Tomorrow's match is one of the most important of the 2nd round, in terms of telling us about the future.

I am afraid that Chrono Trigger might become a disappointment here. It's performance against Secret of Mana wasn't something to be overly concerned about, but a poor showing against SMRPG here could foreshadow bad things for it. And I could see SMRPG giving it a run, which I wouldn't have thought before the contest.

However, if SF2 does equal Ryu, then perhaps a "poor" showing for Chrono Trigger might be more impressive than it seems. Crono would only be expected to get 40%-46% against Ryu.

I don't think the character contest proxy thing works well here though, and if Chrono Trigger gets less than 57%, its 3rd round match becomes very interesting (whether it faces Sonic 2 or SMW).

If it gets 65%, which it might be hard pressed to do, then it probably establishes itself as a very major powerhouse. I am very concerned for Chrono Trigger here though.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com

However, CT will need to be much more powerful than Crono to beat out LttP.

I don't think we should get overly worried about SMW or Sonic 2 just yet, but LttP is a HUGE notch above these two. CT WILL need to get near 60% to show it has a chance there.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 033/038 --- Matches: 30/35 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Tetris

CT won't beat LttP, as FFIII will beat it before CT gets the chance.

CN, you're free to speak in general terms if you want, but you're not free to waste my time. I was discussing a very specific circumstance, Nintendo Power's Power Polls, and comment "in general" do not apply to the given circumstance. Likewise there is no need for me to say "there's no clear favorite between SMB3 and LoZ, but Alucard is great!". It's unnecessary information, and I don't want it. There was one goal, discuss the validity of the power polls. When I state clearly only one section of 3 is based on actual sales there is no need to tell me there were more NP reviewers for higher selling games. RPGs and Strategy games topping the pro charts automatically implies the opposite. There was no need at anytime to bring up Gigli as it was neither here nor there in the conversation.

Slow, since CT and FF6 both are RPGs and both are seeded higher than LttP I have to say that if seedings were at all based on nomination counts then LttP has an uphill battle as opposed to being the favorite of the division.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I'm not putting much stock into these seedings. Unregistered users have the final say, ALWAYS. What do we know about them? They like the PS FFs and Zelda a lot more than everything else.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 033/038 --- Matches: 30/35 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Tetris

Did anyone else realize that since they are showing characters sprites this round, the next matchup really IS Crono vs. Mario again? Just a thought.

And now that Wind Waker is projected to win it's division, the horror of an all Zelda Final Four 4 continues to build steam...
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Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
Lacing every post with venom since 2000

I wouldn't hand the division to Wind Waker just yet, but I have no problem considering it a slight favorite for the time being.
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Spring Contest 2004: 36/38
Today: (2)Tetris over (7)Pong

I wouldn't hand anything to anything either. But LttP and WW will be tough to stop before the Final 4. I expected WW, but not LttP.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 033/038 --- Matches: 30/35 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Tetris

I wouldn't hand anything to anything either. But LttP and WW will be tough to stop before the Final 4. I expected WW, but not LttP.

Funny how I expected LttP but not WW. And I still think (wishful thinking, I know) that Metroid Prime can beat Wind Waker, even though it probably won't happen...

I've always been wondering though, with Link getting over 65% on Magus, how did most people think Chrono Trigger would easily win this division? It's still a serious contender, but it isn't underperforming and yet, people are starting to lose faith.
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"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"

I don't mean to discount any Square games, but can FF3 even pose as a challenge to LttP? The way I see it, this was pretty much concluded last year when Ganondorf was clearly stronger than Kefka. In fact, I think FF3 vs Super Metroid is about 50-50.
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Contest Score: 38/38
Next Pick : Tetris

I don`t think FFVI is going to do all that much to LttP at all. I think LttP and Chrono Trigger are the top two in that division with everyone else being below...
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

Yeah, but you're also biased. :)

FF6 is still far more than Kefka, and that hasn't changed.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Well, when it comes to this topic I try to remain as neutral as I can. =)

Anyway, with my current belief that OoT => LttP it would make sense that FFVI really shouldn`t stand that much of a chance at LttP. In fact, I think the first real worrysome match for LttP will be in the division finals with it pretty much having a pretty easy way to there. I think LttP will score around 59% on SM, continue to do so with FFVI, maybe less, and then have an under 55% match against CT. It would make sense if it turns out LttP is really close to OoT in strength considering that CT has always had a chance at OoT/FFVII.

And I`ll be able to further this prediction by seeing how well CT and LttP do. Right now, I`d be willing to say LttP has a great shot at the finals right now - with the winner from the 8-bit bracket being defeated. Just a hunch though. =)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

And I`ll agree that FFVI is definitely above Kefka.
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

The way I see it, this was pretty much concluded last year when Ganondorf was clearly stronger than Kefka.

Kefka is a cult favorite. He went the way of Earthbound for that reason. FFVI =/= Kefka.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 37/38, Next Winner: Tetris

The 16-bit pictures and FFVII vs. Xenogears pictures are up:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b37.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b38.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b39.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b40.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/spr04b41.jpg

Great stuff there. =)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

The LttP vs. Super Metroid one is pretty darn funny.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 37/38, Next Winner: Tetris

Crono would only be expected to get 40%-46% against Ryu.

Proof that those extrapolated percentage predictions mean very little.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Crono would only be expected to get 40%-46% against Ryu.

I'm assuming that that's supposed to be 50%-56%. If you're telling me that the numbers suggest that RYU (not Hayabusa, not Bateson, but regular RYU) would beat CRONO...
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Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

Link ready to whack Samus with the boomerang, heh. =)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

421
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Final Fantasy 7 is a really good game but I hate it and it sucks. - some guy on EB

See Doma, I thought he meant Chrono would be expected to ALLOW 40-46%. That'd make the most sense to me.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Wow, out of all thse match pics I'd say FF7 has the best advantage. Cloud comes through very clearly which all of the 16 bit chars are badly pixilated and Xenogears... damn, if you haven't played the game you'd recognize that there appears to be a person of some sort that is otherwise unidentfiable. In fact, it's sorta hard to tell there is a humanoid shape represented there. F'ed up.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Match #35 Review:

Ouch! LoZ steamrolls over Donkey Kong in one of the biggest blowouts in the contest thus far...and I don't expect any game to break 87% from here on out.

It seems that SMB3 has some competition after all...

Match #37 Preview:

Ooooooooh, a pseudo-Mario vs. Crono...this should be interesting, even though we all know CT will win.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Know what would be really ****ed up? Sonic 2 beating both Mario World and Chrono Trigger.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Good thing that won't happen, Ulti.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Yeah. The fact that SMW is a far bigger threat to CT than Sonic 2 is what made me pick SMW in the first place.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Just a question... where are those Ryu beating Chrono numbers coming from? Rather, which content match results have been relevant for that statistic?
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SP2k4C : Winner - Chrono Trigger

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Andaca, it was an obvious typo.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

That it was.
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

I`m predicting a good 60% for Chrono Trigger tonight, though I can see it falling below that...
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
It is ironic that the last one in the line has the potential to become the Hero of legend.

Whoops, I meant to respond to this earlier:

I got an idea as for the labeling of stats topic. It's just an idea I had like that, it may be a bad one, but who knows. How about putting every single topic, pre-season, off-season, actual contest topics under the same label?

Interesting idea. I liked that they were labeled differently for easier reference, but you're right in that much of the discussion is blurred together between periods. Is there a need for distinction? Maybe not, especially with two contests back to back like this.

As usual, I'll take any and all input from the rest of the regulars. What do you guys think? If we can reach a consensus by the end of this topic I'm pretty much open to doing whatever for the next. Let me know.

(But don't say your ego wouldn't be flattered by a "Part 16" topic! ;) )

Heh, you raise a good point. ;)

I am afraid that Chrono Trigger might become a disappointment here. It's performance against Secret of Mana wasn't something to be overly concerned about, but a poor showing against SMRPG here could foreshadow bad things for it. And I could see SMRPG giving it a run, which I wouldn't have thought before the contest.

