We're going through about a topic a week at this point. Four parts is a stats topic record for a single contest. And this one is only half over. My how we've grown...

Stats websites:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html
Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html

Stats topics:

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html
Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)
2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.
Spring 2004 Pre-Season:
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason2.htm
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason3.htm
Spring 2004 Contest:
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13794617 (Until purge)

Oracle Standings:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/oracle.html

Thanks for the links.
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(GameFAQs) Only site where FF7 could be winner in both a "Worst. Game. Ever." and "Best. Game. Ever." contest. - Dekukid

Can't wait to see how much these topics accelerate once we get the leaderboard stats.
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Si Hoc Legere Potes Nimium Eruditionis Habes

The part I liked best was when you made the All Time Records Chart.
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Never argue with a fool, people might not know the difference.

Any ideas on when to expect the leaderboard stats?

Hehe, good to see a new topic ready. =)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace!

I have a feeling leaderboard & stats won't be coming until summer contest.
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Contest Score: 29-0
Next Pick : FFX

If they don't show up after the first round, I'm inclined to agree we won't be getting any stats.
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Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it!

I'll wait until a few matches into the second round to be pessimistic about *ever* getting stats...
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 27/28, Next Winner: Final Fantasy Tactics Advance

Hopefully we`ll get them a few matches into the second round...
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace!

The part I liked best was when you made the All Time Records Chart

Just for your information I made those charts
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My Score 26/29 FFX vs. Shenmue

yeah, great list Charmander

There will have to be a leader board eventually I'd think. Remember CJayC has been busy with the new site design. I think it'll be out in the next week.

To get back on the topic of stats, at least a little bit, I'm surprised at how few people have a feel for how the polls will go. People have been dissapointed in KH, WW, MP, and FFX's performances. Over in the prophet challenge people predicted FFX would win by and average of 50,000+ votes, which projects to well over 80%, despite the fact that not one game in this division has gotten close to 80%. Lots of people are predicting 20,000-30,000+ vote victories for GTA:VC and SSBM. The games in division 128 just are not that strong. To think SSBM will blow out a fairly successful MGS2, is ridiculous
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...........................

The games in division 128 just are not that strong.

Or it could be a combination of things, from the loss of the casual vote to the idea that rather than the weaklings of the division being weak, it could be that the games within are closer together than the 8 and 16 bit divisions. I'm sure that people in the last topic discussed the advantage of nostalgia in the early divisions.
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Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)
www.rpgdl.com

A bit off-topic, but Ngamer64, you have made an error with the guru standings. Ncr picked Duck Hunt to win, and we currently have a ton of people tied for first place.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Bah, I picked DK there and Duck Hunt in my bracket. Seems fair enough to me, no? ^-^
I needed an upset to have a better bracket anyway. I went with the safe on the real contest. (Which is the guru contest since I of course cannot participate in the spring contest being canadian)
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The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr...
Go Flames Go Avs! Current Status: 3-2 vs Detroit, 2-3 vs San Jose

Speaking of which, would I still be dead last had I entered?

I can't wait for the second round. Especially now that the favorites will face decent competition (except LoZ... now we know what's CJayC's favorite game). I'm especially looking forward to CT/SMRPG. If CT continues to perform like it did against SoM, SMRPG could come within 10000 votes...

In other news, I'm moving the day after the finals. Meaning I may end up missing the last few days, as well as parts of the preparatives for the Summer Contest. I hope this doesn't happen...
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 024/029 --- Matches: 24/29 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FF10

The point of that contest was to submit your actual bracket.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

If CT continues to perform like it did against SoM, SMRPG could come within 10000 votes...

I'm betting SoM would beat SMRPG with 55-60%.
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The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr...
Go Flames Go Avs! Current Status: 3-2 vs Detroit, 2-3 vs San Jose

What about Metroid Prime? If it starts being copied left and right, I could see it sticking out in this generation.

And good point about SSBM maybe losing feathers after SSB3... the first SSB has pretty much been forgotten.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 024/029 --- Matches: 24/29 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FF10

I'm betting SoM would beat SMRPG with 55-60%.

How I wish you were right. SMRPG damn near tarnished Mario for me forever.

