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Spring 2004 Contest
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Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest - Part 4
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:48:53 PM | Message Detail
That might have been a bad idea to write that early in the morning. With all these points SSBM gained back in the afternoon and evening, it now looks like a favorite again against Vice City.

Cyko, about FF6: You might be right. But, I seriously doubt 73% can cut it against LttP. Perhaps if it did that against the other MKs I'd understand. But the first?

you...kind of lost five of the six debated matches in the first round.

Hey, come on there, it was seven, not six. And I lost two of them by less than 500 votes.

Secret of Mana... I'd be really glad if it was indeed its own power that got it to 22% against CT, but if it's not then my bracket is falling apart right there.
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM
From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:12:01 PM | Message Detail
Hey, I've got a question for you all that concerns the Summer Contest:

Which character do you think has the best chance of demoting Sonic from his Noble Nine status come summer time?

The blue blur has consistently shown the least impressive performance out of all of the Noble Nine, which, for the record, consist of:

Cloud, Link, Sephiroth, Mega Man, Snake, Samus, Mario, Crono, and, obviously, Sonic.

There's a fair number of non-Noble Nine competitors who, by 2003 numbers, have shown performance that ranks right behind or about equal to Sonic:

Tidus
Ganondorf
Magus
Aeris
Zero
Shadow

Out of those six, Magus appears to be the strongest, due to the fact that his 33% against Link is almost identical to Sonic's performance against Cloud, and Cloud is only slightly stronger than Link (by 2003 numbers.)

But it doesn't end there. If Magus=Sonic, than so do Tidus and Ganondorf, which means that Sega's hedgehog better have his ****s on reeeeeal tight if he plans on keeping his elite status through the next character battle.
---
"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: HikarunoGo | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:24:07 PM | Message Detail
Actually, Magus scored 35% on Link. A healthy and respectable amount only topped by a handful of others. Magus is still a bit better than Tidus and Ganon, but yeah, they could all overtake Sonic as well, assuming Ganon wasn't beefed up any by Link vs Ganon hype. He's still not safe from Aeris and Zero, either. They both got underseeded heavily and could have lost a couple thousand bracket voters because of it. He's definitely not worthy of more than a 3 seed anymore.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:50:07 PM | Message Detail
Better give my stuff before going to bed

Round 1 Review

Well we started this round with a blowout with Mario’s greatest game to all the characters in Nintendo having trouble against Metal Gear Solid 2. A lot of things have happened during this round. Like...

8 Bit Division: When I saw this division I thought this would be very easy to predict. I’ve already narrowed it down to 3 games that could win it and they are Super Mario Bros. 3, Final Fantasy and Legend of Zelda. The only match that got me thinking was Phantsy Star vs. Contra because I didn’t know either of them so I took a wild guess. The rest of the division was easy to predict for.

Phantasy Star vs. Contra: Well me not knowing either one made me choosing one of them really hard so I ended up picking the higher seed because it got more nominations then Contra. Also I didn’t go down to the board with all of it’s hype that Contra will win, but I lost my point and I have no regrets because I didn’t know either of them.

Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt: A match talked about many times ends up living to its expectation, but it didn’t start like that. Donkey Kong started gaining small amounts until he had a lead of just above 3100 then Duck Hunt started to gain votes at around 09:30 and when it finished only 142 votes was separating the winner from the loser. The only weird thing about this was with the closeness of this match the lead did not change, but Donkey Kong had the lead for the whole 24 hour period.

Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure: Sure this may have been a huge blowout, but this was a special blowout. This was the biggest blowout ever beating Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man. Many of us already knew that Adventure will not get above 7%, but it might have gone higher then the vote total of just over 5000 votes, but Adventure didn’t break 5000 and this got the biggest blowout ever.

16 Bit Division: The next 8 matches would be easy to predict too, but I was looking forward to the matches in round 2 and 3, but we have to go through round 1 first. The match everyone was looking forward to was SMRPG vs. Street Fighter II and Earthbound vs. Doom, but the other matches in this division seem pretty boring. Also for winners in the division it will probably be Chrono Trigger, Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past and Final Fantasy III/VI.

Chrono Trigger vs. Secret of Mana: Most of us thought that Chrono Trigger would do much better, but don’t forget that Secret of Mana is also a good game too and didn’t deserve to get the 16 seed. So now people are thinking if Chrono Trigger has a chance to win the division. Well I say it all depends on how much the match of LoZ: LttP vs. FFIII/VI win by.

Super Mario RPG vs. Street Fighter II: Well we started this match with SMRPG winning, but when the Europeans voted all or most of them went to SFII because SMRPG wasn’t release in Europe making SFII take the lead, but as the North Americans votes came SMRPG took the lead and gain for the whole day winning this match, but it was interesting when SFII took the lead.

Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes: This was the biggest blowout in this division. LoZ: LttP got over 90% in this match, but the weird thing is that Gunstar Heroes was an 11 seed. This match also made LoZ: LttP look good in round 3 and even round 4.

Earthbound vs. Doom: Another somewhat close match this time Doom a computer FPS game vs. Earthbound a cult classic that means that it’s a great game, but not many people know it so they just voted for Doom. There was a lot of whining in this match from Earthound fans, but that was expected due to they did the same during the Bowser vs. Ness match last summer.

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:50:46 PM | Message Detail
32/64 Bit Division: This is the division that have many of my favorite games such as Pokemon G/S/C and Super Mario 64. The winners look like it will either by a Final Fantasy VII and Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time. Also people are saying whoever comes out of this division is most likely to win the contest.

Final Fantasy VII vs. Suikoden II: Nothing very interesting happened here I just want to say that this is the first match this year to break the 100 000 vote barrier.

Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal vs. Xenogears: When the match begun there was a glitch in the system which only let people who were logged on to vote this match was going to get the least amount of votes ever, but CJayC called the match off at 10:30 when he saw the problem and we would begin again tomorrow. On the next day people feared that Pokemon might take the casual votes and might win, but Xenogears actually took that vote making it’s lead even bigger even Pojo.com couldn’t help out to give Pokemon the win.

Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night: Well Castlevania had a 56% lead until the site had an update and when it went back on the poll stopped updating for 8 hours and when the next update came Castlevania went from 56% to 52% meaning that Perfect Dark kept a very even out match. Now people are wondering if Castlevania has a chance against Goldeneye in round 2.

Super Mario 64 vs. NiGHTS into Dream: All I have to say that Super Mario 64 is probably the 3rd strongest game, but with this bad seeding it will lose in round 2 in a somewhat close match

128 Bit Division: When I saw this division I thought this must be one of the hardest divisions to predict. I can see many game winning this division such as Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker, Metroid Prime, Final Fantasy X and Super Smash Bros. Melee and there could be more too.

Halo vs. Starcraft: This is the match where the 16 seed actually has a chance to win. This match would also be the hardest for the division. Once the match started Starcraft had the lead then Halo took the lead and even building up a 1100 lead Halo still lost by about 300 votes. This match also got above 100 000 votes as well.

Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts: We all originally planned that Kingdom Hearts will easily win in this match by like 60%-40%, but once the match started Soul Calibur actually had the lead for most of the day until Kingdom Hearts took it away. Soul Calibur now joins the club of the you lead for most of the day, but still lost.

Final Fantasy Tactics: Advance vs. Fire Emblem: This is probably the only match in this division that most of us under pick the results. Even though both being Gameboy Advance games that vote went mostly to Final Fantasy Tactics: Advance giving it an even bigger lead.

Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia, Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life, Final Fantasy X vs. Shenmue, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic and Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Metal Gear Solid 2: Yes I know I include 5 matches here, but I’ll basically just be repeating myself. Anyways before this division all of the higher seed games have a chance on taking the division, but one after the other the all under perform then what we all expected. So now people are saying that Wind Waker will probably win it since it was the least under performed game in this division, but I think that Final Fantasy X may give Wind Waker a hard time.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:51:12 PM | Message Detail
Round 2 Preview: Well we’ll start with the 8 bit division with boring matches Pong vs. Tetris will probably be the closest match in the division. Then moving to a more exciting 16 bit division Super Mario World vs. Sonic 2 and Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid will be exciting. Then moving to the 32/64 bit division Final Fantasy VII vs. Xenogears will probably be the biggest blowout in this round also Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Metal Gear Solid and Castlevania Symphony of the Night vs. Goldeneye will be exciting. Then we come to the 128 bit division where 3/4 matches should be very close only Final Fantasy X vs. Final Fantasy Tactics: Advance will not be very close
---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:52:31 PM | Message Detail
Year Game was made (The numbers beside them means how many are left)

1972 1/1
Pong

1979 0/1
Adventure

1980 0/1
Pac-Man

1981 1/2
Donkey Kong
Galaga

1982 0/1
Pitfall

1984 0/1
Duck Hunt

1986 1/1
Metroid

1987 3/5
Super Mario Bros. 3
Metal Gear
Phantasy Star
Final Fantasy
Legend of Zelda

1988 2/2
Contra
Tetris

1989 1/2
River City Ransom
Super Mario World

1991 1/3
Street Fighter II
The Simpsons
Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past

1992 1/3
Sonic 2
Shining Force
Mortal Kombat

1993 1/4
Secret of Mana
Gunstar Heroes
Phantasy Star IV
Doom

1994 2/3
Super Metroid
Earthbound
Final Fantasy III/VI

1995 1/1
Chrono Trigger

1996 2/4
Super Mario RPG
Resident Evil
Super Mario 64
NiGHTS into Dreams

1997 4/4
Final Fantasy VII
Final Fantasy Tactics
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
Goldeneye