You know, I'm feeling exactly the same way. I've just had this growing feeling that CT isn't as strong as I originally assumed. And considering how deep into my bracket it goes, I've become more worried about it than any other game in the contest. But maybe I'm just paranoid. :)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

Ok, assuming these results stay constant, does this mean Secret of Mana is close to SMBRPG?

makes sense to me, tarrot...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

Doesn't the early vote here suggest that Secret of Mana was grossly under-seeded?

True, there are some absolute gems in this division (I'd have given any of the top 6 seeds a chance at the 16-bit final before this result) but for SoM to be seeded 16 when you have games like Gunstar Heroes ranked above it is a bit of a mystery.
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What would you do if Robotnik came to your door?
Probably "Er, would you fancy going down the pub?" - megadrivechamps

people talking about Chrono going below 60%? man, i wish i would have been here last night to defend Chrono Trigger and Secret of Mana. i mentioned in my match preview that Secret of Mana was no pushover. it was a relatively big Square RPG. and it's still the greatest multi-player RPG.

right now, Chrono is at 72%. Mario will probably catch up a bit during the day, but i'd like to know who thinks Chrono isn't a contender for the division title now? ^_^

As usual, I'll take any and all input from the rest of the regulars. What do you guys think? If we can reach a consensus by the end of this topic I'm pretty much open to doing whatever for the next. Let me know.

oh, and Slowflake's suggestion is fine by me.

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Current Score: 37/40 (through Pong vs. Tetris) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12

I totally missed what was being suggested in the first place. Just keep the topic running even in the the offseason, but with increasing numbers?

Great idea. Let`s have a count of all the previous topics, then add five to them (this topic is part four, plus the next one). There`s your number for the next topic.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Next would be 16, as I said.

And my, these results are insane. They're suggesting either that not Ryu, but Ken as well, are way more popular than SF2, OR CT is going to the finals. Could be SFF since both are Square RPGs (though one has Mario tacked onto the title), but I'd doubt it.

Of course, we'll need to see how LttP will retaliate... but Super Metroid is still a much more powerful opponent.

CT's back in the running, bay-bee! Its match with LttP should be one for the ages.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 033/038 --- Matches: 30/35 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Tetris

Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the grudge match of the ages represented on this site at long last here in the "Greatest Generation" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXVIII

(5)Sonic 2 vs (4)Super Mario World

Steve's Prediction: Mario World by 58.8%
Steve's Bracket: Mario
Newbie's Pick: Sonic Heroes!
Upset Chances: It is theoretically possible, but no.

Comments: Here we have the iconic matchup that defined gaming in the late 80's and early 90's...Sonic vs Mario.

In the days before FF was king, before online gaming was the rage, before 3DO, SNK, Sony and Microsoft even thought about making systems, there were two...Sega Genesis...and Super NES. Sure the NES was still around and fairly strong, but the beginning of its decline was imminent with the birth of (my opinion) the best system of all time, the SNES.

These two companies and their respected systems fought each other in stores, in print ads, in commercials on TV even. There were toys, cereals, cartoons even. They pulled out all the punches. And anyone who looks in the mirror and calls themselves a gamer of this generation will remember a lot of it...these were the days when games were the most fun for me...the truest purest gaming experience, hence I call it, the Greatest Generation...

So we have Sega's Icon...its poster child for the alternative to Nintendo. It defined speed...for when the Iconic Sonic was born, it was with the rise of the Genesis, which was meant to outrun the lil NES. And it did. It was the better technical machine. Sega's dreams came true as Sonic became their treasure, bringing money making sequels and spinoffs which funded early era failures like the Sega CD, 32x, Game Gear and Nomad.

Nintendo, not one to be outdone, challenged the Genesis with the 'Next Generation of Gaming', the Super NES. Packed in with it was Mario World, which made SMB3 look like monkey poo. A gorgeous game, Mario's best game in many opinions, and a game which began Nintendo's rise back to dominence which endured only until a company named Sony came forth back in 1993...

