 GameSpot GameBoy Advance GameCube PC PlayStation2 Xbox Game Rankings Game Boy Advance GameCube PC PlayStation 2 Xbox |
| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest - Part 3 |
| Team Rocket Elite (33): Board List | Topic List | Log Out | Help |
| This Topic has been marked closed. No additional messages may be posted. |
| First Page | Previous Page | Page 9 of 10 | Last Page |
| From: cyko | Posted: 5/1/2004 4:01:23 PM | Message Detail |
Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage) 1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure 2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes 3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall 4) 72.62% - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2 5) 71.26% - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2 6) 69.66% - Super Mario 64 over Nights * 7) 66.58% - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4 8) 64.60% - Super Mario Bros. 3 over Metal Gear * 9) 62.94% - Super Mario World over The Simpsons 10) 61.62% - Goldeneye 007 over Panzer Dragoon Saga * Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes) 1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure 2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes 3) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2 4) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall 5) 69753 - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2 6) 61229 - Super Mario World over The Simpsons 7) 59648 - Sonic 2 over Shining Force 8) 56834 - Super Mario 64 over Nights * 9) 56376 - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4 10) 53087 - Chrono Trigger over Secret of Mana Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage) 1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt 2) 0.34% - Starcraft over Halo 3) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur 4) 6.36% - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark * 5) 12.32% - Metroid Prime over Half-Life 6) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2 7) 14.08% - Doom over Earthbound 8) 15.90% - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C * 9) 22.04% - Contra over Phantasy Star 10) 36.02% - Pong over River City Ransom Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes) 1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt 2) 373 - Starcraft over Halo 3) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur 4) 4883 - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark * 5) 9066 - Metroid Prime over Half-Life 6) 11114 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C * 7) 12076 - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2 8) 12164 - Doom over Earthbound 9) 20080 - Contra over Phantasy Star 10) 26931 - Metroid over Pac-Man * Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals) 1) 112889 - Halo vs. Starcraft 2) 107150 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2 3) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall 4) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure 5) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons 6) 97126 - Sonic 2 vs. Shining Force 7) 97031 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt 8) 96704 - Super Mario RPG vs. Steet Fighter 2 9) 96186 - Final Fantasy 3/6 vs. Mortal Kombat 10) 96053 - Legend of Zelda: OOT vs. Fallout 2 Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals) 1) 69876 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C * 2) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man * 3) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life 4) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear * 5) 74688 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil * 6) 75583 - Goldeneye 007 vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga * 7) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia 8) 76743 - Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: SotN * 9) 79390 - Final Fantasy Tactics vs. Dance Dance Revolution * 10) 81584 - Super Mario 64 vs. Nights * Top 10 Least Popular Polls without an Extra PotD (by vote totals) 1) 73642 - Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life 2) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WW vs. Skies of Arcadia 3) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga 4) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4 5) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom 6) 86418 - Earthbound vs. Doom 7) 90152 - Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts 8) 90307 - Chrono Trigger vs. Secret of Mana 9) 91106 - Phantasy Star vs. Contra 10) 95108 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes --- Current Score: 25/28 (through MP vs Half-Life) ?????/????? with ???? other people A WINNER of Trivia 12 |
| From: cyko | Posted: 5/1/2004 4:03:13 PM | Message Detail |
