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Spring 2004 Contest
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Contest Stats & Discussion - Part 16
From: creativename | Posted: 5/11/2004 8:36:45 PM | Message Detail
I would shocked if A Link to the Past can get close to 70%, I was just saying that it would have to happen for people to be surprised, given the expectations for the match.

Right now I'm leaning towards A Link to the Past underperforming expectations. I was leaning towards it surpassing expectations before, but expectations has gone pretty high now.

Still, with SMB3's PWNage of Metroid, and Metroid Prime's performance against Half-Life (which I think is due to Half-Life being very strong, but we can't know for sure), a 60% win for A Link to the Past is very possible.

And I don't think a 65% win for A Link to the Past would guarantee a Finals appearance. Just like a 70% win for SMW doesn't mean that SMW is unstoppable. If A Link to the Past does decimate Super Metroid, it'll probably be due to unforeseen weakness on the part of Super Metroid. I, personally, don't think Super Metroid will be weak though.

I still don't expect anything out of that. Zelda 9 stole the show, yes, but how many people know about it among those who vote?

Not only that, but can you actually imagine more than, say, 5 people actually changing their vote based on something like that? This is why things like this have no impact. The people that care, already have their votes set. There isn't much that can affect who people will vote for.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/11/2004 8:36:54 PM | Message Detail
That Zelda trailer was pretty incredible though, sent shivers down my spine, it would be great if it proves to be an epic game.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.-Old Klingon Proverb
From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 5/11/2004 8:37:31 PM | Message Detail
Wasn't Super Mario Sunshine released on the day of Mario vs. Cloud? Honestly, if that doesn't make the case that upcoming releases don't have much of an impact on a character's popularity, I don't know what does.

Kingdom Hearts is the only exception, but there's a reason for that. It expanded the FF fanbase because not everybody bought it for the cameos. Just about everybody who buys a new Mario or Zelda game was a fan before.
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Spring Contest 2004: 40/42
Today: (5)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 over (4)Super Mario World
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 5/11/2004 8:55:21 PM | Message Detail
Whoever said this contest makes less and less sense, I agree 100% - ever since SC/KH it looked that way.

That was me! Yes, I've been (kind of) quoted in a matchup analysis! I can die a happy man now.

Tomorrow should give us a much better feel than we've had for how strong these Zeldas really are. Finally we have a matchup with solid past results to judge against, as Link took down Samus with 62.06% of the vote last summer. Should LttP do worse here, we'll know that only Ocarina has the possibility of being as strong as Link, the character. If it can manage a win of 63% or more, I guess we could say that neither Prime nor Super is as strong as Samus herself. But if it can somehow put this thing up into the 65%+ range (which I have a gut feeling that it will), then... I don't know what.

I guess both LttP and Ocarina would be stronger than Link? Seems impossible, but it wouldn't make sense for SFF to suck up any more votes here than it would in a character matchup. Or maybe the million+ selling re-release on the GBA played a role? Well, one thing we will know for sure with a 65+ performance is that we'll be 1/4 of the way to that all-Zelda Final Four.

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the-elite.net
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/11/2004 9:16:53 PM | Message Detail
Or maybe the million+ selling re-release on the GBA played a role?

If that does play a role, then this will indeed be total PWNage.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: redline15 | Posted: 5/11/2004 10:07:46 PM | Message Detail
the three reasons why this match should be affected by series hype more than others:

-gamefaqs voters are not "casual" gamers. people here pay more attention to gaming news than the average fan. not many will have actually seen the zelda trailer by tomorrow...but a fair number will have heard about it.

-both lttp and super metroid are old games. the rerelease helped lttp...but most people still haven't played them lately. these people might not remember either game quickly...and if they're already excited about zelda, they will probably vote for lttp before even thinking about super metroid.

-the new zelda is a bit higher-profile than most of the examples mentioned by cyko (wario ware, soul calibur 2, etc). and those that are higher profile (mario sunshine) still don't have a good reputation. the new zelda hasn't had time to build a bad reputation. it's just had time to build up hype...and rather quickly at that.

...but hey, why listen to me.
after all...i have super metroid winning this match...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/11/2004 11:43:41 PM | Message Detail
70% against Super Metroid, Super friggin Metroid! I think me going around saying LttP being OoT`s equal just came true here tonight... GO LTTP!
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
But as the light fades... Will the hero rise again? Or will darkness reign?
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/11/2004 11:43:53 PM | Message Detail
All-Nintendo Final Four here we go! ^_^
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
But as the light fades... Will the hero rise again? Or will darkness reign?
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 5/11/2004 11:58:30 PM | Message Detail
And here we go again! A 70% victory is looking pretty much in the bag, and I'm once again at a loss for words.

Assuming Samus = her most popular game, LttP (not OoT, but LttP, mind you) is 8% stronger than Link. 8%! It's looking more and more like nothing can stand in the way of that all-Zelda Final Four now... Can anyone explain this?

- Possibly the re-release on the GBA is helping, but it couldn't possibly be helping out THIS much. I think what we're beginning to see now is what was brought up long before the contest started

- Nintendo games are much, much stronger than their characters. People are going to identify with a character with a strong storyline and history, and so RPGs (mainly by Square) have naturally dominated in the Summer. But when it comes time to pick a best game, Nintendo, but especially Mario and Zelda, shine brightest.

I think from now on I'm making my normal prediction in the Oracle, then tacking on an extra 5% every time there's a Nintendo game involved.

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the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
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From: Tarrot | Posted: 5/12/2004 12:24:57 AM | Message Detail
I would like to note that Zelda did have a game released yesterday at E3, which I think is playing a role. Plus, I'm going to say that Samus >>>> Metroid by far, even Super Metroid.

Still, FFVI will probably pull a blowout tomorrow, which will get everyone off the LttP bandwagon. It should do at least 70%, I'm predicting 75%.
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/12/2004 12:30:35 AM | Message Detail
For people to consider FF6 as even a minor threat to LttP, nothing short of 90% tomorrow is acceptable.
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Contest Score: 44/192
Next Pick : A Link to the Past
From: Holgu | Posted: 5/12/2004 12:32:06 AM | Message Detail
I think a good 75% would still create cause for concern...
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It's the words that we speak, that make a man a freak...
The attitude, the ignorance, all reasons that we seek - Wargasm
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/12/2004 12:37:16 AM | Message Detail
72.02% and on the rise...
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
But as the light fades... Will the hero rise again? Or will darkness reign?
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/12/2004 12:39:27 AM | Message Detail
75% against doom wouldn't scare Gunstar Heroes!
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Contest Score: 44/192
Next Pick : A Link to the Past
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/12/2004 12:39:46 AM | Message Detail
Err I meant Tetris
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Contest Score: 44/192
Next Pick : A Link to the Past
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/12/2004 1:13:52 AM | Message Detail
A Link to the Past would have to win with 70% or Super Metroid would have to get 45+%.

I think the latter is much more likely than the former, myself.


It looks like the former proved to be true, very true. =)

If LttP gets 70%, scratch that, if it doubles Super Metroid, we might as well end the tournament there.

Should we? =P But really OoT = LttP is basically deadset wouldn`t you say?


In all seriousness though, it looks like Nintendo franchises are doing amazing with each and everytime they are up. I have yet to be disappointed in the Zelda franchise, the Mario franchise is exploding, and the Metroid franchise is just there. Its looking great for an all-Nintendo final four but even moreso I`m wondering if that all-Zelda final four is almost set now. SMB3 is the only one who I`d say is going to stop it, because if OoT happens to be stronger than LttP thats just crazy. I don`t think OoT will prove to be that much stronger than LttP if not direct equals to each other, what with LttP putting up 72.25% right now against someone like Super Metroid. I`ve got a great feeling that we`ll be seeing Link to the Past in the finals against Ocarina of Time for the title. I really, really think thats whats going to happen the momentum from Square to Nintendo over that 7 month period seems like its playing out. I`ve always been under the idea that the shift in "power" had gone back to Nintendo but these last two matches have really proven this.

My prediction as of now? I`m seeing SMW take out CT, LttP take out FFVI without much trouble, and LttP knock out SMW and SMB3 on its way to the finals. LttP just looks ridiculously strong, I don`t know if FFVI can even counter something of this magnitude, seriously...

All in all though, I have to say I`m loving every minute of this. The brand-new Zelda trailer today, LttP proving to be insanely strong, Nintendo having a killer lineup at E3, Nintendo doing amazing here at GameFAQs, man this has been awesome. And furthermore I passed one of my finals with an A, ah sheer happiness... =)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
But as the light fades... Will the hero rise again? Or will darkness reign?
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/12/2004 2:25:33 AM | Message Detail
Just cracked 73.01%. =)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
But as the light fades... Will the hero rise again? Or will darkness reign?
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/12/2004 3:03:45 AM | Message Detail
Well, this sort of blowout is very disappointing, and I fear that Doom won't even get 10% tomorrow. Zelda or no Zelda, for Super Metroid to be pretty much tripled up is a great shame, and sends the credibility of this contest even further into minus quantities.
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Jon Thomson - 32/38, 38/44 - today: Super Metroid, tomorrow: Doom
From: Tai | Posted: 5/12/2004 3:42:53 AM | Message Detail
Oh wow. LttP is gaining percentage fast...it'll get to 75% easy. :-)
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Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.
From: torey luvullo | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:03:36 AM | Message Detail
well, this is a fine kettle of fish.

i am informed that occam saw his shadow while shaving this morning, so we are in for 6 more weeks of preferring the simple explanation. the simple explanation for this contest's results is as follows:

this is a contest of game name recognition. anything named 'zelda'...'mario'...'final fantasy' wins big against anything not named the above. if none of those names are involved, then it is up for grabs.

this means my bracket, which contains the dread name "chrono trigger" has no chance to survive, and should make its time.

maybe i am overreacting, but to see zelda dismantle metroid so effortlessly is ...disheartening.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:07:41 AM | Message Detail
Well, SBM3 doesn't concern me anymore. I was afraid it would get to the finals, but now it has no chance of beating A Link to the Past, I'd say. It's performance against Metroid isn't looking as impressive as it did originally.

It should also probably be a slight underdog against The Legend of Zelda. The Legend of Zelda's performance still looks ridiculous.

Final Fantasy VII looks like the best hope to prevent an all-Zelda Final Four.

Of course, do you think all those clueless anti-Final Fantasy fanboys who were whining about an all-Final Fantasy Final Four, which was always impossibly unlikely, will now rally the boards behind Final Fantasy VII in hopes of preventing late round boredom?

Didn't think so =o)

But really OoT = LttP is basically deadset wouldn`t you say?

Eh? I doubt this. A Link to the Past is probably marginally weaker than Ocarina of Time.

I really, really think thats whats going to happen the momentum from Square to Nintendo over that 7 month period

I doubt momentum has to do with anything. This probably would've played out very similarly if had been taken place last Summer instead of this Spring.


In order for Chrono Trigger to even have a chance against A Link to the Past, SMRPG would have to be stronger than Super Metroid. Which seems preposterous in so many ways. Unless Super Metroid was significantly hurt by SFF, which is questionable. It would make sense but there's no real evidence in favor of it. Upper tier contenders don't get affected by SFF anyway, so Super Metroid isn't one, no matter what.

While Chrono Trigger is definitely looking like a longshot to win the division right now, I still wouldn't count it out. Again, the Metroid franchise appears to be massively weak relative to other franchises. If Final Fantasy VI gets close to 80% against Doom it's right back in this too. I'm expecting about 77%, though I could see it going as low as 64%.

The famed Nintendo/Square/RPG bias of the voters is looking instead like Zelda/Mario/Final Fantasy bias.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:15:11 AM | Message Detail
this is a contest of game name recognition. anything named 'zelda'...'mario'...'final fantasy' wins big against anything not named the above. if none of those names are involved, then it is up for grabs.

Ah, you posted while I was posting. Were you quoting this from somebody or were you saying this? It does appear to hold.

So one wonders what the impact of Chrono Trigger's performance against a game with 'mario' in the title means :) That, really, is the big question. Is Chrono Trigger going to get destroyed by SMW or A Link to the Past? Or is SMRPG just very, very strong, perhaps stronger than Super Metroid? We can only speculate; our guesses won't even be that educated.


Note that for A Link to the Past:Phantasy Star IV :: The Legend of Zelda:Phantasy Star to hold, The Legend of Zelda would have to beat Final Fantasy with 82.1%. Which I'm actually not dismissing out of hand ;), but I'd still expect Final Fantasy to get 27% at a a minimum against The Legend of Zelda, and my actual expectations would be about 35%.

I wonder why Phantasy Star was so strong? Almost 40% against Contra still doesn't make much sense to me, especially considering how pathetic it looks like Phantasy Star IV was.

Note that while Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy VI do look like a massive underdogs at this point, you can't call the division yet. Not after we've been surprised so many times.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:20:09 AM | Message Detail
The strength of fighting games has become a big issue as well.

If Street Fighter 2 was decently strong, Chrono Trigger still looks good. Same for Mortal Kombat and Final Fantasy VI. The Kindgom Hearts vs. Starcraft match rides on the strength of Soul Calibur, especially relative to Halo.

I would've thought that Mortal Kombat would easily beat Doom, but people seem to have much more faith in Doom than they did in Mortal Kombat. Perhaps this will shed some light on it.

Though, with Super Metroid's performance here, PC games aren't looking too great. Half-Life might've just exploited Metroid franchise weakness. This also causes concern for Starcraft fans.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: torey luvullo | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:25:39 AM | Message Detail
i made it up myself, as a pretend quote from occam himself, creativename.

you are, as usual, eloquent and persuasive. you say what i was trying to far better.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:33:59 AM | Message Detail
WHOA THERE.

LttP is going to the finals, and there's no stopping it.

And to anyone that still thought Prime would beat WW, well, buh-bye.

I'm curious to see how FF7 and OoT stack up... if OoT pulls that kind of crap against SM64, there's absolutely NOTHING to stop an all-Zelda Final 4.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 037/042 --- Matches: 32/37 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMW
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:38:23 AM | Message Detail
And oops, my bad on the Zelda numbering. I sorta thought OoA and OoS were not unlike the Pokémon games, well I guess you know what I mean by that.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 037/042 --- Matches: 32/37 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMW
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:45:43 AM | Message Detail
if OoT pulls that kind of crap against SM64, there's absolutely NOTHING to stop an all-Zelda Final 4.

I still wouldn't take Ocarina of Time's victory over Final Fantasy VII for granted, even if Ocarina of Time gets 70% there. If Metal Gear Solid gets over 40% against it (or if Xenogears can break 30%), then there's cause to be concerned about Final Fantasy VII, but not until then.



...and I just realized something horrifying. What if the match tomorrow has a stupendously ugly pic of Kefka? O_o
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:48:05 AM | Message Detail
The pic's already out, and it's just a Terra sprite. Nothing too exciting.

Though if I was CJayC, I'd have put Lettuce Kefka on there for now, then just before the match I'd have changed it to the laughing Kefka sprite. BEST. PRANK. EVER.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 037/042 --- Matches: 32/37 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMW
From: torey luvullo | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:48:51 AM | Message Detail
i miss lettuce kefka. i hope we see it again this summer.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:51:48 AM | Message Detail
I would've thought that Mortal Kombat would easily beat Doom, but people seem to have much more faith in Doom than they did in Mortal Kombat. Perhaps this will shed some light on it.

Er...by "this" I meant tomorrow's match. And then there's no "perhaps" about it, heh.

This could also be relevant for Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy VII, in terms of giving us insight into the strength of PC games. There's a tendency to perhaps try and conclude too much from such things, but if Doom is very much stronger or weaker than Mortal Kombat that might lend some insight into if Suikoden II is stronger than Fallout 2. Before the contest, I thought Suikoden II was very probably stronger because it's a console game, but PC games looked good in the first round. We might have to re-evaluate that performance somewhat.

Or not; again, maybe I'm trying to infer too much from what we have.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 4:59:57 AM | Message Detail
The pic's already out, and it's just a Terra sprite. Nothing too exciting.

Ah, nice :)

Though if I was CJayC, I'd have put Lettuce Kefka on there for now, then just before the match I'd have changed it to the laughing Kefka sprite. BEST. PRANK. EVER.

That would be truly hilarious. Great idea.

I must say that Doom certainly won't have the pic factor that Mortal Kombat did, if that matters. While Terra's sprite is nothing special, Mortal Kombat's pic was just kickass.

And if the pics mattered, Doom would get utterly humiliated by Shadow :)

While I wasn't nearly as much of a fan of Shadow as most, he would no doubt be a force in the character contests. I'm still wondering how he didn't make it. (forget the 16 seed jokes, how do two Golden Sun characters make it ahead of Shadow??) Shadow would be strong due to the ninja factor by itself, let alone coming from Final Fantasy VI.

Funny thing about ninjas...I'd expect Ryu Haybusa to perform similarly to SF2 Ryu, perhaps a little worse; and I'd also expect Shadow the ninja to perform similarly to Shadow the Hedgehog, perhaps a little worse.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:01:35 AM | Message Detail
Haybusa

*^^Hayabusa.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: TyRaNuS | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:05:56 AM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b40.jpg
The Doom pic looks pretty good to me. At least better than the terra sprite.
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Currently playing- Tales of Phantasia Finished:NBA Street Vol2
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:07:11 AM | Message Detail
I love how all of you people kept shooting me down when I kept telling you all that I was an idiot for listening to you when it came to changing my picks to SMB3 beating Zelda 1 and Chrono Trigger beating LTTP.

Now when both of them lose and my bracket gets shot to hell even though I had both of those matches in my bracket originally, a day or two of not speaking to any of you is in order. Though I do think SFF has something to do with this matchup. Most SNES gamers that have played both games would pick LTTP, no question. And don`t argue with me, because a 75-25 beatdown is right in front of you.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:10:02 AM | Message Detail
Don't count me in. I've been preaching about The Legend of Zelda since Day One :)

And while I stated numerous times that Chrono Trigger was an intelligent pick for champion if you truly wanted to win it all, I also said that it was over-favored to win its division.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:10:50 AM | Message Detail
I can understand Metroid being a victim of SFF, but Super? That sounds wrong, especially since there was no SFF in Link/Samus.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 039/044 --- Matches: 33/38 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: LttP
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:17:31 AM | Message Detail
I can understand Metroid being a victim of SFF, but Super? That sounds wrong, especially since there was no SFF in Link/Samus.

Yeah. And lack of SFF in one probably implies lack of SFF in the other.


Here's a question:

What do people think will be the strongest non-Nintendo, non-Square game in the extrapolated standings?

I'm thinking it'll be Metal Gear Solid, and easily. In fact, I think MGS 2 might actually be second! That or Goldeneye, I think.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:29:19 AM | Message Detail
Yeah. And lack of SFF in one probably implies lack of SFF in the other.

If that was sarcasm... think about it. Super Metroid is widely considered to be the best Metroid, while LttP is seen as a second to OoT. In that optic, wouldn't you expect the match to be closer than Link/Samus was?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 039/044 --- Matches: 33/38 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: LttP
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:29:42 AM | Message Detail
Hey, wait a minute...there's one thing here that doesn't make sense.

A Link to the Past getting 75% didn't catch me totally off-guard, but this means that Gunstar Heroes is stronger than Phantasy Star IV?

W...T...F !?
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:31:21 AM | Message Detail
Heh, if you check my rankings by 4-pack on the Excel file, you'll already find quite a few oddities, notably how badly Shining Force trails the Simpsons.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 039/044 --- Matches: 33/38 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: LttP
From: Starion | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:34:11 AM | Message Detail
Maybe you should place them in tiers instead of individually ranking their strength? Unless of course the difference between Gunstar Heroes and PS4 was significant.
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Sp2004 Score:39/42 Today's Pick: SMW
Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:34:27 AM | Message Detail
If that was sarcasm... think about it. Super Metroid is widely considered to be the best Metroid, while LttP is seen as a second to OoT. In that optic, wouldn't you expect the match to be closer than Link/Samus was?

Sarcasm? Certainly not.

I was saying that if you think SMB3 vs. Metroid wasn't affected by SFF, then it makes little sense to think A Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid was, and vice versa.

If one was affected by SFF, then clearly the other likely was as well.

As for Link/Samus, the character contest proxy has been put to rest long ago. Samus is clearly much stronger than her games, relative to other franchises, as is Sonic. So that by itself is no sure indication of SFF. Nor, of course, is lack of significant SFF in Link vs. Samus an indication of lack of SFF here.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:35:40 AM | Message Detail
This contest makes no sense. Voting patterns seriously change from division to division, and everything is all screwed up as the contest moves forward.

If you ask me, Nintendo currently owns this contest. No question about it.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:43:01 AM | Message Detail
Heh, and I was the first to theorize long ago that where we were all expecting Square, Nintendo would stand. The prophecy hath come true!

Creativename: You're forgetting about Pac-Man... would you say that Pac-Man the character is MORE POPULAR THAN HIS GAME?!? That's why we thought of SFF for SMB3/Metroid in the first place. Plus, Metroid being a weaker entry in the Nintendo lineup can make it subject to SFF. Super Metroid doesn't fit this description, or at least much less.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 039/044 --- Matches: 33/38 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: LttP
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:43:23 AM | Message Detail
Heh, if you check my rankings by 4-pack on the Excel file, you'll already find quite a few oddities, notably how badly Shining Force trails the Simpsons.

Ah, interesting. Nice work there. I don't think Shining Force being weaker than the Simpsons is surprising though. Shining Force is very obscure. I'd heard of it, but not too much.

I don't see those games on the rankings sheet though...?

If you ask me, Nintendo currently owns this contest. No question about it.

Ulti, you know better than to jump to conclusions after all this :)

It certainly seems as if at least 3 Nintendo games will make the Final Four (Division 8 is a lock, and at least 2 out of the other 3 divisions is likely, whichever 2 they end up being). But I don't think it's assured that a Nintendo game will actually win.

I mean, you can't seriously discount Final Fantasy VII already. It's had one match, and hasn't even underperformed yet!
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:48:09 AM | Message Detail
I can't wait to see the rankings when it's all said and done... that pseudo-bracket is going to be a ***** to seed properly.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 039/044 --- Matches: 33/38 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: LttP
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:50:12 AM | Message Detail
would you say that Pac-Man the character is MORE POPULAR THAN HIS GAME?!? That's why we thought of SFF for SMB3/Metroid in the first place.

Why would Pac-Man being stronger than his game be surprising? He's a cute, appealing character, while the game is ancient. Pac-Man is not at all the reason I thought SFF might've been present in that match. I could easily see Pac-Man the game being a completely trivial opponent. Extrapolated weakness of Pac-Man is no indication of SFF in SMB3 vs. Metroid.

The fact that Metroid/Super Metroid both underperformed expectations can indicate SFF, but this is not entirely convincing, as it makes more sense to just assume the whole franchise is pretty weak. That does make it more sensitive to SFF perhaps, but this would apply to both games. There is little chance SFF affected, or did not affect, one game while doing the opposite with the other.

Plus, Metroid being a weaker entry in the Nintendo lineup can make it subject to SFF. Super Metroid doesn't fit this description, or at least much less

I thought we'd put this "weaker entry" stuff to rest? Metroid was very popular back in the day; the Metroid franchise did not take off with Super Metroid. Obviously, I expect Super Metroid to be significantly stronger because it's SNES--which is why I think SMB3 has no shot at the Finals, nor does the Division 8 winner, since I can't see The Legend of Zelda beating A Link to the Past--but Super Metroid is not some uber-massive jump from Metroid.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/12/2004 5:59:14 AM | Message Detail
By the way, is there a poll that actually proves that Super Metroid is the most popular title?
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I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: cyko | Posted: 5/12/2004 6:01:58 AM | Message Detail
wow. just......... wow.

this is the first match result that made my jaw hit the floor. maybe it's just because i love both games so much. or maybe because Metroid was supposed to be one of Nintendo's biggest franchises. i honestly thought this would be a close match. but 75%???!!! good grief.

i'm not willing to call LTTP the champion of the division just yet, but after dismantling Super Metroid so easily, i've gotta give it credit for being the new favorite. i still say that the all Zelda Final Four will not happen though. the other three are looking dang strong, but SMB3 will not be stopped.

FF3/6 had better break 80% against Doom.........

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Current Score: 41/44 (through SMW vs. Sonic 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: creativename | Posted: 5/12/2004 6:10:41 AM | Message Detail
By the way, is there a poll that actually proves that Super Metroid is the most popular title?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1528

I actually wouldn't call this total "proof", but obviously Super Metroid not being the strongest Metroid makes little sense. And that one PotD about your favorite company foreshadowed the weakness of Genesis games, I guess.

but SMB3 will not be stopped

At this point, it appears that SBM3 has an even shot to win the division at best. I'd say the difference in popularity between A Link to the Past and The Legend of Zelda is less than the difference between Metroid and Super Metroid, so we could think the The Legend of Zelda would PWN Metroid by as much as, or by more than, SMB3 did.

If I had to pick a favorite in that match, it would be The Legend of Zelda at this point, no question.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
http://SC2K4.com/frog
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