This match is my fav of the 2nd round...for it brings back all these happy memories, when for me, gaming was truly my life...Too bad there can only be one winner...and it is Mario.

Why Mario Will Win: Voting blocks: Nintendites. Period.

Why Sonic Wont Win: Sega Squadrons will rally forth, but there wont be enough to take out the King of Platformers. Mario's so loved worldwide he just cant be toppled by the lesser of the Noble Nine members.

Probable Results: Sonic says "Ya cant do this on Nintendo!" and Mario says "Now your playing with power, super power!" And Mario will get the job done in a close one, around 60%.

Best Bosses: Sonic 2: Dr. Robotnik...no one came close. Mario World: The BIG BOO!
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SCK24: 44/48 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

CT is doing quite well. Looks like it has proven itself worthy of its seeding. My bracket is happy but I'm not. Ah, well. I'm not looking forward to tomorrow's match; it will likely signal the end of the lull in whining we've been experiencing these past few days.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 39/40, Next Winner: Chrono Trigger

"In the days before FF was king, before online gaming was the rage, before 3DO, SNK, Sony and Microsoft even thought about making systems,"

Excuse me? The Neo Geo AES was released just after the arcade hardware, so basically in 91-92. Given that a company typically doesn't decide to just release a system over night I'm going to say it was in the works before SMW was even released. Sorry pal, but you're dealing with an SNK fan now.

<Li Xiangfei> Amai! </Li Xiangfei>
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Don't **** with an SNK master, son. </cockknocker>


**Note: If you haven't seen Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back do so.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Wow Chrono Trigger looking good. I expected it around the 60s, but 70% is absurd. About Ken > SF2 theory, I'd have to disagree. I expect SF2 to do better against CT, at least 35%. Sheesh, this is equally as impressive as Mario3's performance few days ago. It looks like we are looking at 3 straight close matches in the round of 4, though I still maintain that LoZ will beat Mario3 handily.
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Contest Score: 40/40
Next Pick : Chrono Trigger

Chichiri:
CN, you're free to speak in general terms if you want, but you're not free to waste my time. I was discussing a very specific circumstance, Nintendo Power's Power Polls, and comment "in general" do not apply to the given circumstance.

I'm getting pretty tired of this stuff. It was very clear that the comment was about quantity of reviews in general and not about Nintendo Power.

Ulti:
Proof that those extrapolated percentage predictions mean very little.

Typo, sorry :| The extrapolated model has always been very accurate, of course, excluding KH factor/SFF/volatility of jobbers.

I'm assuming that that's supposed to be 50%-56%. If you're telling me that the numbers suggest that RYU (not Hayabusa, not Bateson, but regular RYU) would beat CRONO...

Er, yes.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com/frog

Nice performance by Chrono Trigger. It's stock has gone up a lot now. One would think that SMW and Sonic 2 probably aren't real threats to it now.

Chrono Trigger vs. A Link to the Past should be quite amazing. I think Final Fantasy VI should do fairly well against A Link to the Past as well.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com/frog

New content on my site that would be of interest to those here:

Sortable match tables:
http://www.sc2k4.com/displaytable.php

Summer contest score distributions:
http://www.sc2k4.com/score_distributions.php

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings and Comparisons:
http://www.sc2k4.com/extrapolated.php

You can leave feedback in this topic:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=14019452

I'm very eager to hear what people have to say :o)

...and be sure to check out the Frog section!
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com/frog

One would think that SMW and Sonic 2 probably aren't real threats to it now.

Were they ever? I was under the impression that a CT vs. some other game division final was a given from the start. This match just makes it more clear that LttP isn't going to beat it (although I'm still not entirely convinced that LttP has its match against FFVI in the bag, either).
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 39/40, Next Winner: Chrono Trigger

^ I love how people jump to conclusions, just as when Mario3 beat Metroid by a large margin. Give LttP a chance to counter.
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Contest Score: 40/40
Next Pick : Chrono Trigger