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Spring 2004 Contest
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Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest - Part 4
From: jonthomson | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:22:52 AM | Message Detail
I never said I was confident, I just stated I was more confident than I was. The way people were talking was that Melee just needed to turn up to reach the last 8 and then should beat Wind Waker, and it's not exactly blowing MGS2 out of the water. Now you can't be so sure about it's chances. Ah well, my bracket's dead anyway, so it doesn't really matter.
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Jon Thomson - 25/31 - today: SSBM - tomorrow: Mario 3
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:25:36 AM | Message Detail
Why should you people be surprised? all the other games underperform why should SSBM be any different?
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:27:25 AM | Message Detail
SSBM is not underperforming.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:44:24 AM | Message Detail
I'm not convinced at all by Ulti. MGS2, unlike MGS, has its fair share of detractors, and not only for Raiden. I think if it was MGS facing SSBM, MGS would be winning by a few hundred votes right now, and the update topic would be exploding.

Heroic Tails: Of course I will. Oops, that's right, forgot to put that one for SMB3/Metroid. Well, here it is.

Previous Rounds

Metroid went way above expectations with a 68% win over Pac-Man, when most thought it would be around 60%. Will it be enough to take on SMB3? No... I think it would've beaten Pac-Man by even more, perhaps tripling it.

SMB3 wins, but credit to Metroid for exceeding expectations last round.

- Advantage SMB3.

Happy now? ;)
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM
From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:47:30 AM | Message Detail
Yes. ^_^
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Sign my petition!
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:48:52 AM | Message Detail
I would love to know where these detractors are, to be honest. I know I loed MGS2, that EGM gave it a 10, and that our review scores are off the charts, including my own 10.

MGS2 doesn`t have a 'lot' of detractors. They`re just more vocal than everyone else, and I`ll point to MWIS as my proof. He can`t enter one topic and leave people alone when they praise FFT, MGS2, or Final Fantasy 7.

And Metal Gear Solid would be winning? I doubt it. But hey, that`s what the future is for. Personally, I won`t deny SSBM`s strength until it actually loses. And even then, I`ll blame idiot fanboys, the new layout of the site, and GameSpot. It`s the trendy thing to do nowadays.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:51:40 AM | Message Detail
Detractors for MGS2:

http://archive.gamespy.com/articles/september03/25overrated/index25.shtml
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Sign my petition!
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:57:56 AM | Message Detail
And all of those people said the same things. They don`t like Raiden, they didn`t understand the dialogue, and thought the story was too farfetched.

Sorry, not buying it. I still think it was genius. And one needs only look at the fact that Gordon Freeman won their contest to see the true intelligence level of the GameSpy member.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:05:28 AM | Message Detail
And all of those people said the same things. They don`t like Raiden, they didn`t understand the dialogue, and thought the story was too farfetched.

If all the people who disliked MGS2 say the same things, maybe these things are, I don't know, actual flaws of the game?
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Sign my petition!
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679
From: cyko | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:17:52 AM | Message Detail

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
4) 72.62% - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
5) 71.26% - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
6) 69.66% - Super Mario 64 over Nights *
7) 66.58% - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
8) 64.60% - Super Mario Bros. 3 over Metal Gear *
9) 62.94% - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
10) 61.62% - Goldeneye 007 over Panzer Dragoon Saga *

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
4) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
5) 69753 - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
6) 61229 - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
7) 59648 - Sonic 2 over Shining Force
8) 56834 - Super Mario 64 over Nights *
9) 56376 - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
10) 53087 - Chrono Trigger over Secret of Mana

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 0.34% - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur #
4) 6.36% - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 12.32% - Metroid Prime over Half-Life #
6) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
7) 14.08% - Doom over Earthbound
8) 15.90% - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
9) 20.64% - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City over Star Wars: KOTOR @

10) 22.04% - Contra over Phantasy Star

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 373 - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur #
4) 4883 - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 9066 - Metroid Prime over Half-Life #
6) 11114 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
7) 12076 - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
8) 12164 - Doom over Earthbound
9) 18491 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City over Star Wars: KOTOR @

10) 20080 - Contra over Phantasy Star

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 112889 - Halo vs. Starcraft
2) 107150 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2
3) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall
4) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure
5) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons
6) 97126 - Sonic 2 vs. Shining Force
7) 97031 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt
8) 96704 - Super Mario RPG vs. Steet Fighter 2
9) 96186 - Final Fantasy 3/6 vs. Mortal Kombat
10) 96053 - Legend of Zelda: OOT vs. Fallout 2

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 65875 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #
2) 69876 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
3) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man *
4) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life #
5) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear *
6) 74688 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil *
7) 75583 - Goldeneye 007 vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga *
8) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia #
9) 76743 - Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: SotN *
10) 77424 - Final Fantasy X xs. Shenmue #

Top 10 Least Popular Polls without an Extra PotD (by vote totals)

1) 65875 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #
2) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life #
3) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia #
4) 77424 - Final Fantasy X xs. Shenmue #
5) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga
6) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4
7) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom
8) 86418 - Earthbound vs. Doom
9) 89619 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City over Star Wars: KOTOR @

10) 90152 - Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts #

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Current Score: 27/30 (through FFX vs Shenmue) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: cyko | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:18:42 AM | Message Detail

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda
2) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7
3) 86938 - Final Fantasy
4) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP
5) 82903 - Legend of Zelda: OOT
6) 79257 - Super Mario World
7) 78387 - Sonic 2
8) 71697 - Chrono Trigger
9) 70520 - Super Metroid
10) 70294 - Final Fantasy 3/6

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure
2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes
3) 12256 - Pitfall
4) 12375 - Nights *
5) 13150 - Fallout 2
6) 13197 - Metal Gear *
7) 14144 - Phantasy Star 4
8) 14504 - Panzer Dragoon Saga *
9) 15401 - Suikoden 2
10) 18028 - The Simpsons