Top 10 Highest Individual Votes 1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda 2) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7 3) 86938 - Final Fantasy 4) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP 5) 82903 - Legend of Zelda: OOT 6) 79257 - Super Mario World 7) 78387 - Sonic 2 8) 71697 - Chrono Trigger 9) 70520 - Super Metroid 10) 70294 - Final Fantasy 3/6 Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes 1) 4686 - Adventure 2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes 3) 12256 - Pitfall 4) 12375 - Nights * 5) 13150 - Fallout 2 6) 13197 - Metal Gear * 7) 14144 - Phantasy Star 4 8) 14504 - Panzer Dragoon Saga * 9) 15401 - Suikoden 2 10) 18028 - The Simpsons Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes) 1) 56258 - Halo 2) 48444 - Duck Hunt 3) 44532 - Soul Calibur 4) 42314 - Street Fighter 2 5) 37127 - Earthbound 6) 35930 - Perfect Dark 7) 35513 - Phantasy Star 8) 32288 - Half-Life 9) 29381 - Pokemon G/S/C 10) 27130 - River City Ransom Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes) 1) 40495 - Xenogears * 2) 40813 - Castlevania: SotN * 3) 41354 - Metroid Prime 4) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts 5) 48587 - Donkey Kong 6) 49291 - Doom 7) 49837 - Metroid * 8) 52745 - Metal Gear Solid * 9) 54390 - Super Mario RPG 10) 55593 - Contra Top 10 Least Impressive Winners without an Extra PotD (by votes) 1) 41354 - Metroid Prime 2) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts 3) 48587 - Donkey Kong 4) 49291 - Doom 5) 54390 - Super Mario RPG 6) 55593 - Contra 7) 56544 - Legend of Zelda: WW 8) 56631 - Starcraft 9) 57674 - Pong 10) 66124 - Tetris Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner) 1) still, no data yet..... ever......... bleh....... 2) 3) 4) 5) Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner) 1) no data yet...... hopefully soon......... please.......... 2) 3) 4) 5) * = shared PotD with GameRiot or ESPN or FFXI poll --- Current Score: 25/28 (through MP vs Half-Life) ?????/????? with ???? other people A WINNER of Trivia 12 |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/1/2004 4:59:34 PM | Message Detail |
| I agree with your points cyko as far as Gordon & Shadow are concern, but not for Zero. Granted he looks cool, but unlike the cases of the other two, Zero very well known. How so, Mega Man's performances speak more than anything. I'm certain there are very few MM fans who haven't played any of the MMX games & if you played any one in the series, then you know who Zero is. If anything, his looks got votes from people who don't play MM, yet hate or have no opinion of Sonic. |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 5:19:48 PM | Message Detail |
| Zero? he almost beat Sonic because he was one of the coolest looking characters in the contest. I disagree, Zero had his own series getting underway with MMZ already out not to mention him playing a big role in the MMX series. His looks isn`t what got him that close to Sonic, it was his own popularity. He had the looks to go with it, but by no means did that win him his matches and get him close to Sonic. He was already very popular before coming into the contest, so seeing him do that well isn`t surprising. Also note how Sonic isn`t exactly keeping up with everyone anymore, his Legendary status along with name recognition can only win him so many matches. That`s why I think if Zero has to face him again next year he`ll end up winning not to mention Ganondorf and Magus who are already stronger than Zero and ranked extremely close to Sonic. Simply put, Sonic isn`t lasting in the Noble Nine much longer. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: Tarrot | Posted: 5/1/2004 5:24:52 PM | Message Detail |
| Cyko: You need to asterisk all your polls from now on. With the poll being under the advertisement, it's causing a detrimental effect, as seen by WW/SoA and MP/HL getting such low vote totals, as well as today with FFTA/FE. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/1/2004 5:28:43 PM | Message Detail |
| Either
that, or we'll be forced to include Magus, Ganondorf, Tidus, Zero and
Aeris in that select club. Come to think of it, the margin between
Sonic and Magus is really small, much smaller than between Aeris and
the next tier. The idea of a Noble Nine worked really well in 2002,
since it was Aeris who came in tenth place, with 43% against Snake, one
of the weak links of the Noble Nine along with Sonic. Now, with Magus,
Ganondorf and Zero being exceptional rookies, as well as Tidus and
Aeris moving up in ranks (whatever Creativename may say)... And yes, I know Shadow ranked ahead of Zero and Aeris, but I still think it was a fluke and that he would lose narrowly to Bowser or Squall in a direct match (at least, before Sonic Heroes and Sonic Battle). Now, for Vice City. I can see Vice City beating SSBM. I can see SSBM beating FF10. But I CANNOT see for the life of me FF10 losing to Vice City. It depends on how SSBM stacks up to both games, which is absolutely unknown. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 023/028 --- Matches: 23/28 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FFTA |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 5/1/2004 6:12:59 PM | Message Detail |
| Now,
for Vice City. I can see Vice City beating SSBM. I can see SSBM beating
FF10. But I CANNOT see for the life of me FF10 losing to Vice City. It
depends on how SSBM stacks up to both games, which is absolutely
unknown. I agree completely, Slow. Heck, it wouldn't make sense for GTA:VC to beat FF10 just because of the nominations. The real quirks in the system were caused by cultists (Earthbound), systems lacking a solid library of games (Phantasy Star, Halo), or systems having too many games to choose from (every PC game). None of these conditions applies to either of these games (the latter two couldn't, considering that the games are on the same system) so I'd say that FFX is easily more popular around here than VC. It's SSBM that is the unknown factor in the triad. FFX > VC, but nothing useful is known that could compare SSBM to FFX or VC directly. SSBM may even suffer from a lesser version of Halo syndrome, while VC has games crosscutting its fanbase all over the place, as I outlined thousands of posts ago in the pre-season discussion. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 27/28, Next Winner: Final Fantasy Tactics Advance |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:21:16 PM | Message Detail |
| Simply put, Sonic isn`t lasting in the Noble Nine much longer. i will agree that this summer sonic could fall again... ...but i still think he's got a free pass to the third round. that alone should establish him as a top-level competitor...considering the group is called the noble nine... I agree completely, Slow. Heck, it wouldn't make sense for GTA:VC to beat FF10 just because of the nominations. The real quirks in the system were caused by cultists (Earthbound), systems lacking a solid library of games (Phantasy Star, Halo), or systems having too many games to choose from (every PC game). by that logic super metroid would beat link to the past. ...let us hope that it is sound... --- signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:24:45 PM | Message Detail |
| I
disagree on the nomination things. Exactly because of SM/LttP, which
will probably go in favor of LttP (though this just might be the battle
for the entire division). But I just get the feeling the Squareheads are just too strong to be downed by Vice City, no matter how popular it is. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 023/028 --- Matches: 23/28 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FFTA |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:30:30 PM | Message Detail |
| i will agree that this summer sonic could fall again... ...but i still think he's got a free pass to the third round. that alone should establish him as a top-level competitor...considering the group is called the noble nine... A free pass to Round 3? He had to face Zero in Round 2, in which he almost lost, and then had another close encounter with Aeris. So, if he has to face a strong person who gets a bad seeding then yes he could fall before Round 3, however, I can`t put my finger on someone new who would be able to come in and beat Sonic. Though, I`d venture to say that he won`t be making the Elite 8 this year unless he`s in a division with absolutely no competition other than the 1 or 2 seed (I think he belongs a 3 seed myself). And Sonic isn`t really someone who seems to jump out as a top competitor. He got to the Elite 8 last year but really, there are more than a couple of people waiting to take his spot. I think it all comes back to his Legendary status and name, he`ll only be able to rely on those so long before someone comes along like Zero, Ganondorf, or Magus to take him down. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:49:12 PM | Message Detail |
| i think zero was a fluke, though. he should have had a higher seed. no else did that well against the "noble nine." ...except for shadow, who was basically sonic in black trunks for those matches. i would rank sonic as a #2 seed. ranking snake ahead of him just...looks wrong. but if he does get a #3 seed...then i guess he might lose early. the chances would be much greater for another fluke to happen in that position... --- signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:51:30 PM | Message Detail |
| I'd tend to think Sonic's position is pretty much set in stone due to his status... what makes you think that? ...wait a minute, I'm talking to someone who thinks Mario can fill a 14-point gap in 12 months with mere Mario Kart and Mario Party titles. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 023/028 --- Matches: 23/28 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FFTA |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:53:16 PM | Message Detail |
| Zero most likely wasn't a fluke... Scorpion's position didn't change much. There are reasons to believe Shadow is though. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 023/028 --- Matches: 23/28 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FFTA |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:53:49 PM | Message Detail |
| i think zero was a fluke, though. he should have had a higher seed. no else did that well against the "noble nine." ...except for shadow, who was basically sonic in black trunks for those matches. A fluke? How do you figure someone like Zero to be a fluke? Honestly, I think he`ll perform even better this year than he did last year with him already getting another good entry into his series. And Ganondorf, Magus, Zero, Shadow, and Tidus were all on the same level as Sonic last year so to say Zero was the only one would be false. They would all be expected to get around the area that Sonic got on Cloud. i would rank sonic as a #2 seed. ranking snake ahead of him just...looks wrong. but if he does get a #3 seed...then i guess he might lose early. the chances would be much greater for another fluke to happen in that position... By strength, Sonic needs a 3 seed especially considering Snake got Twin Snakes this year to help him. It won`t send him through the roof but he was stronger than Sonic last year and that`ll just push him farther away in this coming year. Sonic isn`t up for a 2 seed anymore if you ask me, and would work nicely as a 3 seed. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 7:57:31 PM | Message Detail |
| I'd tend to think Sonic's position is pretty much set in stone due to his status... what makes you think that? That`s what I was kind of saying, he`s pretty much set while someone like Zero, Magus, or Ganondorf could come along and knock him off. It wouldn`t surprise me in the least to see it happen this year. Especially someone like Zero who is bound to increase with his Mega Man Zero games. ...wait a minute, I'm talking to someone who thinks Mario can fill a 14-point gap in 12 months with mere Mario Kart and Mario Party titles. Shut up. =P Its either him or Mega Man for my winner next year, so one of them better fill that gap. ;) Then again I don`t think Cloud or Sephiroth will be as strong as they were this year, just my little prediction though. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:00:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Except Zero and Ganondorf are quite established themselves, and while Ganondorf isn't far, Zero's still got a bit of road to go. Magus... it's thought that he NEEDS a new game, and the day he gets it, he becomes an instant contender for the championship. But until then, a match with Sonic would still be a crapshoot (with Sonic as very slight favorite), if we base ourselves on SC2K3 stats. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 023/028 --- Matches: 23/28 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FFTA |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:03:18 PM | Message Detail |
| For
the record, I really am trying to win one of these contests so don`t
think me putting Mario or Mega Man as a winner throw you off as me just
picking who I want. I just figure one of these years one of them is
bound to win when people don`t expect it. =) --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:06:48 PM | Message Detail |
| Yeah, I`d agree with that for the most part. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:08:36 PM | Message Detail |
| ...it seems i've miscommunicated. i did not mean that zero's performance was a fluke. he got a high score against both scorpion and sonic. i meant that it was a fluke that he got a #7 seed. under normal circumstances, someone strong enough to do that well against sonic would not meet him until the third round. it's unlikely even if he gets a #3 seed...and almost impossible if he gets a #2 seed. --- signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads. |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:18:05 PM | Message Detail |
| Ah, yeah, I see what your saying now. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:26:55 PM | Message Detail |
| come to think of it...i wouldn't mind seeing sonic as a #3 seed. ...if samus was a #2 seed... ...and mario was a #1 seed... ...and they were all in the same division... --- signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:36:53 PM | Message Detail |
| Sonic's performance has only earned him a 3 seed, at best. --- ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:43:36 PM | Message Detail |
| That`s
what I was kind of saying, he`s pretty much set while someone like
Zero, Magus, or Ganondorf could come along and knock him off. It
wouldn`t surprise me in the least to see it happen this year.
Especially someone like Zero who is bound to increase with his Mega Man
Zero games I definately agree. The MMZ games have pretty much resparked my interest in the Megaman series overall & I know I'm not the only MM fan who feels this way. I'm fully expecting Zero's pics next year to be from MMZ. come to think of it...i wouldn't mind seeing sonic as a #3 seed. ...if samus was a #2 seed... ...and mario was a #1 seed... ...and they were all in the same division... In my pseudo bracket, I have Mario & Sonic in the same division as 1 & 2, with Snake as a 3. I would rather see a Sonic/Snake matchup instead of Sonic/Samus again. While that rematch would be fun, I couldn't see how Samus would lose now that she would have Prime & Fusion backing her, & Sonic Heroes leaving Sonic practically unchanged. Now Sonic/Snake, that's one people would be talking about for quite a while. |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:43:58 PM | Message Detail |
| Yes,
without a doubt he deserves a 3 seed. Seeing someone like Crono or
Snake getting it when they need and deserve a 2 seed would be the wrong
thing. But when you do that the best possible thing you could see is
Mario, Mega Man, and Sonic in the same division. Oh how that would be
cool. =P --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: Phediuk | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:45:42 PM | Message Detail |
| Match #28 Review: Woah. This match was a whole lot closer than I expected it to be. Evidently, Gordon Freeman=/=Half-Life. I think this match sets in stone Metroid Prime's loss in Round 2, unfortunately... Match #30 Preview: Just another boring match with an obvious winner. --- "Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle." -Toad in Super Mario Bros. |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:45:57 PM | Message Detail |
| I definitely enjoy the Mega Man Zero series, as well. =P Working on Zero 3 right now. Those are definitely some great games. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 5/1/2004 8:50:08 PM | Message Detail |
| just to interject - wth[i'm tired of f]. i go to the contest, with 3 hrs to go, and i see: TOTAL VOTES 61157 my memory not so good no more, so can i ask, isn't this extraordinarily low? at existing trends, this will be the least voted on poll of the contest. and in previous contests, didn't saturday polls get better turnout? |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/1/2004 9:05:35 PM | Message Detail |
| At
this exact same time Pokémon GSC vs Xenogears had 65687 votes total.
That was the least popular poll so far this contest and it got 4078
more than the current match. --- ''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...'' ''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...'' |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:01:10 PM | Message Detail |
| Slowflake: as well as Tidus and Aeris moving up in ranks (whatever Creativename may say)... I am really totally clueless on why you think Tidus increased in popularity. There is NOTHING to indicate this, and no way to explain it if it had happened :) Haste2: Vyse looked as bad as Bub. Vyse performed much better than Bub. Heroic Mario: Simply put, Sonic isn`t lasting in the Noble Nine much longer. I don't see what makes you say this. I don't really see any reason to still go with this "Noble Nine" stuff anyway, but Sonic will still be up there. Remember that there is still no way to decide a favorite in a Mario vs. Sonic match. torey luvullo: my memory not so good no more, so can i ask, isn't this extraordinarily low? at existing trends, this will be the least voted on poll of the contest. and in previous contests, didn't saturday polls get better turnout? It was expected that vote totals would go way down with the new layout. It's very sad too. It was looking like Final Fantasy VII vs. Ocarina of Time would probably break the 140,000 vote barrier, and very possibly the 150,000 vote barrier. Now there's no chance as long as the poll stays in its current position, and the current position looks permanent. It'll be lucky to get 125,000 votes now. This board has also suffered. Traffic seems significantly down. Probably because posters were lost in the same way that voters were lost. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: Starion | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:07:52 PM | Message Detail |
| Interesting.
How about a Samus/Snake battle? That sounds like a heated and close
match. Possibly Mario and Samus too although I have no idea how Mario
will perform against her. I don't know where to rank Mario. --- Sp2004 Score:22/25 Today's Pick: KH Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:11:15 PM | Message Detail |
| I
don't see what makes you say this. I don't really see any reason to
still go with this "Noble Nine" stuff anyway, but Sonic will still be
up there. Remember that there is still no way to decide a favorite in a
Mario vs. Sonic match. Well, I was under the idea that it was still considered didn`t know it had been thrown away or anything. >< Anyway, I was saying that with people like Zero, Ganondorf, and Magus I can easily see Sonic not being the 9th strongest anymore and giving that up to one of those three. As for the Mario vs. Sonic match, there`s two reasons why I could see Sonic making it close like it would be. 1. The 90`s ordeal with Nintendo vs. Sega; Mario vs. Sonic and 2. The fact that Mario nets anti-votes like mad. But yeah while there`s not a way to choose a favorite I`d end up picking Mario to win the match. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:14:15 PM | Message Detail |
| Evidence still points to Mario over Sonic. --- ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:16:26 PM | Message Detail |
| The
only real reason I could see Sonic getting close would be people having
that crappy disliking of Mario (anti-votes), otherwise, if it weren`t
for that I wouldn`t have a second thought about Sonic doing anything.
Then again, I`m expecting SMW to take care of Sonic 2 without having a
nailbiter. =) --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:17:32 PM | Message Detail |
| I
was thinking after all the buzz about "closer matches" this division
that people would start to underrate Final Fantasy X against Shenmue.
Turns out it was Final Fantasy Tactics Advance that people started to
underestimate, as a lot of people lowered their predictions in the
Oracle challenge for it. Now it seems that people are upping their
Final Fantasy X picks after a trend towards lowering them. Which is
what they should be doing; the performance of Half-Life has nothing to
do with Final Fantasy X vs. Shenmue, nor did it have anything to do
with Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem. The only upside Shenmue has, is that perhaps Soul Calibur's performance was indicative of high Dreamcast strength. But there's just no way I could see Final Fantasy X getting less than 80% here. My inital prediction of 87% seems too high, and I'm debating whether to change it to 84%-85%...but I'd be pretty surprised to see anything lower than 82% here. I'm thinking that after tomorrow, Final Fantasy X will become the clear-cut favorite to win the division, similar to what A Link to the Past did. Wind Waker/Metroid Prime would be taking the role of Chrono Trigger. Chrono Trigger was a massive favorite, but now more people seem to think A Link to the Past will win that division after their respective first round performances, though it's highly debated. Final Fantasy X was one of the favorites, but Wind Waker/Metroid Prime/SSBM--especially Wind Waker--got a lot of support too. Final Fantasy X was picked a lot more than A Link to the Past beforehand, and I think it's bump will be similar; A Link to the Past went from big underdog to slight favorite, and I think Final Fantasy X will go from one of the favorites to becoming a large favorite. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:22:35 PM | Message Detail |
| I
think Shenmue will do about as well as SoA, actually. FFX is probably
the second or third highest hate gainer in the FF series and while I'm
not saying Shenmue gets a lot of love there isn't all that much hate
for it either. Just a whole lot of apathy. I can see Shenmue getting at
least 25% though, maybe a tiny bit more. If it got less than 20% I'd
actually be surprised. --- ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:26:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Evidence still points to Mario over Sonic No, not really. According to the extrapolated standings Sonic finished well ahead of Mario in 2K2, and well behind him in 2K3; but the volatility between those comparisons is high enough not to be able to know about a future Sonic vs. Mario match. While Sonic finished significantly behind Samus in 2K3, Samus=Sonic could still very well hold, and Samus vs. Mario would be a total toss-up. Sonic vs. Mario would probably be a total toss-up as well. The only real reason I could see Sonic getting close would be people having that crappy disliking of Mario (anti-votes), otherwise, if it weren`t for that I wouldn`t have a second thought about Sonic doing anything Sonic vs. Mario is unclear because you cannot say which is more popular. It has nothing to do with outside factors. If you believe in the Mario cheating factor, then he'd be the favorite; but outside of that there is nothing that says either would have an advantage. And even if you think that Sonic would do only a couple percentage points better than Shadow, we know that year-to-year volatility is high enough to overcome a 53%-54% loss. Then again, I`m expecting SMW to take care of Sonic 2 without having a nailbiter I think it might win with a cushion as well, but that doesn't really say much about the characters facing each other. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:31:07 PM | Message Detail |
| That
reminds me while your here, what did you use to get those stats? Just
wondering, because I was talking with MWIS earlier and he was wanting
to know what you did to get those. He had a way of doing it and his
percentages ranged from .50% to a 4% increase from yours. His way also
had Magus at 33.80% and Sonic at 33.79%. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:47:34 PM | Message Detail |
| The way I did it was with percentage ratios (or vote ratios, same thing). For instance: *Cloud got 76199 vs. Link's 71438. Magus got 38747 vs. Link's 72188. So he'd be expected to get 38747/72188*71438 against Link, or 33.48%. Note that this is actually NOT quite the way it should be done. If you take each character's performance in a vote as a Uniform random variable according to some "popularity" figure, it would be slightly different. I just figured this out a week ago. For that way, you go by the mean of the Uniform variable. For instance, say one character has a mean of 1. Another has a mean of .6. The character with a mean of 1 would be expected to get 70% of the votes there--70%-30%-40%=1-.6. This is because for the "first" .6, the votes are 50/50; but if the first character gets anything above .6, he wins. So going by Link's performance against Cloud, assuming Cloud has a value of 1, Link has a value of .968 (twice his % against Cloud). Magus has a value of .6986 against Link's 1. So he has a value of .6986*.968 against Cloud, because transitivity is linear when dealing with Uniform variables. He'd be expected to get 33.8% against Cloud. I think this might be identical to the way that others did it, though the difference would only matter for jobbers. I have to see which way results in more consistent popularity values across years, but it probably doesn't make matter too much. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:47:55 PM | Message Detail |
| The 2k2 results are obviously screwy for a lot of stuff. 2k3 seems to be much more "normal". --- ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:52:30 PM | Message Detail |
| Thanks for that creative. Turns out that`s exactly the way MWIS was doing it. =) --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:54:52 PM | Message Detail |
| you
really think the new site layout layout lowered the votes that much? I
don't see how it could, but there really isn't too much else it could
be I suppose... --- Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/1/2004 10:57:49 PM | Message Detail |
| Yes,
it looks like the Uniform R.V. way gives the same results as the
"multiplying percentages" way that others used. I thought doing it
geometrically through % ratios was more valid theoretically, but that
appears not to be the case. Doing Magus=.4839*.3493*2 is the way others
would've done it, and that appears to be identical to the Uniform R.V.
way. I thought my way made more sense, but it does not. Don't know when I'll get around to changing my sheet though. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:21:03 AM | Message Detail |
| Well, as of now FFX is managing 70% against Shenmue. --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:25:31 AM | Message Detail |
| Yes...I couldn't have been more wrong about this. There goes my idea that Final Fantasy X would be a heavy favorite after this match. I have been completely PWNed by the power of Dreamcast games. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: Starion | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:27:13 AM | Message Detail |
| It's still a little early. Besides, Soul Calibur won on its franchise strength and availability on multiple platforms. --- Sp2004 Score:26/29 Today's Pick: FFX Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:32:38 AM | Message Detail |
| Besides, Soul Calibur won on its franchise strength and availability on multiple platforms. I'm starting the question that. There are 3 Dreamcast games in the contest, all 3 did better than expected. Isn't it more likely that we just underestimated the Dreamcast? --- ''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...'' ''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...'' |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:35:19 AM | Message Detail |
| Another
thing to note is the Wind Waker vs. Metroid Prime in the PotD. Wind
Waker seems to have a good lead, and won`t lose it, so does this
further help out the idea that Wind Waker will win? --- NintendoŽ - The Beginning and the End Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting peace! |
| From: Starion | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:35:36 AM | Message Detail |
| Maybe.
But now that I think about it, didn't the other Dreamcast games also
appear in other systems? Skies of Arcadia was ported to the Gamecube. I
also recall Shenmue being ported to another console. I think it was
either the PS2 or the Xbox. You may also have to factor in the Sega fans. --- Sp2004 Score:26/29 Today's Pick: FFX Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:47:00 AM | Message Detail |
| Shenmue 2 is on the XBox. That isn't exactly a huge help. --- ''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...'' ''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...'' |
| From: creativename | Posted: 5/2/2004 12:51:44 AM | Message Detail |
| Shenmue 2 is on the XBox. There's a Shenmue 2?! On XBox? WTF? I had NO idea. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| Jump to Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |