages. I, for one, am hoping this match comes down to the last few minutes much like MGS vs. FFT - with OoT winning of course << >> heh. Despite who wins this match everybody will pretty much consider them the heavy favorite to win the entire thing but at the same time ALttP should be waiting in the ranks to take on whichever of these two it is. Here`s a question: Do you think ALttP could come through and nudge out one of these two for the championship? I think its possible though unlikely.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

And finally we have Wind Waker, one of two games who really looks to take the division. Before hitting this division in round 1 the winner was up in the air, there were so many games out of here that could walk out on top that it was unpredictable. A shame really that we`ve got it narrowed down to two games, FFX and WW. What I really hated was the poll we got prior to the WW vs. MP second round match, it pretty much showed who the winner of the match would be before we even had time to think about it. Nonetheless, it only narrows it down to two... FFX and WW. Looking at their first round performances I think its pretty certain that SoA is and was stronger than Shenmue, and by this FFX couldn`t even manage to match WW in percentage. This doesn`t mean FFX can`t win but by the looks of things I`m seeing WW come out on top in this division and it should be a slight favorite to take it if I`m not mistaken. That would put the third and final Zelda game into the Final Four, making the series absolutely crazy in strength.

As for the finals I`ve been expecting it to be Ocarina of Time vs. A Link to the Past for sometime and thats how I think it`ll go down. I`ll be rooting for ALttP to take it home with a victory though that is probably unlikely. Nevertheless, with the Zelda series dominating like this (at least by my predictions) I think Link is definitely going to be looking at a possible repeat win than ever. I don`t think anyone has come up with any "anti-champion" votes or such so that shouldn`t be anything we could decrease his chances by, only increase though I could be wrong.

Great series, great games, and hopefully we see all but one of them make a Final Four appearance. =)
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I`ll say this though, its definitely possible that all four Zelda games could go out in the division finals. It`d be crazy but possible.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Match #43 Review:

Damn, there goes another 2 points. Goldeneye won by a larger margin than I expected, but otherwise, a fairly boring match.

Match #45 Preview:

Two dead-even competitors. This match is damn hard to analyze, so I'll just leave all of the stat-crunching and whatnot up to you guys. ^_^
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I still haven't seen any reason to believe that Skies of Arcadia is that much stronger than Shenmue other than the character contest, and we've seen that it doesn't mean too much here.
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Spring Contest 2004: 50/54
Today: (2)Ocarina of Time over (7)Super Mario 64

I can't believe some of you guys. The results of this match are just too extreme to lay on SFF alone.

Why is it so hard to believe that OoT is looking like the favorite against FFVII? Is there some sort of "FFVII can't possibly lose" mentality going on iside your heads?

You saw LoZ plow over Donkey Kong, you saw LttP trounce Super Metroid, you see SM64's percentage nearly as low as Xenogears'...and yet you STILL refuse to acknowledge OoT's strength?

...whatever.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I honestly don`t see anything pointing to Shenmue being stronger than Skies. You have the fact that its an RPG, has had a re-release on the GCN, has active boards - though this definitely has proven not to mean much - and has had Vyse do better than Ryo. Sure, character contests aren`t great to go by but I`d imagine both Ryo and Vyse are pretty good representatives of their games. I wouldn`t consider SoA a strong opponent but I do believe it would beat Shenmue... I mean its Shenmue for crying out loud, heh.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

Well, the fact that SFF comes into play in a lot of these matches is what makes is difficult to predict future results. It's not certain how big of a factor it is right now.
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Spring Contest 2004: 50/54
Today: (2)Ocarina of Time over (7)Super Mario 64

True. I`m looking forward to round 3 where we can see some non-SFF matches.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I acknowledge OOT`s stength without a doubt. My only issue is that we have yet to see a high-powered Square or Zelda game go at it in a match that wasn`t a predetermined blowout. Sadly, the first such match that won`t have that problem is Chrono Trigger vs Mario World, then LTTP vs FF6. If CT struggles with Mario World, then LTTP stomps a new one into FF6, I`ll call the contest right then and there.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

I never said Shenmue would win, but it would by no means be a blowout. Gordon Freeman has shown that a franchise can be far stronger than a relatively anonymous main character. I think it has the name recognition that Skies of Arcadia lacks, since it was one of the big Dreamcast games.
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Spring Contest 2004: 50/54
Today: (2)Ocarina of Time over (7)Super Mario 64

That brings up a good question I`ve been meaning to ask: What percentage do you expect ALttP to get? A rough estimate. Right now, I`m guessing in the 60% range myself.
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Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?

I said that the games have not done anything truely awe inspiring, not that they haven't been above expectations or haven't been impressive. LoZ has still shown me nothing, and the DK battle is a SFF combined with the biggest underachiever in GF history, a blowout shows me nothing. 75/25 wins over Mario 64 and SM are impressive, don't get me wrong, but both are SFF matches on games that were expected Zelda would do well against. All I'm saying is that some people think an all Zelda FF is certain, and I still have doubts on any of the 4 making it out of their division.