1998 4/9
Suikoden II
Xenogears
Dance Dance Revolution
Metal Gear Solid
Panzer Dragoon Panzer
Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Fallout 2
Starcraft
Half-Life

1999 0/3
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal
Soul Calibur
Shenmue

2000 0/2
Perfect Dark
Skies of Arcadia

2001 2/4
Halo
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Metal Gear Solid 2

2002 4/4
Kingdom Hearts
Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker
Metroid Prime
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

2003 1/3
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
Fire Emblem
Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:53:33 PM | Message Detail
Games from Console (The number beside means how many are left)

Arcade 4/11
Tetris
Donkey Kong
Pong
Pac-Man
Contra
Pitfall
Galaga
Street Fighter II
The Simpsons
Mortal Kombat
Dance Dance Revolution

Atari 2600 0/1
Adventure

Dreamcast 0/3
Soul Calibur
Skies of Arcadia
Shenmue

Game Boy Advance 1/2
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
Fire Emblem

Game Boy Color 0/1
Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal

GameCube 3/3
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Metroid Prime
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

Genesis 1/4
Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Gunstar Heroes
Shining Force
Phantasy Star IV

NES 4/7
Super Mario Bros. 3
Legend of Zelda
Final Fantasy
Metroid
River City Ransom
Duck Hunt
Metal Gear

Nintendo 64 3/4
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
GoldenEye 007
Perfect Dark
Super Mario 64

PC 2/4
Doom
Fallout 2
Half-Life
Starcraft

PlayStation 5/7
Final Fantasy VII
Metal Gear Solid
Final Fantasy Tactics
Xenogears
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
Resident Evil
Suikoden II

PlayStation 2 3/4
Final Fantasy X
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
Kingdom Hearts
Metal Gear Solid 2

Saturn 0/2
NiGHTS into dreams...
Panzer Dragoon Saga

Sega Master System 0/1
Phantasy Star

SNES 6/8
Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy III/VI
Super Metroid
Super Mario World
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
EarthBound
Super Mario RPG
Secret of Mana

Xbox 0/2
Halo: Combat Evolve
Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 9:13:27 PM | Message Detail
Why would I accuse you of being fickle? You can have your opinions all you want, I respect them.
---
Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 9:20:47 PM | Message Detail
Why would I accuse you of being fickle? You can have your opinions all you want, I respect them

are you talking to me? or someone else
---
LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: HikarunoGo | Posted: 5/5/2004 9:26:21 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, unless your opinion is against SoM, then you must die.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/5/2004 9:28:33 PM | Message Detail
UltimaterializerX was talking to smitelf.
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 5/5/2004 10:33:56 PM | Message Detail
Alright, First Round has come to an end, the Contest is officially half over... sounds like a good time for a Guru update to me!

The Guru Scoreboard

1st Ncrdrg 31
1st Bananaquest 31
1st Sephirot 31
1st smitelf 31
1st UltimaterializerX 31
6th Ngamer 30
6th IMAP 30
6th King Morgoth 30
6th StopPokingMe 30
6th red sox 777 30
11th cyko 29
11th neoatomtaco 29
11th Haste2 29
11th Starion 29
11th Shake 29
11th Heroic Mario 29
11th solarshadow 29
11th Ringworm 29
11th Z1mZum 29
11th Xuxon 29
11th charmander 29
11th Team Rocket Elite 29
23rd nh82 28
23rd FastFalcon 28
23rd swirldude 28
23rd Sir Chris 28
23rd Yesmar 28
23rd creativename 28
23rd ChichiriMuyo 28
30th torey luvullo 27
31st DomaDragoon 26


The Guru Stats (First Round)

Pts % Gurus
32 0.00% 0
31 16.13% 5
30 16.13% 5
29 38.71% 12
28 22.58% 7
27 3.23% 1
26 3.23% 1


Hopefully those won't be the only stats we get to see tonight. But with all this board work, I wouldn't bet on it, sadly. Please, CJay, please!

---
the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs
From: HikarunoGo | Posted: 5/5/2004 10:41:00 PM | Message Detail
As much as it makes me want to cry, stats seem unlikely.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 11:36:46 PM | Message Detail
For some odd reason, I read that post as "UltimaterializerX was talking to himself", more than once too.

Does anyone have the list that combined all three contests?
---
Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 11:39:02 PM | Message Detail
Oh never mind, they were in the old topic.

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84.60% - Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 83.68% - Mega Man vs. Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 82.70% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77.92% - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76.84% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 75.42% - Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 75.28% - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
10) 73.82% - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 84196 - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 80505 - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 79918 - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 77511 - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
8) 74682 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
9) 73838 - Crono vs. Tom Nook (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 70809 - Sephiroth vs. Max Payne (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.04% - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 0.10% - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 0.14% - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 0.22% - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 0.34% - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 0.60% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 0.96% - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 1.02% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 34 - Samus Aran vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 115 - Mario vs. Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 137 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 143 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 277 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 373 - Starcraft vs. Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 650 - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 968 - Tommy Vercetti vs. Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 987 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 147637 - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 133005 - Mario vs. Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 129703 - Mario vs. Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 124443 - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 124192 - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 123587 - Sephiroth vs. Mario (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 118961 - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 116190 - Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 115738 - Ganondorf vs. Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 113881 - Zelda vs. Lara Croft (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 11:39:56 PM | Message Detail
Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 50816 - Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 51889 - Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 52419 - Bomberman vs. Kane (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 52618 - Donkey Kong vs. Bub (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 52874 - Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 53213 - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 53920 - Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 54997 - Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 55392 - Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 56361 - Tina Armstrong vs. Gordon Freeman (I) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 94086 - Cloud Strife (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 92998 - Link (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 92894 - Legend of Zelda (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
4) 91905 - Mega Man (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7 (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
6) 90364 - Sephiroth (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 89595 - Sephiroth (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 89189 - Mario (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 88469 - Crono (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
10) 86938 - Final Fantasy (I) from 2004 Spring Contest

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
2) 5257 - Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 5414 - Serious Sam (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
5) 8602 - Gabe Logan (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 8802 - AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 11076 - Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 11145 - CATS (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 11292 - Pitfall Harry (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 11400 - Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 71438 - Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 66434 - Crono (III) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 64713 - Cloud Strife (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 59865 - Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 57078 - Tidus (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
6) 56258 - Halo (I) from 2004 Spring Contest
7) 55322 - Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 54529 - Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 53716 - Crono (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 50457 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2003 Summer Contest

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 30662 - Strider Hiryu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
2) 30711 - Pikachu (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 31160 - Kyo Kusanagi (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 31798 - Donkey Kong (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 32301 - Serious Sam (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 32602 - Donkey Kong (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 32607 - Pac-Man (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
8) 33160 - Duke Nukem (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
9) 33516 - Alucard (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 33602 - Sonic the Hedgehog (II) from 2002 Summer Contest

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)*

1) 99.1% - Link vs. AiAi (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 98.0% - Mario vs. Captain Olimar (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
3) 96.4% - Link vs. Little Mac (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
4) 95.9% - Mario vs. Servbot (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
5) 95.6% - Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Pitfall Harry (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 95.6% - Mega Man vs. Mr. Resetti (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
7) 95.4% - Link vs. Fox McCloud (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 94.9% - Cloud Strife vs. CATS (I) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 94.2% - Donkey Kong vs. Bub (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 94.1% - Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man (I) from 2002 Summer Contest
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 11:40:05 PM | Message Detail
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)*

1) 6.0% - Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (VI) from 2003 Summer Contest
2) 12.8% - Link vs. Mario (VI) from 2002 Summer Contest
3) 13.4% - Cloud Strife vs. Link (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
4) 14.5% - Mega Man vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2003 Summer Contest
5) 14.6% - Crono vs. Solid Snake (IV) from 2002 Summer Contest
6) 17.3% - Scorpion vs. Pac-Man (III) from 2002 Summer Contest
7) 21.7% - Sephiroth vs. Mega Man (V) from 2003 Summer Contest
8) 24.2% - Magus vs. Ganondorf (II) from 2003 Summer Contest
9) 28.8% - Alucard vs. Duke Nukem (II) from 2002 Summer Contest
10) 30.6% - Link vs. Sephiroth (V) from 2002 Summer Contest
From: creativename | Posted: 5/6/2004 3:37:31 AM | Message Detail
o_O OUCH.

Dear god, 77%?! SMB3 is looking absurdly powerful. It appears to be a viable title contender, and certainly has a great shot to get to the final.

It definitely appears more powerful than Chrono Trigger at this point. I'd say the original Metroid was stronger than Secret of Mana, though I'm not quite sure, and SFF might have played some role in both matches. At any rate I'd make SMB3 a clear favorite in that match at this point. A Link to the Past might be stronger than SMB3, but we don't really have much to base that on I think.

Really though, with Tetris' disappointing first round performance, SMB3 vs. The Legend of Zelda is going to a true clash of the titans. Unless Final Fantasy can put up a decent showing against SMB3, neither of these games looks like it'll be challenged in the slightest going into their match-up. But with this titanic performance SMB3 has very clearly established itself as the big favorite in that match.

What completely shocks me though is that this result seems to imply that the original Metroid is only slightly stronger than Metal Gear!? WTF is up with that???
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/6/2004 3:42:32 AM | Message Detail
I don't think this match alone can prove anything for Mario 3, other than the fact that it is undoubtedly the #2 Nintendo franchize. Nintendo vs Nintendo stats can be misleading. LoZ is still the favorite.
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Contest Score: 32-0
Next Pick : SMB3
From: cyko | Posted: 5/6/2004 3:50:38 AM | Message Detail
cyko said:

SMB3 will not lose. the other three have legitimate chances, but the original Zelda won't make it.

creativename said:

If SMB3 gets close to 70% against Metroid, then it would have to be the big favorite again, but I don't think it can do that.

current results:

Super Mario Bros. 3 77.55% 5917
Metroid 22.45% 1713
TOTAL VOTES 7630

i rest my case. SMB3 has already won this division. not even Zelda will stop it.

