Match #30 Review:

Woah. FFX was weaker than expected...what could this mean?

Match #32 Preview:

While SSBM will definitely win, I think this match will be closer than most people expect. I doubt SSBM will break 65%.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Exactly the point I made about this era a while ago. Video games are more successful now than ever, however there is a lack of outlier titles in terms of sales/memorability. Perhaps a sign of a maturing industry, or perhaps just a fluke (since true all-time classic are rare, the absence of a couple can really stand out).


I don't think it's a fluke. The gaming industry has changed over the years. When I see the sales data from Slowflake's analysis, the older games sold a lot more copies. At that point in time, video games were a relatively new thing. There was little competition at that time as well. This meant that the majority of gamers played the same system and same games.

Nowadays, we have several systems competing for our money. Not only that but the lifespan of console systems seems shorter. There is so much fragmentation going on that I doubt any game from this era will match the impact of the older "classics."
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Sp2004 Score:26/29 Today's Pick: FFX
Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest

*looks at the two most recent NP magazines*
SSBM was the 5th best selling GC game for 2 months straight, and was the #3 seller the month before that. I can't seem to figure out what months they actually were, but I'd guess the months were December/January/February. That really is something.

Indeed, SSBM getting 70% against MGS2 is really a stretch. Seeing how GTA:VC can only get 60% on KotOR, I will really be impressed if SSBM can get over 60% against MGS2. Oh, how I want that to happen...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Where are you getting this from? I'd be very surprised to see it selling that much after December. SSBM won't pass SSB until it hits the bargain bins, and probably not even then.

http://www.the-magicbox.com/topten3.htm#US

SSBM is number 30 selling game in March, with 51,000 sales. As I recall, it sold well over a hundred thousand in December, and the same thing will probably happen this year. SSBM is the Gamecube killer app, and that it will remain for the foreseeable future, as MK:DD is dropping at a very fast rate. SSBM hasn't even gone down to $20 yet, and when it does, it will sell over 100,000 again for several months. SSBM will eventually surpass the original, and it will likely hit 4 million copies sold, eventually. The only question is when.

Match Review: Final Fantasy X vs. Shenmue

Looks like we won't be seeing any blowouts in this division. I'm a little disappointed but not nearly enough to envision SSBM winning against it. We'll have to wait and see...

Match Preview: Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Metal Gear Solid 2

SSBM: The most popular game for the Gamecube and the console's best chance of winning the division. It won't be going down just yet.

MGS2: The poor cousin of MGS. I know nothing about it except for that, and MGS itself would have a run for its money here.

No game from Nintendo's big three franchises has lost in the first round yet and that winning streak will continue. MGS2 is the least popular PS2 game around here. However, once again, this division just doesn't do blowouts and this match won't even approach one unless I'm completely wrong about SSBM's popularity level, which is all too possible. My numbers here are on the lower level of my expectations...I wouldn't be surprised at a 65/35 victory but I'm predicting less.

My prediction: SSBM 62%, MGS2 38%

Oh, and completely off-topic, does anyone know if it is possible to get a monitor repaired? Or do I need to get a new one? The whole right quarter of my screen is flickering like crazy and it's spreading like an infection.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 29/30, Next Winner: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

It`d probably be better just to get a newer one.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace!

I had that problem. Just hit it as hard as you can.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Meh, well, I'm out of here until the site layout changes. This design is making my eyes water. Time to finish my nth replay of Xenosaga.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 29/30, Next Winner: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Creativename, I'm afraid you are mistaken on Melee. By Jan 1. it had already surpassed 2.8 million and continues to sell. It has, in fact, sold more than the original which you do have correctly as 2.74 mil. As I said, it may be only slightly so, but it has outsold the original. It also has more hype behind it so I'd be willing to bet it gets more rental time, and it's a much bigger party game than the first was simply because the first didn't come at a great time. Had it been released 6 months after Goldeneye It'd have been the biggest party game ever, but by the time it came out in the US the DC was only 6 months away and the PS had absolute domination. Between anticipation of my next console and the fact that the console I couldn't afford to buy had much better games I didn't play many N64 games and only played SSB a few times in the space of a few days, and never with more than one other human being. Melee still sells, though. And it will sell as long as the GC sells, unless for some odd reason the released another SSB on the GC, which I'd have to say is impossible.

But yeah, if it took 75% on MGS2... god help us all.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

I'm really glad the Melee match got pushed back to tomorrow. Now we'll be able to weather the storm of these 100 millions "What happened to the boards?!" topics during this much more boring 60% VC win, and hopefully be back on track for tonight.

My oh my... I sure am glad I make that copy of the last stats topic while the old format was up. Now we just have to hope that the option for "classic view" is going to come around before this one gets filled up. Then we'll all be able to pretend that days like today just never happened...

I mean seriously, the color scheme and all I don't mind too much, but what good is being done by making the postings themselves so incredibly narrow? Is there some new law where 80% of every screen has to be blank white space?

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the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

Ah ha, just switched over to the 1000x stylesheet. This is much much better.... still not quite as wide as the old days, but getting there. Oh, and also, I just realized that alot of this white space is being caused by FireFox, which I've got set to automatically kill all of the ads over on the right for me. So that's good to know. All in all, I don't mind the new look too much now.

Oh, and, um... go Melee!

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the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

Somehow I knew our encylopedia knew this. Where do you learn all these things?

Quick, what are the sales figures for Barney`s Hide and Seek?

*ahem*

Anyhoo, I can`t wait for tomorrow. With any luck, Melee will score at least 65% on MGS2 and we can call this division over.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

With any luck, Melee will score at least 65% on MGS2

agreed.

and we can call this division over.

disagreed.

mgs2 does not have the following of mgs1.
if it did it wouldn't have gotten a #15 seed.
i realize seeds aren't everything...but it landed 8 spots below gta3, another ps2 game. that has to mean something.

and besides...the votes this division are not following fanbase lines as closely as before.

65% would be great...but melee needs more than that to be a lock for the division championship.
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

While on the subject of sales, in case you didn`t have them Slowflake - for your preview - I have a list of sales of all the Zelda games in this contest:

The Legend of Zelda: 6.5 million
Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past: 4.5 million worldwide
Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time: 7.6 million worldwide -it might`ve gone up a little bit.
Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker: 2 million - Or roughly that, might be a little higher.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Just a quick question - what's SFF mean? I've seen in many times and am thoroughly confused by it. I can't seem to decipher it.
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Contest status: 30/31 through GTA:VC vs. KOTOR. Currently anticipating: Sonic 2 vs. Super Mario World

Same Fanbase Factor.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

I was just sneaking in to get a peek at the Xenosaga script FAQ and I got a pop-up ad...for Final Fantasy XI. Tell me it ain't so!

*cries*

...though the crying might just be my eyes watering from all the white on the screen.

Still waiting for:

1) The burning sensation in my eyes to stop
2) Tomorrow's match which should be very telling...it'll put into perspective all the other disappointments in this division
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 29/30, Next Winner: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Wind Waker is over 3 million worldwide, I think.
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Spring Contest 2004 (Best. Game. Ever.): My Score: 28/30 Today's Pick: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Yeah, I`m not totally sure on Wind Waker I do know it was at one point 1.45 million in NA so its bound to be higher than 2 million.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

Yeah, I'd tend to think it's more like 3 million. I can't bring myself to think it'd be dead even with Prime.

Looking at the SMB3/Metroid Prophet Challenge, it looks like my pick is entirely too low. However, I just can't think it'll do much better than 60%. Oh well, I'll pass off as a genius if I manage to snag this one.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 025/030 --- Matches: 25/30 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Vice City

Aahh!!! I hate this new color scheme. I think it was stupid for Ceej to change the boards without having a "classic look" already prepared.

Oh well, anyway to go back on topic, Vice City's performance today is perfectly normal and thus tells us absolutely nothing. Here is my breakdown on what SSBM's win score will tell us:

55% or under: SSBM is doomed next round.
55-60%: SSBM better watch it's back.
60-65%: Things are looking good for SSBM
65-70%: SSBM has this in the bag
Over 70%: SSBM may just have this division won
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Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf

WW vs. MP sales - WW has 1.45 mil in the US, MP has about 300k less. It's really the only region that matters so we can determine who the winner is for our purposes. Neither have sold more then 1 mil in Japan, and sales in Europe are always worse, so it's not even all that likely that WW has passed 3 mil yet. I'd give a half to three-quarters of a million advantage to WW worldwide. Also, since I seem to remember it being asked once but never answered, SotN sold about 477,000 in the US. The scary thing to me is, though, that RD sold 1.2 mil, GE sold 5.0 mil.

Ulti - There is almost no data on individual edutainment sales, Not even good ones like Carmen Sandiego and... Carmen Sandiego, but since it makes up an estimated 7.6% of total entertainment software sales I'd say it could have topped 100k, but I'm hoping it didn't. Whatever it did, it didn't set the world on fire with it's passionate love of the HnS.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

At this time I'd like to post a correction. Due to the Japanese title for SSBM (Which is Super Smash Bros. DX) I made an error with the sales data for SSBM (confusing it with Super Mario Bros. DX). It is, in fact, at 2.2 mil a full 600k short of the original. My apologies for this mistake which I just noticed. I have learned something quite interesting, however... MK:DD!! sold more than WW in both the US and Japan! WW actually has 700k sold in Japan, so I don't think Europe and Australia can cover the nearly 900K needed to put WW over 3 mil. Dare I say it.... MP only sold 80k in Japan. That's a huge difference, but then again Metroid never was well recieved in Japan.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Ah, I was wondering about that when I say that SSBM had sold less in both areas. And the Japanese sales for Wind Waker are quite a surprise to me, 700,000 only? That`s an amazement.

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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

55% or under: SSBM is doomed next round.
55-60%: SSBM better watch it's back.
60-65%: Things are looking good for SSBM
65-70%: SSBM has this in the bag
Over 70%: SSBM may just have this division won

Absolutely. I love simple answers like this.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 29/30, Next Winner: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

*sigh*
My most anticipated match of Round 1...could've been done 2 days ago. >.<

Anyway, if SSBM gets 60% on MGS2 I'm pretty sure Vice City will fall next round. SW:KotOR couldn't beat Metal Gear Solid 2...could it? I'm still debating whether the Star Wars game is that strong or GTA is that weak. But dang, if KotOR is that strong, think about what that says about Halo, and also about Starcraft.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

"SW:KotOR couldn't beat Metal Gear Solid 2...could it?"

Assuming GameFAQs users have taste? No, there's no way in hell.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

With this new Gamespot merger, how many Gamespot users are going to be visiting GameFAQs for the first time? Will this affect the poll totals? What about the actual voting? I filled out my bracket based on how I felt GameFAQs users would vote. What happens if 10 or 20 thousand Gamespot board users show up just in time for the second round? I doubt it'll really have much of an effect (I don't think most of Gamespot will even notice the merger), but it's fun to get all freaked out over. ;)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

I don't know if its really applicable with video game sales, but, Nintendo 64 sold a lot more than Gamecube, didn't it? While this won't change the numbers of people who own them, it does mean that a higher percent of gamecube customers bought their ssbm than the n64's did.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.

33 million N64`s to 15 million (roughly GCN`s), so yes the N64 doubled the GCN.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

"What happens if 10 or 20 thousand Gamespot board users show up just in time for the second round?"

Considering how absolutely desolate their borads have always been I find it unlikely they even have that many people interested in coming out way.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

...though the crying might just be my eyes watering from all the white on the screen.

Still waiting for:

1) The burning sensation in my eyes to stop

is that what's causing my eyes to burn? and here i thought it was allergies.......

and almost everytime i went online the past few days, the boards were down. =/

at least Vice City is winning right where i predicted it for a change. no real surprises there, thank goodness.

cyko's Point of View

Match 32

(2) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (15) Metal Gear Solid 2

it seems to me that this match isn't a matter of who will win, but instead, how much will SSBM win by. personally, i guess i'm not sure. SSBM is easily the biggest wild card of the tournament. and it's not because we have no characters' contest performance to compare it to; it's because we have TOO MANY characters' performance to compare it to. there were THIRTEEN (count 'em - 13) PLAYABLE CHARACTERS from SSBM in the contest last year. plus, a couple more were in the contest that are in SSBM as trophies. you could have actually made one of the Summer Contest Divisions into the SSBM Division. what's more, 11 of those 13 made it to at least the second round. and the only two that lost in the first round (Ness and Pikachu) lost to other SSBM characters!!

so, how the heck does this translate into game popularity? even if SSBM was an average game with all of those Nintendo All-Stars, it would still give almost any game in this division a run for it's money. however, it's not anaverage game. SSBM is a very addictive party game with a fun single-player mode. and have you been to the SSBM board on this site? it's been out for a couple years and it's still consistently one of the biggest boards on this site. that's hard to top.

with all that going for it, i can see SSBM easily breaking 60% and most likely touching 65%. 70% isn't out of the picture, but MGS does have a pretty big following (see MGS's beating of REvil), so SSBM would really appear unstoppable to me if it scores that high.

prediction - SSBM with 62-65%

my bracket - SSBM

personal favorite - SSBM - simply put, it was a masterpiece. MGS2 has great gameplay, but that story was waaayy out in left field. and bring back Snake!!

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Current Score: 27/30 (through FFX vs Shenmue) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12

has anyone else noticed that this match has had well over 24 hours...
...and it still hasn't gotten more votes than the original legend of zelda?

...yeah...my super metroid pick is looking better all the time...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.

I dont really se SSBM surpassing 70% i'm actually worried if it'll win at all.
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shut up gamespot

Why would you be worried? I`m predicting 61% of the vote by the way.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

Guys, I think we can finally say Wind Waker won the division... O_o I expect SSBM to get the day vote but man, MGS2 put up a crazy fight...
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

I guess I should feel better since I picked Wind Waker to win the Division.

But I was expecting SSBM to do a little better than this. I guess we'll have to wait for a couple of hours and see what happens.
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Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!

53% right now.
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NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End
Time passes, people move. Like a river's flow, it never ends.

SSBM with 53.03% right now. Can't say I'm overly surprised. People around here seemed to be grossly underestimating MGS2. I grossly overestimated Final Fantasy X though.

Chichiri:
Creativename, I'm afraid you are mistaken on Melee. By Jan 1. it had already surpassed 2.8 million and continues to sell. It has, in fact, sold more than the original
...
It is, in fact, at 2.2 mil

:P

I figured there was no way it sold 600K in the past few months...games just don't sell that much that long after release. It's been out for a while. It'll get a boost this Christmas and when it hits the bargain bin, and should be higher than 2.2 by now, but it is still unlikely to pass the original.

FastFalcon:
don't know if its really applicable with video game sales, but, Nintendo 64 sold a lot more than Gamecube, didn't it? While this won't change the numbers of people who own them, it does mean that a higher percent of gamecube customers bought their ssbm than the n64's did.

I was going to say something about this regarding memorability actually. The GameCube definitely relies more on SSBM than the N64 did on SSB. So while SSB sold more, SSBM is more important to Nintendo. That might help its memorability with Nintendo fans.

Yesmar:
55% or under: SSBM is doomed next round.
55-60%: SSBM better watch it's back.
60-65%: Things are looking good for SSBM
65-70%: SSBM has this in the bag
Over 70%: SSBM may just have this division won

I disagree with this; I'd go so far as to reduce those numbers by 7%-10%. SSBM won't have any trouble with Vice City. I have little doubt that MGS2 >> Vice City, despite getting less same system nominations. SSBM might get 60+% there.

And if it had got 70%, the division was a guarantee. Nothing would've touched it. Like I said before, 75%, and this contest was a foregone conclusion.

Remember that the original MGS will probably perform well against Final Fantasy VII, getting at least 30% I'd say, perhaps as high as 40%...and maybe even more than that. The original MGS is a juggernaut, that has the unfortunate situation of being in the same division as the Big Two.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com

Oh, and thanks to Ngamer for the tip about changing the site width. I would definitely not have seen that without you mentioning it. It's a big help. The colors are still atrocious, but at least they don't give me a headache anymore.

Yet another bad thing about this layout is that I find navigation more difficult. The buttons for my profile (which I go to often to see my posted messages), next page, last page, etc. actually take a second or two for me to find because they're smaller. So ****ing annoying.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com

Ewww... god point about the day vote, SSBM is at 54% right now.

If it can continue rising, VC/SSBM will be ugly, and I seriously doubt either can beat FF10.

Winner of this division: Wind Waker... and it failed to meet expectations too!
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 025/030 --- Matches: 25/30 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Vice City

Yes! An all-Zelda Final Four is up in the air once more! :D


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Welcome to SpC2k4, where you suck if you presume someone else's opinions.- Tai.

Now that you're talking about that, it reminds me of something... there's a LOT of writing that's going to be done by me today in this topic.

- SMB3/Metroid preview
- Round 1 winners and losers
- Round 2 overview

I wonder if my keyboard will be able to support typing of this magnitude.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM

I am not worried in the least. Metal Gear Solid 2 was the best game on the PS2 for quite a long time. Next up is another 'best' PS2 game, then another 'best' PS2 game. I still have the utmost faith in SSBM. In my eyes, this match proves how strong both games are. MGS2 for doing this well, and SSBM for being able to hold it off.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #33 - (1) SUPER MARIO BROS. 3 vs. (8) METROID ***

Sales

Um, you're kidding right?

- Advantage SMB3.

Franchises

Mario and Samus are dead even in character battles. Not good for determining the more popular series.

But IIRC, there was a PotD a long time ago that asked for the voters' favorite Nintendo series. Mario finished a solid second, behind Zelda, while Metroid was stuck in fourth... behind Pokémon. Beware, for this was in the middle of the Pokémon fad and before Prime/Fusion... but still, Mario is the most legendary figure in gaming, and I'm giving it the category just for that.

- Advantage SMB3.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: SMB3
Number of reviews: SMB3
Average review score: SMB3
Board activity: SMB3

Except for the average review score, SMB3 doesn't win by much anywhere. But said score is where it truly shines: if I'm correct, it got the second highest in the tournament, behind NiGHTS. Not that it saved NiGHTS...

- Advantage SMB3

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 102

POINT VALUE
4. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 2054
26. Metroid - 94

All 94 people who had Metroid getting past round 1 have it going down to SMB3. This shows you how obvious the outcome is.

- Advantage SMB3

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

SMB3 is its series' favorite.

Metroid may be its series' weak link.

Easy.

- Advantage SMB3

Intangibles

This can go three ways, really.

1. Metroid gets a lot of franchise vote, allowing this match to be much closer than it should.

2. SFF sucks Metroid dry, well, in Metroid fashion.

3. Nothing happens.

I'm personally thinking 1 will happen... we've seen a lot of it this last week, with Soul Calibur, FFTA and now MGS2. But really, it could go either way.

- TIE.

Conclusion: Metroid has no chance. Need I say more? Bring on Sonic/Mario already!
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM

tag

Well, the first round is pretty much over now, and I'm feeling more confident about my Vice City beating SSBM prediction right now. Just looking through the second round draw at the moment, I should get the first five right and I think that Mario World should overcome Sonic 2, but then it's Zelda LttP vs. Super Metroid. Does SM stand any chance at all in this match?
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Jon Thomson - 25/31 - today: SSBM - tomorrow: Mario 3

No.

And don't be overconfident about VC beating SSBM... it didn't do very well in its match either.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 026/031 --- Matches: 26/31 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: SSBM

Just a suggestion, Slowflake: now that you are previewing Round 2 matches, maybe you could add a previous matches category in your comparisons?
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Sign my petition!
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679