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 56258 - Halo
2) 48444 - Duck Hunt
3) 44532 - Soul Calibur #
4) 42314 - Street Fighter 2
5) 37127 - Earthbound
6) 35930 - Perfect Dark
7) 35564 - Star Wars: KOTOR @

8) 35513 - Phantasy Star
9) 32288 - Half-Life #
10) 29381 - Pokemon G/S/C

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 40495 - Xenogears *
2) 40813 - Castlevania: SotN *
3) 41354 - Metroid Prime #
4) 43716 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance #
5) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts #
6) 48587 - Donkey Kong
7) 49291 - Doom
8) 49837 - Metroid *
9) 52745 - Metal Gear Solid *
10) 54055 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City @

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners without an Extra PotD (by votes)

1) 41354 - Metroid Prime #
2) 43716 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance #
3) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts #
4) 48587 - Donkey Kong
5) 49291 - Doom
6) 54055 - Grand Theft Auto: Vice City @

7) 54390 - Super Mario RPG
8) 55593 - Contra
9) 56544 - Legend of Zelda: WW #
10) 56631 - Starcraft

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) still, no data yet..... tomorrow's the big day!!........... maybe..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) no data yet...... Gamespot says we can't have stats..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

* = shared PotD with GameRiot or ESPN or FFXI poll

# = matches after the home-page layout change

@ = messed up two day match after the layout change

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Current Score: 27/30 (through FFX vs Shenmue) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: cyko | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:47:10 AM | Message Detail
lol, i really did go out on a limb on my SSBM prediction. looks like the limb broke. SSBM vs. Vice City should be a good match after all. now, i really can't see either beating FFX. and i'm not counting out FFX against Wind Waker yet either. after seeing the sales number comparison for Shenmue vs. Skies of Arcadia, Shenmue really might have been the tougher match.

and with that, Zelda has scored the largest blowout in each division. but, i still say that all Zelda Final Four will not happen. SMB3 will not lose. the other three have legitimate chances, but the original Zelda won't make it.

all else aside, it now looks like we will have SEVEN close Second Round matches. by close, i mean a 60/40 split or closer. here are the matches i believe are not yet set in stone:

(4) Super Mario World vs. (5) Sonic 2
- Mario is the clear favorite on this pro-Nintendo site, but, Sonic's impressive performance last round shows that it will be no pushover.

(3) Super Metroid vs. (6) Legend of Zelda: LTTP
- again, Zelda is a huge favorite despite the lower seeding, but Super Metroid also did very well last round. Link beat Samus 62% to 38% last year, but Super Metroid is the most popular game of the Metroid series. it has a small chance of an upset.

(4) Metal Gear Solid vs. (5) Final Fantasy Tactics
- after the major beating MGS gave Resident Evil last round, MGS is now the heavy favorite. however, any game with Final Fantasy in the title will not go down without a fight.

(3) Goldeneye 007 vs. (11) Castlevania: SotN
- Castlevania didn't beat Perfect Dark by very much last round, but Goldeneye wasn't exactly impressive against a game that only sold 6,000 copies. this match is a question of whether or not Goldeneye and Perfect Dark share the same fanbase.

(9) Kingdom Hearts vs. (16) Starcraft
- after each game won an insanely close match, noone really knows what to expect from this match. it could be a big win for either game or this one could be as close as the first two.

(4) Metroid Prime vs. (5) Legend of Zelda: WW
- our second Metroid vs. Zelda match of the round also appears to be in Zelda's favor. who knows, though; maybe Half-Life really is that popular.

(2) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (7) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
- in this screwy 128-Bit Division, we have no idea how things will wind up. this one could still go either way.

so, that means SMB3, Final Fantasy, Zelda 1, Tetris, Chrono Trigger, FF6, FF7, Zelda: OOT, and FFX all have free passes to the third round.

what does anyone else think?

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Current Score: 27/30 (through FFX vs Shenmue) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:54:55 AM | Message Detail
Are ya all ready? Fanboys? Gamers? Elites? Newbies? :) It's time for...the enhanced...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Indeed it is so, the infamous and ever humorous commentary continues, to offer some educated levity, here on this the true beacon of intelligence on this overly fanboy dominated board.

And so it proceeds, with the Icon riding on in the 2nd round of the "Ancient" Division

ROUND 2: Match XXXIII

(1)Super Mario Bros 3 vs (8)Metroid

Steve's Prediction: Mario 3 by 71.1%
Steve's Bracket: Mario 3
Newbie's Pick: Da Plumber
Upset Chances: Dreams come true, but not for you Samus!

Comments: Here we got the opening salvo of Round Deux, as Mario 3 does battle with Metroid in this intra-Nintendo warfare

The King of Platformers is riding high...the wind in his curly brown hair and crusty hat. Upon his loyal mascot, Yoshi, he rides off to outer space now after dominating in the dream world of Nights, then parking his steed at a planetary junction to don the Hammer Suit, knowing he will need more firepower to take out the First Lady of Nintendo...

First Lady Samus Aran knows she has upset the gaming world by knocking off one Icon, the Pac himself. She aims now at another one...the King himself. She has faced Krall...she has taken out Ridley...and even the Mother fell to her guns...but now, can she topple a King? Soon we will find out the inevitable truth Samus faces...and that is defeat... THWOMP!

Why Mario Will Win: Voting blocks: Nintendites, Mario fanboys, Historical voters. Facts: More sales, Better game.

Why Metroid Wont Win: Not enough Samus fans or anti-Mario/Nintendo votes. (Yes Samus is Nintendo made, but Mario IS Nintendo)

Probable Results: The King shall bop the Lady with a 70% voting differential with ease, leading the best selling NES game in history to the Sweet 16.

Best Bosses: Mario 3: Lemmy Koopa and his bouncy balls. Total goober. Metroid: Mother Brain all the way, its a no brainer! Get it? ^_^
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SCK24: 28/32 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 5/5/2004 6:55:58 AM | Message Detail
Hmm I think only 2 of those matches are potential thrillers, SC vs KH and to a lesser degree SSBM vs Vice City.
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Contest Score: 31-0
Next Pick : SSBM
From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 7:13:59 AM | Message Detail
Slowflake:
I think if it was MGS facing SSBM, MGS would be winning by a few hundred votes right now

A few hundred votes? I *highly* doubt it would be that close.

cyko:
SMB3 will not lose. the other three have legitimate chances, but the original Zelda won't make it.

I don't see how A Link to the Past has a chance, but The Legend of Zelda does not.

If SMB3 gets close to 70% against Metroid, then it would have to be the big favorite again, but I don't think it can do that.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2004 7:38:00 AM | Message Detail
so, that means SMB3, Final Fantasy, Zelda 1, Tetris, Chrono Trigger, FF6, FF7, Zelda: OOT, and FFX all have free passes to the third round.

I think that Tetris vs. Pong will be about a 60%-40%
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 28/31 SSBM vs. MGS2
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 7:52:38 AM | Message Detail
*** ROUND 1 WINNERS AND LOSERS ***

WINNERS

STAR OF THE ROUND - The Zelda series: Before the contest began, it was widely expected that all the Zelda games would get to the Elite 8, then suffer four consecutive losses in the division finals. And now... all of them are favored quite a bit to win their division, with only SMB3 and FF7 to show signs of resistance.

Wind Waker's most potent rivals collapsed one after the other: KH, MP, FF10, and now SSBM. And things are looking just as good for LttP. Then there's LoZ's unequaled blowout of Adventure. We knew something big would happen, but getting above 95% came right out of left field. As it was said jokingly back then, "there are more Zelda fans on GameFAQs than there are men". And finally... FF7/OoT is going to be orgasmic. 'Nuff said.

Super Mario Bros. 3: With a very impressive 82-18 blowout over Metal Gear, the first game of what would become a very successful series with its later installments, SMB3 showed what it was made of. It didn't seem hindered by the good ol' anti-votes Mario got in the Summer Contests. It may be the one to prevent an all-Zelda Final 4...

Metroid: Where most people saw a "close, but not quite" match with Pac-Man, Metroid proved the power of sequels and doubled the pellet-muncher. Not enough to beat SMB3, but it gave us the first clues that would lead to bigger, stranger things happening.

Contra: Its match with Phantasy Star was supposed to be a nailbiter... it all depended on whether enough people had played Contra to top PS' superior name recognition. It turned out to be true, as Contra not only won, but posted a 62%. Had FF1 not retaliated in such a glorious fashion the next day, Contra/FF1 would've looked interesting. But I expect it to defend itself well enough to prove it's not a fluke.

Duck Hunt: It was the big underdog coming into its match. It even got the much undeserved status of "joke entry" *coughitbeatcontrainnominations*. Things went much according to a lot of users' plan (or Alucard's, as the case may be) for the first 10 hours, and it looked like DK would win with above 55%. However, Duck Hunt suddenly started charging back from a 3200-vote deficit for the rest of the day, and hadn't DK won an update or two near the end, it would've won. Tip your hats off for the little duck that could.

Pong: Everyone knows of Pong. Problem is, it's not that exciting. And that's why it went into this match as a slight favorite instead of a big one, despite what the BOP numbers may say. Shocker... another bigger-than-expected blowout. And unlike with Metroid, in Pong's case, especially with Tetris failing to meet expectations, it just might mean something...

Super Mario RPG: Had Europe had more power in the voting, it would've lost. Simple as that. It was trailing for the first six hours... then, in a scenario reminescent of Knuckles vs. Yuna (except that Yuna never actually led), SMRPG took the lead, and never looked back en route to a 10000-vote victory. Its victory caused the biggest outroar yet, for SMRPG represents all that is wrong with the world to the eyes of the anti-fanboys. RPG, Square, Nintendo, Mario.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2: Pulling over 80% against Shining Force isn't what brings Sonic 2 here. No, it's the fact that with SMW's similar performance against an arguably weaker opponent, it could have a chance to win this clash of the titans next round. And, in the process, maybe, just maybe, have a shot at Chrono Trigger... (see below)

Doom: Very similar to SMRPG, in that it pulled a decent margin of victory in a potential nailbiter... only difference is that the percentages were pretty stable. It also showed that the PC games that made it in despite the trashy nomination system were not to be underestimated.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 7:53:01 AM | Message Detail
Final Fantasy 7: After CT tripped in its match, all eyes were turned towards FF7 to see if this would affect Square as a whole. Answer: No. FF7 was totally overwhelming, and poor Suikoden 2 was left to rot, proving that it was more than able competition for OoT.

Xenogears: On the first attempt to hold the poll, only registered users could vote, blocking the casual vote, and Xenogears was winning with a fair margin over Pokémon. Then, when the poll was taken down, speculation abounded as to what would happen the next day. And much to the shock of many, Xenogears was actually winning by more! The casual voters weren't nearly as pro-Pokémon as expected.
Doesn't matter if Xenogears won because of anti-votes, not everything could pull that. Just ask PaRappa.

Super Mario 64: Yet another case of the "bigger-blowout-than-expected-yet-has-no-chance-next-round". I won't comment on that again.

Halo: Combat Evolved: Yes, I know, it lost despite being the slight favorite. But, to hold its own that well against Starcraft despite the armies of X-Box haters AND those that just plain don't own one certainly deserves recognition. It came close, very close. If there's a reason why I want to see the stats ASAP, it's for that match.

Starcraft: Ah, Starcraft. The little 16-seed that could. A testament to how crappy the nomination system was, as is Halo. That match should've been 7 vs. 10 or 8 vs. 9, by all means. Anyway, the reasons Starcraft is here are well documented... PC finally beats a worthy opponent (even though Halo is no powerhouse, I'll give you that).

Soul Calibur: If Soul Calibur 2 isn't responsible for the results, then I don't know what is. It came way too close to KH, and even led until the evening rolled about. The "other" SC supposedly had no chance to escape being doubled, let alone win, yet it came this close from pulling a bigger upset than Squall over Luigi was.

Half-Life: Most annoying fanbase on the board aside, you gotta give Half-Life props. Metroid Prime is one of the most praised games of this generation, and a PC FPS nails more than 40% on it. Sure, it may be THE PC shooter, but on a site as pro-console and pro-Metroid as this is, this comes off as a shocker.

Final Fantasy Tactics Advance: It was one of the games that was the most likely to be upset first round, yet it almost doubles Fire Emblem. Either FE wasn't all that played among GameFAQs visitors, or the FF name really has this kind of power. I'm thinking the latter.

Metal Gear Solid 2: Either it's another case of massive franchise vote keeping the game alive, or it's really a testament to the opponent's weakness. Dunno... but it was expected to flop, with a bit below 40%. Isn't happening.

LOSERS

TURD OF THE ROUND - Kingdom Hearts: Three letters. D-U-D. KH was one of the board's favorite wildcard picks to go deep in the bracket. And it almost loses. First round. To a Dreamcast fighter. Let me repeat that. IT ALMOST LOST TO A DREAMCAST FIGHTER! Granted, this probably was the biggest title for Dreamcast, but on GameFAQs it's not like it means much. Soul Calibur 2 may have played a part in this match, but I'd have expected KH to beat it as well. The match against Starcraft is going to be extremely difficult for the game that supposedly had no decent competition in its 4-pack... turns out it may not be decent competition itself.

Pac-Man: How the mighty have fallen. Last year it lost to an assortment of vegetables (that was SO not Kefka he faced) and now it gets doubled by Metroid. Not Super. Not Prime. The original. The worst game in the series (though everyone would be a gamer by now if every series had a "worst game" of this quality"). Ouch.

Phantasy Star: It had higher name recognition to the young ones who were in diapers or not even born in Contra's prime. It's an RPG. And it STILL blew it. And hardcore at that. Not even 40% on Contra, on GameFAQs.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 7:53:45 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong: Looks like franchise power works better for recent titles... because if Duck Hunt was facing DKC2, it'd have lost by a lot. Poor Donkey Kong... always in a scenario to fight for his life. First a TJF Square girl, then a mobster from a best-seller... and now a laughing dog. Up and down and up and down it goes.

Adventure: If it's not Amazing Telephone writing this, then it's worthless trying to outline how funny that slaughter was.

Tetris: Not breaking 80% against Galaga = bad, for a game that got played by more people than everything short of SMB1. Pong's performance against a superior opponent puts Tetris, not necessarily in jeopardy, but at least in the hot seat.

Chrono Trigger: Before the KH match happened, CT seemed to have the Turd Of The Round title locked up. So much was expected out of this game... for the most part, we had it going to the finals. After giving 22% to Secret of Mana of all games, it's in danger, not only against SMB3 or LoZ, not even only against LttP, but it's going to be fighting for its bracket life as soon as ROUND 3!

Shining Force, The Simpsons, Gunstar Heroes, Phantasy Star 4: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

Final Fantasy 6: Giving 27% to the FIRST Mortal Kombat killed what little chance it had of beating LttP. Shame... it was an awesome game. But hey, Kefka bombing last year wasn't enough of a warning, I suppose.

Earthbound: It's official... cult classics always lose. Unless your opponent is...

Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal: Those who picked Pokémon argued that the hate that plagued Pikachu wouldn't affect his games, since Pikachu seems to have replaced the $ symbol these days in the gaming industry, AND Pokémon is highly ranked on the FAQ search logs. Well, what do I know... it loses to a cult Square game. Square, but still cult. Only a good performance by Xenogears against FF7 can redeem Pokémon... but hey, there were first round losers in my "Round 2 Winners And Losers" last year, too.

Metroid Prime: What I said for Half-Life. PLUS, there was a sponsored poll asking for the highest ranked GameCube game on GameRankings. Metroid Prime was the correct answer... yet Wind Waker still killed it. If you still think Prime has a chance in hell of beating WW... you're hopeless.

Final Fantasy 10: Pulling the same numbers against Shenmue as your main opponent did against SoA = Instant Loss.

Fire Emblem: With all these "closer than expected" matches in division 128, FE seemed to be primed for a good performance. Nope. But, a lot of its publicity came from...

Super Smash Bros. Melee: This is way too close to tell if it can beat Vice City. Most of the people on this topic agreed it would, but now it looks like it's going down to the wire. And we're talking about a game it's sacreligious not to have if you own a GameCube. And as many people own GameCubes as PS2s on this site. The road to the Elite 8 looks pretty dang steep now.

Sega: Nearly all the games that were on Sega consoles have been decimated. Gunstar Heroes got less than 10%. Shining Force, Phantasy Star 4, Panzer Dragoon Saga and NiGHTS failed to snag 20%, and Skies of Arcadia and Shenmue barely got over 25%. That leaves Sonic 2 and Soul Calibur... the latter already lost, leaving the former as sole representative of all things Sega. And even its fate is uncertain... it loses honorably next round at worst, it goes to the Elite 8 at best. Wait... I'm forgetting something... Phantasy Star. Tells you how Sega did NOT make its presence felt, except for these two saving graces (one being from Namco anyway).
From: neonreaper | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:16:17 AM | Message Detail
Pooooor Shining Force.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:25:08 AM | Message Detail
Excellent analysis, slowflake. Look forward to reading your round 2 overview.
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Si Hoc Legere Potes Nimium Eruditionis Habes
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:26:57 AM | Message Detail
Well, I probably won't make it, seeing how Cyko made one of his own, and the only thing I disagree with is that Pong/Tetris could be interesting.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM
From: steve illumina | Posted: 5/5/2004 8:34:29 AM | Message Detail
Cyko and Slowflake: Nice work on your Round 2 preview and Round 1 summary respectively.
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SCK24: 28/32 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 10:20:05 AM | Message Detail
Great work Slowflake. Nice summaries. Some comments:

Super Mario 64: Yet another case of the "bigger-blowout-than-expected-yet-has-no-chance-next-round".

The average prediction was just over 84%, so I wouldn't really say it differed much from expectations.

Metroid. Not Super. Not Prime. The original. The worst game in the series

I think the original was the most successful of the series. It was one of the biggest NES games, and the NES was bigger than any othe Nintendo system. Tough to find sales data for back then though.

Before the KH match happened, CT seemed to have the Turd Of The Round title locked up

Whoa there...I'd hardly call that a turd. Not even close. It was mildly disappointing maybe. The average Oracle prediction 81.94%, it got 79.39%. It just failed to live up to its upside. And Secret of Mana is a non-trivial opponent.
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From: red sox 777 | Posted: 5/5/2004 1:51:34 PM | Message Detail
I figured there was no way it sold 600K in the past few months...games just don't sell that much that long after release. It's been out for a while. It'll get a boost this Christmas and when it hits the bargain bin, and should be higher than 2.2 by now, but it is still unlikely to pass the original.

For most games, I would agree with you, but SSBM has incredibly long legs. If I'm not mistaken, it was the 3rd highest selling Gamecube game last Christmas. With another year and a half (assuming a 2005 N5 launch) or 2 and a half years (assuming a 2006 launch), SSBM should easily catch the original.

WW actually has 700k sold in Japan, so I don't think Europe and Australia can cover the nearly 900K needed to put WW over 3 mil.

European numbers are hard to come by, but using Ocarina of Time sales:

NA: ~3.5 mil.
JP: ~1.45 mil.
Worldwide: 7 mil. +

That leaves over 2 mil. units for Europe and Australia, higher than Japan's 1.45 mil.

Assuming then, that the trend of Zelda games selling more in Europe + Australia than in Japan continued through Wind Waker, it would seem likely that WW has surpassed 3 mil. Of course, we have no concrete numbers, so this remains in doubt.

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Spring Contest 2004 (Best. Game. Ever.): My Score: 29/31 Today's Pick: Super Smash Bros. Melee
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 1:59:19 PM | Message Detail
I`d call the turd of the first round Halo, not Kingdom Hearts. People keep forgetting how big a factor Soul Calibur 2 played in that match. And SC still lost.
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From: smitelf | Posted: 5/5/2004 2:02:19 PM | Message Detail
Ulti:
SSBM is not underperforming.

If it isn’t underperforming in this match then it’s going to have problems with Vice City next round as I’ve said all along. I have Vice City in my bracket and after the past two matches I am confident that the Vice City vs. SSBM match will be close.

Ulti:
And all of those people said the same things. They don`t like Raiden, they didn`t understand the dialogue, and thought the story was too farfetched.

Sorry, not buying it. I still think it was genius. And one needs only look at the fact that Gordon Freeman won their contest to see the true intelligence level of the GameSpy member.


The fact that people had many of the same comments to make show that there are pervasive problems in the game that are going through the minds of more than one voter. Whether YOU personally saw them as problems or not isn’t the issue. I’m glad you enjoyed the game – no one is saying you can’t like it -- but clearly there were many people who did not and insulting the intelligence of GameSpy users isn’t going to make that go away. If SSBM gets past Vice City it won’t be because the average IQ of a GameFAQs user is higher than that of a GameSpy member.

Slowflake:
Final Fantasy 10: Pulling the same numbers against Shenmue as your main opponent did against SoA = Instant Loss.

Haha! Hope you’re not counting on it. All the games in this division underperformed and I still don’t understand why Skies of Arcadia is considered to be so highly superior to Shenmue in popularity. They’re both fodder here. The fact that both Wind Waker and Final Fantasy X pulled unimpressive numbers against unimpressive opponents only tells me that the match will be a good one.

Matches that may be close in round 2 include:

Sonic 2 vs. Super Mario World: Both games managed predictable blowouts against their approximately equally lame first-round opponents. On one hand, no game from Nintendo’s three biggest franchises on this site (Mario, Metroid, Zelda) has lost a match yet. Nintendo is bound to break this record with its next match, since two of its games are pitted against each other, and somehow I doubt that SMRPG will be able to match the power of Chrono Trigger. Nintendo’s biggest threats are from itself and Square; not much else can touch it on this site. Sega? As Slowflake said in his excellent first-round winners and losers post, Sega is not hot here. No, Sega is not popular on this site, and Super Mario World is no pushover.
My prediction: Super Mario World

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs. Goldeneye: SotN has proven itself to be a worthy opponent for an N64 FPS. It was too worthy for Perfect Dark, it appears, but what of Goldeneye? Goldeneye is more popular than Perfect Dark but will it be enough to make up the difference in vote totals between SotN and PD? I say absolutely. In fact, I’m not seriously expecting this match to be too close but I figured I’d put it down here because it’s so well-hyped. If Goldeneye can’t scrounge up 55% or thereabouts against Castlevania, I’ll be pretty surprised.
My prediction: Goldeneye

continued in next post
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 29/30, Next Winner: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/5/2004 2:04:43 PM | Message Detail
Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts: Starcraft, the greatest success story of round one (or, as Slowflake put it, “the little 16-seed that could”), is coming back in round two to face the most disappointing game of round one, Kingdom Hearts. Before Kingdom Hearts scrounged up its downright LAUGHABLE victory against Soul Calibur in round 1, I would have been rolling around on the floor hysterical at the idea of Starcraft not only defeating Halo but a Square RPG, too. Now, I’m not so sure. Starcraft is determined to make this contest exciting while Kingdom Hearts is lackluster. Sure, people may have confused Soul Calibur with Soul Calibur II but REGARDLESS, such a low victory against *any* fighting game, no matter the number, shows an unimpressive base of support for KH, and on a Square RPG-biased site, no less. I’ll probably bounce back and forth on this match, but for now:
My prediction: Starcraft, though my bracket says Kingdom Hearts

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee: Neither summoned an impressive victory in its first round match (unless SSBM makes a major jump by midnight PST tonight). Considering that GTA:VC can reasonably be expected to be superior in popularity to MGS2 and that SSBM isn’t doing so hot against MGS2, people might finally start believing me when I say this match will be close.
My prediction: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Matches that will be VERY interesting in round 2 include:

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Super Metroid: While I don’t expect this match to be terribly close, what it *will* do is show us what LttP can do against a worthy opponent. I was not impressed by its blowout against Gunstar Heroes. What *would* impress me would be a 60%+ victory against Super Metroid. I’m not asking for a blowout, just a solid victory against a solid game. Then, and *only* then, will I take LttP seriously as a threat to Chrono Trigger.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 29/30, Next Winner: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/5/2004 2:05:19 PM | Message Detail
When I said worst Metroid, I talked about quality. I've played them all, and frankly I liked Metroid 2 and Fusion a bit more. Though Metroid would still get a comfortable 8/10 in my book.

Off-topic: My brother and I bought a used copy of the Zelda collection, you know the one with LoZ, AoL, OoT and MM... and dang are these NES Zeldas hard compared to the new ones. I mean, there's hard and then there's hard!
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM
From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 5/5/2004 2:11:04 PM | Message Detail
Nice analyses.

One comment:

Pulling the same numbers against Shenmue as your main opponent did against SoA = Instant Loss.

Huh? Shenmue is if anything the bigger game of the two, roughly tripling both incarnations of SoA combined in sales, as well as having more following on GameFAQs:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/dreamcast/

SoA strikes me as Earthbound or Suikoden 2 all over again. Popular among those who've played it, enough to get it into the contest with a decent seed over more played games, and well-loved on the board... but without much hope to actually win a poll.
From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 3:45:57 PM | Message Detail
When I said worst Metroid, I talked about quality.

We have to talk in objective terms though, and while Metroid isn't as strong as the others because of its age, I'd probably say that it would've been stronger in its day than Super Metroid was in its or Metroid Prime is now.


Well, I certainly would never have suspected that Shenmue was bigger at GameFAQs than Skies of Arcadia. You hear about Skies of Arcadia a good deal on this site, but I rarely heard anything about Shenmue. A part of me hopes it isn't true, because while I never played Shenmue, I did play and liked Skies of Arcadia.

But more of me hopes that it is true, because I really want Final Fantasy X to do well. Note that it certainly was not my bias towards the game that caused me to expect it would PWN Shenmue; I can tell when my bias is getting in the way. I just thought Shenmue was a total joke of an entrant. If it is comparable to Skies of Arcadia, as many are saying now, I'd be relieved for Final Fantasy X.

I wonder if it's really true though, because again, I just never heard much support for Shenmue on this site (or anywhere, for that matter).
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:04:41 PM | Message Detail
SSBM has passed 56%. I now expect it to get roughly 65% against Vice City.

There should be at least one other game that increases its performance from first round to second round--the winner of Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts. Whichever wins will almost certainly do so by more than they did in the 1st. There's also an outside chance that Castlevania will improve; if it does beat Goldeneye it'll probably do so by more than 53%. But I would be utterly shocked if it can beat Goldeneye. I just don't see it making that match truly competitive. I'll probably predict Goldeneye with 58%-64% in the Oracle challenge when the time comes.

There's also the chance that Final Fantasy VII will do better against Xenogears than against Suikoden II, but I doubt that also. I expect it to get 80%-84% there.

Other than that I don't think any game can improve on its first round performance. Maybe Final Fantasy VI, though Doom appears to be strong at this site. It seems odd to me that Doom would be stronger than Mortal Kombat, but I guess it has aged a lot better.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:06:22 PM | Message Detail
lol @ slow. Man, I know the original Zelda so well that I could give you directions to every secret on the first quest without having to think about it. I played that game so many times that even as a child I could beat it without continues, should I happen to have the time to play it all the way through. It's not hard, it's good, and OoT and everytihng after replaces challenge with length. Instead of a better experiece you just get a longer experience. And for that (and the horrible move to 3d), I will never be able to fogive them.

OH, and you're so full of ****, too. SoM was one kick ass game, and if it wasn't going up against CT or FF6 it would have had a serious shot of making round 2. It could have kept any non-rpg opponent close even if it couldn't beat it. Oh, and as a real sign you're full of ****, you've insulted both SSBM AND MGS2? Are you insane or did you fall and hit your head on a rock? MGS2 is, as was said, one of the best PS2 games for a logn time. It still is. I'm not even a big fan of it and I'm still going to say that it's more deserving than half the games in the 128 division AND that only one game in the whole contest was more unjustly underseeded. If anything, It's almost a mirror of Halo's pathetic overseeding. MGS2 absolutely should have had an 8 seed or higher, especially considering the competition, and only two things could have prevented it from getting it's deverved spot. One, GameFAQs regs underestimate how great the works of Kojima are. You stand as an example of that, obviously. Two, Ceej that it'd make a fun match up with SSBM because both were first gen games that really got their systems going. I'm glad MGS2 is putting up a decent fight, and I hope that VC in turn gets stomped by Melee showing everyone where is belongs.

Oh, and VC didn't exactly do well, so it's not like it should be expected to win.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: cyko | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:16:08 PM | Message Detail
as always, nice analysis, Slowflake! ^_^

the only things i don't agree with are:

Final Fantasy 6: Giving 27% to the FIRST Mortal Kombat killed what little chance it had of beating LttP. Shame... it was an awesome game. But hey, Kefka bombing last year wasn't enough of a warning, I suppose.

Mortal Kombat is a pretty popular fighting series here. 73% wasn't that terrible. now if FF6 gets under 65% against Doom, then it's in serious trouble.

Final Fantasy 10: Pulling the same numbers against Shenmue as your main opponent did against SoA = Instant Loss.

we really don't know that for a fact. we're just kind of assuming at this point. we may have seriously underestimated Shenmue. then again, i was seriously unimpressed with FFX's performance, but i still haven't given up on FFX just yet.


I don't see how A Link to the Past has a chance, but The Legend of Zelda does not.

If SMB3 gets close to 70% against Metroid, then it would have to be the big favorite again, but I don't think it can do that.

the thing about LTTP is that if it gets past FF6, then i could realistically see it beating Chrono Trigger, since both are Square RPGs that do share a similar fanbase. as for the original Zelda, it's blowout against Adventure was against THE most obscure game of the contest. i know that i expected it to score somewhere in hte mid-nineties. and i know i wasn't the only one not surprised by the huge blowout.

Zelda 1 is pretty much the third most popular game of the series while SMB3 is the easy favorite of it's series. it's Mario at his best. and when Zelda 1 scores it's second huge blowout in a row against DK, it's still not a sign of Zelda being unstoppable. Zelda has a much easier path than SMB3 (Adventure, DK, Tetris opposed to Metal Gear, Metroid, Final Fantasy). so, even though Zelda will appear stronger with bigger victories, it's because of the easier opponents. we'll see how much it pounds Metroid by. 70% isn't out of reach for SMB3.

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Current Score: 29/32 (through SSBM vs MGS2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: cyko | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:25:24 PM | Message Detail
speaking of SMB3........


cyko's Point of View

Match 33

(1) Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. (8) Metroid


both games performed better than expected last round. but as it's been said before, SMB3 is Mario at his best, while Metroid is Samus at her weakest. in a match where both games are so well-known, the franchise voting shouldn't be much of a factor. in fact, the next three matches will all be big, un-exciting blowouts. the only item of analysis seems to be how much SMB3 needs to get to appear unstoppable against Zelda. i would agree that if SMB3 gets 70%, then the division is already over. in fact, as long as SMB3 gets two-thirds of the vote, it is still the clear favorite.

prediction: Super Mario Bros. 3 with 66-70%

my bracket: Super Mario Bros. 3

personal favorite: Super Mario Bros. 3
- who didn't love being able to throw hammers or swim like a frog or hop around in Kuribo's Shoe? and do you remember the first time you made Mario fly? i get warm and tingly just thinking about it.

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Current Score: 29/32 (through SSBM vs MGS2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:25:27 PM | Message Detail
Chichiri, this is the second time you've tried to start a flame war with somebody in one of these topics without provocation. Why in the world are you being so antagonistic?

I also found the NES Zeldas to be very tough by the way. I never did beat them...I think I got stuck on dungeon 6 of the original, though I can't recall. And I couldn't make it to the last dungeon of Adventure of Link. That damned swamp or whatever it was, the one that you had to pass to get to the last dungeon. Could never beat that. Of course, I was a lot worse at video games back then.

...hmmm, SQL server was messing up.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
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From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:28:44 PM | Message Detail
Match #31 Review:

Woah. Vice City did a whole lot worse than I expected. I think this just points to its second-round match against SSBM being a nailbiter...it'll be tough to call a winner when that poll comes around.

Match #33 Preview:

Meh. Back to the boring old 8-bit Division. SMB3, obviously.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:32:04 PM | Message Detail
Ah, The Legend of Zelda and Legend of Zelda II: Adventure of Link are some great Zelda games. =)
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From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:33:10 PM | Message Detail
I`m glad we`re going back to the 8-bit and 16-bit divisions, they are my favorite two eras in gaming with my favorite games. =P
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.
From: redline15 | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:34:00 PM | Message Detail
...wow.
that was a lot to read slowflake, and i thank you for it...but damned if i don't disagree with just about all of it.

some of my biggest gripes have already been mentioned, so here are the others:

Final Fantasy Tactics Advance: It was one of the games that was the most likely to be upset first round...

i do remember a lot of hype for fire emblem...
...but i can't remember anyone that said that it would win.

Looks like franchise power works better for recent titles...

...i thought we'd decided that the exact opposite of this was true. because of how close the 128 division was.
outside of metal gear and ff6, the first three divisions followed the summer contest pretty closely...

...because if Duck Hunt was facing DKC2, it'd have lost by a lot.

why would dkc2 be a big draw at gamefaqs?
quality alone does not lead to votes...
...and this is donkey kong we're talking about here...

After giving 22% to Secret of Mana of all games...

...secret of mana is a square game.
i'm almost surprised it didn't do better than it did...

and finally...

jonthomson:
Does SM stand any chance at all in this match?
slowflake:
No.

umm...you...kind of lost five of the six debated matches in the first round.

i agree that lttp will probably win next round...
...but at this point i'm not sure you should be giving anything "no chance"...
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:51:12 PM | Message Detail
Two? Maybe since you got back, and even then I'm not trying to start a flame war. I'm trying to say certain people make assumptions that I think are total bull****. Asumming SoM is weak is BS, assuming that MGS2 is weak is BS, assuming I was wrong about Xenogears still beating Pokemon... well, okay, slowflake just makes crazy assumptions, and other people jump into it when there is absolutely no need for them to. If you'd like to jump in the middle of this I can argue with you for the next two pages or you can sit back, relax, and learn a thing or two from the people who actually bothered to stick around in this topic during the offseason. You won't see them argue with me anymore, I overreact and they politely disagree and we continue on like nothing happened. It sparks debate, it focuses the topic on one subject instead of every third person going on about something we talked about 2 topics ago and it makes the multitude of analysis posts look less annoying. It does, however, reinforce the fact that some people come in here post their opinions and then never actually get involved with the discussion. Their loss, I guess. It's all good fun, man, and there's no reason to take insult. It's just my way of saying "I love you, but your opinion sucks"
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:56:53 PM | Message Detail
and learn a thing or two from the people who actually bothered to stick around in this topic during the offseason

I was here for much of the pre-season discussion, if that's what you're talking about. And I doubt there's much I can "learn" from you. Though I do agree with what you're saying about Secret of Mana and MGS2, you don't need to be so crass about it.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
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From: Yesmar | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:57:52 PM | Message Detail
There should be at least one other game that increases its performance from first round to second round--the winner of Starcraft vs. Kingdom Hearts.

I wouldn't be surprised if FFX or FFVI did better in the second round either, although less so for FFVI.
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From: creativename | Posted: 5/5/2004 4:59:43 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, forgot about Final Fantasy X facing Tactics Advance.
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From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:04:58 PM | Message Detail
I'm still not convinced that there's really a guaranteed 128 winner yet. I mean, it's relatively safe to say that Tactics Advance doesn't stand a chance in heck of making it, but I can see each of the other seven managing to take the title. Sure, some are weaker than others (Kingdom Hearts especially, whose only strength seems to be to have shown the FF characters to an audience that otherwise wouldn't have seen them), but each of them could realistically take the title.

I think that it'll take until the end of Round 2 to really cement the actual placement of the 128 games. I mean, it's hard to stake the actual fanbase of a lot of these. Did people vote for Starcraft or against Halo? Did people really like Half-Life, or were they just trying to stop Metroid Prime? As far as I can tell, Round 1 only served to eliminate half the games, not give us a very clear picture as to how the rest of the division is going to go down.
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From: Haste2 | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:06:41 PM | Message Detail
Well, I'm certain Secret of Mana is more popular than Suikoden II. What scares me, however, is that Shenmue and Skies of Arcadia scored a higher percentage against big hits than Secret of Mana managed. THe thought of Shenmue beating Secret of Mana... O_O Bah, Chrono Trigger MUST be that strong, not Secret of Mana that WEAK. :P (or maybe there WAS SFF in that match...) Oh, and I must highly disagree with ncr that Secret of Mana would beat Super Mario RPG. :P

And while we're talking about RPGs, it will be most interesting to see how Xenogears does next round...I wonder if it could pull a Shenmue?

Looking at MGS2 vs. SSBM, it is going exactly as I expected. I believe that MGS2 would beat KotOR with at least 55%, so I think SSBM should take next round, probably with 52-55%. I don't see why MGS would have more fans than MGS2...I don't think Raiden will cause THAT many people to dislike the game.

If Starcraft gets really close to Kingdom Hearts (or beats it), however, I might rethink Halo's strength, and thus KotOR's strength, and then put much more consideration in a Vice City victory.

Lastly, notice how SSBM is doing as well as METROID PRIME did. Looks like to me that SSBM would beat MP rather handily. That's yet another reason to think Zelda: WW will proceed to Round 3.

Oh, and here's something to think about: What games in the contest would lose to Gunstar Heroes, besides the obvious Adventure?


(hm, I just noticed with these new boards you can have more than 1 line of space...)

---
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From: HikarunoGo | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:18:37 PM | Message Detail
One, I didn't say anything about learning anything from me. I was trying to say look at how Ulti, Slow, and Shake (and the others) tend to react to me. And no, the preseason doesn't count. By off-season I mean the topics that had off-season in their titles. These were at a time when you didn't really post much. Furthermore, I can be crass if I choose. I CAN be delicate about the words I use, but this is a message board and there is no damn good reason why I should be. Besides, I'd rather openly insult your opinion than subtly insult you as a person like some creatively named people seemed to have attempted. If I subtly insult you, however, its just me saying your opinion sucks double time. As you'll notice I don't insult people when I do agree or when they attack games I don't give a crap about. I passionately defend my favorites, and SoM is one of them, and if you want to see me really go off try insulting several of my favorites in the same breath. You'll never live down slighting my games en masse. So yeah, I speak with the vile tongue of one who doesn't care that this is a message board and that anybody may gets their feelings hurt over it. Because, after all it is a message board, and if you take it that seriously I can't wait 'til Shake gets a piece of ya.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:29:19 PM | Message Detail
"I love you, but your opinion sucks"

That`s exactly how you should take any and all Chichiri posts. Trust me, it makes things beter around here. And besides, any of us would get defensive if our favorite games were insulted like that. I myself was about to say something, but Chichiri beat me to it.

So what I did I do to cool myself off after seeing everyone jump off the SSBM bandwagon? I went online in Madden 2004 and aboslutely beat some ass. I`m now ranked 555.
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From: smitelf | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:39:54 PM | Message Detail
Match Review: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

Yet another instance of the superior game losing. Vice City's showing in this match can be looked at in several ways and most of them simplify the matter. The only way one can really look at this match is to compare VC's performance with SSBM's and the rest of the games in its division. Division 128 has proven itself to be incapable of blowouts, with the possible exception of FFX vs. FFTA next round. A 60/40 victory against KotoR isn't TOO bad, just as SSBM's current percentage isn't TOO bad, but I'd say the two games are on reasonably equal footing now. I'll probably go more in-depth in my review of SSBM tomorrow.

Match Preview: Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metroid

SMB3: Mario's shining hour and the game heavily favored to win its division. It's strong, period.

Metroid: One of the lesser games of the Metroid series, popularity-wise. Some have said that it was very popular in its day but that popularity simply hasn't had the lasting power of SMB3's.

SMB3 will win. It won't be a blowout because Metroid is a respectable game but the results are still obvious and not worth the time to analyse, really. What will be interesting will be how much SMB3 wins by.

My prediction: SMB3 67.5%, Metroid 32.5%
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 30/31, Next Winner: Super Smash Bros. Melee
From: smitelf | Posted: 5/5/2004 5:46:12 PM | Message Detail
So what I did I do to cool myself off after seeing everyone jump off the SSBM bandwagon? I went online in Madden 2004 and aboslutely beat some ass. I`m now ranked 555.

Indeed. At least you can't accuse me of being fickle as I have Vice City beating SSBM in my bracket. What is this "Madden" that you speak of? Is it some new RPG I should know about? No, wait, it *can't* be from Square because I would have heard of it, and therefore it is pointless to bother typing its unworthy name.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 30/31, Next Winner: Super Smash Bros. Melee
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