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Current Score: 29/32 (through SSBM vs MGS2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: cyko | Posted: 5/6/2004 4:03:38 AM | Message Detail

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
4) 72.62% - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
5) 71.26% - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
6) 69.66% - Super Mario 64 over Nights *
7) 66.58% - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
8) 64.60% - Super Mario Bros. 3 over Metal Gear *
9) 62.94% - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
10) 61.62% - Goldeneye 007 over Panzer Dragoon Saga *

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
4) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
5) 69753 - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
6) 61229 - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
7) 59648 - Sonic 2 over Shining Force
8) 56834 - Super Mario 64 over Nights *
9) 56376 - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
10) 53087 - Chrono Trigger over Secret of Mana

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 0.34% - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur #
4) 6.36% - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 12.32% - Metroid Prime over Half-Life #
6) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
7) 13.44% - Super Smash Bros. Melee over Metal Gear Solid 2 #

8) 14.08% - Doom over Earthbound
9) 15.90% - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
10) 20.64% - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City over Star Wars: KOTOR @

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 373 - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur #
4) 4883 - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 9066 - Metroid Prime over Half-Life #
6) 10065 - Super Smash Bros. Melee over Metal Gear Solid 2 #

7) 11114 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
8) 12076 - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
9) 12164 - Doom over Earthbound
10) 18491 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City over Star Wars: KOTOR @

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 112889 - Halo vs. Starcraft
2) 107150 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2
3) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall
4) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure
5) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons
6) 97126 - Sonic 2 vs. Shining Force
7) 97031 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt
8) 96704 - Super Mario RPG vs. Steet Fighter 2
9) 96186 - Final Fantasy 3/6 vs. Mortal Kombat
10) 96053 - Legend of Zelda: OOT vs. Fallout 2

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 65875 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #
2) 69876 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
3) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man *
4) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life #
5) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear *
6) 74688 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil *
7) 74923 - Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 #

8) 75583 - Goldeneye 007 vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga *
9) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia #
10) 76743 - Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: SotN *

Top 10 Least Popular Polls without an Extra PotD (by vote totals)

1) 65875 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #
2) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life #
3) 74923 - Super Smash Bros. Melee over Metal Gear Solid 2 #

4) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia #
5) 77424 - Final Fantasy X xs. Shenmue #
6) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga
7) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4
8) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom
9) 86418 - Earthbound vs. Doom
10) 89619 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City over Star Wars: KOTOR @

---
Current Score: 29/32 (through SSBM vs MGS2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: cyko | Posted: 5/6/2004 4:04:18 AM | Message Detail

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda
2) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7
3) 86938 - Final Fantasy
4) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP
5) 82903 - Legend of Zelda: OOT
6) 79257 - Super Mario World
7) 78387 - Sonic 2
8) 71697 - Chrono Trigger
9) 70520 - Super Metroid
10) 70294 - Final Fantasy 3/6

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure
2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes
3) 12256 - Pitfall
4) 12375 - Nights *
5) 13150 - Fallout 2
6) 13197 - Metal Gear *
7) 14144 - Phantasy Star 4
8) 14504 - Panzer Dragoon Saga *
9) 15401 - Suikoden 2
10) 18028 - The Simpsons

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 56258 - Halo
2) 48444 - Duck Hunt
3) 44532 - Soul Calibur #
4) 42314 - Street Fighter 2
5) 37127 - Earthbound
6) 35930 - Perfect Dark
7) 35564 - Star Wars: KOTOR @
8) 35513 - Phantasy Star
9) 32429 - Metal Gear Solid 2 #

10) 32288 - Half-Life #

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 40495 - Xenogears *
2) 40813 - Castlevania: SotN *
3) 41354 - Metroid Prime #
4) 42494 - Super Smash Bros. Melee #

5) 43716 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance #
6) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts #
7) 48587 - Donkey Kong
8) 49291 - Doom
9) 49837 - Metroid *
10) 52745 - Metal Gear Solid *

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners without an Extra PotD (by votes)

1) 41354 - Metroid Prime #
2) 42494 - Super Smash Bros. Melee #

3) 43716 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance #
4) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts #
5) 48587 - Donkey Kong
6) 49291 - Doom
7) 54055 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City @
8) 54390 - Super Mario RPG
9) 55593 - Contra
10) 56544 - Legend of Zelda: WW #

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) still, no data yet..... tonight???!!........... maybe..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) no data yet...... Gamespot says we can't have stats..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

* = shared PotD with GameRiot or ESPN or FFXI poll

# = matches after the home-page layout change

@ = messed up two day match after the layout change

---
Current Score: 29/32 (through SSBM vs MGS2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/6/2004 4:04:46 AM | Message Detail
I think you are jumping the gun. At least give LoZ a chance to counter.
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Contest Score: 32-0
Next Pick : SMB3
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/6/2004 4:47:54 AM | Message Detail
Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the fanboys exerting themselves in the "Ancient" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXIV

(12)Contra vs (4)Final Fantasy

Steve's Prediction: FF by 74.4%
Steve's Bracket: FF
Newbie's Pick: Gee, I wonder...
Upset Chances: Can't, won't, ain't able to happen!