However, it did too well against SF2 for that. I think my Oracle pick is in the high 50s for CT.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 024/029 --- Matches: 24/29 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FF10

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Excuse the two post deletions...all I can say is that I'm anal and keep thinking up more stuff.

My response to something Chichiri said:

Most of the games still don't strike me as being part of the "immortals". Mario 3 will never be forgotten, but who will think abuot the likes of KoTOR come 10 years from now? KoTOR is big now, but like all other Star Wars games it'll be mostly forgotten some day. Something that you hear about on occasion and go "oh yeah, that was awesome!", and then not think about again for a few more years.

KOTOR is one of the classics for the PC, IMO, right up there with Bioware's other classics.

KOTOR isn't much like the other Star Wars games. It's not a game that relies on the Star Wars name to be successful (hell, I think it would have done better without it considering the Star Wars angst lately due to Lucas messing everything up). It stands on its own as a superb game that just happens to be set in the Star Wars universe. I really don't think it will be forgotten but I guess only time will tell.

Melee, Halo (maybe), VC, MGS2 (which isn't even being treated like a potential legend), Starcraft, and Half-Life have potential.

Melee might be memorable. It depends on whether or not Nintendo makes a superior sequel. Seems to me that the original has been mostly forgotten but that might be because I'm not a big Nintendo gamer.

Halo is just another game that will be forgotten when its sequel (or something better) comes along, even moreso than SSB:M since it didn't do much aside from being the only good game on the Xbox for a while. If any game in the GTA series will be remembered years from now, it'll be GTA3, not Vice City. I don't know enough about the Metal Gear series to comment on MGS2 so I'll keep my mouth shut on that one.

Starcraft and Half-Life I can see as being memorable. Starcraft didn't do anything particularly revolutionary, IMO. It added enough new in to not be a Warcraft clone, certainly, but its real strength was its utter perfection in doing what other games had done worse. I'm not sure if even Starcraft 2 could replace it unless it managed an equal level of perfection (which is not to be had in the RTS genre even to this day). As for Half-Life, Half-Life 2 might be superior and even revolutionary in its own right but Half-Life in and of itself is too revolutionary to ever be forgotten.

FFX got its place by being the only FF in this generation. It's not a 6 or 7, and it didn't start it all like the original. It's just another FF and by the time we hit 15 it will be mostly forgotten while 6 and 7 will still be the shining examples of the series.

Much as I personally consider FFX to be the best in the series, I've got to agree with you here. FFVI and FFVII will likely always be considered the pinnacle of the series unless Square does something uber awesome and unexpected. FFXII doesn't look like it's going to deliver on that but maybe it's too early to tell. FFX just didn't turn enough heads.

Same is to be said about WW as it doesn't stand out like LttP and OoT, though the series is a bit shorter. WW, however, has enough originality for it to stick out better in its series than 10 does with the FF game, no matter how long the series is.

Meh, I dunno about that. I think both games will be forgotten in short order as soon as the next one comes out, though with Wind Waker it might be less so because it supposedly has a sequel coming up soon. Despite my neutrality toward the Zelda series I hope it's better than X-2. Please, Nintendo. For the sake of the kittens!
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 28/29, Next Winner: Final Fantasy X

Oops, sorry charmander6000, thanks for those charts. Probably the highlight of the last topic.
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Never argue with a fool, people might not know the difference.

SSB, while great fun was pretty forgettable
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AC NAME:Link
TOWN:Hyrule

I forget who said it first, but I agree with the notion of the 128 Division not having immortals and not being as fun.

For me, its all about the "Greatest Generation" as I call it in my commentaries, and thats the 16 Division. I never loved gaming more than those years of SNES and SF2 and MK Arcade...those few years for me will likely never be topped. But hey, thats just me.
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SCK24: 28/32 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

Ah, that's a good catch. I can see how I would have missed it... Ncr's wording is pretty confusing.

From: EvilNcr | Posted: 4/3/2004 6:01:28 AM | Message Detail
Ah.. I forgot to post it?

http://www.bracketmaker.com/predict.cfm?parent=138498&user=28113

Note a few changes. I put back Duck Hunt instead of Donkey Kong... and I think that's all. To prove I did that a while ago... look at the "Last updated" section.

I've made the edit in the brackets, should be reflected the next time I post the complete standings (probably at the end of the first round here). So we now have no perfects, and 5 tied for first place, with me and a couple others just behind. Cool.

Just finished saving a copy of the last stats topic. That, along with one and two, can now be found in the Archives.

http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

Though as I said in the last topic, if creative would be kind enough to host them on sc2k4 it would be more than appreciated. I'm quickly running out of space on my account once again.

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the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
4) 72.62% - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
5) 71.26% - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
6) 69.66% - Super Mario 64 over Nights *
7) 66.58% - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
8) 64.60% - Super Mario Bros. 3 over Metal Gear *
9) 62.94% - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
10) 61.62% - Goldeneye 007 over Panzer Dragoon Saga *

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
4) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
5) 69753 - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
6) 61229 - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
7) 59648 - Sonic 2 over Shining Force
8) 56834 - Super Mario 64 over Nights *
9) 56376 - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
10) 53087 - Chrono Trigger over Secret of Mana

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 0.34% - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur #
4) 6.36% - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 12.32% - Metroid Prime over Half-Life #
6) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
7) 14.08% - Doom over Earthbound
8) 15.90% - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
9) 22.04% - Contra over Phantasy Star
10) 32.72% - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 373 - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur #
4) 4883 - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 9066 - Metroid Prime over Half-Life #
6) 11114 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
7) 12076 - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
8) 12164 - Doom over Earthbound
9) 20080 - Contra over Phantasy Star
10) 22159 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 112889 - Halo vs. Starcraft
2) 107150 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2
3) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall
4) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure
5) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons
6) 97126 - Sonic 2 vs. Shining Force
7) 97031 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt
8) 96704 - Super Mario RPG vs. Steet Fighter 2
9) 96186 - Final Fantasy 3/6 vs. Mortal Kombat
10) 96053 - Legend of Zelda: OOT vs. Fallout 2

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 65875 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #
2) 69876 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
3) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man *
4) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life #
5) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear *
6) 74688 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil *
7) 75583 - Goldeneye 007 vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga *
8) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia #
9) 76743 - Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: SotN *
10) 77424 - Final Fantasy X xs. Shenmue #

Top 10 Least Popular Polls without an Extra PotD (by vote totals)

1) 65875 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem #
2) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life #
3) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia #
4) 77424 - Final Fantasy X xs. Shenmue #
5) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga
6) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4
7) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom
8) 86418 - Earthbound vs. Doom
9) 90152 - Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts #
10) 90307 - Chrono Trigger vs. Secret of Mana

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Current Score: 27/30 (through FFX vs Shenmue) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda
2) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7
3) 86938 - Final Fantasy
4) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP
5) 82903 - Legend of Zelda: OOT
6) 79257 - Super Mario World
7) 78387 - Sonic 2
8) 71697 - Chrono Trigger
9) 70520 - Super Metroid
10) 70294 - Final Fantasy 3/6

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure
2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes
3) 12256 - Pitfall
4) 12375 - Nights *
5) 13150 - Fallout 2
6) 13197 - Metal Gear *
7) 14144 - Phantasy Star 4
8) 14504 - Panzer Dragoon Saga *
9) 15401 - Suikoden 2
10) 18028 - The Simpsons

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 56258 - Halo
2) 48444 - Duck Hunt
3) 44532 - Soul Calibur #
4) 42314 - Street Fighter 2
5) 37127 - Earthbound
6) 35930 - Perfect Dark
7) 35513 - Phantasy Star
8) 32288 - Half-Life #
9) 29381 - Pokemon G/S/C
10) 27130 - River City Ransom

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 40495 - Xenogears *
2) 40813 - Castlevania: SotN *
3) 41354 - Metroid Prime #
4) 43716 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance #
5) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts #
6) 48587 - Donkey Kong
7) 49291 - Doom
8) 49837 - Metroid *
9) 52745 - Metal Gear Solid *
10) 54390 - Super Mario RPG

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners without an Extra PotD (by votes)

1) 41354 - Metroid Prime #
2) 43716 - Final Fantasy Tactics Advance #
3) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts #
4) 48587 - Donkey Kong
5) 49291 - Doom
6) 54390 - Super Mario RPG
7) 55593 - Contra
8) 56544 - Legend of Zelda: WW #
9) 56631 - Starcraft
10) 57663 - Final Fantasy X #

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) still, no data yet..... in two more matches!!!!!........... maybe..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) no data yet...... hopefully soon......... please..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

* = shared PotD with GameRiot or ESPN or FFXI poll

# = matches after the home-page layout change


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Current Score: 27/30 (through FFX vs Shenmue) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12

Heh, I`m loving this. Vice City is winning, but vastly underperforming.

