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Spring 2004 Contest
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Contest Stats & Discussion - Part 17
From: solarshadow | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:02:04 PM | Message Detail
Part 17. Wow, seems like only yesterday we were at part 4....

Stats websites:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html
Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)
2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.
Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm
Spring 2004 Contest:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats3.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats4.htm
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14034164 (Until purge)

Oracle Standings:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/oracle.html
From: Z1mZum | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:05:45 PM | Message Detail
Tag...again!
---
Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:06:31 PM | Message Detail
MGS vs FFT is a close one. Wonder who will win.
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:08:07 PM | Message Detail
Match #41 Review:

Whatever.

Match #43 Preview:

Goldeneye, SotN, Goldeneye, SotN...I just don't know! I'm too busy with FFT vs. MGS!
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:09:34 PM | Message Detail
Thanks for the new topic! This is a nice, close match, but considering my complete neutrality toward both games I just can't find it in myself to get freaked out over it.
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 49/50, Next Winner: Metal Gear Solid
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:11:47 PM | Message Detail
Wow, this is just like Sonic vs. Samus, except even closer. o_O I don't remember exactly what time of the day Sonic vs. Samus became incredibly close, but I think it was about at the same time as with this match.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:11:57 PM | Message Detail
It looks like Sonic/Samus may have some competition for the closest match ever.
---
Spring Contest 2004: 46/50
Today: (4)Metal Gear Solid over (5)Final Fantasy Tactics
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:13:56 PM | Message Detail
Finally an end to the blowouts, but since I don't have a preference towards either game, I'm not really too excited. Anyway, I waiting to see if either side is going to 'make a move' within the next hour, but it's looking more & more like a match that'll just go back & forth for the long haul.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:14:30 PM | Message Detail
Wow, this match is crazy...
---
Nintendo® - We Make Games Worth Playing
You are doing well, lad. But can you break through this secret technique of Darkness?
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:16:47 PM | Message Detail
If this keeps up all the way 'til midnight Pacific, I'm scared to let the outcome in the hands of CJayC. It paid off last time, but you know my feelings on that one.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: cyko | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:17:17 PM | Message Detail
wow. simply wow. go Metal Gear Solid!! keep pushing back!!

---
Current Score: 47/50 (through FF7 vs. Xeno)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14081056
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:33:57 PM | Message Detail
"Go FFT! For Ulti, for Chichi, and for me :) Only .6% away!"

The competitive me wants to smack you steve, but the gamer in me knows that it'd be great to see FFT win. However, I will whole heartledly state that SotN must win! If there is any justice in the universe it will.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: creativename | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:38:01 PM | Message Detail
Thanks for the topic solar :) Must be hard to keep pace. That last one didn't last long at all.

This match is unbelievable. MGS with the completely unsafe "cushion" right now.

I stated this in the update topic, but in terms of the extrapolated standings, it might have been better for Tactics to lose this match 65-35 than to win. It can suffer a lot from SFF vs. Final Fantasy VII. If Tactics does win, my prediction of MGS being the strongest non-Nintendo, non-Square game in the extrapolated standings will certainly be false.

I'm so torn, because I don't want Final Fantasy: Tactics to get PWNed by SFF against Final Fantasy VII, and I love both Tactics and Final Fantasy VII.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:44:03 PM | Message Detail
Nothing tells me FFT would suffer from SFF. The FFT bunch is a rabid one, yo.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: creativename | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:45:18 PM | Message Detail
Nothing tells me FFT would suffer from SFF. The FFT bunch is a rabid one, yo.

:)

Tactics is probably benefiting significantly from the Final Fantasy name though, and that obviously will mean squat against THE Final Fantasy.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:46:15 PM | Message Detail
No one would have expected Auron NOT to suffer from SFF against Cloud, and look...
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:47:46 PM | Message Detail
More than anything else, this match reaffirms the power of the Final Fantasy name, something which I believe a few of us have forgetten after Nintendo's impressive performance so far and their E3 showing. After seeing this, I have more confidence in FFVII defeating OoT.
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My name is Reggie. I'm about kicking ass. I'm about taking names, and we're about making games.
From: Zaphod H | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:53:23 PM | Message Detail
Is the "instant" updating permanent or is it just a glitch w/ the new servers or systems and what not (how the poll updates when you refresh)?
---
Supporting Super Smash Brothers Melee for the 2004 Spring Contest going ALL THE WAY.
It's tankalicous, like DK.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:54:07 PM | Message Detail
A glitch that lasted for weeks and that CJayC somehow isn't aware of.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:54:36 PM | Message Detail
We assume that it's a glitch and will be fixed when CjayC gets around to it.
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''
From: Zaphod H | Posted: 5/16/2004 8:56:29 PM | Message Detail
Ah, thanks for the info Slowflake, TRE...

Just haven't really bothered w/ any of the recent matches since most were blowouts.
---
Supporting Super Smash Brothers Melee for the 2004 Spring Contest going ALL THE WAY.
It's tankalicous, like DK.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:07:41 PM | Message Detail
Since I wasn't here, who led the night vote between MGS and FFT?
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:08:30 PM | Message Detail
Last night? MGS.

Tonight? Sonic/Samus era nostalgics.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:12:07 PM | Message Detail
So MGS could still grab that last minute pull from the night voters to make this a safer bet for MGS, right? That is waht tends to happen, it seems.
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:13:58 PM | Message Detail
The votes just after a poll starts are some times very different from the votes just before a poll ends. So FFT still has a good chance at getting the night votes for the win.
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:14:03 PM | Message Detail
Well, Samus took the night vote, while Sonic then took over again with the morning vote, If I've heard correctly...and Samus caught up by several hours before the end and was 50/50 until it stopped...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:15:38 PM | Message Detail
Actually, I think Sonic took the first part of the night vote as well.

Also, remember that DK took the first part, but dropped the second one and almost the match. Against Duck Hunt, that is.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: cyko | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:15:44 PM | Message Detail
well, if today's match has taught us one thing, it's that we have no clue what will happen th rest o f this tournament.

exceptions that we do know:

1) SMB3 will lay waste to Final Fantasy.

2) Zelda 1 will crush Tetris

3) FFX will beat FFTA without too much trouble.

other than those three matches, the rest could all be really close or they could all be blowouts for all we know. without the stats that we had for last year's contest (from the year before that), everything we have from this point out is pretty much guesses based on small observations.

that being said, i'm guessing that Castlevania: SotN will edge out Goldeneye in a match similar to today's match.

---
Current Score: 47/50 (through FF7 vs. Xeno)
cyko's 256 Game Contest: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14081056
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:20:57 PM | Message Detail
exceptions that we do know:

1) SMB3 will lay waste to Final Fantasy.


How is this a certainty? The other two make sense but how do you figure that this is certain?
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 49/50, Next Winner: Metal Gear Solid
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:21:43 PM | Message Detail
what a nail biter...
---
ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:23:11 PM | Message Detail
Actually I'm not sure we can be sure on Tetris either... it's not like there's anything to go by in that four pack.
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:24:40 PM | Message Detail
I'd love to see Tetris pull an upset. That would really make my day.
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 49/50, Next Winner: Metal Gear Solid
From: JaKyL25 | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:25:04 PM | Message Detail
Observation:

The common opinion is that the GoldenEye vs. SotN match tomorrow will be close, with a majority of people picking GoldenEye to win, correct?

Could today's match have some bearing on that?

As close as it is, many people will be staying on until the finish. At that point, the new poll will be put up, and these people (myself included) will go ahead and cast their vote in the next match before going to bed.

Being hardcore gamers (obviously, if they're gonna stay up to watch the climax of a video game poll on a website), I would think that the majority of votes would go to SotN. Especially if MGS loses, if such a thing as a Konami fanboy exists.

Granted, most of these people would vote SotN later in the day anyway, but giving it a substantial lead at the beginning of the match could create somewhat of a buffer for the game that GoldenEye might not be able to overcome.

Just a thought. Probably not true. But oh well.
---
"If you want Bells & Whistles, I suggest you attend the Circus."--Lance F'n Storm
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:26:16 PM | Message Detail
It's only going to be visible for the first minute. Remember how KH took a massive lead over SC with that hardcore vote, then SC came back within seconds?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 045/050 --- Matches: 36/41 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: MGS
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:26:52 PM | Message Detail
I'm very tempted to stay up that late myself. Not to see the end of this match but to see the beginning of SotN's dominance.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:27:48 PM | Message Detail
You'll be waiting a long time then, Chichiri...how long can you go without sleep?
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 49/50, Next Winner: Metal Gear Solid
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/16/2004 9:32:19 PM | Message Detail
Well, I'm currently on pacific time, so staying up til midnight isn't so bad. I did it for SotN's last match.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 5/16/2004 10:58:39 PM | Message Detail
Just playing SotN doesn't mean that a person thinks it's a better game. I've played both, and although I think SotN is awesome and is ranked at #15 on my favorite games list, Goldeneye is ranked at #5. I just had too much fun playing multiplayer with friends, and singleplayer is fun to this date. Goldeneye was a great game, and it's not in this contest just because it sold well.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/17/2004 4:36:41 AM | Message Detail
2 new updates in the all time records

All Time Records

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84.60% - Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 83.68% - Mega Man vs. Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 82.70% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77.92% - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76.84% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 75.42% - Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 75.28% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 74.08% - Legend of Zelda vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84196 - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 80505 - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 79918 - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77511 - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 74682 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 73838 - Crono vs. Tom Nook (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 70809 - Sephiroth vs. Max Payne (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.04% - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
1) 0.04% - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from Spring 2004 Contest
3) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 0.14% - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 0.22% - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 0.34% - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 0.60% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 0.96% - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 1.02% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 34 - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 38 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from Spring 2004 Contest
3) 115 - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 137 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 143 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 277 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 373 - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 650 - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 968 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 987 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 147637 - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 133005 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 129703 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 124443 - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 124192 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 123587 - Sephiroth vs. Mario (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 118961 - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 116190 - Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 115738 - Ganondorf vs. Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 113881 - Zelda vs. Lara Croft (I) from 2003 Summer Contest

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 47/50 MGS vs. FFT
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/17/2004 4:37:05 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 50816 - Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 51889 - Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 52419 - Bomberman vs. Kane (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 52618 - Donkey Kong vs. Bub (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 52874 - Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 53213 - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 53920 - Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 54997 - Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 55392 - Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 56361 - Tina Armstrong vs. Gordon Freeman (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 94086 - Cloud Strife (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 92998 - Link (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 92894 - Legend of Zelda (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
4) 91905 - Mega Man (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 90364 - Sephiroth (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 89595 - Sephiroth (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 89189 - Mario (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 88469 - Crono (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 86938 - Final Fantasy (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 5257 - Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 5414 - Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 8602 - Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 8802 - AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 9559 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 11076 - Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 11145 - CATS (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 11292 - Pitfall Harry (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 71438 - Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 66434 - Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 64713 - Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 59865 - Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 57078 - Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 56258 - Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 55322 - Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 54529 - Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 53716 - Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 50457 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 30662 - Strider Hiryu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 30711 - Pikachu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 31160 - Kyo Kusanagi (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 31798 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 32301 - Serious Sam (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 32602 - Donkey Kong (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 32607 - Pac-Man (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 33160 - Duke Nukem (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 33516 - Alucard (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 33602 - Sonic the Hedgehog (II) from 2002 Summer Contest

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 47/50 MGS vs. FFT
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/17/2004 4:37:51 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)*

1) 99.1% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 98.0% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 96.4% - Link vs. Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 95.9% - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 95.6% - Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Pitfall Harry (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 95.6% - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 95.4% - Link vs. Fox McCloud (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 94.9% - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 94.2% - Donkey Kong vs. Bub (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 94.1% - Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)*

1) 6.0% - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 12.8% - Link vs. Mario (VI) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 13.4% - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 14.5% - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 14.6% - Crono vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 17.3% - Scorpion vs. Pac-Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 21.7% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 24.2% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 28.8% - Alucard vs. Duke Nukem (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 30.6% - Link vs. Sephiroth (V) from 2002 Summer Contest

*2004 Spring Contest predictions haven’t been released yet

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 47/50 MGS vs. FFT
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/17/2004 4:39:51 AM | Message Detail
Yesterday`s match proved that BOP numbers will mean less as this contest goes forward, that`s for sure.

Oh, and before I read this topic, I have a request. Tanya was filling me in on everything that was going on between 11PM-12AM EST through text messages and a phone call on my break. Apparently, MGS spiked to a 100 vote lead at 11:45, but was cut down to 70 votes by midnight. I`m asking a lot, but can I get as much detail as possible as to what happened in the next three hours? This is for my PCA, and full credit will be given to whoever helps me out here.
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/17/2004 4:45:24 AM | Message Detail
Remember how KH took a massive lead over SC with that hardcore vote, then SC came back within seconds?

A lead of 14-5 is massive? I was refreshing the hell out of that poll early on, and it was dead even after that early 14-5 advantage.
---
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/17/2004 5:08:43 AM | Message Detail
I just realized something:

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 34 - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 38 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Final Fantasy Tactics (II) from Spring 2004 Contest
3) 115 - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 137 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 143 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 277 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 373 - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 650 - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 968 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 987 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest


With the lone exception of Mario vs Cloud, I predicted all of those matches correctly. And I would have gotten Mario vs Cloud right had PGCN not stepped in. Seriously, I didn`t notice how lucky I`ve been in the tight matches until about 40 seconds ago. Wow.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/17/2004 5:15:21 AM | Message Detail
With the lone exception of Mario vs Cloud, I predicted all of those matches correctly. And I would have gotten Mario vs Cloud right had PGCN not stepped in. Seriously, I didn`t notice how lucky I`ve been in the tight matches until about 40 seconds ago. Wow.

That's not bad going at all...

It's looking like this match is going Goldeneye's way, keeping up my chances of a near perfect 32/64 division (Perfect Dark), which would be somewhat of a shock considering some of the poor decisions I've made in the other divisions... question is whether it can stay ahead of 55% to keep me in the top 10 of the spread betting tourney. Out of interest, what's the general feeling of the board for tomorrow's match in terms of percentages? Even if it is Ocarina of Time, I can't see Mario getting tripled up as the line says...
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Jon Thomson - 34/42, 42/52 - today: Goldeneye, tomorrow: Ocarina of Time
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/17/2004 5:17:25 AM | Message Detail
Honestly, who knows. SM64 could score anywhere between 20%-45%.
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Starion | Posted: 5/17/2004 5:22:27 AM | Message Detail
I can't really give the details but let's just say that the next three hours had a lot of back and forth lead changes. If I recall correctly neither managed to gain more than a 30 point lead over the other (this was with the constant update.) It was dead even (literally) until around 10 minutes or so before the end that MGS suddenly jumped 30 votes ahead in 3 seconds.
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Sp2004 Score:39/42 Today's Pick: SMW
Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/17/2004 6:05:44 AM | Message Detail
Tactics fell by only 30 some votes? Geesh...

Wow..what a performance by Ramza and the gang...I saw it hit lead for a couple minutes til MGS took it back and kept it by the slimmest of margins...stayed up til there was like 2 hrs to go, and hoped for a fanboy miracle. Alas, MGS won, and it deserves it cause its a worthy game...but still, my bracket! *sniffle*

Oh well, the rest of Round 2 are easy points...though I hate seeing Goldeneye win even though I picked it. CV is just WAY better..duh!
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SCK24: 46/52 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/17/2004 6:18:37 AM | Message Detail
Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the first true Nintendofest here in the "Golden Age" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXXIV

(7)Mario 64 vs (2)Zelda Ocarina

Steve's Prediction: Zelda by 70%
Steve's Bracket: Zelda
Newbie's Pick: Zelda Trailer from E3
Upset Chances: Link > Mario = No Upset

Comments: Here we have a twinbill of the 64's finest games (Sorry Quest 64 and Vigilante 8 lol) with Mario 64 taking on Zelda Ocarina.

This is the first match in this tourney between these two really popular and beloved Nintendo heavyweights. Though there will be more Mario vs Zelda matches, this one falls earlier than it deserves to. A pity...

Anyone who has a 64 played both these games. They probably loved them both too. They took their series in new directions, and evolved them from the traditional styles to something new and improved, while maintaining the fun tradition of their ancestors. For all Nintendites, this match hurts their inner consciousness...pains their gaming souls...strikes to the very core of their being even!

It should be closer than it will end up...but due to the better seed, brackets, bragging rights, the RPG bend, etc..Zelda will beat Mario pretty soundly, setting off a tidal wave of "Zelda is Champ" posts by the silly Nintendites. Then all these Nintendites will do it again when Wind Waker wins, and SSBM, and well you get the idea of the level of their collective intelligence.

The King of Platformers will focus his resources on his strongest battalion, leaving the right flank here lightly defended, for he knows it will be overrun by the Hyrulian Knights, who have lobbied the fanboys to their cause...

Ride Yoshi Ride...to SMB3's next match!

Why Zelda Will Win: Voting blocks: Nintendites, bracket voters, RPG/Adventure gamers, E3 new Zelda trailer droolers.

Why Mario Wont Win: As good as this game is and played and popular and launch title and all that...it cant compete with Zelda in the hearts of a majority of Nintendites. It would beat every other game in this bracket except FF7 though...

Probable Results: Link shall plant a bomb in front of Mario and BOOM! a secret passage to the Sweet 16 will be revealed! 70-30 split.

Best Bosses: Mario: Bowser: Was a challenge for once! Well sorta. Zelda: Ganon: Same as above.
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SCK24: 46/52 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: creativename | Posted: 5/17/2004 6:52:46 AM | Message Detail
I honestly never thought Samus vs. Sonic would be challenged in terms of closeness. This one almost beat it.

As for the updates, you can find them here:

http://www.sc2k4.com/update.php?pollid=1642
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
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