Comments: Here we got another easy one to call, only the round is different, as the original FF takes on the NES (but not original) Contra.

Four warriors...each carrying an orb...set off to rid the land of evil. From Coneria...to Elfland...to Gaia and Onrac and beyond...these brave four...whether it be 4 White Mages or 2 Fighters, 1 Red Mage and 1 Black Mage or...oh you get the idea!

Now these brave four set off for the isle of the Red Falcon, carrying not orbs, but rather spread guns and lasers. Their goal...to take out the very excellent side scrolling action title known and loved as Contra.

I am still kicking myself for not picking Contra over that dud Phantasy Star. Fanboys failed me in that match...Anyway...I digress. Contra is a great game, a solid fun play, but its weakness overall will show here, for it faces the grandfather 6 generations removed of the game by which this site seems to revolve around. And the orbiting fanboys no nothing but blind loyalty to their 'sun', and that we all know is Final Fantasy VII.

You do the figuring peeps. I dont have to do it for ya!

Why FF Will Win: Voting blocks: The Square and FF fanboys obviously, also RPG 4 Lifers.

Why Contra Wont Win: Not enough Nintendite and Non FF lovers to overcome...just not a strong enough opponent to get it done.

Probable Results: The forefather of the modern Squaresoft RPG will vanquish Contra handily, sending the aliens packing for greener pastures...

Best Bosses: Contra: The Heart...nuff said! (Though its better in Contra The Alien Wars on SNES...damn fine game that is, best in the series I say) FF: Garland and his 'I will knock you all down!' What a wimp...
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SCK24: 30/34 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/6/2004 5:27:19 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, that score is just sick....SMB3 is dominating way more than expected. Could Metal Gear beat Pac-Man after all? For LoZ to have a shot in the semfinals, I say it's going to need 82% against Donkey Kong.


---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:06:33 AM | Message Detail
I am most definitely blaming SFF here. I know, I blamed it for Cloud/Auron in the first place when closer analysis showed there was none when the contest was over... but if we were to translate both Mario's and Pac-Man's popularity from Summer Contests to Spring Contests, SMB3 should be in the mid-60s right now!

And I'm expecting the score to climb even more with the afternoon vote... it might break 80%!

I'm impatiently waiting for LoZ's own SFF-filled match. You can't tell me it's not gonna happen there too.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:38:37 AM | Message Detail
Why would I accuse you of being fickle? You can have your opinions all you want, I respect them.

Never said you did ^_~ just commenting how I’ve never been on the bandwagon to begin with and I feel somewhat vindicated now that Vice City isn’t considered to be a total joke against SSBM. SSBM should still be the favorite but my wild card pick isn’t quite so wild in the eyes of most people here anymore.

And wow, SMB3 is kicking butt. I blame SFF which I should have seen coming. I’m kicking myself for not realizing that SMB3 ought to do this well. We’ll see how Zelda does in its match before counting it out, though it would have to deliver a victory at least 10% above whatever SMB3 ends up getting for me not to turn skeptical about its chances. Donkey Kong << Metroid.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 31/32, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:46:17 AM | Message Detail
Wait, there was no SFF in the Cloud/Auron match? No way. I`d like to see how that`s possible.

With your attitude these last few days, it's hard to guess whether you're being sarcastic or serious.

What was that supposed to mean? -_-
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:51:01 AM | Message Detail
Wrong topic, boy.

Anyway, roll the footage ONE MORE TIME!

*click*

Auron beat Tails 65-35.
Alucard beat Tails 54-46.

Tails lost by 11 points more to Auron.

Auron lost to Cloud 72-28.
Alucard lost to Cloud 70-30.

Auron lost by 2 points more than Alucard.

Now, it looks like SFF had a 13-point effect, right? Here's the kicker... CLOUD GAINED 14 POINTS BETWEEN THE CONTESTS! 1 point would easily fall in the standard margin of error, so that's it for the disproving.

*click*

So, how was that?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 027/032 --- Matches: 27/32 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:53:52 AM | Message Detail
Ah, so that was the purpose of all the Tails/Auron/Alucard/Cloud analyses. Though I`m still wondering about all the personal shots all of a sudden.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:55:14 AM | Message Detail
Nothing personal, I just find you not to have been the same for a little while. Is the whining getting to your cruisers a little bit too much? ;)
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 027/032 --- Matches: 27/32 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 6:56:59 AM | Message Detail
Whoa, I just read what happened on the other topic, and I'm deeply sorry.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 027/032 --- Matches: 27/32 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:00:30 AM | Message Detail
Oh, it`s fine. Well, it`s actually not fine, but don`t treat me any different. I`ve been through this already.

And how have I been different? I seem a bit negative lately? I`m only being persistent because if you feel that I`ve been acting different, then I obviously need to lighten up =)

Oh, and while I know you`re alive and reading this, would you be interested in a copy of the SC Battle Chest should I win the contest? And in other news, do you have any form of an e-mail address? Drop me a line if you do.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:02:28 AM | Message Detail
C'mon man, don't do this. Enjoy your prize should you get it. Next time I get to go to Quebec City I'll keep a look out for a copy.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 027/032 --- Matches: 27/32 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:05:18 AM | Message Detail
Don't worry, Slow. No way is Ulti winning the contest...I AM.

...oh, wait, I'm in Canada...

...God damn it...
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 31/32, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:08:33 AM | Message Detail
Heh, okay. I was going to buy myself a new copy and give you my Starcraft set that was all old and scratched to hell, anyway ~_^ (kidding)

Though to be dead serious, my Starcraft set survived a car accident. Come to think of it, anything that got out of my car and remained working that day was pretty lucky. It was a horrid accident, though the only scratches suffered were to my Starcraft CDs. But they`re all minor, and the only thing I occasionally have issues with are the original. But I`m alive, so it`s all good.

Anyway, enough of me and my banter. Time to discuss some stats.

<stats>Super Mario 3 is kicking the living **** out of Metroid far worse than I ever thought it could. Unless Zelda performs better against a Donkey Kong game that is undoubtedly weaker than Metroid (I`m open to counterpoints on that, though), then we may have our division champion crowned in two days</stats>

Okay, I`m off to bed. Slow, I`m sorry if I`ve been a bit off lately. The site change paired with everything else has been a bit rough. But then again, no one likes the site change. 99% of us are just waiting for the classic look ^_^

Good night, yo.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:09:36 AM | Message Detail
Pfft, please. You picked Vice City over SSBM ^_^

*points and laughs*

Ahem. That seems like a better pick today than it did two days ago.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:12:31 AM | Message Detail
Oh, one last thing of note before I go to bed. Even with the surprise blowout, it doesn`t seem like we`ll get more than the usual amount of votes. Will this affect later matches in the contest at all? I`d like to think that the more popular games would draw more voters, but now I`m not so sure. This could be just the opening Ocarina of Time needed, quite frankly.

Anyway, I`m out. I`m off to see A Perfect Circle tonight too, so don`t expect to see me around until pretty late tonight.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:48:59 AM | Message Detail
1. If this were held when the games were new, MG and Metroid really would have been that close. People who weren't as aware of gaming then don't seem to know how strong MG used to be.

2. I expected more from Metroid, but this isn't a shocker. This just solidifies the idea that Mario 3 is that good of a game. And it is.

3. SlangEdter41 - LoZ was never the favorite. Mario 3 has always been the top choice for the division by a good margin, and even as someone who has talked up Zelda quite a bit even I still know it. It'll be tight, but Mario 3 is still the top pick.

4. I wouldn't be surprised if DK gets 10%, I also won't be surprised if it does just as well as Metroid. I gotta get to work very soon here, so if I'm not dead tired when I get home AND I remember I'll try to talk about it.

5. I'd rather see Tool, but APC is still ****ing awesome. Have fun
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:53:17 AM | Message Detail
Anyway, I`m out. I`m off to see A Perfect Circle tonight too, so don`t expect to see me around until pretty late tonight.

You're seeing A Perfect Circle tonight?

smitelf = jealous!!!!!

I was going to do my analysis now but apparently I'm being dragged to the mall. Oh, well. You'll all have to wait for my words of wisdom. And we'll just see who has the last laugh on Vice City vs. SSBM...
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 31/32, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/6/2004 7:56:38 AM | Message Detail
I'm guessing Donkey Kong will get about 15-16% of the vote. I really can't see it getting any more than that, especially with Metroid only scraping into the 20's. Donkey Kong barely put away Duck Hunt, and Metroid handily beat Pacman which I saw as a surprise at least. Tetris will double up Pong.

The interesting one will be tomorrow, where we see how many people press the wrong vote button. Unless 75% or more people press the wrong button, and I don't think that many will make that mistake, Final Fantasy is doomed against Mario 3. Doomed.
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Jon Thomson - 26/32 - today: Mario 3 - tomorrow: FF (voting Contra)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 8:16:23 AM | Message Detail
I'd like to announce a new addition to my Excel file.

Starting tomorrow, rankings by 4-pack using Creativename's formula!

... I gotta read on how he does it.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 027/032 --- Matches: 27/32 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: creativename | Posted: 5/6/2004 8:36:54 AM | Message Detail
People who weren't as aware of gaming then don't seem to know how strong MG used to be.

This could not be more false. Metal Gear was not one of the top tier NES games back in the day, at all. It must've benefitted heavily from franchise support to do almost as well as Metroid, and/or Metroid suffered heavily from SFF, and/or Metroid's support has fallen relative to Metal Gear's for some other reason.

... I gotta read on how he does it.

Don't use my formula, actually. It's not theoretically correct. Use the standard extrapolation formula that others were using. I'll update my site this weekend hopefully, and that should be one of the things I change.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/6/2004 8:57:54 AM | Message Detail
Well then, would it be the following?

Pac-Man scored 31.49% against Metroid, and supposing Metroid got 22.15% against SMB3, Pac-Man would get (31.49/50)*22.15 = 13,95% against SMB3.

Is that it?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 027/032 --- Matches: 27/32 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SMB3
From: creativename | Posted: 5/6/2004 9:27:07 AM | Message Detail
Yup.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: creativename | Posted: 5/6/2004 9:32:34 AM | Message Detail
BTW, in addition, given that Metal gear got 17.7% against SMB3 and assuming Pac-Man would get 13.95%, that implies that Pac-Man would get .1395/.177/2=39.4% against Metal Gear.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 11:56:20 AM | Message Detail
Chichiri, we really do think alike. Tool is my favorite band ever because of their ability to cause their listeners to actually think. Their messages, real or not, are meaningless. If you`re a Tool fan and can get past the idea of seeing Maynard as a cult leader, you leave yourself open to really enhance your way of thinking. The people who say that music can`t have an affect on someone`s life really doesn`t know what they`re talking about.

And another note. I love you guys. Seriously. I don`t know what I`s do without you sometimes =)

Anyway, I`m off! The Taj Mahal is a simple ten minute walk down the street, so I`m getting there nice and early so I can snag me front row in the standing room. Oh, this is going to kick some ass. And seriously, thanks for being there for me everyone. I`ve always felt that putting emotional stock into the internet is never a good thing, but no one bothered to actually be there within the past 12 hours except for you guys. I don`t know, it`s wierd.

Okay, enough of that. See you all later.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/6/2004 12:06:38 PM | Message Detail
I was going to do my analysis now but apparently I'm being dragged to the mall.

If you live near Quebec, get in there and find Slowflake the Starcraft Battle Chest. I`ll reimnburse you if you have a Western Union up there ~_^
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/6/2004 2:41:45 PM | Message Detail
And another note. I love you guys. Seriously. I don`t know what I`s do without you sometimes =)

Awwww...

If you live near Quebec, get in there and find Slowflake the Starcraft Battle Chest. I`ll reimnburse you if you have a Western Union up there ~_^

Ulti, Ulti...if only you’d asked me that a week ago I would have been in the heart of Montreal itself.

Note: Montreal is an awesome city for about eight months of the year but eastern winters suck beyond what I would have believed possible. Snow in April is inhumane.

Oh, heck, just to keep this somewhat on topic:

Match Review: Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Metal Gear Solid 2

SSBM showed in this match that it is just as great a flop as the rest of its division. MGS2 may have been underseeded but not to the extent where it should have posed nearly so much trouble for SSBM -- if it were as strong as it was hyped up to be, that it, which it certainly is not. It has shown weakness and Vice City may very well take advantage. Although its match against KotoR (SEQUEL COMING FOR KOTOR IN FEBRUARY!!! MY LIFE WILL BE COMPLETE!!!) was also unimpressive, I fail to see how a 60/40 victory against KotoR is much worse than a 57/43 victory against MGS2.

Maybe I'm underestimating MGS2 or overestimating KotoR (uh, I might be a little biased for the latter, in case you couldn't tell). MGS2, however, clearly does not have the backing that MGS has. As I said in another topic, MGS2 does not have the popularity of MGS any more than FFX has the popularity of FFVII. There is a sharp decrease in the fanbase for the "sequel" versus the "original". We don't really have any numbers for either KotoR or MGS2 except that Raiden got his ass handed to him by Solid Snake in '03. I am not convinced that MGS2 is more popular than KotoR by enough of a margin to give SSBM an automatic win in the next round.

Looking at the match from a different angle, SSBM did not land a very convincing victory against a less popular PS2 game, so why should anyone be convinced that it will do well against VC, a PS2 heavyweight, second only to FFX? I'd still say SSBM should be the favorite but don't count your chickens before they hatch. Vice City will not be a pushover.

Match Preview: Contra vs. Final Fantasy

Contra: A game not popular enough to beat Final Fantasy.

Final Fantasy: A game more than popular enough to beat Contra.

Wow, can you tell I don't really have my heart in this analysis? Honestly, screw this. Waste of pixels.

My prediction: Final Fantasy 70%, Contra 30%
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 31/32, Next Winner: Super Mario Bros. 3
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