It`s basically down to Wind Waker, FFX, and Melee by this point folks.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Can I post my reseeded bracket again?

Division 8
(1) The Legend of Zelda
(16) Adventure
(8) Contra
(9) Pac Man
(5) Tetris
(12) Metal Gear
(4) Metroid
(13) Phantasy Star
(6) Donkey Kong
(11) Pong
(3) Final Fantasy
(14) River City Ransom
(7) Duck Hunt
(10) Galaga
(2) Super Mario Brothers 3
(15) Pitfall!

Division 16
(1) Chrono Trigger
(16) Gunstar Heroes
(8) Street Fighter 2
(9) Mortal Kombat
(5) Super Metroid
(12) Earthbound
(4) Super Mario World
(13) Phantasy Star IV
(6) Sonic the Hedgehog 2
(11) Doom
(3) Final Fantasy 6
(14) The Simpsons
(7) Super Mario RPG
(10) Secret of Mana
(2) The Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past
(15) Shining Force

Division 32-64
(1) Final Fantasy 7
(16) Panzer Dragoon Saga
(8) Perfect Dark
(9) Xenogears
(5) Final Fantasy Tactics
(12) Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal
(4) Metal Gear Solid
(13) Fallout 2
(6) Goldeneye
(11) Suikoden II
(3) Super Mario 64
(14) Dance Dance Revolution
(7) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
(10) Resident Evil
(2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
(15) NiGHTS into dreams...

Division 128
(1) Super Smash Brothers: Melee
(16) Shenume
(8) Kingdom Hearts
(9) Halo: Combat Evolved
(5) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
(12) Half-Life
(4) Metroid Prime
(13) Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
(6) Starcraft
(11) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
(3) Final Fantasy X
(14) Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
(7) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
(10) Soul Calibur
(2) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
(15) Fire Emblem

I made some minor changes. I switched Donkey Kong and Duck Hunt because, well, Donkey Kong still won. I also switched FFX and Wind Waker because I was not impressed by FFX at all yesterday. I also put FFTA above Skies, and was briefly considering putting it above KOTOR.

Thoughts?
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

I switched Donkey Kong and Duck Hunt because, well, Donkey Kong still won.

Imho, Donkey Kong only won because of bracket-voters. Now, I know they're not a heavy factor, but in a match this close, every vote counts - with its higher seed, he became the favorite (as is quite clear by the PotD where you were asked which match you failed - and Duck Hunt/Donkey Kong wasn't one of the option). If for example, Donkey Kong was a two-to-one favorite, only about one thousand bracket voters (666 for Donkey Kong and 333 for Duck Hunt instead of 500-500) would be enough to turn the tide.

Now, that doesn't mean Donkey Kong isn't stronger... But something as trivial as a seed inversion may be enough to weaken the favorite, and maybe change the result.
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Sign my petition!
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679

Can't say I'm surprised by VC's poor showing... no VC fanboy so far could make a decent point for it.

Vercetti's not representative of the game! Look at Gordon!

Gordon's the exception, not the rule. Save for that, the results followed the Summer Contest logic to an exceptional degree. Even Chrono Trigger... and this might sink those who picked it to win its division, since it looks more and more like CT does NOT > Crono as suggested.

Vice City sold more than anything but the Sims in the last few years, you said so yourself!

So? Half-Life sold almost as much, and look what happened to it. SotN, a game that didn't sell that much, could give Goldeneye, a BIG seller in its era, a good run for its money, maybe even win. And let's not even get started on LoZ/Tetris.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 024/029 --- Matches: 24/29 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FF10

Well, I switched the two because it makes enough sense. Plus I was told the same thing by someone in the previous topic.

And I`m repeating what I said in another topic about SSBM vs MGS2. If SSBM scores:

-60%, then FFX has a chance to beat it
-65%, then Wind Waker has a chance to beat it
-70%, the division is done and over with

And for the record, I have been singing the praises of SSBM since day one. Don`t accuse me of fanboyism if it wins the division; frankly, even if it`s not in your bracket, it`s a good representative for the modern era.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

gunmage has the GTA:VC/KOTOR spread at 25. it looks like it will end up somewhere around there. given the uncanny accuracy of gunmage's spreads, i'm not sure you can say a game is underperforming anymore, so long as it is winning by a margin right about at the spread.

Allow me to rephrase that... VC's showing is average. Not bad, but not good either. No freaking way it's beating SSBM if it does anything decent tomorrow.

(Finally, a match that makes sense.)
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 025/030 --- Matches: 25/30 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FF10

Well here we go kiddies :) Time for...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Thats right, the infamous yet humorous commentary is back, to go with all the rest of us here in this, the greatest of threads, the most worthy of postings on this fanboy dominated board.

And so it continues, with the Nintendo Battle Cry to close out the 1st round of the "Modern Era" Division.

Match XXXII

(2)Super Smash Brothers Melee vs (15)Metal Gear Solid 2

Steve's Prediction: SSBM by 69.9%
Steve's Bracket: SSBM
Newbie's Pick: Nintendo
Upset Chances: Not gonna happen...

Comments: Here we got the final match of Round 1, a matchup between Solid Snake and all things Nintendo.

The Snakester is upset...his beloved Substance seems to lack it here, as it is a #15 seed, below Shenpoo of all things! His finger on the trigger, he has the Brothers Melee in his sights...and he plans to take them out, to break brackets and crush the dreams of the Nintendites.

However, his aim is more than a little off...for this is SSBM, the ultimate dark horse in this tourney of all the divisions. Worshipped by Nintendites of all ages, races, genders, creeds, and genre fanbases...this game waves the flag of Nintendo higher and prouder than any other. For it is all things Nintendo...and every character stands in salute...

Mario, Luigi, Yoshi, Toad, Princess, Fox, Samus, Link, Ness, Kirby, DK and many more have cast aside their intracompany squabbles and united here in a common goal...tourney victory. And their first target is the Snake...

Probable Results: The Brothers Melee will stomp all over the Snake, winning by a 70-30 margin and beginning their quest to prove that violent mature games are not always the rage, and that the Spirit of Nintendo shall live on forever...or something...

Steve's Moments: SSBM: For quick happy fun, it just dont get any better than this...not even MK is as pure fun... MGS2: Great game but its outclassed here...

SCK24: 28/32 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years

You`re picking SSBM to win by the score of 85-15?

Wow.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Smitelf - KoTOR may be able to stand on it's own without the SW name, but it does have the Star Wars name. That brings a lot of people to the table who won't remmeber it in the years to come. And SW has always had some excellent games made for it. Where the hell is Tie Fighter? That was simply one of the best games of its day, nothing in the "flight sim" genre could touch it, but it's not here. Without Shadows of the Empire and Rouge Squadron I think the N64 would have been in even deeper **** than it was. And there are so many more, as well. They are awesome games, these Star Wars ones, but given their licensed product nature they are more fleeting.

Halo I said maybe. I have a feeling MS will push back Halo 2 until they announce their next system, at which point Halo 2 will be announced as a launch title. I assume they won't be able to get the licence from Nvidia to emulate the gpu, especially since they went to Nvidia's primary competition, and won't be capable of playing Xbox games on their next system. They need somethign to keep them alive in a world where PS3 will play PS1 and PS2 games and in all likelihood Nintendo's next system will also play GC games. If I'm right, then there is only going to be one Halo in this generation, and that Halo will probably be remembered.

As a long time fan of the original SSB, I can say it isn't completly forgotten. I just didn't get as much out of melee myself. But Melee is huge, and I don't think we'll see another until we see another Nintendo system. Melee has already had enough time to become imprinted on people's minds and has met with a wider audience than the first, perhaps only slightly so, but nevertheless. We'll have to see on that one, I guess.

Without spoiling anything I can say for certain there is a reason why MGS2 isn't as big as the first. I can't tell you that reason without spoiling anything, but there is a reason. The fact still remains, however, that the creator is a mad genius of sorts. We really do only get one Metal Gear a generation now, and that's got to tell you how much effort is put into making the game the best gaming experience it can be. If anyone else was doing it (other than Microsoft) we'd already have MGS3 and we'd be seeing 4 really soon. IIRC development of the first started in like '94, so 3 games in 10 years. Yeah, they put that much into it. Remember, we got 4 Onimushas on the PS2 and 3 REs on the PS1. Some crank out the games until the market won't tkae them anymore, some craft games that the market would die for.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Follow up from my last post: I think if this division were played out 10 years from now we'd have a better chance of seeign Ico, Rez, and Jet Set Radio then some of the stuff we do have. And wouldn't it be better? :) Funny, too, that the two lowest seeded games in the division are the two I find least likey to lose ground should we do it again, even a decade from now. Shenmue, as well, probably won't go anywhere. Now, I'm not a big fan of shenmue myself, and I know most of you aren't either, but what a game! I don't care for how it plays but it is something special. I guess that's why this division disapoints me, it has a lot of good solid games but it lacks special games. Anyone who played SMB3 when it was new absolutely knew they were playing something amazing. Same for so many other games pre-128. These games are good, they just aren't all great, and really should be replaced by the 3 I mentioned. Oh, and I think VC is way, way better than 3. It may turn out that neither are memorable, but if one has to be I hope it's VC (for the music alone!).

On SSBM - I'm saying 65% easy, though 70% isn't out of the question. Remember, Raiden got the shaft, so this could be closer than Half-Life. But, I'm banking on the all tings Nintendo aspect of Melee. If Link is good, and Mario is good, and Samus is good... isn't all three in one game better? :)
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

"LttP vs. OoT would be a CIVIL WAR, no less. Some LttP fans despise OoT."

So should this happen, what side are you on? Are you with my in backing the better game, LttP, orr are you a lamer? :)
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

That quote was from slow, btw.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow

Slowflake:
an all-Zelda Final 4 would seriously screw over analysis for next year. I mean, it's pretty easy to figure SFF striking hard in both semifinals, in favor of LttP and OoT.

We've never seen SFF hurt an opponent who was significant, I don't see it starting now.

LttP could never win against OoT in an indirect comparison, but in a direct encounter, I could see LttP getting some SFF votes

And we've definitely never seen SFF make a match closer than it would be otherwise.

Ulti:
I have realized the true reason why our vote totals are so low. No one gives a flying **** about half of these games

I hope you were just being facetious, because that is definitely not true. The obvious reason is the layout change; there's no denying this. Interesting that the effect appears to be almost the same as with the extra poll on top.

I made some minor changes. I switched Donkey Kong and Duck Hunt because, well, Donkey Kong still won

There is strong reason to believe Donkey Kong only won because of cheaters/vote stuffers, and while vote stuffers (with that I mean seeking outside fans) can be considered legitimate, they are not necessarily repeatable. Seeding is about future expectations, not past results. I'd have to say that Duck Hunt would deserve to be seeded higher. Not like it matters in the least, as they are still about the same, and neither is probably all that strong.

70%, the division is done and over with

I'd say if it can get 70% against MGS2, then it'll give Final Fantasy VII/Ocarina of Time a run. 70% against MGS2 would be ridiculous.

*MGS 2 SPOILERS* (sort of)

Using the character contest as a proxy, say that Raiden suffered from SFF and thus performed half as good as otherwise. An opponent who was the average of Snake and SFF-adjusted Raiden would be expected to get 29.26% against Cloud. Considering that I think this method actually underrates MGS2, I highly doubt SSBM can get anything even close to 70% here.

If you equake Snake with MGS and the quantity arrived at above to MGS2, you would expect MGS to beat MGS2 with 65.76% of the vote, which I don't think is what would happen in absence of SFF.

If SSBM get 75%, this contest is pretty much done. I do not expect anything like that, because I cannot imagine SSBM winning this contest.

END SPOILERS

Chichiri:
Melee has already had enough time to become imprinted on people's minds and has met with a wider audience than the first, perhaps only slightly so, but nevertheles

Super Smash Bros. sales - 2.74 million units
SSBM sales - 2.2 million units (this might increase a little, but no more than a couple hundred thousand given how long the game has been out)

The original was more successful, and definitely more revolutionary/breakthrough (it's combining of different characters idea was brilliant, and bound to succeed if executed properly--Ehrgeiz was not, of course). I would've said the original will be more remembered for sure, until I saw people saying otherwise. Most likely people will remember them together though, as they're basically the same game.

I guess that's why this division disapoints me, it has a lot of good solid games but it lacks special games.

Exactly the point I made about this era a while ago. Video games are more successful now than ever, however there is a lack of outlier titles in terms of sales/memorability. Perhaps a sign of a maturing industry, or perhaps just a fluke (since true all-time classic are rare, the absence of a couple can really stand out).
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com

creativename:

Just one quibble - I'm pretty sure that in the end, Melee will outsell the original Smash Brothers. Like Halo, Melee has legs and is still one of the best selling titles for the Gamecube. It's consistently selling 50,000 copies a month.

*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #32 - (2) SUPER SMASH BROS. MELEE vs. (15) METAL GEAR SOLID 2 ***

Sales

SSBM outsold MGS2 ever so slightly in America, 2.2 million to 2 million. In Japan, SSBM sold 1.2 million, and the number for MGS2 is unknown (though it is under 1 million).

- Advantage SSBM.

Franchises

Metal Gear vs. SSB? That's a good one. However, if you put the franchise power of SSBM's various characters, you get a monster that's difficult to stop in that area.

- Advantage SSBM.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: SSBM
Number of reviews: SSBM
Average review score: SSBM
Board activity: SSBM

In the first two categories, SSBM doesn't win by much, but it wins anyway. But the other two are where SSBM really shines... other than two or three 8s and the mandatory 4... ONLY 9s AND 10s. Wow. And comparing the SSBM board to the MGS2 board is like comparing New York City to the entirety of Antarctica.

- Advantage SSBM.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 96
Metal Gear Solid 2 - 6

POINT VALUE
10. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 608
46. Metal Gear Solid 2 - 12

Self-explanatory. MGS2 is going nowhere despite being able to defeat a lot of games in the division, people say.

- Advantage SSBM.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

Raiden did horrible last year, even though a lot of us were expecting a Ms. Pac-Man-sized blowout. But Snake did ok... question is, which of the two made the lasting impression of MGS2? SSBM is a true wildcard. We don't know how much of its potential it can tap into. It could win the entire tournament, it could lose tomorrow or anything in between.

- UNAVAILABLE.

Intangibles

I just talked about SSBM's tremendous potential... it could very well outdo that of any game in the tournament. And that's all that needs to be said.

Plus, MGS2 has Raiden. Never good.

- Advantage SSBM.

Conclusion: SSBM is the only game left that could stop WW from winning the division, since its other main rivals all failed to meet expectations (so did WW, but to a much lesser extent). What percentage it needs to do so is still argued... guess we'll see tomorrow.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 025/030 --- Matches: 25/30 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Vice City

While 70% against MGS2 would be rediculous, you must remember that SSBM is one of the few games where I will assert blind fanboyism. Excuse me if I sound a bit silly when I talk about it.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf

Forgot to respond to this from the other topic. Ulti:
I mean, look at Starcraft/Halo. It happened on a Monday night, yet it was our most popular poll of the contest

Monday's are historically the highest vote total days, with all the other weekdays next, then the weekend.

But wasn't that poll on a Tuesday?

FFantasyFX:
Melee has legs and is still one of the best selling titles for the Gamecube. It's consistently selling 50,000 copies a month.

Where are you getting this from? I'd be very surprised to see it selling that much after December. SSBM won't pass SSB until it hits the bargain bins, and probably not even then.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com

Monday's are historically the highest vote total days

I don't know about 2003, but in 2002 it's been suggested that it happened because every Cloud match fell on a Monday.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 025/030 --- Matches: 25/30 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Vice City

I can`t wait until tomorrow. I`m really hoping SSBM crushes MGS2.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf